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As the world still isolates, social distances and stays at home – the concerns about the economy are always top of mind. Jobs, investments and paying bills are a daily topic at home and in the media. The initial spin that there’s nothing to worry about as whatever was lost is bound to bounce back once we’re back to normal is starting to fade. No one knows when that bounce back will start and the idea of back to normal, what it will look like and when is at best a guess for anyone. Public health experts are beginning to make predictions about when coronavirus infection rates will peak. Economists are calculating when the cost of continuing to shutter restaurants, shopping malls and other businesses — a move that has already pushed some 10 million Americans into unemployment, with millions more on the way — will outweigh the savings from further efforts to slow the virus once the infection curve has flattened out. Government officials are setting competing targets. President Trump has pushed his expected date of reopening the economy to the end of April. “We have to get back to work,” he said in a briefing on Saturday. “We have to open our country again. We don’t want to be doing this for months and months and months. We’re going to open our country again. This country wasn’t meant for this.” Some governors have set much more conservative targets, like Ralph Northam of Virginia, who canceled the remainder of the school year and imposed a shelter-at-home order through June 10. Other states, like Florida, only recently agreed to shut activity down but have set more aggressive targets — April 30, in the case of the Sunshine State — to restart it. April 06 – New York Times So when will it be back, what’s lost forever and how long to recover are the million-dollar questions. And if you are a journalist covering America’s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic – then let us help with your stories. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Drinking alcoholic beverages may be more appealing amid unease about the coronavirus, as people deal with shelter-at-home orders, fears about the economy and boredom, says a Baylor University researcher who studies alcohol use and misuse. But with regulations providing less access to alcohol, this may be a good time for individuals struggling with alcohol use to begin recovery and for others to guard against over-relying on alcohol or other substances. When bars and restaurants began closing — other than for such options as pickup, delivery or drive-through — liquor stores saw a surge in business, according to news reports. But Pennsylvania closed its liquor stores — some people defied stay-at-home orders and drove to liquor stores in neighboring states — and New Hampshire recently closed some of its liquor stores, according to reports. Other states who deemed the businesses “essential” also may take another look at the issue. How to grapple with the risks of substance use and misuse during this stressful time is the subject of this Q&A with Sara Dolan, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at Baylor University, who has done extensive research on substance use and misuse. Q: There are memes — some of them humorous — going around about heavy alcohol use during quarantine. Why might people be drinking more than usual? DOLAN: People have many different motivations for drinking, and I think self-isolation amplifies some of those. First, people drink to feel good. For some, being out of the normal work routine may feel like a time to let loose. People also drink to feel less bad. It would be normal to feel out of sorts now that we are social distancing. It also would be normal to feel some boredom, and certainly we feel anxiety and uneasiness about our current circumstances. Alcohol may be seen by some as a way to cope with those negative feelings. Q: How might the “new normal” be especially hard for alcoholics? Could this be a time to begin recovery? Some may be social distancing from drinking buddies, although that wouldn’t stop drinking alone. DOLAN: A forced lack of access to alcohol through social distancing and bars being closed can be a great jumping-off point for someone to begin recovery, especially when people are physically distancing from the people they drink or use with. But this can be an especially tough time for people because they may not be able to cope with all the new stressors, especially if they don’t have access to their typical means of coping. For example, for someone who usually relies on friends and family for support, social distancing can cause more stress. And loneliness is especially difficult when it is stacked on top of economic, illness and other anxieties we are experiencing. It is important for us to reach out, from a distance, to family and friends and other resources to help us cope positively so we don’t turn to drinking or other drug use to help us cope. I worry about people who are very heavy drinkers who suddenly stop drinking. Alcohol withdrawal, which can happen when a very heavy drinker stops drinking suddenly, can be very dangerous. Symptoms include anxiety, shakiness, sweatiness, headaches, nausea and even hallucinations – seeing and hearing things others don’t see or hear — and seizures. If someone who usually drinks very heavily and suddenly stops drinking experiences these symptoms, immediate medical attention is necessary. Q: What strategies would you suggest as far as dealing with heavy drinking during this time – both for drinkers and for those who love them? DOLAN: We really all need to be compassionate toward one another, regardless of our individual struggles. This is a difficult time for everyone – it is normal during a crisis like this to feel anxious and even depressed. Support is very important, both for those who are struggling and for those who seem like they are doing fine. This support can take a lot of different forms, from offering an ear to listen to offering specific strategies, such as mutual recovery groups (such as Alcoholics Anonymous, offered online) and other coping resources, like apps. Here is a list of just a few of the apps that may help people cope with stress: Breathe2Relax iChill Personal Zen Self-Help for Anxiety Management T2Mood Tracker The Mindfulness App - meditate Q: What about groups like Alcoholics Anonymous during this time, who because of guidelines against large gatherings may miss in-person support? DOLAN: There are quite a few digital resources to support recovery from alcohol and substance abuse. Here are just a few: Alcoholics Anonymous Narcotics Anonymous Smart Recovery Groups Al-Anon Recovery Groups for loved ones of those struggling with problematic alcohol use Q: Is there anything else you would like to add? DOLAN: We know that during times of crisis, rates of anxiety, depression and suicidal behaviors increase, and those feelings and behaviors can be exacerbated by heavier alcohol or drug use. Let’s do all that we can to care for those around us. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s oldest and largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and seven academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit www.baylor.edu/artsandsciences.
Will schools reopen before semester ends? Georgia Southern pandemic expert can give perspective
While education has moved into homes across the country because of the COVID-19 pandemic, people are wondering if the shutdowns will actually help stop the spread of the disease. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Ph.D., a digital health expert and infectious disease epidemiologist at Georgia Southern University, said school closures can delay the peak of the outbreak, reduce the amount of cases and decelerate the spread of the virus. Fung was a part of a study in 2015 that modeled a potential flu pandemic. The study showed that delaying the spread of a virus can give health care professionals more time to come up with vaccines and other treatments, as well as giving the system time to brace itself for the onslaught of patients. “The key message of my paper is not necessarily how quickly we shut down schools,” Fung told Rolling Stone. “It is the duration of school closure that matters. Whenever we relax social distancing measures, we will see a bounce-back of the cases, unless we are able to completely block all transmission chains and have driven the case number to zero — i.e., extinction of the virus, as in the case of SARS in 2003.” While some think opening schools and other public places would benefit the economy, Fung said doing so could leave the country vulnerable. “To save the U.S. economy, we must control this disease first,” Hung said to Rolling Stone. “That is what China is going to achieve — even if they have already suffered a great deal economically due to COVID-19. That is why (Narendra) Modi asks the whole of India to stay home for three weeks. That is also what Boris Johnson asks the British people to do now. The Americans should take heed.” Fung analyses social media data for public health surveillance and health communication and uses digital technologies for public health interventions. He investigates the transmission of communicable diseases with a focus on respiratory infections and environmentally transmitted infections. He applied a variety of methods, from classical statistical methods to machine learning and mathematical modeling, to address public health problems and to provide solutions to policymakers. He is especially interested in assisting public health agencies in their responses to public health emergencies. Fung is available to speak with media regarding this topic — simply reach out to Georgia Southern Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview.
Are Home Prices in Peril? FAU Expert Says Coronavirus Stimulus May Hold the Key
The United States housing market faces its biggest threat in more than a decade, and whether home prices can withstand the new coronavirus pandemic largely depends on an effective stimulus package, said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist in Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed a historic $2 trillion stimulus to boost a battered U.S. economy, and getting the aid exactly right is the key to avoiding the first sustained setback to home prices since the end of the housing boom in 2006, according to Johnson. “If the stimulus package ends up being more than we need, this will almost certainly trigger a non-trivial amount of inflation in the economy, which will increase mortgage rates, which, in turn, will place downward pressure on housing prices,” Johnson said. “If the stimulus is not sufficient enough to hold down unemployment and it increases the likelihood of mortgage default, mortgage rates will rise and put downward pressure on housing prices. Only if the stimulus is just right will increasing inflation and higher unemployment be held in check.” Fixed rates for 30-year mortgages rose from 3.29 percent on March 5 to 3.65 percent on March 19, before moving down to 3.5 percent last week as the stimulus gained momentum. The higher rates are an indication that investors are factoring in inflation and the higher likelihood of default, though the recent downward trend suggests that it was the threat of rising default probabilities that was having the bigger impact on mortgage rates, according to Johnson. Since bottoming in March 2012, U.S. home prices rose 61 percent over the next seven and a half years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. The nation’s housing market rebounded from a devastating downturn when investors started renovating and reselling properties after buying them at deep discounts. The market has been robust ever since, but Zillow Group recently suspended its home-buying program as a result of the pandemic and how it may affect the housing market. The move means Zillow is worried that housing prices are at risk, according to Johnson. If mortgage rates were to climb from 3.5 percent to 5 percent, it would result in a 43 percent increase in the interest portion of a housing payment, dramatically reducing the purchasing power for consumers. “Only time will tell here,” Johnson said. “We are in uncharted waters, making it difficult to tell when and if we got the stimulus package right.” If you are a journalist covering how real estate and property values are being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic – then let our experts help. Ken Johnson is the associate dean and Investments Limited professor in the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University. Ken is available to speak to media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview and time.
Op Ed: In coronavirus crisis, Don't prioritize economics over public health
The following is an excerpt from Op Ed that ran in the Detroit Free Press late last week. Th full piece is attached below for your reading pleasure. President Donald Trump said this week that he hopes to see economic activity ramped up and social distancing practices and other public health measures reduced by Easter, which is April 12. This is a recipe for disaster and it again vividly illustrates his dismissal of medical and scientific expertise for his own political goals. The rhetoric he uses suggests that the financial pain the nation will experience over the next year or longer is not worth the lives that will be lost as a result of dialing back public health restrictions. I am an ethicist. To me, Trump is forcing Sophie’s Choice decisions by people who have taken an oath to “first do no harm.” Trump and his advisers ignore the ethical pain that health professionals will have to endure who must decide who lives and who dies because we have too few ventilators or too few ICU beds to treat all the patients who need those beds for survival. Those harsh choices are very real right now. They would become even more tragic if public health measures now in place were loosened in order to improve economic activity. March 27 - Detroit Free Press There are many angles to explore and cover as the COVID-19 pandemic impacts just about every segment of American life. If you're a journalist covering the ethics involved and the leadership decisions taking place at each level of government, then let our experts help. Leonard M. Fleck is the Director of the Center for Ethics at Michigan State University. He is an expert in the areas of health care justice and served as a member of the Clinton Administration’s Health Care Reform Task Force in 1993 and as a state ethicist for Michigan regarding access to health care. Dr. Fleck is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
What fate awaits Florida’s tourism industry?
As the ripples from the COVID-19 pandemic stretch across all of America – popular attractions like Disney are closed, airlines are restricting travel and borders are being shut. All of this could amount to economic freefall for a state like Florida that relies on the more than 126 million tourists that visit the state each year injecting more than $40 billion annually into the economy. The coronavirus is hitting the economy in Central Florida hard, with several counties missing out on millions due to conventions and events being canceled. Orange County officials said the county has lost more than $280 million due to conventions being canceled amid fears of the coronavirus, and it could lose even more. Several Central Florida cities and counties have declared states of emergency. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency. Channel 9 spoke with financial advisers on the impacts the coronavirus could have on Central Florida. “Because we are highly reliant on tourism and leisure, we could see a potential financial slowdown in Central Florida. The scope and magnitude will be dependent on how long it takes to peak and level out. We are already seeing the effects with the closure of theme parks, cruises, flights, professional sports,” said Dale Crossley, a financial adviser. March 13 – ABC News At the moment, it seems there is no end in sight and for the hotels, theme parks and countless other destinations and small business that rely on tourists to stay afloat, there’s concern about who will be left standing once life returns to normal, or at least a new normal. There are a lot of questions that remain: How long can the marquee destinations like Disney and Universal Resorts remain closed? Are there any substantial bailouts or government assistance to be expected? Once travel resumes, what will it take to assure visitors of their safety? And, can we expect incentives from industry or the government to lure people, and their wallets back to the Sunshine State and what will they look like? If you are a journalist looking to cover this angle of the COVID-19 pandemic – then let us help. Peter Ricci is a clinical associate professor and director of the Department of Marketing and Hospitality Management in FAU’s College of Business. He is a hospitality industry veteran with more than 20 years of managerial experience in segments including food service, lodging, incentive travel, and destination marketing. Peter is available to speak with media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Expert available to discuss how economic impact of COVID-19 may vary across the country
Retailers such as Macy’s, Nordstrom and Urban Outfitters have announced they will temporarily shutter stores and car maker Honda will close six U.S. plants for a week. Earlier, in-person service at restaurants and bars was ceased. R. Andrew Butters, assistant professor of business economics and public policy at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, cautions against making general assessments about COVID-19’s economic impact across the country. “Assessing the economic impacts of this pandemic -- and the range of policy responses enacted -- or being considered; however, might be harder to predict and have the potential to be even more uneven. For instance, take the most recent response of closing in-person dining at bars, and restaurants after the first confirmed death in Indiana was announced on Monday. Citing the of example restaurants, “According to the most recent economic census data, on the dimension of annual sales per capita coming from restaurants and other eating establishments, the state of Indiana is less dependent on this sector of the economy than other neighboring states Illinois and Ohio, that have enacted similar responses. On this particular dimension, one could view the economy of Indiana being somewhat insulated relative to its Midwest neighbors. “In sectors like airline travel and hotels, net bookings are down across the board -- and at unprecedented levels. How long travelers stay at home will have a lasting impact on the distribution of foregone revenues experienced at restaurants, bars, and hotels across the country. “An empty seat, or hotel room, contributes zero to GDP. This is especially true in a country like the US, as the demands for air travel and lodging vary across different parts of the country. Some areas of the country with peaks in demand over the spring months (e.g. Arizona and Florida) are likely to be especially vulnerable. Other areas with peaks in travel and recreational demand later in the year, (e.g., some areas of New York and Minnesota) might be less impacted, if the health concerns of travel are mitigated over the next couple of months. “There are many factors one can point to as contributors to a sharp rebound in economic activity, after the impact of the health concerns of the virus are subdued. These factors include the current personal savings and unemployment rates. As more varied -- and reflective -- economic and financial data comes in from areas affected by the global supply chain/consumption disruptions created by this virus (see, e.g., Brave-Butters-Kelley Business Cycle Indices and National Financial Conditions Index), it will be imperative that public policy makers work in concert with the most recent assessments of the depth and duration of this crisis to ensure the stabilization of local and national economies.” Butters can be reached at 812-855-5768 (o), 630-699-4868 and rabutter@indiana.edu.
COVID-19, cancellations and closings -- What do business owners need to know?
It might feel like 2008, but it’s not. “Expect coronavirus fears and behavioral changes from consumers to cause a sudden recession, but it won’t last long,” says Phil Powell, Indiana University Kelley School of Business associate dean of academic programs in Indianapolis and clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy. “I expect the economy will bounce back fairly quickly, and we could see some normalcy in the economy and the markets by May or June." Powell can speak to what business owners and consumers should know and do – and the economic impact of cancellations. If you would like to speak with Powell, please contact Teresa Mackin at tmackin@iu.edu or 317-274-2233.
Professor Barry Branch, Ledbetter Professor of the Practice at Scheller College of Business was a featured author in the article “National Rent Report for January 2020 Shows Growing Number of Renters” in the online magazine RENTCafe. Branch discussesd national trends that are leading more young people to rent rather than purchase a single-family home. “Young professionals are increasingly attracted to multifamily projects near their jobs. These buildings are attractive if they offer cutting edge technology that enables residents to work from home; attractive amenities that provide a healthy lifestyle and greater interaction with others; proximity to a variety of retail, food and entertainment attractions as well as public greenspaces; a significant reduction in their reliance on automobiles and access to public transportation; and greater flexibility to adjust to job changes and changes in their personal circumstances,” he said. In the piece he acknowledges the stable economy but notes that increased uncertainty in national, political, and economic environments may lead many people to resist the commitment to purchase a home. However, Branch points to the possibility that a larger demand for rental units may provide less inventory and therefore, an increase in rent prices. He states that “an offsetting factor among renters is the current trend towards rapidly increasing rental rates in many markets, which threatens their ability to manage their cost of living.” To offset these adverse factors, he cites low-interest rates that will incentivize developers to build more units and government programs for creating affordable housing as just a few factors that will continue to keep the rental market thriving. Are you a journalist looking to know more about this topic? Then let our experts help. Barry Branch is Sr. Professor of the Practice of Real Estate Development at Scheller College of Business, Georgia Institute of Technology. He is co-founder of The Branch-Shelton Company, LLC, a private investment management and financial advisory firm. Barry is available to speak with media regarding this important topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
It’s here and it’s time America got serious about Covid-19, known as coronavirus. The CDC is working overtime, and leading government health officials are scrambling to ensure hospitals are equipped, front-line health providers are ready and the public is informed. But with any emergency, there comes the risk of misinformation and unnecessary worry. As the new coronavirus outbreak becomes an ever-looming threat in the United States, state infectious disease specialists say the first step to staying safe is this: Remain calm. Also, don’t worry about buying a mask. “You really have to make sure you get the accurate information and not … ‘Lock your doors, close the windows, buy a generator and hope for the best,’” said Dr. Peter Gulick, an infectious disease expert at the Michigan State University's College of Osteopathic Medicine and director of the MSU Internal Medicine Osteopathic Residency program. That’s not only alarmist and bad advice, he said, it’s a waste of energy. The best advice — like these tips from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — is tried-and-true, Gulick said: Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. It’s especially important after using the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing. No soap and water? Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60 percent alcohol. Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands. Avoid close contact with people who are sick. If you’re sick, stay home. Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe. If you think you’ve come in contact with someone with the virus (there have been no confirmed cases yet in Michigan) contact your health provider immediately. February 26 – The Bridge Regrettably, that too can often lead to financial reactions that can ripple across the economy. Lately, the surging stock market has plunged with worries from investors and Wall Street about how America’s workforce will be impacted if the virus spreads. Friday ended the worst week the stock market has had since 2008. NBC News 6 sat down with the Dean of the Broad College of Business at Michigan State University, Sanjay Gupta, to talk more about the stocks and what to expect after this week. “The stock market is clearly spooked, and it has become nervous with whatever is going on in the business world,” said Gupta. What has ‘spooked’ the business world, is COVID-19. “The coronavirus is quarantined lots of factories, in fact the whole country,” said Gutpa. Gutpa says the halt in Chinese manufacturing also limits businesses and goods here in the United States. “In our day to day lives, either there will be some things that we count on that may not be available. It might be that the priciest of those things that we count on change, or go up dramatically because we are so dependent on a foreign source,” said Gutpa. February 29 – WLNS TV Covering an outbreak like Covid-19 isn’t easy, there are multiple angles to explore and it is vital that only the correct facts are shared by media to the millions of viewers, readers and listeners that are waiting for the latest information – and that’s where our experts can help. Sanjay Gupta is the Eli and Edythe L. Broad Dean of the Eli Broad College of Business. He is an expert in the areas of corporate and individual tax policy issues and finance. Peter Gulick is currently an associate professor of medicine at Michigan State University, College of Osteopathic Medicine, and serves as adjunct faculty in the College of Human Medicine and the College of Nursing. Both experts have already been sought out by the media for their expert insight on this issue – if you are interested in arranging an interview, simply click on either expert’s profile to arrange a time today.