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The link between corporate alliances and returns

Strategic alliances are agreements between two or more firms to pursue a set of agreed upon objectives while remaining independent organizations. Alliances are formed for a number of reasons, including licensing, marketing or distribution, development or research, technology transfer or systems integration, or some combination of the above. Tarun Chordia, R. Howard Dobbs professor of finance, and coauthors Jie Cao (Chinese U of Hong Kong) and Chen Lin (U Hong Kong) find evidence of return predictability across alliance partners. If the alliance partner or partners have high (or low) returns this month, then the firm has high (or low) returns over the next two months. Using a sample of alliances over the period 1985 to 2012, the authors find that a long-short portfolio sorted on lagged one-month returns of strategic alliance partners provides a return of over 85 basis points per month. This long-short portfolio return is robust to a number of specifications, including different adjustments for risk, controlling for different proxies for cross-autocorrelations, and excluding partnerships with customer-supplier relationships, as well as controls for industry returns. They theorize, “If investors are fully aware of the impact of strategic alliances on returns and pay attention to the firm-partner links, then the stock price of a firm should quickly adjust to price changes of its partners’ stocks.” The evidence suggests that investor inattention may be the source of a firm’s underreaction to its partners’ returns. Source:

Dubious loan origination and the housing collapse

Gonzalo Maturana, assistant professor of finance, and coauthor John M. Griffin (U of Texas) argue that securitization was not the only factor in the recent housing crisis. Their new research indicates that questionable mortgage origination practices played a significant role in the distortions in the 2003 to 2012 real estate boom and bust. Specifically, the underreporting of the true risk profiles of borrowers, including the misreporting of second-liens, helped to drive housing demand and, ultimately, contributed to the crisis. They note, “The process of underreporting key loan attributes can have the by-product of facilitating credit to borrowers who have little ability to repay.” The researchers tested their theory by using county deed records, securitized loan information, house price statistics, and home loan application data from a number of reliable sources to detail the 2003 to 2006 run-up of housing prices and its subsequent 2007 to 2012 collapse. After controlling for securitization, they determined that “originator malfeasance” in certain areas also served to raise the credit supply. Maturana and Griffin concluded that dubious originator practices helped to cause house prices in certain zip codes to increase relative to other areas and eventually led to larger price crashes. Source:

The impact of economic prosperity on CEO ethics

Prior research suggests that economic booms are associated with overconfidence and risk-taking. In a new paper, Emily Bianchi, assistant professor of organization & management, and coauthor Aharon Mohliver (London Business School) build on that research by showing that prosperous times are also associated with more ethical lapses. The authors examined whether CEOs were more likely to backdate their stock options during prosperous economic times. Backdating stock options was relatively common during the late 1990s to early 2000s. It was also unethical. A backdating CEO would receive a stock option grant on one day but report that the options were assigned on an earlier date when the stock price was lower. This would allow the CEO to realize greater gains when he or she sold the stock. Also, it required lying to the SEC and came at the expense of company profits. To test their theory, Bianchi and Mohliver looked at the backdating patterns of 2,139 CEOs of US publically traded companies between 1996 and 2005. They found that CEOs were more likely to backdate in good economic times. They also found that “CEOs who began their careers in prosperous times were more likely to backdate stock option grants later in their careers.” The findings indicate that economic prosperity influences the likelihood of corporate misconduct. Source:

Populations at risk – how the whole planet is feeling and affected by climate change

The pounding heat of this summer seems like an anomaly, but according to experts, extreme heat waves may be a new reality. The global temperature is rising and the impact of that is being felt on every continent on earth. From Pakistan, to Japan to Mexico to Paris – the rolling waves of summer heat saw temperatures soar. While for some it’s a matter of comfort, the world’s poor and vulnerable populations are going to face serious risk and consequences. For instance, high heat and erratic rainfall can exacerbate drought, and prolonged drought can lead to severe food insecurity and in some cases, famine. Desperation can lead to conflict and worse. The global threat of climate change is very real and will touch every corner of the planet. There are a lot of questions to be answered and that’s where the experts from Catholic Relief Services can help. Lori Pearson leads Catholic Relief Services’ response to the massive impact climate change is having on global agriculture and especially on the lives of smallholder farmers in Africa, Asia and Latin America. She also crafts policy and advocacy recommendations to climate change challenges and global hunger. Lori is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview. Source:

Risk and returns for private equity and venture capital funds

The early success of some well-known private equity and venture capital funds has led to their rapid growth. According to research from Narasimhan Jegadeesh, the Dean’s Distinguished Chair in Finance, Roman Kraussl (U of Luxembourg), and Joshua M. Pollet (U of Illinois), investors should carefully evaluate the future risk and return potential of this asset class and avoid investing primarily because of past successes. Some private equity indices compiled by the industry suggest that these funds offer bigger returns than the public equity market, but prior academic studies offer mixed evidence on performance. Jegadeesh and his coauthors devised a new approach to determine the actual risk and returns by using market prices of funds that primarily invest in unlisted PE and VC funds listed on several European stock exchanges. This approach has a distinct advantage because it uses publicly available market prices rather than self-reported data, which were previously used in other academic studies. Their findings indicate that unlisted PE and VC funds as an asset class are unlikely to yield extraordinary returns as suggested by some self-reported data. They may even yield about the same return as the stock market but are illiquid. Source:

Increased trading activity and declining returns

Improved trading technologies are changing the markets, facilitating the boom in algorithmic trading and the growth of hedge funds. Liquidity and trading volume continue to hit record levels. In a research study, Tarun Chordia, R. Howard Dobbs Professor of Finance, and coauthors Avanidhar Subrahmanyam (UCLA) and Tong Qing (Singapore Management U) analyzed whether or not increased liquidity and the trading activity of hedge funds has had an impact on financial market anomalies. Anomalies are return patterns that are inconsistent with the basic risk-return paradigm of finance. Increased arbitrage is a possible factor in attenuating the impact of anomalies, including momentum, reversals, accruals, etc. To find the link, Chordia and his coauthors studied proxies for arbitrage trading, including “the impact of the decline in the tick size due to decimalization and the impact of hedge fund assets under management, short interest, and share turnover.” The researchers referenced a wide sampling of equity market anomalies for more than three decades to show that increased liquidity and hedge fund trading activity did ultimately result in the decrease of the “economic and statistical significance of these anomalies.” Source:

Repo transactions and bank risk

In a research study from Edward Owens, assistant professor of accounting, and Joanna Shuang Wu (U of Rochester), the authors examine bank reporting of short-term borrowings in the repo market. Repo borrowings, otherwise known as sale and repurchase agreements, are essentially collateralized loans known for their short-term nature. The authors note that repo borrowings are typically associated with risky trading behavior, especially due to their opaque nature and role in the recent financial crisis. Owens and Wu found that current financial reporting requirements for banks might not adequately capture a full accounting of the risks associated with a bank’s repo liabilities. Specifically, end-of-quarter balance sheets may not correctly show the risk levels from repo borrowings exhibited throughout the quarter. The researchers analyzed quarter-end deviations in bank repo borrowings to better study the risk they represent. The primary research sample for the study was pulled from “13,548 bank-quarter observations across 573 unique publicly traded bank holding companies.” The authors attribute some of the deviation to what is termed “window dressing,” a step banks might take “to temporarily reduce the reported level of repo borrowings around quarter-end reporting dates.” Expected fluctuations in bank depositor and borrower activity around the end of the quarter did factor into the deviation as well. Source:

Supply network structure and systemic risk

Demand uncertainty can present a serious challenge for any business, especially when it comes to managerial decisions on inventory. But when an economic downturn happens, the challenge becomes systemic. According to research by Nikolay Osadchiy, assistant professor of information systems & operations management, and coauthors Vishal Gaur (Cornell U) and Sridhar Seshadri (Indian School of Business), systemic risk is more greatly felt depending on where a company sits in the supply chain. The trio discovered that while an economic downturn presented a serious hurdle for retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers alike, manufacturers were more prone to systemic risk given their placement upstream in the supply chain. Manufacturers had “a more dispersed customer base,” which the authors noted was more closely “associated with higher systematic risk.” Manufacturers also experienced greater systemic risk due to the effect of aggregation of orders over time. They wrote, “A market shock in one period may affect sales over several periods due to lead times and time lags in managerial decision making.” Source:

Are alternative investments right for the average person?

Given the risk, alternative investments were once considered only appropriate for the affluent and institutional investors. However, investment firms increasingly are offering alternative investment products, including mutual funds, ETFs, and private equity funds with strategies similar to hedge funds, to less affluent people. While average investors are responding eagerly to the move and forking over billions for alternative offerings, there are critics who argue that nontraditional assets are simply too risky for them. In a news article, Klaas Baks, associate professor in the practice of finance and executive director of the Center for Alternative Investment at Goizueta, offered his support of the investment strategy, while George Papadopoulos, a fee-only wealth manager, cautioned against it. Baks noted that alternative vehicles allow less affluent individuals to diversify their portfolios. Alternative investments also require minimal initial investment. Papadopoulos wrote that the risk and fees, as well as a lack of transparency and liquidity, were reasons to avoid nontraditional assets. In the article, Baks contended that all investments offer some risk but that alternative investments, when used correctly, also provide critical access to leverage. Source:

Make America Safe Again

Dear President Trump, In response to the numerous school shootings, Please re-consider your agenda and work to make the educational system safe for our children. Consider allocating funding to allow for the following: *The placement of police sub-stations in middle and high schools that are in at-risk neighborhoods and studying the effect of police presence on the culture of safety. *The creation of school-based mental health clinics run by nurse practitioners and social workers. This will allow at risk and troubled youth to have immediate access to interventions and services. *The ability for community-based researchers to work pro-actively with schools to creatively solve the issue at the local level. Pass federal legislation addressing the minor consent to treat laws for mental health issues. In Washington State, where I live and practice, minors over the age of 13 can consent to mental health treatment without parental consent. The goal isn’t to take the healthcare decision making authority away from parents, the goal is to get youth the help they need before something tragic happens. Appoint a special task force or committee consisting of educators, healthcare providers, lawyers, social workers, and anyone else who directly works with at risk youth. I believe that the solutions will come from these committees. Submitted to POTUS May 19, 2018 Source: