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Indebted Chinese Real Estate Developer Could Become Systemic Risk
Recent speculation surrounding the property developer China Evergrande Group caused the S&P 500 to have its worst day since May. But what we should look out for is systemic risk, according to John Sedunov, PhD, associate professor of finance at Villanova University. Evergrande currently has the biggest debt out of all publicly traded real-estate management or development companies. “The big issue seems to be Evergrande’s ability to repay its debt. The bigger issue is a potential for systemic crises or contagion to unfold,” said Dr. Sedunov. Another possibility is that Beijing could allow Evergrande to default. “Evergrande is a large Chinese developer, and the Chinese government may allow it to fail. It owes a lot of money to financial institutions and other market participants,” says Dr. Sedunov. With these risks, assets were moved from stocks, oil and Bitcoin to much safer options. “What’s potentially at stake is a contagion event where institutions with large exposure to Evergrande experience distress or fail as a result of lost cash flows they are expecting from Evergrande. This scenario is exacerbated if the company is allowed to fail,” said Dr. Sedunov. Does this present any other future concerns? Per Dr. Sedunov, Evergrande’s collapse could also impact the housing market. “More at issue is also that the real estate sector in China looks to be quite overheated (and it may be here as well), and this could be a signal of a collapse in real estate values, which again can bleed back into the financial system,” he said.
Children Face Type 2 Diabetes Health Concerns After a Year at Home
Some children are facing health concerns after a year of attending school online. During the pandemic, research found cases of type 2 diabetes among children more than doubled. Lisa Diewald, MS, RD, LDN, Program Manager for the MacDonald Center for Obesity and Education weighed in on causes and potential prevention methods going forward. “We know that physical activity level, eating habits, weight status and other lifestyle factors play a significant role in the development of type 2 diabetes in adults and in children,” said Diewald. “Because of disruptions for many children in all four factors during the pandemic, (on top of pre-existing challenges), we are starting to see trickle-down health effects involving lifestyle-related chronic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes and children are not immune to these health effects.” Type 2 diabetes is related to obesity, exercise habits and diet. Children who struggle with weight may also have many social, genetic and environmental factors impacted by the accelerated risk seen through the pandemic. For example, the absence of healthy school meals while learning from home negatively impacted some children, as processed foods became replacements. Eating habits are also largely impacted by one’s mental state. “Like adults, children learn to cope with stress and anxiety in different ways. For some, this means reaching for comfort foods, which are often high in refined carbohydrates, saturated fat and sugar-all risk factors for T2 diabetes if consumed in excess,” said Diewald. “These foods can contribute to unhealthy weight gain, especially when physical activity is limited as well. The bad news is that it does not take a lot of weight gain to put a child who is already at risk at greater risk for diabetes.” But families should be aware of the good news that small changes can make a big difference and that prevention is possible. Diewald recommends a few small changes to alter a sedentary routine for parents and schools: • Build 1 minute brain breaks during the day for activity such as stretching or running up and down the stairs • Keep healthy snacks available and sugar sweetened snacks and drinks less visible • Create safe and walkable opportunities for children to add physical activity • Look for outdoor community sponsored activities that encourage physical activity that can provide safe and accessible physical activity opportunities Additional measures for parents to prevent the unhealthy coping with foods including working with children to make a list of fun alternative activities (unrelated to food) to do when boredom kicks in and posting in an accessible place in the home. Parents can act as role models and let children see that parents are working on more effective ways to cope as well. Though the risk of type 2 diabetes has been increasing during the past year, many factors can continually increase a person’s risk. These tips can provide the valuable tools for prevention in the future. “Teaching children healthier ways to cope with boredom and depression than eating are skills that can help for a lifetime, well beyond the pandemic,” said Diewald. To speak with Diewald, email mediaexperts@villanova.edu.
Aston Law School corporate governance experts launch new book on investor stewardship
Dr Daniel Cash and Robert Goddard co-wrote Investor Stewardship and the UK Stewardship Code: The Role of Institutional Investors in Corporate Governance The book will be relevant for an international audience of academics, regulators and policymakers in financial regulation, investment regulation and financial services It coincides with the publishing of the Stewardship Code 2020 signatories as part of a new regulatory code by the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) Two members of Aston Law School have released a new book around investor stewardship to coincide with a major milestone by the Financial Reporting Council (FRC). The FRC published the first main list of Stewardship Code 2020 signatories on 6 September 2021, after a round of reporting earlier this year. This milestone details who is following the Code and allows the regulator to focus on holding signatories to the articulated standards of stewardship and how it is reported. The new book by Dr Daniel Cash and Robert Goddard, Investor Stewardship and the UK Stewardship Code: The Role of Institutional Investors in Corporate Governance, provides a critical assessment of the development of the Stewardship Code 2020, which sets out principles regarding the role of institutional investors in corporate governance. It discusses how the regulatory framework for stewardship evolved before and after the financial crisis, and how that evolution resulted in the 2020 Code. It also critiques the Code from a practical and academic perspective, as well as evaluating the wider regulatory framework; in particular, the position of the FRC merging into the Audit, Reporting and Governance Authority (ARGA). Dr Daniel Cash, senior lecturer in law at Aston Law School, said: “The Stewardship Code is a big deal in British governance, and that is exactly what the book looks at. “It examines the history of the stewardship Codes and regulation in the UK, and uses this to critically examine the new 2020 Code. “That critical analysis leads into projections of how the Code may fare in the modern business environment, aspects that may affect its progression, and puts forward elements that can make the Code’s impact more substantial. “This important regulatory development will play a massive role in aligning the actions of investors with the wider societal needs in the new world being dominated by ESG concerns. “Stewardship Codes modelled on the UK’s original 2010 version have been introduced in numerous markets and, as such, the book will be relevant for an international audience of academics, regulators and policymakers in financial regulation, investment regulation and financial services.” You can buy a copy of Investor Stewardship and the UK Stewardship Code: The Role of Institutional Investors in Corporate Governance here.
Aston University researchers based in the College of Health and Life Sciences have been awarded a Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) project by Innovate UK, to bring its academic and scientific expertise to assist Catalent in the development of its Zydis® technology, the leading orally disintegrating tablet (ODT). The Zydis ODT fast-dissolve formulation is a unique, freeze-dried oral solid dosage form that disperses almost instantly in the mouth with no water required. It helps delivering treatments to patients and consumers who have difficulty swallowing conventional pills, or where rapid onset of action is desirable. The aim of the KTP partnership is to develop and prove an accurate predictive decision-making tool to pre-determine accurate levels of absorption enhancer for each Zydis product, potentially facilitating faster pharmaceutical development, improving efficiency, and reducing time to market. A Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) is a three-way collaboration between a business, an academic partner and a KTP Associate. The UK-wide programme helps businesses to improve their competitiveness and productivity through the better use of knowledge, technology and skills. Aston University is the leading KTP provider within the Midlands. Academic lead on the project is Professor Afzal Mohammed, who is also chair in Pharmacy in the College of Health & Life Sciences (HLS) and a member of the Aston Pharmaceutics Group (APG) at Aston University. Afzal said: “This is a great opportunity for us to share and translate our academic experience in cell based models, excipient and formulation characterisation to develop an evidence based predictive tool that has the potential to expedite product development at Catalent.” Ralph Gosden, head of Zydis product development at Catalan, added: "We are excited to be working with Aston University on this project. Their expertise in drug transportation, cell biology, data analysis and model cell line design, coupled with its world-class facilities means that together, we will be able to achieve significant improvements in efficiency, and accelerate new product development.” Professor Mohammed will be supported by other colleagues from the Aston Pharmaceutics Group, including, Dr Dan Kirby, who has experience in drug delivery and improving patient acceptability of dosage forms gained through original research; Dr Affiong Iyire who has research expertise in the formulation of drugs for pre-gastric absorption and innovative cell models; and Dr Raj Badhan, who is a pharmacokinetics expert with vast knowledge of in silico methods. The outcomes of the project will be integrated into Aston University’s curriculum through teaching case studies, thereby developing well equipped graduates.
A severe frost in Brazil has damaged coffee crops, prompting an increase in global coffee prices. According to Reuters, arabica coffee prices have surged to the highest level in almost seven years. "But coffee is grown all over the world, and smart coffee buyers will be able to adapt by finding new sources to replace the lost supply in Brazil," says Daniel Reichman, an associate professor anthropology at the University of Rochester. "Brazil’s losses will benefit coffee growers in places like Colombia and Central America." Reichman explains that the coffee market is segmented between large scale buyers that have sophisticated hedging strategies to deal with risk, and small scale roasters that might have a relationship with single farms. Reichman, who has researched the coffee-growing economies in both Central America and South America, wrote about "big coffee" in Brazil for The Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Anthropology. His upcoming book is titled Progress in the Balance: Mythologies of Development in Santos, Brazil. It's a study of political and economic transformations in the city of Santos, which has been the hub of the world coffee trade for more than a century.
There’s billions of dollars flowing into Georgia – and with that economic development, comes good paying jobs. It’s getting a lot of attention and that means news coverage on local, state and national levels. Recently, media have been looking for expert perspective and opinion on the economic boom – and to help with their questions, Georgia Southern University’s Michael Toma is the go-to expert for reporters looking to break down the investments, the opportunities and the jobs that are coming with them. The SK Battery America plant is, appropriately, located in the city of Commerce, Georgia. The $1.6 billion project – expected to employ 2,000 – was finalized in early January 2019, but without investment from the state and local government, it might not have been built in Georgia. "They were looking at several other states, especially in the southeastern U.S.," said John Scott, director of economic development for Jackson County. "When we were working with them the final two sites were between here and somewhere in Tennessee." … According to Michael Toma, Ph.D., Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Economics at Georgia Southern University, a new project creating 1,000 jobs can have a huge impact, while 500 jobs is a significant project for medium-sized cities. How good the jobs are is a matter of debate, although state and local officials emphasize that they look for jobs that pay well. July 27 – USA Today/Savannah Morning News If you’re a reporter looking to know more about why business is booming in Georgia – then let us help. Michael Toma, Ph.D., is Georgia Southern University's Fuller E. Callaway professor of economics and is available to speak with media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
Three Aston University STEM pioneers shortlisted for Women in Tech Awards
• Three finalists from Aston University shortlisted for prestigious Women in Tech Awards • Two academics are up for the award which will be announced in October • A degree apprentice has also been nominated in the category Three STEM pioneers from Aston University are celebrating after being shortlisted for the prestigious Midlands Women In Tech Awards. Aston University’s Reham Badawy and Lucy Bastin have picked up nominations for the academic category while Jessica Morgan has been put forward for the apprentice category for the awards. The Midlands Women in Tech Awards are an opportunity to highlight and recognise the ongoing contribution of women in the tech sector. The aim of the awards is to raise the visibility of women in the tech space and enable the next generation to ‘see it and therefore aspire to it’. Jessica Morgan is studying a Digital Technology Solutions apprenticeship with Cap Gemini and Aston University, with experience working on projects within the public sector. She is in the final year of her degree apprenticeship and has been balancing work, studying and volunteering, while being on track for a first class honours. Reham Badawy is part of the Undergraduate Teaching Team at Aston University. Her research work has used smart tech to detect and monitor symptoms of Parkinson’s disease. She is a strong advocate for women in STEM and is a UK Ambassador for Women are Boring. Lucy Bastin has a Masters in GIS and a PhD in Urban Ecology. She is a senior lecturer in Computer Science and was recently on secondment to the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. She developed web-based biodiversity information systems that support accessible and user-friendly reporting by the international community against policy and conservation targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals. Professor Kate Sugden, deputy dean for the College of Engineering and Physical Sciences at Aston University said: “We are delighted to see so many Aston University shortlisted candidates for the Women in Tech Awards. “In our eyes they are all winners and are great examples of our ongoing commitment to making significant contributions to the region and wider society.” Voting closes on August 20 and more details about the finalists can be found here: www.womenintechawards.co.uk The ceremony takes place on 7 October where the winners will be announced.
Homelessness expert on eviction moratoriums
Marybeth Shinn, Cornelius Vanderbilt Chair, Department of Human and Organizational Development, is available for commentary on eviction moratoriums and how they work. An expert on the topic of homelessness and affordable housing, Shinn is also the author of a recently published book, "In the Midst of Plenty: Homelessness and What to Do About It." Shinn can speak to: How an eviction moratorium works and consequences for it ending, including accumulated rents being due The health hazard that evictions and potential homelessness or congregate housing cause, especially as we continue to endure COVID Her view that we know what causes homelessness (lack of affordable housing, rising inequality, etc.) and have the resources to end it, but lack the political will Suggested government assistance to end the crisis and how affordable housing is the first step to getting people back on their feet (everything else, such as employment, comes second)
Brexit: UK services are losing out to EU rivals – but Asia could be big winner
"Seven months after Britain’s exit from the EU, the chilly effects on UK trade are being felt. Total exports of UK goods and services were down by 13% (£36 billion) and imports down 22% (£66 billion) for January to May 2021 compared to the same period in 2019." Professor Jun Du, Aston Business School Singapore looks like one of the big winners from Brexit. joyfull In a separate new ONS report into UK services, exports and imports fell 12% and 24% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. To some extent this is due to the pandemic, but the decline with EU countries was more severe (exports down 15% and imports by 39%), which suggests Brexit was relevant too. The difference between services exports to EU and non-EU countries was particularly marked in sectors like construction (-43% vs +24%), maintenance and repair (-62% vs +11%), and manufacturing services (-40% vs -12%). It seems to confirm that the UK’s services offering has been made less competitive by the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement hardly covering such business. This has left EU members free to decide whether to allow different UK providers into their markets. But as we shall see, other services exporting countries outside the EU may also benefit as a result. In our recent paper, Ireland looked like the big winner. It has probably benefited from firms relocating and business being re-routed from the UK, not to mention low corporation tax and a young well-educated workforce. Between 2016 and 2019, Ireland’s services exports rose 24% (that’s €144 billion or £123 billion), driven by financial services, IT and transport. Speculation still abounds about which other EU cities will benefit in the medium term. Amsterdam surpassed London as Europe’s largest share-trading centre in January by absorbing much trade in euro-denominated assets, though London has been back on top recently. Other potential winners include Frankfurt (banking), Luxembourg (banking and asset management) and Paris (financial, professional and business services). Even a less serious contender like Berlin can attract tech talents thanks to its culture clusters and affordability. On the other hand, most financial traders have so far remained in London. The city is still strong in hosting stock market flotations and other forms of capital raising. And the flow of financial jobs out of London has been a fraction of what remainers predicted. A four-year regulatory transition period for areas like data protection and electronic trade will undoubtedly be helping. London vs EU rivals is only half the story. James Padolsey/Unsplash, CC BY-SA Yet all this misses a bigger picture, namely that Europe’s ability to provide services may have been weakened overall. Imagine a group of US investors wants to invest £1 billion in European shares and other financial assets. In the past it might have set up a fund in London, making use of the city’s network of lawyers, accountants, bankers and other finance professionals, while filtering some of the work to specialists in, say, Paris and Frankfurt for issues related to France and Germany. But now Brexit means the fund can’t invest in certain EU securities from London. The investors would have to set up a second fund in, say, Dublin to get exposure to all the EU assets they want. The additional expense and time involved makes them decide it will be more lucrative to set up an Asia-focused fund in Singapore instead. When you multiply this effect across every sector, it is potentially huge. Certainly some investors will decide to either switch attention from the UK to EU countries, or to live with the extra cost of doing business across both the UK and EU. But others are deciding that an opportunity somewhere else in the world now looks more attractive. The danger is that this adds up to a global shift in economic weight over time. In fact, we could be seeing signs of this already. Winners and losers In follow-on research that we have yet to publish, we have been analysing the services exports of the major service providers in Europe and globally, using trade data jointly collected by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The data shows the UK was and is the biggest services exporter in Europe and second only to the US worldwide, but appears to have been losing ground since Brexit. Ireland and the Netherlands are the major growth stories in Europe, while China, India and Singapore are leading the way elsewhere. Services exports by country, 2019 vs 2015 Trends in services exports. Left: 2015 data in solid coloured bars; 2019 change in yellow markers. Right: Green bars represent accelerating service growth; red bars represent decelerating growth. BaTIS The UK’s services growth trend fell 11% in the 2016-2019 period compared to 2010-15. This backs up our recent published research finding that the UK’s global share of exported services fell from 8.9% in 2005 to 7% in 2019. Meanwhile, France, Spain, Italy and Belgium’s growth has also been declining, while Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Austria and also the US were static. Ireland was the fastest growing services exporter among all, but Singapore and India gained momentum too. Strikingly, we see increasing growth in Asia between 2016 and 2019 in sectors like travel, financial, IT and creative services. This includes extraordinary growth in Singapore in finance, business, insurance and pension provision, and also in China in numerous segments. It looks like nothing short of a boom. Shanghai has been on the up and up. Krzystsztof Kotkowicz, CC BY-SA This may partly reflect the industrial transformation taking place in the Asian developing world from manufacturing to services. It may also capture a long-term shift of services centres from the west to the east – a reshuffle on a truly global scale. But at the same time, it’s evidence that Brexit has weakened the UK as the European centre for services. Yes, business shifted to Ireland (and Luxembourg) to some extent, but that could be hiding a wider collective setback. The question for the years ahead, for the UK and its European services peers, is whether they can come up with arrangements that help maintain their collective strengths – and to what extent they can exploit opportunities elsewhere, particularly on developing countries, where US services providers have traditionally been far ahead. This article was co-written by Professor Jun Du and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo.
Experts explore the gap between research and practice in disaster management
The COVID-19 pandemic has attracted public attention to crisis management globally, writes Aston University's Oscar Rodriguez-Espindola. Although authorities and international organisations are still actively and diligently trying to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, some of the attention is shifting towards understanding the decisions made and learning from our experience. Indeed, this experience has inadvertently shown different areas for improvement for emergency management systems. The experience gained during the pandemic should lead governments and organisations to refine crisis management processes to prepare for challenges ahead. Leveraging research and specialist groups have been essential to support and inform decisions, as these can provide key insights guiding policy decisions. However, the integration of research and practice should not take place at the response stage only, but as part of the core crisis management system at every stage. It is crucial to maintain and strengthen the relationships between research and practice forged during the pandemic for different emergencies in the future. With the increasing number of different disasters happening and the threats stemming from climate change, it is not surprising that between 1994 and 2013 around 1.35 million lives have been claimed annually by natural disasters. Therefore, the value of partnerships between research and practice needs to be strengthened and implemented globally. Academics from Aston University in the UK and the Universidad Autónoma de Occidente in Mexico have investigated the current status of the integration of research and practice for crisis management. A systematic literature review of decision models for humanitarian logistics has been used to understand the way these models have reflected the real conditions experienced by decision-makers and catered to their priorities. Afterwards, interviews with two civil protection authorities of the state of Sinaloa, Mexico, have been undertaken to understand the conditions faced by them for crisis management, their processes and their view of decision models to support crisis management in the country. Next, a multicriteria decision analysis was used to capture their preferences regarding the objectives set for humanitarian operations to develop an analysis of their priorities. Practice needs to be informed by research, but for that guidance to be impactful, research needs to have a thorough understanding of the conditions and challenges faced by practice. The literature focused on models for humanitarian logistics has shown that the engagement of academics with practitioners in the design of solutions to support decision-making has been declared in less than a quarter of the contributions, as shown in Table 1. That means the design of solutions is based on prior secondary information or founded on a theoretical basis, which is not necessarily reflecting the current reality faced by authorities. It is noteworthy that there is an increasing trend in the number of articles involving practitioners in recent years, with more than half of them published in the previous three years. Despite that growth, however, the relative percentage of contributions incorporating practitioners has never been beyond 40% of all the models published in any year, which highlights that there is still a long way to go to support research development. Table 1: Involvement of practitioners in the design of models for humanitarian logistics Our interviews highlighted that authorities perceive the potential of systems to improve information management forecasting and decision-making, but they also unveiled the concerns about these systems providing unrealistic or unfeasible solutions. Optimisation models are formulations in which a metric is maximised or minimised subject to a series of constraints. If the objective does not reflect the objectives and priorities of decision-makers, then results can be less relevant for decision-makers. For instance, models solely aiming to minimise cost would struggle to give useful solutions to authorities focused primarily on providing support to all the victims equally. Therefore, the lack of involvement from decision-makers can lead practitioners to be cautious about using decision-making models. To examine the link between contributions in the literature and the objectives and priorities of authorities, data about them was gathered and analysed using a technique known as Fuzzy-TOPSIS. The purpose was to identify the importance given to different objectives by authorities for different activities in order to rank them based on importance as shown in Table 2. Although humanitarian logistics are characterised by a focus on the overarching ideas of saving lives and reducing suffering, it is still surprising to note that cost was the least important objective for authorities. Conversely, more than three-quarters of the models surveyed are using cost as the main objective function, which makes it the most prominent objective in humanitarian logistics. As preferences from authorities seem considerably more focused on maintaining a reliable flow of support, with high levels of service and ensuring to reach the most affected population, our findings suggest a misalignment between research and practice. Hence, neglecting to incorporate practitioners in decision-making models for humanitarian logistics can lead to omitting their needs and priorities, rendering the models less effective to provide workable solutions. Table 2: Ranking of objectives from civil protection authorities Additionally, it is important that research guides and influences practice in relevant aspects for further development. For instance, understandably, the chaotic and urgent conditions faced by authorities in humanitarian logistics force them to prioritise response over any other considerations. Our interviews confirmed this, as they mentioned that even though sustainability is becoming a crucial element in regular times, it is undermined by the urgency of the response and only included in recovery activities. This is an aspect worth looking into because research has shown that sustainability can be integrated into crisis management, even with the potential to provide improvements in terms of efficiency. Hence, a more thorough integration between research and practice would allow to positively influence activities on the field based on findings and results proposed and tested by cutting-edge investigations. Overall, our findings suggest that despite the increasing remarks about the intention of joining research and practice, there is still a significant divide between them. Reducing that divide can be beneficial for both sides. More practice-informed research can allow to development of feasible solutions that can enhance the support provided to disaster victims in practice, whereas more research-informed practice can provide stronger foundations for effective decision-making and guide research to focus on key aspects to make it more impactful. Therefore, it is essential to put more emphasis on integrating research and practice from the roots, to make their interaction more fruitful. Current trends seem to be going towards that direction, especially with the current focus on the impact on research, but further efforts are required to motivate researchers and practitioners to work together to improve crisis management. This article was co-written by Oscar Rodriguez-Espindola, Pavel Albores, Hossein Ahmadi, Soumyadeb Chowdhury, Prasanta Dey from Aston University and Diego Chavira and Omar Ahumanda from the Universidad Autónoma de Occidente. This work was supported by an Institutional Links grant, ID 527666998, under the Newton UK-Mexico partnership. The grant is funded by the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and delivered by the British Council. For further information, please visit www.newtonfund.ac.uk