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Georgia Southern University – is thinking BIG when it comes to entrepreneurs and small business

Through the CARES Act and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Georgia Southern University’s Business Innovation Group (BIG) has received $300,000 in grant funding to expand its services to the region in an effort to help communities and businesses respond to and recover from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. “This will really allow us to help businesses and entrepreneurs throughout the entire state ideally get access to the skills, knowledge and services that Georgia Southern has to offer,” said Dominique Halaby, DPA, director of BIG. Over the next two years, BIG will use these funds to expand their services through the Georgia Enterprise Network for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (GENIE). “We’re hoping that we can demonstrate to budding entrepreneurs and small business owners that Georgia Southern can help them develop and grow,” Halaby said. “We are hopeful that in two years’ time people are going to have a heightened aerial view of awareness for Georgia Southern and our Business Innovation Group services, but more importantly, that they are going to get the type of resources to be able to launch the business that they’ve always wanted to launch.” Halaby said offering these resources to the region is important for economic growth. “Any time that we have an ability to do something, we have a responsibility to do it,” Halaby said. “The needs of our community are great. Our ability to service those needs by connecting those with the resources on our campus and with the skills that we have fostered within BIG puts us in a very unique position. This way, we are able to provide services to help as many entrepreneurs and to help as many people looking for jobs as we possibly can.” BIG will also use part of the grant funding to work with Georgia Southern faculty to strengthen patent and licensing activity. “We’re working with our intellectual property committee and through the University to let faculty know that if they’ve got a concept, that BIG can help them flesh that out. We can work with them to do an analysis to see the marketability for their concept and determine if it’s patentable or licensable,” Halaby said. If you’re a journalist looking to know more about how Georgia Southern University is assisting regional businesses or its Business Innovation Group (BIG) – then let our experts help with your coverage. Dominique Halaby, DPA, is the Director of the Business Innovation Group (BIG) at Georgia Southern University. In 2015, BIG was recognized as a Gold Award Winner in Entrepreneurship by the International Economic Development Council. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Digital Media Consumption in Canada is Being Dramatically Impacted by the Coronavirus Crisis

A Canadian perspective on Comscore’s ongoing special investigation into how the COVID-19 pandemic is leading to significant audience and consumer behaviour changes across digital platforms. Insights from our Analysis: News, news and more news: Canadians are consuming news at a record pace Social media and messaging: Canadians are staying ultra-connected with their communities Entertainment, music, and spirituality content: increased consumption seen as behaviours change Government: information from government websites are becoming top-of-mind Finance: increased focus on investments and payments  Analysis of News & Information Category We have seen an explosion on engagement with news and information sites. In looking at the news categories and its subcategories, the week of Mar 9-15, 2020 saw big increases in engagement over the benchmark week of Dec 30, 2019 - Jan 5, 2020. As a trend, news consumption in general is also on the rise in Canada in terms of aggregate daily unique visitors and visits over time. Analysis of Social Media and Messaging Category As Canadians respond to the Coronavirus reality, we are seeing that their engagement with digital communication channels has increased significantly. When comparing daily engagement with email, instant messengers and social networking sites between the week of March 9-15, 2020 and the benchmark week of Dec 30, 2019 -Jan 5, 2020 as it relates to the % change in usage, we saw large increase in activity. The raw increase in numbers in social media provides greater detailsof the growth in usage: Analysis of Entertainment, Misc and Religious / Spiritual Category Content is Queen, King, Prince, and Princess – between the weeks of Dec 30– January 5 and March 9-15, greater amounts of time at home and the associated increased screen time drove incremental usage of the Entertainment category and the Religious/Spiritual subcategory. Driving the growth is the explosion of Entertainment – Music, which saw an increase of 32% in aggregate daily UV, a 33% increase in visits, and a 31% increase in minutes during this time. Analysis of Government Category Another category that has seen an explosion of visitation and engagement is government sites. Overall there has been huge audience and time spent with government-related content. Here is the build of visits and aggregate Daily UV over the past 10 weeks: We reviewed the Government category between week of Dec 30, 2019 – January 5, 2020 to March 9 – March 15, 2020 and looked at the % change in usage, which really showed a large increase in activity by Canadians. Based on this trend and growing global cases of Coronavirus, it is expected that Canadian audiences will continue to flock to the content from the government in these uncertain times. Analysis of Finance Category There is a saying that we hear in society – “Follow the Money”. The digital behavior of Canadians has been analogous in recent weeks as we have seen increased measures taken relating to the Coronavirus. Overall the Business/Finance category has seen some increased usage over the time period reviewed. Banking, Payments, Investments, and especially Taxes have seen high visitation. Between the week of Dec 30, 2019 – January 5, 2020 to March 9 – March 15, 2020 we saw an increase of +19% and +59%, respectively, in visits in the Investments and Payments subcategories. Additional insights from Comscore’s initial COVID-19 insights for Canada show that: Overall Digital Consumption across the Total Internet has increased. During the time period of this review visits have increased by 10% and time spent has increased by 14% In a time of crisis, people turn to News/Information Websites There have been significant increases in activity by Canadians on Social Media, Email, and Messaging pointing to the need for communication. Social distancing is safe on the internet. Interest soars for government information sources – where we see an explosion of usage. Increases in certain content Categories like Entertainment, Games, Music, Dating, and Religion/Spirituality have spiked Spikes in traffic are occurring for the e-commerce giants as social distancing and local restrictions impact in-store retail – with specific focus on Food and Supermarket Global movement restrictions lead to tumultuous traffic for travel sites

Canadian's Digital Behavioral Shifts in Relation to the The Coronavirus Pandemic

This article is part of a series of insights that reveal a Canadian perspective on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior and significant audience shifts across digital platforms. Things are moving fast. Following our last update regarding digital media consumption during the Coronavirus pandemic, this article will highlight some of the major category changes reflected as of the week March 16 - 22, 2020. Key Insights from Our Analysis Digital consumption continues to grow: the visits and minutes curve is not flattening Key content categories such as news, social media, and government are being driven by higher engagement: metrics include visits and duration More engagement with news sites: sites categorized as local, business/finance, and general news are main drivers Categories that focus on entertaining, kids, food, financial advice, and children’s education are also seeing growth: growth comes from increases in aggregate unique visitors, visits and minutes Automotive manufacturers, real estate, sports and travel entities have seen decreases: however, they are poised for major increases and a bounce back. Mobile platforms are driving growth: some differences between desktop and mobile engagement Canadian's total digital consumption continues to grow When we analyzed Canadian total digital media consumption to compare the percentage change between the week of March 16, 2020 and the first weeks of January 2020, February 2020, and March 2020, we found that overall digital engagement is not flattening. Even comparing the beginning of March against mid-March, we can see visitation, visits, and engagement continuing to grow. Looking at the total digital consumption trend over time, we can see growth in total minutes spent online while total visits have remained relatively flat. Media Consumption Growth by Category There are several content categories that we are seeing major growth in each of the time periods: These digital categories of news/information, social media, entertainment, government and games are showing continuous growth. The need for ongoing news and information updates, government information, flocking to social media to bring community together and message, and the need to be entertained with visitation and engagement on Entertainment and Games Entities. News and Information Category Insights  To look at the news/information category a bit closer – it is amazing to see the category growth over the past few weeks of Canadians going to news entities to get updates. The hockey stick growth from the start of March 2020 is very evident. The news and information growth is being driven by local news, general news, and business/finance news. That being said – technology, politics, and weather are also seeing growth. Through these time periods, we are also seeing some other categories that are showing significant growth. Many of the categories are a result of many Canadians being home bound and isolated, and with families with kids having the kids at home. Platform Variance for Media Consumption One of the areas that we have been asked most about is whether we find any variances between desktop and mobile platforms. When reviewing the data, there is greater engagement with mobile platforms in the week of March 16 compared to other weeks. Amidst the global COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing a significant increase in digital consumption amongst Canadian consumers. The data trends show Canadians are flocking online with significant growth in news entities, instant messaging, social media, government resources, entertainment, music destinations, video, and financial websites. What this means for marketers and advertisers is a significant opportunity to reach Canadians who are highly engaged and are looking for relevant and timely content. It comes down to delivering the right message, at the right time, in front of the right audience, in brand safe environments.

Insights and Analysis of Canadian Digital Media Consumption During the Coronavirus Pandemic

In the midst of the COVID-19 crisis, millions of Canadians are staying home and turning to their computers, smartphones, and tablets as a core source of news, information, education, and entertainment. This article is part of a series of insights that reveal a Canadian perspective on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer behavior and significant audience shifts across digital platforms. This week we will highlight some of the major category changes reflected as of the week March 23 - 29, 2020. Key Insights from Our Analysis: Digital consumption continues to grow, although at a slower pace Canadians are still consuming news at a record pace, but growth is slowing Sports and Real Estate declines are slowing Retail overall is stable but key categories like Toys, Apparel, and Books are increasing in consumption Canadian usage in Dating, Pets, Food, and Family & Youth Education on the rise Canada's Total Digital Population An analysis of Canadian Total Digital Media consumption looking at the percent change from week of March 23, 2020 to March 29, 2020 from the previous week of March 16, 2020 to March 22, 2020 showed continued increase of Unique Visitors (UVs), Visits, and Minutes, but does reveal that some increases are at a slower rate than previous weeks. Unique Visitors grew by +1%, Visits by +2%, and Minutes by +5%. At a top line that is still substantial growth, but throughout this release we will give insights into what is driving these increases, and in some cases highlight categories that are starting to show recovery. Analysis from the News and Information Category This category has been a huge focus over the past few releases given the amazing growth of Unique Visitors, Visits, and Minutes as COVID-19 became more prevalent in Canada. Canadians flocked to News/Information websites in record numbers driven by General News, Local News, Weather, and Politics. With that being said, during our latest week of data (week of March 23, 2020 to March 29, 2020) we have seen a lower percentage increase for the category. There is still growth, but the growth is at a slower rate. The category is still a huge area of focus and visitation and engagement are near record high levels. Analysis from the Retail Category The Retail category has also been a particular focus as bricks and mortar shopping has significantly changed, and in some places closed where they are deemed non-essential. Overall, the Retail category has seen a pretty flat line of growth in Unique Visitors, Visits, and Minutes. That being said, we have seen some sub-categories show growth that is greatly over-indexing. This growth in the Retail category is being driven by these subcategories: Toys, Books, Apparel, Sports/Outdoor, Department Stores/Malls. Toys is leading the charge with a 27% week-over-week growth in Unique Visitors. Analysis from Sports and Real Estate Categories The Sports and Real Estate categories have been two of several categories hit by major decreases in visitation and engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada.  With live sports on hold for most of the major sports leagues in North America – there has been a decline across the board. That being said, during the week of March 23, 2020 to March 29, 2020 for the first time since our COVID-19 analysis began we have seen a decrease in the rate of decline in Visitation, and an in fact an increase in week-over-week Minutes. In terms of the Real Estate category, we have seen small week-over-week decreases with -3% in Unique Visitors, -7% in Visits, and -6% in Minutes – compared to the double-digit declines in the past few weeks. Insights from Other Categories of Interest There were a few other categories that hit our radar this week when looking at the data. These categories have seen week-over-week increases – that show Canadians are increasing Visitation and Engagement with this content. Many of these categories reflect the reality that people are isolated at home – with either kids (whom they must entertain and educate) or without kids or a partner – and they are looking to meet new people (Dating). The Pets category showed big increases, and Lifestyle – Food showed increases in activity. Canadians are apparently focused on love, kids, pets, and their tummies!

With an economy on life support – is inflation inevitable?

As countries around the globe are flooding their respective economies with enough cash to hold back the financial tsunami that could be felt by COVID-19 … will all that cash inevitably come with an unfortunate consequence like inflation? Those who work the markets and do their best to see into the future … think so.   With the world economy forecast to shrink 6% this year, it may seem like a strange time to fret about inflation. And sure enough, market-based gauges suggest an uptrend in prices may not trouble investors for years. U.S. and euro zone inflation gauges indicate that annual price growth will be running at barely over 1% even a decade from now. So if inflation really is, as the IMF put it in 2013, “the dog that didn’t bark”, failing to respond to all the central bank money-printing unleashed in the wake of the 2008-9 crisis, why should investors prepare for it now, especially as demographics and technology are also conspiring to tamp down inflation across the developed world? The answer is that some think the dog really will bark this time, partly because - unlike in the post-2008 years - governments around the world have also been rolling out massive spending packages, in a bid to limit the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. “We will be pushing, pushing, pushing on the string and dropping our guard, then 3-5 years from now...that’s when the (inflation) dog will start barking,” said PineBridge Investments’ head of multi-asset Mike Kelly, who has been buying gold on that view. “Gold worries about such things long in advance. It has risen through this coronavirus with that down-the-road-risk top of mind,” he added. June 22 - Reuters It’s a daunting and stressful scenario. How much inflation could America expect and what would it mean to household incomes and spending? What industries would be further devastated by this? Is there any way to reverse inflation or is there an upside to it for some? If you are a reporter covering this topic – then let our experts help. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

FAU College of Business Experts Available to Discuss May Unemployment Numbers

Professors in Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business are available to discuss U.S. unemployment figures that are scheduled to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, June 5. The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to 14.7 percent in April in response to the coronavirus pandemic. It’s the highest level since the Great Depression, and analysts fear it could be years before the economy fully recovers. If you are a journalist covering this important story about employment and the economy of Florida and America  – let our experts help. Rebel Cole, Ph.D., a Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance, has expertise in financial institutions, commercial banking and small business finance. He spent 10 years working in the Federal Reserve System. Cole has been interviewed by numerous national media outlets, such as The Wall Street Journal and The Palm Beach Post. William Luther, Ph.D., an assistant professor in FAU’s Economics Department, has expertise in economic growth, monetary policies, business cycles and cryptocurrencies. He has authored more than two dozen articles. Luther’s research has obtained media interest across the nation, including recent coverage by Politico and Florida Trend. Both Professor Cole and Luther are available to speak with media – simply click on either expert’s icon to arrange an interview today.

An eye on the economy: Georgia Southern’s Q1 2020 Economic Monitor: Pandemic slams regional economy, outlook remains murky

Governmental response to the pandemic shuttered much of the regional economy toward the end of the first quarter of 2020, stated Michael Toma, Ph.D., Fuller E. Callaway professor of economics, in Georgia Southern University’s Q1 2020 Economic Monitor. Economic growth ground to a halt as seven of the eight indicators of current economic activity in the region fell. Significant declines were recorded in airplane boardings, hotel sales and port activity.  The business forecasting index fell sharply in the first quarter, as initial claims for unemployment insurance skyrocketed during the last week of March. All six leading indicators declined, and further signs of economic damage will be forthcoming in second quarter data, noted Toma. “Looking ahead, the regional economy will experience sharp contraction in the second quarter, likely extending into the third quarter of 2020,” he continued. “The speed of rebound and recovery will be influenced primarily by how people react to governmental easing of restrictions on business activity. More substantial economic recovery will be delayed until such time that business owners, employees and consumers develop a greater level of comfort interacting with each other in the public domain.”  If you are a reporter looking to know more about the Georgia economy, including areas such as: Regional expansion Employment trends Tourism and Expected deterioration of local business Then let our experts help with your coverage.  Michael Toma, Ph.D., is Georgia Southern University's Fuller E. Callaway professor of economics and is available to speak with media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

IDC Canada Recently Released 20 New Research Reports to Understand the Impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian ICT Market

TORONTO, ON., May 29, 2020 — International Data Corporation (IDC) Canada announced today the release of 20 new research reports to help vendors understand the impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian ICT market, including five new forecast documents. In addition, most analysts have created an additional report analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on their specific technology patch, providing our clients with additional details on the impact and guidance for vendors in that market. IDC Market Forecasts help technology suppliers identify market drivers and size, measure current performance, analyze leading market indicators, as well as plan for future opportunities and growth. The five forecast reports are listed below: Canadian Communications Services Forecast, 2020–2024: COVID-19 Turns Telecom Inside Out (IDC# CA45063520 ). This IDC study presents IDC Canada's five-year forecasts for communications services spending by market and customer segments, company size, industry sector, and region for 2020–2024 based on the annual update of IDC Canada's Communications Market Model and replaces our previous comprehensive spring and fall 2019 forecasts. "Communications providers are largely recession proof and fortunately investments in next-gen network technologies and architectures are allowing communications service providers to cope with unrivalled demand," says study coauthor Lawrence Surtees, vice president of Communications Research and principal analyst at IDC Canada. "But the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic is still a great unknown and its associated economic shocks could dramatically impact the current forecast." Canadian IT Professional Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC# CA45064220 ). This IDC study provides the spring 2020 market size and forecasts for the Canadian IT professional services market. The professional services market is made up of four submarkets: Custom application development, IS consulting, Network consulting & integration, and Systems integration. "The Canadian IT professional services market relies on discretionary capital spending budgets, which are typically suspended or curtailed in times of economic uncertainty. 2020 will be a challenging year for professional services firms due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the market is expected to recover as the Canadian and global economies recover and businesses reinstate capital spending for IT projects," says Jim Westcott, research manager, Professional Services, IDC Canada. Canadian Infrastructure Outsourcing Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC#CA45058420). This IDC study provides IDC's forecast for the Canadian infrastructure outsourcing services market for 2020–2024. It is an update of the previous forecast published in Canadian Infrastructure Outsourcing Services Forecast, 2019–2023 (IDC #CA43804019, May 2019). "The infrastructure outsourcing market continues to change, and COVID-19 will likely accelerate change. The decline in 1st and 2nd Platform technologies is leading to slow outsourcing spending on these areas, while the growth in 3rd Platform technologies to support digital transformation are increasingly incorporated into outsourcing and managed service engagements," says Jason Bremner, research vice president, Industry and Business Solutions. Canadian Consumer Wireless, Internet, and Wireline Voice Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC# CA45059520). "In an already-competitive consumer market in the middle of great technological change, the global Coronavirus pandemic and the precautionary restrictions it has placed on Canadians has not only caused drastic socioeconomic changes but has forced consumers to weigh out the value proposition of each consumer service," says coauthor Manish Nargas, senior analyst for Consumer Services and Mobility. "Survival of the fittest is the call of the hour, and it seems that some consumer services will fare better than others after the dust has settled. While easier said than done, service providers need to think beyond the today's losses in order to plan for tomorrow's win." Canadian Consumer TV Services Forecast, 2020-2024 (IDC#CA45059620). This IDC study examines the forecast for Canadian consumer TV services subscribers and revenue. It also addresses the factors shaping the market as well as the key drivers and inhibitors underlying the forecast. "TV service providers will have to bring out their A game as they look to harness their next-gen TV service capabilities and create symbiotic, seemingly 'complementary' partnerships with OTT video providers to keep consumer eyeballs on their TV service platforms all the while combating economic ill effects of COVID-19 restrictions in the short term," says coauthor Manish Nargas, senior analyst, Consumer Services and Mobility at IDC Canada. "Based on our forecasts from May 1, 2020, we’re looking at an unprecedented 5.4 per cent decline for the year for the combination of telecom and IT spending in Canada. The cumulative impact of trade restrictions, supply chain impairments, commodity price declines, significant lay-offs and freefalling consumer and business confidence has led to a more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market than we had predicted in early April," says Nigel Wallis, vice president, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. IDC develops detailed forecasting reports and analysis for major technology markets in Canada, which are published annually during the month of May. IDC's Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the Canadian ICT Market, 2020 and Beyond (IDC# CA46217620 , May 20 20 ) supports the underlying macroeconomic assumptions for each of the ICT market forecast reports. We also recently released a new interactive Canadian COVID-19 IT Impact Dashboard tool to help our clients visualize the impacts, in partnership with Rel8ed.to, which is available for everyone to use. For our clients that need to know the impact of the pandemic on ICT Spending beyond Canada’s borders, IDC created our global COVID-19 Resources microsite which contains more research reports, webinars, press releases and blog posts from around the world. We’ve also done a series of free webcasts for our clients with the first one on April 2 and the second one on May 6. Our third webcast in this series will occur on June 4th. Register today for COVID-19 Impact: Preparing for Recovery in the Canadian Tech Market. Here’s the list of our recently published Canadian-based COVID-19 research reports to help our clients meet the challenges from the pandemic, anticipate market changes and keep business moving: COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian ICT Market (IDC#CA46134820) Canadian Datacenter Infrastructure Action Item, Q2 2020: The Impact of COVID-19 (IDC#CA45057420) Impact of COVID-19: Canadian IT Services Market (IDC#CA46166120) All Priorities Aside: The Canadian Government's Singular Response to COVID-19 (IDC#CA46166920) The Impact of COVID-19: Canadian Security Solutions Market (IDC#CA46166520) Canadian Communications Service Provider Capex Spending, 2019–2020 (IDC#CA45063820) Canadian Government Wireless Price Policy - Ill-conceived and Horribly Timed (IDC# CA45663920) COVID-19 Business Impact: Hierarchy of Needs; Moving from Pandemic Risk Management to Organizational Agility (IDC# CA46228420) How is the Pandemic Crisis Impacting Digital Transformation in Canada? (IDC# CA46235620) Impact of COVID-19: Canadian Software as a Service Market (IDC# CA46166620) COVID-19 Impact: What’s Next for the Canadian Tech Market (IDC# CA46281820) COVID-19 Impact: Canadian Retail & Wholesale Market (IDC# CA45674020) COVID-19 Leadership: Canadian CIOs Strategize on Responses to COVID-19 (forthcoming) Critical Networks Provide Critical Care: Role of Communication Networks to Treat and Prevent COVID-19 (forthcoming) COVID-19 Impact: Canadian Vertical Markets Overview (forthcoming) For more information about the market forecast reports, the COVID-19 related reports, or to arrange a one on one interview with any of the report authors, please contact Cristina Santander at AskIDC@IDCcanada.com.

What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?

What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.

What are IDC's Tech Insights on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian Market?

Dear Member of the IDC Canada Community, As we all adapt to this ever changing environment, our Canadian team has been working behind the scenes analyzing the COVID-19 impact on the Canadian ICT market. This email provides you with tech insights, including updates on market outlook and further resources to help you make critical business decisions in the weeks and months ahead. Canadian Total IT Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down from 2.4% to -5.0% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Research Scenario The coronavirus outbreak across the world and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially affect the Canadian IT markets, severely accelerating the impact already felt from the supply-driven effects from Asia. In this extremely fluid scenario, International Data Corporation (IDC) now expects to see a significant slowdown in technology spending in 2020 across Canadian organizations, with IT spending expected to decline by -5.0%. As recently as December 2019, we were projecting a positive 2.4% growth rate for 2020. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for Q2 and Q3. "Technology vendors and buyers are rapidly adapting to the disruption and the extremely fast-moving market conditions," said Nigel Wallis , Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian IT market fully. However, given the sharp economic contraction, IDC recommends that all technology leaders recalibrate their strategies."  IDC Canada has developed three scenarios to help technology providers and buyers with their short-term business and technology investment planning. "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3. Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4," said Tony Olvet , GVP Research, at IDC Canada. A Probable Scenario Depicting a Decline In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian IT spending to decline by -5.0% in constant currency terms this year, down from the 2.4% forecast published at the end of 2019. "When taking a broad historical view of Canadian IT spending across the past decade, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis is expected to exceed the levels of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. As such, it does represent the most significant deceleration in IT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time," said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. As restrictions of movement bite, supply-chain disruption becomes commonplace, and demand drops, Canadian IT spending will drop rapidly in Q2. Particularly manufacturing, personal and consumer services, transportation, and hospitality will be sharply curbed, as these industries are the most exposed to the COVID-19 crisis impact in the short-, mid-, and long-term view. At the same time, other sectors, such as healthcare and government, will be forced to accelerate investments significantly. IDC expects this will drive additional IT investments for the public sector, pushing hard on infrastructure and collaboration tools deployments, but not before the second half of 2020." In the most pessimistic scenario, IDC expects ICT spending to drop and record a –8.2% decline in 2020, with all technology domains showing negative trends for the remaining part of the year. A series of domino effects, including oil price changes, currency depreciation, the inability of governments to make timely payments, delays in the supply chains and significant lay-offs would lead to a much more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market and an exponential increase in the downside risk in IDC's market forecast assumptions. The new outlook is shaped primarily by lower expectations in the hardware and services markets: Hardware markets will suffer due to restriction measures hampering supply and overall reduced demand. Client Devices are particularly hit hard, initially because of supply constraints and in later quarters as reduced demand further erode growth. The most significant impact on the IT services industry will be a result of businesses postponing decisions on pending projects and slowing the execution of projects in the delivery phase. Spending reductions on the software and telecoms markets are less pronounced, and some positive factors are expected to moderate the natural downturn somewhat. While the decrease in hardware spending will also negatively impact the overall software market to a degree, difficulties prompted by COVID-19 across industries will impact total telecommunication spending (this will be examined in forthcoming IDC Canada research). At the same time, the increasing need for remote collaboration will push telecom services demand and drive new opportunities in the collaborative applications and platforms areas, as well as an increase in security technologies that enable them. The pre-existing digital maturity of industries will also be a factor impacting on their capacity to invest in technologies, regardless of their budget capabilities. Limited face-to-face business relationships between vendors and end-users will inevitably also reduce investment in significant digital transformation projects in less mature industries, and especially for projects involving more advanced technologies. Social distancing and provincial lock downs (the duration is hard to predict) will also have significant consequences on the purchasing options for many consumers. Additional factors weighing on investment will range from a decrease in customer demand to supply chains breaking up," said Meng Cong , Manager, Market Insights & Analytics at IDC Canada. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow. In use cases such as patient care as well as customer, citizen, student or employee experience and proximity, we expect to see accelerated adoption of digital solutions. Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." Register for our Complimentary Webcast Now On-Demand IDC's Canadian team is closely monitoring the evolution of the ICT market and its reaction to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios. If you are interested in knowing more about this, please register for the IDC Canada Complimentary Webcast COVID-19 Impact in the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.