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Lending Survey Results Reveal Recent and Dramatic Concern Due to Tariff Policy

Global consulting firm J.S. Held releases its proprietary “Lending Climate in America” survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The second quarter survey results highlight lenders’ views on important issues, including policy decisions along with their national and global impact. Each quarter, Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held, surveys lenders to identify important trends focused on the latest economic issues, business drivers, and credit trends in the current lending climate. The “Lending Climate in America” survey provides valuable information to lenders, attorneys, private equity sponsors, and the financial news media, exploring topics like: What factors do lenders see as most likely to impact the US economy in the next six months? Phoenix’s Q2 2025 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Sixty-seven percent of lenders are paying the most attention to the possibility of a U.S. recession, while 40% of lenders believe overall political uncertainty has the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders also expressed moderate concern regarding the possibility of constrained liquidity in capital markets. To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please visit: https://www.phoenixmanagement.com/lending-survey/ What shifts do lenders observe in their customers’ hiring and capital improvement plans? Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Over half of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will raise additional capital. Most telling was that lenders believe only 3% of their customers have plans to hire new employees (down from 56% in 1Q) and only 23% have plans for capital improvements (down from 67% in 1Q). Which industries are expected to see the most volatility over the next six months? For the first time in recent memory, the 3 industries that respondents identified as most likely to experience volatility in the next six months were different from the prior quarter - consumer products (60.0% versus 20.7%), retail trade (43.3% versus 31.0%), and manufacturing (33.3% versus 20.7%). How do lenders plan to adjust their loan structures? Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. For larger loan structures (greater than $25M), the plan to maintain loan structures remained relatively constant from Q1 to Q2, decreasing by 8 percentage points. As loan sizes decrease, the percentage of lenders that plan to maintain (as opposed to increase) their loan structures increased – quite dramatically in the under $15M range. How has lender sentiment toward the US economy changed from Q1 to Q2? Lender optimism in the U.S. economy decreased for the near term, moving from 2.33 in Q1 2025 to 2.10 in Q2 2025. In this current quarter, there is heavy expectation of a C level performance (63%), with the remainder split between D and B levels. More telling, lender expectations for the U.S. economy’s performance in the longer term increased sharply from 2.11 to 2.53. Of the lenders surveyed, 57% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a B level during the next twelve months, a hefty increase from the prior quarter. The “Lending Climate in America” survey is administered quarterly to lenders from various commercial banks, finance companies, and factors across the country. Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held, collects, tabulates, and analyzes the results to create a complete evaluation of national attitudes and trends. To view the full results, click on the button below: To connect with Michael Jacoby or for any other media inquiries, please contact: Kristi L. Stathis, J.S. Held +1 786 833 4864 Kristi.Stathis@JSHeld.com

Supply Chain Report: Logistics Leaders Predict Tight Capacity, High Prices Through Mid-2026

The Logistics Managers’ Index rose for the second consecutive month due to rising costs as the economy remains uncertain, according to researchers at Florida Atlantic University and four other schools. May’s index read in at 59.4, up slightly from April’s reading of 58.8. The reading is up 3.8 from the year prior. A score above 50 indicates that the logistics industry is expanding, while a score below 50 indicates that the industry is shrinking. Costs, particularly inventory costs, led to this month’s expansion. Inventory costs rose to 78.4, the highest level since October 2022, while inventory levels were only 51.5. The gap between the two suggests that many inventories are sitting stagnant. “The persistent uncertainty with respect to tariffs seems to be causing upward pressure on inventory costs, likely because of stockpiling effects,” said Steven Carnovale, Ph.D., associate professor of supply chain management in the College of Business. “The previous pause on tariffs opened up an opportunity to stockpile, which is also likely reflected in the rise in warehousing utilization and costs, as well as the rise in upstream warehouse utilization.” The LMI, a survey of director-level and above supply chain executives, measures the expansion or contraction of the logistics industry using eight unique components: inventory levels, inventory costs, warehousing capacity, warehousing utilization, warehousing prices, transportation capacity, transportation utilization and transportation prices. Along with FAU, researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rutgers University and the University of Nevada at Reno calculated the LMI using a diffusion index. Warehousing readings also point to further uncertainty among firms on the direction of the U.S. economy and tariff policy. Warehousing capacity was flat at 50, while warehousing costs and warehousing utilization read at 72.1 and 62.5, respectively. The readings suggest that inventories are sitting longer amid slower consumer demand and firms have been holding goods in anticipation of future tariff changes. “At a certain point, the see-saw effect of increased/decreased tariffs is likely going to lead to firms stockpiling when tariffs come down, and likely be forced to sit on excess inventory,” Carnovale said. “In this case, the decision will be: are the holding costs of excess inventory less than the (potential) future tariffs? And to what degree will these increased prices pass through to consumers?” Overall, respondents expect inventory levels to increase in the year ahead, with capacity growing tighter and costs expanding, highlighting the overall sentiment that trade issues and uncertainty will be wrapped up by the end of the year. Looking to know more - we can help. Steven is a supply chain strategist specializing in interfirm networks, risk management and global sourcing/production networks. He is available to speak with media. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today

Study reveals how race-evasive coverage of student loans fuels policy failures

For years, news coverage of the student debt crisis has left out a crucial part of the story: race. A new study in Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis analyzed 15 years of student loan reporting in eight major newspapers to reveal that most media outlets avoided mentioning race until just a few years ago (even though disparities existed for all 15 years of the study). While one might assume this shift came after the racial justice uprisings of 2020, the data shows that the turn toward more explicit racial language actually began around 2018. Dominique Baker, associate professor in the College of Education and Human Development’s School of Education and the Joseph R. Biden, Jr. School of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Delaware, was the lead researcher. “Even when newspapers did eventually address race, they focused primarily on documenting the size of disparities instead of talking about the structural reasons underlying them, like racism,” Baker said. “Other research has shown that when the news media solely focuses on the disparities and not the structural issues, readers are more likely to punish people of color instead of supporting solutions that could help them." Why does this information matter? Because how the media talks about policy shapes how the public—and policymakers—see the problem. If coverage ignores the racial disparities in student loan burdens, it makes race-neutral, one-size-fits-all solutions seem more logical—even if they fail to address real inequities. It’s not just about adding a few words. It’s about changing the lens entirely. Baker has appeared in dozens of national news outlets for her expertise. She is available for interviews on this paper and other topics surrounding higher education. Email mediarelations@udel.edu to contact her. 

What is Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)?

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), one of the most controversial federal agencies in the United States, plays a central role in enforcing immigration laws and maintaining national security. Created in the aftermath of 9/11 as part of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), ICE was established to consolidate and streamline immigration enforcement. Over the past two decades, it has become a lightning rod for political and ethical debate—raising urgent questions about border control, civil liberties, and immigration reform. As the national conversation around immigration intensifies, understanding the origins, structure, and impact of ICE remains critically important. Key story angles include: The Origins of ICE Post-9/11: Tracing the agency’s creation in 2003 under DHS and its intended role in counterterrorism and immigration enforcement. How ICE Operates Today: Breaking down ICE’s structure, including Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI). Controversies and Public Backlash: Investigating high-profile incidents, including family separations, detention center conditions, and deportation raids that have sparked widespread protest. The Politics of Immigration Enforcement: Exploring how ICE has become a partisan issue, with calls for its reform, defunding, or abolishment emerging from activists and lawmakers. The Human Impact of ICE Actions: Highlighting stories of immigrants, asylum seekers, and communities affected by ICE policies and practices. Future of Immigration Enforcement: Examining policy proposals for reforming ICE, improving transparency, and addressing legal and ethical concerns in a changing demographic landscape. As immigration remains one of the most urgent and divisive issues in American politics, ICE stands at the heart of the debate—making its history, purpose, and evolving role a vital topic for journalists and the public to understand. Connect with our experts about the origins and role of ICE : Check out our experts here : www.expertfile.com

A path to fair minerals trade: Researcher champions global trust model

As the world races to build cleaner energy systems and powerful AI technologies, the demand for critical minerals—like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths—is soaring. But with this demand comes rising global tension over who controls these resources. University of Delaware Professor Saleem Ali, an international expert in environmental policy and chair of UD's Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences, is suggesting a new way forward. In a new article published in Science, along with a United Nations policy brief, Ali and his coauthors propose the creation of a Global Minerals Trust. The article notes how the international plan would help countries work together to manage and share critical minerals fairly and sustainably—avoiding political fights, price shocks and environmental damage. “Without a shared framework, we risk deepening global inequalities, triggering unnecessary resource conflicts and undermining our ability to deliver on climate goals,” says Ali, who also leads the Critical Minerals and Inclusive Energy Transition program at the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health. The proposed Trust would use independent checks—similar to those used in nuclear safety—to make sure countries are meeting environmental and social standards. Each nation would keep control of its own resources but agree to prioritize sales of those minerals at market prices so that they can be used for clean energy infrastructure. The article builds on a TED Talk that Ali gave last year as part of the Rockefeller Foundation's "Big Bets" initiative. Ali is available for interviews on the topic and can be reached by clicking on his profile.

Can AI save our oyster reefs? A team of scientists put it to the test

With global oyster populations having declined by more than 85% from historical levels, restoring and monitoring these critical ecosystems is more urgent than ever. But traditional monitoring methods aren’t cutting it. A team of researchers that included the University of Delaware's Art Trembanis have taken a new approach, testing an AI model designed to recognize live oysters from underwater images. The findings? The AI model, called ODYSSEE, was faster than human experts and non-expert annotators, processing in just 40 seconds what took humans up to 4.5 hours. But it wasn’t yet as accurate. In fact, the tool misidentified more live oysters than both groups of human annotators. Still, the team found that ODYSEE has real potential to monitor reefs in real time. Why does this matter? As climate change, pollution and overharvesting continue to pressure coastal environments, more precise and non-invasive monitoring tools like ODYSSEE could become essential to restoration efforts and environmental policy. Trembanis can discuss this new tool and its ability to identify live oysters without disturbing the reef. His expertise in oceanography, engineering and robotics expertise was key to the team's work. The results, published in the journal Frontiers, offer both caution and hope in the race to improve ocean monitoring with emerging technologies. To set up an interview with Trembanis, visit his profile and click on the contact button.

Video Insights: What Investors Need to Know About Shifting Tariffs

Unprecedented uncertainty brought on by quickly evolving tariff policies is creating challenges and additional considerations for investors and other capital providers. In this video, J.S. Held experts Brian Gleason, John Peiserich, James E. Malackowski, and Tom Burns – experts in turnaround, supply chain, intellectual property, and political risk – pose twelve questions to private equity sponsors and their portfolio companies to explore amid the continued tariff uncertainty. Restructuring and operations expert Brian Gleason has managed or participated in more than 300 turnaround engagements over the past 29 years and applies the principles utilized in J.S. Held's work advising companies in crisis. In the video, Brian addresses three essential questions that investors should consider with their portfolio companies during this period of unprecedented tariff-policy-induced uncertainty: 1) How have tariffs impacted business forecasting and investor confidence? 2) What are the key actions portfolio company management teams should take during tariff-induced uncertainty? 3) What leadership strategies are recommended for navigating the economic stress caused or complicated by tariffs? Business intelligence expert Tom Burns has extensive experience leading intelligence collection assignments for financial institutions, law firms, and blue-chip multinationals around the world. Tom explores the additional pre-acquisition diligence essential amid tariff uncertainty in the video. He addresses three questions, including: 4) How have tariffs changed the due diligence process in acquisitions? 5) What is transshipment, and why is it a concern for investors and their portfolio companies? 6) What steps should investors take to manage tariff-related risks in acquisitions? Capital projects, environmental risk, and compliance expert John Peiserich has over 30 years of experience advising heavy industry and law firms throughout the country with a focus on Oil & Gas, Energy, and Public Utilities. In the video, John reflects upon: 7) Why is it important for investors to assess the owner-operator's understanding of supply chain risks? 8) How have tariffs introduced new challenges for large-scale projects? 9) What is the potential impact of supply chain and tariff-related delays on investment outcomes? James E. Malackowski has a unique perspective on intellectual property litigation risk, strategic management, and monetization, which benefits from his prior work at a leading private equity firm. In the video, he advises investors and their portfolio companies to consider: 10) How do tariffs influence decisions around manufacturing relocation and intellectual property? 11) What IP-related risks should companies consider when relocating manufacturing operations? 12) What steps should investors take to ensure IP is properly managed in response to tariffs? The J.S. Held Tariffs and Trade Series is a collection of intelligence, insights, and action plans that inform strategic business decision-making and foster resilience in an increasingly volatile global market. To view more of our Tariffs and Trade Series expert analysis and commentary, visit: Looking to know more or connect with John Peiserich and James E. Malackowski? Simply click on either expert's icon now to arrange an interview today. If you are looking to connect with Brian Gleason or Tom Burns - contact : Kristi L. Stathis, J.S. Held +1 786 833 4864 Kristi.Stathis@JSHeld.com

In the News: School Choice and Vouchers

A Trump administration proposal to use the federal tax code to offer vouchers that students could use to attend private secular or religious schools has reignited public debate over school choice. David Figlio, a professor of economics and education at the University of Rochester whose research on vouchers has been widely cited, is available to offer insight on the matter. A recent study he co-authored on a school choice program in Ohio showed that low-income children in the program were likely to realize significant and positive academic benefits. Figlio warned in an interview with National Public Radio, though, that the results need to be taken “with a grain of salt.” “This program was a highly targeted program that bears little resemblance to the statewide, universal vouchers that are being rolled out today,” he said. Figlio’s research spans a wide range of education and health policy issues, from school accountability and standards to welfare policy and the intersection between education and health. Contact Figlio by clicking on his profile.

Covering the latest developments in Iran? Our experts are here to help with your coverage.

Iran’s nuclear program remains one of the most closely watched issues in international security, diplomacy, and nonproliferation. Originally launched in the 1950s with Western support, the program has since evolved into a focal point of global concern over nuclear weapons, regional stability, and international trust. As negotiations continue to stall and enrichment capabilities increase, understanding the historical context, scientific progress, and geopolitical consequences of Iran’s nuclear ambitions is critical for public awareness. This topic provides journalists with high-impact angles spanning diplomacy, science, and security. Key story angles include: Origins and Evolution of the Program: Tracing the nuclear program from its U.S.-backed beginnings under the Shah to its secret expansion after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal): Examining the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, its successes, its unraveling after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, and current attempts to revive it. Scientific Advances and Enrichment Capacity: Analyzing Iran’s current uranium enrichment levels, centrifuge technology, and what experts say about its "breakout time." Regional and Global Security Concerns: Investigating how Iran’s program affects Middle Eastern tensions, Israeli security policy, and broader nuclear proliferation risks. Diplomatic Stalemates and Sanctions: Reviewing the impact of international sanctions, diplomatic efforts by the EU, China, and Russia, and the political dynamics within Iran. The Risk of Escalation or Military Conflict: Exploring scenarios that could lead to open confrontation and what military analysts say about preemptive strikes or deterrence strategies. Iran’s nuclear program is not just a regional issue—it’s a global flashpoint at the intersection of science, diplomacy, and international law. Journalists covering this story have an opportunity to unpack a decades-long narrative with renewed urgency. Connect with our experts about Iran’s Nuclear Program: History, Progress, and Global Risks: Check out our experts here : www.expertfile.com

ExpertSpotlight: American Steel Tariffs – A Brief History

The history of steel trade and tariffs in the United States is deeply intertwined with the nation’s industrial rise, global economic strategy, and political maneuvering. From the late 19th century through the 21st, steel has symbolized both national strength and international tension. Trade protections—such as tariffs—have been used to shield American steel producers from foreign competition, often sparking international disputes and shaping the direction of U.S. economic policy. This topic matters to the public because it affects manufacturing jobs, infrastructure costs, international relations, and the price of goods in everyday life. Understanding steel tariffs offers a lens into larger debates about globalization, economic nationalism, and trade fairness. Key story angles that may interest a broad audience include: The origins of U.S. steel tariffs: Tracing the first protective tariffs in the late 1800s and their role in America’s industrial expansion. The role of steel in national security and economic independence: Investigating why steel has been labeled a “strategic industry” across administrations. Tariff flashpoints: Highlighting major tariff battles—such as the 2002 and 2018 steel tariffs—and their economic and diplomatic consequences. Impact on American manufacturing and jobs: Examining whether tariffs have protected or hindered employment in steel-producing regions. Global trade tensions: Exploring how tariffs have affected relationships with allies such as Canada, the EU, and China. Future of steel trade policy: Discussing evolving views on protectionism, globalization, and climate-linked trade strategies. Connect with our experts about the history of tariffs and steel in America: Check out our experts here : www.expertfile.com