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It seemed all of America tuned in Tuesday evening at 9 PM Eastern to hear just what President Donald Trump had to say as he spoke to a nation caught in the middle of a government shutdown. With federal services all but stagnant across the country, and those employees considered essential forced to work without pay, most expected a pitch to a nation that included a solution and ideally a moderated and mature speech. After all, there is a lot at stake for every American who is either employed by, engaged with or in need of the federal government. However, that was not the case. What did come was a short speech that was long on rhetoric, blame and ultimatums instead of resolution. In the past, when addressing the nation, a President would do so to share information of national importance, like Obama’s speech about the killing of Osama Bin Laden or Ronald Reagan speaking to America about the Iran-Contra Hearings. These were big deals with a significant message. Speaking with Canada’s national broadcaster, University of Mary Washington’s Stephen Farnsworth had this observation to share. “By taking such partisan swipes from the grandeur of the Oval Office during a prime-time address, Trump runs the risk of "overexposure," or of being accused of cheapening a time-honoured tradition, said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor with the University of Mary Washington who specializes in presidential communications. It's not clear whether the president's speech will have any impact on the border security stalemate. But Trump's speech may even have implications for future Oval Office broadcasts, Farnsworth said.” So, what was gained by the address? Did President Trump essentially ‘cry-wolf’ and cheapen the significance of a national address? Or did it serve his purpose and support his base? And, did the Democrats blow an opportunity to effectively respond? There will be a lot of analysis of Tuesday’s TV-time and that’s where the experts from the University of Mary Washington can help. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. A published author and a media ‘go-to’ on U.S. politics, he is available to speak with media regarding this issue. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Election 2018: Wake Forest University experts
From state constitutional amendments to immigration, Wake Forest faculty experts can comment on a variety of 2018 midterm election-related topics. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ John Dinan, professor of political science and international affairs North Carolina Politics State Constitutional Amendments Congressional Redistricting Author of the book, “State Constitutional Politics: Governing by Amendment in the American States,” Dinan is available to comment on amendments appearing on the 2018 ballot in North Carolina and in 28 other states. From voter ID to judicial vacancies, he can place particular amendments in nationwide and historical perspective. Based on his research, he can also address the arguments and issues that routinely surface in campaigns supporting and opposing various amendments. Dinan closely follows North Carolina political races and teaches courses on campaigns and elections, state politics and Congress and policymaking. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Allan Louden, professor of communication Political Campaigns and Advertising Political Debates Social Media and Politics From presidential debates to political advertising, Louden has provided expert commentary and analysis for a wide range of national and regional media outlets. He follows political advertising and candidates’ debates in presidential, Senate, gubernatorial and high-profile House races. Under Louden’s leadership, Wake Forest University’s debate team won the national debate tournament. He can comment on political advertising strategies and how social media, including viral videos, impacts races. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ John Llewellyn, associate professor of communication Political Speeches Political Scandals Public Apologies Llewellyn focuses on political speeches and rhetoric. He is a scholar of rhetoric whose work includes analyzing persuasive language from the nation’s most prominent politicians, coaches and civil rights leaders. A former speechwriter and public information officer, Llewellyn also specializes in crisis communication, having studied the intersection of politics and public relations for nearly 30 years. He can also comment on political scandals and public apologies. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Betina Wilkinson, associate professor of political science and international affairs Latina/o/x Voters Wilkinson can offer insights and commentary on Latino voters for the midterm elections. She is an expert on Latino political behavior in the U.S., studies Latinos in U.S. politics, national and local immigration policy, and racial attitudes among Latinos and other ethnic groups. She can discuss the demographics and election-related priorities of Latinos. Wilkinson authored a chapter “North Carolina Latinos: And Emerging Influential Electorate in the South” in the book “The Pivotal Role of the Latino Electorate in the 2012 Election.” She is also the author of “Partners or Rivals? Power and Latino, Black and White Relations in the 21st Century.” ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Katy Harriger, professor of politics and international affairs Young Voters Federal Special Prosecutor/Robert Mueller U.S. Supreme Court A leading national expert on the federal special prosecutor, Harriger can address the influence the Mueller investigation may have on the 2018 elections. She is the author of The Special Prosecutor in American Politics and is regularly interviewed by national media outlets on the use of federal special prosecutors in American government. Harriger also studies political participation and voting among young people (including college students) and is the co-author of “Speaking of Politics: Preparing College Students for Democratic Citizenship through Deliberative Dialogue.” She can provide expert commentary on the latest Supreme Court developments and how they will likely impact midterm elections. She co-authored the book “American Constitutional Law” published in 2017. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Michael Pisapia, assistant professor of politics and international affairs Gender and Politics Teacher Protests Political Parties and Education Reform Women Running for Congress Gender Equality and Constitutional Law Kavanaugh Hearings Pisapia studies American political development with a focus on women, gender and politics and can comment on tensions between liberal and conservative social groups and the unprecedented number of women who are engaged in political movements, and who are seeking elective office this year. He can also address partisan polarization around education policy, religious freedom and, sex and gender equality in constitutional law, including the significance of the Kavanaugh hearings in the context of the #metoo Movement. Pisapia is working on a book titled, “Educating a Nation: Women’s Empowerment and the Shape of American Federalism. He won the 2013 Carrie Chapman Catt Prize for scholarship on women and politics. He teaches courses on American politics and political thought. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Hana Brown, associate professor of sociology and Gale Faculty Fellow Immigration Brown studies the effects of immigration and racial divisions on policy outcomes and the micro-level effects of state actions on the lives of racial minorities and immigrants. Her research also focuses on the political origins and political consequences of social inequalities. She teaches courses on political sociology, social inequality, and race and ethnicity in politics. ___________________________________________________________________________________________
There is no shortage of forecasting leading up to tomorrow's midterm elections -- what might very well be a once-in-a-generation event. Ask anyone who gets paid professionally to work in politics. But it’s not always about signs, speeches and rallies – there’s voter analysis and plain old math required to accurately predict an outcome to any election. Experts at the University of Mary Washington have developed a statistical model that uses the 2017 Virginia governor's election to predict that Democrats will pick up 44 seats tomorrow. If this prediction is correct, the experts argue two things: Virginia is the most important state in the nation and can tell us everything we need to know about future elections. And all of the events and "game-changers" don't matter. Trump's tweets and erratic behavior don't matter. Elections are easily predicted by simple fundamental things like presidential approval (in 2017) and what swing states like Virginia have to say. This was all done exactly a year ago. Chad Murphy is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Mary Washington and he has designed this prediction model. Chad is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Can white evangelicals still swing the midterms?
Evangelicals overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. And they overwhelmingly prefer Republican candidates in the midterms. They’re also reliable voters -- and support for Trump among white evangelicals remained at an all-time high with just days to go. Democrats, on the other hand, will rely on a less-certain electorate of young and diverse voters. This could make the difference in Tuesday's outcome. “Social conservatives could swing important races across the country if other voters don’t turn out in the numbers Democrats are hoping for,” writes Dylan Scott on Vox.com, which called white evangelicals “the sleeping giant of the midterms.” Still, according to The New York Times: “Young evangelicals are questioning the typical ties between evangelicalism and Republican politics. Many said it had caused schisms within their families. And many described a real struggle with an administration they see as hostile to immigrants, Muslims, L.G.B.T.Q. people, and the poor. They feel it reflects a loss of humanity, which conflicts with their spiritual call.” Emile Lester, assistant professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, is an expert in religion and politics whose research published by the First Amendment Center has been featured in The New York Times, The American Interest, USA Today and on C-Span, NPR and various other media outlets around the nation. Emile is available to speak with reporters about the political behavior of evangelical Christian voters. Just click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Close races coal country! Our expert can help explain what might happen in Virginia this Tuesday
This Tuesday may be the most watch midterms in decades. Though it is quickly coming cliché to say this might be the ‘most important’ election to date…it is definitely the most important election since the last election. In Virginia – it’s a fight for key Congressional seats as well as for Senate. The thing to keep in mind is, midterm voters are not the same group as general election voters, in Virginia, it’s the seniors vote that shows up and demands to be heard. That could play a big part in the re-election efforts of form Vice Presidential candidate and current Senator, Tim Kaine. As well, with President Trump keeping his commitment to coal – will that play a part? There are many issues at play this week in Virginia that will impact not just the state, but potentially the country. That’s where our experts can help. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. A published author and a media ‘go-to’ on U.S. politics, he is available to speak with media regarding this issue. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Closing the gender gap - A record number of female candidates are on the ballot this Tuesday
There’s been an enormous amount of attention put on the 2018 midterm elections. As a divided America competes for control of both Congress and the Senate – this election has seen a solid roster of candidates looking to represent both sides of the aisle in Washington. Another positive trend that has emerged has been the number of female candidates coming forward for election. In a piece written for Vox, by University of Mary Washington’s Rosalyn Cooperman – some impressive numbers were shown, however the disparity of female candidates between the two parties can not be ignored. "While women comprise 43 percent of Democratic candidates in 2018 congressional general elections, they make up only 22 percent of Republican Senate candidates and only 13 percent of Republican House candidates. While Democratic women won House primaries at rates 20 percentage points higher than Democratic men, Republican women and men won House primaries at similar rates. Currently, 73 percent of the women serving in Congress are Democrats. While 2018 may be a record-breaking year for women candidates in many ways, the midterm elections are unlikely to significantly alter the longstanding party gap among women officeholders." So, what can be done to close the gender gap among Republicans? Is it time parties considered parity or focused more on recruiting viable female candidates? Are women discouraged from running, and if so why? There are many questions to be answered here and that’s where our experts can help. Rosalyn Cooperman, associate professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and member of Gender Watch 2018, is an expert on women in politics. Rosalyn is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview.
Midterms - A referendum or reset from 2016?
It’s coming to America with the hype of an old-fashioned prize fight. Pundits have been speculating, party officials have been spinning and most of us have been guessing about what the outcome of the 2018 midterm elections will look like. Can we expect wholesale change in either House? Is this really a referendum on the Trump administration? And if Democrats seize control of Congress will it mean two years of stalemates or will an agenda surface to keep America moving forward? Or…if there is no actually change of power and the deck chairs essentially remain unshuffled in Congress and the Senate – is the confirmation that despite the outcries from the Left, America is content with the current administration’s agenda? There are many issues at play this week such as voter turnout, the urban/rural divide and if news coverage does swayed opinions. And, that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. A published author and a media ‘go-to’ on U.S. politics, he is available to speak with media regarding this issue. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Terror sways voters - just not the way terrorists want
Those hoping to use fear to sway elections are in for a shock come election day. Terrorist attacks meant to suppress voter turnout — like the ethnically and racially-motivated attacks in Pittsburgh and Louisville, Kentucky in October — often have the opposite effect according to a study published by Augusta University researcher Dr. Lance Hunter. The study, published in “Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression” in 2017, examined voter turnout following terrorist attacks in seven major urban centers across the United States over the course of four decades. The study found that attacks not only increase voter turnout, but that the severity of an attack may also impact how more voters show up at the polls. “Severity was measured as the number of individuals wounded in attacks and the amount of property value damage that occurred due to attacks,” said Hunter, assistant professor of Political Science in the Katherine Reese Pamplin College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences. “We found that more severe terrorist attacks were associated with higher voter turnout.” The frequency of terror attacks also increased voter turnout, with every 10 attacks contributing to a 1.7 percent increase in turnout for gubernatorial elections and a 1.8 percent turnout for senate elections. “When the terrorist attacks variable was set at its minimum level (0 attacks) expected voter turnout was 28% for gubernatorial elections and 30% for senatorial elections,” Hunter said. “However, expected voter turnout increased to 43% for gubernatorial elections and 44% for senatorial elections as the number of terrorist attacks increased to its maximum level (80). Hunter attributed these findings to the notion that more severe terrorist attacks tend to have a greater psychological impact on citizens. That impact, he theorized, leads citizens of affected areas to pay greater attention to their political environment and encourages them to vote in greater numbers. “In other words, terrorism makes politics more salient for citizens,” he said. “As they become more attuned to the politics of the day, they are more likely to turnout to vote.” The data, which looked at elections held from 1970 to 2012, found that the type of election did not lessen or increase voter turnout following a terrorist attack. Voters in affected areas turned out in greater numbers for both midterm and presidential elections. Voter turnout is typically higher in presidential elections, regardless of attacks. Contact Nick Garrett at (706) 993-6411 or ngarret1@augusta.edu to schedule an interview with Dr. Hunter on this topic.
“When in doubt, choose a different costume,” Baylor expert says Megyn Kelly, host of NBC’s “Megyn Kelly Today,” is facing national criticism for her suggestion during a roundtable discussion this week that it was OK for white people to dress in blackface for Halloween. After two days of backlash, media accounts reveal that the future of her career is in question. But the questions she raised regarding blackface and cultural appropriation should be addressed, especially as Halloween approaches, said Mia Moody-Ramirez, Ph.D., professor of journalism, public relations and new media in Baylor University’s College of Arts & Sciences. She is a nationally known expert on mass media representations of minorities, women and other underrepresented groups and coauthored the new book "From Blackface to Black Twitter: Reflections on Black Humor, Race, Politics, & Gender." Moody-Ramirez said people need to understand the historical significance of blackface to grasp its negative reception today. “When you know better, you do better,” she said. At its base form, she said, blackface is the use of makeup by a nonblack person to appear black. She added that many people do not understand why the seemingly simple act of a white person darkening his skin like a black person at Halloween – even if it’s an act to honor a favorite entertainer or sports figure – can be offensive. “Dressing in blackface during Halloween is inappropriate because the blackface tradition is founded upon the enactment of demeaning stereotypes of black people,” Moody-Ramirez explained. “Blackface has been frowned upon since the blackface minstrel shows of 18th and 19th centuries when various aspects of African/African American culture were appropriated and used for profit. Dressing up in blackface invokes representations of unflattering images of blacks as lazy, unintelligent and criminal in nature.” Yet the issue is bigger than blackface. Any cultural appropriation – defined as the adoption of elements of a minority culture by members of the dominant culture – can be deemed inappropriate and offensive. “Cultural appropriation is distinct from equal cultural exchange because of the presence of power inequities that are a consequence of oppression,” Moody-Ramirez said. “Cultural appropriation is important to consider during Halloween because this is the time of year when we are most likely to dress up in a costume that is representative of another culture.” Common cultural appropriation missteps include darkening one’s face, wearing ethnic garb and/or dressing up to provoke laughter rather than show respect for a group/person, she said. “When considering a costume, think of whether it would show honor or disrespect for a group/person,” Moody-Ramirez advised. “If you don’t know the meaning of the ethnic attire you are considering for Halloween, you shouldn’t wear it. For instance, tribal markings, headdresses and turbans would not be appropriate costume attire because they are tied to a specific ceremony or religious meaning.” Showing respect for other cultures should include honoring their traditions. “Some cultures have laws that ban or restrict individuals from wearing religious attire in public places. Other cultures save certain attire for special ceremonies and honors,” Moody-Ramirez said. Moody-Ramirez offered the following tips to consider when choosing a Halloween costume this year. Avoid dressing in a costume that will reflect another ethnicity or culture. Choose something that is fun and tasteful – animals, movie characters (without darkening your skin), ghosts, ghouls, etc. If you dress like someone of a different ethnicity/culture, don’t darken your face or emphasize features like eyes, teeth or noses. Think about whether the costume will be perceived as tasteful or tasteless. Use the grandmother test. If you post it on social media, would your grandmother be proud or disappointed? “When in doubt,” she said, “choose a different costume.” ABOUT MIA MOODY-RAMIREZ, Ph.D. Mia Moody-Ramirez, Ph.D., is the director of graduate studies, director of American studies and professor of journalism, public relations and new media in the Baylor University College of Arts & Sciences. Her research emphasizes mass media representations of women, minorities and other underrepresented groups. She recently coauthored the book "From Blackface to Black Twitter: Reflections on Black Humor, Race, Politics, & Gender." Other books include: “The Obamas and Mass Media: Race, Gender, Religion, and Politics (Palgrave Macmillan) with Dr. Jannette Dates, and “Black and Mainstream Press’ Framing of Racial Profiling: A Historical Perspective” (University Press of America). Ramirez is head of the Minorities and Communication division of the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication (AEJMC), which is committed to advancing research, teaching and professional freedom and responsibility scholarship and initiatives that explore the relationship between racial and ethnic minorities and mass communication. In August, she was presented with AEJMC’s Lionel Barrow Jr. Award for Distinguished Achievement in Diversity Research and Education and also was recognized as one of nine Institute for Diverse Leadership in Journalism and Communication Fellows. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 17,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 80 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT BAYLOR’S COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s oldest and largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and seven academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 coursestaught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit www.baylor.edu/artsandsciences.
Ivanka to the United Nations? Ask our experts if it is possible!
One of the few shining stars is fading from the Washington skyline – and Nikki Haley’s departure as America’s Ambassador to the United Nations has the beltway speculating on her replacement. President Trump had eyebrows raised and tongues wagging when he trial-ballooned his daughter Ivanka as a suitable replacement. There’s also talk of Dina Powell, the well respected former Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy to President Donald Trump. But who else is on the list and how key of a role is this as America reshapes its foreign policy. There are a lot of questions and a lot of educated guessing going on right now and that’s where the experts from Cedarville University can help. Dr. Glen Duerr’s expertise and research interests include nationalism and secession, comparative politics and international relations theory. Dr. Duerr is available to speak to media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
