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Tariffs and Trade Series - The Potential Impacts of Tariffs and Global Trade Shifts

This is the first installment in a series examining the multifaceted impacts of tariff and trade policies. By delving into the nuances of these policies, we aim to provide valuable insights and perspectives that will inform strategic business decision-making and foster resilience in an increasingly volatile global market. Future papers in this series will explore the specific implications for key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and construction, offering targeted analysis and recommendations to help businesses navigate and thrive amidst evolving trade landscapes. The global trade landscape is experiencing rapid shifts driven by escalating tariffs, geopolitical realignments, and supply chain disruptions. In North America, businesses must navigate changing US trade policies, evolving trade agreements such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and the broader implications of international trade tensions. These developments may have significant economic implications which impact supply chains, regulatory compliance, financial strategies, and heighten geopolitical risk. Trade policies across the world are being redefined, with tariffs increasingly used as economic and political tools. The US, China, and the European Union are at the center of these shifts, reshaping global supply chains and trade routes. Businesses must reassess their sourcing strategies, financial models, and regulatory compliance efforts in response to these evolving dynamics. In North America, the US has intensified its use of tariffs, impacting trade with Canada, Mexico, and numerous global partners. While these policies aim to boost domestic industries, they have introduced supply chain challenges and regulatory complexities. As a result, companies must proactively adapt to maintain operational efficiency and financial stability. This article examines the challenges and opportunities that may arise from these trade shifts and provides insights for businesses to mitigate risks and maintain competitiveness. At J.S. Held, we help businesses navigate these challenges by providing insights into regulatory changes, trade risks, and strategic adaptations to ensure long-term resilience. "With the sweeping April 2 tariff announcement, U.S. trade policy has entered a new phase. One where national security, economic leverage, and regulatory unpredictability intersect. Businesses are now navigating not just targeted tariffs, but a universal cost layer that may touch nearly every sector. The urgency to adapt through exemption strategies, supply chain restructuring, and trade compliance has never been greater." The full report is accessible below, and is a must read for anyone covering the impacts of the tariffs announced by President Trump on April 02, 2025. Looking to know more or connect with Andrea Korney? Simply click on the expert's icon now to arrange an interview today. For any other media inquiries - contact : Kristi L. Stathis, J.S. Held +1 786 833 4864 Kristi.Stathis@JSHeld.com

ExpertSpotlight: History of Yemen and the Houthi Rebels

The history of Yemen and the rise of the Houthi rebels is essential to understanding one of the world’s most complex humanitarian and geopolitical crises. Once considered a crossroads of ancient trade, Yemen has in recent decades become a focal point of conflict, regional power struggles, and human rights challenges. The conflict involving the Houthi movement has had global ramifications—from maritime security and oil trade routes to civilian displacement and famine. This topic matters to the public because it highlights the intersection of war, diplomacy, and humanitarian need, while prompting critical questions about international responsibility, peace-building, and regional stability. Key story angles that may interest a broad audience include: The roots and rise of the Houthi movement: Tracing the group’s origins, ideology, and evolution into a key political and military force in Yemen. Regional power dynamics: Analyzing the involvement of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other actors in fueling or resolving the conflict. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen: Investigating the scale of famine, disease outbreaks, displaced populations, and access to aid. The role of the international community: Exploring arms sales, ceasefire negotiations, and accountability in the context of international law. Maritime security and global trade: Understanding how conflict in Yemen affects Red Sea shipping routes and international energy markets. The future of peace and governance: Examining potential pathways to a political resolution and the reconstruction of a stable Yemeni state. Connect with an expert about Yemen and the Houthi rebels: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com

'R' Words and'D' Words - Our Economy Experts are Here to Help Tell the Difference

Economic downturns can have profound effects on businesses, employment, and financial markets, but not all downturns are the same. While recessions are common and often short-term, economic depressions are far more severe and prolonged, with long-lasting global consequences. Understanding the differences between these two economic phenomena and their underlying causes is critical for policymakers, businesses, and the public as they navigate financial uncertainty. With recent concerns over economic slowdowns, rising inflation, and shifting global markets, this topic remains highly relevant. Key story angles include: What Defines a Recession vs. a Depression? Examining the economic indicators that distinguish a recession from a depression, including GDP contraction, unemployment rates, and market performance. Historical Economic Downturns: Comparing past recessions and depressions, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s and the 2008 financial crisis, to understand patterns and recovery strategies. Causes of Economic Recessions and Depressions: Investigating key triggers such as financial crises, inflation, policy missteps, global trade disruptions, and pandemics. Impact on Everyday People and Businesses: Exploring how economic downturns affect job markets, wages, consumer spending, and small businesses. Government Interventions and Recovery Strategies: Analyzing the role of central banks, stimulus packages, interest rate adjustments, and fiscal policies in mitigating economic downturns. The Future of Economic Stability: Discussing current risks and potential warning signs for future recessions or depressions, and how governments and businesses can prepare. With economic uncertainty always a concern, understanding the factors that drive recessions and depressions is essential for making informed decisions at both the individual and policy levels. Connect with an expert about the economy: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com

Supply chain worries?

With a trade war that sees steep tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico - various industries across the continent are scrambling to figure out how to conduct cross-border business in the wake of President Trump's new policies on trade. For many industries with production lines that crisscross the border, there's concerns about how to prosper or function in the future. Among Detroit brands, GM's Chevrolet and GMC pickups, along with Stellantis's Ram, are more exposed to Trump's taxes than Ford because both build large numbers of pickups in Mexico. Ford builds its F-series pickups in the United States - but also makes some truck engines in Canada, underscoring the web of economic interdependence among the three North America trading partners. Almost no American vehicle is made from solely American parts, industry research shows. Barclays bank analysts estimate that Mexico provides up to 40% of the parts in U.S. vehicles and Canada more than 20%. Suppliers say they will have to cover some of the tariff costs and will likely see an additional hit if consumer demand weakens from rising vehicle prices. Automakers and suppliers also worry about the effects of tariffs on vehicle components that bounce across borders before reaching their final destination. Companies worry that such parts could be taxed with every border crossing, although Trump has not clarified his policy in such cases. March 05 - Reuters Industry insiders are saying companies need to adapt their strategies immediately. To become more agile, companies are increasingly turning to advanced supply chain solutions. Modern platforms provide end-to-end visibility, helping businesses map complex, inter-connected supply chains made up of multiple tiers and assess risks associated with tariffs or regulatory changes. These tools enable companies to model the financial impact of different scenarios, offering data-driven insights for supplier diversification or regional sourcing strategies.  March 06- Supply Chain Management Review Despite the 30 day reprieve for automakers, companies are still waiting and figuring out how to adapt. If you're a journalist covering tariffs and the trade war and how the supply chain might be impacted, Steven Carnovale can help. Steven is a supply chain strategist specializing in interfirm networks, risk management and global sourcing/production networks. Steven is available to speak with media. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today

The Battle Begins - How Long will Trump's Trade Wars Last Between China, Canada and Mexico?

It has begun.  March 04 signaled the first day of what could be a long and drawn out trade war between America and it's two closest neighbors and trading partners - Canada and Mexico. President Trump also doubled the tariff he slapped last month on Chinese products to 20%. Markets are reeling, politicians are scrambling and the world is watching to see how the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports will affect consumers and the economy. In Canada, the reaction was swift. Businesses pulled American bourbon, wine and other imported spirits from store shelves along. Canada also threatened to turn off imported power that keeps the lights on and factories running in states like Michigan, Minnesota and New York. As well, Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau announced  immediate retaliatory measures. Trudeau said Canada will not back down from a fight in the face of "completely bogus and completely unjustified" trade action that has the potential to ruin bilateral relations and prompt job losses, economic devastation and higher inflation on both sides of the border. Trudeau has already slapped tariffs on an initial tranche of $30 billion worth of American goods and promised $125 billion more will face levies in three weeks' time. He said more, non-tariff measures are coming if Trump doesn't immediately back down. Trudeau said Trump is doing something "very dumb" by attacking Canada like this, given there will be serious ramifications for American workers and consumers with higher prices on everything from food, car parts and fertilizers to pharmaceuticals and paper products.  March 04 - CBC News Meanwhile, there have been some indicators that President Trump may be willing to negotiate. President Donald Trump will “probably” announce tariff compromise deals with Canada and Mexico soon, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday. The potential agreements would likely involve scaling back at least part of Trump’s brand new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, he added. Lutnick’s comments came minutes after the U.S. stock market limped to a close for a second day of sharp declines, spurred at least in part by investors’ fears that Trump’s aggressive policies will ignite a crippling trade war. After his remarks, U.S. stock futures tied to all three major averages rose. The compromises with Canada and Mexico will likely be revealed as soon as Wednesday, Lutnick said on “Fox Business.” March 04- CNBC News There's a lot of speculation out there - and lingering questions: What key American industries will benefit, which ones will suffer? When and will consumers see price hikes at the stores? Will there be a lasting negative impact felt on the American economy? What does this mean for the USMCA that was currently in place? If you're a journalist covering tariffs and the trade war - then let us help. William J. Luther, Ph.D., is an associate professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University, director of the American Institute for Economic Research’s Sound Money Project, and an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives William is available to speak with media. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today

Trade Wars: Economic Strategy or Risky Gamble for the U.S.?

As global markets become increasingly interconnected, trade wars have emerged as a high-stakes economic strategy with far-reaching consequences. A potential trade conflict between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico—key partners in the North American supply chain—raises critical questions about economic growth, job security, and consumer prices. While proponents argue that tariffs and trade restrictions protect domestic industries, critics warn of rising costs, retaliatory measures, and disruptions to vital industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology. Understanding the impact of trade wars is essential to assessing the future of North American economic relations, with key areas of interest including: The economic implications of tariffs on American businesses, workers, and consumers How a trade war with Canada and Mexico could impact the USMCA agreement and cross-border trade The industries most vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and retaliatory tariffs The historical impact of past trade wars on economic growth and stability The role of globalization and shifting alliances in modern trade policies Potential winners and losers: Which sectors stand to benefit, and which face economic hardship? This issue presents a timely and complex discussion about economic policy, international relations, and the future of North American trade. Connect with an expert about trade and trade wars: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com

Canada’s RRSP Program Has Too Many Jobs

Summary: Since its inception in 1957, the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) has been a cornerstone of Canada’s retirement system. However, the RRSP has taken on roles far beyond its original mandate, notably through the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) and the Lifelong Learning Plan (LLP). Although these programs provide short-term benefits, they significantly damage the long-term health of Canadians' retirement savings. This article explores how these additional roles are sabotaging retirement savings, highlights statistics about the state of RRSPs today, and discusses the disastrous impact these trends will have on future retirees. While listening to a recent economic presentation by Don Drummond, TD Bank's Chief Economist at the Mortgage Professionals Canada conference, the following stat stood out to me: "Median RRSP savings are $146K (RRSPs have been in existence for 6 decades)" I was stunned by how low this value was. Even with a government pension, in today's economic climate, to achieve a successful retirement, we need more than $146K saved. This prompted me to explore how the average value of RRSPs in Canada could be so low after some of us have had as much as 60 years to save. The average senior aged 65 in Canada receives $18,197 per year from OAS and CPP. If qualified for GIS, they would receive another $15,186 annually, for a total of $33,338 annually. This isn't much income, especially for homeowners who must pay for property taxes, utilities, upkeep, and maintenance. How it All Began At inception, the RRSP was called a Registered Retirement Annuity and was created in 1957. At the time, Canadians could contribute up to 10% of their income to a maximum of $2,500 annually. The goal was to give all Canadians the same tax benefits as members of registered employer-sponsored pension plans. Benefits of the RRSP Plan 1. Tax-Deferral: Contributions to an RRSP are tax-deductible, which can reduce your tax bill. 2. Tax-Free Growth: Your savings grow tax-free while the money is in the plan. 3. Retroactive: You can carry forward any unused contribution room to future years. The Multitasking Disaster Studies show that people are dreadful at multitasking; the same is true of government programs. Here is where the program went wrong. In 1992, the Home Buyer’s Plan (HBP) was made more flexible, which allowed first-time homebuyers to withdraw RRSP funds to buy a house. Then, in 1999, the Lifelong Learning Plan (LPP) was introduced, which permitted withdrawals to pay for education. The Home Buyers' Plan (HBP) was not introduced in 1957 alongside the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) creation. Instead, the HBP was introduced in 1992 as a federal initiative to help Canadians buy their first homes by allowing them to withdraw funds from their RRSPs without tax penalties as long as they met specific conditions. Here's a timeline of crucial HBP withdrawal limits since its inception: Timeline of HBP and LLP Withdrawal Limits: 1992 - Introduction of the HBP • Maximum Withdrawal Limit: $20,000 per individual. • Purpose: To help first-time homebuyers purchase or build a home. 1999 – Introduction of Lifelong Learning Plan (LLP) • The annual withdrawal limit is $10,000 per individual • The lifetime withdrawal maximum is $20,000 per individual 2009 - First HBP increase • New Limit: $25,000 per individual. • The increase was introduced as part of federal budget changes to reflect rising housing costs. 2019 - Second HBP Increase • New Limit: $35,000 per individual. • Announced in the 2019 federal budget to support affordability for first-time homebuyers. 2019 -HBP Enhancement for Life Events • The HBP was expanded to allow individuals experiencing a marriage or common-law partnership breakdown to participate, even if they were not first-time homebuyers. 2024 - Recent increase • New Limit: $60,000 per individual. • The increase was introduced as part of federal budget changes to reflect rising costs. A Flawed Strategy The Home Buyers' Plan (HBP) and Lifelong Learning Plan (LLP) were introduced in Canada as tools to make housing and education more accessible. While well-intentioned, these programs effectively allow individuals to borrow from their future retirement savings—a strategy that can have significant negative consequences. Ask any high school economics student, and they will tell you that compromising two of the three main elements (principle and time) in investing growth will lead to a disappointing return. Here is the formula: principle X interest + time = compounded return. Are We Borrowing From the Future to Pay for Today? The Problem with the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP): Addressing Housing Affordability at the Expense of Retirement The HBP permits individuals to withdraw up to $60,000 from their RRSP to buy a first home. In an environment of rising house prices, this measure may help buyers cobble together a down payment, but it drains retirement funds. The funds are unavailable to grow tax-free over decades, diminishing the compounding returns essential for retirement security. The Problem with the Lifelong Learning Plan (LLP): Financing Education by Sacrificing Retirement The LLP allows up to $20,000 in RRSP withdrawals to fund education, which can help individuals upskill. However, education often doesn’t yield immediate returns, and the withdrawn funds lose their growth potential, including the compounded returns. Why This Harms Future Retirees Issue #1: Loss of Compounding Growth Withdrawals disrupt the power of compounding, which is vital for retirement savings. For example, $35,000 left in an RRSP for 25 years at a 6% annual return could grow to over $150,000. If that same $35,000 were withdrawn 15 years ago and repaid over the same period as required by the HBP program, it would be worth $54,311, a loss of $95,689 Issue #2: Repayment Struggles While repayments are required, life’s expenses (mortgage, childcare, loans) often make it hard to repay on schedule. Failure to repay means the amount withdrawn is added to taxable income, further reducing the effectiveness of the programs. Issue #3: Insufficient Savings Most Canadians are already under-saving for retirement. Encouraging them to dip into their RRSPs exacerbates this shortfall. Two Different Problems.  One Harmful Solution Housing Affordability Rising house prices are driven by supply-demand imbalances, speculation, and policy failures—not a lack of down payments. Increasing the HBP withdrawal limit does nothing to address the root causes of affordability, but it may drive prices higher by giving buyers more purchasing power. Retirement Security Retirement savings should be preserved and grown to ensure financial stability in later years. Programs like HBP and LLP blur the line between short-term needs and long-term planning. Why Would our Government Do This? Political Expediency Housing affordability and access to education are politically sensitive issues. Allowing individuals to tap into their RRSPs is a cost-neutral policy for the government (unlike direct subsidies or programs). Policies like these help politicians get elected or stay in office. And in proper political form, these policies only tell half the story. Vote for us because we will help you buy your first home, which is a great campaign strategy. Vote for us because we will make it look like we help you buy your first home when, in fact, we will set up a program that will allow you to borrow from yourself at the cost of your retirement, which is political suicide. Short-Sighted Economic Policies Policymakers may believe that homeowners and educated individuals are more financially secure, even if their retirement savings are compromised. The logic might be that owning a home or having better job prospects could mitigate future hardship. Assuming Home Equity is a Safety Net The government might assume that homeownership ensures financial stability in retirement. However, this overlooks that rising housing costs often mean seniors have high debt levels or are "house rich but cash poor." The Bigger Problem with the HBP and LLP Programs: No Warnings or Education Given to Canadians Neither the HBP nor the LLP adequately informs individuals of the long-term consequences of their decisions. To make matters worse, the participants of these programs will likely realize the impact once it is too late to take action. People considering retirement are often in their late 50s to early 60s, past their prime saving years. Borrowing from retirement accounts may seem like “borrowing from yourself,” but this lost growth can never be recouped. Many Canadians are not well enough informed to assess these trade-offs, leading to decisions that harm their financial future. In Case You’re Thinking, These Seniors Have Inadequate Savings - But at They At Least their Homes. The HBP and LLP programs may reflect a government view that seniors would be better off owning a home than relying solely on inadequate savings. But this is flawed for a number of reasons: A home is not a liquid asset—it cannot pay for groceries or healthcare. Also,  Seniors with insufficient retirement savings often need help with financial distress despite owning property. They sometimes need reverse mortgages or sell their homes out of desperation. An Unfortunate Misguided Solution Rather than “quick fixes” that appear to solve immediate challenges while creating long-term problems, the Federal government should instead focus on longer-term, systemic solutions For housing: Governments need to curb speculative investments and provide targeted assistance for first-time buyers. Plus they need to focus on programs that increase housing supply, such as income tax incentives for homeowners to build accessory dwelling units (ADUs). These units could be rented out or used for caregivers. Or adopt a policy allowing first-time home buyers to not pay tax on their first $250,000 of income. First-time home buyers could use the tax savings as a down payment. For Education: Governments need to expand grant programs and low-interest loans to prevent reliance on retirement funds.  This will not only help us increase the number of skilled workers to fill critical gaps in vital sectors such as technology, healthcare engineering and the trades.  It will also contribute to a higher GDP and build a more sustainable tax base for future generations. Encouraging Canadians to steal from their future is not a sustainable strategy. Retirement savings should be viewed as sacred - not a piggy bank for solving unrelated issues. Don’t Retire … Re-Wire! Sue

Legality, Next Steps for Canadian Tariffs

Maurice A. Deane School of Law at Hofstra University Professor Julian Ku was quoted in The Globe and Mail article “The best hope for Canada in fighting a trade war with Trump may lie in U.S. courts." “Using IEEPA to impose tariffs has not been done before, so there has never been a court ruling on this question,” said Julian Ku, who studies the interaction of international law and U.S. constitutional law at Hofstra University. Mr. Trump has, however, argued that he is responding to external threats, citing the movement of fentanyl and illegal migrants to the U.S. from Canada, Mexico and China. That is likely to prove a potent defense, Prof. Ku said. “The court has also been deferential to the President on national-security matters, and the language of the statute is very broad, so it is far from clear which way the court would come down on this issue,” he said.

Tariffs are coming - and our experts can help with your coverage

The steel and aluminum industries are fundamental to the strength and stability of the U.S. economy, playing a critical role in infrastructure, manufacturing, and national security. These industries support millions of jobs, drive technological advancements, and serve as key components in everything from automobiles and construction to defense systems and clean energy. As global trade policies, sustainability efforts, and economic shifts impact these sectors, their significance continues to grow, making them a critical topic for public discourse. Journalists covering this issue can explore: The economic impact of steel and aluminum manufacturing on American jobs and industries Trade policies, tariffs, and their effects on domestic production and global competition The role of steel and aluminum in national security and defense manufacturing Innovations in sustainable metal production and efforts to reduce carbon emissions Supply chain challenges and how they affect construction, automotive, and technology sectors The future of American steel and aluminum in a rapidly evolving global economy This topic offers rich opportunities for coverage, highlighting the industries' influence on economic stability, innovation, and national security. Connect with an expert about the aluminum and steel industries: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com

Avian Flu: Understanding the Threat and Global Response

Avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, is a highly contagious viral infection that affects birds but has the potential to spread to humans and other animals. With recent outbreaks raising concerns among health officials worldwide, understanding the origins, transmission, and potential risks of avian flu is critical for public health preparedness. The virus poses significant threats to global food supply chains, economic stability in agriculture, and pandemic prevention efforts. As governments and health agencies monitor the situation, the public must stay informed about the latest developments and protective measures. Key story angles include: Origins and Evolution of Avian Flu: How the virus emerges, mutates, and spreads among birds and humans. Public Health Risks and Prevention Measures: Assessing the likelihood of human transmission and the effectiveness of vaccines and treatments. Economic Impact on Poultry and Agriculture: How outbreaks affect food production, trade restrictions, and industry regulations. Global Response and Preparedness Efforts: What governments and health organizations are doing to contain outbreaks and prevent a pandemic. Wildlife and Environmental Factors: The role of migratory birds in spreading avian flu and the impact of climate change on disease patterns. Lessons from Past Outbreaks: Comparing the current situation to previous bird flu strains and what history teaches us about managing the threat. As concerns over avian flu grow, staying ahead of the science and policy responses will be key to safeguarding public health and economic stability worldwide. Connect with an expert about avian flu: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com