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Data Analysis: Commercial Real Estate Troubles Threaten U.S. Banks

The U.S. banking system is on a precipice as exposures to commercial real estate grow and banks grapple with high interest rates, according to an analysis by a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University. Of the 158 largest banks, 59 in the country are facing exposures to commercial real estate greater than 300% of their total equity capital, as reported in the fourth quarter 2024 regulatory data and shown by the U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Commercial Real Estate screener. “Regulators have been putting pressure on banks to reduce their exposures. However, it’s a very difficult thing to do without sending a signal of weakness to the market and creating more problems,” said Rebel A. Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in FAU’s College of Business. “To get around this, many banks are ‘extending and pretending’ by restructuring their loans.” The U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Real Estate screener, a part of the Banking Initiative at Florida Atlantic University, measures the risk to exposure from commercial real estate at the 158 largest banks in the country with more than $10 billion in total assets. Using publicly available data released quarterly from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) Central Data Repository, Cole calculates each bank’s total CRE exposure as a percentage of the bank’s total equity. Bank regulators view any ratio over 300% as excess exposure to CRE, which puts the bank at greater risk of failure. Troubled debt restructuring for commercial construction, multifamily, owner-occupied and owner-non-occupied mortgages tripled since 2023. They reached $18 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $6 billion in Q2 2023, according to data from the FFIEC. While non-owner occupied nonfarm, non-residential accounts for more than half of these amounts, there is also serious deterioration in multifamily and commercial construction loans. “Banks choose to extend these loans, hoping interest rates might drop. While the Fed did cut rates,” Cole said. “If a loan is maturing from five years ago in today’s rate environment, rather than refinance it with today’s terms, they will restructure the loan under the same terms from five years ago for another year. This all depends on interest rates falling, which is not likely to happen this year.” Among banks of any size, 1,788 have total CRE exposures greater than 300%, up from 1,697 in Q3; 1,077 have exposures greater than 400%, up from 971 in Q3; 504 have exposures greater than 500%, up from 426 in Q3; 216 have exposures greater than 600%, up from 166 in Q3. For comparison, the aggregate industry total CRE exposure is 132% of the total, unchanged from the third quarter of 2024. Looking to know more? We can help. Rebel Cole is available to speak with media about commercial real estate and the potential threats to the American banking system, Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Understanding waterfowl movement and bird flu

Scores of waterfowl are currently on the move, and experts are worried they could further spread highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu. But these flocks, which can number in the thousands and include Canada geese and snow geese, are of most concern around poultry houses, said University of Delaware’s Christopher Williams. The risk to humans and dogs getting bird flu from geese who inhabit their neighborhoods remains low, Williams said. Williams, a professor wildlife ecology in UD’s College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, explained why this is happening: • Smaller ducks such as blue-winged teal, larger ducks such as mallards, and larger geese like Canada geese and snow geese are heading north to their breeding grounds. • Waterfowl are a primary reservoir for avian influenza viruses, meaning they can harbor bird flu strains viruses, spread them, and in some cases show no signs of disease. They can shed the virus through their saliva, naval secretions, and feces. • Waterfowl serve as the primary vector of avian influenza to the U.S. poultry industry which has affected more than 8 million commercial and backyard chickens and turkeys that have been culled to keep the virus from spreading. “While we are worried about these flocks congregating near poultry houses, the risk of humans getting bird flu from waterfowl remains low,” Williams said. “Further, walking dogs around areas with geese flocks should pose little threat to dogs’ health as avian influenza is very rare in dogs.” Nevertheless, Williams cautions people and dogs to avoid touching sick birds or dead birds. A large segment of the Canada geese population are not migratory, Williams said. They will stick around the Mid-Atlantic year-round and tend to congregate and breed near grocery store parking lots, golf courses and neighborhoods. “Those birds are being drawn to needing two things. No. 1 is they need water including any natural pond or water containment area,” Williams said. “And all the geese species are herbivores, so No. 2 they eat grass. There are places that have both water and grass that will provide ideal nesting habitat for the geese and their chicks.” Reporters can connect with Williams by visiting his profile and clicking on the “contact” button.

Daylight Saving Time: Baylor Sleep Expert Offers Suggestions to Help Adjust to the Change

Daylight saving time, with its one-hour spring forward at 2 a.m. Sunday, March 12, may seem like a small shift of just a single hour, but on a societal level, it has startling effects, says Baylor University sleep researcher Michael Scullin, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology and neuroscience and director of the Sleep Neuroscience and Cognition Laboratory at Baylor. So what are the consequences of this one-hour time shift on our sleep quality and how can we quickly adjust when springing our clocks forward? "Many people not only lose that single hour of sleep," Scullin said, "but also have difficulty over several subsequent nights adjusting their circadian rhythms to the new bed-wake time schedules." For example, parents who have routine bedtimes for their children experience difficulty for the whole family because children will not want to (or be able to) go to bed one hour earlier than their body is used to. "When you couple this bedtime difficulty with the fact that most people have morning school and work schedules that require them to wake up at a set time," Scullin said, "it becomes clear that ‘springing forward’ has a larger consequence than skipping a single hour." The consequences of the spring daylight saving time shift are well documented. Researchers have observed changes in cognitive functioning, increased driving accidents, moodiness and willingness to punish others for mistakes. "Researchers have also documented that acute sleep loss and circadian dysregulation lead to an increase in cardiovascular events," Scullin said. "If someone's cardiovascular health is ‘borderline’ then the springtime shift can be the factor that precipitates a stroke or a myocardial infarction (heart attack)." Scullin offers some simple suggestions to anticipate and adapt to the spring forward shift: Adjust in advance. About a week before the "spring forward," go to bed 15 or 20 minutes earlier each day. Avoid long naps during the day. If you need a nap, take it earlier in the day and for no more than 20 minutes. Bring on the sunlight. Getting more natural sunlight in the morning hours is very beneficial in resetting our biological clock. In some cases, evening melatonin also can help people to adapt to the time change. Scullin has published numerous studies focusing on sleep and brain function, including the connection between sleep and creativity, musical “earworms” and their effect on sleep and how writing a to-do list before you turn in for the night can help you get better sleep. In fact, Scullin was named Baylor’s inaugural Newsmaker of the Year in 2018, after his “to-do list” research was widely covered by media outlets, including ABC’s Good Morning America, TODAY.com, USA TODAY, Discover, LiveScience, HealthDay, BBC Radio and many more, reaching an international circulation and viewership of nearly 1 billion people. Looking to interview or chat with Michael Scullin? Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Expert Research: The Surprising Source of Next-Gen Antibiotics: Oyster Blood

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing concern across the world and it has doctors worried and scientists working hard to find a solution Basically, AMR is when bacteria and viruses no longer respond to antimicrobial medicines. The result is making infections harder to treat and increases the risk of spreading disease. Recently, Texas Christian University researcher Shauna McGillivray commented on exciting new research in this area that was featured in the media: The search for a solution to antimicrobial resistance found something. And researchers found it in a true “it’s always the last place you look” location. Australian oysters. Or more specifically, Australian oyster blood. Antimicrobial proteins and peptides (AMPPs) “… are an exciting area with a lot of potential,” said Shauna McGillivray, professor of biology at TCU with an emphasis on host-pathogen interactions. “[They] are by themselves very potent but, as has been noted in multiple studies, they can also synergize with existing antibiotics, thereby improving efficacy of antibiotics, even in some cases to antibiotics to which there are high levels of resistance.” Feb. 22 -Phamed.com This is an amazing find and could be groundbreaking for the pharmaceutical industry and health care. And if you're looking to know more about this research and what it means for health care - then let us help. Shauna McGillivray, associate professor of biology is available to speak with media about her recent research - simply click on her icon now to arrange an interview today.

Defining Oligarchy: The Fusion of Wealth and Power in American Democracy

Oligarchy is being thrown around a lot these days. But what does the term mean? Is America an oligarchy? And how does oligarchy help explain American democracy today? Political rhetoric scholar Luke Winslow, Ph.D., associate professor of communication at Baylor University and author of  “Oligarchy in America: Power, Justice, and the Rule of the Few,” has traced the evolution of oligarchy in the United States to shed light on how modern oligarchy is reshaping America through the increasing fusion of economic power and political influence. Winslow’s research focuses on how the influence of oligarchy has impacted American political rhetoric, as well as how it is showing up in modern politics and political communications. Defining Oligarchy Oligarchy is a term that most people associate with other countries, but it “is not something that just happens in Russia. It's something that happens everywhere, and it always has,” Winslow said. In the simplest of terms, oligarchy attempts to explain the convergence of economic and political power. Winslow offered four key distinctions on oligarchy: Oligarchy is exclusive. It represents a form of governance focused on preserving the political and economic influence of the wealthy by securing the approval of the rest of the population. “It assumes not everyone is qualified to deliberate, participate and legislate,” Winslow said. When it comes to oligarchy, there is a belief that extreme wealth is equated to intellectual fitness across all domains, including governance. Wealth vs. income. It is important to distinguish between wealth and income. Income covers daily expenses, whereas wealth is more easily used to exert political power. “What truly sets an oligarch apart is the political power their wealth can command,” Winslow said. Understated and subtle. Modern oligarchy operates through persuasion by “enticing rather than commanding citizens and maintaining what seems like an absence from political authority,” Winslow said. It is in this absence that oligarchs can influence indirect political actions, especially since they are not (typically) elected officials and cannot be removed from office. Legal Immunity. Oligarchs have no fear of legal consequences because oligarchy itself is not against the law, Winslow said. The First Amendment protects the right “to petition the Government for a redress of grievances,” legitimizing lobbying and campaign donations. A robust system of campaign contributions and political lobbying – both of which are perfectly legal – can shape media narratives and put pressure on state and local governments. While wealth and politics have always coexisted, oligarchy is about how these forces merge to create a system where the ultra-rich exert undue influence over democratic institutions, Winslow said. “This convergence has long existed in history but is now unfolding in the U.S. more visibly – and perhaps more accepted – than ever before,” he said. Communication of Oligarchy Winslow’s research shows that American society has come to view billionaires as transcendent figures – individuals whose success in business qualifies them to lead in politics – a mindset that is not new. The Gilded Age of the late 19th century saw figures like Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller wield enormous economic and political power, shaping legislation to favor their interests. Winslow’s research traces this historical precedent, suggesting that today’s tech titans are the latest iteration of a long-standing trend. Perhaps the most intriguing question Winslow raises is not just how oligarchy and its fusion of wealth and governance has taken root, but why the American public has been so willing to accept it as natural – perhaps even beneficial. “The arguments being made in public discourse encourage us to go along with it,” he said. “We’re being told, implicitly, that this is just how things work now.” Yet, these practices also reveal how the government serves the narrow interests of the ultra-wealthy, diverting resources from productive economic opportunities for the majority toward political wins that benefit a small, affluent minority, Winslow said. “What's so interesting about oligarchy now is that the cover has been ripped off, the veil has been thrown open and we’re not even hiding the fact that money gets you more influence,” he said. Ultimately, Winslow hopes his work will get people to be curious as to why Americans are now accepting oligarchy in the U.S. “The ways that the extremely wealthy are yielded political power is seemingly acceptable now, and that is a question that we all should be asking,” Winslow said. Looking to know more? Then let us help. To connect with Luke Winslow, simply contact Shelby Cefaratti-Bertin, M.A, Assistant Director of Media and Public Relations now to arrange an interview today.

Expert Research: Social Media's Double-Edged Sword: Study Links Both Active and Passive Use to Rising Loneliness

In an age where social media promises to connect us, a new Baylor University study reveals a sobering paradox – the more time we spend interacting online, the lonelier we may feel. Researchers James A. Roberts, Ph.D., The Ben H. Williams Professor of Marketing in Baylor's Hankamer School of Business, and co-authors Philip Young, Ph.D., and Meredith David, Ph.D., analyzed a study that followed nearly 7,000 Dutch adults for nine years to understand how our digital habits shape well-being. Published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, the Baylor study – The Epidemic of Loneliness: A Nine-Year Longitudinal Study of the Impact of Passive and Active Social Media Use on Loneliness – investigated how social media use impacts loneliness over time. This eye-opening research suggests that the very platforms designed to bring people together contribute to an "epidemic of loneliness." The findings showed that both passive and active social media use were associated with increased feelings of loneliness over time. While passive social media use – like browsing without interaction – predictably led to heightened loneliness, active use – which involved posting and engaging with others – also was linked to increased feelings of loneliness. These results suggest that the quality of digital interactions may not fulfill the social needs that are met in face-to-face communication. “This research underscores the complexity of social media’s impact on mental health,” Roberts said. “While social media offers unprecedented access to online communities, it appears that extensive use – whether active or passive – does not alleviate feelings of loneliness and may, in fact, intensify them.” The study also found a two-way relationship between loneliness and social media use. "It appears that a continuous feedback loop exists between the two,” Roberts said. “Lonely people turn to social media to address their feelings, but it is possible that such social media use merely fans the flames of loneliness."​ The findings emphasize an urgent need for further research into the effects of digital interaction, underlining the essential role of in-person connections in supporting well-being. This study also adds a valuable perspective to the conversation on how digital habits influence mental health, offering insights to shape future mental health initiatives, policies and guidelines for healthier social media use. Are you covering social media and its impact on people?  Then let us help. These experts are available to speak with media, simply click or contact Shelby Cefaratti-Bertin, M.A, Assistant Director of Media and Public Relations now to arrange an interview today.

Spring break could compound West Texas measles outbreak

Most Texas schools go on spring break this week, which could be a major issue compounding the ongoing measles outbreak in West Texas, said Jennifer Horney, an epidemiologist at the University of Delaware. The outbreak, which has grown to more than 200 cases and claimed the life of a child last week, is likely to continue to grow as new cases are identified in both surrounding communities as well as other states, Horney said. Horney, founding director of UD's epidemiology program, can also comment on vaccination of measles, which is one of the most highly contagious infectious diseases. • Through maintenance of vaccination coverage of greater than 90%, the U.S. was able to gain eradication status in 2000. • Although there have been sporadic cases, and even outbreaks, since then, worsening vaccine hesitancy has led to vaccination rates in some communities of 80% or lower. • According to data, of 20 outbreaks involving three or more cases reported in the last five years, 40% were in 2024. With outbreaks currently in at least nine states in the U.S., 2025 looks to be a very bad year for measles infections. Visit Horney's profile below and click on "contact" to arrange an interview.

Lab grown meat could be on sale in UK within two years - but what is lab-grown meat?

Meat, dairy and sugar grown in a lab could be on sale in the UK for human consumption for the first time within two years, sooner than expected. The Food Standards Agency (FSA) is looking at how it can speed up the approval process for lab-grown foods. Such products are grown from cells in small chemical plants. UK firms have led the way in the field scientifically but feel they have been held back by the current regulations. Aston University has been working on cultivated meat - find out more about what lab-made meat is  made of and how it is created in the podcast Breaking Down Barriers on Spotify   https://open.spotify.com/episode/7bFy1gr2LJCwiRLPAT9Hml For further details contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk

The Battle Begins - How Long will Trump's Trade Wars Last Between China, Canada and Mexico?

It has begun.  March 04 signaled the first day of what could be a long and drawn out trade war between America and it's two closest neighbors and trading partners - Canada and Mexico. President Trump also doubled the tariff he slapped last month on Chinese products to 20%. Markets are reeling, politicians are scrambling and the world is watching to see how the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports will affect consumers and the economy. In Canada, the reaction was swift. Businesses pulled American bourbon, wine and other imported spirits from store shelves along. Canada also threatened to turn off imported power that keeps the lights on and factories running in states like Michigan, Minnesota and New York. As well, Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau announced  immediate retaliatory measures. Trudeau said Canada will not back down from a fight in the face of "completely bogus and completely unjustified" trade action that has the potential to ruin bilateral relations and prompt job losses, economic devastation and higher inflation on both sides of the border. Trudeau has already slapped tariffs on an initial tranche of $30 billion worth of American goods and promised $125 billion more will face levies in three weeks' time. He said more, non-tariff measures are coming if Trump doesn't immediately back down. Trudeau said Trump is doing something "very dumb" by attacking Canada like this, given there will be serious ramifications for American workers and consumers with higher prices on everything from food, car parts and fertilizers to pharmaceuticals and paper products.  March 04 - CBC News Meanwhile, there have been some indicators that President Trump may be willing to negotiate. President Donald Trump will “probably” announce tariff compromise deals with Canada and Mexico soon, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday. The potential agreements would likely involve scaling back at least part of Trump’s brand new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, he added. Lutnick’s comments came minutes after the U.S. stock market limped to a close for a second day of sharp declines, spurred at least in part by investors’ fears that Trump’s aggressive policies will ignite a crippling trade war. After his remarks, U.S. stock futures tied to all three major averages rose. The compromises with Canada and Mexico will likely be revealed as soon as Wednesday, Lutnick said on “Fox Business.” March 04- CNBC News There's a lot of speculation out there - and lingering questions: What key American industries will benefit, which ones will suffer? When and will consumers see price hikes at the stores? Will there be a lasting negative impact felt on the American economy? What does this mean for the USMCA that was currently in place? If you're a journalist covering tariffs and the trade war - then let us help. William J. Luther, Ph.D., is an associate professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University, director of the American Institute for Economic Research’s Sound Money Project, and an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives William is available to speak with media. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today

Empowering young minds: Digital platform providing educational resources for children impacted by Russo-Ukrainian War

Digital platforms have emerged as powerful tools for people impacted by the Russo-Ukrainian War. One professor at the University of Delaware has, for over two years, provided reading resources specifically for the children whose lives have been forever changed by this conflict.  Roberta Michnick Golinkoff, the Unidel H. Rodney Sharp Chair and Professor at UD's College of Education and Human Development, has developed a website with free interactive e-books, games and other resources to Ukrainian children. A nationally known expert in childhood literacy, Golinkoff worked together with developers to stock the site, Stories with Clever Hedgehog, with materials in both Ukrainian and English. The multilingual platforms allows displaced families all over the world to engage in shared reading with their children, facilitate early literacy development and promote well-being during a time of stress. In addition to enhancing learning experiences, digital platforms provide an essential sense of community and connectivity for students isolated by conflict. Golinkoff, who has appeared in numerous national outlets including NPR, ABC News and The Conversation, is available for interviews on the site as well as literacy in general. Just click her profile to get in touch.