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Indebted Chinese Real Estate Developer Could Become Systemic Risk
Recent speculation surrounding the property developer China Evergrande Group caused the S&P 500 to have its worst day since May. But what we should look out for is systemic risk, according to John Sedunov, PhD, associate professor of finance at Villanova University. Evergrande currently has the biggest debt out of all publicly traded real-estate management or development companies. “The big issue seems to be Evergrande’s ability to repay its debt. The bigger issue is a potential for systemic crises or contagion to unfold,” said Dr. Sedunov. Another possibility is that Beijing could allow Evergrande to default. “Evergrande is a large Chinese developer, and the Chinese government may allow it to fail. It owes a lot of money to financial institutions and other market participants,” says Dr. Sedunov. With these risks, assets were moved from stocks, oil and Bitcoin to much safer options. “What’s potentially at stake is a contagion event where institutions with large exposure to Evergrande experience distress or fail as a result of lost cash flows they are expecting from Evergrande. This scenario is exacerbated if the company is allowed to fail,” said Dr. Sedunov. Does this present any other future concerns? Per Dr. Sedunov, Evergrande’s collapse could also impact the housing market. “More at issue is also that the real estate sector in China looks to be quite overheated (and it may be here as well), and this could be a signal of a collapse in real estate values, which again can bleed back into the financial system,” he said.
Could There Be a Ninth Planet?
A new study re-examined work from 2016 and proposed additional evidence of a ninth planet. While this investigation has been met with much skepticism, Scott Engle, PhD, assistant professor of astrophysics and planetary sciences at Villanova University, contends Planet Nine's existence is a possibility. "Proposing that the Solar System contains a yet undiscovered planet is always going to be a remarkable claim, so it makes complete sense that there's been a lot of excitement from the public and also a divided response from the field," says Dr. Engle. "This recent study certainly makes a more convincing claim than in 2016. The authors seem to understand the weight behind such a claim, and they appear to have aimed this study to address some of the claim's criticisms. Naturally, though, its existence is just an interesting possibility." If Planet Nine is confirmed, what would this change in the field of astronomy? Alongside the excitement of a new planet's discovery, a swell of studies would emerge to continue to investigate the planet. "First, we'll want to pin down the planet's orbit, which will continually improve as we track the planet over time. Once we get a good idea of its orbit, there's also the possibility of going back through the image archives—maybe we'll get really lucky, and Planet Nine photobombed some image that Hubble was taking of an unrelated object." Planet Nine would be unique, particularly because of its position so far from the Sun. "Theoreticians will have a field day determining if the planet formed that far from the Sun or if it formed closer to the Sun and 'migrated out' to its current distance... and then [picking apart the] implications those results have for the current structure of the Solar System and our theories on how it formed. Astronomers will also want to know the composition of Planet Nine—whether it 'belongs' with the Solar System or is a captured rogue planet." Can we expect any extraterrestrial discoveries? Before we start to imagine life on Planet Nine, Dr. Engle noted it is probably not habitable: "Likely not in any human sense of the word. There is a wide range of properties allowed by the latest results, but as the authors state, a gas giant seems probable. Also, the planet orbits at such a distance that it receives 1/57,000th the amount of sunlight that we receive here on Earth, or less." But a discovery of a ninth planet could spark novel findings and "eureka" moments. "The detection would also serve as a great reminder that even 'right in our own backyard' there are still incredible discoveries to be made," said Dr. Engle.
Offshore A’s – UMW’s David Rettinger is the go-to expert for the Varsity Blues trial
The Varsity Blues case captured headlines over two years ago, when news broke that wealthy parents paid upwards of $25 million in bribes to help their children cheat on test scores and secure college admission. As the trial gets underway this week, Professor of Psychological Science David Rettinger, who oversees Academic Integrity Programs at the University of Mary Washington, can provide unique insight into the scandal and the rise of contract cheating at colleges and universities across the country. He was recently interviewed by CBS News about the billion dollar cheating industry that has emerged in Kenya, where Americans are paying African students to do homework, write essays and in some cases, even complete degrees for them. "I think the state of cheating at colleges and universities is serious and getting more serious," David Rettinger ... told CBS News. He said that cheating is problematic because it means people can graduate from degree programs without actually being qualified in their fields. "We trust our doctors have been to medical school," Rettinger said. "Cheating leads us to overall social corruption because it leads us to having a cadre of professionals who can't actually do the work that they claim they can do." You can see the full interview and story here: Dr. David Rettinger is available to speak with media regarding this issue of cheating and academic integrity. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
Experts in the Media – UMW entomologist is the go-to expert on the Spotted Lanternfly
Move over cicadas. Spotted Lanternflies are now in the spotlight, hitchhiking across America. The invasive species, which came via cargo from Asia, are now wreaking havoc through the East Coast. Just this week, University of Mary Washington Assistant Professor of Biology Josephine Antwi, whose research focuses on the effects that pests have on crops of economic importance, was interviewed by The Washington Post about the potential devastation these bugs can have on trees and agricultural crops like apples, grapes, stone fruits and hop plants. The New York Times and USA Today have also published stories about the insects. Despite having wings, the adults don’t fly far. The bugs are often spread by vehicles. Residents in quarantined counties are urged to inspect vehicles and goods for transport to ensure that the insects and their egg masses are not hitching a ride. “If females lay eggs on a substrate that eventually moves (e.g., automobiles or goods), then they quickly spread that way,” Josephine Antwi ... wrote in an email. If you're writing about the Spotted Lanternfly, Dr. Antwi is available to speak with media; simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.
Anti-mask ordinances amount to disability discrimination
University of Rochester health policy expert Mical Raz says anti-mask ordinances amount to disability discrimination for individuals with compromised immune systems—that includes people who have cancer and autoimmune disease, as well as those who have received organ transplants. As Dr. Raz explained in a recent Washington Post essay, immunocompromised individuals—even those who are vaccinated—may now find themselves inadequately protected in workplaces where mask requirements are legally banned and there are no vaccine requirements. Dr. Raz also co-authored a piece in the JAMA Health Forum discussing the implications of some states banning attempts to mandate masking. As she points out, vaccines have been less effective in individuals with different categories of immunosuppression. Dr. Raz concludes that allowing mask requirements is an important form of disability accommodation.
Baylor Expert: 9/11 Reshaped Every Aspect of American Life – Not Necessarily for the Better
English professor, culture expert says terror attacks damaged America, but it’s not too late to recover sense of purpose and generosity The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon continue – 20 years later – to have profound effects on everything from America’s political, religious and cultural polarization to American entertainment choices, said Baylor University faith and culture expert Greg Garrett, Ph.D., professor of English. “It shouldn’t surprise anyone that an event that shook our sense of security and our identity would be reflected in every aspect of American life,” Garrett said. “But what does surprise and alarm me is the degree to which 9/11 continues to shape our attitudes about race, religion, immigration and the Other, whether that Other is in Afghanistan or just across town. The United States initiated a perpetual war against terror in response to the 9/11 attacks, and the fear that took root in the American psyche has proven difficult to shake.” Garrett, author of more than two dozen books, is internationally recognized as an expert on faith, culture, race and story, and he argues that the reaction to 9/11 can be measured just as much through literature and culture as through accounts of executive orders and covert military operations. Country music, procedurals and reality TV after 9/11 “Initially, Americans supported the War on Terror across political, religious and cultural lines,” Garrett said. “Country musicians like Toby Keith leaned into militant songs about American greatness and righteous revenge. The top-selling act the Chicks (then the Dixie Chicks) was drummed out of country music for their public stand against going to war. The TV show 24 reflected the growing darkness of America’s extra-legal approach to that war—the willingness to use torture, rendition and the opening of a dark site in Guantanamo Bay to house suspected terrorists—and it actually shaped opinion and policy as it grew in popularity and influence.” Two other types of television shows became extremely popular as a result of 9/11, Garrett said. Procedurals (shows such as CSI, Law and Order and House, M.D.) gained a new popularity because they offered viewers something the ongoing War on Terror never could or will: closure. “A serious problem was introduced in every episode, grappled with and solved by the end of an hour,” he said. Another type of show that leapt in popularity in the months and years following the attacks – reality shows – offered “train-wreck escapism,” Garrett said. “The contestants on Survivor and The Bachelor, and the wayward souls on Jersey Shore and Keeping Up with the Kardashians, presented exaggerated versions of our present moment that allowed viewers to forget about the dark actuality of the times,” he said. Springsteen, Harry Potter and critiquing ‘moral failures of the War on Terror’ Not all popular culture offered reinforcement or escapism, Garrett said, adding that some of the most powerful pop culture from 2001 onward critiqued the “moral failures of the War on Terror and critiqued the American people for so readily accepting them.” “Punk rock, always a prime medium for protest, was one of the earliest forms of dissent,” Garrett said. Green Day’s 2004 album American Idiot reached the top of the charts in the United States and 18 other countries, ultimately selling 16 million albums. But mainstream acts like Bruce Springsteen also asked complicating questions about the attacks and their aftermath. “After primarily offering empathy and comfort in The Rising (2002), Springsteen realized that America had betrayed many of its most important ideals, as revealed by songs like ‘Your Own Worst Enemy’ on the No. 1 2007 album Magic,” Garrett said. “Later novels in J. K. Rowling’s Harry Potter series, the most popular fictional narrative of all time, introduce questions of torture and terror, and powerful TV dramas like Battlestar Galactica and the British import Doctor Who also criticize the choices made by the American government and its allies.” Zombies and the Apocalypse Perhaps the most significant byproduct of 9/11 in our culture is the resurgence in apocalyptic stories such as 28 Days Later, Sean of the Dead, The Walking Dead, Game of Thrones, World War Z and The Road, Garrett said. Stories about the Zombie Apocalypse – whether in games, books, comics, TV or movies – asked serious questions about what it means to be human, and about what moral compromises a person might be willing to take to stay alive, Garrett explained. They also reflected the new 24/7 sense of encroaching menace that “seeped into our culture and lit up our phones at all hours of the day and night.” “You could fight all day every day against this menace, these creatures who look like humans but seek your destruction. And then the next morning, you still have to rise and confront it again,” Garrett said. ‘Not too late’ “People 20 years ago said that 9/11 changed everything, and so it did.” Garrett said. “But 20 years later it is not too late to recognize that the fears those attacks brought to the surface don’t have to be the way we continue to live. In my faith tradition, Jesus constantly admonishes his followers not to be so afraid. We make bad and selfish decisions out of fear. We abridge hospitality, compassion and liberty when we believe we are endangered. That’s not the America I grew up in, and it’s not the America in which I hope to die. That America, the light of the world, the city on a hill, Lady Liberty lifting her torch to welcome all, is the America that our founders dreamed, and that we can dream once again.” ABOUT GREG GARRETT, PH.D Greg Garrett, Ph.D., is a professor of English at Baylor University and Theologian-in-Residence at the American Cathedral of the Holy Trinity in Paris. An award-winning professor, Garrett has written about 9/11 and its aftermath in a number of books, including One Fine Potion: The Literary Magic of Harry Potter (Baylor University Press), Living with the Living Dead: The Wisdom of the Zombie Apocalypse, and A Long, Long Way: Hollywood’s Unfinished Journey from Racism to Reconciliation (both Oxford University Press). ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 19,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and eight academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit baylor.edu/artsandsciences.
Bye-bye Bonnie and Clyde – Brazil is taking bank robbing to a whole new level
The media coverage reads like a scene out of a Michael Bay movie. Bank robbers using drones, strategically planting bombs across the city and taking hostages and placing them atop getaway cars. It’s surreal … but in Brazil, over the top bank heists are becoming the new normal. And the media are looking for experts to try and explain just what it is going on. That’s why the Daily Beast recently contacted Georgia Southern’s expert on Latin America, José de Arimatéia da Cruz, Ph.D. In the predawn darkness last Monday, a group of about 20 heavily armed commandos seized control of the downtown financial block in Araçatuba, a mid-sized Brazilian city in the eastern state of São Paulo. They then proceeded to rob three banks, while the surveillance drones they had deployed kept watch over head. When the heist was complete they accosted several bystanders, shot a man who had been filming them on his phone, and then bound the hostages they’d taken to the tops of their getaway vehicles so as to dissuade police from interfering with their escape…. Since 2015 these kinds of attacks have become so common that Brazilians even have a name for them: Novo Cangaço, which roughly translates into English as “New Struggle.” The name refers to a “social banditry” movement that flourished in Brazil’s hardscrabble northeast in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The original Cangaço sought to battle back against widespread poverty and inequality. It involved Robin-Hood like figures who plagued wealthy landowners, donated to the poor, and pushed the government to jumpstart economic reforms. “The New Cangaço’s modus operandi is similar” to that of their predecessors, José de Arimatéia da Cruz , Ph.D., told The Daily Beast. The tactics might be alike, but the strategy between the old and new incarnations are quite different, according to da Cruz, who is originally from Brazil but now teaches international relations at Georgia Southern University. “The difference today is that the traditional cangaceiros [peasant bandits] were fighting against politicians. The Novo Cangaço today are attacking banks and are most basically interested in money for different purposes.” This is a sensational chain of events – and if you are a reporter covering these escalating crimes in Brazil – then let us help with your stories. José de Arimatéia da Cruz is available to speak with media regarding this topic — simply reach out to Georgia Southern Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview today.
This Saturday marks the 20th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attack. It was a day that forever changed how the United States viewed terrorism and its approach to foreign policy. The Middle East, especially Iraq and Afghanistan, has seen upheaval in the wake of 9/11. Over the last two decades, America’s approach to how it deals with enemies and how it collaborates with allies has also been drastically altered. University of Mary Washington Political Science and International Affairs Professor Jason Davidson is an expert in American foreign and security policy, and international security. He is also the author of the commissioned study, "The Costs of War to United States Allies Since 9/11," which focuses extensively on the human and monetary sacrifices made by America's allies in these conflicts. Davidson, and the document, made waves this spring, landing in the likes of Forbes, The Guardian and The Daily Mail. If you’re looking to arrange an interview with Dr. Davidson, simply click on his icon.
Aston Business School to host hybrid conference on tax
• The Tax Research Network (TRN) annual conference will run from 8 – 10 September both in person and online • The focus of the three-day event will be on tax research and education • Over 80 speakers and delegates from across Europe, USA, India, New Zealand and South Africa will take part in the event with around half livestreamed on YouTube Aston Business School (ABS) will host the prestigious Tax Research Network (TRN) annual conference this week. The TRN is one of the main global groupings of those interested in tax research and education with around 500 members worldwide. The event, which is sponsored by the Chartered Institute of Tax (CIOT) and the ICAEW Charitable Funds, will run from 8 – 10 September both in person and online. Two days (8-9 September) will focus on tax research and the third day (10 September) on tax education which will be a series of workshops looking at different current issues in teaching tax. Over 100 speakers and delegates from across Europe, USA, India, New Zealand and South Africa will take part in face-to-face keynote speeches and panel discussions in Aston Business School with around half live-streamed on YouTube. Professor Andy Lymer, who is head of accounting at Aston University and chairing the event, said: “I am delighted that Aston Business School is hosting the Tax Research Network’s (TRN) annual conference. “This is their annual conference which is usually a face-to-face event but was virtual last year and this year hybrid. “Our hybrid approach is a first for ABS with a mix of face-to-face lectures and live-streamed parts interlaced with pre-recorded paper and keynote and panellist contributions. “Aston University will be represented by various academics including Dr Carlene Wynter who is chairing a session on tax and housing linked to the work she did last year with others at the university on social housing and tax as well as presenting a paper.” The schedule includes Dyfed Alsop, CEO of the Welsh Revenue Authority and Stephanie Gray, head of income tax and reserved tax unit in the Scottish Government and various workshops from speakers including Phyllis Alexander (Bournemouth University) on developing international tax teaching in light of current trends in this area towards developing fairer tax systems and Nicky Thomas (University of Exeter) and Terry Filer (Swansea University) on innovations in teaching tax including making use of VR and Lego. You can book your place(s) here. The full schedule for the conference is available here. Full details of the parallel sessions are available here.
GP guidance: Diet and weight loss to achieve type 2 diabetes remission
• Research finds diet and weight loss key to remission of type 2 diabetes • Experts conducted a critical narrative review of over 90 research papers including international clinical trials • Researchers advise on reducing blood sugar levels to manage negative effects of type 2 diabetes and reduce risk of complications Achieving ‘remission’ for people with type 2 diabetes through dietary approaches and weight loss should be the primary treatment goal of GPs and healthcare practitioners, concludes a large-scale review of clinical evidence led by researchers at UCL and Aston University. Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is a serious condition caused when the body resists the insulin produced in the pancreas, and not enough insulin is made. This leads to high levels of sugar (glucose) in the blood and is associated with multiple health problems including increased risk of heart disease, blindness, and amputation. In the UK T2DM affects around 3.9 million people and 179 million globally. Care and treatment of T2DM costs the NHS around £10 billion a year. Corresponding author, Dr Duane Mellor, Aston University said: “Accounting for all the evidence, our review suggests remission should be discussed as a primary treatment goal with people living with type 2 diabetes. There are multiple dietary approaches that have been shown to bring about T2DM remission though at present meal replacements offer the best quality evidence. Low carbohydrate diets have been shown to be highly effective and should also be considered as a dietary approach for remission.” Lead author, Dr Adrian Brown, UCL Division of Medicine said: “Traditionally T2DM has focussed on managing a person’s blood glucose with medication, however the approach doesn’t address the underlying causes of T2DM. There is now a growing body of research that shows losing significant weight, 10-15kg, either through weight loss surgery or dietary approaches, can bring about type 2 diabetes remission (non-diabetic blood sugar levels).” For the study, published in the Journal of Human Nutrition & Dietetics, specialist dietitians and obesity experts conducted a critical narrative review of over 90 research papers covering international clinical trials and clinical practice data of dietary methods used to treat T2DM. The study found that meal-replacement diets helped around one in three (36%) people successfully achieve remission, while low carbohydrate diets were able to help around one in five (17.6 %) people achieve and maintain remission for at least two years. People who lost the most weight and kept the weight off using both of these dietary approaches were able to stay in remission. Calorie restricted and Mediterranean diets were also able to help people achieve remission – but at much lower rates. Only around 5% of people on calorie restricted diets stayed in remission after one year, while only 15% of people on a Mediterranean diet stayed in remission after a year. In reaching their findings, the research team had to account for the fact there is no single definition of remission; it is typically defined as a return to non-diabetic blood sugar levels (glycated haemoglobin less than 48mmol/mol), without the use of diabetes drugs. Other definitions however say weight (especially fat around the midsection) must be lost to achieve remission, and others that medications can continue to be used. In addition, some reports suggest low-carbohydrate diets can normalise blood sugar levels even without weight loss. This happens as when carbohydrates are eaten, they are broken down into sugars which cause our blood sugar levels to rise. A low-carbohydrate diet means less blood sugar appears in the bloodstream, leading to improved blood sugar control. However, if weight loss is not achieved but individuals are able to achieve non-diabetic blood glucose, the authors are suggesting this should instead be called mitigation, as the underlying mechanisms of T2DM are not being addressed. Dr Brown said: “The evidence is clear that the main driver of remission remains the degree of weight loss a person achieved. Therefore, for those not achieving weight loss but achieving a non-diabetic blood glucose we are suggesting this isn’t remission per se, but rather “mitigation” of their diabetes.” The research concludes that while weight loss appears to be the best predictor of remission success, it assumes fat loss from the pancreas and liver. They note, that it will be important for future studies to compare how these diets work for different ethnic groups, as T2DM can happen at lower body weights in different ethnic groups, who may have less weight to lose. Dr Mellor added: “Not everyone will be able to achieve remission, but people who are younger (less than 50), male, have had type 2 diabetes for less than six years and lose more weight are more likely to be successful. “This could be because these people are able to address the causes of their diabetes, therefore recovering more of the pancreas’s ability to make insulin and the liver’s ability to use it. But this doesn’t mean others won’t be successful if they improve their diet and lifestyle and lose weight. “Whether or not a person achieves remission, reducing blood sugar levels is important in managing the negative effects of type 2 diabetes and reducing risk of complications. But when it comes to choosing a diet, the most important thing is to pick one that suits you – one that you’re likely to stick to long term.” The initial meeting which led to the writing of this paper was supported by the British Dietetic Association and Diabetes UK.
