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As the world still isolates, social distances and stays at home – the concerns about the economy are always top of mind. Jobs, investments and paying bills are a daily topic at home and in the media. The initial spin that there’s nothing to worry about as whatever was lost is bound to bounce back once we’re back to normal is starting to fade. No one knows when that bounce back will start and the idea of back to normal, what it will look like and when is at best a guess for anyone. Public health experts are beginning to make predictions about when coronavirus infection rates will peak. Economists are calculating when the cost of continuing to shutter restaurants, shopping malls and other businesses — a move that has already pushed some 10 million Americans into unemployment, with millions more on the way — will outweigh the savings from further efforts to slow the virus once the infection curve has flattened out. Government officials are setting competing targets. President Trump has pushed his expected date of reopening the economy to the end of April. “We have to get back to work,” he said in a briefing on Saturday. “We have to open our country again. We don’t want to be doing this for months and months and months. We’re going to open our country again. This country wasn’t meant for this.” Some governors have set much more conservative targets, like Ralph Northam of Virginia, who canceled the remainder of the school year and imposed a shelter-at-home order through June 10. Other states, like Florida, only recently agreed to shut activity down but have set more aggressive targets — April 30, in the case of the Sunshine State — to restart it. April 06 – New York Times So when will it be back, what’s lost forever and how long to recover are the million-dollar questions. And if you are a journalist covering America’s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic – then let us help with your stories. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Op Ed: In coronavirus crisis, Don't prioritize economics over public health
The following is an excerpt from Op Ed that ran in the Detroit Free Press late last week. Th full piece is attached below for your reading pleasure. President Donald Trump said this week that he hopes to see economic activity ramped up and social distancing practices and other public health measures reduced by Easter, which is April 12. This is a recipe for disaster and it again vividly illustrates his dismissal of medical and scientific expertise for his own political goals. The rhetoric he uses suggests that the financial pain the nation will experience over the next year or longer is not worth the lives that will be lost as a result of dialing back public health restrictions. I am an ethicist. To me, Trump is forcing Sophie’s Choice decisions by people who have taken an oath to “first do no harm.” Trump and his advisers ignore the ethical pain that health professionals will have to endure who must decide who lives and who dies because we have too few ventilators or too few ICU beds to treat all the patients who need those beds for survival. Those harsh choices are very real right now. They would become even more tragic if public health measures now in place were loosened in order to improve economic activity. March 27 - Detroit Free Press There are many angles to explore and cover as the COVID-19 pandemic impacts just about every segment of American life. If you're a journalist covering the ethics involved and the leadership decisions taking place at each level of government, then let our experts help. Leonard M. Fleck is the Director of the Center for Ethics at Michigan State University. He is an expert in the areas of health care justice and served as a member of the Clinton Administration’s Health Care Reform Task Force in 1993 and as a state ethicist for Michigan regarding access to health care. Dr. Fleck is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Expert available to discuss how economic impact of COVID-19 may vary across the country
Retailers such as Macy’s, Nordstrom and Urban Outfitters have announced they will temporarily shutter stores and car maker Honda will close six U.S. plants for a week. Earlier, in-person service at restaurants and bars was ceased. R. Andrew Butters, assistant professor of business economics and public policy at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, cautions against making general assessments about COVID-19’s economic impact across the country. “Assessing the economic impacts of this pandemic -- and the range of policy responses enacted -- or being considered; however, might be harder to predict and have the potential to be even more uneven. For instance, take the most recent response of closing in-person dining at bars, and restaurants after the first confirmed death in Indiana was announced on Monday. Citing the of example restaurants, “According to the most recent economic census data, on the dimension of annual sales per capita coming from restaurants and other eating establishments, the state of Indiana is less dependent on this sector of the economy than other neighboring states Illinois and Ohio, that have enacted similar responses. On this particular dimension, one could view the economy of Indiana being somewhat insulated relative to its Midwest neighbors. “In sectors like airline travel and hotels, net bookings are down across the board -- and at unprecedented levels. How long travelers stay at home will have a lasting impact on the distribution of foregone revenues experienced at restaurants, bars, and hotels across the country. “An empty seat, or hotel room, contributes zero to GDP. This is especially true in a country like the US, as the demands for air travel and lodging vary across different parts of the country. Some areas of the country with peaks in demand over the spring months (e.g. Arizona and Florida) are likely to be especially vulnerable. Other areas with peaks in travel and recreational demand later in the year, (e.g., some areas of New York and Minnesota) might be less impacted, if the health concerns of travel are mitigated over the next couple of months. “There are many factors one can point to as contributors to a sharp rebound in economic activity, after the impact of the health concerns of the virus are subdued. These factors include the current personal savings and unemployment rates. As more varied -- and reflective -- economic and financial data comes in from areas affected by the global supply chain/consumption disruptions created by this virus (see, e.g., Brave-Butters-Kelley Business Cycle Indices and National Financial Conditions Index), it will be imperative that public policy makers work in concert with the most recent assessments of the depth and duration of this crisis to ensure the stabilization of local and national economies.” Butters can be reached at 812-855-5768 (o), 630-699-4868 and rabutter@indiana.edu.
These are worrisome times, and as the public takes personal precautions – there are some aspects that may seem out of a person’s personal control. Shopping is one of these situations. Despite calls for social distancing and staying inside, the reality is Americans will need to venture out to shop, bank and carry on with some aspects of life during this outbreak. Dr. Felicia Wu is the John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor, Department of Food Science and Human Nutrition, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics at Michigan State University. In addition, Dr. Wu currently serves as an expert adviser to the Joint Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives of the United Nation. She is an expert on food safety and has the answers to some popular questions being put forward by Americans. Question: Grocery stores are busy, and there are often long lines to get in and at check out. What are the risks? Dr Wu: No matter what, there are risks associated with going out into locations where many people may gather. The risks are that one could become infected with SARS-Cov-2 by standing near an infected person who is coughing or sneezing (this is the most likely route of transmission), or that one would touch a surface upon which an infected person coughed or sneezed recently. Question: How can seniors stay safe in this situation and can the risk be substantially reduced for the elderly and other vulnerable people? Dr Wu: The safest option, if it is possible, is to have more vulnerable individuals (elderly, immunocompromised, chronic heart and lung diseases) ask someone else who is not part of a vulnerable group to do the shopping for them. If that is not possible, then I do think it is a good idea for grocery stores to have dedicated hours that are for more vulnerable populations to shop – ones in which there will be fewer people, and where cleaning can take place beforehand. They need to consider the following: what hours those would be, and are those hours feasible for the elderly and others? Will they give instructions about how far people should stay away from each other? Will they wipe down counters and other surfaces beforehand? All these practices would help reduce risk. Question: And once home shopping, what to do then? Dr Wu: At home, the elderly and other vulnerable populations should be careful to thoroughly wash any produce meant to be eaten without cooking. Cooking food thoroughly is an excellent way to reduce risk of foodborne pathogens. And for those working in retail and in grocery stores? Question: Are there any sanitary recommendations for those who are cleaning these shopping areas? Dr Wu: The CDC has helpful resources about effective cleaning agents for coronavirus that includes cleaning, disinfecting, ensuring surfaces are safe, what materials to use and proper prevention at work and at home. Lastly, to the workers who are cleaning these shopping areas: We are grateful, and along with the recommended cleaning instructions above, these workers should wash their hands carefully beforehand and afterwards to ensure their own safety and the safety of others. Dr. Felicia Wu is an Expert in food safety, social network analysis, global health, risk assessment, economic models, environmental health risks, public health and has been sought out by national media for her expertise on the topic. She is available to speak with media regarding food safety – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.
Coronavirus and food safety: DO NOT SHARE FOOD WITH OTHERS!
"It is crucial, even within families, to make sure not to share food that someone else directly bit into or drank," says Dr. Felicia Wu, the John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor, Department of Food Science and Human Nutrition, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics at Michigan State University. Dr. Wu also currently serves as an expert adviser to the Joint Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives of the United Nations. “Even though COVID-19 (specifically SARS-CoV-2) is not typically airborne (therefore, you don’t have to worry about contracting it from breathing air unless an infected person coughed near you), it is droplet-borne. That is why someone infected with this virus and coughing, sneezing, or spitting close to you would increase your risk of becoming infected. For that same reason, although it sounds a bit disgusting to discuss, people transmit their saliva onto the food they eat and the beverages they drink, which may subsequently contain SARS-CoV-2 if they are infected. Therefore, no sharing even with your own family.” Dr. Wu was also able to provide some very important expert insight on what may be common questions that are being asked in the community. TAKEOUT: Is takeout safe during the coronavirus outbreak? What about raw foods and salads? And, what are some steps you can take to make takeout safer? Dr. Wu: Yes, it is generally safe to order and eat takeout food, if you can trust the overall safety practices of the restaurant. Cooked food is usually free of pathogenic microbes; the only danger is if food workers somehow coughed or otherwise transmitted infected droplets to the food after it was cooked and before it was packaged for takeout. There is some risk to raw, uncooked foods if anywhere along the handling chain, an individual who was infected with SARS-CoV-2 coughed or otherwise transmitted droplets onto the food. If there are concerns regarding food delivery, customers can inform the restaurant that they would prefer to have the delivery person put the food on their porch and ring the doorbell. GROCERY STORES: There are lots of people in stores and hands touching food. How can you keep produce safe? Does washing help? And how long can the virus last on a package or on a piece of produce? Dr. Wu: This is definitely a problem and has always been a problem (we’re only becoming more concerned about it now). It is entirely plausible for a sick person to rub their nose or their mouth, or cough or sneeze into their hands, and then use those same hands to touch fruit, vegetables, etc. in the grocery stores. I would recommend washing all produce intended for raw (uncooked) consumption at home (and wash your hands, too!) with soap and water. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty with how long coronavirus can survive on different surfaces, so absolutely, it is a good idea to disinfect jars or cans of food before putting them away at home. Again, wash your hands afterwards. Dr. Felicia Wu is an Expert in food safety, social network analysis, global health, risk assessment, economic models, environmental health risks, public health and has been sought out by national media for her expertise on the topic. She is available to speak with media regarding food safety – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.
COVID-19, cancellations and closings -- What do business owners need to know?
It might feel like 2008, but it’s not. “Expect coronavirus fears and behavioral changes from consumers to cause a sudden recession, but it won’t last long,” says Phil Powell, Indiana University Kelley School of Business associate dean of academic programs in Indianapolis and clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy. “I expect the economy will bounce back fairly quickly, and we could see some normalcy in the economy and the markets by May or June." Powell can speak to what business owners and consumers should know and do – and the economic impact of cancellations. If you would like to speak with Powell, please contact Teresa Mackin at tmackin@iu.edu or 317-274-2233.
The Markets never lie – and it looks like Wall Street is smiling about Joe Biden
The Markets never lie – and it looks like Wall Street is smiling about Joe Biden It wasn’t just the Joe Biden campaign celebrating after a monumental Super Tuesday – so too was Wall Street. Dow (INDU) futures were last up more than 580 points, or 2.3%, after the former US vice president was projected to win many as nine states including Texas, Virginia and Minnesota. Sanders captured Utah, Vermont and Colorado, and was leading in California. Futures for the S&P 500 (INX) were up 1.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) increased 1.9%. Wall Street has been unnerved by prospect that Sanders, who wants to ban fracking, break up big banks and institute a wealth tax, could win the Democratic nomination and eventually the presidency. March 04 – CNN Business But what impact and influence will investors and indexes have on the actual outcome of the primaries? Will voters be convinced or swayed by the markets or is this result simply a by-product of an election result? It is interesting for sure, and if you are a reporter covering this topic – then let our experts help with your coverage. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
FAU Experts Available to Speak on Coronavirus and its Impact Worldwide
Coronavirus has now earned global attention and Florida Atlantic University experts are available to speak with media about the impact of coronavirus on areas related to this worldwide epidemic, including hospitality, tourism, employment sick leave, and politics. If you are a journalist covering the progress of this virus and how it is impacting various sectors and segments of society – then let us help with your stories, questions and ongoing coverage. LeaAnne DeRigne, Ph.D., MSW, associate professor in FAU’s Phyllis and Harvey Sandler School of Social Work LeaAnne DeRigne is an expert on paid sick leave and its impact on the health and financial security of individuals, families and public health in general. Her recent research on the importance of paid sick leave benefits has received wide press coverage,and has been cited around the country by policy makers, lobbyists, and advocates pushing cities and states to mandate sick leave coverage. Key findings from the study, which are representative of the nation, showed that regardless of income, age, race, occupation, full-time or part-time work status, health status or health insurance coverage, workers without paid sick leave were three times more likely to delay medical care than were workers with paid sick leave. She also conducts research on other workplace benefits such as flexible work, vacation time and pensions. Peter Ricci, clinical associate professor and director of the Department of Marketing and Hospitality Management in FAU’s College of Business Peter Ricci is a hospitality industry veteran with more than 20 years of managerial experience in segments including food service, lodging, incentive travel, and destination marketing. While filling the role of hotel general manager for almost a decade, Ricci served as a part-time educator before entering academia full time as both a clinical associate professor and administrator. Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor and chair of FAU’s Department of Political Science in the Dorothy F. Schmidt College of Arts and Letters Kevin Wagner’s research and teaching interests include presidential and judicial politics, political behavior and legislative behavior. He is also a research fellow of the FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative (BEPI). Wagner has lectured extensively on American politics and has served as an expert in many leading newspapers including the New York Times, Boston Globe, New York Newsday, the Dallas Morning News, and the Miami Herald. He has been featured as the political analyst for CBS 12 in West Palm Beach and on national television including NBC’s “Today.” All of the experts listed above are ready and available to speak with media. To arrange an interview simply click on an expert’s profile or email Lisa Metcalf at lmetcalf@fau.edu.
Economic Impact of Macy's Closures, Sephora Openings
On February 4, Macy's announced that it will lay off 2,000 employees at corporate-level positions and close 125 stores over the next three years. They will also look to open smaller store concepts in shopping center locations, which have become more popular destinations for consumers than shopping malls. On the same day, Sephora announced it was going to open 100 stores in 2020. Villanova's David Fiorenza, an assistant professor of economics, has provided comments on both retailers' moves: "Macy's closing about 125 stores with a couple thousand jobs lost is basic economics. Supply and demand has been changing for many years, as people are shopping online, visiting boutique stores, travelling to smaller stores in strip malls, and visiting the urban-style malls that are popping up in suburban towns. These town centers, like King of Prussia Town Center, offer everything a mall or city shopping district does—but with smaller stores such as Sephora or Ulta." "Specialty stores like Sephora and Ulta will continue to see good growth in 2020 and beyond, as this is one area of retail that cannot be replaced with online shopping. The servicing of makeup, cosmetics, hair salons and fragrances needs to be experienced in a store with a knowledgeable sales representative." "The cosmetics counters in the large stores that are anchors in malls, such as Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus and Bloomingdale's, continue to show strong sales. However, in other departments within these stores, the sales are flat or declining." "Most of the smaller strip malls and suburban town centers do not have the competition you see at the larger malls." "Since the economy has been thriving for some time now, people have more discretionary income to spend. This is another bonus for Sephora and even Ulta to expand." "Macy's is a great organization but some of the stores look old and tired, similar to what happened with Toys 'R' Us' shops. I can see Macy's opening smaller boutiques, like what Best Buy has done, or discount stores, like Nordstrom Rack." "Landlords in these small strip centers and urban centers look for a certain type of business, and the large format of Macy's does not work at this point."
The election is on. In fact, it’s as if the campaign of the 2016 election has never come to a finish. U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy of constant rallies, speeches and campaign stops has essentially meant the Republican incumbent has been on the stump for the better part of almost five years now. On the other side, at one time last year, there were more than two dozen contenders vying for the right to represent the Democrats. That field has been whittled down to about half of that, and it is expected to continue shrinking now that primaries are in play and the financial costs of keeping up will become a reality. So, if there were to be an actual starting point for the November election – this week could be it. On Monday, the Iowa Caucus kicks off what could be months of rigorous and aggressive campaigning for Democrats. The winner Monday will have a huge boost, but after that it’ll be all eyes on New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and then Super Tuesday. Also, this week, the President will deliver the State of the Union. The timing of this speech could be the change of channel the President needs as the clouds of impeachment linger. As well, the speech and the huge audience it gathers could set the tone of what's to come on the campaign trail. For political junkies and journalists – it is going to be a busy nine months. And if you are a reporter covering the primaries, politics and the presidential election – then let our experts help. The team from FAU can help with a variety of topics that will inevitably be part of or influence the policies and platforms of each party and candidate. Kevin Wagner's research and teaching interests include presidential and judicial politics, political behavior and legislative behavior. He is also a research fellow of the FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative (BEPI). Robert Rabil is an expert in political Islam, terrorism, U.S. foreign policy, and U.S.-Arab relations. Kelly Shannon specializes in the history of U.S. foreign relations, with particular attention to the Middle East and the 20th century. Colin Polsky is trained as a geographer, specializing in the human dimensions of global environmental change. He also oversees FAU's quarterly environmental poll. All of these experts from Florida Atlantic University are available to help with any of your questions or coverage – simply click on an expert’s icon to arrange an interview today.
