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A Lego-Like Approach to Improve Nature’s Own Ability to Kill Dangerous Bacteria
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers antibiotic resistance one of the most urgent public health threats, one that affects communities worldwide. The ramifications of bacteria’s ability to become resistant to antibiotics can be seen in hospitals, public places, our food supply, and our water. In their search for solutions, researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have been looking to nature. In a paper recently published in Biomacromolecules, the team demonstrated how it could improve upon the ability of nature’s exquisitely selective collection of antimicrobial enzymes to attack bacteria in a way that’s much less likely to cause bacterial resistance. “The idea is that we could take nature’s approach and just make it better,” said Jonathan Dordick, a chaired professor of chemical and biological engineering and a member of the Center for Biotechnology and Interdisciplinary Studies (CBIS). In order for bacteria to grow and live, they naturally produce autolysin enzymes that can break down their own cell walls, allowing those cells to divide and multiply. In attacking one another, bacteria take advantage of a similar process, using an antibacterial protein known as a bacteriocin to kill a bacterium. Bacteria can also be attacked by bacteriophages, which are viruses that infect bacteria. They produce phage endolysin enzymes, which attack the bacterial cell from the inside. All three types of enzymes are broadly known as cell lytic enzymes, as they catalyze the breakdown of the bacterial cell wall. “It’s very difficult for bacteria to become resistant to the action of these enzymes,” Dordick said. “For example, if they became resistant to an autolysin, they wouldn’t divide.” Like building blocks, most cell lytic enzymes are modular. They’re made up of one binding domain which attaches to the cell wall, and a catalytic domain that breaks holes in the cell wall — effectively destroying the targeted bacteria. “The idea was: Could we use a Lego-like approach here? Could we take a binding domain from one enzyme and can we mix it with a binding domain or catalytic domain of another one?” Dordick said. The issue of antibiotic resistant bacteria and disease is a serious one and of great concern to the medical community. If you’re a journalist covering this topic or are looking to know more about the ongoing research into this field – let our experts help. Jonathan S. Dordick is the Howard P. Isermann Professor of Chemical and Biological Engineering at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute where he is also the Senior Advisor to the President for Strategic Initiatives. Dr. Dordick is available to speak with media regarding this topic - simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Baylor Study: What Does It Take to Be an ‘Ideal Daughter?’
Researchers say new study gives voice to daughters and value to their role in the family WACO, Texas (Nov. 11, 2019) – The roles of daughters in the family structure and in society are difficult to define and they’re rarely understood – even by daughters themselves – said Allison Alford, Ph.D., clinical assistant professor of business communication in Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business. Alford, who served as an editor on the book “Constructing Motherhood and Daughterhood Across the Lifespan,” is the lead author on a new study, “Role Expectations and Role Evaluations in Daughtering: Constructing the Good Daughter,” published in the latest edition of the Journal of Family Communication. “Our research has found that ‘daughtering’ is invisible work that is not often credited, and it’s as unique as the individual women who are doing the work,” Alford said. “This study and subsequent conversations hopefully will bring to light the idea of daughtering. And as more people hear about it and learn about it, then we’ll start to give credit to it and notice it in our own lives.” The study centers on mother-daughter relationships, specifically, and looks at how daughters perceive and define their roles in that relationship. Researchers interviewed 33 women, ages 25-45, who have living mothers under the age of 70. Those age ranges were chosen in order to capture a time period for mothers and daughters with the greatest likelihood that neither individual was the caregiver of the other and both were in relatively good health, the researchers wrote. Expectations of the “Ideal Daughter” Alford said analysis of the interviews with the daughters revealed four themes or role expectations for an “ideal daughter” in relation to her mother: Showing respect Providing protection Eliciting mothering Making time for connection Each of those efforts requires work, and that work often goes unnoticed or is undervalued – even by daughters themselves, Alford said. The study noted that many of the women who were interviewed initially – almost naturally – anticipated talking about their mothers instead of themselves. “When asked to think about themselves as daughters and their communication in the relationship, many found themselves doing so for the very first time,” the researchers wrote. “These women noted that putting the emphasis on themselves and describing their role as adult daughters felt strange or awkward in its newness.” Showing Respect Respect, the study showed, was the most common topic addressed by the daughters. Based on the interviews, a daughter’s respect for her mother could be demonstrated by avoiding conflict, silencing one’s disagreement with her mother, reacting positively to her mother’s messages and supporting her mother’s power position. “Daughters demonstrated respect by adapting their communication to affirm their mothers’ competence or otherwise avoid offending and disregarding them,” the researchers wrote. One woman, identified as Kelsey in the study, said she listens to her mother talk about things she dislikes and sometimes apologizes to her mother even when she doesn’t feel apologetic. “I would never say, ‘Mom, I don’t want to hear it,’ because I would never say that to my mom. Ever. I would listen to her … I would listen to her tell me things I don’t wanna hear all day long, and never tell her,” Kelsey said. Providing Protection A number of the adult daughters interviewed felt there was an expectation that they would actively protect their mothers. This could be a daughter protecting her mother’s wellbeing, protecting her mother from being taken advantage of, or protecting her from the disrespectful actions of others, including siblings. One woman, Sabine, described a time when she had to stand up to her brother because she felt he was taking advantage of their mother’s goodwill. In addition, she said she had to “get after” her mother for not employing boundaries with the brother. The examples in the study illustrated that many daughters were happy to be champions for their mothers, but some noted that it was difficult to be protectors. Eliciting Mothering A number of the daughters who were interviewed said they struggle a bit with their roles as adults – or even as mothers themselves – who still need to engage with their mothers and ask for assistance. Many said they still seek interaction and approval from their mothers as a sense of pride. “When a daughter calls upon her mother for guidance or activates a need for an emotional evaluation such as pride, she is fulfilling her role expectations,” the researchers wrote. One woman, Lottie, said of her mother: “She compliments me as a mother. I think I feel like a good daughter when I feel like I am making her proud and she lets me know that she is proud of me … and I guess that makes me feel like a good daughter.” Connection In their descriptions of “good daughters,” a number of the daughters interviewed said it was important to set aside time to connect with their mothers. This, the study showed, could be anything from talking on the phone, meeting face to face, taking grandchildren to visit or even moving to a home nearby. Sometimes the expectations are stated outright by the mothers, but that’s not always the case, the researchers explained. Changing the Language Alford said her research has shown that the “language” of daughtering is almost nonexistent in social discourse as well as in scholarly or popular works. For example, she said, a daughter who is caring or supportive is often described as being “motherly.” “That’s an example of giving credit to mothers as being the only people who care for others, versus saying that the daughter is a caring person or that she’s supportive,” Alford said. “We want to think of daughtering as its own form of work and responsibility and put a value on that, so we can see the value that we’re putting into our family relationships and family systems.” One desired outcome of research into this area, Alford said, is that daughters will be given a voice and their valuable work within the family will be acknowledged. “The work that daughters do is important and valuable and the more that we talk about it and bring it to light, the more that we will understand what daughters can bring to the relationship and improve the mother-daughter relationship,” she said. ABOUT THE STUDY The study, “Role Expectations and Role Evaluations in Daughtering: Constructing the Good Daughter,” is published in the Journal of Family Communication. Authors are Allison Alford, Ph.D., clinical assistant professor of business communication in Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business; and Meredith Marko Harrigan, Ph.D., professor of communication at SUNY Geneseo. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 17,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT HANKAMER SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY At Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, integrity stands shoulder-to-shoulder with analytic and strategic strengths. The School’s top-ranked programs combine rigorous classroom learning, hands-on experience in the real world, a solid foundation in Christian values and a global outlook. Making up approximately 25 percent of the University’s total enrollment, undergraduate students choose from 16 major areas of study. Graduate students choose from full-time, executive or online MBA or other specialized master’s programs, and Ph.D. programs in Information Systems, Entrepreneurship or Health Services Research. The Business School also has campuses located in Austin and Dallas, Texas. Visit www.baylor.edu/business and follow on Twitter at twitter.com/Baylor_Business.
It was a historic election in Georgia that saw changing tastes and shifting tides among voters across the state. The coverage was extensive and the experts from front and center in local and statewide media lending their expert perspectives and opinions to reports and journalists about the results. “A political science associate professor on Georgia Southern’s Armstrong Campus in Savannah says all the women who made history in Tuesday’s election overcame significant obstacles with their campaigns in Bulloch and Chatham counties. “Those three new women beat incumbents and that’s very unusual,” said Dr. Lara Wessel. “So when we see women or men beating incumbents, again we want to look to try to figure out what’s going on behind those election results. “What it says to me is that the citizens of Statesboro and the citizens of Savannah are interested in change.” Dr. Wessel adds that the five women who won elections are much more than trailblazers, they’re local proof female candidates can break through barriers that have held women out of some local political offices for centuries.” November 06 – NBC News Soon, Savannah will be welcoming four new aldermen, and two new alderman-at-large. “It’s majority progressive. It’s majority female. It’s majority community activists. A lot community activists," said Georgia Southern Associate Professor of Sociology Dr. Ned Rinalducci … “We’re going to see a shift to deal with things like affordable housing, homelessness, and less on development and tourism,” said Rinalducci. Rinalducci said the city saw a turnover back in 2015-ushering in more pro-business candidates. He said this election’s shift towards could be a sign of dissatisfaction with voters. “I think clearly there’s some discontent with the priorities of city government previous, and I think that was communicated clearly with yesterday’s election results," said Rinalducci. November 06 – ABC News The coming twelve months are going to be a busy one for political reporters across the state and country. If you are a journalist looking for political experts who can be a solid source of context and perspective for your stories – let us help. Dr. Lara Wessel and Ned Rinalducci are both available to speak to media about politics, elections and issues affecting voters. Simply click on either expert’s icon to arrange an interview. https://fox28media.com/news/local/municipal-election-draws-low-turnout-equates-to-sweeping-changes-in-savannah-races
Watching Holiday Rom-Coms Can Be a Hallmark of a Strong Relationship, Marriage
Staying in for a good holiday romance movie, or Hallmark marathon? Ronald Rogge, psychology professor from the University of Rochester, says holiday rom-coms and chill can be great for your marriage or relationship. Watching and discussing five movies about relationships over a month can cut the three-year divorce rate for newlyweds in half, according to Ronald Rogge, associate professor of clinical psychology at the University of Rochester. Rogge’s 2014 study involving 174 couples was the first long-term investigation to compare different types of early marriage intervention programs. The findings showed that an inexpensive, fun, and relatively simple movie-and-talk approach can be just as effective as other more intensive therapist-led methods—reducing the divorce or separation rate from 24 to 11 percent after three years. "We thought the movie treatment would help, but not nearly as much as the other programs in which we were teaching all of these state-of-the-art skills," said Rogge, lead author of the study. "The results suggested that husbands and wives have a pretty good sense of what they might be doing right and wrong in their relationships. Thus, you might not need to teach them a whole lot of skills to cut the divorce rate. You might just need to get them to think about how they are currently behaving. And for five movies to give us a benefit over three years—that is awesome." Overall, Rogge’s research found that couples who'd watched relationship & romance movies together and talked about what they watched, were 50 percent less likely to divorce. Other holiday-specific movies used in the original study, or that work well to watch as a couple, include “Family Man,” “Four Christmases,” “Surviving Christmas,” “When Harry Met Sally,” “Love Actually,” and, of course, “It’s a Wonderful Life.”
Why are the wolves of Wall Street so worried about Elizabeth Warren?
Elizabeth Warren started her campaign for the presidency far from being the front-runner. She trailed the likes of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders dramatically, often in third place or worse and usually in single digits. But her resolve stood, she provided plans and policy planks. And … she found a target and took aim at the wealthy. All of her ideas that include costly policies about health care and education come with billion- and even trillion-dollar price tags. Usually these concepts are laughed off the debate stage – but Warren carefully and strategically costed them out. And those covering the costs of her ideas are the banks along with the rich and wealthy. Her ideas caught fire with supporters and now Warren is seen as a legitimate contender for the White House. It has some nervous and many taking notice. It’s a role that Ms. Warren unabashedly embraces, as an increasing number of voters, as well as a few veterans of the finance industry, see her as the policymaker who can address the growing wealth gap in the United States and take on the corruption and excess in the business world. Ms. Warren has made battling corporate greed and corruption a central theme of her fiercely populist campaign, mixing anti-elitist oratory with policy plans calling for sweeping new regulations. On Friday morning she released an ambitious proposal to pay for her “Medicare for all” program, with provisions directly affecting Wall Street: aggressive new taxes on billionaires, an additional tax on financial transactions like stock trades and annual investment gains taxes for the wealthiest households. Just hours later she told an audience in Iowa: “Our democracy has been hijacked by the rich and the powerful.” Interviews with more than two dozen hedge-fund managers, private-equity and bank officials, analysts and lobbyists made clear that Ms. Warren has stirred more alarm than any other Democratic candidate. (Senator Bernie Sanders, who describes himself as a socialist, is also feared, but is considered less likely to capture the nomination.) November 04 – New York Times Are you a journalist covering the race for the Whitehouse? Then let our experts help. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. A published author and a media ‘go-to’ on U.S. politics, he is available to speak with media regarding this topic. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
At first glance, it just seems like an obvious next step as online retail and same day delivery are pushing forward at lightening speeds. But recently, companies like UPS, CVS and WakeMed are exploring the idea of drugs and other health related items being delivered by drone. An M2 drone developed by UPS partner Matternet made the deliveries. The drone flew autonomously but was monitored by a remote operator who could intervene if needed. In each case, it hovered about 20 feet above the delivery destination and lowered its package to the ground using a winch and cable. The deliveries mark an expansion of UPS' partnership with Matternet, established in March to deliver medical samples using unmanned drones at WakeMed's flagship hospital and campus in Raleigh, North Carolina. The partnership has logged more than 1,500 drone deliveries at WakeMed so far. UPS subsidiary UPS Flight Forward (UPSFF) plans to build out its ground infrastructure to expand to other industries. "UPS is exploring and developing drone delivery in various industries, including some that need drone delivery to homes," said company spokesperson Kyle Peterson. The residential deliveries also represent an expansion of UPS' partnership with CVS. UPS began setting up package pickup and return locations in CVS stores nationwide this summer. The two are collaborating to develop drone delivery options, and UPS plans to expand drone deliveries beyond healthcare facilities. November 08 - TechNewsWorld https://www.technewsworld.com/story/86342.html It’s fast, and convenient – but is it right? Morvarid Rahmani has these findings that relate to the newest drone capabilities and approval to move forward from the FAA: It is exciting to hear about the FAA approval of using drones for delivering medical packages. Using drones to deliver medical packages can give rural communities access to products and medical supplies, which they would not be able to access otherwise. This delivery model is a way of incorporating social concerns and conditions of underserved populations into business practices. ·Successful implementation of inclusive business practices requires collaboration of for-profit firms with the public sector, civil society organizations, and communities. Using drones to deliver medial packages is a great example of collaboration between a governmental agency and for-profit companies, which is toward the dual goals of promoting efficiency and inclusion. Technology-driven innovations such as delivery drones or driverless vehicles not only facilitate last-mile delivery, they help with the inclusion of new sets of “customers”, especially those in remote locations or rural areas with poor infrastructure. Delivery drones are results of “technology push,” i.e., the solution came prior to the identification of the problem. These technologies enable inclusive retailing and distribution for large (excluded) communities all over the world. We know other retail giants (Amazon, Walmart, etc.) are going to use drones in the future but are they eyeing this option too or do they already have a plan ready? Do the risks outweigh the reward when it comes to safety and ensuring the proper prescription reaches the right patient? Is there enough oversight to ensure that criminal elements or corruption are kept at bay? Who is liable for the delivery? Or, is this just part of our evolving world that is coming and that it needs to be regulated by accepted? There are a lot of questions about the technological advancement of drones in supply chain – if you are a journalist covering this topic – let us help with your coverage. Morvarid Rahmani is an Assistant Professor of Operations Management at Scheller College of Business at Georgia Tech. She is an expert in the areas of research is on collaboration in work processes such as new product development, management/IT consulting, and education. Dr. Rahmani is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simple click on her icon to arrange an interview.
Trying to figure out the 25th Amendment? Let our experts help with your coverage.
With the race for the Whitehouse hitting a fever pitch early – and as Democrats and even some Republicans pull out every stop to overtake Donald Trump’s chances at re-election in just over a year, the topic of invoking the 25th Amendment and removing the President from office is getting a lot of coverage and press. Professor Brian Kalt from Michigan State University is one of only a few legal scholars on the 25th Amendment. He’s noticed that more and more people, pundits and even the media continue to misunderstand the 25th amendment including Robert Reich. Reich, a former US secretary of labour and is now a professor at the University of California at Berkeley should know better. Here’s what he says is wrong with Reich’s take on the 25th. “It’s ridiculous to say that it’s not clear what they mean by executive departments. It’s clear who the cabinet members who would participate are. And he’s right that if there is the threat of an imminent nuclear strike or something like that, it would be appropriate to use the 25th amendment. But he falls into the usual traps of suggesting that the only reason it hasn’t been used already is sycophancy. Barring something like an eminent catastrophe, we have not seen anything as yet that would warrant using section 4. He’s not confronting the built-in limits of section 4. The failure to use the 25th amendment so far is a reflection of its design, not a perversion of it.” Are you a reporter covering politics and do you have questions about the 25th Amendment, how it works and just what it requires to be invoked? Then let our experts help with your questions and ensure your coverage is accurate. Brian Kalt is a Professor of Law and a Harold Norris Faculty Scholar at Michigan State University. Brian is an expert in constitutional law of the presidency, presidential pardons, impeachment, succession and the 25th Amendment.
The Great Recession: The downturn that wouldn’t end
The Great Recession ended 10 years ago, but University of Rochester economist Narayana Kocherlakota says it is still very much with us. David Primo, associate professor of political science and business administration, agrees that the country continues to feel the effects of the recession, though his take differs from Kocherlakota’s. And Lisa Kahn, a professor of economics at the University of Rochester, sees another lasting effect from the Great Recession. “Unemployment is very low right now, leading people to think that we’ve recovered,” says Kocherlakota. “Income levels, however, are now as much as 15 percent below where they might have been, if not for the recession.” Many economists blame the income slowdown on a natural decrease in the rate at which new ideas are discovered. But Kocherlakota, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, attributes it to something else. “Businesses don’t want to lock up money in physical investments because they’re nervous about another Great Recession,” he says. “That’s why there’s less innovation, and that’s why we have an income slowdown.” The Great Recession began in December 2007 after the bottom fell out of the US housing market. That was followed by a shortage of assets in the financial markets and the collapse of the financial sector, including banks, credit card companies, and insurance companies. The recession, the worst in the US since the Great Depression of the 1930s, officially lasted through June 2009, though unemployment levels didn’t peak until October of that year. According to Primo, the losers were homeowners, among others. The banks, which many observers say bear some responsibility for the recession, were bailed out by the government, while homeowners were not. That perceived double standard has led to the Occupy Movement, support for Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, and the election of Donald Trump, according to Primo. “Economists may be 100 percent correct in saying it was necessary to bail out the banks,” says Primo. “But that’s a difficult political argument to hear if you lost your house, while banks were bailed out.” Says Kahn: “Many firms take the opportunity provided by a recession to introduce technologies that reduce their reliance on workers. In the old days, we had bank tellers giving out money; now machines can do that,” she says. “In manufacturing, we’re shifting more and more to machines instead of workers. And a lot of that shift takes place during recessions.” Kahn points out that wages and employment have been falling for the last 30 years in exactly the types of jobs that are increasingly performed by machines. Kahn identifies an additional recession-related phenomenon, one that specifically targets college graduates. “It has always been bad to graduate during a recession,” says Kahn. “But the lost earnings from the Great Recession are much larger than they were in previous downturns, and it’s something that will stay with them long term.” Not only are fewer jobs available, the graduates find themselves competing against experienced workers who had recently been laid off. The net result is persistently lower wages.
Coming next fall, Georgia Southern University School of Human Ecology will debut the Birth to Kindergarten Teacher Education Program. The program offers students the opportunity to apply for a Georgia teaching certificate at the completion of all program requirements. The program was designed to operate with a strong social justice lens. “We, the program developers and supporters, know how important it is to recognize the role that contextual influences like race, religion, income level and family structure play in a child’s growth and development,” said Georgia Southern Associate Professor of Child and Family Development Dina Walker-DeVose, Ph.D. “Our program seeks to cultivate cohorts of teachers who are equipped with a sound knowledge base that is grounded in research, a teaching pedagogy that is culturally responsive and flexible to the needs of diverse groups of children, and a spirit of advocacy to support and fight for each and every child, particularly those who are marginalized in our society.” Associate Dean of the College of Behavioral and Social Sciences, John Kraft, Ph.D., said the decision to house the program on the Armstrong Campus in Savannah was influenced by M. Ann Levett, Ed.D., alumna and superintendent of Savannah-Chatham County Public Schools. Levett is experienced in developing early childhood education centers. “Dr. Levett’s vision is more than childcare or pre-k in the ordinary sense,” Kraft said. “She wants these children to experience a holistic program that integrates systemic child development and educational programming and intervention. Birth to kindergarten certified teachers are the foundation for her early childhood education centers.” Walker-Devose said program graduates will have experience working with young students, and they will benefit from a financial standpoint because of the specific training. “Our students will enter the classroom feeling well-equipped for the difficult task of meeting children at their current level of mastery and moving them toward identified goals,” she said. “They will be able to do this while recognizing that certain contextual factors such as race and family income have real impacts on student outcomes. Equipped with this knowledge, skill set and a teaching license, they will be compensated at higher rates than those who are not licensed.” Walker-Devose said Southeast Georgia communities will be one of the biggest benefactors of the program. “Every community that is touched by the children who will be educated by the amazing teachers we will produce will benefit from the program,” she said. “Research shows a positive return on investment for every dollar that is invested in quality early childhood education. This body of research is another reason that society should be looking for ways to support its youngest learners and fairly compensate those trusted with their care and education.” Are you a reporter looking to learn more about Human Ecology and how it will positively impact communities not just in Georgia but potentially across America? Then let our experts help. John Kraft is the associate dean of the College of Behavioral and Social Sciences at Georgia Southern. He has written about human social behavior and is considered an expert in the field. Dr. Kraft is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
U.S. economy continues to expand, but at a slower pace, reaching about 2 percent growth in 2020
INDIANAPOLIS -- The U.S. economy will continue to expand for a 12th consecutive year in 2020, but by only about 2 percent and struggling to remain at that level by year's end. Indiana's economic output will be more anemic, growing at a rate of about 1.25 percent, according to a forecast released today by the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. Over the past year, political dysfunction and international trade friction have disrupted supply chains and eroded both consumer and business confidence. U.S. employment has grown during 2019 but will decelerate throughout 2020, well short of 150,000 jobs per month and possibly to about 100,000 by year's end. A tight labor market will continue to be an issue for many companies. "The total number of job openings in the economy peaked in late 2018," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "Average hours worked have been flat over the past year, and auto sales have been flat for nearly two years. Given the reliance of the U.S. economy on consumer spending, these are disturbing signs. But they are vague signs, and not enough to convince us that the end of the expansion is in sight. "We expect that growth will be weaker than in the past two years, and this outlook is likely a best-case outcome," he added. "There is massive uncertainty in the current situation." The Kelley School presented its forecast this morning to Indianapolis community and business leaders at IUPUI. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in seven other cities across the state through Nov. 20. Indiana's more meager economic growth expected in 2020 can largely be attributed to the outsized presence of manufacturing and particularly tight labor markets, said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. Manufacturing contracts more rapidly versus other areas of the economy, and tight labor markets limit employers' capacity to grow, he said. Expectations about business investment have fallen short, and corporations have been buying back stock instead of making capital investments. The trade war with China and slowing global expansion have also affected state manufacturers. The world is about to record its slowest economic growth since the financial crisis of 2009. Next year, global growth is projected at 3.4 percent, with downside risks continuing to build. China and the European Union each face structural issues amid tariffs imposed by the United States. Brexit remains unresolved. Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management showed that manufacturing activity has slowed to its lowest rate since the beginning of the Great Recession. Indiana has sought to diversify its economy in recent decades, but manufacturing output represents nearly 28 percent of gross state product. Indiana continues to lead the nation in manufacturing employment, with more than 17 percent of its jobs in that sector. "Constrained by a historically tight labor market, Indiana is expected to experience slow growth in jobs and gross output, along with the possibility for continued rising wages," Brewer said. "With fewer and fewer available people to hire, tightness of the Indiana labor markets will serve as a drag to output and employment growth." The outlook for the Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson metropolitan statistical area is slightly better, with expected growth between 1.5 and 2 percent. "Indianapolis continues to draw in talent and investment that should help it exceed the overall state level of growth," said Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics. "However, there is risk that weakness in the broader economy, and especially weakness in manufacturing, could make this forecast too optimistic." Other highlights from the forecast: The national and state unemployment rates will hold steady. The nation's rate could be below 4 percent by year's end, and the state will stay at or below full employment through 2020. Inflation will rise and end 2020 close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The stock market will struggle to get average returns with headwinds from trade, supply chain disruption and policy uncertainty. Earnings continue to exceed expectations, yet lack of definitive trade consensus continues to drive headwinds. Interest rates will remain low. The 10-year Treasury rate should stay below 2 percent and mortgages below 4 percent. Speculative grade bond yields have been rising, indicating increased risk of insolvency for marginal firms. Entry-level wage growth could cause costs to rise, earnings to fall and growth to stagnate for firms heading into 2020. Energy prices will be relatively stable, with average prices similar to those in 2019. Business investment will remain weak, although a little improved from this year. Housing will achieve a meager increase, ending two years of negative growth. Government spending will grow, but much more slowly than the past year, as the impact of the 2018 budget deal ends. The starting point for the forecast is an econometric model of the United States, developed by IU's Center for Econometric Model Research, which analyzes numerous statistics to develop a national forecast for the coming year. A similar econometric model of Indiana provides a corresponding forecast for the state economy based on the national forecast plus data specific to Indiana. A select panel of Kelley faculty members, led by Indiana Business Research Center co-director Timothy Slaper, then adjusts the forecast to reflect additional insights it has on the economic situation. A detailed report on the outlook for 2020 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. In addition to predictions about the nation, state and Indianapolis, it also will include forecasts for other Indiana cities and key economic sectors. Presenting the forecast at the Indianapolis Business Outlook Tour event were Phil T. Powell, associate dean of Kelley academic programs at Indianapolis and clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy; Cathy Bonser-Neal, associate professor of finance; and Anderson.
