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Supply network structure and systemic risk

Demand uncertainty can present a serious challenge for any business, especially when it comes to managerial decisions on inventory. But when an economic downturn happens, the challenge becomes systemic. According to research by Nikolay Osadchiy, assistant professor of information systems & operations management, and coauthors Vishal Gaur (Cornell U) and Sridhar Seshadri (Indian School of Business), systemic risk is more greatly felt depending on where a company sits in the supply chain. The trio discovered that while an economic downturn presented a serious hurdle for retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers alike, manufacturers were more prone to systemic risk given their placement upstream in the supply chain. Manufacturers had “a more dispersed customer base,” which the authors noted was more closely “associated with higher systematic risk.” Manufacturers also experienced greater systemic risk due to the effect of aggregation of orders over time. They wrote, “A market shock in one period may affect sales over several periods due to lead times and time lags in managerial decision making.” Source:

Using social media to assess public sentiment

Large corporations, government agencies, and political campaigns increasingly are using social media listening platforms and software to monitor public sentiment online. According to research from David Schweidel, associate professor of marketing, and Wendy Moe (U of Maryland), the information gleaned from social media can provide useful insights for decision making, but only if the “comments are measured appropriately.” Since prior marketing research has focused on one social media venue or failed to acknowledge the differences in multiple social media venues, Schweidel and Moe discovered that these measurements of public sentiment fell short. Instead, they analyzed brand sentiment for an enterprise software company and a telecommunications business across a variety of social media platforms. Accounting for factors that varied across different social media platforms, the authors derived a measure of general brand impression (GBI). They showed that general brand impression was a leading indicator of shifts in brand tracking studies and stock price movements. Taken together, Schweidel and Moe’s “measure of GBI effectively captures movement in the underlying sentiment toward the brand.” Source:

The return on international investment products

Individual investors have access to an ever-increasing number of US-registered equity funds that invest in international assets, as well as institutional investment products focused on global assets. Despite the growing importance of global equity markets for US investors, there is little academic research devoted to their study. Jeffrey Busse, associate professor of finance, Amit Goyal (University of Lausanne), and Sunil Wahal (Arizona State U) advanced the research, tackling the common theory that less developed markets are less efficient and, consequently, “exploitable by active fund managers.” The trio analyzed a large sampling of active retail mutual funds and institutional products investing in global equity markets, concentrating their research on a sample period from 1991 to 2009. The authors used quarterly returns net of trading costs and gross of fees. They also collected information on annual fee schedules, portfolio turnover, and assets under management. On average and in the aggregate, the data showed a lack of “superior performance” for the sampling. The research paper won the Spangler IQAM Best Paper in Investments Prize at the 2014 European Finance Association Annual Meeting in Lugano, Switzerland. Source:

Speculation and its impact on trading volume

Financial researchers have long wondered exactly which economic forces cause variation in asset prices and returns. For instance, traders will often target financial instruments due to their volatile and highly liquid nature, such as US treasury bonds. This speculative behavior takes advantage of the frequent price movements of the product. But the influence of that behavior remains the subject of debate. Francisco Barillas, assistant professor of finance, and Kristoffer Nimark (Cornell U) take a deep dive into the issue by investigating the impact of speculative trading activity on the variation of long maturity US bond yields. For their analysis, Barillas and Nimark use public information to develop a rational model to track “informed traders that take on speculative positions to exploit what they perceive to be inaccurate market expectations about future bond prices.” They argue that their research takes a more “suitable approach for empirical work” by factoring in how traders exploit private information that other traders may not have. The authors note that bond prices alone are not enough information for predicting bond returns. The two write, “If traders have access to different information, this price may differ from what an individual trader would be willing to pay for the bond if he had to hold it until maturity.” Ultimately, they find that this speculation remains a key driver of trading volume, accounting for a “substantial fraction of the variation in historical US bond yields along with the usual analysis of estimating returns based on bond prices.” Source:

The rise of ETFs and market impact

As the popularity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to grow at a rapid pace, the role that these basket or index-linked products play in the market is an ever-growing concern. For instance, ETFs now constitute more than 30% of the daily value traded in US exchanges. Suhas A. Sridharan, assistant professor of accounting, and coauthors Doron Israeli (Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya) and Charles M. C. Lee (Stanford U) dive into the issue by examining the impact of ETF ownership on the availability of information on individual securities and the market for those same securities. The trio analyzes a sample of 443 unique ETFs for the firm-year between 2000 and 2014. They note that ETFs are a particularly attractive investment vehicle for less informed traders. With trading costs for individual securities rising as a result of the flow to ETFs, more informed traders have less of an incentive “to expend resources to obtain firm-specific information.” As the depth and size of the ETF market grows, individual stock prices become less informative. Source:

Relational signaling and gift giving

Prior research indicates that gift givers are motivated by competing goals. Often, they will simply select an item of the recipient’s choosing. However, gift givers are also likely to select an item on their own to help show knowledge of the recipient and further define and maintain a personal connection. Morgan Ward, assistant professor of marketing, and coauthor Susan Broniarczyk (U Texas) take the research a step further by analyzing how the closeness of a relationship further impacts the gift-giving decision when a gift registry is readily available. The duo employed five separate studies with human subjects presented with various gift-giving scenarios. The paper notes, “We find that despite their stated primary intention to please recipients, close (vs. distant) givers ultimately are more likely to ignore recipients’ explicit registry preferences in favor of freely chosen gifts.” Ward and Broniarczyk conclude that divergence from the registry was not necessarily about finding a better gift. Instead, it occurred only when givers specifically received attribution for their selection. The closeness of the personal connection resulted in a “perceptual distortion of the gift options in favor of relational-signaling gifts.” Distant givers were much more likely to pick an item from the registry, selecting gifts closely aligned with recipients’ preferences. Source: