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Does Donald Trump Like Seniors?

At 78, Donald J. Trump already has 13 years of experience as a senior citizen. During his previous presidency, he occasionally referenced his senior status, particularly when discussing issues affecting older Americans. For example, in the 2020 election campaign, he acknowledged his age and addressed fellow seniors directly in his messaging, sometimes referring to himself as part of the senior community. Looking at his record, Trump appears to have a complex relationship with seniors. While expressing support for essential programs such as Social Security and Medicare, he often weaves the needs of seniors into his rhetoric. Yet some of his policy decisions have created mixed feelings among older Americans and advocacy groups. While pledging to protect these programs, he’s considered budget-cut proposals to reduce the funding of both these programs. Plus, his administration attempted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. While even the smartest of experts have learned it’s difficult to predict what Donald Trump will do on key policy decisions, there are some clues as to how his move back into the Oval Office will impact Canada and, more specifically, seniors. This topic got me wondering. Does Trump (a senior himself), like seniors? Let’s look closer at this demographic. Everyone knows that older people are the most reliable voters. The stats are compelling. According to Elections Canada - 75% of Canadians aged 65-74 voted compared to 48% of those aged 18-24. - The statistics for our US neighbours are similar, with 70% of Americans aged 65+ voting and 50% of Americans aged 18-29 voting. Knowing this voting power of the senior demographic, did Trump pander to this voting cohort? Yes, he most certainly did. He knew that as people age, their concerns narrow to a smaller list of critical topics such as Financial Security, Health, and Safety.  During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump focused heavily on appealing to older voters, who historically make up a significant portion of the electorate and are more likely to vote. His campaign emphasized economic stability, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and national security—particularly relevant to older demographics. Let’s take a closer look at how the Trump administration could impact Canada's senior demographic in the following areas: Inflation Background: Inflation has a direct correlation to the cost of living. As the prices of goods and services rise over time, the purchasing power of money decreases – a challenge for many seniors. Critical expenses like housing, healthcare, food, and utilities could increase noticeably, putting pressure on limited retirement incomes and pensions. All this is stressful. According to a 2024 national survey of over 2,000 Canadians (conducted by Leger on behalf of FP Canada), money remains the top stressor for Canadians, with 44 percent citing money as their primary concern; That's up from 40 percent in 2023 and 38 percent in both 2022 and 2021. What This Means: Two of Trump’s biggest promises in his campaign (mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and more restrictive trade regulations) would have a "significant impact," according to an article by Ellen Cushing in the Atlantic.  A domestic labour shortage plus double-digit import taxes would raise food prices on both sides of the border. Cushing goes on to say that “deporting undocumented immigrants would reduce the number of workers who pick crops by 40-50%.” While this rhetoric may have played well during the campaign, you can't fake the simple math here. Fewer workers means higher wages. That means higher prices. And the senior demographic will be hit hard because of their fixed incomes. Many will eat less of the expensive grocery store items like fresh meat, fruits and vegetables to make ends meet. Food prices will inevitably climb with these policies. The only question is when. According to a new poll conducted for CIBC and Financial Planning Canada on November 27, 2023, approximately 75% of working Canadians still need a formal financial plan for retirement. And many retirees face economic difficulties.  A whopping 25% are still carrying debt into retirement.  Many also report they have a substantial portion of debt and report that their retirement lifestyle isn't as comfortable as expected. The impact of inflation could be dire with few solutions; it is different for these older Canadians because they cannot re-enter the workforce. The only saving grace is that many of the hardest-hit Canadians are homeowners with equity options. Interest Rates Prediction: According to Beata Caranci, SVP & Chief Economist of TD Bank, the US is likely to raise interest rates to control growth. Canada is also expected to increase its rates, mainly to keep the Canadian dollar stable against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of Canada could be forced to rescind the projected planned interest rate reductions or at least reduce them. However, it's a delicate balancing act.  Our economy could suffer if we don’t mirror the US increases in interest rates. Impact: Increasing Canadian interest rates will impact seniors by increasing mortgage carrying costs. At the same time, older Canadians with investment savings could see increased returns on these savings. A rise in interest rates would also impact housing prices and foreign exchange rates. House Prices Background: Economic, demographic, and policy-related factors influence home prices in Canada. The new Trump administration will undoubtedly impact these factors. To understand this area, let's examine some significant variables affecting housing costs. 1. Supply and Demand When housing supply is limited, and demand is high, prices rise. Conversely, when supply exceeds demand, prices stagnate or fall. Should the new administration adopt more restrictive immigration policies in the US, Canada might see an increased influx of skilled workers and families seeking an alternative place to live. Housing demand will likely increase in major Canadian cities—Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary- resulting in price increases. 2. Population Growth An increase in population or immigration boosts housing demand, particularly in urban centers, consequently increasing home prices. Canada welcomed 485,000 immigrants in 2024, many of whom settled in cities like Toronto and Vancouver. This influx has driven up demand for housing, contributing to price increases. The Canadian government has recently reduced the number of immigrants we allow into our country, dropping the number from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025. Current immigration numbers plus any overflow from the US should keep demand buoyant and we could see home prices continue to rise. However, Canada needs more housing, especially in high-demand urban areas. In addition to immigration, slow construction timelines and zoning restrictions are contributing factors. Canada's ongoing housing shortage and the potential impacts of Donald Trump's election win in the U.S. could exert upward pressure on home prices, particularly in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver. These cities, already grappling with limited housing and high prices, will likely see further price increases due to increased demand.  Without robust policy interventions to increase the housing supply, Canada’s housing prices, particularly in major centers, will likely continue rising. And there will be winners and losers here. This is great news for seniors wishing to sell and exit the market by finding other living arrangements, such as renting, moving in with family, or entering retirement homes. It is even better news for seniors wishing to age in place as they will have more equity to fund their retirement. But it’s disappointing news for those wishing to downsize and stay in the same communities. They may be able to sell high, but they could also be forced to buy high. 3. Foreign Currency Trump's policies, such as tax cuts and protectionist trade measures, have historically strengthened the U.S. dollar. If similar policies are reintroduced, the U.S. dollar could become more robust due to increased investor confidence and perceived economic growth in the U.S. That’s bad for Canadians traveling or living in the U.S.  Trump's potential trade disputes, particularly with China, and his aggressive geopolitical stance could also create uncertainty in global markets. While this might temporarily strengthen the U.S. dollar as a haven, long-term concerns about trade wars and deficits could cause fluctuations, impacting the Canadian dollar's stability against the U.S. dollar. This volatility directly impacts Canadians, especially those with significant financial exposure to the U.S. dollar. A second Trump presidency will likely impact the exchange rate between Canadian and U.S. dollars, which is especially relevant for 85% of Canadian Snowbirds, who, according to Snowbird Advisor, spend winters in the United States. This number was estimated to be 900,000 in 2023. These seniors may face increased expenses for property taxes, utilities, and other daily living costs in the U.S. If exchange rate volatility persists, locking in more favourable rates or using specialized currency exchange services, US credit/debit cards with lower transaction fees, and using US dollar accounts might be wise - especially for more significant financial transactions. The Bottom Line One thing is certain. Trump's second term has the potential to impact many Canadian seniors if he implements the policies he discussed during his election campaign. While some could benefit financially from higher home equity and investment returns, many may need help with increased living costs, especially food and foreign exchange challenges, particularly Snowbirds and those on fixed incomes.  While we are all watching this situation unfold, one thing is sure.  It's difficult to predict if Trump’s second term will make Canadian or US seniors "great again."

Tokyo International Conference on African Development

Aston University co-hosted parts of the eighth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD8). There was a total of six talks hosted by the University, five of which are available to catch up on below. TICAD8 is the eighth event of TICAD, having been initiated by Japan in 1932. The conference brings together international organisations and business representatives from African countries and Japan to promote the digitalisation of African nations to keep pace with other leading economies. Cyber security and data privacy were two of the main topics up for discussion as well as central bank digital currencies (CBDC). CBDC is a government-issued fiat currency, that is, a currency not backed by a commodity such as gold. The use of an ideal CBDC will eliminate over 100,000 armoured cars carrying cash for ATM machines all over the world, reducing CO² emissions. Experts say transitioning to fiat currency requires the highest level of cyber security. The digitalisation of the healthcare sector in Africa Professor Georg Holländer of Oxford University speaks with Aston University visiting professor - and GVE founder - Koji Fusa. The discussion focuses on the benefits of an electronic health record for both an individual and the health care provider but will also relate these benefits to issues of public health and research. The technical challenges of providing the conventional infrastructure to establish health care records will be touched on with a focus placed on data security. Reasons will be pointed out that impede the uptake of electronic health records, especially in low and middle income countries, and possible solutions are presented to overcome this problem. CBDC and private sector digital currency will facilitate the digitalisation of nations of African countries CBDC will require the highest security and privacy protection. Professor Koji Fusa, Cyber Security Innovation Centre, Aston University, CEO of GVE Ltd discusses the benefits of a comprehensive digitalisation of fiat currency. This will become a powerful digital infrastructure which could expand into other areas like healthcare. The cyber security issue pointed by the US NIST in 2016 could be solved by having a different set of systems which could reduce the risks being presented by international hacking groups having quantum computers in the future. The World Bank's support for digitalisation of Africa Takashi Miyahara, the Executive Director of the World Bank Group, presents this talk in his personal capacity. Mr. Miyahara introduces the World Bank’s contribution to date, and Japan’s collaboration with the Bank, for digital development of Africa. Mr. Miyahara worked for the Ministry of Finance of Japan since 1986 before he took the current position in January 2021. Vaccine and climate transition in Africa René Karsenti, senior adviser and honorary president of the International Capital Market Association (ICMA), former board chair of the International Finance Facility for Immunisation (IFFIm), honorary director general of the European Investment Bank (EIB) and member of the Global Advisory Board of GVE Ltd, talks to Aston University's Koji Fusa about vaccine and climate transition in Africa: two major challenges, lessons from innovative ESG financing and future endeavours. Health and vaccine finance, climate transition and sustainable finance have sparked a revolution in thinking about innovative solutions leading to implementing successfully new humanitarian finance such as IFFIm, financing GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, as well as other new ESG investments to achieve a positive impact. He says: "Needs remain huge in Africa. "We are now at a decisive moment in such ESG investments. We have evolved in a few years from a situation where investors knew - and cared - little about what their investments were supporting, to one where purpose matters more than ever. "But only by recognizing the urgency for action particularly in Africa and the power of ESG investment, collaboration, technology and innovation would get us there." Cyber security, financial integrity and developments Professor George Feiger is the executive dean of the College of Business and Social Sciences at Aston University. He suggests truly secure data transfer has the capability to transform more than medicine and finance in the efficiency sense and also holds out the promise of helping to clean up the even more consequential problem of looting of the state.

GEORGE FEIGER

Inflation: Simple Causes But a Complicated Cure JULY 2022 We face a wave of strikes, intended to restore the purchasing power of wages in face of inflation. But strikes cannot succeed in restoring everyone’s purchasing power. In the near term, inflation’s impact on living standards can be significantly mitigated only by importing more and so increasing our trade deficit, financed by foreign borrowing. Unwillingness to do that means we are likely to prolong the wave of strikes and so suffer a bruising recession created by restrictive monetary policy. This will cause yet more damage to living standards. However, debt-funded importing of consumption items in order to maintain living standards is poor policy longer-term. It can’t stop the harmful redistribution effects of inflation that are already emerging. Most important, it doesn’t address the longstanding source of our lagging living standards – too little economic growth and economic resilience due to our failure to grow productivity. Without increased productivity, debt-funded consumption repair will cumulate to tomorrow’s fiscal crisis. Therefore, we face a very difficult policy challenge. We must act to support living standards over the next year or two, mitigate the social problems that inflation is already causing and, simultaneously, divert our priorities (and our continuing borrowing) to foster much improved productivity growth. Causes This is a simple story. Today’s inflation demonstrates that we are poorer than we were three years ago. The value of what we, collectively, produce and earn, has shrunk, relative to the cost of the things that we seek to consume. Inflation constricts our consumption options to what we can now afford. We are poorer for two reasons. First, because we produce and earn less domestically, and second, because the things that we don’t produce but import have become scarcer, forcing us to pay more to get them. • Brexit caused an immediate and seemingly permanent devaluation of Sterling, raising the costs of everything that we import. It also seemingly permanently reduced our exports to the EU, our largest trading partner. No new trade possibilities are similar in scale, so there is a long-term loss of income. Moreover, increased non-tariff barriers have raised the cost of imports from the EU beyond the exchange rate effect. • The pandemic has reduced the worldwide supply of all sorts of goods, therefore raising their prices. This is due to supply chain problems, the zero-Covid China lockdown, the reduction in UK output because a significant portion of the population is out with Covid at any time. Crops are left rotting in the fields because there aren’t enough domestic agricultural workers and, of course, no more EU farm workers. • The war in Ukraine has escalated the costs of energy and food grains. In the future it will propel redirection of domestic resources to the production of war material, which is not edible. Consequences Inflation not only makes us, collectively, poorer, it differentially distributes the pain. • Everyone in the UK could go on strike to try to raise their wages enough to maintain their real consumption. But as the pie has shrunk, that is impossible. The extra money people get will simply chase the same, smaller amount available and the prices of goods and services will rise further. If the ensuing price rises provoke further wage increases, we chase our tails. This is the wage/price spiral that the Bank of England fears. • Some groups have more wage bargaining power than others. Perhaps the railway unions can indeed hold the country to ransom and regain their purchasing power. But then others, less empowered than railway workers, will become greater losers. • Inflation causes a flight to real assets – houses, commodities – whose values float up with the price level. Because ownership of real assets is very unequally distributed, the asset-rich minority is likely to come out better than before while the asset-poor majority lose even more. The purchasing power of people living on fixed-return assets such as retirement annuities would be devastated by a wage/price spiral. Similarly, as interest rates rise with the price level (or even faster if the Bank of England has its way), debtors on floating rate loans will be hit hard. • Different geographic areas have different mixes of people who would be gainers and losers from a wage/price spiral, exacerbating our substantial regional inequalities. Cure Part 1: Near-Term Mitigation How is it possible to offset the fall in current consumption which is provoking the wage/price spiral? People can consume more than they earn only by borrowing. The key is how that borrowing is undertaken. Households could borrow from private UK lenders, or the state could sell bonds to UK citizens and give the proceeds to other UK citizens to spend. But if all they can spend it on is the total value of UK output, that pie is shrinking. More money from borrowing would only raise prices, that is, add to inflation. Total UK consumption can exceed the value of UK output only if the extra is imported. Because the imports are paid for in another currency, borrowing to pay for those imports must be borrowing from foreign sources. The debt (public and private) that the UK owes others must rise by the value of the excess consumption. However, consuming more today by adding to our overseas debt isn’t a miracle cure. • Not everything can be imported. Domestic services of all types are provided, well, domestically. GP visits and houses and hotel rooms and haircuts will cost more as a result of wage inflation, no matter the amount of net foreign borrowing. These price increases will continue to provide some impetus to a wage/price spiral and make it more likely that the Bank of England will end up pushing the economy into recession to stop it. • The problem with debt is that you have to pay it back, and in the meantime, you pay interest on it. More consumption today means surrendering a greater amount of potential consumption in the future. Only if there is strong UK productivity growth will this foreign debt repayment not cause significant future trouble. Sadly, the UK has lagged in productivity growth among advanced economies for many years. Cure Part 2: A More Productive Economy The policy most likely to maintain social cohesion in the near term, and greater prosperity in the longer term, is a tricky two-step. We need to borrow to defend most people’s consumption in the next year or two, but then switch the budget to support growth and productivity-enhancing investment. Unless we do this, our debt repayment obligations will grow to unmanageable levels and meanwhile our level of consumption will continue to shrink relative to that of our peers. Our political system has not been good at tricky two-steps. It can manage short-term stimulus, funded by debt. But for decades the UK has failed to invest sufficiently in physical, technological and human capital to create productivity comparable to our peers. The inflation crisis is a call to action. Not only to mitigate current deterioration in living standards but to build a modern economy that sustains rising living standards into the future.

Podcast: The nine behavioural habits needed to become a trusted executive

Executive trust model designed by business author who researched Doctorate at Aston Business School Nine behaviours sit under the three pillars of trust: ability, integrity and benevolence Company bosses urged to follow example of former Unilever chief executive Successful business leaders need to rely on the power of trust, rather than just trusting in power. And helping them to make that step-change is a self-confessed “trust geek” who carried out his research at Aston Business School before setting up a not-for-profit organisation to help bosses become “trusted executives”. Dr John Blakey has published a book called The Trusted Executive: Nine Leadership Habits that Inspire Results, Relationships and Reputation, which was based on his Doctorate in Business Administration (DBA). He has since founded the Trusted Executive Foundation, based in Solihull but with clients all over the UK and overseas. He spoke about his experiences in the latest episode of the ‘Aston means business' podcast series, presented by journalist Steve Dyson. Dr Blakey said: “The global financial crisis of 2008-09 was clearly a sign that we were losing trust in business life, and that’s what sparked me to enrol on the DBA at Aston University. I wanted to go back into the classroom and do the research to get to grips with this word ‘trust’, and to help other leaders who are looking to build high-trust cultures.” He said it was important for businesses to know where their leaders stand, and “whether you stand for power or trust as the currency of your leadership”. He explained that every leader therefore needs to ask themselves a very important question: “Are they leaders who trust in power or leaders who rely on the power of trust?” Dr Blakey, who first began his own business in executive coaching with Olympic medal-winning rower Bill Barry over 20 years ago, admitted to being a “bit of a trust geek”. While existing research had discovered the three pillars of trust, namely ability, integrity and benevolence, he set out to build on that to find out the “behavioural habits” under each one. He added: “Each habit is important in terms of building and inspiring trustworthiness, whether in a leader, in a team, or in a brand.” Dr Blakey said the habits under the pillar of ability are deliver, coach, and be consistent. “As a business leader it’s important to be competent at what we do, to deliver on time, to budget, to quality,” he said. “Coaching is all about helping other people deliver ... through coaching I can tap into the potential in people and help them grow, and I have to do this delivery and this coaching consistently, day in, day out.” Dr Blakey said that as a researcher not a week goes by without a new case study around integrity, not least that of Boris Johnson and the leadership of the Conservative Party. “There are three habits under this pillar of integrity: be honest, be open, be humble. And when we talk about our political leaders, I think we are particularly talking about honesty, as we have been quizzing our prime minister around his honesty.” He said being open was about “sharing more of yourself” and went on: “I was brought up as a leader not to show weakness … but I think increasingly in the world of trust leaders are being encouraged to show a bit of vulnerability at the right time and place.” Being humble was the opposite of being arrogant, and Dr Blakey cited the recent case of P&O whose leaders, he claimed, showed a “degree of arrogance and dismissiveness about other people’s needs”. The final pillar of benevolence consists of evangelise, be brave, and be kind. He said: “It’s common human care, compassion, kindness, and if you want to be trusted, it’s equally important to be benevolent as it is to have that integrity.” Dr Blakey said a good example of his model is Paul Polman, former chief executive of Unilever, which was recognised for the way it takes care of its people, while also leading on sustainability and protecting the environment. “Paul demonstrates that you can pursue what I call the triple bottom line of profit, people and planet, and do these things in parallel. The single biggest factor in building a high-trust culture is the behaviour of the CEO and the senior leadership team leading by example.” Dr Blakey said he and his team at the Trust Executive Foundation are now helping leaders who want to stand for trust. He added: “The sweet spot for us is helping the leaders lead from the top.”

How to move to Canada: A checklist for newcomers

Moving to Canada from another country is no easy task. Whether you plan to settle in Canada permanently or relocate for better career or study options, it takes a lot of time and organization to ensure a smooth transition into life in a new country. We’ve created a handy moving to Canada checklist, which will provide you with a step-by-step guide of all the things you need to do, from deciding which immigration program to apply for to preparing for your life in Canada. In this article: Determine the best immigration pathway for you Get ready to apply for Permanent Residence (PR) Start your PR application process Wait for your PR application to be processed Get ready to travel Determine the best immigration pathway for you Choose between temporary and permanent residence When you’re first considering a move to Canada, you’ll have to choose between several immigration pathways. Many newcomers apply for Permanent Residence (PR) directly, which allows them to live and work in Canada permanently and even become Canadian citizens down the line.  The other option is to apply for temporary residence, either in the form of a study permit or work permit, so you can experience life in Canada before deciding whether you want to stay permanently or return to your home country. Due to ongoing delays in the immigration process, many newcomers who were originally planning to apply for PR (or were awaiting a response on their application) are now exploring temporary ways of moving to Canada. However, it’s important to evaluate the pros and cons of each pathway before making a decision. For instance, while it’s easier and faster to get a study permit, it’s a longer road to PR. Also, the cost of education for international students is quite high, and even though you may be allowed to work part-time while studying in Canada, you’ll still have to rely on your savings to cover living expenses during your study period.  Having Canadian work experience or educational credentials makes it easier to qualify for PR, so if your estimated Comprehensive Ranking System score is low, it may be better to try for a study permit or work permit first. Get ready to apply for Permanent Residence (PR) Decide which province you want to live in The province you choose to settle in will determine the job opportunities that’ll be available to you, the quality of life you’ll have, the cost of living, schooling options for your children, and the cultural environment. Many provinces also have Provincial Nominee Programs through which they invite newcomers whose skills are needed to fill in-demand jobs in the region. Do some research to learn about Canada’s provinces and territories, the major cities that newcomers prefer to live in, and the job market. This will help you decide which province you want to live in before you apply for PR. Identify the right PR program for you Canada has several immigration programs for PR, both at the federal and provincial levels. The Express Entry program is the most popular among newcomers and includes streams for foreign skilled workers, skilled tradespeople, and foreign nationals with Canadian work experience who want to settle in Canada permanently. The Express Entry program uses a point-based system known as the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) to rank and evaluate individual immigration applications based on factors such as skills, education, language ability, work experience, age, and more. Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conducts periodic draws to determine the CRS cut-off and, if your score is higher than the cut-off, you’ll receive an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for PR. If you’re certain about the province you want to live in, you can apply through the Provincial Nominee Program instead. Securing a provincial nomination adds 600 points to your CRS score, significantly increasing your chances of qualifying for PR. Start your PR application process Gather essential documents for your application As you start filling in your PR application, you’ll be asked to upload various documents, including: Education credentials assessment (ECA): An ECA verifies that your foreign educational degree, diploma, or certification is valid and equal to a Canadian one. The ECA process takes time, so start the process at least two months before you plan to submit your PR application. Language proficiency test scores: If your first language isn’t English or French, you’ll need to take an English and/or French language test. For English, the IRCC accepts IELTS and CELPIP test scores, while for French, you’ll need to take the TEC Canada or the TEF Canada test. Passport: Your PR application will be linked to your passport number, so be sure to check the validity of your passport and get it reissued if it’s scheduled to expire soon. Fill in and submit your Express Entry or PNP profile Once you gather all the essential documents, you’re ready to create your application. For Express Entry, you’ll need to create an account on IRCC and create a profile under one of the three streams. You’ll also need to pay an application fee, which includes the fee for a biometrics test. Once your profile is submitted, you’ll be entered into the Express Entry pool of candidates to await the next CRS draw. Your Express Entry profile will be active for 12 months or until you receive an Invitation to Apply (ITA), whichever is sooner.  Some PNP programs may require a separate application. You can find more information on the application process for these programs in our Provincial Nominee Program series. Respond to the Invitation to Apply (ITA) Depending on the immigration program you apply to, you’ll typically have 30 to 60 days to respond once you receive an ITA. At this time, you’ll be asked to provide documentation to support the information you provided in your profile. Some of this paperwork can take time to source, so we recommend gathering these essential documents well in advance.  Proof of settlement funds: You’ll require bank statements and letters from your financial institution to prove you have sufficient funds to cover living expenses for your first few months in Canada. Police certification: Your local police authorities will need to certify that you don’t have a criminal background in your country. Work experience letters: Depending on your professional history, you may be required to submit letters from your past and current employers verifying your employment history, including the dates of your employment, working hours, job title and responsibilities, and salary. Birth and marriage certificates: If you’re applying for PR as a family. Job offer letter: If you already secured a job offer in Canada. Medical exam: You’re only required to take a medical test if you receive communication from the IRCC or province asking you to do so.  Wait for your PR application to be processed How long does it take for your PR to be processed? The processing time for permanent residence applications varies based on the program you apply under. In most cases, it takes at least six months, but due to ongoing COVID-19 related delays, there’s a significant backlog and you may have to wait over a year to get your Confirmation of Permanent Residence (COPR). However, there are some things you can work on while you wait to make your transition into life in Canada easier. Prepare for the Canadian job market  Finding your first job in Canada takes time. Use this extra time to prepare for your job search. Explore the job market in the city you’re planning to settle in and look at job descriptions posted for employment opportunities in your field. You can also start building a professional network in Canada through LinkedIn, virtual coffee chats, and online networking events.  Before you start applying to jobs, create a Canadian-style resume and cover letter and customize it for each role. Since most companies now conduct interviews remotely, you should also start interview preparation, so you’re ready to start actively applying for jobs as soon as you get your COPR. Work on your language skills English and French are the two official languages in Canada, although English is more common everywhere except Quebec. If you need to work on your communication skills, this wait period is the perfect opportunity to sign up for language classes or practice at home. Research the basics of living in Canada Life in Canada may be very different from what you’re used to back home. As part of your preparation, be sure to research the types of accommodation available in Canada and use Arrive’s monthly expenses calculator to estimate the cost of living in your target city. Find out about provincial health coverage, the process of getting a driver’s licence, the public transportation system, and, if you have children, the school system in your future province. Familiarize yourself with the financial system, including the role of credit scores, and research banking options that are best-suited to your situation.  Many newcomers also experience culture shock when they first arrive in Canada, so spend some time learning about cultural differences you can expect and connect with any friends and family in Canada to learn from their experiences. Prepare to move to Canada Get your visa stamped Once you receive your COPR, you’re all set to prepare for your move. The first step is to submit your passport for a visa stamp and give your biometrics at the authorized agency in your country. The communication you receive from IRCC along with your COPR will have detailed instructions on these steps. Get ready to travel With your visa and COPR in hand, you’re ready to book your flight tickets to Canada. Since it usually takes some time to find long-term rental accommodation, most newcomers book temporary accommodation, such as a hotel, B&B, or hostel for their first few weeks.  Next, you’ll need to start packing the belongings you intend to bring with you. As you do that, you can also fill out the personal effects documentation, or forms B4 and B4A (BSF186 and BSF186A), which you’ll need to present to border officials at your port of entry. While you only need these forms at the airport, it’s much easier to fill them out as you pack. You may also have belongings you won’t bring with you to Canada, such as your furniture, vehicle, large electronics, and other items. If you intend to sell these goods before you leave, make sure you allocate enough time to do so. Start applying to jobs in Canada Now that you have a landing date planned, it’s time to start actively applying for jobs. Keep in mind you’re only allowed to start working for a Canadian employer after you receive your PR, but if your initial interviews go well, you can always explain your situation to the employer and negotiate a joining date that’s after you land. Get your documents in order In addition to the documents you submitted along with your PR application, you’ll also need the following during your travel or for your life in Canada: Driver’s licence and extract: If you have prior driving experience in your country, getting a driver’s licence extract from your local authority can help you get a full Canadian licence faster.  Travel insurance: In some provinces, the provincial health coverage has a wait period and you’ll need travel insurance to cover you during that time. Medical records, prescriptions, and any ongoing medication References from past employers  Quarantine plan: If you’re travelling to Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, you also need a quarantine plan for your first few weeks after you land. At present, fully-vaccinated travellers are exempt from the mandatory quarantine, but the final decision is up to officials at your port of entry. Passport and tickets Start the process to open a Canadian bank account A Canadian bank account will be foundational for your financial success in Canada. You’ll need access to your funds during your first few weeks in Canada, so, if possible, you should start the process of opening a bank account before you arrive. Some financial institutions, like RBC, allow you to start the bank account opening process virtually from your home country.  Once you’re in Canada, you can visit your local bank branch or set up a virtual appointment to open your account. You’ll also need to apply for a credit card, so you can start building your credit history in Canada. Prepare for your first few days in Canada  There are several things you’ll need to get done in your first few days in Canada and, with a little advance preparation, you can arrive all set to accomplish everything on your list.  Bring some Canadian currency, ideally in small bills, to cover your expenses until you get a debit or credit card. If you arrive in the winter, pack some warm winter clothes in your carry-on luggage (winter temperatures in Canada are often below freezing!).  Look at public transit maps in your city and make note of the bus stops or subway stations close to your temporary accommodation.  Carry a travel adapter for your electronics (standard voltage in Canada is 120 V).  Buy an international calling card or purchase a Canadian SIM card online and have it delivered to your temporary address. Note: you may be able to purchase a Canadian SIM card upon arrival at certain airports in Canada. Many newcomers from across the world come to Canada with the goal of working and settling here. If you’re exploring immigration pathways to Canada, this moving to Canada checklist will provide you with the information you need to choose a suitable immigration program, apply for permanent residence, and plan your move to Canada. Original article located here, published by Arrive. About Arrive Arrive is powered by RBC Ventures Inc, a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada. In collaboration with RBC, Arrive is dedicated to helping newcomers achieve their life, career, and financial goals in Canada. An important part of establishing your financial life in Canada is finding the right partner to invest in your financial success. RBC is the largest bank in Canada* and here to be your partner in all of your financial needs. RBC supports Arrive, and with a 150-year commitment to newcomer success in Canada, RBC goes the extra mile in support and funding to ensure that the Arrive newcomer platform is FREE to all.

The Rise and Fall of Cryptocurrency—Again

2021 saw a meteoric rise in the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In addition, a reported 16% of Americans say they have invested in, traded or used cryptocurrency. But over the last two months, the value has dropped significantly. In September, El Salvador made Bitcoin a legal tender in the country and lost more than 20% of its investment in the four months since, resulting in the International Monetary Fund asking the country to stop its embrace of the currency. We have seen this song and dance before with cryptocurrency values dramatically rising and falling, but where do we go from here?  According to Villanova University's John Sedunov, PhD, an associate professor of finance, people might have invested in crypto as a hedge against rising inflation in the last year because there weren't alternatives to the stock market, which itself has seen its fair share of volatility. If that trend continues and inflation concerns aren't erased, more Americans could invest in crypto.  As crypto continues to work its way into the everyday vernacular, there could be an interesting player to help bring it more mainstream: traditional banks. Recently, JPMorgan announced a $12 billion investment into technology. JPMorgan, which has already launched one of its own digital coins, is ahead of the competition.  "I think if anything is going to lead the way, as backwards as it is, it will be the traditional banks, specifically JPMorgan," Dr. Sedunov said.  "Their reputation will bring competitors to market, allowing for the potential to become more mainstream." One of the key things, Dr. Sedunov notes, is that there needs to be wide knowledge and understanding about how cryptocurrency, and the blockchain where it's stored, actually works.  "Until it's easier to understand and explain and becomes common knowledge, it's going to be a rough ride. It has to get to the point where the utility and ease of use is not trivial. It's very easy to buy it, but to spend or move it, it's a painful process to avoid fees. It has to be easier to access."

Canadian finances 101: What you should know as a newcomer

Canada’s financial ecosystem is made up of banks, credit unions, trusts, and other financial and insurance companies and it is considered to be one of the most sound and safest in the world. According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2019, published by the World Economic Forum, Canada ranked 9th globally for its financial system, showcasing stability and reliability. As you plan your move, familiarizing yourself with the Canadian banking and financial landscape can help provide context to key tasks like opening bank accounts, building credit history, borrowing money, and filing taxes. In this article: Types of financial institutions in Canada Getting started with taxes: The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada: A credit-based economy Banking, investments, and money transfers What are the types of financial institutions in Canada? Financial institutions in Canada can be classified into three main categories: 1. Banking institutions These are places where you can deposit, withdraw and borrow money. Examples of such institutions include banks, online-only banks, credit unions, trust companies, mortgage companies, etc. Banks A bank is licensed to receive deposits and make loans. Most banks are managed by the national government. The five largest banks in Canada are often referred to as the “big five” in banking. They are: Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank), Bank of Montreal (BMO), and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC). Sometimes, you may hear the term “big six,” including the National Bank of Canada – although, note that its operations are primarily focused in the provinces of Quebec and New Brunswick. Digital-only banks In addition to these banks, there are a few digital-only banks, such as Tangerine (a subsidiary of Scotiabank), Simplii Financial (a subsidiary of CIBC), and EQ Bank. They provide all services online only and do not have any physical branches. Credit unions A credit union is a smaller financial institution that is owned by its members, who are also typically account holders. They operate under provincial legislation and regulations and provide similar services as banks. The main difference between a credit union and a bank is their structure; credit unions are owned by anyone with money in the credit union. The operations are supervised by a democratically elected board of directors made up of local community members. Due to their scale of operations, note that credit unions may have fewer branches and ATMs than a big bank would. Tip: As a newcomer to Canada, you can choose any financial institution of your choice. However, it is helpful to know that the big five banks (like RBC) have newcomer banking packages that specifically cater to permanent residents and international students and are thus better positioned to assist you in your unique situation. Trust companies Trust companies are legal entities similar to banks that act as an agent (on behalf of a person or business) for the purpose of administration, management and the eventual transfer of assets to a party. Mortgage companies Money lending entities such as mortgage finance companies (MFCs) and mortgage investment corporations (MICs) provide real estate financing. MFCs are non-depository financial institutions that underwrite and administer mortgages sourced through brokers. Their lending is funded mainly through securitization or direct sales to third parties, primarily the big six banks. MICs and other private investors typically deal in uninsured, customized mortgage products that are not available through traditional channels. These products include non-prime loans, second mortgages and very short-term mortgages. Key financial authority: The Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada is the nation’s central bank. Its principal role is to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada. The Bank influences the supply of money circulating in the economy, using its monetary policy framework to keep inflation low and stable. It promotes safe, sound and efficient financial systems, within Canada and internationally, and conducts transactions in financial markets in support of these objectives. Additionally, the Bank of Canada also designs, issues and distributes Canada’s bank notes and acts as the “fiscal agent” for the government of Canada, managing its public debt programs and foreign exchange reserves. It also sets the interest rates in Canada. 2. Insurance companies These are entities that sell insurance to cover the risk of loss in various situations, caused due to a variety of factors. They include homeowner or renter’s insurance, health insurance, car insurance, life insurance, and more. They compensate you for any loss that’s covered by your insurance policy. Once you purchase a specific type of insurance, you are required to make periodic payments, called premiums, to the insurance company to avail of the agreed-upon coverage. 3. Investment companies These are organizations that focus on investing, administering or managing funds or money on behalf of other persons. Examples of such companies are investment banks, hedge funds, underwriters, and brokerage firms. Note: There might be an overlap in the services provided by financial institutions. For instance, a leading bank like RBC offers banking services, mortgages, a wide variety of insurance options, investment solutions, and more. Tip: Beware of predatory lenders offering payday, instalment, and other types of loans with very high interest rates. These lenders often prey upon people who need cash quickly and who have run out of all other options. They usually have exorbitant interest rates, confusing and misleading representations, and a lack of transparency and documentation. Therefore, always double-check money lending claims that seem too good to be true. Note that payday loans are provincially regulated while instalment loans are unregulated. What this means is – while interest rates cannot exceed 60 per cent, lenders are effectively free to change terms and add fees and other charges almost at will. Getting started with taxes: The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) The CRA administers tax laws for the Government of Canada and for most provinces and territories. It administers various social and economic benefit and incentive programs delivered through the tax system. The CRA website is the go-to place for everything related to your taxes: filing annual tax returns, checking receipt of Government benefits and subsidies, viewing tax documents, etc. Important: To register for CRA’s “My Account,” you must have filed a tax return for the current or a previous year. Download Arrive’s free tax guide for newcomers for insights on how to file your taxes and to make sure you’re prepared to manage the expectations that come with paying taxes in Canada. Note: Beware of a long-running CRA scam with callers posing as representatives of the CRA. The CRA will never use threatening language nor ask for information about your passport, health card, driver’s license, or demand immediate payment by Interac e-transfer, bitcoin, prepaid credit cards or gift cards from retailers such as iTunes, Amazon. Canada: A credit-based economy North American countries such as the U.S. and Canada are known to be credit-based economies. This essentially means that most people use their credit cards (instead of debit cards or using cash) to make purchases and then repay the entire amount owed either at the end of their credit card billing cycle or in installments. You will need to build your own credit history, since this is essential to many aspects of life in Canada. Once you receive your first credit card, start by making payments for small expenses such as phone bills or groceries, and be sure you pay the balance in full by the end of the billing cycle. Tip: Keep in mind that credit cards have limits and do not offer free money. They can carry very high-interest rates, so your balance should be managed and paid down promptly – this will help you maintain a good credit rating. A credit score is a way for financial institutions to measure your ability to repay loans. Some scenarios where you may be asked for a credit report are while renting accommodation, applying to certain jobs, and obtaining mortgages or other loans from the bank. Additional resources Download Arrive’s free Credit guide to learn more about credit cards, credit scores, and credit ratings in Canada. For tips on staying debt-free and building your credit history in Canada, read How to build a good credit score from scratch as a newcomer. Banking, investments, and money transfers in Canada Banking Like many other countries, in Canada, you can conduct all your banking and money transfer transactions by walking into a branch or online, through internet banking. See How to open a bank account in Canada as a newcomer to know the process of opening a newcomer account. The article will also provide tips and resources to help you learn more about credit and direct deposits. Investments There are many financial products available to save and invest your money in Canada. They can be broadly classified into savings accounts, registered savings plans and investment products. Depending on your goals and your appetite for risk, you can choose one or a combination of several of these. Read Savings and investments for newcomers in Canada for deeper insights into all available investment products. Money transfers For domestic peer-to-peer payments (think: sending money to a friend, relative, co-worker, or acquaintance in Canada), there are a couple of ways to send and receive money online: Interac and Paypal. Interac is a bank-based tool, while Paypal is a non-bank, third party service. Among these, Interac e-transfers are the most popular and widely used form of peer-to-peer payments in Canada. You can send money overseas through online or mobile banking, by telephone, by email, or in-person. Banks like RBC have a simplified, affordable, and convenient process for international money transfer through online banking. If you have the recipient’s banking information handy, all it takes is a few clicks! Some popular options for international remittances are: Banks Credit unions Money transfer operators like Western Union, MoneyGram, WorldRemit, etc. Peer-to-peer transfer providers such as Transferwise (now, Wise), CurrencyFair, Paypal, etc. Currency exchange businesses When sending money overseas, the Canadian federal government tracks large sums (over $10,000 CAD) through Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) to prevent money-laundering, terrorism funding, and related crimes. Understanding financial products and regulatory agencies in Canada can make you feel overwhelmed. Start with the basics so you can build awareness and a strong foundation to manage your finances in Canada. Original article located here, published by Arrive.

Is This Bitcoin's Time to Shine?

Bitcoin was invented in 2008 and launched in 2009, but after years of skepticism, it's finally becoming a part of mainstream conversation. The cryptocurrency's value has continued to rise since 2017, but with the start of 2021, its price has surged and many more companies are looking for ways to get involved. Tesla and Square have invested. (You can even buy a Tesla with bitcoins.) Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are exploring ways to meet customer demand for cryptocurrency investment. A National Football League player converted half of his salary into bitcoins. And Major League Baseball's Oakland Athletics are offering a suite for the 2021 season at the price of one bitcoin. So, if it's been around for so long, why are we only seeing this mainstream push now? "I think the Bitcoin ecosystem is developing to the point where people can start to think about using it as a currency," said John Sedunov, PhD, an associate professor of finance who studies Bitcoin. "However, the price still remains volatile, and it isn't clear that the currency can maintain its current $50,00-to-60,000 value." While there are companies adopting and investing now, this will still be a gradual process, Dr. Sedunov says. "As businesses become better able to accept the currency, and perhaps more importantly better able to withstand and manage the volatility of Bitcoin, then the currency will become more widespread in its use. The process would be expedited if the entire supply chain accepted Bitcoin, rather than just the retailer and the end of the chain. This would smooth the process and allow people to utilize the currency without as much concern for converting it." Additionally, Dr. Sedunov notes that there needs to be a continued evolution of the ability of firms to accept and manage the currency, in addition to a reduction in the volatility of the currency. Smaller businesses may be at much more of a risk than large corporations and banks if there is price instability. But the value of Bitcoin won't be this high forever. As the country and economy continue to deal with the impact of the pandemic, there are growing concerns that inflation could be next, pushing consumers to other options, like cryptocurrency. "When the pandemic ends and there is, perhaps, more economic stability, Bitcoin's value will wane a bit, but I don't think it will fade to nothing," Sedunov notes. "The big question mark, to me, is the U.S. Dollar and inflation. Inflation expectations are rising, and this only pushes people more toward alternatives. If this trend continues, then perhaps economic stability will be a bit lower, and more people will flock toward Bitcoin."

What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?

What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.

What are IDC's Tech Insights on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian Market?

Dear Member of the IDC Canada Community, As we all adapt to this ever changing environment, our Canadian team has been working behind the scenes analyzing the COVID-19 impact on the Canadian ICT market. This email provides you with tech insights, including updates on market outlook and further resources to help you make critical business decisions in the weeks and months ahead. Canadian Total IT Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down from 2.4% to -5.0% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Research Scenario The coronavirus outbreak across the world and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially affect the Canadian IT markets, severely accelerating the impact already felt from the supply-driven effects from Asia. In this extremely fluid scenario, International Data Corporation (IDC) now expects to see a significant slowdown in technology spending in 2020 across Canadian organizations, with IT spending expected to decline by -5.0%. As recently as December 2019, we were projecting a positive 2.4% growth rate for 2020. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for Q2 and Q3. "Technology vendors and buyers are rapidly adapting to the disruption and the extremely fast-moving market conditions," said Nigel Wallis , Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian IT market fully. However, given the sharp economic contraction, IDC recommends that all technology leaders recalibrate their strategies."  IDC Canada has developed three scenarios to help technology providers and buyers with their short-term business and technology investment planning. "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3. Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4," said Tony Olvet , GVP Research, at IDC Canada. A Probable Scenario Depicting a Decline In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian IT spending to decline by -5.0% in constant currency terms this year, down from the 2.4% forecast published at the end of 2019. "When taking a broad historical view of Canadian IT spending across the past decade, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis is expected to exceed the levels of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. As such, it does represent the most significant deceleration in IT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time," said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. As restrictions of movement bite, supply-chain disruption becomes commonplace, and demand drops, Canadian IT spending will drop rapidly in Q2. Particularly manufacturing, personal and consumer services, transportation, and hospitality will be sharply curbed, as these industries are the most exposed to the COVID-19 crisis impact in the short-, mid-, and long-term view. At the same time, other sectors, such as healthcare and government, will be forced to accelerate investments significantly. IDC expects this will drive additional IT investments for the public sector, pushing hard on infrastructure and collaboration tools deployments, but not before the second half of 2020." In the most pessimistic scenario, IDC expects ICT spending to drop and record a –8.2% decline in 2020, with all technology domains showing negative trends for the remaining part of the year. A series of domino effects, including oil price changes, currency depreciation, the inability of governments to make timely payments, delays in the supply chains and significant lay-offs would lead to a much more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market and an exponential increase in the downside risk in IDC's market forecast assumptions. The new outlook is shaped primarily by lower expectations in the hardware and services markets: Hardware markets will suffer due to restriction measures hampering supply and overall reduced demand. Client Devices are particularly hit hard, initially because of supply constraints and in later quarters as reduced demand further erode growth. The most significant impact on the IT services industry will be a result of businesses postponing decisions on pending projects and slowing the execution of projects in the delivery phase. Spending reductions on the software and telecoms markets are less pronounced, and some positive factors are expected to moderate the natural downturn somewhat. While the decrease in hardware spending will also negatively impact the overall software market to a degree, difficulties prompted by COVID-19 across industries will impact total telecommunication spending (this will be examined in forthcoming IDC Canada research). At the same time, the increasing need for remote collaboration will push telecom services demand and drive new opportunities in the collaborative applications and platforms areas, as well as an increase in security technologies that enable them. The pre-existing digital maturity of industries will also be a factor impacting on their capacity to invest in technologies, regardless of their budget capabilities. Limited face-to-face business relationships between vendors and end-users will inevitably also reduce investment in significant digital transformation projects in less mature industries, and especially for projects involving more advanced technologies. Social distancing and provincial lock downs (the duration is hard to predict) will also have significant consequences on the purchasing options for many consumers. Additional factors weighing on investment will range from a decrease in customer demand to supply chains breaking up," said Meng Cong , Manager, Market Insights & Analytics at IDC Canada. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow. In use cases such as patient care as well as customer, citizen, student or employee experience and proximity, we expect to see accelerated adoption of digital solutions. Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." Register for our Complimentary Webcast Now On-Demand IDC's Canadian team is closely monitoring the evolution of the ICT market and its reaction to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios. If you are interested in knowing more about this, please register for the IDC Canada Complimentary Webcast COVID-19 Impact in the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.