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New National UMass Amherst Poll Finds President Trump’s Job Approval Gap Slides 6 Points Since April

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll Public approval of Donald Trump’s presidency has dropped by 6 percentage points since April and his approval rating is now 20 points underwater, 38-58, according to a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents conducted July 25-30. “Six months into his second term as president, Donald Trump looks to be on the ropes with the American public,” says Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Trump’s approval ratings, already historically low for a newly elected president, continue to sink with close to 6-in-10 Americans (58%) expressing disapproval of the job that Trump is doing in office. While Trump remains a popular figure among Republicans and conservatives, Trump’s time in office is viewed more negatively across genders, generations, classes and races, with majorities of each of these groups disapproving of Trump’s performance. With over three years left in the Trump administration, there is still time for him to right the ship and fulfil the promises that catapulted him to the presidency, but the president is not off to the start he or his supporters envisioned.” In the previous UMass Poll, conducted as Trump approached the three-month anniversary of his return to the White House, Trump held a 44-51 approval rating, buoyed by a positive overall approval on his handling of immigration. The new poll, however, has found a significant shift in views on this issue. “Immigration has been central Trump’s political campaigns and his strongest issue in his first few months in office, but the percentage of people who say he is handling it well has dropped substantially from 50% four months ago to just 41% today, a 9-point drop,” explains Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Trump came into the presidency promising change, and he’s made significant alterations in many areas of federal policy,” says Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “He came into office believing that he had limited time to make the changes he promised his most ardent supporters, and moved with unparalleled speed to enact these changes, including sometimes by legally questionable means. Now, it seems, he’s reaping the consequences as a large majority of Americans don’t like these changes. Clear majorities say that Trump has handled his key issues – immigration (54%), inflation (63%), jobs (55%) and tariffs (63%) – not very well or not well at all. With so many Americans grading his handling of public policy poorly, it’s no wonder they disapprove of his presidency.” Rhodes also notes that the president is seeing an erosion in support from one of his most reliable groups of supporters: men. “Trump has cultivated a ‘masculine’ reputation and sought to build support among American men but, strikingly, we find that support for Trump has deteriorated most substantially among members of this group,” says Rhodes. “In April, Trump enjoyed approval from 48% of men, compared with 39% of women. Now, only 39% of men express approval of Trump, compared with 35% of women. “In addition to losing support among men, Trump has seen approval for his presidency crumble among political independents, a critical swing constituency,” Rhodes adds. “While 31% of independents approved of his presidency in April, that number is now down 10 percentage points to 21%. This is really bad news for Trump, and for Republicans who depend on support from independents in close elections.” “Polarization has changed the interpretation of presidential approval ratings,” says Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Partisans just aren’t willing to evaluate presidents from the other side positively and are reluctant to say negative things about presidents from their own party. So, approval numbers fluctuate within a narrower range. Gone are the days when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush both achieved approval numbers over 90%. This is certainly true for Trump, who is likely the most polarizing figure in modern American politics. Even in this polarized environment, though, Trump’s approval ratings are low by any standard – he is very close to the practical floor. Especially noteworthy is that nearly half of Americans say they strongly disapprove of Trump and the percentage of Americans who say they strongly approve of Trump has decreased substantially. Even among Republican respondents, only half strongly approve of the president. The GOP should be concerned about these numbers heading into the odd-year elections in 2025 and, especially, the midterm elections in 2026. It is very difficult for a party to win when its leader is this unpopular.” Americans’ views on Epstein and Trump Of all issues surveyed in the latest University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll, one appears to be the greatest drag on Trump’s presidency: Jeffrey Epstein and Trump’s handling of the evidence gathered in the federal investigation of the accused sex-trafficker and his long-time friend. “The Epstein scandal remains a serious vulnerability – indeed, quite possibly, the most serious vulnerability – for Trump right now,” Rhodes says. “Fully 70% of Americans believe he has handled this issue ‘not too well’ or ‘not well at all,’ and nearly two-thirds (63%) believe his administration is hiding information about Epstein. The Epstein scandal is also likely undermining public confidence in Trump more broadly. Indeed, we find that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe that Trump is corrupt and nearly 70% believe he is dishonest. Critically, these numbers mean that many Republicans and conservatives are disappointed with Trump’s handling of the Epstein situation. Republican frustration with Trump’s handling of the Epstein case could erode enthusiasm for his presidency and for Republicans in 2026.” “If Trump and those around him have been wishing the Jeffrey Epstein story would disappear, their wishes have not been granted,” Theodoridis says. “Most Americans (77%) tell us they have heard a lot or some about the Epstein case. In addition to believing that the Trump administration is hiding important Epstein case information, the vast majority of respondents say that a special prosecutor should be appointed to investigate the Trump DOJ’s handling of the Epstein case (59%), that Donald Trump was good friends with Epstein (67%), and that a list of Epstein’s clients exists (70%). Even substantial numbers of Trump voters believe these things. And, when it comes to an Epstein ‘cover-up,’ it seems the buck stops with Trump himself. While a lot of Americans blame Attorney General Pam Bondi (59%), FBI Director Kash Patel (49%), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (47%) for hiding information about the Epstein case, a whopping 81% blame President Trump.” “The controversy over the handling of the Epstein files by the Trump administration has – interestingly – brought Americans together,” Nteta adds. “While on most issues, we see clear and persistent generational, class and racial divisions; on Epstein, Americans across these divides speak with one voice. This controversy has even resulted in agreement across partisan lines as majorities of Democrats and Republicans support a special prosecutor and believe a list of clients exists, and disapproval of Trump’s handling of the whole matter is surprisingly seen among members of Trump’s base, as 43% of Republicans and conservatives indicate that Trump has not handled this issue well.” “Where Trump faces his poorest rating in our poll is on perceived corruption and dishonesty,” adds La Raja. “A clear plurality (49%) sees Trump as ‘very dishonest,’ with an additional 20% saying that he is ‘somewhat dishonest.’ And 45% see him as ‘very corrupt,’ with an additional 20% as ‘somewhat corrupt.’ Only about one-third reject those labels entirely. Trump also gets low ratings on transparency – a majority (52%) say Trump is not at all transparent, his weakest score after dishonesty. Only 23% believe that he’s very transparent. For a candidate who brands himself as a truth-teller and disruptor, this appears to be a credibility gap.” “Strength is Trump’s strongest attribute,” La Raja explains. “Fifty-eight percent see him as very or somewhat strong, indicating appeal among his base and possibly swing voters who value ‘toughness.’ However, views on his competence are split evenly, with 52% saying he’s competent to some degree, while 48% say not at all.” Voter Regret? “Since President Trump took office, a number of reports of regretful Trump voters have been covered in the nation’s leading media outlets,” Nteta says. “From voters upset with Trump’s immigration policies to supporters who take issue with the president’s unwillingness to release the files associated with the Epstein case, there seemed to be a wellspring of regret among Trump’s once loyal base. Our results suggest that while there are, in fact, areas where the president is weak, most notably on his handling of the economy and the Epstein controversy. When asked directly, close to 9-in-10 (86%) would vote for Trump again if given the opportunity to revisit their 2024 presidential vote choice. These results indicate that the number of regretful voters covered in the mainstream press may be overblown, as the overwhelming majority of Trump voters remain in the president’s camp.” “Only 1% of Trump voters say they regret their vote and would choose differently, 2% say they ‘might’ choose differently and 3% say they wish they hadn’t voted at all,” Theodoridis says. “When we simply ask voters how they would vote if they could go back and recast their ballot, 6% of Trump voters tell us they would vote for Harris, while only 2% of Harris voters say they would switch to Trump. There is clearly more erosion in support among Trump voters than among Harris voters and, in what is likely small consolation to Harris and her campaign team, significantly more 2024 non-voters who say they wish they had voted indicate they would now cast a vote for the former vice president. In a relatively close election, shifts of these magnitudes might have been decisive, but there are no ‘take-backs’ in electoral politics, so these numbers are best used to inform choices going forward.” “Our results are not wholly positive for President Trump, and there exist areas of concern for his team moving forward,” Nteta warns. “Since April, the number of Trump voters expressing strong confidence in their vote for Trump has declined by 5 percentage points. Additionally, we find small increases in the number of Trump supporters who have mixed feelings about their vote and who indicate that they would ‘rather not have voted.’ Finally, 14% of Trump voters indicate that they would not vote for Trump if given the chance to revisit, while only 8% of Harris voters express a similar sentiment. Time will tell whether the growing number of disaffected Trump voters are the canaries in the coal mine, indicating a larger problem among the Trump coalition and the MAGA movement more generally.” “We do find a meaningful percentage – 31% – of Trump voters unwilling to say they feel very confident they made the right choice,” Theodoridis adds. “Nineteen percent of Trump voters tell us they are still confident but have concerns, and 6% tell us they have mixed feelings about their vote. Given what we know about the psychological predispositions against admitting to having been wrong, these numbers suggest some softening in support for Trump among the very voters who returned him to the White House last November. This should certainly be alarming for Republican politicians. However, for Democrats or journalists looking for a mass mea culpa from Trump voters, our numbers are, perhaps, sobering.” Methodology This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents nationally was conducted by YouGov July 25-30. YouGov interviewed 1,057 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) one-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 and 2024 presidential vote choice as ranked on gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight. The demographic marginals and their interlockings were based on the sample frame. The marginal distribution of 2020 presidential vote choice and its demographic interlockings were based on a politically representative “modeled frame” of US adults, using the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote. The marginal distribution of 2024 vote choice was based on official ballot counts compiled by the University of Florida Election Labs and CNN. Demographic interlockings for 2024 vote choice were based on CNN’s 2024 Exit Polls. The margin of error of this poll is 3.5%. Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

Inflation: It’s Not Just for Prices Anymore

Lately, headlines are full of talk about inflation — a response to the economy and the looming tariffs. I’ve experienced many inflationary periods, but it feels different in retirement. When I was earning a paycheque, inflation was just an annoyance, something I needed to pay attention to and maybe buy a cheaper cut of steak. Now, as someone on a “fixed income,” it feels like a real threat. Recently, Ben McCabe, CEO of Bloom Financial, appeared on Breakfast Television and delivered a truth bomb: “We’re approaching a perfect storm. Longer life expectancy, fewer defined benefit pensions, and rising inflation.”  Well, that storm has arrived — and it’s inflating more than just prices. It’s also expanding our waistlines, prescription lists, and emotional baggage. Inflation, at its core, means “the condition of being inflated.” And it turns out that definition applies to more than the grocery bill. So, grab a cup of green tea (or a celery stick if you’re feeling virtuous). Let’s explore the three sneaky forms of inflation threatening your retirement — and what you can do about them. This blog will appeal to individuals who have retired or aspire to retire in the future. Let’s light this candle! 1. Financial Inflation: The Usual Suspect Let’s start with the obvious: inflation means your money won’t stretch as far as it used to. In 2022, Canada’s Consumer Price Index increased by 6.8% — the highest rise in 40 years. Although it slowed down a bit in 2023, essentials such as food, rent, and fuel continue to grow. Your retirement income might be fixed, but prices definitely aren’t. Retirement Risks from Financial Inflation: • Longer lives mean longer bills. A 65-year-old woman today has a 50% chance of living past 90 years old. That’s over 25 years of expenses. • Vanishing pensions. Defined benefit pensions are disappearing faster than good manners on Twitter. • Healthcare creep. Public healthcare doesn’t cover everything, especially if you want care that wasn’t designed in 1978. As Ben McCabe aptly put it:  “We need to stay healthy so our health span matches our lifespan,” huh?— “otherwise, inflation will affect us through the cost of medications, home care, and long-term care facilities.” What You Can Do: • Review your income sources. Prioritize indexed income sources, such as CPP, OAS, and annuities with COLA (Cost of Living Adjustment) riders. • Use home equity sensibly. If you’re house-rich but cash-poor, consider a reverse mortgage or other equity release products. • Adjust your spending habits. Host themed nights, like “Tuna Tuesdays” — a nostalgic, fun, and budget-friendly option. How to Support Others: • Discuss money matters with kindness. Many retirees feel ashamed of their finances. Show compassion, listen more, talk less. • Bring food, not judgment. A regular Saturday brunch with Sadie can make a significant difference, not just financially. • Foster social connections. Financial stress can cause isolation. Encourage hosting potlucks, card nights, or joining a community group. 2. Physical Inflation: The Expanding Middle Retirement brings more free time… and more room. Waistlines, cholesterol, and prescriptions all seem to rise in tandem. Signs you’re experiencing physical inflation: • Pants that used to be snug are now aspirational • Your Fitbit died months ago — and so did your motivation • Your pharmacy knows you by name... and birthday The bad news? Poor physical health is expensive. Chronic illness can deplete savings faster than a grandchild with your credit card. What You Can Do: • Keep moving. Walk, garden, spin — whatever gets you vertical and vibrant. • Lift weights. Muscle mass starts declining at 40. Resistance training isn’t just for 20-somethings. Strong is the new sexy, pass it on! • Meal plan smart. Grocery inflation peaked at 8.9% — eat better, waste less, save more. Consider shopping daily and buying only the amount of food needed for that day. Your health span should align with your lifespan. Stay strong, stay mobile, and yes, stretching counts — but not if you’re reaching for the TV remote. Inflammation — The Silent Saboteur If inflation is bad, inflammation is worse. Chronic inflammation contributes to: • Heart disease and stroke • Type 2 diabetes • Alzheimer’s disease and brain fog • Arthritis, osteoporosis, and varicose veins • Mood disorders such as anxiety and depression • Certain Cancers Even CNN and Al Jazeera recently reported that Donald Trump was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency (CVI) — a common, often overlooked condition among those over 55. Small veins, big problem. (Insert your own “tiny vein, tiny…” joke — I’m staying classy.) Inflammation is the unwelcome guest that never departs. If inflammation had a personality, it would be the dinner guest who drinks all your wine, insults your cat, and brings up politics at dessert. Whether it's fueling joint pain, causing swelling in your ankles, or messing with your metabolism, chronic inflammation is one of the biggest saboteurs of aging gracefully. It often hides in plain sight, presenting itself as: • Low-grade fatigue • Weight gain (especially belly fat) • Mood swings or brain fog • Increased pain and stiffness • Slow healing. What You Can Do: • Eat anti-inflammatory foods, such as leafy greens, whole grains, and healthy fats. Cut out the sugar. • Move each day. Yes, again. It’s that important. • Lower stress to improve sleep. Stress and poor sleep fuel inflammation. • Maintain social and emotional bonds. Loneliness and inflammation are frequently connected — break the link. De-Inflation — The Great Slowdown • So, we’ve discussed inflation... but what about its quieter, sneakier cousin: deflation? • No, not the economic kind. We’re talking about the physical “poof” that occurs when we reach our late 70s and 80s — when the padding diminishes, posture declines, and everything else… well, just seems a little less buoyant. • Suddenly, you’re shrinking. Your weight drops — but not in a sexy, "I’ve been intermittent fasting" kind of way. More like "my pants are falling down and my doctor says I’m 2 inches shorter" sort of vibe. Welcome to the gravitational pull of aging. Signs of De-Inflation: • Pants fit strangely, but not in a bragging way • You’re hunched over as if you’re forever bowing to the Queen • Your arms and legs have that crepey, crinkly look — like tissue paper with a gym membership • And let’s not forget the wrinkles on your face — a stunning topographical map of your life Let’s be honest: gravity always wins. Biology always wins. And yes, our skin thins — insert your own joke about being “thin-skinned” here. But we are not entirely powerless. Here’s How to Push Back (Gently — you don’t want to break a hip): • Check your posture monthly. Have a friend take a quick side photo. Are you upright and confident — or resembling a question mark? • Stretch regularly. Yoga, fascia stretching, and massage can help combat the hunch. • Move intentionally. Gentle strength training and balance exercises can maintain muscle and stability. • Moisturize and hydrate. For your skin, your joints, and your soul. • Celebrate your lines. They’re not “flaws” — they’re proof you’ve felt joy, sorrow, surprise, and a few good martinis. They’re not signs of aging; they’re signs you’ve been living. Remember: frowning only causes more wrinkles. So, smile — or better yet, laugh. Loudly. Often. Preferably at inappropriate moments. Oh — and take my advice on this: never (and I mean never) open your eyes during downward-facing dog. Some things just can’t be unseen. 3. Emotional Inflation: When Grudges Accumulate Like Interest Here’s the sneaky one. Emotional inflation appears as: • Bitterness over who got what in Mom’s will • Inflated egos and “right-titis” (a chronic need to be right) • Replaying 1983 arguments in your head like they’re Oscar contenders. • Giving not-so-nice nicknames to your former coworkers (and using them… publicly) • Keeping a mental spreadsheet of injustices — now colour-coded for quick reference (who says seniors are not tech-savvy?) Here’s the thing: emotional inflation isn’t just about what others have done. It’s also about how we interpret our role in those stories. Ready for a bold idea that can free you from decades of emotional baggage? What if we stopped keeping score and instead focused on how we want to show up in our relationships? What if you chose, intentionally, to be a generous sister, a supportive friend, a gracious parent, or a collaborative co-worker — not because they "deserve it," but because that's who you want to be? It’s not easy. It may require deep breathing and the occasional muttering in the car. However, for those willing, this mental reframe can be a total game-changer. What to do: • Let go. You can’t carry joy and a grudge at the same time — and joy is lighter. Lighten the emotional load. You don’t need to wait for someone to say sorry to feel free. • Choose your character. Think of it as casting yourself in the movie of your life. Be the wise one, the peacemaker, the person who breaks the cycle, not the one still angry about a forgotten birthday in 1996. • Write your own story. Present yourself as the person you want to be, even if others haven’t read the same script. You can’t control other people, but you can control how much space they occupy in your mind (especially if they’re not even paying for snacks). • Reframe your perspective. Instead of keeping score, focus on who you want to be: a generous sibling, a gracious friend, or a person at peace. Let go of the scorekeeping. It rarely results in a tie, and even if you win… You still feel empty. • Define your role. Be the big-hearted sibling, the calm presence, the one who lets go, not the person who stores bitterness in Tupperware containers. • Invest in joy. Dance classes, martinis, laughter — choose your remedy. • Talk it out. Therapy is more affordable than wine-fuelled Facebook rants and far more effective. Take the high road. There’s less traffic and better scenery. You can’t always avoid emotional hurt, but you can avoid living in a constant state of emotional inflation. And trust me, nothing deflates retirement faster than a bloated list of resentments. And if you’re feeling weighed down by the bloat of what life has thrown at you, remember: you can’t control inflation, but you can choose your response. Choose grace over grudges. Choose strength over stagnation. Choose the version of yourself that makes you proud. Because guess what? You’re still becoming who you are. Trust me — it’s better than a juice cleanse and more affordable than therapy. Some people age like fine wine; others age like vinegar. Emotional inflation is the burden you carry that doesn't show on the scale, but it weighs everything down. You can’t rewrite someone else’s story, but you can decide how to present yourself in your own. Taking the high road is less crowded and provides better perspectives. Inflation May Be Inevitable — But Misery? That’s Optional. Inflation has seeped into our lives like glitter at a craft table — impossible to contain and popping up in the most unexpected spots. It’s not just your budget that’s swollen (thanks to blueberries and Botox), but also your belly, your prescription drawer, and — if you’re not careful — your resentment list. But here’s the good news:  While you can’t control how high prices go, how slow your metabolism becomes, or how long Uncle Jerry holds a grudge… You can control your response.  So, here’s your call to calm, intentional, fabulous action: 1. Reclaim your power — in your spending, your body, and your mindset. 2. Choose curiosity instead of crankiness. Move more instead of staying still. Salad rather than salt (well… sometimes). 3. Be the kind of person who ages like disco — a little dramatic, slightly sparkly, and always ready to dance. And if you absolutely must inflate something… make it your sense of humour. Because in the grand game of Retirement Inflation Nation, laughter is your best hedge — and it’s fully indexed to joy. Oh — and if you're wondering whether I practice what I preach: I'm a certified fitness instructor and teach 5 jam-packed fitness classes a week at Canada’s largest gym. Movement isn’t just medicine — it’s music, community, and yes, a fabulous way to earn the right to your next martini. So, take it from someone still riding the rhythm of life — gravity is real, but so is joy. And we’re still dancing under the stars. (Here’s proof from the Coldplay concert — yes, I was the one yelling “Fix You” with both hands in the air and not a single regret.) Keep inflating the things that matter: your laugh lines, your playlist, and your purpose. With love, lunges, and a little glitter, Sue Don’t Retire... Rewire!

What did Ozzy Osbourne mean to music?

The world lost a heavy metal pioneer on Tuesday when Ozzy Osbourne, the frontman for the group Black Sabbath who went on to astounding commercial success as a solo artist, died at the age of 76. University of Rochester music professor John Covach can help frame the contributions the self-proclaimed “Prince of Darkness” made to the genre of heavy metal and popular music. “What’s That Sound?: An Introduction to Rock and Its History,” which Covach wrote with Carleton College professor Andrew Flory, is widely considered a landmark history of rock music. Covach can help distill heavy metal’s history and influences and Osbourne’s place in both. He recently helped The New York Times explain what made the album “Pet Sounds” a masterpiece for Beach Boys chief songwriter Brian Wilson. He has offered commentary to the New York Daily News on why artists might relinquish ownership of their music. Last year, he offered thoughts to The Boston Globe on the timeless appeal of aging rock ‘n’ rollers who are still packing arenas. Connect with Covach by clicking on his profile.

Election Watch 2025: Farnsworth Breaks Down Virginia’s Political Landscape

With early voting setting new records and national politics reshaping local elections, Professor Stephen Farnsworth is helping journalists and voters make sense of the noise. As director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington, Farnsworth continues to be a go-to expert across major outlets. In just the past few weeks, he’s been featured in: • NBC Washington • WAMU • Yahoo News • Richmond Times-Dispatch • DC News Now • Virginia Mercury Farnsworth has weighed in on everything from Kamala Harris’ rising prospects to the effects of Trump’s policies on rural Virginia. Whether he’s speaking to the League of Women Voters or breaking down the numbers for DC news outlets, Farnsworth brings clarity to the chaos. For journalists covering Virginia politics and U.S. elections, Farnsworth is a key source of insight. Click on the icon below to connect with: Stephen Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs; Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies Expertise: Virginia politics, media and messaging, U.S. elections, disinformation.

James Sample Shares Legal Expertise as ABC News Contributor

Hofstra Law Professor James Sample recently added ABC News Contributor to his title of professional accomplishments. In the past year, the media has consistently relied on Professor Sample for his engaging and in-depth analysis on various legal topics. He made his debut as an ABC News Contributor by discussing several major Supreme Court rulings, including limiting judges’ power to block the Trump Administration’s policies on birthright citizenship procedures.

Sample Weighs in on SCOTUS Ruling on Gender-Affirming Care for Trans Youth

Hofstra Law Professor James Sample appeared on ABC News to give a legal analysis on a new Supreme Court ruling that involves gender-affirming care for transgender children.

What's the True Story on the State of Tourism in Florida?

Tourism is one of the key economic drivers in Florida. The sector is responsible for approximately 10 percent of the Gross State Product (GSP), employs millions, and contributes billions to the state's economy. But how are things in the sector? It depends on the day, what you're reading or what you're watching: the industry in Florida is either booming or in a vulnerable situation. Here are two examples: Rising tariffs, visa delays, and shifting global travel trends have created a perfect storm, leading to a sharp drop in tourist numbers across Florida and several other U.S. states. The U.S. tourism industry is facing unprecedented challenges as international visitors choose alternative destinations amid political and economic shifts. According to recent data from the U.S. Travel Association, international visits to the U.S. saw a 14% decline in March, reflecting a broader global trend. However, the most significant impact has been felt among Canadian travelers, with a staggering 20.2% decrease in the number of Canadians visiting the U.S. This marks a troubling shift for the U.S., which has long relied on its neighboring country as a key source of international tourism. Florida, which has seen a decrease in tourism since the pandemic, is now facing a compounded crisis. The state, which historically attracted millions of international visitors, is seeing fewer long-term snowbirds, as well as a general decline in international arrivals. The state’s tourism sector, once a booming economic engine, is facing significant challenges. With both fewer foreign visitors and changes in local tourism trends, the state’s economy is under increasing strain. According to the World Travel & Journalism Council, the U.S. is on track to lose more than \$12 billion in international travel spending this year alone due to the decline in visitor numbers. June 06 - Travel and Tour World Whereas government officials are painting a very different picture. Florida welcomed 143 million visitors in 2024, setting a new tourism record for the state. State officials said this is the most visitors in a single year in Florida's history. The trend isn't slowing down, as more than 41 million people visited Florida in just the first three months of this year. May 21 - ABC News So there are questions that need to be answered: What is the current state of tourism in Florida? Have tariffs impacted visits from abroad? Does the high US dollar have anything to do with fewer people coming to the Sunshine State from outside of America? Has domestic travel increased with more Americans choosing Florida as a destination? If the sector is suffering from a decline in visitors, how can it adapt to be more attractive to tourists? If you are a reporter following the tourism industry - we're here to help. Peter Ricci is the Director of the Hospitality and Tourism Management program in Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. He is a hospitality industry veteran with more than 20 years of managerial experience in segments including food service, lodging, incentive travel and destination marketing. Peter is available to speak with the media about tourism in Florida and the potential for gambling. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

America Sees Another Surge in Political Violence

America has seen its share of political violence, the worst being the Civil War. But unrest is stirring once again in the hearts of Americans as her citizens are being divided by President Trump's deportation of illegal immigrants. Some see it as a solution to cut back violence and drugs in America, while others see it as a cruel, heartless act.  Protests are rising up across America as those who oppose the deportation are showing their dislike. People in Ohio, Florida, Alaska and other states are participating in anti-ICE protests. Texas and California have been the most vocal about it, with LA featured on the news many times.  As unlawful assembly escalated in LA, looted buildings, cars set on fire and blocked roads, President Trump sent 700 US Marines. This only frustrated state officials more who claimed they had it under control. While 338 arrests have occurred, there have been no reported deaths linked to the protests.  This is not the first time LA, California, has seen political violence though, as they have dealt with Watts Riots in 1965, the 1992 Los Angeles riots and in 1997 the North Hollywood shootout.  Dr. Stanely Schwartz is an expert on history and is available to speak to media regarding the protests and political violence throughout history – simply email mweinstein@cedarville.edu or text or call (937) 532-6885 to arrange an interview.

Lending Survey Results Reveal Recent and Dramatic Concern Due to Tariff Policy

Global consulting firm J.S. Held releases its proprietary “Lending Climate in America” survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The second quarter survey results highlight lenders’ views on important issues, including policy decisions along with their national and global impact. Each quarter, Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held, surveys lenders to identify important trends focused on the latest economic issues, business drivers, and credit trends in the current lending climate. The “Lending Climate in America” survey provides valuable information to lenders, attorneys, private equity sponsors, and the financial news media, exploring topics like: What factors do lenders see as most likely to impact the US economy in the next six months? Phoenix’s Q2 2025 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Sixty-seven percent of lenders are paying the most attention to the possibility of a U.S. recession, while 40% of lenders believe overall political uncertainty has the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders also expressed moderate concern regarding the possibility of constrained liquidity in capital markets. To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please visit: https://www.phoenixmanagement.com/lending-survey/ What shifts do lenders observe in their customers’ hiring and capital improvement plans? Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Over half of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will raise additional capital. Most telling was that lenders believe only 3% of their customers have plans to hire new employees (down from 56% in 1Q) and only 23% have plans for capital improvements (down from 67% in 1Q). Which industries are expected to see the most volatility over the next six months? For the first time in recent memory, the 3 industries that respondents identified as most likely to experience volatility in the next six months were different from the prior quarter - consumer products (60.0% versus 20.7%), retail trade (43.3% versus 31.0%), and manufacturing (33.3% versus 20.7%). How do lenders plan to adjust their loan structures? Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. For larger loan structures (greater than $25M), the plan to maintain loan structures remained relatively constant from Q1 to Q2, decreasing by 8 percentage points. As loan sizes decrease, the percentage of lenders that plan to maintain (as opposed to increase) their loan structures increased – quite dramatically in the under $15M range. How has lender sentiment toward the US economy changed from Q1 to Q2? Lender optimism in the U.S. economy decreased for the near term, moving from 2.33 in Q1 2025 to 2.10 in Q2 2025. In this current quarter, there is heavy expectation of a C level performance (63%), with the remainder split between D and B levels. More telling, lender expectations for the U.S. economy’s performance in the longer term increased sharply from 2.11 to 2.53. Of the lenders surveyed, 57% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a B level during the next twelve months, a hefty increase from the prior quarter. The “Lending Climate in America” survey is administered quarterly to lenders from various commercial banks, finance companies, and factors across the country. Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held, collects, tabulates, and analyzes the results to create a complete evaluation of national attitudes and trends. To view the full results, click on the button below: To connect with Michael Jacoby or for any other media inquiries, please contact: Kristi L. Stathis, J.S. Held +1 786 833 4864 Kristi.Stathis@JSHeld.com

FAU Data Analysis: Falling Rates Bring Some Relief to Banks

Falling interest rates brought some relief to banks’ portfolios for unrealized losses on investment securities, according to a data analysis from a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University. Only two banks with assets over $1 billion reported unbooked securities losses greater than their total equity in the first quarter of 2025, down from three in the last quarter of 2024, according to the U.S. Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Investment Securities screener. For unbooked losses equal to 50% of Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1) equity, 24 banks were on the list for the first quarter of this year, down from 34 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Rates dropped from the end of 2024 through the end of March, providing some relief to banks that had extensive interest rate risk in their investment securities portfolios. The yield on the 10-year treasury bond fell from 4.57 to 4.25 as of the end of March. “While this would appear to be good news for the U.S. banking industry, with unrealized securities losses declining by $69 billion from the end of 2024 to March, rates have climbed back to where they were at the end of 2024 so that losses today would be back up close to $500 billion,” said Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in the College of Business. The aggregate unbooked securities losses on bank balance sheets declined by $69 billion from $483 billion at the end of the fourth quarter in 2024 to $414 billion at the end of the first quarter this year. The quarterly U.S. Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Investment Securities Screener, produced as part of The Banking Initiative in FAU’s College of Business, measures banks’ exposure to risk based on their unrealized losses in their investment securities portfolios. To calculate a bank’s risk, Cole uses the most recently available data from quarterly call reports published by the U.S. Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. Of the 4,543 banks reporting in the first quarter for this year, Cole focused on 1,042 banks with more than $1 billion in assets to calculate unrealized losses on investment securities and compare those losses to a bank’s CET1. Regulators would force a bank that lost half of its CET1 capital to take remedial actions, such as raising new capital or seeking a merger partner; in the worst case, a bank may face closure by the FDIC. “It’s likely that unbooked losses will continue to grow as interest rates continue to move higher” Cole said. “Both the 50-day and 200-day moving average rate on the 10-Year Treasury bond are rising so losses are growing, not shrinking. And this is only one part of banks’ balance sheets that are suffering from rising rates. There also are massive unrealized losses on banks’ residential and commercial mortgage portfolios that total to another $500 billion.” Looking to know more? We can help. Rebel Cole is available to speak with media about banking and the impact on interest rates. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.