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President Trump Plans Call to Putin
Dr. Meena Bose talked to Fox News Radio stations around the country about President Donald Trump’s planned call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to help negotiate a ceasefire and an eventual end to the war in Ukraine. Dr. Bose spoke to: WRVA in Richmond, VA; WBAP in Dallas, TX; and WFRK in Florence, SC; WHO in Des Moines, IA; and KURV in McAllen, TX. Dr. Bose is a Hofstra University professor of political science, executive dean of the Public Policy and Public Service program, and director of the Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency.
Three Year Anniversary of Ukraine War
Three years ago, this Monday, Russian troops invaded Ukraine expecting a a quick victory. This invasion has incited Europe's largest conflict since WWII, taking tens of thousands of lives, destruction of countless cities, and the isolation of Russia. Despite this, Putin appears closer to taking a fifth of Ukraine's territory and preventing it's membership. President Trump broke the three year long policy of isolating Russia by working with Putin to work together to end the war. President Trump's explicit support for Russia's demand against Ukraine's NATO membership reveals a shift in U.S. policy. How will President's Trump's relationship with Putin shift U.S. policy? Despite majority of the West and Ukraine seeing Russia's invasion as an unprovoked act of aggression, Putin continues to insists it's necessity for Russia's security and protection of citizens in Ukraine. In 2023 Russia momentum with offensives across a 1,000kilometer front, securing necessary territorial gains. How does the progression of Russia's invasion effect it's image for American citizens? In response to the invasion, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy demanded Russia's retreat as a condition to talk. President Zelensky emphasizes Ukrainians need for support from the West; while stressing Ukraine goal to join NATO. How will the shift of support affect Ukraine mission to join NATO? Putin refuses a truce, hoping to weaken the Ukrainian government through a contentious election. Ukraine argues elections are not possible during war times. Putin refuses to accept international peacekeeping forces, remain confident in Russia ability to achieve its goal without negotiation with Ukraine. How will Putin's refusal to find a truce affect Russia and Ukraine's role in the war? Dr. Duerr is an expert on this subject and is available to speak to media regarding this ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing the war between Israel and Hamas – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview. Or schedule an interview by contacting Mark Weinstein at mweinstein@cedarville.edu
The ISS is Leaking! What Happens Now? Florida Tech's Don Platt Can Explain
There's an issue on the International Space Station (ISS) that is becoming a growing concern for both the Russian and American space programs. The ISS is leaking, and the matter is rightfully getting attention from media around the world. The reporters looking for answers are connecting with Florida Tech's Don Platt to explain what exactly is happening and what it means for the future of this $100 billion facility. Dr. Platt's work has involved developing, testing and flying different types of avionics, communications and rocket propulsion systems. He teaches about space systems. The problem exemplifies how NASA is contending with aging but critical space infrastructure: The orbiting laboratory, with a living area larger than a six-bedroom house, is the agency's only way to learn about health impacts to astronauts, develop or test life support systems for future missions, and advance a plethora of space technologies. NASA wants to keep it running until 2030 — but doing so will require constant surveillance and, literally, patching. "It's an old station, and it has done some amazing things," Don Platt, an associate professor of space systems at Florida Tech, told Mashable. Mashable, Nov. 19 Local television and national networks like NPR were also seeking Platt's expert insights. NASA and Russian space officials are at odds over the significance of a long-standing air leak aboard the International Space Station. The leak, originating from a Russian module, has reportedly persisted for about five years. Don Platt, an associate professor at the Florida Institute of Technology, explained the potential risks. “There’s definitely concerns about this leak and the potential for it to get worse over time,” Platt said. While NASA views the issue as a serious safety concern, Moscow insists the situation is under control and the module is safe. “NASA is quite concerned about it, and the Russians are more or less saying, ‘We have it under control. Don’t worry about it,’” Platt said. The affected module is one of the oldest on the station, having been operational for more than 20 years. “One of the Russian modules on the space station, one of the oldest, is starting to lose some of the air that astronauts need to breathe,” he said. November 18 - NBC News The coverage featuring Platt's insight is also being carried by Russian media and news sites. Are you following this developing story? Let us help with your coverage. Dr. Don Platt's work has involved developing, testing and flying different types of avionics, communications, rocket propulsion systems as well as astrobiology/biotechnology systems and human deep space exploration tools. Don is available to speak with media. Simply click on the icon below to arrange an interview today.
With Russia’s War in Ukraine, Aeroflot Faces Unfriendly Skies
As Russia’s resurgent global influence grows—from social media influencing to anti-Western alliances—Steven E. Harris’s expertise in modern Russian and European history has become increasingly sought-after. Harris provides expert analysis on Russia’s political economy during its war of aggression against Ukraine and how the country seeks to reshape geopolitics and achieve expansionist goals. Focusing on Russian aviation, Harris explains how Putin’s regime has adapted to Western sanctions and how Russia’s airlines and aerospace industry are evolving in an era of global economic nationalism. Below are two important pieces authored by Harris that were posted by the Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia at NYU. This blog post reflects on the historical significance of the sudden rupture in global aviation that took place after Russia invaded Ukraine, focusing on Russia and the US in particular.... Yesterday's post addressed the new cold war in the skies, which has divided the West from Russia as a consequence of Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia’s aviation sector... As the war between Russia and Ukraine stretches toward its third year - there are more and more angles and narratives to cover. And if you're a journalist looking to know more or have questions for a story - experts like Steven. E. Harris are here to help. He's available to speak with reporters - simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
West Sanctions Russian Aviation, But Moscow Decides to Keep Planes Flying Despite Risks When the U.S. and its allies slapped sanctions on Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, severing aviation links was at the top of the list. Direct flights vanished and Russian airlines lost access to spare parts for their foreign airplanes. In retaliation, Vladimir Putin’s regime impounded foreign aircraft and shut off the world’s largest air space to countries imposing sanctions. Not since the early 1980s—when the U.S. suspended routes to the USSR over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, repression in Poland and downing of a Korean Air Lines plane—have aviation ties between the two countries dipped so low. Aviation sanctions today are having an impact but come with a major risk. If the fatal crash of a jetliner killing hundreds is linked to the lack of spare parts, Putin will blame sanctions and the West. The stakes are high as Russia seeks to use any issue from cluster bombs to soccer to widen cracks in Western unity over Ukraine. To get ahead of this, U.S. policymakers and their allies need to better explain the effects of sanctions, why they’re worth the risk and why the Russian state, not the West, is ultimately responsible for any fatal crash. U.S. government assessments place Russian aviation among sectors negatively impacted by sanctions. A closer look shows widening success in degrading this increasingly weak link in Russia’s political economy. By late 2021, foreign aircraft comprised 70% of Russia’s fleet of 801 passenger airplanes, which included 298 Airbuses, 236 Boeings, and 23 other foreign aircraft such as Embraers. In addition, 95% of Russian airline flights were on foreign-made aircraft. Consequently, sanctions aimed at depriving spare parts for foreign airplanes have caused many disruptions such as fare increases to cover higher costs of repairs. Some of Russia’s 53 airlines have periodically suspended or stopped flying some of their foreign planes. Reports of Russian airlines’ cannibalization of foreign aircraft similarly underscore a dire situation. Less well known is how sanctions hurt Russian manufacturing since Western technology is critical to aircraft such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which uses a French-Russian engine (though Russians are working on a substitution). Production of the Yakovlev design bureau’s MC-21 passenger airplane faces significant delays due to sanctions that force substitution of its Western-made parts. Sanctions even helped push Russia out of a joint venture with China to produce the CR929 widebody aircraft. While China is happy to help Russia thwart sanctions, this plane needs Western systems that sanctions complicate. In response, Russia has adapted to and thwarted some aviation sanctions, which I predicted would happen because Putin’s regime is reproducing a state-centered aviation sector rooted in the Soviet past. The war has accelerated the state’s growing control over this vital economic sector, which began before Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Examples include the state’s 51% ownership of Aeroflot since 1994, the merger of two smaller, state-run airlines in 2003 and the consolidation of aircraft manufacturing in the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), which was created in 2006. More recently, the Russian state has helped the country’s airlines weather sanctions by facilitating the illegal confiscation of foreign aircraft. Russian airlines have also proven resourceful by purchasing spare parts through brokers in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Better known for supplying Russia with drones, Iran also agreed to provide Russian airlines with spare parts and has been fixing an Aeroflot Airbus for months. Many foreign airlines continue to fly to Russia, and Putin’s regime rewards friendly countries with overflight rights. But the longer sanctions remain, the harder it’s getting for Russia. To regain profitable foreign routes, its airlines are receiving government assistance to legitimately purchase the Western aircraft they illegally seized, although recent holdups in allocating such funds are causing doubts. In a throwback to the Soviet era, Putin’s regime boasts that Russia doesn’t need the West’s airplanes anyway since its one manufacturer, the UAC, will pick up the slack. Such import substitution is unlikely to succeed, as multiple delays suggest. More likely, Russia’s aviation sector will grow more reliant on the state, if not actually part of it like the UAC. This will make Russian aviation less efficient, less innovative and more expensive. Iranian airlines, which have long suffered under foreign sanctions despite some success circumventing them, present their Russian counterparts with a grim vision of the future such as being shut out of lucrative air travel markets and falling behind in emerging aviation technology. How does this shape safety in Russia’s skies? The short answer is that it’s not as bad as headlines suggest and the impact of sanctions is ambiguous at best. Click bait stories paint a dire picture but often conflate commercial, military and general aviation into alarming numbers that do not accurately capture what ordinary passengers face. Some accounts, such as one claiming 120 accidents occurred in 2023, provide few details or sources. Annual safety reports from Russia’s Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) allow for comparison over time but often obscure Russia’s situation by combining data from each post-Soviet state it monitors. Its 2019 report is mysteriously missing and its decision not to investigate the fatal crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Embraer Legacy 600 plane suggests meddling from above. That said, the IAC source base is the most systematic we have. Keeping in mind the potential for the politicization of its conclusions, what does a critical reading of its data alongside other sources suggest? First, fatal crashes in commercial and general aviation actually decreased in Russia from 18 in 2021 to 13 in 2022, and related deaths decreased from 70 to 24. Data for the first half of 2023 points in the same direction, with six fatal crashes and nine deaths. This trend was likely helped by the 14% decline in traffic after February 2022. While so many fatal crashes sound substantial, all but three in 2021 and all but one in 2022 involved small aircraft under 5,700 kilograms, not the jetliners we associate with most commercial flying. Absolute figures on crashes and deaths capture headlines but they don’t say much about safety without considering their relation to passengers flown or departures. According to the IAC, the rate of aviation accidents and the rate of fatal crashes per one million departures both increased from 2020 to 2021 but then decreased in 2022. The IAC does not single out Russia from other post-Soviet states for this metric. But since Russia has the largest aviation sector among those countries, these data suggest that its aviation safety has not dramatically worsened since early 2022. Indeed, even critics who argue that Russian airlines are less safe partly because of sanctions conclude that “2022 and 2023 were also good years for airline safety [in Russia] compared to 2021.” Comparisons with the U.S. similarly suggest that passenger aviation is not as disastrous as some headlines suggest. The IAC data indicates that Russia and other post-Soviet states are usually but not always behind the U.S. in passenger aviation safety. In 2018, for example, IAC countries reported a 0.8 rate of fatal crashes per 1 million departures of passenger aircraft above 5,700 kilograms. Comparable statistics from the National Transportation Safety Board showed a 0.11 rate for that year for scheduled U.S. carrier flights. In 2019, the rates were 2.3 (IAC) and 0.10 (U.S.), but in 2020, both IAC countries and the U.S. enjoyed a 0.0 rate of fatal crashes. The following year, however, IAC countries reported a 1.9 rate of fatal crashes, whereas the NTSB reported a 0.0 rate.1 Against this background of Russian airline safety, let’s now turn to the impact of sanctions. While some commentators emphasize that no fatal crashes have been tied to sanctions, others claim they make Russian airlines unsafe and that it’s only a matter of time before such a fatal crash happens. Some even argue that life-threatening dangers prove aviation sanctions are effective and could help turn Russians against Putin. To reassure the public, Russian aviation officials insist the country’s airlines are safe despite sanctions, as do Russian business media and aviation journalists. This plays to Putin’s claims to legitimacy based in part on withstanding anything the West throws at him. In sharp contrast, Ukrainian media tells Russians their airlines are a disaster waiting to happen precisely because of sanctions. Independent Russian journalists banished by Putin concur, raising alarms about efforts to cover up the impact of sanctions and about the many ways Russian airlines cut corners on safety. In short, an information war exists around the morbid question of whether a Russian jetliner will crash and the role sanctions could play. Fears of a fatal crash were validated by the emergency landing of a Ural Airlines A320 in September, apparently caused by malfunctioning hydraulics tied to sanctions. But a closer examination by a Russian aviation journalist suggests the pilots played a more important role by pressing on to an airport for which there wasn’t enough fuel. Recent Russian state assessments of aviation safety similarly point to pilot error and poor training as the chief causes of aviation incidents. More generally, airplane disasters are usually caused by a convergence of factors—bad weather, a manageable mechanical failure and pilot error—not just one problem. In public discussions, however, pinpointing sanctions’ role tracks more with the politics of the war than technical expertise. At the end of the day, Russian airlines and aviation authorities are solely responsible for putting planes in the sky and Russians’ lives at risk. They continue to claim that everything is fine. But if a fatal crash of a Boeing or Airbus flown by a Russian airline kills hundreds, I predict this narrative will quickly change. Putin will blame the West as he does for everything else affecting his legitimacy, from Russia’s economic problems and his diplomatic failures to protests against his regime and even the war he started in Ukraine. Such a scenario will be a serious test for policymakers who argue that punishing Russia with sanctions is still worth it. To prepare for this, they need to take a page from the Biden administration’s release of intelligence on Russia’s military buildup before the full-scale invasion: publicize as much intelligence as possible on sanctions and their impact, as well as Russia’s aviation sector and what it does or doesn’t do to ensure safety. As Putin’s regime falls back on Soviet-era secrecy about airline safety, sharing such intelligence will be a powerful tool. This will also contribute to broader Western efforts at combatting Russia’s better known disinformation campaigns such as those denying its human rights abuses in Ukraine.
Expert Perspective: UMW's Steven E. Harris lends his opinion to The Russia File
The following piece was written by Steven E. Harris published by the Wilson Center in April 2024 Sanctions Are Spoiling Russia’s Plans to Make Its Own Airplanes Putin’s regime is feeling confident these days. Advances on the battlefield in Ukraine, expansions in armaments production, and the dithering of Republicans in the U.S. Congress show the war has turned in Russia’s favor. A well-orchestrated presidential election and some real public support buoy the regime. Political opponents are either dead, in prison, or in exile. Putin’s regime has also declared victory in blunting Western sanctions and now plans to permanently thwart them with programs of import substitution. Nowhere is this better seen than in aviation, where the state proclaims it will produce over a thousand new airplanes to replace the foreign aircraft its airlines have long flown. But this bold vision for aviation autarky has little chance of succeeding. Russia’s Short-Term Success in Blunting Aviation Sanctions Thus far, Putin’s regime has weathered aviation sanctions through a two-pronged strategy. First, Russian airlines illegally kept about 400 foreign airplanes—primarily Airbuses and Boeings—owned by foreign leasing companies. Second, the state bankrolled settlement claims in order to purchase some of these airplanes so that airlines could fly them abroad without risk of repossession and reduce their foreign debt. To date, approximately 170 foreign airplanes have been legally acquired in this fashion, and the Ministry of Transportation recently asked for more cash to continue settling claims on the remaining 230 foreign planes. The next question is how long Russian airlines, from the state-owned flag carrier Aeroflot to private companies such as S7 and Ural Air Lines, can continue flying their foreign planes. As I wrote in late October, safety has been degraded far less than predicted. But in the absence of spare parts, software updates, and thorough maintenance by foreign providers, Russian airlines have about two years before they will have to ground Boeings and Airbuses for major repairs performed using third-party spare parts. Anticipating the eventual retirement of foreign planes, Putin’s regime has embarked on a massive program to make all-Russian airplanes. This program promises independence from Western technology and leasing companies but reveals the success of sanctions and fundamental weaknesses in state capacity. The 2030 Aviation Manufacturing Plan Announced in June 2022, the program calls for the state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec to manufacture 1,036 airplanes with only Russian parts by 2030. In January 2024, the state allocated 283 billion rubles (U.S. $3.1 billion) to help finance the production of 609 airplanes and prioritize medium-haul aircraft in the overall manufacturing plan. Before sanctions, Russian manufacturers produced a small number of narrow body, medium-haul airplanes such as the MC-21 and the Superjet-100 (SSJ-100) with Western components. Twelve SSJ-100s were manufactured in 2021 and ten the following year. Among the aircraft slated to replace Boeings and Airbuses, the plan called for production in 2023 of three medium-haul Tupolev-214 (Tu-214) airplanes and two Superjet-NEW planes (Superjet-100s with all-Russian parts). None of these were built. In fact, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) failed to manufacture a single passenger airplane in 2023. More recently, the UAC conceded further delays of up to two years for rollout of the MC-21, SSJ-NEW, and Tu-214, as well as of smaller, short-haul aircraft such as the Ilyushin-114 (Il-114) and the “Baikal.” The transition to total import substitution is proving difficult, making it impossible to fulfill early targets of the manufacturing plan. By withdrawing access to Western technology critical for manufacturing, sanctions have successfully shut down production. Russian manufacturers will produce at best inferior aircraft that fly shorter routes using more fuel. At its current rate, the UAC is unlikely to manufacture more than a dozen or so showcase narrow body airplanes before 2030. The manufacturer may have better luck producing simpler planes, such as the Baikal, but the state’s injection of 283 billion rubles doesn’t target its production or that of two other short-haul airplanes. Since the UAC will likely not meet the plan’s annual targets any time soon, Russia’s airlines will have to make do with their aging foreign airplanes and acquire spare parts from third parties. Putin admitted as much at his call-in event in December 2023, during which he praised the import-substitution plan but added that the government would continue to purchase illegally held foreign planes. What Will Russia’s Aviation Manufacturing Plan Actually Produce? Rather than produce new aircraft, the immediate purpose of the state’s manufacturing plan is political theater. The infusion of 283 billion rubles was meant to show the public, before the presidential elections, that Putin’s regime is serious about securing commercial aviation and to generate a sense of normalcy in the midst of war. In the long run, the manufacturing plan is more likely to produce further distortions in Russia’s political economy. These include corruption, secrecy, technologically backward aircraft, and even more state control over commercial aviation. The 283 billion rubles will help Rostec keep state-run subsidiaries such as the United Engine Corporation operating with soft budget constraints and favorable contracts that now lack any competition from Western firms. Executives will siphon off their share of the funds, while Putin’s regime will turn a blind eye as long as everyone remains loyal. If the manufacturing plan continues to falter, state-owned manufacturers will have more incentive to keep their failures secret. In 2023, for example, the Ural Civil Aviation Factory kept hidden cost overruns for the Baikal. When news of a 48 percent increase was finally publicized, Putin’s point man for the Far East region, Yuri Trutnev, was incensed and proclaimed, “Our people are like that: they don’t like to share information.” For now, Putin’s regime allows the Russian business media to report fairly openly about the country’s aviation industry on issues such as spare parts and safety, state subsidies, and shortfalls in production. But if commercial flying becomes more precarious and the manufacturing plan remains unfulfilled, the government will likely limit what the public knows about its airlines and long-term plans to maintain them. As the economic historian Mark Harrison shows in his recent book, Secret Leviathan, secrecy in the Soviet era significantly degraded state capacity in many areas, including production. Post-Soviet autocrats face a similar “secrecy/capacity tradeoff,” while newer techniques of disinformation further erode capacity. In attempting to revive the Soviet Union’s autarkic aviation industry, Putin’s regime will find it hard to avoid similar reductions in capacity. Insofar as Russia’s commercial aviation industry is concerned, the lesson for the West is that it pays to play the long game. Russia has effective tools for blunting sanctions in the short run, but in the long run it faces structural obstacles and the absence of Western technology, both of which will degrade this economic sector. The main question remains whether the United States and its allies can keep up the pressure by enforcing sanctions.
Amid Detainees' Release, Putin Flaunts Power and Flouts Western Influence
On August 1, the United States, Russia, Germany and three other European nations engaged in an historic 24-person East-West prisoner exchange. The largest such swap since the end of the Cold War, the multi-country deal secured the release of three prominent American detainees: Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, corporate security executive Paul Whelan and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty editor Alsu Kurmasheva. It also freed a dozen Russian opposition leaders, incarcerated in their native country for challenging Vladimir Putin and his authoritarian regime. Lynne Hartnett, PhD, is the chair of Villanova University’s Department of History and an expert on modern Russia, protest movements and dissidents in exile. Recently, she shared some insights on the Kremlin's decision to release the American and Russian prisoners—as well as the egotism, oppressive tendencies and political posturing that drove their detention. Q: The arrests and sentencings of Gershkovich, Whelan and Kurmasheva have been described as "outrageous," "a mockery of justice" and reflective of "a total disregard for basic freedoms." What prompted Putin and the Russian government to detain these individuals? Dr. Hartnett: For Putin, seizing Gershkovich, Whelan and Kurmasheva was a power play. They were pawns for him to use when he deemed it convenient. If they could be used in a prisoner swap, they would be. But if that time never arrived, their incarceration, suffering and even potential deaths were inconsequential to him. Their arrests were also a signal that, in Russia, Putin's authority is uncontested. These were American citizens, and around the world, a U.S. passport opens doors: It holds power; it provides access; and it affords its holder protection. But the arrests of Gershkovich, Whelan and Kurmasheva were Putin’s attempt to demonstrate the limits of American influence. They were meant as a signal that, in Russia, a U.S. passport becomes meaningless if it serves Putin to make it so. Q: In recent years, the Russian government has seemingly worked to rehabilitate the reputations of figures like Josef Stalin, who infamously used the Soviet Gulag to stifle opposition and criticism. Is Putin's use of detentions as a political cudgel similar? DH: The show trials of the Stalinist era are frequently referenced. However, it should be stressed that those were largely intended for domestic consumption. They were used to justify the Communist elites' repression of fellow citizens by broadcasting "evidence" that enemies lurked within. The trials of Americans like Gershkovich and Brittney Griner [a professional basketball player detained on smuggling charges] were designed to show the world, not just Russians, that Putin's regime would not be cowed—even if the person being tried had fame and a powerful enterprise, like the Wall Street Journal or the WNBA, supporting them. Q: The New York Times recently ran a piece on the Russian dissidents released, claiming "hopes are high [they] will breathe new life into a fragmented opposition force." What do you anticipate these political players' activism will look like in the coming years, especially in exile? DH: As in the Imperial and Soviet periods, Russian censorship prevents any news or opinions that are not the government's from coming to light. As Putin has dismantled political opposition in Russia and tightened his grip on any vestiges of civil society in the country, there is little hope that a powerful opposition movement can gain momentum without outside support. This is where the Russian dissidents living abroad come in. They will ensure that a vision for another type of Russia is articulated. At the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries, political exiles smuggled illegal newspapers and journals into the Russian empire to instill hope in their compatriots, to give them some indication that a nation beyond the autocracy was achievable. This, in my opinion, is the role that Russian dissidents living in exile must have today. They must provide the vision. They must provide the hope. While they cannot change the system on their own—they need a movement en masse—the dissidents abroad are needed to demonstrate that a nation without Putin and his repressive regime is possible. This is certainly not an easy venture, and it will require extraordinary sacrifices to be made a reality. However, it may be the Russian people's only hope.
2024 presidential and Michigan state elections: MSU experts can comment
MSU experts can discuss national political issues to the Supreme Court and constitutional issues to Michigan's state politics and races The 2024 presidential election is in full swing. As President Joe Biden is set to cruise to the Democratic nomination and former President Donald Trump is likely poised to receive the Republican nomination, 2024 is setting up to be a rematch of 2020. Michigan’s primary is now earlier on the calendar, Feb. 27, with the Republicans holding a caucus to award their remaining delegates on March 2. Despite being a presidential election year, Michigan has important statewide elections. An open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, could tip the balance of power in the Senate, potentially deciding which party holds the majority. Michigan’s seventh and eight congressional races have incumbents leaving office, making those set to be some of the most nationally watched and funded races nationally. The state House currently has an exact bipartisan split, setting up races with very high stakes. Michigan State University experts are available to comment on many issues of the presidential election including: political parties and their evolution, campaign strategy and polling, Trump’s legal troubles and the U.S. Supreme Court, political diversity and messaging and local elections and voting. Additionally, several of these experts can comment on Michigan’s federal and state elections. General presidential and Michigan election issues Corwin Smidt is an associate professor of American politics and research methods in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. He can comment on national elections and polling for the presidential election as well as statewide elections. Contact: smidtc@msu.edu "Michigan continues to trend toward being a battleground state, but right now it looks like a battle of attrition. Donald Trump's poll numbers really haven't improved as much since 2021 as Joe Biden's have declined, but Governor Whitmer's popularity remains high. The state Republican party continues to have fights over its management and will have a contested and possibly divisive Senate primary. Despite this, Republicans have a chance to pick up seats in the US House and state legislature because of Democratic retirements and ongoing redistricting changes." Matt Grossmann is the director of MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and a professor of political science. He is an expert on a broad range of topics surrounding the 2024 election, including political parties ,campaigns and elections. He also oversees survey research, candidate development and legislative training at MSU. Additionally, he can discuss Michigan’s primary and elections. Contact: grossm63@msu.edu “The presidential nomination process evolved out of reforms to the delegate selection process for those conventions, which now means delegates are overwhelmingly selected based on presidential primary results. From the voters’ perspective, it often looks like any other election where you select your preferred candidate. But the parties still have power to coordinate their rules and selection procedures. Michigan has an opportunity to set the terms for future elections, showing that it can become engaged, with diverse interests, and earn the right to vote early in the process in 2028. Since Michigan does not have party registration, voters will be able to participate in the primary of their choice, which has provided an incentive for individuals to vote in the contest that presents the most uncertainty.” Read more from Grossmann on MSUToday. Dante Chinni is a research specialist in MSU’s School of Journalism and is the director of the American Communities Project in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences. He can discuss polling and changes in the parties over time, as well as the voting patterns among groups in specific places. He can also comment on various Michigan political issues. Contact: chinni@msu.edu “In Michigan, and in other states, the 2024 election will be determined by the margin of victory in different kinds of places. Can the Democrats get what they need out of the big city and college town communities, like Wayne, Ingham and Washtenaw counties? Can the Republicans get the numbers they need out of blue-collar middle suburbs, such as Macomb? The turnout and margins in those kinds of places, and others, will determine who wins in November.” Constitutional issues and the Supreme Court Jordan Cash is an assistant professor of political theory and constitutional democracy in James Madison College. He can comment on general requests about the presidency and national elections as well as issues surrounding the Supreme Court. Contact: cashjor1@msu.edu “The 2024 election is already shaping up to be one of the most unusual elections in American history, but one of the most unique aspects is the role that the judiciary is likely to play in the process. With former president and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump facing indictments at both the state and federal levels, the election season is as likely to be punctuated with legal news and updates as it is with campaign speeches and negative advertising. Moreover, the Supreme Court will be critical as it has heard or will likely be hearing cases surrounding whether states can disqualify Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment and whether he has absolute immunity from when he was president. When we also consider that President Joe Biden is facing his own investigations from House Republicans, the election seems poised to not only raise the political stakes but also considerable constitutional and legal questions.” Read more from Cash about presidential elections on MSUToday. Brian Kalt is a professor of law and the Harold Norris Faculty Scholar in the College of Law. He can comment on 20th Amendment issues, the electoral college and presidential prosecution and immunities. Contact: kalt@law.msu.edu “A lot of constitutional law questions that seemed purely theoretical are now front and center in our election campaign. Hopefully, the Supreme Court will move quickly and provide some clarity and certainty on these issues so that when November rolls around, voters can make a fully informed choice.” Ryan Black is a professor of American politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science, and a faculty affiliate in the College of Law. His expertise includes public opinion and the Supreme Court, and he can speak to appointments and vacancies. Contact: rcblack@msu.edu “Results of the 2024 election have the potential to profoundly shift the center of gravity in the politics of appointments to the federal judiciary, which includes, most importantly, the Supreme Court. There is no doubt that a president's most enduring legacy is who they put on the High Court, but confirmation politics today make the partisan makeup of the Senate a prominent roadblock in a president’s path to success.” Erica Frantz is an associate professor of comparative politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. She is a specialist on issues and themes relating to authoritarianism. Contact: frantzer@msu.edu “Today’s democracies typically fall apart at the hands of their elected leaders, such that elections are critical focal points for understanding democratic trajectories. Importantly, research shows that where leaders come to power backed by personalist parties – or parties that are synonymous with the leader’s persona – the risk of democratic erosion increases substantially. For the U.S., this implies that the more the Republican Party becomes indistinguishable from Trump, the more American democracy is vulnerable to collapse from within should Trump return to the presidency.” Political messaging and diversity Dustin Carnahan is an associate professor in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences. His work focuses on how exposure to political information influences people’s attitudes, beliefs and decisions. His recent research focuses on how people come to encounter and believe misinformation and the effectiveness of messages designed to correct misinformed beliefs. Contact: carnaha9@msu.edu “While research suggests that political misinformation does not have a profound impact on voters’ decisions, the proliferation of misinformation can have more subtle effects on voters and elections – such as fostering toxic discourse around issues and candidates, promoting political polarization and distracting from more substantive matters. Concerns around misinformation are likely to be of great interest during the upcoming election cycle as advances in AI technology pose significant challenges to voters’ ability to identify what is real and what is fake.” Eric Juenke is an associate professor of American politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. He can comment on issues relating to minority candidates, specifically the candidacy and election of minority candidates. Additionally, he teaches in the Chicano/Latino Studies program. Contact: juenke@msu.edu “While we do seem to have a rematch at the top of the ticket, with a vice president who is a woman of color and another vice president who has yet to be announced but could also be a woman candidate, we will be seeing a continued diverse candidate pool this cycle, I expect. It’s still early yet in the congressional races, but there should be a number of high-profile races in the country and in Michigan that should highlight a more diverse candidate pool. While the parties still have a long, long way to go in recruiting and supporting women and racial and ethnic minority candidates to run for office, the trajectory is positive.” Daniel Bergan is an associate professor and the director of master’s studies in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences, who also has an appointment in James Madison College. His research focuses on constituent communications with policymakers. Contact: bergan@msu.edu “When communicating with a policymaker, especially one with whom you disagree, you want to prevent them from discounting your opinion. One way to do this is by citing quality evidence to support your position. When contacting a policymaker about an issue, be aware that they may discount your opinion if they disagree. But note also that carefully crafted communications can convey your position without being written off — and could improve how accurately the policymaker understands public attitudes about public policies.” Read more from Bergan on MSUToday. Importance of local elections Sarah Reckhow is a professor of American politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. She can comment on topics related to education policy in the presidential election. She is a specialist on local elections and school board elections. Contact: reckhow@msu.edu “Partisan polarization is having a growing impact on education politics, and we can see growing disagreement between Democrats and Republicans on key issues such as school choice and curriculum. This polarization is playing a role in elections, even nonpartisan school board elections, and it will be an important trend to watch in 2024.” Erin Kramer is the community liaison coordinator for MSU Community and Student Relations. She also advises MSUVote to support students and the local community voting. She can comment on efforts to promote voting efforts and resources that can be offered by universities and municipalities. Contact: kramere6@msu.edu “Michigan State University is home to MSUvote, an Initiative that strives to support students in their civic engagement. Student participation in voting is both a right and a responsibility. MSUvote is committed to getting out the vote,getting out the vote, reducing barriers to registration, and supporting all educational initiatives. Over the years, Michigan State has been fortunate to work with the East Lansing, Lansing, Meridian Township, and Bath Clerks to support our students in exercising their right to vote. Participation is foundational to the function of democracy, and we are committed to supporting students in that activity. MSUvote has hosted registration rallies, absentee parties, and worked to facilitate awareness of elections through multiple campus channels over the years to support participation and education. This year, the MSU STEM Building will be home to one of East Lansing’s Early Voting Centers, it will be operating Saturday Feb. 17 through Sunday Feb. 25.” Top issues for voters David Ortega is an associate professor in the Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics in the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, where he is also a faculty laureate. He can comment on consumer, producer and agribusiness decisions that affect the agricultural and food sectors, including the cost of food, which remains a concern for many Americans. Contact: dlortega@msu.edu “Persistent high food prices are a constant reminder of the economic difficulties facing voters. Although overall inflation has cooled and grocery price increases have moderated, food costs 25% more today than it did four years ago. And given the frequent nature of grocery shopping, food costs have a disproportionate impact on how voters perceive inflation.” Robert Brathwaite is the associate dean for research and an associate professor with a specialization in international relations in James Madison College. He can comment on foreign conflict and relations, including how it will impact U.S. policy and the presidential election. Contact: brathwa1@msu.edu “As the war between Russia and Ukraine approaches it two-year mark, the political and economic ramifications of this conflict are becoming more profound. Some political dynamics to watch this year associated with this conflict include changes in NATO’s military posture, political unity of the European Union, deepening Sino-Russian strategic cooperation, and the 2024 US presidential election. This conflict will also impact important global economic trends this year that include global energy supplies, food security, technology export controls, and the role of the US dollar in the global economy. More importantly, this ongoing conflict is a catalyst to evolving changes in the global security architecture with costs and consequences that are unknown.” Jason Miller is the interim chairperson of them Department of Supply Chain Management and the Eli Broad Professor in Supply Chain Management in the Broad College of Business. He can comment on various supply chain issues such as the impact of Suez Canal diversions on disruptions and inflation as well as the impact of tariffs on U.S. firms and consumers, as foreign conflict and trade are top of mind this presidential election. Contact: mill2831@broad.msu.edu “Business leader across industries ranging from manufacturing and mining to retailing are closely watching the 2024 election cycle, as the outcome could substantially shape the business landscape in the form of tariffs, foreign policy toward China and Russia, and the extent of military escalation in the Mideast. All of these policies affect strategic, long-term decisions regarding global sourcing, market entry strategies, and capacity and demand planning.” Antonio Doblas Madrid is an associate professor in the Department of Economics in the College of Social Science. He can comment on the economy and the effect of inflation, which remains a top issue for voters this year. Contact: doblasma@msu.edu “The economy and inflation is an issue on the minds of many Americans.Forecasters and market-based measures of expectations both predict that inflation is likely to continue falling gradually in 2024, to about 2.5%. Thus, the inflation shock that hit the economy is expected to continue fading, although it may take some time to go that last mile from 3% to 2%. The Fed also appears to be quite optimistic on inflation, given its latest forward guidance.” Read more from Doblas Madrid on the economy and inflation on MSUToday.
#ExpertSpotlight: Who is Vladimir Putin?
In the intricate arena of global politics, the life of Vladimir Putin stands as a pivotal narrative, encapsulating the rise of one of the most influential and controversial leaders of our time. This topic is not only newsworthy because of Putin's significant impact on international relations and global security but also due to the profound influence he wields over Russia’s political landscape and its socioeconomic dynamics. Understanding Putin’s life, leadership style, and strategic decisions offers critical insights into current geopolitical tensions, energy politics, and global governance. The biography of Vladimir Putin presents multiple angles that are of substantial interest to a broad audience, including: Early Life and Rise to Power: Exploring Putin's background, education, and career trajectory that led to his ascendancy in Russian politics. Leadership Style and Governance: Analyzing Putin's approach to leadership, his consolidation of power, and the mechanisms he uses to maintain political control. Domestic Policies and Economic Impact: Assessing the domestic policies implemented during Putin’s tenure, their impact on the Russian economy, and public opinion within Russia. Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Influence: Investigating Putin's foreign policy strategies, his influence on international relations, and key events such as the annexation of Crimea and involvement in Syria. Human Rights and Democratic Challenges: Examining issues related to human rights, freedom of speech, and the state of democracy under Putin’s rule. Energy Politics and Economic Leverage: Understanding Russia’s role in global energy markets, Putin's use of energy resources as a tool of political influence, and the economic implications for Europe and beyond. The life of Vladimir Putin offers journalists a rich tapestry of storylines that delve into the complexities of his leadership and its far-reaching consequences on both national and global stages. Connect with an Expert about Russia and Vladimir Putin: Glen Duerr, Ph.D. Professor of International Studies · Cedarville University Lynne Hartnett, PhD Associate Professor and Chair of History | College of Liberal Arts and Sciences · Villanova University Craig Albert, PhD Professor of Political Science and Graduate Director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies · Augusta University Stephen Dyson, Ph.D. Professor of Political Science · University of Connecticut Erica Frantz Assistant professor of political science · Michigan State University To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com Photo credit: ANTIPOLYGON YOUTUBE
Year three: What fate awaits the fighting in Ukraine?
As we enter year three of the war between Ukraine and Russia, the death toll continues to rise, and there doesn’t appear to be any end in sight to the war. Craig Albert, PhD, professor of politics and director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Pamplin College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences at Augusta University, said it appears victory does not seem likely for either side, and he expects it to form into a “frozen conflict.” “There are two ways out of this, however,” said Albert. “The first is that the West, mainly the United States, does not continue to arm Ukraine. If this becomes the new normal, then Ukraine will not be able to keep up against Russia and will eventually fall through a war of attrition being waged by Russia.” “The second, less likely but far more threatening scenario, is that Russia expands the war to other states in the area or inadvertently hits a NATO-member state with either kinetic or massive cyberattacks. It may draw NATO into the war directly. In this case, Ukraine takes the advantage, but the war expands to something not seen since World War II.” Albert added that the war is becoming a war of attrition, and, if one side maintains morale, weapons and supply-chain logistics and if one side can maintain air superiority, it’s likely to have an advantage. “If Ukraine manages to get F-16s in the fight sooner rather than later, and longer-ranged missiles are given to them as well, this could cause a stalemate and force Russia into negotiation,” Albert said. He noted Ukraine is making significant gains in the air and has managed to shoot down seven sophisticated aircraft recently, forcing Russian air units to be more cautious about their tactics and even move further away from the frontline. “If this continues, Ukraine can exploit this as Russian forces would likely be left without air cover in future battles.” With everything that has happened in the first two years of the war, it has not deterred Russian President Vladimir Putin from ramping up his resolve. “Putin has doubled-down,” Albert said. “He has increased his forces in the fight, made more aggressive postures to NATO member states and has unleashed his cyber and informational capabilities across the world to take advantage in those realms. Putin continues to pursue pure power politics and is unlikely to back down.” Craig Albert, PhD, is director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University. He is a leading expert on war, terrorism and American politics. This is an important international and national issue. Albert is available to speak with media – simply click on his name to arrange an interview today.
