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A New Kind of "Zoom" Science Lesson
With the end of the school year just around the corner and numerous COVID-19 restrictions still in place for the foreseeable future, many parents are worried. Summer camps in Pennsylvania are beginning to open—but with limited capacity. So, what are working caretakers to do with their kids all day? Villanova University professor of chemistry Marta Guron, PhD, and six of her students have created informative science lessons that bring learning and fun together in a virtual environment. In a typical year, Dr. Guron gathers a group together who volunteer their time by visiting local elementary schools to perform hands-on science experiments with fourth-graders, fifth-graders and sixth-graders. When in-person lessons were no longer an option due to the pandemic, the Villanovans adapted their strategy. Though finals are over and Villanova's campus remains empty, six dedicated undergraduate and graduate students are still finding time to go virtual with their lessons. In the following video, Dr. Guron and the Villanova students use PowerPoint, plastic containers, water and their choice of "solids" to talk about density. The supplies for this outreach program are typically provided by Villanova, but in light of everyone being "stuck at home," Dr. Guron encouraged the grade school students to experiment. "If there is something that you don't have at home, it's OK to try to replace different things. For example, some students, when they added different solids, they might have added a penny or a piece of wood. But others might have a bead or something else. It doesn't... much matter." She adds, "Please make sure you talk to your mom and dad before you take anything out!" Some other experiments the team has done include assessing symmetry in crystals, making the gooey, Double Dare-inspired "gak," building a fruit battery, investigating sound and studying capillary action in flowers. Dr. Guron is grateful that her students were still interested in the project, even after the end of a particularly unusual semester. "I thought it was awesome that these students all volunteered time and effort after their final exams were over because of their dedication to the program and to the kids. We are truly a community of helpers."
Diary of a COVID-19 crisis nurse in NYC: A Georgia Southern student’s first job
On May 1, Tucker Westbrook could finally sleep in. He’d been on duty as a COVID-19 crisis nurse at Harlem Hospital Center in New York City for 11 consecutive days, with a routine that began before the sun came up and ended long after the city had gone dark. Most mornings, he’d wake at 5:45 am., center himself with prayer and meditation, eat breakfast, and hop on a bus in time to clock in for his shift at the largest public hospital in Central Harlem by 7 a.m. Each day as he entered the halls of the facility’s surgical floor, which was transformed into a COVID-19 holding unit for the larger part of his three-week work rotation, he was unsure of what he’d encounter. Just weeks earlier, Westbrook, a May 2019 Georgia Southern University nursing graduate from Butler, Georgia, accepted a short-term contract to assist with the Coronavirus pandemic in the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak. This was Westbrook’s first professional job, following what was supposed to be a yearlong mission trip in Southeast Asia, but was cut short due to the pandemic, and nothing could fully prepare him for the impact of his initial experience. “The first day, I thought, ‘I’m not prepared for this,’” he admitted. “Those first few days I was on pins and needles and thought, ‘how am I going to mess up?’” The stakes were high. By the time he arrived in New York City, thousands had already been hospitalized, and many had died. Seasoned nurses and doctors were depleted and morale was low across the city, he explained on the phone as he looked out over a desolate Times Square from his hotel window. “They asked me, ‘why did you come here?’” Westbrook recalled. “And I said that I wanted to be, hopefully, a light in this dark place right now. The patients, the doctors, the nurses, the nursing assistants, the janitorial assistants — my goal is to learn everyone’s names and greet them with a smile behind my mask.” A friend encouraged Westbrook to look for a temporary nursing job upon his return from abroad. When he applied for highly competitive positions with a crisis staffing agency, he requested placement in an area hard hit by the pandemic. “Just like Southeast Asia, I wanted to go where there was the biggest need, and I had enough gifts to meet that need,” Westbrook said. This was Westbrook’s first trip to New York, and he stepped into a scene where images of makeshift morgues and ventilator shortages splashed across the media came to life in front of him. “It has been surreal to see,” he said. Assigned to provide cluster care to potential COVID-19-positive patients for minimal exposure, Westbrook also focused on simple acts of kindness to help ease increased anxiety among the patients. “That might be things as small as giving a wet rag to wipe their face,” Westbrook said. “It may be filling their jars with ice cold water in the morning. Whatever might help them feel more comfortable.” Westbrook’s patients were diverse: a teenage gunshot victim who sobbed at the prospect of being infected with the virus; an adult male who discussed intimate thoughts about death with his family over the phone; and a woman who was depressed until Westbrook sat with her so she didn’t feel alone. Experiencing humanity in its most delicate form was life-defining. “I was learning more about nursing care but also continuing to serve (my patients) beyond simply giving them medicine,” Westbrook said. “I was able to advocate for them with the doctor, especially without their families there. I’m learning how to go above and beyond, and what our job responsibilities are. I want to keep growing and learning to continue to give care to my patients.” The hospital staff also offered enormous support and guidance to Westbrook, who almost two weeks into the job felt exponentially more confident in his abilities. “If you had told me about any of this I wouldn’t believe it,” he said. “It has been incredible. I did not think I could do that at all, and here I am on the other side. This was such a lofty and high goal to complete this and do well. I’m thankful to even be here and have this opportunity.” Westbrook credits his father for encouraging him to study nursing, and Georgia Southern faculty for their expert instruction, which he put to use in New York, as well as their sage advice. “I wasn’t sure I was going to get my license,” he said. “My desire to become a doctor or a missionary became more and more compelling, but my professors assured me that it would be worthwhile to pursue my license, and they were right.” Following a quarantine in his family’s home, Westbrook will begin pre-medicine classes at Georgia Southern this summer. If you are a journalist looking to know more about Tucker’s story or the nursing program at Georgia Southern University – let us help with your coverage. Barry Joyner is the dean of Georgia Southern University’s Waters College of Health Professions - simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
Forecasting demand of any product for industry, manufacturing and even retail is already a difficult task. And now, amid a global pandemic that has seen some industries grind to a halt while others ramp up to keep up - means that measuring expectations about demand is key to corporate survival during these trying times. We have not experienced a global pandemic like the coronavirus in last 100 years. The sheer increase in demand for everyday necessities like toilet paper, sanitary wipes and bottled water is putting undo stress on a lean global supply chain. It is testing the agility of many retailers and consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies as they attempt to ramp up manufacturing facilities and logistical operations while struggling to keep up with consumer demand. Business executives are looking to data, analytics, and technology for answers on how to predict and plan for the surge and, ultimately, the decline in consumer demand. It is significantly easier to shut down facilities than it is to quickly boost production and capacity. The biggest unknown is whether there will be a delayed economic recovery or a prolonged contraction. Regardless of the outcome, retailers and their CPG suppliers will need to think ahead and be prepared to act quickly. March 25 – RIS News There are so many angles and aspects of our daily life that need to be covered during the COVID-19 outbreak – and if you are a journalist looking at how business and industry are adapting during this crisis, the let our experts help. Dr. Karen Sedatole is the Goizueta Advisory Board Term Professor of Accounting. She has conducted extensive research on forecasting and capacity management that can shed light on the challenges of responding to the current uncertain environment. Karen is available to speak with media – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.
Baylor University Marketing Professor Jim Roberts, Ph.D., has been studying consumer behavior and spending habits for decades. He is recognized internationally for his research and commentary on the subject. He said the consumer response during the current coronavirus pandemic -- evidenced by the frequent image of empty shelves of essentials -- is concerning and advises shoppers to refocus their actions on the good of the community. “This crisis is an ethical litmus test. I strongly suggest that people not horde essentials, but that they buy only enough for the near future. I am deeply disappointed when I see shoppers with carts full of water, Purell, toilet paper, etc. Essentially, they are saying, ‘Every man for himself,’ instead of, ‘What can we do to survive this crisis together?’ Working with each other always leads to better results. The Golden Rule should dictate at times like these as well as every day of our lives.” ABOUT JIM ROBERTS, PH.D. Jim Roberts, Ph.D., The Ben H. Williams Professor of Marketing in Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, is a nationally and internationally recognized expert on consumer behavior and has been quoted extensively in the media. He has appeared on CBS’ Early Show, ABC’s World News Tonight, ABC’s Good Morning America and NBC’s The Today Show. He has been quoted and/or featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, National Public Radio, Cosmopolitan Magazine, Glamour and U.S. News and World Report, among many other newspapers, magazines, websites and television outlets.
It’s here and it’s time America got serious about Covid-19, known as coronavirus. The CDC is working overtime, and leading government health officials are scrambling to ensure hospitals are equipped, front-line health providers are ready and the public is informed. But with any emergency, there comes the risk of misinformation and unnecessary worry. As the new coronavirus outbreak becomes an ever-looming threat in the United States, state infectious disease specialists say the first step to staying safe is this: Remain calm. Also, don’t worry about buying a mask. “You really have to make sure you get the accurate information and not … ‘Lock your doors, close the windows, buy a generator and hope for the best,’” said Dr. Peter Gulick, an infectious disease expert at the Michigan State University's College of Osteopathic Medicine and director of the MSU Internal Medicine Osteopathic Residency program. That’s not only alarmist and bad advice, he said, it’s a waste of energy. The best advice — like these tips from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — is tried-and-true, Gulick said: Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. It’s especially important after using the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing. No soap and water? Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60 percent alcohol. Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands. Avoid close contact with people who are sick. If you’re sick, stay home. Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe. If you think you’ve come in contact with someone with the virus (there have been no confirmed cases yet in Michigan) contact your health provider immediately. February 26 – The Bridge Regrettably, that too can often lead to financial reactions that can ripple across the economy. Lately, the surging stock market has plunged with worries from investors and Wall Street about how America’s workforce will be impacted if the virus spreads. Friday ended the worst week the stock market has had since 2008. NBC News 6 sat down with the Dean of the Broad College of Business at Michigan State University, Sanjay Gupta, to talk more about the stocks and what to expect after this week. “The stock market is clearly spooked, and it has become nervous with whatever is going on in the business world,” said Gupta. What has ‘spooked’ the business world, is COVID-19. “The coronavirus is quarantined lots of factories, in fact the whole country,” said Gutpa. Gutpa says the halt in Chinese manufacturing also limits businesses and goods here in the United States. “In our day to day lives, either there will be some things that we count on that may not be available. It might be that the priciest of those things that we count on change, or go up dramatically because we are so dependent on a foreign source,” said Gutpa. February 29 – WLNS TV Covering an outbreak like Covid-19 isn’t easy, there are multiple angles to explore and it is vital that only the correct facts are shared by media to the millions of viewers, readers and listeners that are waiting for the latest information – and that’s where our experts can help. Sanjay Gupta is the Eli and Edythe L. Broad Dean of the Eli Broad College of Business. He is an expert in the areas of corporate and individual tax policy issues and finance. Peter Gulick is currently an associate professor of medicine at Michigan State University, College of Osteopathic Medicine, and serves as adjunct faculty in the College of Human Medicine and the College of Nursing. Both experts have already been sought out by the media for their expert insight on this issue – if you are interested in arranging an interview, simply click on either expert’s profile to arrange a time today.
Find out how sustainable dining at Georgia Southern provides fresh options for students
As more and more people are eating out – the expectations of customers of restaurants to be environmentally friendly are ever increasing. However, operating with a reduced carbon footprint all the while being sustainable and profitable are no easy task. That’s where Georgia Southern University is making a difference. The newest restaurant on the Georgia Southern University Armstrong Campus offers diners comfort in knowing that some of the ingredients were grown just a few hundred yards away in the campus’ aquaponics farm in the Sustainable Aquaponics Research Center (SARC). The agriculture and food industry is one of the largest users of water and producers of greenhouse gas emissions, but growing food by using aquaponics, a system of growing produce by using water fertilized by fish, cuts down on both significantly. “SARC produce only travels a quarter mile from where it’s grown,” SARC curator Brigette Brinton said. “Locally grown food offers large advantages in terms of increased sustainability and freshness, and SARC produce is grown organically and using sound ecological principles that minimize water consumption.” Brinton said minimizing emissions and water use does not diminish the quality or taste of the produce. To the contrary, it makes the food taste better because aquaponics produce often has higher concentrations of various compounds that give the foods their flavor, and they are grown in more ideal environments. Brzycki said Georgia Southern wants to expand on using ultra-local, fresh produce and vegetables, as a part of the partnership with the aquaponics farm. “When we consider redesigns of existing or new dining locations on the Armstrong Campus in the future, we want to see how we can incorporate these same principles,” he said. “But for now, Southern Cafe is the flagship unit for the aquaponics partnership, as well as sustainability and healthy eating, of Eagle Dining.” Brinton said she hopes the Southern Cafe will inspire the students, faculty and staff who eat there to make healthier and more sustainable choices in other areas of their lives. “Showcasing local, sustainable produce increases students’ awareness that there are better options, and Georgia Southern is going the extra mile to show them how to start making better choices,” she said. “Each time students see they made a sustainable choice at the Southern Cafe, they’re more likely to choose sustainable options on their own.” Are you a journalist looking to cover this story or learn more about how Georgia Southern University is developing new programs that help traditional industries adapt to a more sustainable and environmentally friendly business model? If so – then let our experts help with your coverage. Simply contact Melanie Simón at 912.344.2904 to arrange an interview.
Proposed Fracking Ban Sent to U.S. Congress
If passed, bills introduced to the United States Congress could prevent federal agencies from issuing permits for expanded and new fracking in the country. Fracking is the use of a high-pressure fluid, being forced into a well to fracture or pulverize the rock next to a wellbore, to provide a pathway for oil and natural gas to flow and collect. "It's important for people to understand what fracking is and what it is not, and having an informed public is paramount in a democratic society," says the College of Engineering’s Scott Jackson, PhD, visiting assistant professor of chemical engineering. "There is a way to assure that oil and gas wells can be safely drilled and fracked with minimal impact on the environment." Fracking—a step in completing the installation of a gas or oil well—was first done in the 1940s as part of well stimulation in "tight" rock formations. Initially, it was done only in sandstone, not the shale that most people have heard about. "It has been used for more than 70 years prior to the shale revolution without controversy," Dr. Jackson says. Fracking and directional drilling are key technologies that have made the shale revolution possible; the ability to economically extract it has only come to fruition because of fracking and directional drilling. "The U.S. is now the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas. The shale revolution has driven the switch of electricity production from coal to a more environmentally friendly natural gas," says Dr. Jackson. Fracking has been controversial, and contentions concerning cariogenic chemicals being injected into "our fresh water" have been voiced by environmentalists, activists and the general public. Dr. Jackson says there is some basis for these statements, such as that water used in fracking has mostly undisclosed chemicals in it and that some of those chemicals may be carcinogenic. Because of this, Dr. Jackson says relaxing government oversight cannot be allowed. "Enforcing existing regulations and implementing and enforcing new regulations can only assure that oil and gas wells can be drilled and fracked safely with minimal impact on the environment."
Voters Split on Whether Trump Should be Removed from Office Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has widened his lead to 26 points among Florida voters in the race for the Democratic party’s nomination for president in 2020, according to a statewide survey by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI). Among the Democratic candidates, Biden has increased his support to 42 percent, up from 34 percent in BEPI’s September 2019 poll. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders jumped into second place at 14 percent, while U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren fell to third at 10 percent, down significantly from 24 percent support in September. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg came in fourth at 7 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 6 percent, entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 5 percent and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 3 percent. A majority of Democratic primary voters (54 percent) said they will definitely vote for their top choice, with 46 percent saying there is a chance they could change their minds and vote for someone else. The Florida Democratic primary is March 17. “Joe Biden continues to be in a very strong position in Florida,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the FAU BEPI. “However, it will be interesting to see what impact the early contests in New Hampshire and Iowa will have on voters in Florida regarding their support for Biden.” Sanders fared best among Florida voters in head-to-head matchups against U.S President Donald Trump, with a 53-to-47 percent advantage on the president. Biden and Warren have narrow two-point leads on Trump, 51 to 49 percent, while Buttigieg finished in a 50-50 dead heat with the president. In September, Trump held small leads in each of these head-to-head matchups. With an impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate looming, Florida voters are split on whether Trump should be removed from office, with 51 percent saying he should be removed while 49 percent are against removal. Voters are also split about how their Congress person’s decision whether or not to impeach Trump will affect their support for them as a candidate, with 40 percent saying it will make them less likely to support the candidate, 38 percent saying they would be more likely to support them and 21 percent saying it would have no effect. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has just completed his first year in office, is popular among voters with 48 percent approval and 28 percent disapproval, while 25 percent of voters were neutral or had no opinion. With tensions rising with Iran, 61 percent of voters do not think the U.S. is going to get into a war with Iran, while 39 percent think recent military action will lead to war. Trump’s approval rating is slightly above water among Florida voters, with 45 percent approval and 43 disapproval. He continues to be hugely popular among GOP voters, with a 66-point lead on his Republican rivals, former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh and former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld. “Floridians are deeply divided on the president and on impeachment,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative. “Nonetheless, Mr. Trump continues to perform better in Florida than in national polls.” The survey was conducted Jan. 9-12 and polled 1,285 Florida registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The margin of error for both the Republican primary and the Democratic primary is +/- 4.4 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, education, party affiliation, region and gender based on a 2016 voter model. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Dynata. Are you a journalist covering the role Florida will play in the upcoming election? If so, let our experts help with your coverage. Kevin Wagner's research and teaching interests include presidential and judicial politics, political behavior and legislative behavior. Monica Escaleras is the Director of the Business and Economics Polling Initiative at Florida Atlantic University. Both experts are available to speak with reporters - simply click on either icon to arrange an interview.
Villanova Experts Reflect on the 2010s
The iPad. Hurricane Sandy. Affordable Care Act. #MeToo. Brexit. Streaming services. Since 2010, there have been so many memorable and historic events that have shifted culture and society into unfamiliar territory around the world. Two Villanova experts have put together thoughts on a few of the decade's top stories that will continue to be relevant for the next ten years—and beyond. Stephen Strader, assistant professor of geography and the environment Over the last decade we have seen the issue of anthropogenic or human-induced climate change shift from something discussed between select, interested scientists to the front page of the news on a daily basis. This dramatic change in the importance and coverage of climate change makes complete sense given six of the last ten years globally have been in the top ten warmest on record. Actually, it's very likely, if not certain, that the last five years will be the hottest globally on record. The odds of that happening naturally are very close to zero. Nowhere have the effects of a changing climate been realized more so than in the western United States, where wildfires have wreaked havoc year after year in the 2010s. States such as California, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Washington all experienced record-breaking wildfires over the last decade. Specifically, the Camp Fire in 2018 became the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history, destroying 18,000-plus homes and killing 85 people in the town of Paradise. Additionally: Hurricanes Dorian, Irma, Harvey, Maria, etc. damaged entire countries (Puerto Rico and Bahamas) so much that there is question whether they will ever recover from the effects. The deadliest tornado season on record occurred in 2011, including the devastating April 27, 2011, tornado outbreak and the deadliest U.S. tornado in modern history, which struck Joplin, Missouri (158 fatalities). Between 2011 and 2017, drought and water shortages impacted the western U.S., with California seeing its worst drought in history (or worst in 1,200 years). The drought killed 100-plus million trees and resulted in water shortages that affected crops and caused municipalities to limit water use. Record-setting rainfall and floods occurred in locations such as Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, etc., resulting in hundreds dead and millions of dollars in crop losses. If the last 10 years have taught scientists, climatologists, policy makers and the general public anything, it's that we have our work cut out for us if we are to reverse this trend of increasing disasters around the world. The atmosphere continues to warm, and all model projections point to a progressively warmer future Earth if action is not taken. And this action can't be tomorrow or by 2025, 2050 or some other arbitrary year; it has to happen now if we want to reduce future economic and societal losses. Yes, it's easy to be afraid and fearful of the future when all we see as scientists and citizens are rising temperatures, deadlier disasters and a lack of drastic climate action. However, we can't let this fear result in crippling inaction; we have to let it motivate us to fight, not for just our futures but our children's, grandchildren's and great-grandchildren's futures. Let's give them a chance to see the world the way we used to: beautiful. Jerusha Conner, associate professor of education and counseling The latter half of this decade witnessed a resurgence of student activism, sparked by Black Lives Matter protests and the dramatic events at the University of Missouri in the fall of 2015. Highlighting 2015 as a pivotal year for student activism, the authors of the American Freshman National Norms survey deemed the 2015 freshman class "the most ambitious" group in 49 years of the survey's administration in terms of their expectations for participating in protests, connecting to their communities and influencing the political structure; and the numbers of freshmen who report having participated in demonstrations as high school seniors has ticked up every year since. In my own research with college student activists in 2016, I found three striking trends: Nearly half came to college already seeing themselves as activists; only 10% consider themselves single-issue activists (with more than half identifying seven or more issues their activism addressed); and a significant share were not protesting their own institution's policies or practices, but instead concerning themselves with broader social and political issues. They are what I call "outward-facing activists," who use their campuses to stage and mobilize campaigns, rather than as the targets of their change efforts. In the last couple of years, we have seen activism among high school students take off, as students have staged walkouts and school strikes to protest inaction on climate change and gun violence. Although these movements may appear narrowly focused on a single issue, the students involved have intentionally advanced an intersectional perspective, which draws attention to the racialized, economic and gendered dimensions of the multifaceted problems they are seeking to address. Digital natives, these young people have deployed the affordances of social media not only to mobilize their peers in large-scale collective action, but also to attract and sustain the attention of the media, pressure business leaders and politicians and shape public understanding of the issues. One interesting shift with this generation of student activists is that, rather than turning their backs on the system or seeking to upend it, they are focused on enhancing voter registration and turnout, especially among young people. And their efforts appear to be working. Youth turnout in the 2018 midterms was double that of 2014, and record numbers of youth are continuing to register to vote. As the decade comes to a close and the 2020 campaign season revs up, the engagement of student activists in electoral politics will be important to continue to track.
Lake Victoria, the largest lake on the African continent and the largest tropical lake in the world, has the potential to dry up more quickly than researchers previously realized, and the White Nile tributary (the only outlet for Lake Victoria) could disappear within a decade, according to a new study published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. The drying up of these bodies of water, which the project’s researchers say is driven by climate change, could be devastating to large swaths of East Africa and millions of people, according to the study, “Rapid Pleistocene desiccation and the future of Africa's Lake Victoria.” Baylor University faculty members Daniel J. Peppe, Ph.D., associate professor of geosciences, and Joseph D. White, Ph.D., professor of biology in Baylor University’s College of Arts & Sciences, were part of a team of researchers led by Emily Beverly, Ph.D., assistant professor of sedimentary geology at the University of Houston. Beverly earned her doctoral degree in geology at Baylor in 2015. The research team developed a model for Lake Victoria to help understand how changes in rainfall and temperature, due to climate change, would affect the future of the lake. They discovered that relatively small changes in climate could cause lake levels to drop rapidly. “Using future climate projections, our model also predicts that at current rates of temperature change and previous rates of lake level fall, Lake Victoria could have no outlet to the White Nile within 10 years, and Kenya could lose access to the lake in less than 400 years, which would significantly affect the economic resources supplied by Lake Victoria to the East African community,” the researchers wrote. Water Budget Model Peppe said he and his colleagues developed a water budget model for Lake Victoria in Kenya that examines how changes in rainfall and temperature cause changes in water levels in the lake. “Modeling indicates Lake Victoria can transition back and forth between modern lake levels and being completely dried up in centuries to a few millennia,” Peppe said. The water budget model used information related to: The lake’s size The catchment area, which drains into the lake How much water enters the lake The flow out of the lake Modern climate to estimate lake evaporation Discharge out of the lake and the size of lake The model showed the desiccation and refilling of Lake Victoria can happen over short periods and is directly tied to the mean annual precipitation levels and associated runoff. The research team was also able to use the model to predict the effects of future climate change on Lake Victoria. “We input different climate parameters in the model based on past reconstructions and future projections to see what happened to lake levels in the past and what will happen in the future,” Peppe said. Combined observations from this new modeling and estimates of ancient precipitation indicate that Lake Victoria was likely dried up between 36,000 to 100,000 years ago, Peppe said. “As Lake Victoria dried up, this affected the dispersal patterns of early modern humans and other mammals as grasslands expanded with the retreat of the lake,” he said. Repercussions of Disappearance Peppe said the disappearance of the White Nile could have broad repercussions, including depriving Uganda of its primary source of electricity via hydropower and the water that sustains the Nile during non-flood stages. “In addition, every major port city around Lake Victoria could become landlocked in as little as 100 years. In 400 years, Kenya would have no access to the lake while Uganda and Tanzania would gain huge areas of potential farmland setting up a potentially dangerous dynamic between countries that currently fight over the lucrative fishing rights to the lake,” Peppe said. The researchers wrote that additional regional climate modeling is urgently needed to understand the effects of climate change on the region. ABOUT THE STUDY The new study, “Rapid Pleistocene desiccation and the future of Africa's Lake Victoria,” is published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. The research team was led by Emily J. Beverly, Ph.D., assistant professor of sedimentary geology at the University of Houston; Joseph D. White, Ph.D., professor of biology in Baylor University’s College of Arts & Sciences; Daniel J. Peppe, Ph.D., associate professor of geosciences in Baylor University’s College of Arts & Sciences; J. Tyler Faith, Ph.D., assistant professor of anthropology, at University of Utah; Nick Blegen, Ph.D., Royal Society Eric Shooter International Fellow, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge; and Christian A. Tryon, Ph.D., professor of anthropology, University of Connecticut. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 17,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s oldest and largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and seven academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit www.baylor.edu/artsandsciences.
