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FAU Data Analysis: Falling Rates Bring Some Relief to Banks

Falling interest rates brought some relief to banks’ portfolios for unrealized losses on investment securities, according to a data analysis from a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University. Only two banks with assets over $1 billion reported unbooked securities losses greater than their total equity in the first quarter of 2025, down from three in the last quarter of 2024, according to the U.S. Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Investment Securities screener. For unbooked losses equal to 50% of Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1) equity, 24 banks were on the list for the first quarter of this year, down from 34 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Rates dropped from the end of 2024 through the end of March, providing some relief to banks that had extensive interest rate risk in their investment securities portfolios. The yield on the 10-year treasury bond fell from 4.57 to 4.25 as of the end of March. “While this would appear to be good news for the U.S. banking industry, with unrealized securities losses declining by $69 billion from the end of 2024 to March, rates have climbed back to where they were at the end of 2024 so that losses today would be back up close to $500 billion,” said Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in the College of Business. The aggregate unbooked securities losses on bank balance sheets declined by $69 billion from $483 billion at the end of the fourth quarter in 2024 to $414 billion at the end of the first quarter this year. The quarterly U.S. Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Investment Securities Screener, produced as part of The Banking Initiative in FAU’s College of Business, measures banks’ exposure to risk based on their unrealized losses in their investment securities portfolios. To calculate a bank’s risk, Cole uses the most recently available data from quarterly call reports published by the U.S. Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. Of the 4,543 banks reporting in the first quarter for this year, Cole focused on 1,042 banks with more than $1 billion in assets to calculate unrealized losses on investment securities and compare those losses to a bank’s CET1. Regulators would force a bank that lost half of its CET1 capital to take remedial actions, such as raising new capital or seeking a merger partner; in the worst case, a bank may face closure by the FDIC. “It’s likely that unbooked losses will continue to grow as interest rates continue to move higher” Cole said. “Both the 50-day and 200-day moving average rate on the 10-Year Treasury bond are rising so losses are growing, not shrinking. And this is only one part of banks’ balance sheets that are suffering from rising rates. There also are massive unrealized losses on banks’ residential and commercial mortgage portfolios that total to another $500 billion.” Looking to know more? We can help. Rebel Cole is available to speak with media about banking and the impact on interest rates. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Digital Dementia: Does Technology Use by ‘Digital Pioneers’ Correlate to Cognitive Decline?

As the first generation that interacted with digital technology reaches an age where dementia risks emerge, scientists have asked the question: Is there a correlation between digital technology use and an increased risk of dementia? With the phrases “brain rot” and “brain drain” circulating on social media, it would appear that most people would assume the answer is yes. However, a new study in Nature Human Behavior by neuroscientists at Baylor University and the University of Texas at Austin Dell Medical School reveals the opposite – digital technologies are actually associated with reduced cognitive decline. The study – A meta-analysis of technology use and cognitive aging – was sparked by the ongoing concern about the passive activity of digital technologies and their relation to accelerating risks of dementia. Study co-authors are Jared F. Benge, Ph.D., clinical neuropsychologist and associate professor of neurology at Dell Medical School and UT Health Austin’s Comprehensive Memory Center within the Mulva Clinic for the Neurosciences, and Michael K. Scullin, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at Baylor. “You can flip on the news on just about any day and you’ll see people talking about how technologies are harming us,” Scullin said. “People often use the terms ‘brain drain’ and ‘brain rot,’ and now digital dementia is an emerging phrase. As researchers, we wanted to know if this was true.” The “digital dementia” hypothesis predicts that a lifetime of exposure to digital technology will worsen cognitive abilities. On the contrary, the study’s findings challenge this hypothesis, indicating instead that engagement with digital technology fosters cognitive resilience in these adults. Reviewing more than 136 studies with data that encompassed over 400,000 adults, and longitudinal studies with an average of 6 years of follow-up data, Scullin and Benge found compelling evidence that digital technology use is associated with better cognitive aging outcomes, rather than harm. The researchers’ study supported the “technological reserve” hypothesis, finding that digital technologies can promote behaviors that preserve cognition. In fact, their study revealed that digital technology use correlates with a 58% lower risk of cognitive impairment. This pattern of cognitive protection persisted when the researchers controlled for socioeconomic status, education, age, gender, baseline cognitive ability, social support, overall health, and engagement with mental activities like reading that might have explained the findings. Increase in problem-solving skills Scullin said that for some, these findings are surprising as technology use is often associated with being sedentary both physically and mentally. However, for the current generation of older adults who were introduced to the first technological advancements – computers, the Internet and smartphones – past their childhood, using technology is cognitively challenging because it is everchanging. “One of the first things that middle-age and older adults were saying is that ‘I’m so frustrated by this computer. This is hard to learn.’ That's actually a reflection of the cognitive challenge, which may be beneficial for the brain even if it doesn’t feel great in the moment.” Scullin said. Technology requires constant adaption, he said, such as understanding new software updates, troubleshooting Internet loss or filtering out website ads. “If you’re doing that for years and you’re really engaging with it, even though you might experience frustration, that may be a sign of you exercising your brain,” he said. Social connection Technology also enables communication and engagement like never before, which can expand opportunities for connectivity. Video calls, emails and messaging apps help maintain social networks, especially for people who would not otherwise regularly see their family members. “Now you can connect with families across generations,” Scullin said. “You not only can talk to them, you can see them. You can share pictures. You can exchange emails and it's all within a second or less. So that means there's a greater opportunity for decreasing loneliness.” Better social connectedness is a well-documented correlate of cognitive functioning in older adults, providing a link between decreased isolation from digital technologies and reduced risks of dementia. Impact of “digital scaffolding” A dementia diagnosis is indicated in part when cognitive changes lead to a loss of independence with daily tasks. Tools such as digital reminders, GPS navigation and online banking allow older adults to remain independent despite cognitive difficulties through digital scaffolding. According to the research article, this digital scaffold “facilitates better functional outcomes in older adults while general cognitive functioning declines.” Technologies can serve as a compensatory support system to maintain general independence and reduce the risk of a dementia diagnosis even with the presence of some cognitive decline. “As clinical practice continues to move toward an individualized, precision-medicine approach, it will be necessary for the field to identify for whom and for how long, such digital scaffolding is effective,” the researchers said. Promoting healthy technology use While Scullin recognizes the negative effects of technology, such as distracted driving or using technology over consistent face-to-face interaction, he also emphasizes how promoting a healthy use of digital tools in older adults is beneficial for their cognitive health. “If you have a parent or grandparent who’s just staying away from technology, maybe revisit that. Could they learn to use photo, messaging, or calendar apps on a smartphone or tablet? Start simple and be very patient while they learn,” he said. Social media use is another highly debated topic in terms of cognitive effects. While he says it’s hard to predict the cognitive effects of endlessly scrolling on TikTok, Scullin does argue that generating videos through creative cognition could be beneficial. In addition, he said that interacting with communities online can provide benefits by forming social connections. “We could spend a long time talking about all the specific ways in which technology use can be bad. However, the net effect since the 1990s has been positive for overall cognition in older adults,” he said. FUNDING The study was supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health (R01AG082783; M.K.S., J.F.B.). Michael Scullin was named Baylor’s inaugural Newsmaker of the Year in 2018, after his “to-do list” research was widely covered by media outlets, including ABC’s Good Morning America, TODAY.com, USA TODAY, Discover, LiveScience, HealthDay, BBC Radio and many more, reaching an international circulation and viewership of nearly 1 billion people. Looking to interview or chat with Michael Scullin? Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Decoding the Future of AI: From Disruption to Democratisation and Beyond

The global AI landscape has become a melting pot for innovation, with diverse thinking pushing the boundaries of what is possible. Its application extends beyond just technology, reshaping traditional business models and redefining how enterprises, governments, and societies operate. Advancements in model architectures, training techniques and the proliferation of open-source tools are lowering barriers to entry, enabling organisations of all sizes to develop competitive AI solutions with significantly fewer resources. As a result, the long-standing notion that AI leadership is reserved for entities with vast computational and financial resources is being challenged. This shift is also redrawing the global AI power balance, with a decentralised approach to AI where competition and collaboration coexist across different regions. As AI development becomes more distributed, investment strategies, enterprise innovation and global technological leadership are being reshaped. However, established AI powerhouses still wield significant leverage, driving an intense competitive cycle of rapid innovation. Amid this acceleration, it is critical to distinguish true technological breakthroughs from over-hyped narratives, adopting a measured, data-driven approach that balances innovation with demonstrable business value and robust ethical AI guardrails. Implications of the Evolving AI Landscape The democratisation of AI advancements, intensifying competitive pressures, the critical need for efficiency and sustainability, evolving geopolitical dynamics and the global race for skilled talent are all fuelling the development of AI worldwide. These dynamics are paving the way for a global balance of technological leadership. Democratisation of AI Potential The ability to develop competitive AI models at lower costs is not only broadening participation but also reshaping how AI is created, deployed and controlled. Open-source AI fosters innovation by enabling startups, researchers, and enterprises to collaborate and iterate rapidly, leading to diverse applications across industries. For example, xAI has made a significant move in the tech world by open sourcing its Grok AI chatbot model, potentially accelerating the democratisation of AI and fostering innovation. However, greater accessibility can also introduce challenges, including risks of misuse, uneven governance, and concerns over intellectual property. Additionally, as companies strategically leverage open-source AI to influence market dynamics, questions arise about the evolving balance between open innovation and proprietary control. Increased Competitive Pressure The AI industry is fuelled by a relentless drive to stay ahead of the competition, a pressure felt equally by Big Tech and startups. This is accelerating the release of new AI services, as companies strive to meet growing consumer demand for intelligent solutions. The risk of market disruption is significant; those who lag, face being eclipsed by more agile players. To survive and thrive, differentiation is paramount. Companies are laser-focused on developing unique AI capabilities and applications, creating a marketplace where constant adaptation and strategic innovation are crucial for success. Resource Optimisation and Sustainability The trend toward accessible AI necessitates resource optimisation, which means developing models with significantly less computational power, energy consumption and training data. This is not just about cost; it is crucial for sustainability. Training large AI models is energy-intensive; for example, training GPT-3, a 175-billion-parameter model, is believed to have consumed 1,287 MWh of electricity, equivalent to an average American household’s use over 120 years1. This drives innovation in model compression, transfer learning, and specialised hardware, like NVIDIA’s TensorRT. Small language models (SLMs) are a key development, offering comparable performance to larger models with drastically reduced resource needs. This makes them ideal for edge devices and resource-constrained environments, furthering both accessibility and sustainability across the AI lifecycle. Multifaceted Global AI Landscape The global AI landscape is increasingly defined by regional strengths and priorities. The US, with its strength in cloud infrastructure and software ecosystem, leads in “short-chain innovation”, rapidly translating AI research into commercial products. Meanwhile, China excels in “long-chain innovation”, deeply integrating AI into its extended manufacturing and industrial processes. Europe prioritises ethical, open and collaborative AI, while the APAC counterparts showcase a diversity of approaches. Underlying these regional variations is a shared trajectory for the evolution of AI, increasingly guided by principles of responsible AI: encompassing ethics, sustainability and open innovation, although the specific implementations and stages of advancement differ across regions. The Critical Talent Factor The evolving AI landscape necessitates a skilled workforce. Demand for professionals with expertise in AI and machine learning, data analysis, and related fields is rapidly increasing. This creates a talent gap that businesses must address through upskilling and reskilling initiatives. For example, Microsoft has launched an AI Skills Initiative, including free coursework and a grant program, to help individuals and organisations globally develop generative AI skills. What does this mean for today’s enterprise? New Business Horizons AI is no longer just an efficiency tool; it is a catalyst for entirely new business models. Enterprises that rethink their value propositions through AI-driven specialisation will unlock niche opportunities and reshape industries. In financial services, for example, AI is fundamentally transforming operations, risk management, customer interactions, and product development, leading to new levels of efficiency, personalisation and innovation. Navigating AI Integration and Adoption Integrating AI is not just about deployment; it is about ensuring enterprises are structurally prepared. Legacy IT architectures, fragmented data ecosystems and rigid workflows can hinder the full potential of AI. Organisations must invest in cloud scalability, intelligent automation and agile operating models to make AI a seamless extension of their business. Equally critical is ensuring workforce readiness, which involves strategically embedding AI literacy across all organisational functions and proactively reskilling talent to collaborate effectively with intelligent systems. Embracing Responsible AI Ethical considerations, data security and privacy are no longer afterthoughts but are becoming key differentiators. Organisations that embed responsible AI principles at the core of their strategy, rather than treating them as compliance check boxes, will build stronger customer trust and long-term resilience. This requires proactive bias mitigation, explainable AI frameworks, robust data governance and continuous monitoring for potential risks. Call to Action: Embracing a Balanced Approach The AI revolution is underway. It demands a balanced and proactive response. Enterprises must invest in their talent and reskilling initiatives to bridge the AI skills gap, modernise their infrastructure to support AI integration and scalability and embed responsible AI principles at the core of their strategy, ensuring fairness, transparency and accountability. Simultaneously, researchers must continue to push the boundaries of AI’s potential while prioritising energy efficiency and minimising environmental impact; policymakers must create frameworks that foster responsible innovation and sustainable growth. This necessitates combining innovative research with practical enterprise applications and a steadfast commitment to ethical and sustainable AI principles. The rapid evolution of AI presents both an imperative and an opportunity. The next chapter of AI will be defined by those who harness its potential responsibly while balancing technological progress with real-world impact. Resources Sudhir Pai: Executive Vice President and Chief Technology & Innovation Officer, Global Financial Services, Capgemini Professor Aleks Subic: Vice-Chancellor and Chief Executive, Aston University, Birmingham, UK Alexeis Garcia Perez: Professor of Digital Business & Society, Aston University, Birmingham, UK Gareth Wilson: Executive Vice President | Global Banking Industry Lead, Capgemini 1 https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/researchers-claim-they-can-cut-ai-training-energy-demands-by-75/?itm_source=Bibblio&itm_campaign=Bibblio-related&itm_medium=Bibblio-article-related

Data Analysis: Commercial Real Estate Troubles Threaten U.S. Banks

The U.S. banking system is on a precipice as exposures to commercial real estate grow and banks grapple with high interest rates, according to an analysis by a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University. Of the 158 largest banks, 59 in the country are facing exposures to commercial real estate greater than 300% of their total equity capital, as reported in the fourth quarter 2024 regulatory data and shown by the U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Commercial Real Estate screener. “Regulators have been putting pressure on banks to reduce their exposures. However, it’s a very difficult thing to do without sending a signal of weakness to the market and creating more problems,” said Rebel A. Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in FAU’s College of Business. “To get around this, many banks are ‘extending and pretending’ by restructuring their loans.” The U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Real Estate screener, a part of the Banking Initiative at Florida Atlantic University, measures the risk to exposure from commercial real estate at the 158 largest banks in the country with more than $10 billion in total assets. Using publicly available data released quarterly from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) Central Data Repository, Cole calculates each bank’s total CRE exposure as a percentage of the bank’s total equity. Bank regulators view any ratio over 300% as excess exposure to CRE, which puts the bank at greater risk of failure. Troubled debt restructuring for commercial construction, multifamily, owner-occupied and owner-non-occupied mortgages tripled since 2023. They reached $18 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $6 billion in Q2 2023, according to data from the FFIEC. While non-owner occupied nonfarm, non-residential accounts for more than half of these amounts, there is also serious deterioration in multifamily and commercial construction loans. “Banks choose to extend these loans, hoping interest rates might drop. While the Fed did cut rates,” Cole said. “If a loan is maturing from five years ago in today’s rate environment, rather than refinance it with today’s terms, they will restructure the loan under the same terms from five years ago for another year. This all depends on interest rates falling, which is not likely to happen this year.” Among banks of any size, 1,788 have total CRE exposures greater than 300%, up from 1,697 in Q3; 1,077 have exposures greater than 400%, up from 971 in Q3; 504 have exposures greater than 500%, up from 426 in Q3; 216 have exposures greater than 600%, up from 166 in Q3. For comparison, the aggregate industry total CRE exposure is 132% of the total, unchanged from the third quarter of 2024. Looking to know more? We can help. Rebel Cole is available to speak with media about commercial real estate and the potential threats to the American banking system, Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Expert Q&A - Craig Albert, PhD, talks election interference

Going into the final days of the 2024 election cycle there is a very real concern about election interference from both foreign and domestic actors, and it's something that will continue to be monitored even after the final votes are tallied. Craig Albert, PhD, graduate director of the PhD in Intelligence, Defense, and Cybersecurity Policy and Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies programs at Augusta University, is a leading expert on propaganda, information warfare and national security studies. Albert has answered key questions about who is trying to interfere in the U.S. elections and why it matters. Q: How and when should someone vote and does it protect you more to avoid interference? The access to instantaneous news or events could affect people and their understanding of whom they want to vote for all the way up until the day they vote. Because of this ease of access, this election cycle has especially shown us how cautious we need to be in regards to scams. It's also why I know there has been a big push for early voting and mail-in voting, and it's necessary in some cases, but I prefer to vote on Election Day because you never know what type of news might come out about one of the candidates or parties. If something comes out that proves to be true, it could affect how someone might vote, but if you voted before Election Day, it's too late. At the same time, a very serious deepfake could be released that could manipulate how people choose to vote and it could mislead people, as well. Q: What are the consequences of the optics of an 'unfair' election? What the U.S. needs to be cautious about is preserving and maintaining the legitimacy of the election cycle. After the election, no matter who wins, narratives of interference and how it impacted the election are going to be shared and that's just irresponsible. Unless there's damning information and very clear evidence, you shouldn't mess around with the idea that the election was interfered with, because that could threaten the very structure of the United States. Q: What's the potential for post-election meddling? We have domestic bad actors as well as foreign maligned actors that are going to say the election was delegitimized no matter who wins. They have social media campaigns ready to post no matter which side wins, they're going to circulate false videos of ballot boxes burning or news that not all the the votes were counted and things of that nature. They're going to do all kinds of things because anybody can fake a ballot box being burned or mail in votes not being counted properly on video or something like that. The problem is if it goes out there or becomes viral, so many people will believe it and that sows discord. So, that creates distrust in the public system on a pretty big swath of the American population. Q: Who benefits from post-election doubts and chaos? You have foreign actors that really build on the type of anger that the political candidates and their parties already use through their propaganda and rhetoric. We have already seen Russia amplifying the message that somebody cheated or elections were hacked, and you have China, Iran, Venezuela, ISIS and Al Qaeda doing that, as well. You also have regular cyber criminals that just want to sew discord and distress so they can manipulate people later on and get into our banking systems and things of that nature. You have potentially hundreds, if not thousands of attack vectors coming at the United States between election night and January 20 when the new President will be sworn in. And then afterwards, they will all still be trying to create chaos, rebellion, civil unrest, or in the case of Iran, China and Russia, open civil war in the United States. Looking to know more and covering the election, Augusta University can help. Albert is available to speak with media – simply click on his name to arrange an interview today.

Welcome to Retire with Equity: Where a New Retirement Journey Begins

Summary: A recent study reveals that 40% of Canadians over 50 feel financially unprepared for retirement. Retire with Equity aims to address this issue by educating retirees on the importance of leveraging home equity. The initiative emphasizes transparency, financial literacy, and personalized guidance to help seniors make informed decisions and achieve financial security in retirement. According to a recent National Institute of Aging study, almost 40% of Canadians over ​50 feel they are not financially ​prepared for retirement.  As a seasoned citizen myself, I know we can do better.  That's why we've created Retire with Equity.  It's time to help Canadians get the knowledge they need to make more informed financial decisions. My observations from my time in the industry, enriched by the research I've done over the past few years, clearly reveal a growing retirement crisis in Canada. I've worked in the banking and mortgage industry for over 25 years, specializing in equity lending, and spent the last 6 years as an executive at Canada’s largest Reverse Mortgage bank.  Many people are struggling with mounting debt and no company pension.  And they are living longer. Additionally, the long-term care situation in Canada has many seniors looking to age in place in their homes. Strategies like downsizing and moving in with family are often too simplistic and have little appeal to today's seniors.  Some eventually, often begrudgingly, turn to home equity options such as reverse mortgages as a solution. However, Canadians are conservative by nature, and many think it is taboo to touch their equity (nest egg). Consequently, a reverse mortgage is a last resort. 76% of people over 65 are homeowners, many of which have built up a substantial amount of equity yet cannot afford to retire. (Source: Statistics Canada) Income is the only way to solve the retirement crisis. Many are choosing to work longer to delay spending savings. Some need to pay off debt to eliminate payments that will free up cash flow. Others do not have enough savings to retire. I saw the stress this caused watching my Mother “do without” in her retirement.  With the benefit of experience, I now know there was a better way for her to finance her golden years. The Retirement Problem in Canada is Dire Many 55+ Seniors Don’t Have the Funds They Need: Many need an adequate budget and financial plan. And many don’t fully realize that employer and government pensions will fall short of their cashflow needs. Home Equity Unlocks Opportunities, But It's Misunderstood: Many retirees don’t fully understand the short—and long-term impacts of their home equity financing decisions. They rely on biased, incomplete,  anecdotal information from friends and family. Seniors Need to Be Cautious: Homeowners are especially vulnerable targets for misinformation and fraud. However, this demographic does not have time to recover from a financial mistake. Making the wrong choices that affect how they finance retirement and protect themselves could leave seniors without enough money later when they need cash for costly expenses like health care. The Financial Industry Needs to Do More: There is a need for unbiased, transparent, and trusted sources of information on home equity options that are aligned with consumer interests. Gone are the days of cookie-cutter retirement plans and guaranteed pensions. Every Canadian needs to proactively craft their unique vision and path for retirement.  Banking on My Experience The Retire With Equity mission is dedicated to helping retirees find the right combination of financial strategies to achieve their goals. The Equity Advantage One of the standout features of Retire with Equity's approach is our focus on home equity as a key component of retirement planning. For many Canadians, their home is their most significant asset, and unlocking its potential can be a game-changer. Whether through downsizing, refinancing, or reverse mortgages, Retire with Equity will offer guidance on integrating this valuable resource into a retirement strategy. The Human Touch At Retire with Equity, we promise to offer straightforward advice with a personal touch. It's not just about the numbers – it’s also about the dreams you have for retirement.  We will bring patience, empathy, and respect to every conversation. And we won't forget our sense of humour, as retirement is supposed to be fun.  We're committed to making things easy to access and understand, no matter where you are in life.  Education is Everything Two of our core values are empowering education and epic transparency. Our online resources, webinars, and workshops will be tailored to demystify the world of finance for retirees and soon-to-be retirees, increasing their financial literacy. We will bring transparency to the vital information reserved for the small print, answering the questions retirees don't even know to ask. Whether you're a financial guru or just starting to think about your nest egg, we'll have something for you. A Senior-Friendly Approach Our approach will integrate technology with a user-friendly interface so that retirees can access their services without hassle. Gone are the worries of getting stuck in the weeds of complex interfaces or endless financial jargon. We bring "kitchen table" logic when explaining all financial details, no matter how complex the concept is. Stories that Inspire From coast to coast, Retire with Equity will share personal stories that help educate and motivate Canadians. We want to show you visible proof that it's always possible to rethink and revitalize retirement plans. Hearing from fellow Canadians who have successfully navigated the retirement waters offers hope for those still planning their way. Feelings of guilt and shame are common among retirees searching for retirement options. Learning about countless other retirees in similar situations often alleviates this guilt and shame.  Join the Revolution Retire with Equity is more than just a company—it’s a movement. Canadians across the country will join in and transform their retirement years into the best chapter of their lives. Empowered by new tools and expertise at their fingertips, they will not just survive but truly thrive in retirement. As an "Equity Advocate," I pledge to help Canadians navigate the complexities of retirement in ways that educate, inspire, and entertain.  I look forward to the conversation.  Please subscribe to our regular updates and follow us on social media.  Here's to the best years ahead! Don't Retire---Re-Wire! Sue

Villanova Professor at the Forefront of Work to Tackle Quantum Threats

Securing Our Future Against Quantum Threats Security and privacy are values that everyone cherishes. No tech user wants their personal information getting into the wrong hands, which is why we have security measures in place to protect our private data: face ID to unlock our phones, two-factor authentication to log into banking apps and fingerprint technology to securely enter any system—from a computer to your front door. Encryption codes are used on each of these platforms to encode private data and allow only authorized users to access it. These measures are put in place to protect us, but new advancements in technology could soon challenge these secure systems that we have come to know and trust. Quantum computers are extraordinary machines capable of solving problems far beyond the scope of today’s standard computers. Although these computers are not commercially available, scientists harness their power for experimentation and data storage. Quantum computers excel in scientific development, but they may also prove to be a threat to existing technology that we use in our daily lives. Experts predict that by 2035, quantum computers could crack the very encryption codes that secure everyday transactions and data. Jiafeng Xie, PhD, associate professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Villanova University, is at the forefront of this battle, using his Security and Cryptography Lab to strengthen security measures against the threat of quantum computers. The Rise of Post-Quantum Cryptography Since quantum computer advancements are accelerating at an unprecedented pace, post-quantum cryptography (PQC) has emerged as a critical area of research and development. Scientists who study PQC are working to come up with new algorithms to encode our sensitive data, with a goal of being installed after quantum computers crack our current encryption systems. Without these new algorithms, once quantum computers break our current codes, sensitive data—whether personal, corporate or governmental—could be left vulnerable to malicious actors. The core problem of our current encryption system lies in the foundation of public-key cryptosystems. Public-key cryptography is a method of encryption where the user logs into a system using their own private “key”, and the back end of the system has a “key” as well. A “key” is a large numerical value that scrambles data so that it appears random. When a user logs in, their “key” can decrypt private information held by the public “key” in the system to ensure a secure login. This security method is safe right now, but these systems rely on mathematical principles that, while secure against classical computing attacks, are vulnerable to the immense processing power of quantum computers. At the heart of the vulnerability is Shor's algorithm, developed by MIT computer scientist Peter Shor in 1994. As Dr. Xie explained, “Shor invented an algorithm to solve prime factors of an integer that can supposedly run on a quantum computer. This algorithm, if run on a large-scale mature quantum computer, can easily solve all these existing cryptosystems' mathematical formulation, which is a problem." The realization of this potential threat has spurred an increased focus on the development of post-quantum cryptography over the past decade. The goal is clear: "We want to have some sort of cryptosystem that is resistant to quantum computer attacks," says Dr. Xie. In 2016, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) began the process of standardizing post-quantum cryptography. In July 2022, NIST selected four algorithms to continue on to the standardization process, where they are currently being tested for safety and security against quantum computers. The standardization process for these new algorithms is intensive, and two of the candidates that were announced for testing have already been broken during the process. Scientists are in a race against time to increase the diversity of their algorithms and come up with alternate options for standardization. The urgency of this shift to post-quantum cryptography is underscored by recent government action. The White House released a national security memo in 2022 stating that the U.S. government must transition to quantum-resistant algorithms by 2035. This directive emphasizes the critical nature of post-quantum cryptography in maintaining not just personal but national security. Villanova’s Security and Cryptography Lab Once a new algorithm is selected by NIST, it will need to be embedded into various platforms that need to be secured—this is where Dr. Xie’s Security and Cryptography Lab comes in. This lab is actively conducting research into how the newly selected algorithm can be implemented in the most effective and resourceful way. The lab team is working on developing techniques for this new algorithm so that it can be embedded into many different types of platforms, including credit cards and fingerprint technology. However, there are significant challenges in this process. As Dr. Xie explains, "Different platforms have different constraints. A chip-based credit card, for example, has limited space for embedding new encryption systems. If the implementation technique is too large, it simply won’t work.” Another arising issue from this research is security. During the application of this new algorithm, there's a risk of information or security leakage, so Dr. Xie is always on the lookout for developing security issues that could cause problems down the road. The Future of Post-Quantum Cryptography The implications of PQC are widespread and extend far beyond academic research. As Dr. Xie points out, "All existing cryptosystems, as long as they have some sort of function—for example, signing in or entering a password for login—all of these systems are vulnerable to quantum attacks." This vulnerability affects everything from banking systems to small-scale security measures like fingerprint door locks. The scope of this transition is massive, requiring updates to encrypted systems across all sectors of technology. His goal is to ensure that these new cryptographic systems are flexible enough to be applied to everything from small devices like credit cards and drones to large-scale infrastructure like data centers and military equipment. Although researchers are hard at work now, the future of post-quantum cryptography is not without uncertainties. Dr. Xie raises an important question: "When quantum computers become available, will the algorithms we develop today be broken?" While the newly developed algorithms will theoretically be secure, vulnerabilities can emerge when implementing any kind of new security system. These potential vulnerabilities highlight the importance of conducting this research now so that the new algorithms can go through intensive testing prior to being implemented. Despite these challenges, Dr. Xie emphasizes the importance of being prepared for this new reality. "Society as a whole needs to be prepared with this kind of knowledge,” he says. “A new era is coming. With our current security systems, we need to have revolutionized change. On the other hand, we should not be panicked. We just need continued support to do more related research in this field.” More extensive research is required to ensure that our privacy is protected as we enter a new era of quantum computing, but labs like the Security and Cryptography Lab at Villanova are a step in the right direction. Although the “years to quantum” clock is ticking down, researchers like Dr. Xie are well on their way to ensuring that our digital infrastructure remains secure in the face of evolving technological threats.

FTC Chair Commends Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator Initiative for Research on Policies to Help Govern AI

The Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation (VPA) is leading the way in research and policy recommendations on the governance of artificial intelligence. At the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, the groundbreaking initiative was commended by FTC Chair Lina Khan for its impact on her work with the agency. As part of Discovery Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation is a groundbreaking initiative to bolster innovative research and education at Vanderbilt. The mission of VPA is to swiftly develop and advance cutting-edge research, education and policy proposals at a pace that aligns with the urgency of today’s challenges. The VPA encompasses several projects, including one dedicated to revitalizing the study of the law and political economy of networks platforms, and utilities (NPUs) in transportation, communications, energy and banking. “Many of our country’s most pressing economic and social challenges are directly tied to how we govern network, platform, and utility industries, including airline flight cancellations, social media regulation, banking failures and electric grid crashes,” said Ganesh Sitaraman, the New York Alumni Chancellor’s Chair in Law at Vanderbilt Law School and director of VPA. VPA’s Project on Networks, Platforms and Utilities has developed a series of papers and policy proposals to improve the governance of these sectors. Among this work are a set of proposals to policymakers for regulating air travel, a plan for stabilizing and regulating the banking sector, and 40 recommendations to promote competition throughout the American economy. With growing interest in AI, VPA has turned its eye to how policymakers can address the harms that come from concentration in the AI technology stack. VPA’s papers have developed an antimonopoly approach to regulating AI, addressed public capacity for AI, and offered proposals on federal procurement of AI resources. VPA’s work in this field has gotten increasing attention. VPA director Ganesh Sitaraman participated in one of the U.S. Senate’s AI Fora in 2023. And during the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, FTC Chair Lina Khan specifically noted VPA’s impact on the agency. “I think the work that VPA has been doing on AI has been so enormously useful,” said Khan. “It’s really striking how it took 15 years before the NPU toolkit was even discussed alongside the Web 2.0 giants. So, the fact that from the very get-go this kind of framework is being applied in the context of AI policy discussions really marks that forward movement.” During the June conference, participants—which included 64 attendees from 15 different countries— discussed how their jurisdictions of study approach the regulation of network, platform and utility industries. This year’s conference was structured around eight panels, one on general themes and seven featuring a specific NPU sector: railroads, electricity, banking & finance, airlines, social infrastructure, tech platforms and telecommunications. “Vanderbilt is a leader in research on these topics, and we were very excited to welcome scholars from around the world to Nashville and to Vanderbilt, in order to explore these issues from a comparative and global perspective,” said Sitaraman. In the coming months, the conference organizers intend to compile the papers presented at the conference into an edited volume. To learn more, visit the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator website.

Is the U.S. banking system on the edge of collapse? Our #expert can explain

The recent bailout of First Foundation Inc, parent of First Foundation Bank, by a group of investors has reignited concerns about the stability of the U.S. banking system, specifically banks exposed to debt in the commercial real estate market teetering on the verge of collapse. First Foundation Bank reported more than $6 billion in commercial real estate mortgages on its financial statements for the first quarter of the year, equal to almost six times its equity capital and almost half of its $13.6 billion in total assets. Bank regulators consider any exposure greater than three times equity to be excessive. An analysis by Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University, previously found that the First Foundation Bank was fourth highest among the largest banks in the nation in terms of its exposure to commercial real estate debt. It’s likely that other banks are also at similar risk: among banks with more than $10 billion in total assets, there are 67 that exceed this 300% concentration ratio, Cole’s analysis showed. Among the approximately 4,600 banks of any size, Cole reports that 1,871 have total CRE exposures greater than 300%, 1,112 have exposures greater than 400%, 551 have exposures greater than 500%, and 243 have exposures greater than 600%. Cole is available for expert commentary on the stability of the U.S. banking system, other banks at risk due to their CRE exposure, and investor confidence.

Is America's banking system in trouble once again?

Nerves are rattled and many are worried as the markets opened Monday to news of another US bank collapse, making that two large banks shuttered in less than a week. It's news that's rocking the financial world on a massive scale. Federal regulators announced on Sunday that another bank had been closed and that the government would ensure that all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank — which failed Friday — would be paid back in full as Washington rushed to keep fallout from the collapse of the large institution from sweeping through the financial system. The Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced in a joint statement that “depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13.” In an attempt to assuage concerns about who would bear the costs, the agencies said that “no losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.” March 12 - New York Times With an economy already on edge as Americans feel the grip of inflation and worries of recession - this is frightening news and media are scrambling for answers. What is causing the closures of these big banks and how many more will follow? How much money is lost and how much has been protected? Is this 2008 all over again?  Is the federal government doing enough to stop the damage from spreading? What measures need to be put in place by government to assure citizens that their savings, retirement plans and mortgages aren't at risk? And will anyone be held accountable for the billions already lost? There's a lot to explain - and that's where our experts can help. Rebel Cole, Ph.D., a Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance, has expertise in global financial institutions, commercial banking and small business finance. He spent 10 years working in the Federal Reserve System and has experience at the the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Cole has been interviewed by numerous national media outlets, such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post and Fox Business. Rebel is available to speak to media regarding the current state of banking and what Americans need to watch for or worry about. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.