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Speculation and its impact on trading volume
Financial researchers have long wondered exactly which economic forces cause variation in asset prices and returns. For instance, traders will often target financial instruments due to their volatile and highly liquid nature, such as US treasury bonds. This speculative behavior takes advantage of the frequent price movements of the product. But the influence of that behavior remains the subject of debate. Francisco Barillas, assistant professor of finance, and Kristoffer Nimark (Cornell U) take a deep dive into the issue by investigating the impact of speculative trading activity on the variation of long maturity US bond yields. For their analysis, Barillas and Nimark use public information to develop a rational model to track “informed traders that take on speculative positions to exploit what they perceive to be inaccurate market expectations about future bond prices.” They argue that their research takes a more “suitable approach for empirical work” by factoring in how traders exploit private information that other traders may not have. The authors note that bond prices alone are not enough information for predicting bond returns. The two write, “If traders have access to different information, this price may differ from what an individual trader would be willing to pay for the bond if he had to hold it until maturity.” Ultimately, they find that this speculation remains a key driver of trading volume, accounting for a “substantial fraction of the variation in historical US bond yields along with the usual analysis of estimating returns based on bond prices.” Source:
Definitely …Maybe? Donald Trump’s planned sit-down with Kim Jun Un
It was diplomacy that was almost out of a movie. Two bitter leaders, both unpredictable and avowed enemies who seemed on the brink of war … until suddenly they are friends, complimenting each other and arranging a meeting of historic proportions. There was even talk of a Nobel Prize. It seemed too good to be true. And now the world is back to reality. The surprisingly insta-warm relationship between American and North Korea seems to have once again chilled. And now it’s a battle of statements over who has upset who and why. According to North Korean media, Choe Son Hui, a vice-minister in the North Korean Foreign Ministry, said the summit is being reconsidered. And annihilation may follow. "Whether the US will meet us at a meeting room or encounter us at nuclear-to-nuclear showdown is entirely dependent upon the decision and behavior of the United States," Choe said. Vice President Pence responded in the media with a veiled threat of his own. "There was some talk about the Libya model," Pence told Fox News "As the President made clear, this will only end like the Libya model ended if Kim Jong Un doesn't make a deal." So where are we now? What’s next? Is this relationship over before it even started? Experts from the University of Connecticut may have some insight and deeper understanding of this issue. Alexis Dudden is a Professor of History specializing in modern Japan and Korea, and international history at the University of Connecticut. Dudden stresses the importance of understanding the complexity of modern Korea-Japan relations to better appreciate Korean resistance to U.S. demands. South Korea is a country where one in six families is directly affected by the North-South divide. It is “imperative that Washington planners take seriously South Korean desires for renewed engagement,” Dudden says. Professor Dudden is available to speak with media regarding the ongoing talks and threats between North Korea and America. Simply click on her icon to arrange an interview. Source:
In less than a month, President Trump is scheduled to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in Singapore. Negotiations leading to the summit have led to the release of Americans from N. Korean prisons and reports of the razing of a nuclear facility. But the world has also seen the summit threatened by military drills conducted by South Korea and the U.S. Is such a meeting between two men who’ve engaged in name-calling and threats of nuclear war even possible? If so, what should we expect? Baylor's Peter Campbell, Ph.D., an expert on strategy, international relations and security, says: “I think Kim is willing to talk because he is actually in a very weak position because of the strained relations between his regime and China. It might be the case that the best that Kim can hope for from this crisis is to portray himself as the champion of peace between the two Koreas. Though, when speculating in this way, we should always recall that Kim is unpredictable, as his recent shift in behavior, from warlike rhetoric to peacemaker and back again, demonstrates. Now that President Trump has accepted the offer of talks, Kim appears willing to use their cancellation as leverage. However, this is a dangerous game. President Trump would likely be incensed by such an embarrassment and could then argue that diplomatic efforts have failed, leading to another and more dangerous stage in the crisis. “I think that we arrived at this juncture through a classic strategy of brinksmanship. The Trump administration showed a willingness to escalate the crisis that Kim may not have anticipated. Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis and Eisenhower during the Berlin Crisis showed a similar willingness. However, the key to brinksmanship, as both Kennedy and Eisenhower understood, is giving your opponent a face-saving way to get out of the crisis. Allowing Kim to portray himself as the champion of peace may be the price the U.S. must pay to bring an end to this crisis. For this to work the Trump administration must not claim, in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, that they defeated the Kim regime. President George H. W. Bush demonstrated such restraint when he refused to ‘dance on the Berlin Wall’ at the end of the Cold War and declare the U.S. the winner of that struggle. Such humility might be extremely difficult for Trump to muster, but I see it as likely essential to bring this crisis to an end.” Campbell is available to speak about U.S. relations with North Korea. Source:
Second Annual SUU Child Behavioral Health Conference
The second annual Southern Utah University Child Behavioral Health Conference is happening this week, May 17-18, 2018. Representing expertise across the field of child and pediatric behavioral health, the invited presenters include Gregory Snyder, Lindsey Ricciardi, Julia Thompson, and Kelsie Hendrickson. Dr. Michelle Grimes, Assistant Professor of Child Clinical Psychology at Southern Utah University and founder of the Child Behavioral Health Conference, wanted to create an opportunity for the professional community by bringing a continuing education event focused on evidence-based behavioral healthcare to southern Utah. “So often, behavioral health providers in rural areas have to invest a significant amount of time and financial resources travelling to conferences to receive continuing education. This ongoing training is necessary to stay current in the field, and also to maintain professional licensure. My goal for the SUU Child Behavioral Health Conference is to match the high quality you would find at a national event, while increasing the accessibility to healthcare providers in our community and surrounding areas.” Last year’s conference focused on common behavioral health disorders of childhood and adolescence. This year the conference will include a variety of topics relevant to adolescents, children, and parenting; broadly focusing on addressing complex cases in an outpatient setting. “We are focusing on complex clinical cases and added a seminar on ethical issues that arise when working with youth. The seminar will emphasize ethics related to adolescents and risk behavior, eating disorders, and trauma.” The conference welcomes all healthcare professionals from psychologists and pediatricians to social workers and treatment center staff. “We have attendees from Idaho, Utah, and Nevada and various behavioral health and medical disciplines are represented. This also serves as a professional development opportunity for students; we are pleased that students from SUU and other universities throughout Utah have registered. We hope to continue to build a regional interdisciplinary focus. We look forward to holding this event annually.” Dr. Grimes is a licensed psychologist with specialized training in clinical child psychology. Her clinical and research interests focus on behavior disorders of childhood, sibling conflict, and pediatric sleep disorders. She is familiar with the media and available for an interview. Simply visit her profile. Source:
Dell Regains Top Share in the Canadian PC Commercial Market
There’s good news today for Dell Canada. The computer company based in Round Rock, Texas posted the strongest year-on-year growth out of all the major companies in Canada - growing 11.9% and buoyed by strong performances in the public sector segments. These numbers are impressive as shipments of traditional PCs in the first quarter of 2018 totalled 1.25 million units into the Canadian Market. Though the worldwide numbers show a flat (0.0%) year-on-year growth in the first quarter, the expectations exceeded the earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline in PC sales. The Canadian market was a bright light growing 4.2% annually. But it wasn’t all good news in Canada, out of the top five leading companies that also include HP, Dell, Lenovo, Acer and Apple. It was Apple that lost its shine finishing last with a year-on-year decline in shipments of 5.8%. So, what does this mean for the industry? Are PC’s coming back against the popular tide of tablets and other competing units? What is Dell doing right to lead the way? And what’s next for developers as they look to the next generation of products. There’s a lot to more to this topic – and that’s where an expert from the International Data Corporation (IDC) can help. Tim Brunt is the Program Manager for IDC's Canadian Quarterly PC Tracker program. He is an expert in analyzing current market trends, business planning, business and consumer buyer behavior. Tim is available to speak with media, simply click on his icon to arrange an interview. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/canadian-traditional-pc-market-grew-42-yoy-q1-2018-tim-brunt/
Who's the best gift-giver? Baylor marketing expert shares her research findings
Meredith David, Ph.D., assistant professor of marketing, studies marketing strategies with an emphasis on consumer behavior and well-being. Her newest study on gift-giving centers on "social projection" -- making choices on behalf of others based on your own preferences. The research reveals that people who are “secure” in interpersonal settings are the ones most likely to engage in social projection (making choices on behalf of others based on their own preferences). Conversely, those who are “anxious” in such settings are less likely to assume that others share their own preferences and less likely to make choices for others based on their personal attitudes. “You’d think that secure people with lots of friends and healthy personal relationships would have a better idea of what someone would like as a gift, but that’s not the case,” David said. “This research shows that individuals who are anxious in interpersonal situations and who have fewer close, personal relationships are better at predicting what a person may like.” Dr. David’s research focuses on marketing strategies with an emphasis on consumer behavior and well-being. Recently, her research has explored how new media technologies, including smartphones, impact personal and workplace relationships. Dr. David has also published research related to customized pricing tactics, interpersonal attachment styles, and the pursuit of health goals. Her research appears in numerous journals including the Journal of Business Research, Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, Journal of Advertising, European Journal of Marketing, and Psychology & Marketing, among others. Dr. David has been interviewed and quoted for her research in many national and international news outlets, including ABC News, Fox News, Oprah.com, Redbook Magazine, Consumer Reports and Health Magazine. Source:
Baylor Biology Professor Travels To Antarctica To Study Leopard Seals As Part Of NSF-Funded Research
As part of an $800,000 National Science Foundation-funded project, Stephen J. Trumble, Ph.D., associate professor of biology at Baylor, and other experienced Antarctica researchers from the University of California, Santa Cruz and Colorado State University will work to gain an understanding of the foraging ecology and physiology of the leopard seal, an Antarctic apex, or top, predator. “This three-year project will collect data on foraging and dive behavior, diet, habitat use and fuel use in leopard seals,” Trumble said. “Ultimately, the goal is to relate foraging behavior with physiological performance and determine physiological limits. The estimated physiological limits combined with habitat modeling will help us understand how leopard seals may respond and cope with a changing Antarctic environment.” Trumble and his fellow researchers will conduct their research at the remote Cape Shirreff Field Station on Livingston Island, relying on 55-years of combined experience and lights to navigate the terrain in the dark while searching for leopard seals. A vertebrate physiologist and expert in marine mammals, Trumble has made his fair share of national research headlines since he began working at Baylor in 2008. Along with his graduate students in his Laboratory of Ecological and Adaptational Physiology (LEAP), Dr. Trumble investigates and publishes on basic and applied research involving skeletal muscle physiology, organismal energetics, lipid biochemistry, digestive physiology and health indices in models ranging from rats to seals to whales. Source:
Are You Sure More Than Half of LGBTQ Youth Have an Eating Disorder? Because Science Says Otherwise
Each day, thousands of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer (LGBTQ) youth wake up to a world filled with homonegativity, violence, gender shaming, bathroom bills that attempt to legislate the most private daily experiences, and family and peer rejection. Research has consistently found violent experiences to be prevalent for this group of young people. For example, gay and lesbian teenagers are respectively eight and 10 times more likely to be victimized at school than their heterosexual peers (D’Augelli), and national meta-studies find similar results (Friedman et al). It’s true that these victimization experiences have resulted in some pretty negative outcomes for LGBTQ young people over time. Studies have estimated that LGBTQ youth are three to four times more likely to report an internalizing disorder (e.g., anxiety, depression), and two to five times more likely to report externalizing disorders (e.g., substance use) than their heterosexual and cisgender peers. Nationally representative studies, like Monitoring the Future and the Youth Risk Behavior Survey, also find similar disparities, with higher rates of substance use, depression and suicidality among nearly all sexual and gender minority groups tracked. With this knowledge in mind, I was shocked to wake up and read headlines purporting “more than half of LGBTQ youth have an eating disorder” on articles published by Teen Vogue and the Huffington Post. At first, I was saddened to think this statement could be true -- that is, until the reality of how ostentatious this claim was set in. More at https://dworakpeck.usc.edu/news/are-you-sure-more-half-of-lgbtq-youth-have-eating-disorder-because-science-says-otherwise Source:
Tyrha Lindsey-Warren, Ph.D., clinical assistant professor of marketing in Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, studies consumer behavior, multicultural media, movies and entertainment. She is an expert on Hollywood and movies featuring actors of color. She said Tuesday's Oscar nominations reveal "positive strides" for recognition of minorities in the film industry, but she also noted missed opportunities for noteworthy films. “With today’s Oscar nominations, we see positive strides in the categories of Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Director regarding the nominations of persons of color. Even for not-so-well publicized categories like Best Screenplay, Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography, there are some wonderful artists of color and women that have been nominated. One that truly makes me happy is the nomination of ‘Coco’ for Best Animated Feature. It was an outstanding tribute to Mexican culture and was truly well done," Lindsey-Warren said. "However, I am saddened that Patty Jenkins, the director of ‘Wonder Woman’ did not get any acknowledgement from The Academy. She did an excellent job with ‘Wonder Woman,’ from both a cinematic perspective as well as from the worldwide box office revenues. I am also saddened that director Reginald Hudlin’s ‘Marshall’ is missing this awards season. The story of American hero Thurgood Marshall is one that should have been more celebrated.” Tyrha Lindsey-Warren, Ph.D., is a marketing scholar, business executive, artist and entrepreneur. As a consumer behavior scholar, her research is rooted in narrative transportation theory (i.e., storytelling) that exudes the emotion of empowerment and its impact on consumer attitudes, behaviors, purchase intention and message recall. She also studies health edutainment, multicultural media and advertising, as well as movies and entertainment. Lindsey-Warren is an expert in effective communications strategies for leaders, multicultural communications and marketing. For more information, or for an interview with Tyrha Lindsey-Warren, contact Baylor Media Communications. Source:
Movies like “Marshall” that are built around actors of color (Chadwick Boseman plays the iconic attorney) and have appeal to consumers of color historically see a significant surge in ticket sales in weeks five through eight – if producers are willing to keep them in theaters that long and allow for word-of-mouth advertising to build, said Tyrha Lindsey-Warren, Ph.D., clinical assistant professor of marketing in Baylor’s Hankamer School of Business. She studies consumer behavior, multicultural media, movies and entertainment. “I believe that Hollywood often pulls movies starring women and actors of color out of the theaters way too soon and before word-of-mouth has time to fully spread,” Lindsey-Warren said. “In my opinion, and according to our studies, Hollywood is leaving a great deal of money on the table.” Movies built around actors of color typically make money – in many cases as much or more than five times the budget, she said. For example, the 2017 comedy “Girls Trip,” which was built around four African-American female leads, was made for $19 million and has grossed more than $100 million at the box office. A challenge, Lindsey-Warren said, is that Hollywood expects to make its money back in the opening weekend. That strategy often doesn’t translate well to consumers of color. She cited a Nielsen study that showed African-Americans make an average 6.3 trips every year to see movies, and they tend to strongly support movies where there are characters like themselves and to whom they can relate. But they don’t rush to theaters for premier weekends. “Historically, African-American consumers have not been such early adopters of seeing movies on opening weekend and have typically waited to hear from trusted sources, by way of word-of-mouth, if the movie is worth seeing,” she said. “I call this behavior giving word-of-mouth time to spread. These are insights that Hollywood has not fully embraced regarding consumers of color and for movies built around actors of color.” Source: