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Whistle stops or Zoom chats – What will a campaign for the 2020 election look like?
The race for 2020 is on. President Donald Trump has already scheduled his first rally in the very red-leaning Oklahoma whereas Joe Biden has been conducting digital town-halls and online events in his effort to reach voters. Campaigning for president is a billion-dollar ordeal. It usually means months and months on the road; a different message being brought to a different audience and usually in a different state each night from August until November. For President Trump, it seems he’s charging, head down – despite what many critics and officials have to say. Yet Trump has continued to travel — even to states that still have restrictions — and announced this week that he’ll resume his signature campaign rallies beginning next Friday in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The state, which was among the earliest to begin loosening coronavirus restrictions, has a relatively low rate of infection but has seen cases rising. “They’ve done a great job with COVID, as you know, the state of Oklahoma,” Trump said Wednesday. Campaign officials chose the location knowing Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt would raise no objections. Stitt’s most recent reopening phase places no limits on the size of group gatherings. The campaign hopes the location will all but guarantee a large crowd, since Oklahoma is one of the most Republican states in the nation and Trump has never held a rally there as president. Still, the reality could not be completely ignored. “By clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to COVID-19 exists in any public place where people are present,” Trump’s campaign advised those signing up for the rally. “By attending the Rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.” liable for illness or injury. Trump is also planning events in Arizona and Florida — states where cases are on the upswing. In Arizona, hospitals have been told to prepare for the worst as hospitalizations have surged. Trump this month decided that he would no longer hold the marquee event of the Republican National Convention —- his acceptance speech — in North Carolina after the state refused to guarantee that he could fill an arena to capacity with maskless supporters. It’s being moved to Jacksonville, Florida. June 12 – Associated Press But as the Trump campaign seems to be sticking to the old school playbook – what will the Democrats do? Can campaigning on-line be effective? Do voters really need to see a person and shake a hand to make a decision who to vote for? Is it better to be safe or sorry when there is so much at stake? If you are covering – then let our experts help with your questions and stories. Mark Caleb Smith is the Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. Mark is available to speak with media regarding the DNC Primary, running mates and the upcoming election. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
UMW Professor Wrote the Book on Trump’s Relationship With Twitter
The Twitter Presidency of Donald Trump – that’s chapter five of a book by Stephen J. Farnsworth. As the freshly fueled fire between Twitter and Trump burns hotter, Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, is perfectly poised to fan the flames. In fact, he wrote the book on it. Presidential Communication and Character, White House News Management From Clinton and Cable to Twitter and Trump, traces the means used by our commanders in chief to herald their policies, and specifically targets the Trump administration, which Farnsworth calls “the first true Twitter presidency.” Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is a sought-after political commentator on subjects ranging from presidential politics to the local Virginia congressional races. He has been widely featured in national media, including The Washington Post, Reuters, The Chicago Tribune and MSNBC. He is author or co-author of six books on presidential communication. Dr. Farnsworth is available to speak with media and help with your coverage – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
TORONTO, ON., May 29, 2020 — International Data Corporation (IDC) Canada announced today the release of 20 new research reports to help vendors understand the impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian ICT market, including five new forecast documents. In addition, most analysts have created an additional report analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on their specific technology patch, providing our clients with additional details on the impact and guidance for vendors in that market. IDC Market Forecasts help technology suppliers identify market drivers and size, measure current performance, analyze leading market indicators, as well as plan for future opportunities and growth. The five forecast reports are listed below: Canadian Communications Services Forecast, 2020–2024: COVID-19 Turns Telecom Inside Out (IDC# CA45063520 ). This IDC study presents IDC Canada's five-year forecasts for communications services spending by market and customer segments, company size, industry sector, and region for 2020–2024 based on the annual update of IDC Canada's Communications Market Model and replaces our previous comprehensive spring and fall 2019 forecasts. "Communications providers are largely recession proof and fortunately investments in next-gen network technologies and architectures are allowing communications service providers to cope with unrivalled demand," says study coauthor Lawrence Surtees, vice president of Communications Research and principal analyst at IDC Canada. "But the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic is still a great unknown and its associated economic shocks could dramatically impact the current forecast." Canadian IT Professional Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC# CA45064220 ). This IDC study provides the spring 2020 market size and forecasts for the Canadian IT professional services market. The professional services market is made up of four submarkets: Custom application development, IS consulting, Network consulting & integration, and Systems integration. "The Canadian IT professional services market relies on discretionary capital spending budgets, which are typically suspended or curtailed in times of economic uncertainty. 2020 will be a challenging year for professional services firms due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the market is expected to recover as the Canadian and global economies recover and businesses reinstate capital spending for IT projects," says Jim Westcott, research manager, Professional Services, IDC Canada. Canadian Infrastructure Outsourcing Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC#CA45058420). This IDC study provides IDC's forecast for the Canadian infrastructure outsourcing services market for 2020–2024. It is an update of the previous forecast published in Canadian Infrastructure Outsourcing Services Forecast, 2019–2023 (IDC #CA43804019, May 2019). "The infrastructure outsourcing market continues to change, and COVID-19 will likely accelerate change. The decline in 1st and 2nd Platform technologies is leading to slow outsourcing spending on these areas, while the growth in 3rd Platform technologies to support digital transformation are increasingly incorporated into outsourcing and managed service engagements," says Jason Bremner, research vice president, Industry and Business Solutions. Canadian Consumer Wireless, Internet, and Wireline Voice Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC# CA45059520). "In an already-competitive consumer market in the middle of great technological change, the global Coronavirus pandemic and the precautionary restrictions it has placed on Canadians has not only caused drastic socioeconomic changes but has forced consumers to weigh out the value proposition of each consumer service," says coauthor Manish Nargas, senior analyst for Consumer Services and Mobility. "Survival of the fittest is the call of the hour, and it seems that some consumer services will fare better than others after the dust has settled. While easier said than done, service providers need to think beyond the today's losses in order to plan for tomorrow's win." Canadian Consumer TV Services Forecast, 2020-2024 (IDC#CA45059620). This IDC study examines the forecast for Canadian consumer TV services subscribers and revenue. It also addresses the factors shaping the market as well as the key drivers and inhibitors underlying the forecast. "TV service providers will have to bring out their A game as they look to harness their next-gen TV service capabilities and create symbiotic, seemingly 'complementary' partnerships with OTT video providers to keep consumer eyeballs on their TV service platforms all the while combating economic ill effects of COVID-19 restrictions in the short term," says coauthor Manish Nargas, senior analyst, Consumer Services and Mobility at IDC Canada. "Based on our forecasts from May 1, 2020, we’re looking at an unprecedented 5.4 per cent decline for the year for the combination of telecom and IT spending in Canada. The cumulative impact of trade restrictions, supply chain impairments, commodity price declines, significant lay-offs and freefalling consumer and business confidence has led to a more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market than we had predicted in early April," says Nigel Wallis, vice president, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. IDC develops detailed forecasting reports and analysis for major technology markets in Canada, which are published annually during the month of May. IDC's Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the Canadian ICT Market, 2020 and Beyond (IDC# CA46217620 , May 20 20 ) supports the underlying macroeconomic assumptions for each of the ICT market forecast reports. We also recently released a new interactive Canadian COVID-19 IT Impact Dashboard tool to help our clients visualize the impacts, in partnership with Rel8ed.to, which is available for everyone to use. For our clients that need to know the impact of the pandemic on ICT Spending beyond Canada’s borders, IDC created our global COVID-19 Resources microsite which contains more research reports, webinars, press releases and blog posts from around the world. We’ve also done a series of free webcasts for our clients with the first one on April 2 and the second one on May 6. Our third webcast in this series will occur on June 4th. Register today for COVID-19 Impact: Preparing for Recovery in the Canadian Tech Market. Here’s the list of our recently published Canadian-based COVID-19 research reports to help our clients meet the challenges from the pandemic, anticipate market changes and keep business moving: COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian ICT Market (IDC#CA46134820) Canadian Datacenter Infrastructure Action Item, Q2 2020: The Impact of COVID-19 (IDC#CA45057420) Impact of COVID-19: Canadian IT Services Market (IDC#CA46166120) All Priorities Aside: The Canadian Government's Singular Response to COVID-19 (IDC#CA46166920) The Impact of COVID-19: Canadian Security Solutions Market (IDC#CA46166520) Canadian Communications Service Provider Capex Spending, 2019–2020 (IDC#CA45063820) Canadian Government Wireless Price Policy - Ill-conceived and Horribly Timed (IDC# CA45663920) COVID-19 Business Impact: Hierarchy of Needs; Moving from Pandemic Risk Management to Organizational Agility (IDC# CA46228420) How is the Pandemic Crisis Impacting Digital Transformation in Canada? (IDC# CA46235620) Impact of COVID-19: Canadian Software as a Service Market (IDC# CA46166620) COVID-19 Impact: What’s Next for the Canadian Tech Market (IDC# CA46281820) COVID-19 Impact: Canadian Retail & Wholesale Market (IDC# CA45674020) COVID-19 Leadership: Canadian CIOs Strategize on Responses to COVID-19 (forthcoming) Critical Networks Provide Critical Care: Role of Communication Networks to Treat and Prevent COVID-19 (forthcoming) COVID-19 Impact: Canadian Vertical Markets Overview (forthcoming) For more information about the market forecast reports, the COVID-19 related reports, or to arrange a one on one interview with any of the report authors, please contact Cristina Santander at AskIDC@IDCcanada.com.
Is AI taking over traditional procurement practices?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is everywhere. It’s taking questions from clients, running assembly lines and is now pretty much part of every appliance in every house and is also an integral part of industry. In fact, in the attached article, Joe McNamara, global director of IT for food giant Kraft-Heinz details how he has implemented AI as a vital source for manufacturing and procurement across his company. Recently, Ruomeng Cui an Assistant Professor in the Department of Information System and Operations Management at the Goizueta Business School, Emory University along with colleagues from Rutgers University and Tianjin University, authored a paper regarding how Artificial Intelligence will be playing an expanded role in areas like procurement and how it will increase accuracy and efficiency for businesses on a global scale. If you’re looking to learn more about this topic – then let us help with your questions or coverage. Ruomeng Cui investigates how operations strategies create value in digital retail and platform markets. Professor Cui is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview.
No graduation – no problem. See how one Georgia Southern senior took care of her ceremony online
For many, this spring was to be a milestone commemorating many years of hard work and dedication. Graduating from university is the official step into adulthood and the achievement of academic excellence. But this year is different. COVID-19 is either restricting celebrations or cancelling them outright. For some students, it is a disappointing moment. Others, like Rebecca Hooper, a senior marketing major at Georgia Southern University, saw an opportunity to innovate. On Tuesday, March 17, during spring break, Georgia Southern announced the cancellation of its in-person Spring 2020 Commencement ceremonies for Statesboro and Savannah. Since that time, the University has announced an online ceremony for graduates on May 8 and 9 and hopes to be able to hold a rescheduled in-person ceremony on or before commencement in December. As the news broke, Hooper and her friend were playing Minecraft, a sandbox video game which allows users to create digital worlds where they can build as many landscapes and structures as they like. As they played the game and chatted online, Hooper had what seemed like a crazy idea. “I was like, ‘Wouldn’t it be cool if we built the stadium?’ I just said it as a joke at first, but then the next day rolled around and I started on it. And then it kept on going and going and I couldn’t stop,” she said. Two days later (and more than eight hours of digital construction), Hooper had created Glenn Bryant Field and the home side of the stadium. She also built a commencement stage complete with a jumbotron that said, “Hail Southern! One More Time!” Knowing that no ceremony would be complete without Freedom’s Flight, Hooper added “Freedom” on the stage. However, the closest thing she could find to the University’s bald eagle mascot was a green parrot, who let out a little squawk and bobbed up and down. Hooper posted a flythrough of the stadium on Twitter, with a comment that said, “GSU said no graduation in Paulson. I said Minecraft graduation in Paulson #HailSouthern.” The response was immediate and overwhelming. Hooper has big plans for her virtual stadium. She’s planning on doing some online tours through Twitch, a video game playthrough app. She’s also invited her friends to help her finish building the stadium, complete with Bishop Fieldhouse, press boxes, sky boxes, and the large parking lot where she hopes to invite people to build their own virtual tailgating structures. If you are journalist and would like to know more about this story - simply reach out to Georgia Southern Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview.
As the global pandemic touches almost all parts of the United States – it is essential that the public receives only accurate and definitive information from credible and expert sources as news, media and information reaches million of people across the country. An invisible enemy is killing thousands and forcing people worldwide to cower behind closed doors. Unfounded conspiracy theories and miracle “cures” abound on social media. Politicians and pundits send mixed messages about how to protect yourself. Who you gonna call? - Bedford Gazette, April 14 As the coronavirus rampages, the public increasingly is turning to experts in academia and government -- the educated, experienced “elites” that many Americans had tuned out. The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) situation is certainly new to all of us. As guidance from the CDC changes and instructional methods transition, there are experts at Georgia Southern who can help to answer questions such as: How should we best address this pandemic as a nation? How should we best address this pandemic individually? What does it mean to “flatten the curve?" What is the economic impact of COVID-19? How do you best manage employees virtually? Why are grocery stores having trouble keeping inventory on their shelves? Should we prepare for a lapse in groceries and goods? What contributes to the fear and panic in disasters and pandemics? What do educators, parents and students need to know to prepare for online learning in the K-12 and college settings? If you are a reporter covering COVID-19, let the team of experts from Georgia Southern help with your coverage. Public Health: Atin Adhikari, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Adhikari brings over 15 years of extensive research experience on aerosols, airborne microorganisms, other air pollutants, and related respiratory disorders. His current research areas include environmental air quality, exposure assessment, occupational health and safety, environmental microbiology, and respiratory health. Before joining JPHCOPH, Dr. Adhikari was also involved (Co-I) with two DoD-DTRA and U.S. Office of Naval Research funded projects on inactivation of hazardous microorganisms. Chun Hai (Isaac) Fung, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung is a digital health expert and an infectious disease epidemiologist. He analyses social media data for public health surveillance and health communication and uses digital technologies for public health interventions. He investigates the transmission of communicable diseases with a focus on respiratory infections and environmentally transmitted infections. He applied a variety of methods, from classical statistical methods to machine learning and mathematical modeling, to address public health problems and to provide solutions to policy-makers. He is especially interested in assisting public health agencies in their responses to public health emergencies. He is currently a guest researcher with the Health Economics and Modeling Unit, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Examples of his recent projects include: Surveillance of unplanned school closures through social media platforms, Analysis of social media posts pertinent to public health emergencies, such as Ebola, MERS and Zika. Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Pandemics, panic and the public: Amy Ballagh, Ed.D. Associate Vice President of Enrollment Management Featured in the Washington Post : Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Jodi Caldwell, Ph.D. Executive Director of the Georgia Southern University Counseling Center On a national level, Dr. Caldwell is currently serving her second elected term to the Directorate Board of the Commission for Counseling and Psychological Services of the American College Personnel Association and is a certified Red Cross Disaster Mental Health Responder. COVID-19 and logistics, the economy and the workforce: Alan Mackelprang, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Currently the director of the Ph.D. in Logistics and Supply Chain Management program, his research interests include examining interdependencies among supply chain partners, JIT/Lean production, manufacturing flexibility as well as supply chain integration. Scott Ellis, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Scott Ellis’ research interests center on the study of purchasing and supply management processes and functions. He has published in Journal of Operations Management and Journal of Supply Chain Management, among others. Richard McGrath, Ph.D. Professor, Parker College of Business Richard McGrath researches immigration, consumer survey methodology, and applied microeconomics. He is a long time expert on the economy in Savannah and the Coastal Empire. Michael Toma, Ph.D. Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Economics Michael Toma is a professor and lead analyst for the Center for Business Analytics and Economic Research, a student- and faculty-staffed applied research group focused on the Savannah-area economy that works with many local partners on special initiatives, customized applied business research and impact studies. Based on Toma's analytics, the Center publishes the quarterly Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, a closely watched economic report. Toma's community ties are also strong in the area. He serves on the Board of Directors for United Way of the Coastal Empire and on the organization's Executive Committee as chair of the Community Investments Committee. David Sikora, Ph.D. Assistant professor of management David Sikora’s research interests include strategic human resource management and the business impact of employee management practices. He has published his research in such journals as the Journal of Applied Psychology, Leadership Quarterly, Human Resources Management Review, International Journal of Selection and Assessment, and International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management. Prior to his academic career, David had extensive corporate experience in human resources and marketing including serving as human resources vice president at Cigna Corporation and director of human resources product management at Gevity HR, Incorporated. Steven Charlier, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Management Charlier’s research interests are focused on the modern work environment, and include virtual teams, e-learning, leadership in a virtual world, and management education. His work has been published in several leading international academic journals, including The Leadership Quarterly, Human Resource Management, Journal of Organizational Behavior, Academy of Management Learning & Education, and Human Resource Management Review. Online teaching and learning: Charles Hodges, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development Hodges is a tenured professor of instructional technology at Georgia Southern with over 20 years of online teaching experience. As an active researcher in online teaching and learning, Hodges presents regularly at the national and international levels. He currently serves as the editor-in-chief of the journal and he is a long-time member of the Association for Educational Communications and Technologies, a professional organization for Educational Technology scholars and practitioners. Featured in the Inside Higher Ed article (published 3/11/20): Jeffrey Tysinger, Ph.D. and Dawn Tysinger, Ph.D. Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning: o https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/nyar/vol2/iss1/4/ o https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2811036.2811057 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=EJ1147626 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=ED595756 Dawn Tysinger, NCSP, serves as professor and program director for the nationally-recognized, National Association of School Psychologists-Approved Education Specialist program in school psychology at Georgia Southern University. Tysinger has contributed to her field through active participation in NASP, publications in school psychology journals, and presentations at the local, state, regional, national, and international levels. She currently serves on the NASP program review board for school psychology programs and as a member of the editorial boards of Journal of School Psychology, Psychology in the Schools, Trainers’ Forum: Journal of the Trainers of School Psychologists, National Youth-At-Risk Journal and Journal of Online Learning Research. Jeff Tysinger, NCSP, is a professor of school psychology at Georgia Southern University. He has been the president of the Kansas Association of School Psychologists (KASP), editor of the KASP Newsletter, KASP Futures committee member, KASP NCSP committee member, member of National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) since 1997, Nationally Certified School Psychologist since 1997, NASP Program Reviewer, NCSP Portfolio Reviewer, member of NCATE Board of Examiners, member of Georgia Association of School For parents at home with (k-12) children now distance learning: Chelda Smith Associate Professor, Department of Elementary and Special Education Smith’s master's thesis focused on parents as the first teachers of children and can speak to how parents can be empowered in that role. Her research agenda continues to focus on home and community assets, of which parents/caregivers are the primary influence and factor for positive outcomes. Lastly, as a parent of both a middle schooler and a toddler, Smith is navigating the process of being a primary educator in the home in real-time. Each expert is available to speak with media – simply contact Melanie Simon at 912.313.3245 to arrange an interview today.
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
Drinking alcoholic beverages may be more appealing amid unease about the coronavirus, as people deal with shelter-at-home orders, fears about the economy and boredom, says a Baylor University researcher who studies alcohol use and misuse. But with regulations providing less access to alcohol, this may be a good time for individuals struggling with alcohol use to begin recovery and for others to guard against over-relying on alcohol or other substances. When bars and restaurants began closing — other than for such options as pickup, delivery or drive-through — liquor stores saw a surge in business, according to news reports. But Pennsylvania closed its liquor stores — some people defied stay-at-home orders and drove to liquor stores in neighboring states — and New Hampshire recently closed some of its liquor stores, according to reports. Other states who deemed the businesses “essential” also may take another look at the issue. How to grapple with the risks of substance use and misuse during this stressful time is the subject of this Q&A with Sara Dolan, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at Baylor University, who has done extensive research on substance use and misuse. Q: There are memes — some of them humorous — going around about heavy alcohol use during quarantine. Why might people be drinking more than usual? DOLAN: People have many different motivations for drinking, and I think self-isolation amplifies some of those. First, people drink to feel good. For some, being out of the normal work routine may feel like a time to let loose. People also drink to feel less bad. It would be normal to feel out of sorts now that we are social distancing. It also would be normal to feel some boredom, and certainly we feel anxiety and uneasiness about our current circumstances. Alcohol may be seen by some as a way to cope with those negative feelings. Q: How might the “new normal” be especially hard for alcoholics? Could this be a time to begin recovery? Some may be social distancing from drinking buddies, although that wouldn’t stop drinking alone. DOLAN: A forced lack of access to alcohol through social distancing and bars being closed can be a great jumping-off point for someone to begin recovery, especially when people are physically distancing from the people they drink or use with. But this can be an especially tough time for people because they may not be able to cope with all the new stressors, especially if they don’t have access to their typical means of coping. For example, for someone who usually relies on friends and family for support, social distancing can cause more stress. And loneliness is especially difficult when it is stacked on top of economic, illness and other anxieties we are experiencing. It is important for us to reach out, from a distance, to family and friends and other resources to help us cope positively so we don’t turn to drinking or other drug use to help us cope. I worry about people who are very heavy drinkers who suddenly stop drinking. Alcohol withdrawal, which can happen when a very heavy drinker stops drinking suddenly, can be very dangerous. Symptoms include anxiety, shakiness, sweatiness, headaches, nausea and even hallucinations – seeing and hearing things others don’t see or hear — and seizures. If someone who usually drinks very heavily and suddenly stops drinking experiences these symptoms, immediate medical attention is necessary. Q: What strategies would you suggest as far as dealing with heavy drinking during this time – both for drinkers and for those who love them? DOLAN: We really all need to be compassionate toward one another, regardless of our individual struggles. This is a difficult time for everyone – it is normal during a crisis like this to feel anxious and even depressed. Support is very important, both for those who are struggling and for those who seem like they are doing fine. This support can take a lot of different forms, from offering an ear to listen to offering specific strategies, such as mutual recovery groups (such as Alcoholics Anonymous, offered online) and other coping resources, like apps. Here is a list of just a few of the apps that may help people cope with stress: Breathe2Relax iChill Personal Zen Self-Help for Anxiety Management T2Mood Tracker The Mindfulness App - meditate Q: What about groups like Alcoholics Anonymous during this time, who because of guidelines against large gatherings may miss in-person support? DOLAN: There are quite a few digital resources to support recovery from alcohol and substance abuse. Here are just a few: Alcoholics Anonymous Narcotics Anonymous Smart Recovery Groups Al-Anon Recovery Groups for loved ones of those struggling with problematic alcohol use Q: Is there anything else you would like to add? DOLAN: We know that during times of crisis, rates of anxiety, depression and suicidal behaviors increase, and those feelings and behaviors can be exacerbated by heavier alcohol or drug use. Let’s do all that we can to care for those around us. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s oldest and largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and seven academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit www.baylor.edu/artsandsciences.
Will schools reopen before semester ends? Georgia Southern pandemic expert can give perspective
While education has moved into homes across the country because of the COVID-19 pandemic, people are wondering if the shutdowns will actually help stop the spread of the disease. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Ph.D., a digital health expert and infectious disease epidemiologist at Georgia Southern University, said school closures can delay the peak of the outbreak, reduce the amount of cases and decelerate the spread of the virus. Fung was a part of a study in 2015 that modeled a potential flu pandemic. The study showed that delaying the spread of a virus can give health care professionals more time to come up with vaccines and other treatments, as well as giving the system time to brace itself for the onslaught of patients. “The key message of my paper is not necessarily how quickly we shut down schools,” Fung told Rolling Stone. “It is the duration of school closure that matters. Whenever we relax social distancing measures, we will see a bounce-back of the cases, unless we are able to completely block all transmission chains and have driven the case number to zero — i.e., extinction of the virus, as in the case of SARS in 2003.” While some think opening schools and other public places would benefit the economy, Fung said doing so could leave the country vulnerable. “To save the U.S. economy, we must control this disease first,” Hung said to Rolling Stone. “That is what China is going to achieve — even if they have already suffered a great deal economically due to COVID-19. That is why (Narendra) Modi asks the whole of India to stay home for three weeks. That is also what Boris Johnson asks the British people to do now. The Americans should take heed.” Fung analyses social media data for public health surveillance and health communication and uses digital technologies for public health interventions. He investigates the transmission of communicable diseases with a focus on respiratory infections and environmentally transmitted infections. He applied a variety of methods, from classical statistical methods to machine learning and mathematical modeling, to address public health problems and to provide solutions to policymakers. He is especially interested in assisting public health agencies in their responses to public health emergencies. Fung is available to speak with media regarding this topic — simply reach out to Georgia Southern Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview.
What are IDC's Tech Insights on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian Market?
Dear Member of the IDC Canada Community, As we all adapt to this ever changing environment, our Canadian team has been working behind the scenes analyzing the COVID-19 impact on the Canadian ICT market. This email provides you with tech insights, including updates on market outlook and further resources to help you make critical business decisions in the weeks and months ahead. Canadian Total IT Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down from 2.4% to -5.0% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Research Scenario The coronavirus outbreak across the world and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially affect the Canadian IT markets, severely accelerating the impact already felt from the supply-driven effects from Asia. In this extremely fluid scenario, International Data Corporation (IDC) now expects to see a significant slowdown in technology spending in 2020 across Canadian organizations, with IT spending expected to decline by -5.0%. As recently as December 2019, we were projecting a positive 2.4% growth rate for 2020. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for Q2 and Q3. "Technology vendors and buyers are rapidly adapting to the disruption and the extremely fast-moving market conditions," said Nigel Wallis , Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian IT market fully. However, given the sharp economic contraction, IDC recommends that all technology leaders recalibrate their strategies." IDC Canada has developed three scenarios to help technology providers and buyers with their short-term business and technology investment planning. "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3. Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4," said Tony Olvet , GVP Research, at IDC Canada. A Probable Scenario Depicting a Decline In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian IT spending to decline by -5.0% in constant currency terms this year, down from the 2.4% forecast published at the end of 2019. "When taking a broad historical view of Canadian IT spending across the past decade, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis is expected to exceed the levels of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. As such, it does represent the most significant deceleration in IT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time," said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. As restrictions of movement bite, supply-chain disruption becomes commonplace, and demand drops, Canadian IT spending will drop rapidly in Q2. Particularly manufacturing, personal and consumer services, transportation, and hospitality will be sharply curbed, as these industries are the most exposed to the COVID-19 crisis impact in the short-, mid-, and long-term view. At the same time, other sectors, such as healthcare and government, will be forced to accelerate investments significantly. IDC expects this will drive additional IT investments for the public sector, pushing hard on infrastructure and collaboration tools deployments, but not before the second half of 2020." In the most pessimistic scenario, IDC expects ICT spending to drop and record a –8.2% decline in 2020, with all technology domains showing negative trends for the remaining part of the year. A series of domino effects, including oil price changes, currency depreciation, the inability of governments to make timely payments, delays in the supply chains and significant lay-offs would lead to a much more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market and an exponential increase in the downside risk in IDC's market forecast assumptions. The new outlook is shaped primarily by lower expectations in the hardware and services markets: Hardware markets will suffer due to restriction measures hampering supply and overall reduced demand. Client Devices are particularly hit hard, initially because of supply constraints and in later quarters as reduced demand further erode growth. The most significant impact on the IT services industry will be a result of businesses postponing decisions on pending projects and slowing the execution of projects in the delivery phase. Spending reductions on the software and telecoms markets are less pronounced, and some positive factors are expected to moderate the natural downturn somewhat. While the decrease in hardware spending will also negatively impact the overall software market to a degree, difficulties prompted by COVID-19 across industries will impact total telecommunication spending (this will be examined in forthcoming IDC Canada research). At the same time, the increasing need for remote collaboration will push telecom services demand and drive new opportunities in the collaborative applications and platforms areas, as well as an increase in security technologies that enable them. The pre-existing digital maturity of industries will also be a factor impacting on their capacity to invest in technologies, regardless of their budget capabilities. Limited face-to-face business relationships between vendors and end-users will inevitably also reduce investment in significant digital transformation projects in less mature industries, and especially for projects involving more advanced technologies. Social distancing and provincial lock downs (the duration is hard to predict) will also have significant consequences on the purchasing options for many consumers. Additional factors weighing on investment will range from a decrease in customer demand to supply chains breaking up," said Meng Cong , Manager, Market Insights & Analytics at IDC Canada. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow. In use cases such as patient care as well as customer, citizen, student or employee experience and proximity, we expect to see accelerated adoption of digital solutions. Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." Register for our Complimentary Webcast Now On-Demand IDC's Canadian team is closely monitoring the evolution of the ICT market and its reaction to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios. If you are interested in knowing more about this, please register for the IDC Canada Complimentary Webcast COVID-19 Impact in the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.