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U.S.-Iran Crisis: Outlook and Implications
Executive Summary: The immediate crisis following the death of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. airstrike and Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes against two U.S. airbases appears to have settled down. However, the conditions for a future flare-up remain in place because the underlying conditions have not changed. Going forward, each side is likely to double down on its stated strategic objective, with Iran pushing for an end to U.S. presence in the region and the U.S. pushing for an end to the Iranian nuclear program. Further, the norms that had previously prevented an open exchange of fire between the two sides have been eroded. Why It Matters: The events of January 3rd and 8th represent the first time since the skirmishes of the “Tanker Wars” of 1987-88 that the military forces of the United States and Iran have directly and openly exchanged fire with each other. For the last three decades, the contest between the two states has been a shadow war of proxy conflicts, plausible deniability, and non-military measures. The American decision to strike Soleimani and the Iranian decision to fire missiles in response removed many of the guardrails that have set limits on previous escalations of tensions. The Iranian decision to renounce cooperation with the 2015 nuclear agreement places back into contention an issue that had previously brought the U.S. and Israel to the point of war with Iran in 2012-13. Business Impact: Markets have been largely taking a wait-and-see approach in order to determine the form of Iranian response to Soleimani’s death, and they responded with relief when President Trump signaled that the U.S. would not retaliate. To an extent, uncertainty in the Middle East had already been priced into the markets due to tensions in the second half of 2019. A significant or prolonged conflict would have an obvious negative impact on energy markets and regional economies. In addition, American and Western companies operating internationally or their employees could suffer collateral damage from any future Iranian proxy attacks against visible symbols of U.S. presence overseas. Looking Forward: In the immediate term, the resolution of the crisis represented one of the best possible outcomes: Iran has publicly signaled that the missile launches conducted on January 8th constituted the extent of their military retaliation to Soleimani’s death and President Trump’s White House address acknowledged Iran’s desire to de-escalate and spoke of finding mutually beneficial outcomes with no further mention of military action. Going forward, both Iran and the United States are likely to double down on their desired strategic outcomes. Iran will seek to use all of the levers of its influence to drive the United States from the region, beginning with Iraq but also including indirect pressure on the Gulf states that host U.S. forces. Offensive cyber operations and deniable proxy attacks against civilian infrastructure in the Gulf could be part of that campaign, returning to tactics observed in the past. For its part, the United States will continue its maximum pressure campaign over the Iranian nuclear program, with President Trump promising additional economic sanctions even as he stepped back from military action. Therefore, although both sides appear to be committed to non-military means, the points of tension that caused the most recent crisis are all still present and have arguably increased based on Iran’s increased non-compliance with JCPOA. It remains to be seen whether coming close to the brink of open conflict will have changed the risk tolerance of either side or whether the first acknowledged exchange of fires between the U.S. and Iran for 32 years will usher in a new period of low-level conflict. The View from Tehran: Iran has played Soleimani’s death for maximum strategic benefit. The messaging of the past 96 hours was aimed at various audiences within the country, the region, and around the world. Having been caught on the backfoot by the U.S.’s strike on Soleimani, the Supreme Leader allowed the IRGC to retaliate against U.S. forces in Iraq in a calibrated manner, likely calculating that a strike with limited casualties would satisfy demands for vengeance while not prompting a response. Khamenei’s Decision: Ayatollah Khamenei is an inherently conservative figure and one who is above all else motivated by the priority of regime survival. Given their long-standing personal relationship, there is ample reason to believe that his displays of emotion of Soleimani’s death, including weeping over his coffin during the funeral on January 6th, were genuine and heart-felt. However, his expressed desire for revenge has been tempered by the overarching imperative to avoid a conflict that would have threatened the regime’s hold on power, either from within or without. Rally Around the Flag: Within Iran, the regime is seeking to use Soleimani’s death and their subsequent retaliation to build national unity following a period of significant domestic unrest. This has been emphasized by the extended period of mourning for Soleimani, days-long funeral spectacle, and the invocation of religious and cultural symbols associated with Shi’a martyrs. The death of Soleimani comes on the heels of a series of mass protests in Iran that originally began on November 15th in response to proposed increase in the price of gas, but which have since expanded to a wider challenge to the regime. Media reporting from late December suggested as many as 1,500 Iranian civilians have been killed as part of a regime crackdown on the protests, which have been characterized as the most serious challenge to the regime since the Green Movement of 2009. JCPOA as a Wedge Between U.S. and Europe: Iran announced on January 5th that it would cease compliance with the remaining provisions of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action but would be willing to return to compliance if sanctions are removed. The nuance in Iran’s position highlights the fact that it is continuing to attempt to use the nuclear issue to drive a wedge between European signatories to the agreement and the United States, which unilaterally walked away from the treaty in May 2018. Regime Dynamics: Soleimani was a high-profile figure within Iran, but his outsized influence on Iranian foreign policy also created friction with other stakeholders in the regime, including leaders of the conventional military forces, the ministry of foreign affairs, and the intelligence services. He was one of few genuinely strategic thinkers in the Iranian national security apparatus and the one with the most extensive and deepest connections within the Arab-speaking world. His replacement as commander of the Quds Force is his long-time deputy who will be familiar with the day-to-day operations of the IRGC’s external operations arm but will not have the stature or the network of Soleimani. As a result, other stakeholders may jockey to move into the vacuum created by his death. The View from Washington: The present challenge for the U.S. is how to maintain both a deterrent posture and establishing the means to avoid further escalation. The policy on Iraq going forward will have to balance President Trump’s desire to disengage from the conflict while not creating the appearance of having been pushed out by Iran. Escalate to Deter: President Trump’s decision to kill Soleimani reflected an “escalate to deter” strategy, using a sudden and unexpected escalation of force during a crisis in order to reestablish deterrence after previous provocations in 2019 had gone largely unanswered. However, deterrence is only as good as the last demonstration of a willingness to respond. The decision to not respond to Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes reflected a pragmatic decision to de-escalate. National Security Decision-Making: Nearly three years into his presidency, Donald Trump feels increasingly confident making national security decisions based on his own instincts. The original coterie of experienced national security establishment members such as Jim Mattis and H.R. McMaster who had populated the Situation Room during the early days of the administration have largely resigned or been fired and replaced with individuals of lower profile and/or proven loyalty. Although the mechanisms of the formal interagency process continue to function, President Trump increasingly makes decisions based on a network of informal advisors and media sources. Domestic U.S. Considerations: The decision to launch the strike on Soleimani came during a period of high political tension in Washington, as it had been expected this month that the U.S. Senate would begin a trial in response to articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives in December. The Soleimani strike is being taken up by both Trump’s supporters and opponents as evidence of either his credentials as a decisive commander-in-chief or his unsuitability for office, depending on their perspective. Congress has proposed votes to limit President Trump’s independent authority to initiate hostilities with Iran, but this is unlikely to gain traction in the Senate. Separately, the first voting in the Democratic primary is less than one month away, and a sudden shift in focus to national security issues could have results that are difficult to predict, either boosting those with national security credentials (such as former vice president Joe Biden and military veteran Pete Buttigieg), or rallying support among primary voters for anti-war (such as Bernie Sanders). Third-Party Perspectives and Responses: Iraq: The strike at Baghdad International Airport that killed Soleimani also killed the deputy commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Front, a coalition of militias that forms a part of Iraq’s official security apparatus. Iraq’s new Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has condemned the attack as a “massive breach of sovereignty” and an “aggression on Iraq”. Iraq’s parliament passed a draft law on January 5th calling for the removal of all foreign troops from Iraqi soil, but the law was non-binding and the session had been boycotted by most of the Sunni and Kurdish members of the legislature. Iranian presence has also been the recent target of Iraqi ire, such as in November when a crowd of Iraqis burned down the Iranian consulate in the Shi’a holy city of Najaf, and the Iraqi government will likely try to play both sides against each other to maximize its leverage for military and financial support. Withdrawal from Iraq would mean that the remaining American forces in Syria could no longer be supplied or supported through the western desert of Iraq and would therefore also have to be withdrawn. Iran will likely seek to use all its considerable levers of influence in Iraq to convince the government to see through the expulsion of American forces. The United States leaving Iraq and Syria due to Soleimani’s death would be a fitting legacy from the Iranian perspective and a perverse one from the American perspective given that Soleimani was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American servicemembers in Iraq (and thousands of Iraqi civilians) through his support for Shi’a militias in the mid-to-late 2000s. Europe: Statements from European capitals emphasized the need for restraint and de-escalation. French President Macron is likely to view this event as further justification for his proposals that the EU develop a defense and security apparatus independent of NATO in order to avoid being entangled by potentially reckless American actions. Iran will likely continue to use this event as an opportunity to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Europe on the nuclear program and other issues, and their chosen retaliation was likely calibrated at least in part to allow them to continue positioning themselves as a responsible actor. For his part, Trump is urging the European signatories to join him in walking away from the JCPOA in order to increase Iran’s international isolation. United Kingdom: The British government has tried to tread a fine line in its responses to the strike, with Prime Minister Johnson calling for de-escalation while also stating that he “will not lament” the fact that Soleimani is dead. The U.K. is likely trying to balance its desire to remain aligned with France and Germany in trying to keep the JCPOA together with its traditional close alliance with the United States and Johnson’s personal relationship with President Trump. Russia: Unsurprisingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the American strike, which removed a valuable interlocutor for Russian forces in Syria. Russian troops and Iranian-backed militias in Syria had periodically found themselves with diverging interests in their campaign to support the Assad regime, and Soleimani performed a critical function in directing the activities of those militias to ensure that both Russia and Iran achieved their strategic objectives in Syria. A potential American withdrawal from Iraq and Syria would advance Russia’s interest in establishing itself as the indispensable foreign power in resolving the crisis in Syria and within the region more broadly. China: In line with their long-standing principle of non-intervention and their own interest, China condemned the strike, but the response was muted overall. Chinese interests are primarily economic and tied to ensuring a steady supply of petroleum. One of China’s newest and most capable naval destroyers recently participated in trilateral naval exercises with Iran and Russia in the Gulf of Oman. Although such exercises primarily serve a strategic messaging and diplomatic function, they do signal an emerging alignment of interests between the three states that would be significant for the response to any future crises.
Optimizing the delivery speed promise can boost sales
After the coronavirus pandemic forced most of the country into lockdown, online shopping soared. According to CCInsights.org, by the end of April 2020 there was a 146% year-over-year increase in U.S. and Canadian online retail orders. Amazon was so overwhelmed by the combination of increased demand, logistical nightmares, and warehouse worker safety issues that the company announced significant delays in its Amazon Prime shipping speeds. When the company announced it would prioritize the shipping of essential items, the online retailer’s third-party sellers were left to manage their own shipping — something Amazon usually did for them. Shoppers who placed orders for non-essential products at the end of March sometimes received estimated delivery dates of more than a month away. While consumers often received their orders sooner than the 30-day estimate, for Prime shoppers used to getting their items delivered for free the next day, the change in delivery speed was a shock. Amazon shoppers turned to alternative outlets that promised much quicker delivery speeds. Companies with strong e-commerce positions and supply chains, such as Walmart, took advantage of Amazon’s situation. “People are very sensitive to delivery and how fast they can get products,” said Ruomeng Cui, assistant professor in information systems & operations management. “Maybe, just maybe, Amazon would be able to deliver faster than one month, but they chose to promise customers one month — that was their choice.” Unfortunately for Amazon, by setting conservative delivery speed promises, they exacerbated an already bad situation. According to Cui’s paper “Sooner or Later? Promising Delivery Speed in Online Retail” (Ruomeng Cui, Tianshu Sun, Zhikun Lu and Joseph M. Golden), optimizing delivery speed promise can have a substantial effect on a company’s sales. How substantial? Without changing the actual delivery speed itself — only the delivery speed promise — Cui’s research showed that when the retailer promised customers one day faster shipping, sales increased, profits increased, and customers spent more on each order. “It’s a very critical decision for retailers to try to determine how to manage delivery and how to manage the information aspect of delivery,” added Cui. The study is attached and found two key findings: The value of communicating delivery times From a customer satisfaction standpoint, the conservative disclosure lowered customer satisfaction while the aggressive disclosure didn’t affect the company’s satisfaction score, although it did increase product returns when shipping speed was overly aggressive and products were delivered late. “These results indicate that in our research context, promising customers a faster delivery speed can boost sales and profitability but at the cost of a higher product return rate,” the researchers wrote. They go on to caution retailers that promising a conservative shipping speed can be costly. “It’s a careful balance that companies need to think about — how to manage customers’ expectations properly,” explained Cui. Crafting the delivery promise Given online retailers’ adoption of machine learning, Cui believes companies could tweak their algorithms to explore what products and which types of customers are more tolerant to over-promising as it relates to the delivery speed promise. “Companies can then use the analysis to customize and differentiate the types of products that adopt different types of information strategies,” Cui said. “Just change your algorithm, learn and incorporate some of the data-driven decisions and methods.” Going forward, Cui hopes to customize algorithms for companies in an effort to help them dynamically optimize how to promise the correct delivery speed to customers. While many companies, like Collage.com, don’t own their own delivery function and can’t change the actual delivery speed by changing infrastructure, these companies can “manage the information,” said Cui. “It’s easy, and I think it should be the retailer’s responsibility and job to optimize.” “I want to advocate for all retailers to think strategically in their information aspect,” said Cui. “Don’t let such an easily fixed lever just sit there at almost zero cost.” If you are a journalist looking to cover this study or speak with Professor Ciu about subjects like online shopping and operations management, simply click on her icon now to arrange an interview today.
Paper ballots, risk-limiting audits can help defend elections and democracy, IU study finds
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- With just over two months before the 2020 election, three professors at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business offer a comprehensive review of how other nations are seeking to protect their democratic institutions and presents how a multifaceted, targeted approach is needed to achieve that goal in the U.S., where intelligence officials have warned that Russia and other rivals are again attempting to undermine our democracy. But these concerns over election security are not isolated to the United States and extend far beyond safeguarding insecure voting machines and questions about voting by mail. Based on an analysis of election reforms by Australia and European Union nations, they outline steps to address election infrastructure security -- such as requiring paper ballots and risk-limiting audits -- as well as deeper structural interventions to limit the spread of misinformation and combat digital repression. "In the United States, despite post-2016 funding, still more than two-thirds of U.S. counties report insufficient funding to replace outdated, vulnerable paperless voting machines; further help is needed," said Scott Shackelford, associate professor of business law and ethics in the Kelley School, executive director of the Ostrom Workshop and chair of IU's Cybersecurity Program. "No nation, however powerful, or tech firm, regardless of its ambitions, is able to safeguard democracies against the full range of threats they face in 2020 and beyond. Only a multifaceted, polycentric approach that makes necessary changes up and down the stack will be up to the task." For example, Australia -- which has faced threats from China -- has taken a distinct approach to protect its democratic institutions, including reclassifying its political parties as "critical infrastructure." This is a step that the U.S. government has yet to take despite repeated breaches at both the Democratic and Republican national committees. Based on an analysis of election reforms by Australia and European Union nations, they outline steps to address election infrastructure security -- such as requiring paper ballots and risk-limiting audits -- as well as deeper structural interventions to limit the spread of misinformation and combat digital repression. "In the United States, despite post-2016 funding, still more than two-thirds of U.S. counties report insufficient funding to replace outdated, vulnerable paperless voting machines; further help is needed," said Scott Shackelford, associate professor of business law and ethics in the Kelley School, executive director of the Ostrom Workshop and chair of IU's Cybersecurity Program. "No nation, however powerful, or tech firm, regardless of its ambitions, is able to safeguard democracies against the full range of threats they face in 2020 and beyond. Only a multifaceted, polycentric approach that makes necessary changes up and down the stack will be up to the task." For example, Australia -- which has faced threats from China -- has taken a distinct approach to protect its democratic institutions, including reclassifying its political parties as "critical infrastructure." This is a step that the U.S. government has yet to take despite repeated breaches at both the Democratic and Republican national committees. The article, "Defending Democracy: Taking Stock of the Global Fight Against Digital Repression, Disinformation and Election Insecurity," has been accepted by Washington and Lee Law Review. Other authors are Anjanette "Angie" Raymond, associate professor of business law and ethics, and Abbey Stemler, assistant professor of business law and ethics, both at Kelley; and Cyanne Loyle, associate professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University and a global fellow at the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Aside from appropriating sufficient funds to replace outdated voting machines and tabulation systems, the researchers said that Congress should encourage states to refuse to fund voting machines with paperless ballots. The researchers also suggest requiring risk-limiting audits, which use statistical samples of paper ballots to verify official election results. Other suggested steps include: Congress requiring the National Institute of Standards and Technology to update their voting machine standards, which state and county election officials rely on when deciding which machines to purchase. Australia undertook such a measure. Creating a National Cybersecurity Safety Board to investigate cyberattacks on U.S. election infrastructure and issue post-elections reports to ensure that vulnerabilities are addressed. Working with universities to develop training for election officials nationwide to prepare them for an array of possible scenarios, and creating a cybersecurity guidebook for use by newly elected and appointed election officials. "With regards to disinformation in particular, the U.S. government could work with the EU to globalize the self-regulatory Code of Practice on Disinformation for social media firms and thus avoiding thorny First Amendment concerns," Raymond said. "It could also work to create new forums for international information sharing and more effective rapid alert and joint sanctions regimes. "The international community has the tools to act and hold accountable those actors that would threaten democratic institutions," added Stemler, who also is a faculty associate at Harvard University's Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society. "Failing the political will to act, pressure from consumer groups and civil society will continue to mount on tech firms, in particular Facebook, which may be sufficient for them to voluntarily expand their efforts in the EU globally, the same way that more firms are beginning to comply with its General Data Protection Regulation globally, as opposed to designing new information systems for each jurisdiction."
TORONTO, ON., May 29, 2020 — International Data Corporation (IDC) Canada announced today the release of 20 new research reports to help vendors understand the impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian ICT market, including five new forecast documents. In addition, most analysts have created an additional report analyzing the impact of COVID-19 on their specific technology patch, providing our clients with additional details on the impact and guidance for vendors in that market. IDC Market Forecasts help technology suppliers identify market drivers and size, measure current performance, analyze leading market indicators, as well as plan for future opportunities and growth. The five forecast reports are listed below: Canadian Communications Services Forecast, 2020–2024: COVID-19 Turns Telecom Inside Out (IDC# CA45063520 ). This IDC study presents IDC Canada's five-year forecasts for communications services spending by market and customer segments, company size, industry sector, and region for 2020–2024 based on the annual update of IDC Canada's Communications Market Model and replaces our previous comprehensive spring and fall 2019 forecasts. "Communications providers are largely recession proof and fortunately investments in next-gen network technologies and architectures are allowing communications service providers to cope with unrivalled demand," says study coauthor Lawrence Surtees, vice president of Communications Research and principal analyst at IDC Canada. "But the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic is still a great unknown and its associated economic shocks could dramatically impact the current forecast." Canadian IT Professional Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC# CA45064220 ). This IDC study provides the spring 2020 market size and forecasts for the Canadian IT professional services market. The professional services market is made up of four submarkets: Custom application development, IS consulting, Network consulting & integration, and Systems integration. "The Canadian IT professional services market relies on discretionary capital spending budgets, which are typically suspended or curtailed in times of economic uncertainty. 2020 will be a challenging year for professional services firms due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the market is expected to recover as the Canadian and global economies recover and businesses reinstate capital spending for IT projects," says Jim Westcott, research manager, Professional Services, IDC Canada. Canadian Infrastructure Outsourcing Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC#CA45058420). This IDC study provides IDC's forecast for the Canadian infrastructure outsourcing services market for 2020–2024. It is an update of the previous forecast published in Canadian Infrastructure Outsourcing Services Forecast, 2019–2023 (IDC #CA43804019, May 2019). "The infrastructure outsourcing market continues to change, and COVID-19 will likely accelerate change. The decline in 1st and 2nd Platform technologies is leading to slow outsourcing spending on these areas, while the growth in 3rd Platform technologies to support digital transformation are increasingly incorporated into outsourcing and managed service engagements," says Jason Bremner, research vice president, Industry and Business Solutions. Canadian Consumer Wireless, Internet, and Wireline Voice Services Forecast, 2020–2024 (IDC# CA45059520). "In an already-competitive consumer market in the middle of great technological change, the global Coronavirus pandemic and the precautionary restrictions it has placed on Canadians has not only caused drastic socioeconomic changes but has forced consumers to weigh out the value proposition of each consumer service," says coauthor Manish Nargas, senior analyst for Consumer Services and Mobility. "Survival of the fittest is the call of the hour, and it seems that some consumer services will fare better than others after the dust has settled. While easier said than done, service providers need to think beyond the today's losses in order to plan for tomorrow's win." Canadian Consumer TV Services Forecast, 2020-2024 (IDC#CA45059620). This IDC study examines the forecast for Canadian consumer TV services subscribers and revenue. It also addresses the factors shaping the market as well as the key drivers and inhibitors underlying the forecast. "TV service providers will have to bring out their A game as they look to harness their next-gen TV service capabilities and create symbiotic, seemingly 'complementary' partnerships with OTT video providers to keep consumer eyeballs on their TV service platforms all the while combating economic ill effects of COVID-19 restrictions in the short term," says coauthor Manish Nargas, senior analyst, Consumer Services and Mobility at IDC Canada. "Based on our forecasts from May 1, 2020, we’re looking at an unprecedented 5.4 per cent decline for the year for the combination of telecom and IT spending in Canada. The cumulative impact of trade restrictions, supply chain impairments, commodity price declines, significant lay-offs and freefalling consumer and business confidence has led to a more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market than we had predicted in early April," says Nigel Wallis, vice president, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. IDC develops detailed forecasting reports and analysis for major technology markets in Canada, which are published annually during the month of May. IDC's Forecast Scenario Assumptions for the Canadian ICT Market, 2020 and Beyond (IDC# CA46217620 , May 20 20 ) supports the underlying macroeconomic assumptions for each of the ICT market forecast reports. We also recently released a new interactive Canadian COVID-19 IT Impact Dashboard tool to help our clients visualize the impacts, in partnership with Rel8ed.to, which is available for everyone to use. For our clients that need to know the impact of the pandemic on ICT Spending beyond Canada’s borders, IDC created our global COVID-19 Resources microsite which contains more research reports, webinars, press releases and blog posts from around the world. We’ve also done a series of free webcasts for our clients with the first one on April 2 and the second one on May 6. Our third webcast in this series will occur on June 4th. Register today for COVID-19 Impact: Preparing for Recovery in the Canadian Tech Market. Here’s the list of our recently published Canadian-based COVID-19 research reports to help our clients meet the challenges from the pandemic, anticipate market changes and keep business moving: COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian ICT Market (IDC#CA46134820) Canadian Datacenter Infrastructure Action Item, Q2 2020: The Impact of COVID-19 (IDC#CA45057420) Impact of COVID-19: Canadian IT Services Market (IDC#CA46166120) All Priorities Aside: The Canadian Government's Singular Response to COVID-19 (IDC#CA46166920) The Impact of COVID-19: Canadian Security Solutions Market (IDC#CA46166520) Canadian Communications Service Provider Capex Spending, 2019–2020 (IDC#CA45063820) Canadian Government Wireless Price Policy - Ill-conceived and Horribly Timed (IDC# CA45663920) COVID-19 Business Impact: Hierarchy of Needs; Moving from Pandemic Risk Management to Organizational Agility (IDC# CA46228420) How is the Pandemic Crisis Impacting Digital Transformation in Canada? (IDC# CA46235620) Impact of COVID-19: Canadian Software as a Service Market (IDC# CA46166620) COVID-19 Impact: What’s Next for the Canadian Tech Market (IDC# CA46281820) COVID-19 Impact: Canadian Retail & Wholesale Market (IDC# CA45674020) COVID-19 Leadership: Canadian CIOs Strategize on Responses to COVID-19 (forthcoming) Critical Networks Provide Critical Care: Role of Communication Networks to Treat and Prevent COVID-19 (forthcoming) COVID-19 Impact: Canadian Vertical Markets Overview (forthcoming) For more information about the market forecast reports, the COVID-19 related reports, or to arrange a one on one interview with any of the report authors, please contact Cristina Santander at AskIDC@IDCcanada.com.
Precautionary Buying During a Disaster Can Create Other Challenges
After many stores sold out of necessities like toilet paper, paper towels, masks, cleaning products, and hand sanitizer, retailers across the United States are implementing purchasing limits on certain items as governmental leaders urge citizens to pace their buying habits during the COVID-19 pandemic. José Holguín-Veras, an endowed professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and director of the Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment, has studied this type of precautionary buying that happens before and after a disaster. These purchases are a natural human reaction to concern over potential shortages, but Holguín-Veras says they can also be problematic. After the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami disasters in Japan in 2011, Holguín-Veras found that demand for goods doubled. Following Superstorm Sandy, he learned that this type of demand removed critical supplies from the local area, delaying response as products had to come from further away. Holguín-Veras is available to speak about how this logistical stress can affect the overall disaster response, as well as initiatives that could lessen that impact including: agreements with key private-sector vendors to ensure critical supplies, campaigns to educate the public, and rationing and demand-management policies.
What are IDC's Tech Insights on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian Market?
Dear Member of the IDC Canada Community, As we all adapt to this ever changing environment, our Canadian team has been working behind the scenes analyzing the COVID-19 impact on the Canadian ICT market. This email provides you with tech insights, including updates on market outlook and further resources to help you make critical business decisions in the weeks and months ahead. Canadian Total IT Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down from 2.4% to -5.0% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Research Scenario The coronavirus outbreak across the world and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially affect the Canadian IT markets, severely accelerating the impact already felt from the supply-driven effects from Asia. In this extremely fluid scenario, International Data Corporation (IDC) now expects to see a significant slowdown in technology spending in 2020 across Canadian organizations, with IT spending expected to decline by -5.0%. As recently as December 2019, we were projecting a positive 2.4% growth rate for 2020. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for Q2 and Q3. "Technology vendors and buyers are rapidly adapting to the disruption and the extremely fast-moving market conditions," said Nigel Wallis , Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian IT market fully. However, given the sharp economic contraction, IDC recommends that all technology leaders recalibrate their strategies." IDC Canada has developed three scenarios to help technology providers and buyers with their short-term business and technology investment planning. "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3. Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4," said Tony Olvet , GVP Research, at IDC Canada. A Probable Scenario Depicting a Decline In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian IT spending to decline by -5.0% in constant currency terms this year, down from the 2.4% forecast published at the end of 2019. "When taking a broad historical view of Canadian IT spending across the past decade, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis is expected to exceed the levels of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. As such, it does represent the most significant deceleration in IT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time," said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. As restrictions of movement bite, supply-chain disruption becomes commonplace, and demand drops, Canadian IT spending will drop rapidly in Q2. Particularly manufacturing, personal and consumer services, transportation, and hospitality will be sharply curbed, as these industries are the most exposed to the COVID-19 crisis impact in the short-, mid-, and long-term view. At the same time, other sectors, such as healthcare and government, will be forced to accelerate investments significantly. IDC expects this will drive additional IT investments for the public sector, pushing hard on infrastructure and collaboration tools deployments, but not before the second half of 2020." In the most pessimistic scenario, IDC expects ICT spending to drop and record a –8.2% decline in 2020, with all technology domains showing negative trends for the remaining part of the year. A series of domino effects, including oil price changes, currency depreciation, the inability of governments to make timely payments, delays in the supply chains and significant lay-offs would lead to a much more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market and an exponential increase in the downside risk in IDC's market forecast assumptions. The new outlook is shaped primarily by lower expectations in the hardware and services markets: Hardware markets will suffer due to restriction measures hampering supply and overall reduced demand. Client Devices are particularly hit hard, initially because of supply constraints and in later quarters as reduced demand further erode growth. The most significant impact on the IT services industry will be a result of businesses postponing decisions on pending projects and slowing the execution of projects in the delivery phase. Spending reductions on the software and telecoms markets are less pronounced, and some positive factors are expected to moderate the natural downturn somewhat. While the decrease in hardware spending will also negatively impact the overall software market to a degree, difficulties prompted by COVID-19 across industries will impact total telecommunication spending (this will be examined in forthcoming IDC Canada research). At the same time, the increasing need for remote collaboration will push telecom services demand and drive new opportunities in the collaborative applications and platforms areas, as well as an increase in security technologies that enable them. The pre-existing digital maturity of industries will also be a factor impacting on their capacity to invest in technologies, regardless of their budget capabilities. Limited face-to-face business relationships between vendors and end-users will inevitably also reduce investment in significant digital transformation projects in less mature industries, and especially for projects involving more advanced technologies. Social distancing and provincial lock downs (the duration is hard to predict) will also have significant consequences on the purchasing options for many consumers. Additional factors weighing on investment will range from a decrease in customer demand to supply chains breaking up," said Meng Cong , Manager, Market Insights & Analytics at IDC Canada. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow. In use cases such as patient care as well as customer, citizen, student or employee experience and proximity, we expect to see accelerated adoption of digital solutions. Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." Register for our Complimentary Webcast Now On-Demand IDC's Canadian team is closely monitoring the evolution of the ICT market and its reaction to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios. If you are interested in knowing more about this, please register for the IDC Canada Complimentary Webcast COVID-19 Impact in the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
Knowing How to Help — And How Not to Help — After a Disaster Makes a Difference
The images coming out of Nashville as it begins to recover from a deadly tornado that tore through the city on March 3 are heartbreaking. As people in other parts of the country are moved to do something, it is important that they know which ways of helping are effective — and which are not. José Holguín-Veras, the director of the Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment at Rensselaer, can address this based on the research he's done in the area of humanitarian logistics. He has found that some well-intentioned attempts at assistance can even be counterproductive. Holguín-Veras' work was recently cited in an article written for The Conversation on this very topic. Julia Brooks, a Furman Public Policy Scholar at New York University, wrote: "One study led by José Holguín-Veras, a Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute expert on humanitarian logistics, found that 50% to 70% of the goods that arrive during these emergencies should never have been sent and interfere with recovery efforts. After the 2011 Joplin, Missouri, tornado and the Tōhoku, Japan, earthquake, for example, excessive donations of clothing and blankets tied up relief personnel." If you'd like to speak with Holguín-Veras about humanitarian logistics following this natural disaster, please click on his ExpertFile profile.
Experts in the media – Augusta’s Dr. Jose Vazquez is becoming the go-to expert for the coronavirus
It’s the news story that has health officials concerned and reporters scrambling – on almost every continent on the planet. The coronavirus, originating from China has gone global with new cases popping up in 17 countries to date. And as media are trying their best to explain the situation and accurately report just what the coronavirus is, how it is spread along with the symptoms and precautions and preventative measures – they’re relying on experts to ensure their stories are accurate. That’s where Augusta is helping. Dr. Jose Vazquez is an expert in the realm of infectious diseases. He studies and treats infectious diseases, including antibiotic-resistant superbugs and fungal infections. He has been a reliable source for local, statewide and national media regarding the coronavirus outbreak. Dr. Vasquez is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Can America’s Infrastructure Withstand The Digital Economy?
When a city like New York is facing a continuous delivery stream of more than 1.5 million packages a day, something has to give. The growing number of sales by Amazon and other online retailers, combined with rapid delivery options, is choking streets within major metropolitan cities. This issue was recently featured in The New York Times — and when the journalists needed an expert perspective, they contacted Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Here's an excerpt: The average number of daily deliveries to households in New York City tripled to more than 1.1 million shipments from 2009 to 2017, the latest year for which data was available, according to the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Center of Excellence for Sustainable Urban Freight Systems. “It is impossible to triple the amount,” said José Holguín-Veras, the center’s director and an engineering professor at Rensselaer, “without paying consequences.” Households now receive more shipments than businesses, pushing trucks into neighborhoods where they had rarely ventured. And it could be just the beginning. Just 10 percent of all retail transactions in the United States during the first quarter of 2019 were made online, up from 4 percent a decade ago, according to the Census Bureau. — The New York Times, October 28, 2019 If you are a reporter covering this or a similar topic, let our experts help! Professor José Holguín-Veras is the Director of the Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment (CITE) at Rensselaer. He is a leading authority in freight transportation and humanitarian logistics. Professor Holguín-Veras is available to speak with media regarding the ongoing difficulties cities are facing as shopping moves online and to the streets. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
2020 is going to be the year of politics – let Stephen Farnsworth be the expert you call first when you’re covering it. Like the final act in a great Shakespearean play – 2020 looks to be a year of tragedy, irony, comedy and intrigue. We can expect betrayal, vengeance, protagonists, antagonists, heroes and villains. With impeachment hearings, the DNC primaries, summer conventions, trade deals and the election that promises to be an epic display of speeches and stumping as well as vicious and vitriolic attacks. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is a sought-after political commentator on subjects ranging from presidential politics to the local Virginia congressional races. He has been widely featured in national media, including The Washington Post, Reuters, The Chicago Tribune and MSNBC. He is author or co-author of six books on presidential communication. His latest work, 'Late Night with Trump Political Humor and the American Presidency' shows how late-night political humor, have responded to the Trump presidency. Employing a dataset of more than 100,000 late night jokes going back decades, Farnsworth and S. Robert Lichter discuss how the treatment of Trump differs from previous presidents, and how the Trump era is likely to shape the future of political humor. Stephen is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
