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Think that call or online meeting is secure? You might want to ask an expert first?
As most of North America is now working from home, those trying to work are now finding board rooms and those always required meeting are now taking place online. Whether it is Webex, Zoom, Join.Me, Skype or even FaceTime – the convenience is ideal. But just how secure those calls are and whether or not someone is collecting, eavesdropping or recording might be altogether completely different. From Zoom’s CEO Eric Yuan: During normal operations, Zoom clients attempt to connect to a series of primary datacenters in or near a user’s region, and if those multiple connection attempts fail due to network congestion or other issues, clients will reach out to two secondary datacenters off of a list of several secondary datacenters as a potential backup bridge to the Zoom platform. In all instances, Zoom clients are provided with a list of datacenters appropriate to their region. This system is critical to Zoom’s trademark reliability, particularly during times of massive internet stress.” In other words, North American calls are supposed to stay in North America, just as European calls are supposed to stay in Europe. This is what Zoom calls its data center “geofencing.” But when traffic spikes, the network shifts traffic to the nearest data center with the most available capacity. China, however, is supposed to be an exception, largely due to privacy concerns among Western companies. But China’s own laws and regulations mandate that companies operating on the mainland must keep citizens’ data within its borders. April 03 - TechCrunch If you’re a journalist covering this topic, there’s still quite a few questions to be asked? What do users need to know about these platforms for meetings? Is there any information that shouldn’t be shared? Are there ways to guarantee enhanced security? And in these extraordinary times, does the risk outweigh the reward for businesses looking to carry on and stay afloat? If you’re asking – we’re here to help. Yoris A. Au is chair of the Department of Information Systems at Georgia Southern University. He is an expert in the areas of cyber security and telecommunications. Yoris is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
As the world still isolates, social distances and stays at home – the concerns about the economy are always top of mind. Jobs, investments and paying bills are a daily topic at home and in the media. The initial spin that there’s nothing to worry about as whatever was lost is bound to bounce back once we’re back to normal is starting to fade. No one knows when that bounce back will start and the idea of back to normal, what it will look like and when is at best a guess for anyone. Public health experts are beginning to make predictions about when coronavirus infection rates will peak. Economists are calculating when the cost of continuing to shutter restaurants, shopping malls and other businesses — a move that has already pushed some 10 million Americans into unemployment, with millions more on the way — will outweigh the savings from further efforts to slow the virus once the infection curve has flattened out. Government officials are setting competing targets. President Trump has pushed his expected date of reopening the economy to the end of April. “We have to get back to work,” he said in a briefing on Saturday. “We have to open our country again. We don’t want to be doing this for months and months and months. We’re going to open our country again. This country wasn’t meant for this.” Some governors have set much more conservative targets, like Ralph Northam of Virginia, who canceled the remainder of the school year and imposed a shelter-at-home order through June 10. Other states, like Florida, only recently agreed to shut activity down but have set more aggressive targets — April 30, in the case of the Sunshine State — to restart it. April 06 – New York Times So when will it be back, what’s lost forever and how long to recover are the million-dollar questions. And if you are a journalist covering America’s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic – then let us help with your stories. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
The race for the White House is still on – is anyone paying attention?
No matter what, this is an election year. In fact, despite a crisis of any proportion, according to the U.S. Constitution, the end of term for any sitting President happens this January. But as the Democrats try and figure out what is left of their primary and President Trump is embroiled in the COVID-19 pandemic, what remains of the campaigns on either side of the aisle is anyone's guess. Journalists and pollsters are still paying attention, and no doubt the campaigns are keeping close watch, but how the candidates move forward without rallies, the requisite handshaking and the whistle-stop events may force a new approach to engaging voters and getting messages across for November. How each candidate behaves, reacts and endures during this crisis may also be critical to swaying voters about competence and leadership. Biden, who does not currently hold office, has been struggling to stay in the public eye as the coronavirus forced millions of Americans inside their homes. While Trump has held daily televised briefings about the virus, Biden has had to shut down fundraisers and other campaign events, and election officials in many states have postponed their nominating contests. Still, the poll found that the number of people who approve of Trump in general, and also those who like the way he has handled the U.S. coronavirus response, has changed very little over the past few weeks. About 44% said they approved of Trump's overall performance, and 48% said they liked the way he had responded to the coronavirus outbreak. April 01 - Reuters The election is going to happen this November - but how it is done and which campaign masters the new normal of politics is still unknown. If you are a journalist looking to know more or cover this topic – then let our experts help. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is a sought-after political commentator on subjects ranging from presidential politics to the local Virginia congressional races. He has been widely featured in national media, including The Washington Post, Reuters, The Chicago Tribune and MSNBC. He is author or co-author of six books on presidential communication. His latest work, "Late Night with Trump: Political Humor and the American Presidency" examines the role late night television has played in shaping the perception of presidential politics. Dr. Farnsworth is available to speak with media and help with your coverage – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
COVID-19 and a sustainable transition
As the COVID-19 pandemic touches almost every aspect of society, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the slowdowns and shutdowns may inadvertently enable us to shape a new conception of prosperity and good livelihood. What has the global slowdown meant for the environment and sustainable living, and what could it mean if some of the radical changes in our everyday lifestyles and consumption habits persisted long-term? As Maurie Cohen, professor in New Jersey Institute of Technology's department of humanities, explains, "Since we are all living through this unique moment, observing the responses by government, businesses and ordinary people, it marks an opportune time to explore if these changes can provide leverage points for opening pathways to a sustainability transition." The topic attracted a diverse group of scientists, economists, educators and hundreds more around the world virtually during a live webinar titled, “COVID-19 Can Help Wealthier Nations Prepare for a Sustainability Transition.” The open forum-style event, organized by researchers from the international sustainability organization FutureEarth, set up an online discussion on the major global sustainability trends and issues that have evolved in recent months alongside the coronavirus outbreak. Read more: Cohen is available to speak with media directly on issues related to COVID-19 and sustainability. To arrange an interview, click on the button below.
Drinking alcoholic beverages may be more appealing amid unease about the coronavirus, as people deal with shelter-at-home orders, fears about the economy and boredom, says a Baylor University researcher who studies alcohol use and misuse. But with regulations providing less access to alcohol, this may be a good time for individuals struggling with alcohol use to begin recovery and for others to guard against over-relying on alcohol or other substances. When bars and restaurants began closing — other than for such options as pickup, delivery or drive-through — liquor stores saw a surge in business, according to news reports. But Pennsylvania closed its liquor stores — some people defied stay-at-home orders and drove to liquor stores in neighboring states — and New Hampshire recently closed some of its liquor stores, according to reports. Other states who deemed the businesses “essential” also may take another look at the issue. How to grapple with the risks of substance use and misuse during this stressful time is the subject of this Q&A with Sara Dolan, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at Baylor University, who has done extensive research on substance use and misuse. Q: There are memes — some of them humorous — going around about heavy alcohol use during quarantine. Why might people be drinking more than usual? DOLAN: People have many different motivations for drinking, and I think self-isolation amplifies some of those. First, people drink to feel good. For some, being out of the normal work routine may feel like a time to let loose. People also drink to feel less bad. It would be normal to feel out of sorts now that we are social distancing. It also would be normal to feel some boredom, and certainly we feel anxiety and uneasiness about our current circumstances. Alcohol may be seen by some as a way to cope with those negative feelings. Q: How might the “new normal” be especially hard for alcoholics? Could this be a time to begin recovery? Some may be social distancing from drinking buddies, although that wouldn’t stop drinking alone. DOLAN: A forced lack of access to alcohol through social distancing and bars being closed can be a great jumping-off point for someone to begin recovery, especially when people are physically distancing from the people they drink or use with. But this can be an especially tough time for people because they may not be able to cope with all the new stressors, especially if they don’t have access to their typical means of coping. For example, for someone who usually relies on friends and family for support, social distancing can cause more stress. And loneliness is especially difficult when it is stacked on top of economic, illness and other anxieties we are experiencing. It is important for us to reach out, from a distance, to family and friends and other resources to help us cope positively so we don’t turn to drinking or other drug use to help us cope. I worry about people who are very heavy drinkers who suddenly stop drinking. Alcohol withdrawal, which can happen when a very heavy drinker stops drinking suddenly, can be very dangerous. Symptoms include anxiety, shakiness, sweatiness, headaches, nausea and even hallucinations – seeing and hearing things others don’t see or hear — and seizures. If someone who usually drinks very heavily and suddenly stops drinking experiences these symptoms, immediate medical attention is necessary. Q: What strategies would you suggest as far as dealing with heavy drinking during this time – both for drinkers and for those who love them? DOLAN: We really all need to be compassionate toward one another, regardless of our individual struggles. This is a difficult time for everyone – it is normal during a crisis like this to feel anxious and even depressed. Support is very important, both for those who are struggling and for those who seem like they are doing fine. This support can take a lot of different forms, from offering an ear to listen to offering specific strategies, such as mutual recovery groups (such as Alcoholics Anonymous, offered online) and other coping resources, like apps. Here is a list of just a few of the apps that may help people cope with stress: Breathe2Relax iChill Personal Zen Self-Help for Anxiety Management T2Mood Tracker The Mindfulness App - meditate Q: What about groups like Alcoholics Anonymous during this time, who because of guidelines against large gatherings may miss in-person support? DOLAN: There are quite a few digital resources to support recovery from alcohol and substance abuse. Here are just a few: Alcoholics Anonymous Narcotics Anonymous Smart Recovery Groups Al-Anon Recovery Groups for loved ones of those struggling with problematic alcohol use Q: Is there anything else you would like to add? DOLAN: We know that during times of crisis, rates of anxiety, depression and suicidal behaviors increase, and those feelings and behaviors can be exacerbated by heavier alcohol or drug use. Let’s do all that we can to care for those around us. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s oldest and largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and seven academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit www.baylor.edu/artsandsciences.
Artificial Intelligence Playing a Powerful Role in Understanding and Fighting COVID-19
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a powerful new ally in tracking COVID-19, modeling the virus at the molecular level, and analyzing the myriad research results being published daily. James Hendler, the Tetherless World Professor of Computer, Web, and Cognitive Sciences at Rensselaer, and director of the Rensselaer Institute of Data Exploration and Applications, is leading campus efforts to marshal AI resources for the purpose of battling the virus. “The bottom line is that, at heart, dealing with COVID-19 is a ‘big data’ problem, and AI is a crucial tool in the big data toolkit,” Hendler said. For example, IDEA and the Rensselaer Libraries have collaborated to maintain lists of COVID-19-related data sources and scholarly research publications. AI is being used to translate literally thousands of scientific insights from text-based research products into forms that can more easily be analyzed. Hendler and other Rensselaer AI experts are also involved in studying the spread of the virus under different policy measures at the local, then state and national, and ultimately global scale. Additionally, Rensselaer is part of the national COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium, which is offering researchers access to supercomputers for COVID-19 research. In addition to AiMOS, the most powerful supercomputer housed at a private university, Rensselaer is offering access to the expertise of world-class faculty, including in artificial intelligence. Hendler said AiMOS is one of the few facilities that can truly offer a platform optimized for artificial intelligence computing. “AI has helped us achieve an excellent understanding of the coronavirus and its interactions at the molecular level. That’s going to make it possible not only to model the virus, but also how it will interact with potential drug targets and vaccines,” said Hendler. “A platform like AiMOS is invaluable for molecular modeling in drug discovery, helping scientists cope with a huge and rapidly changing literature, and exploring means to model, and then mitigate, the spread of the disease. These are the kinds of things that modern AI can do.” Hendler has authored over 400 books, technical papers and articles in the areas of Semantic Web, artificial intelligence, agent-based computing and high performance processing. One of the originators of the “Semantic Web,” Hendler is the former Chief Scientist of the Information Systems Office at the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and was awarded a US Air Force Exceptional Civilian Service Medal. Among other organizations, he is a member of the National Academies Board on Research Data and Information, a fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration, and he serves as chair of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) U.S. technology policy committee.
Baylor Remote-Work Expert Shares Tips with The New York Times
Sara Perry, Ph.D., assistant professor of management in Baylor University's Hankamer School of Business, is a nationally recognized expert on remote work and working from home. In 2018, Perry led a team of management researchers who examined the relationship between stress and remote work, which resulted in a study published in the European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology. Dr. Perry was recently a featured expert in The New York Times' piece by Jen A. Miller, "How To Work From Home, If You've Never Done It Before," which was written as millions of people were suddenly faced with launching home offices as a result of COVID-19. Regarding setting boundaries: But being expected to work from home full time while also home-schooling children full time is just not going to be realistic, said Sara Perry, assistant professor of management at Baylor University. “There’s a lot demanding of your time and energy and resources right now,” she said. This may mean having conversations with managers about adjusting their expectations, given the extraordinary circumstances. On the topic of "putting work away": For those who are used to working in an office, the evening commute is often a way to end the work day and begin home life. Dr. Perry said it’s important to continue to make the same transition, even if you’re just moving from one spot on the couch to the other. So put your work materials and your laptop away (or just shut work applications if you want to use your computer for something else). She added that this is crucial right now because “you’re already being challenged in terms of your personal resources,” she said. “You still have to take that recovery time from work.”
Will schools reopen before semester ends? Georgia Southern pandemic expert can give perspective
While education has moved into homes across the country because of the COVID-19 pandemic, people are wondering if the shutdowns will actually help stop the spread of the disease. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Ph.D., a digital health expert and infectious disease epidemiologist at Georgia Southern University, said school closures can delay the peak of the outbreak, reduce the amount of cases and decelerate the spread of the virus. Fung was a part of a study in 2015 that modeled a potential flu pandemic. The study showed that delaying the spread of a virus can give health care professionals more time to come up with vaccines and other treatments, as well as giving the system time to brace itself for the onslaught of patients. “The key message of my paper is not necessarily how quickly we shut down schools,” Fung told Rolling Stone. “It is the duration of school closure that matters. Whenever we relax social distancing measures, we will see a bounce-back of the cases, unless we are able to completely block all transmission chains and have driven the case number to zero — i.e., extinction of the virus, as in the case of SARS in 2003.” While some think opening schools and other public places would benefit the economy, Fung said doing so could leave the country vulnerable. “To save the U.S. economy, we must control this disease first,” Hung said to Rolling Stone. “That is what China is going to achieve — even if they have already suffered a great deal economically due to COVID-19. That is why (Narendra) Modi asks the whole of India to stay home for three weeks. That is also what Boris Johnson asks the British people to do now. The Americans should take heed.” Fung analyses social media data for public health surveillance and health communication and uses digital technologies for public health interventions. He investigates the transmission of communicable diseases with a focus on respiratory infections and environmentally transmitted infections. He applied a variety of methods, from classical statistical methods to machine learning and mathematical modeling, to address public health problems and to provide solutions to policymakers. He is especially interested in assisting public health agencies in their responses to public health emergencies. Fung is available to speak with media regarding this topic — simply reach out to Georgia Southern Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview.
Are Home Prices in Peril? FAU Expert Says Coronavirus Stimulus May Hold the Key
The United States housing market faces its biggest threat in more than a decade, and whether home prices can withstand the new coronavirus pandemic largely depends on an effective stimulus package, said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist in Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed a historic $2 trillion stimulus to boost a battered U.S. economy, and getting the aid exactly right is the key to avoiding the first sustained setback to home prices since the end of the housing boom in 2006, according to Johnson. “If the stimulus package ends up being more than we need, this will almost certainly trigger a non-trivial amount of inflation in the economy, which will increase mortgage rates, which, in turn, will place downward pressure on housing prices,” Johnson said. “If the stimulus is not sufficient enough to hold down unemployment and it increases the likelihood of mortgage default, mortgage rates will rise and put downward pressure on housing prices. Only if the stimulus is just right will increasing inflation and higher unemployment be held in check.” Fixed rates for 30-year mortgages rose from 3.29 percent on March 5 to 3.65 percent on March 19, before moving down to 3.5 percent last week as the stimulus gained momentum. The higher rates are an indication that investors are factoring in inflation and the higher likelihood of default, though the recent downward trend suggests that it was the threat of rising default probabilities that was having the bigger impact on mortgage rates, according to Johnson. Since bottoming in March 2012, U.S. home prices rose 61 percent over the next seven and a half years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. The nation’s housing market rebounded from a devastating downturn when investors started renovating and reselling properties after buying them at deep discounts. The market has been robust ever since, but Zillow Group recently suspended its home-buying program as a result of the pandemic and how it may affect the housing market. The move means Zillow is worried that housing prices are at risk, according to Johnson. If mortgage rates were to climb from 3.5 percent to 5 percent, it would result in a 43 percent increase in the interest portion of a housing payment, dramatically reducing the purchasing power for consumers. “Only time will tell here,” Johnson said. “We are in uncharted waters, making it difficult to tell when and if we got the stimulus package right.” If you are a journalist covering how real estate and property values are being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic – then let our experts help. Ken Johnson is the associate dean and Investments Limited professor in the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University. Ken is available to speak to media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview and time.
