Experts Matter. Find Yours.
Connect for media, speaking, professional opportunities & more.
As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded and healthcare organizations began experiencing shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE), faculty, staff and students at Georgia Southern University stepped up to fulfill a need. Making use of the 3D printers on the Statesboro and Armstrong campuses, as well as at the FabLab at the Business Innovation Group’s (BIG) downtown Statesboro location, the campus communities quickly began production of protective face shields and respirators. “We can’t afford to sit back and wait for things to happen,” said Dominique Halaby, DPA, director of the BIG. “We have to make them happen. We have this responsibility to make a difference, to be a part of that front line, whether it’s immediately in our community, our state or our respective area.” To date, the Department of Manufacturing Engineering has sent 200 3D-printed protective face shields with headbands to Augusta, Georgia, for healthcare workers at Augusta Medical Center, while the BIG has sent 100 face shields and 10 “Montana Masks,” a 3D-printable respirator filtration mask that can be fitted to a healthcare provider’s face and sanitized between uses, to Atlanta-area hospitals. The Department of Mechanical Engineering on the Armstrong Campus has also printed Montana Masks that will be delivered to workers in the St. Joseph’s/Candler Hospital System (SJCHS) in Savannah, Georgia, while the Respiratory Therapy Program in the Waters College of Health Professions donated 10 ventilators to the Georgia Emergency Management Agency. “I am unbelievably proud of our faculty, staff and students who have their own families to take care of, but are putting themselves on the line to help our medical professionals in this time of critical need,” said Mohammad Davoud, Ph.D., dean of the Allen E. Paulson College of Engineering and Computing. Wayne Johnson, Ph.D., professor of mechanical engineering, believes providing these materials to the Savannah community during a time of critical need is reinforcing a longtime commitment to the region. “The Armstrong Campus of Georgia Southern has a long history of working within the Savannah community, and during this pandemic, it was especially important for mechanical engineering faculty and students at the Armstrong Campus to step up during a time of great need,” said Johnson. “ Our work with SJCHS to develop, test and donate 3D-printed respirators may also lead to other research and development collaborations in the post-COVID-19 future.” In addition to benefiting area healthcare workers, Johnson believes this project is a great way for students to put their classroom skills into practice. If you would like to learn more about how the students, staff and faculty at Georgia Southern University are helping out during the COVID-19 crisis – the let our experts help. Wayne Johnson is an expert in additive manufacturing, mechatronics, biomechanics and engineering education. He is available to speak with media about this great initiative, simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
Scarcity reduces consumers' concerns about prices, research shows
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- During the current pandemic, panicked overbuying of products such as toilet paper, cleaning products and similar items often has led to limited options for consumers and empty store shelves. What's often left are generic or lower-priced branded products. According to new research from the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, it may not be because consumers during this crisis are viewing higher-priced products as having better quality. A paper published in the Journal of Consumer Research finds that scarcity actually decreases consumers' tendency to use price to judge a product's quality. "Scarcity is aversive and triggers the desire to compensate for the shortage, and to seek abundance," said paper co-author Ashok Lalwani, associate professor of marketing at Kelley. "People who face scarcity are less likely to view less vs. more expensive options as belonging to different categories, and thus are open to differences at either or both ends of the price continuum." This is the first paper to directly show the impact of scarcity on price-quality judgments. The findings are applicable amid times of economic crisis, natural disasters and social disturbances. "We suggest that people may not only differ in terms of how they categorize purchases, but also in terms of the extent to which they categorize, and scarcity reduces the tendency," Lalwani said. While consumers frequently judge the quality of a product based on its price, they change their thinking during times of scarcity and are less likely to categorize objects and less likely to use the price of a product to infer its quality, Lalwani and his co-authors found. The business implications for managers at high-end stores or those who want to increase sales of high-priced items are numerous. Lalwani suggested that one way such managers can activate the belief that higher prices indicate higher quality is by varying context or environmental factors. This could include encouraging consumers -- such as through contests or sweepstakes -- to categorize assorted items by price to facilitate the use of price-tiers as a basis for judging a product's quality. "The same objective could also be attained by reducing consumers' desire for abundance," Lalwani said. "For example, inside the store, managers could have portraits, displays or ads highlighting the harmful effects of gluttony or hoarding behavior. Doing so may increase customers' price-quality inferences and shift them from purchasing lower-priced to higher-priced goods. "Our findings also suggest that when stronger price-quality inferences are desired, retailers are advised to avoid utilizing scarcity messages, such as 'sale ends this week' or 'while supplies last,' especially for product categories in which the proportion of high-priced items is high, as priming scarcity among consumers may decrease their price-quality inferences." Other authors of the paper, "The Impact of Resource Scarcity on Price-Quality Judgments," were Hanyong Park, assistant professor of marketing at the Eli Brand College of Business at Michigan State, and David Silvera, retired associate professor of marketing at the University of Texas at San Antonio.
As the race for the White House continues, speculations are growing on who former Vice President Joe Biden will have as his running mate. As of late, the direction Biden is being shown is to choose a woman of color. After a devastating start to the Democratic primary, Biden’s campaign was revived when black voters in South Carolina and throughout the south overwhelmingly sided with him. Now that he is the presumptive Democratic nominee, black voters and leaders are pressing for him to pick a black woman as his running mate. Biden launched a committee last week to begin vetting possible candidates for the vice presidency, a process he has said will likely last through July. He has already committed to picking a woman. But black voters and leaders say he needs to go further and pick a black woman. They argue that Biden’s success – and that of the Democratic Party as a whole – depends on black people turning out to vote in November. They want a tangible return for their loyalty to the democratic party. Political analysts like Augusta University Political Science Professor Dr. Gregg Murray say Sen. Kamala Harris from California and former Georgia governor candidate Stacey Abrams are the two standout choices that fit this bill. Although Harris and Abrams each bring positives to Biden’s campaign, Murray says they both have some baggage. “Harris is respected in the senate and including Abrams on the ticket could help the Democrats penetrate the traditionally GOP voting south,” said Murray. “However, Harris has an unfavorable record among critics of criminal justice reform and Abram’s lost in Georgia’s governor’s race raises questions on her electability beyond her home territory. I’m sure Biden’s team will consider all the facts before making their final decision.” As campaigns need to revamp and reconsider strategy in an election run in the wake of a pandemic, getting the ticket in order might come sooner than later. And if you are a reporter covering this topic, then let our expert help. Murray, professor of political science at Augusta University, is available to talk about the upcoming election. Murray’s research focuses on political behavior and psychology with specific interests in voter mobilization and turnout. He is also executive director of the Association for Politics and the Life Sciences. He has been featured on CNN and is a go-to for national media covering campaigns. Click on his name to request an interview.
As the world watches – Many wonder who is next in line in to the throne in North Korea?
It’s the rumor that won’t go away. The mysterious leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un is dealing with serious health issues. Some are even speculating death may be close or has even potentially occurred. The news of a nuclear armed rogue nation that could soon be leaderless has the west watching and worried. If you’re a journalist covering, there are many questions to be asked. What is the succession plan for North Korea’s leadership? Will the traditionally patriarchal country allow Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's younger sister to ascend to power? Are there more distant relatives who could make a claim to the role? Is there a chance North Korea could accept a change in power structure or even adopt a non-dictatorial style of government? And, is now the opportunity for change in North Korea? If you are covering, we’re here to help. Dr. Glen Duerr's research interests include comparative politics and international relations theory. Glen is an expert on this subject and is available to speak to media regarding this topic– simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Forecasting demand of any product for industry, manufacturing and even retail is already a difficult task. And now, amid a global pandemic that has seen some industries grind to a halt while others ramp up to keep up - means that measuring expectations about demand is key to corporate survival during these trying times. We have not experienced a global pandemic like the coronavirus in last 100 years. The sheer increase in demand for everyday necessities like toilet paper, sanitary wipes and bottled water is putting undo stress on a lean global supply chain. It is testing the agility of many retailers and consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies as they attempt to ramp up manufacturing facilities and logistical operations while struggling to keep up with consumer demand. Business executives are looking to data, analytics, and technology for answers on how to predict and plan for the surge and, ultimately, the decline in consumer demand. It is significantly easier to shut down facilities than it is to quickly boost production and capacity. The biggest unknown is whether there will be a delayed economic recovery or a prolonged contraction. Regardless of the outcome, retailers and their CPG suppliers will need to think ahead and be prepared to act quickly. March 25 – RIS News There are so many angles and aspects of our daily life that need to be covered during the COVID-19 outbreak – and if you are a journalist looking at how business and industry are adapting during this crisis, the let our experts help. Dr. Karen Sedatole is the Goizueta Advisory Board Term Professor of Accounting. She has conducted extensive research on forecasting and capacity management that can shed light on the challenges of responding to the current uncertain environment. Karen is available to speak with media – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.
As the global pandemic touches almost all parts of the United States – it is essential that the public receives only accurate and definitive information from credible and expert sources as news, media and information reaches million of people across the country. An invisible enemy is killing thousands and forcing people worldwide to cower behind closed doors. Unfounded conspiracy theories and miracle “cures” abound on social media. Politicians and pundits send mixed messages about how to protect yourself. Who you gonna call? - Bedford Gazette, April 14 As the coronavirus rampages, the public increasingly is turning to experts in academia and government -- the educated, experienced “elites” that many Americans had tuned out. The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) situation is certainly new to all of us. As guidance from the CDC changes and instructional methods transition, there are experts at Georgia Southern who can help to answer questions such as: How should we best address this pandemic as a nation? How should we best address this pandemic individually? What does it mean to “flatten the curve?" What is the economic impact of COVID-19? How do you best manage employees virtually? Why are grocery stores having trouble keeping inventory on their shelves? Should we prepare for a lapse in groceries and goods? What contributes to the fear and panic in disasters and pandemics? What do educators, parents and students need to know to prepare for online learning in the K-12 and college settings? If you are a reporter covering COVID-19, let the team of experts from Georgia Southern help with your coverage. Public Health: Atin Adhikari, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Adhikari brings over 15 years of extensive research experience on aerosols, airborne microorganisms, other air pollutants, and related respiratory disorders. His current research areas include environmental air quality, exposure assessment, occupational health and safety, environmental microbiology, and respiratory health. Before joining JPHCOPH, Dr. Adhikari was also involved (Co-I) with two DoD-DTRA and U.S. Office of Naval Research funded projects on inactivation of hazardous microorganisms. Chun Hai (Isaac) Fung, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung is a digital health expert and an infectious disease epidemiologist. He analyses social media data for public health surveillance and health communication and uses digital technologies for public health interventions. He investigates the transmission of communicable diseases with a focus on respiratory infections and environmentally transmitted infections. He applied a variety of methods, from classical statistical methods to machine learning and mathematical modeling, to address public health problems and to provide solutions to policy-makers. He is especially interested in assisting public health agencies in their responses to public health emergencies. He is currently a guest researcher with the Health Economics and Modeling Unit, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Examples of his recent projects include: Surveillance of unplanned school closures through social media platforms, Analysis of social media posts pertinent to public health emergencies, such as Ebola, MERS and Zika. Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Pandemics, panic and the public: Amy Ballagh, Ed.D. Associate Vice President of Enrollment Management Featured in the Washington Post : Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Jodi Caldwell, Ph.D. Executive Director of the Georgia Southern University Counseling Center On a national level, Dr. Caldwell is currently serving her second elected term to the Directorate Board of the Commission for Counseling and Psychological Services of the American College Personnel Association and is a certified Red Cross Disaster Mental Health Responder. COVID-19 and logistics, the economy and the workforce: Alan Mackelprang, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Currently the director of the Ph.D. in Logistics and Supply Chain Management program, his research interests include examining interdependencies among supply chain partners, JIT/Lean production, manufacturing flexibility as well as supply chain integration. Scott Ellis, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Scott Ellis’ research interests center on the study of purchasing and supply management processes and functions. He has published in Journal of Operations Management and Journal of Supply Chain Management, among others. Richard McGrath, Ph.D. Professor, Parker College of Business Richard McGrath researches immigration, consumer survey methodology, and applied microeconomics. He is a long time expert on the economy in Savannah and the Coastal Empire. Michael Toma, Ph.D. Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Economics Michael Toma is a professor and lead analyst for the Center for Business Analytics and Economic Research, a student- and faculty-staffed applied research group focused on the Savannah-area economy that works with many local partners on special initiatives, customized applied business research and impact studies. Based on Toma's analytics, the Center publishes the quarterly Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, a closely watched economic report. Toma's community ties are also strong in the area. He serves on the Board of Directors for United Way of the Coastal Empire and on the organization's Executive Committee as chair of the Community Investments Committee. David Sikora, Ph.D. Assistant professor of management David Sikora’s research interests include strategic human resource management and the business impact of employee management practices. He has published his research in such journals as the Journal of Applied Psychology, Leadership Quarterly, Human Resources Management Review, International Journal of Selection and Assessment, and International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management. Prior to his academic career, David had extensive corporate experience in human resources and marketing including serving as human resources vice president at Cigna Corporation and director of human resources product management at Gevity HR, Incorporated. Steven Charlier, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Management Charlier’s research interests are focused on the modern work environment, and include virtual teams, e-learning, leadership in a virtual world, and management education. His work has been published in several leading international academic journals, including The Leadership Quarterly, Human Resource Management, Journal of Organizational Behavior, Academy of Management Learning & Education, and Human Resource Management Review. Online teaching and learning: Charles Hodges, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development Hodges is a tenured professor of instructional technology at Georgia Southern with over 20 years of online teaching experience. As an active researcher in online teaching and learning, Hodges presents regularly at the national and international levels. He currently serves as the editor-in-chief of the journal and he is a long-time member of the Association for Educational Communications and Technologies, a professional organization for Educational Technology scholars and practitioners. Featured in the Inside Higher Ed article (published 3/11/20): Jeffrey Tysinger, Ph.D. and Dawn Tysinger, Ph.D. Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning: o https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/nyar/vol2/iss1/4/ o https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2811036.2811057 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=EJ1147626 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=ED595756 Dawn Tysinger, NCSP, serves as professor and program director for the nationally-recognized, National Association of School Psychologists-Approved Education Specialist program in school psychology at Georgia Southern University. Tysinger has contributed to her field through active participation in NASP, publications in school psychology journals, and presentations at the local, state, regional, national, and international levels. She currently serves on the NASP program review board for school psychology programs and as a member of the editorial boards of Journal of School Psychology, Psychology in the Schools, Trainers’ Forum: Journal of the Trainers of School Psychologists, National Youth-At-Risk Journal and Journal of Online Learning Research. Jeff Tysinger, NCSP, is a professor of school psychology at Georgia Southern University. He has been the president of the Kansas Association of School Psychologists (KASP), editor of the KASP Newsletter, KASP Futures committee member, KASP NCSP committee member, member of National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) since 1997, Nationally Certified School Psychologist since 1997, NASP Program Reviewer, NCSP Portfolio Reviewer, member of NCATE Board of Examiners, member of Georgia Association of School For parents at home with (k-12) children now distance learning: Chelda Smith Associate Professor, Department of Elementary and Special Education Smith’s master's thesis focused on parents as the first teachers of children and can speak to how parents can be empowered in that role. Her research agenda continues to focus on home and community assets, of which parents/caregivers are the primary influence and factor for positive outcomes. Lastly, as a parent of both a middle schooler and a toddler, Smith is navigating the process of being a primary educator in the home in real-time. Each expert is available to speak with media – simply contact Melanie Simon at 912.313.3245 to arrange an interview today.
Find out how Georgia Southern is helping America’s Second Harvest during COVID-19
Sustainability is at the forefront of the FORAM Sustainable Aquaponics Research Center (SARC) on the Georgia Southern University Armstrong Campus, even during a pandemic. SARC recently donated produce grown at the aquaponics farm on campus to America’s Second Harvest of Coastal Georgia. Donations like this, as well as other community service projects, are a large part of SARC’s mission. “SARC’s mission has always included community outreach and education, which means knowing how we can support the community when it’s in need,” SARC curator Brigette Brinton said. “Right now we’re just supplying food instead of information.” Brinton said it’s also important to make sure the food grown at the aquaponics farm isn’t wasted in order to be as sustainable as possible. “We are donating produce that would otherwise be in excess or go bad before being consumed,” she said. “We had a lot of lettuce ready to plant just after spring break that would normally have gone to the Southern Cafe, but they don’t need it, and the heat is causing it to bolt and wilt quickly. So far, we’ve donated lettuce and kale, and soon it will be lettuce and chard.” Brinton, two student workers and SARC senior scientist Heather Joesting, Ph.D., have been working at the aquaponics farm during the period of social distancing to make sure the produce growing in the greenhouse remains usable. In addition to donating produce to Second Harvest, the research center partners with the Nine Line Foundation to help show homeless veterans how to grow their own food. Also, they partner with Savannah State University to help integrate aquaponics into K-12 curriculum. “In addition to conducting fundamental research on aquaponics, we value the importance of education and outreach to the community,” SARC director Brent Feske, Ph.D., said. If you are a journalist and you are looking to cover or learn more about how Georgia Southern University is using its knowledge and resources to support those in need during COVID-19 – then let us help. SARC’s director, Brent Feske is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
Are African Americans more at risk from COVID-19 than other Americans? Let our experts explain.
It’s a startling piece of evidence, but it appears that a disproportionate number of African Americans are dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump called the impact of the coronavirus on African Americans a "real problem" that was showing up "strongly" in the data. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, added that pre-existing conditions that are more prevalent among African Americans, including asthma and diabetes, are a factor. “We’re very concerned about that,” he said. Low-income people of color are also more likely to have jobs that can't be done remotely, meaning they're more likely to be exposed to the virus while more affluent professionals are able to stay at home. And they're less likely to have access to high-quality private testing or medical care. "I'm concerned this will be yet another case where there's a huge difference between people who are more wealthy and people who are poor, and there's going to be a difference between people of color and how much they suffer," Dr. Marcus Plescia, the chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, said. “We have a longstanding legacy of bias and racism in our country and we’re not going to get beyond that quickly.” NBC News – April 07 But as health officials and experts further examine the data – there are a lot of questions to be asked? What can African Americans do to further prevent the risk of infection? Do government officials need to allocate more resources to areas with a higher population of African Americans? Are African Americans being tested or have access to tests in the same manner as the rest of America? When we African Americans informed of this unique vulnerability and was anything put in place to inform to properly inform them? If you are a journalist covering this topic – then let our experts help. Dr. Tiffany G. Townsend is a widely recognized leader in diversity and psychology. She is an expert in the areas of health equity and serves as the chief diversity officer for Augusta University. Dr. Joseph Hobbs is an award-winning physician and a notable leader in the research of racial disparities in health care. He also serves as the chairman of the Department of Family Medicine at the Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University. Dr. Joseph Hobbs is an award-winning physician and a notable leader in the research of racial disparities in health care. He also serves as the chairman of the Department of Family Medicine at the Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University. Townsend and Hobbs are both available to speak with media regarding this topic– simply call 706-522-3023 to arrange an interview or simply click on Dr. Townsend's icon to book a time.
How Should Remote Workers Cope with Isolation?
With unprecedented numbers of workers quarantined and working from home, a chief complaint being voiced by many is how to deal with its isolating effects. What can be done to minimize the feelings of isolation and to maintain work relationships during this crisis? Timothy Golden, a professor in the Lally School of Management at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, is a leading expert on remote work, telework, telecommuting, and virtual teams. With dozens of published research articles during more than 20 years of research in this field, his most recent article on telecommuting was just published in the "Journal of Vocational Behavior." “People working from home should be proactive if they want to avoid feeling isolated, so that they not only feel better but also maintain their work productivity. We know from research and experience that there are important activities that can be done to help solve remote work’s potential for isolation.” Golden is available to discuss what steps workers can take to help avoid remote work’s isolating effects.
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
