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As the world watches Russia invade Ukraine – what’s next?
For a week the world has watched as Russian forces have pounded Ukraine from the sky and a full-on ground invasion is now underway. Support in the form of sanctions, speeches and supplies has poured in from NATO and non-NATO allies from across the globe. Ukraine’s army is out-manned and out-gunned, but their resistance has so far defied expectations. But how will this outright show of unprovoked forces that has shocked the world impact global relations moving forward? If you are covering the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, then let our experts help with your questions and coverage. University of Mary Washington Political Science and International Affairs Professor Jason Davidson is an expert in American foreign and security policy, and international security. To arrange an interview with Dr. Davidson, simply click on his icon.

It’s official — President Biden has selected Ketanji Brown Jackson as his nominee to the Supreme Court. If confirmed, she will the first Black woman to sit on the highest court in the nation. This is a momentous occasion for American history and reporters are clamoring to learn more. Our experts are ready with answers to help with your stories. Dr. Martha Ginn, professor of political science at Augusta University, is an expert on the judicial process, constitutional law and the U.S. Supreme Court. She discussed Jackson's credentials and the significance of her nomination. What is Ketanji Brown Jackson’s background and what credentials would bring to the Supreme Court? Why is she President Biden's top choice? President Biden made a campaign promise to nominate a Black woman to the SCOTUS if he had a vacancy to fill. While he had several strong contenders, Judge Brown Jackson is an obvious choice for many reasons. Like all current Justices, excluding Justice Barrett, Judge Brown Jackson has an Ivy League education. She has also clerked at the Supreme Court for Justice Breyer (whom she would replace). Interestingly, Justice Kavanaugh clerked for the Justice he replaced (Justice Kennedy) as well. Background and experience: Judge Brown Jackson was a federal district court judge for eight years (appointed by President Obama) and was just confirmed to the DC Court of Appeals last summer. The DC circuit court is seen as a training ground of sorts for Supreme Court Justices, as many nominees serve there first. What makes Judge Brown Jackson different is her experience as a public defender and then vice chairman of the sentencing commission. Bringing that experience to the Court will provide a much needed perspective on the rights of the accused. The Court recently heard a case regarding implementing the First Steps Act retroactively and it was apparent in the oral argument that some Justices did not appreciate the realities and complexities of sentencing in our criminal justice system. Judge Brown Jackson’s background will help fill that void. What does her appointment signify, seeing as she would be the first Black woman (but only third Black justice) in the history of the Supreme Court, as well as the first former public defender? Having four women on the Court at the same time will be important. More women than men attend law school now but the higher ranks of the profession are still male dominated, so having near parity in the nation’s highest Court is meaningful. Her race is also significant, since she will be only the third Black member of the Court and this would be the first time we have two Black members serving together. It’s likely she and Justice Thomas will be very different ideologically but regardless, demographic representation matters. More than ever the Supreme Court is deciding very controversial matters that impact everyone. Having a Court that represents all voices is significant in maintaining its legitimacy and making sure opposing viewpoints are considered in decision-making. With everything going on currently the nation and world, when do you project a vote will happen, and do you see it going through? Even with all that is going on in the world right now, this will be a top priority to the Democratic Party, particularly with President Biden’s low polling numbers and the upcoming midterm elections. With the slimmest of voting margins possible, the sooner the vote occurs, the better for the Democrats. The Republicans set the precedent with the Barrett nomination that the process can be done in weeks rather than the months taken in previous nominations. I anticipate the Democrats will follow that expedited model. It will be interesting to see if the three Republican senators who voted for her Court of Appeals appointment less than a year ago will oppose her nomination here. Justice Breyer conditioned his retirement on the successful appointment of his replacement. He intends to retire at the end of this year’s term (likely early July), so I would anticipate her confirmation vote by then at the latest. If you are a journalist covering this story, that’s where our experts on this topic can help. Dr. Martha Ginn, professor of political science at Augusta University, is an expert on the judicial process, constitutional law and the U.S. Supreme Court. Ginn is available to speak with media about this topic — simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.

Despite months of tension, weeks of pleas and diplomatic efforts – a full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has occurred. The situation is developing by the minute and media are scrambling to explain what has happened, why it happened, and tell stories of how this invasion is impacting people not just in Ukraine, but in America too. It’s why experts like Florida Atlantic University’s Robert Rabil is front and center to explain what’s going on to reporters. According to Robert Rabil, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, the crisis between Russia and Ukraine has been building since the 1990s. "This is on the account of two factors. The first factor is the expansion of NATO to the border of Russia, merely, especially to the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia," Rabil said. "The second factor is from a Russian perspective they believe that they treated Russia like a bygone power." Rabil said with increased sanctions underway and formal diplomatic channels not working, the west could be pushing Russia to deepen its ties to other regimes globally. "It might go to Iran and it will support Iran in acquiring or hastening the acquisition of nuclear weapons," he added. "It will deepen its embrace with China." February 23 – WPTV NewsChannel 5 The invasion of Ukraine is historic and could lead to escalations of violence in other parts of Europe and further. And, if you are a reporter looking to cover this ongoing story – then let our experts help. Robert Rabil, Ph.D., is an expert in political Islam, terrorism, U.S. foreign policy, and U.S.-Arab relations. He is available to speak with media about the current situation in Ukraine, simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Kelley professor’s M-Score model remains most viable means of predicting corporate fraud
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Enhanced oversight over the auditing profession and firms’ financial reporting has led to a proliferation of models to predict financial statement fraud. But one of the first forensic models, the M-Score, devised by an Indiana University Kelley School of Business professor in the late 90s, remains accurate and is the most economically viable for investors to use, according to a forthcoming paper in The Accounting Review — the official journal of the American Accounting Association. The article, “The Costs of Fraud Prediction Errors,” co-authored by M. Daniel Beneish, professor of accounting and the Alva L. Prickett Chair at Kelley, compares seven fraud prediction models with a cost-based measure that nets the benefits of correctly anticipating instances of fraud against the costs borne by incorrectly identifying non-fraud firms as fraudulent. Even though newer fraud models early doubled the success rate of M-Score, which Beneish developed, they did so at the cost of a much larger number of false positives. As a result, the other models are not used in practice by auditors because they are too costly to implement as all flagged firms must be carefully investigated. “I have long known from my experience consulting with Arthur Andersen — for whom my model detected Enron before the debacle — and other public accounting firms, that litigation concerns relating to false positives — firms incorrectly flagged as having fraudulent financial statements — created an unwillingness by auditors’ general counsel to use fraud prediction models in practice,” Beneish said. “My efforts back then to improve the M-Score in the context of auditing failed because I could not increase the model’s success rate without increasing the number of false positives. It seems that the new models cannot either,” he added. Interestingly, as early as 2017 the M-Score flagged Kangmei Pharmaceutical, a Chinese publicly traded company that was involved in financial reporting fraud between 2016 and 2018. Like the Enron scandal in the U.S., the Kangmei Pharmaceutical scandal helped trigger new regulation in China that increased regulatory penalties for financial fraud (effective March 2020) and last November became China’s first successful class-action lawsuit involving corporate fraud. Its chairman was sentenced to 12 years in prison. “The main purpose of our paper is to provide evidence on the costs and benefits of using fraud prediction models, and to show whether using these models is economically viable for auditors, investors and regulators,” Beneish said. “This is important because the traditional measures commonly used in recent research to justify new models are misleading about model performance in fraud samples as the proportion of fraud firms in the population is very small, and as they typically assume that the cost of a false positive and false negatives (missed detections) are equal.” For example, assume that among 10,000 publicly traded firms, there are about 60 fraud firms and 9,940 firms without misreporting. The newer models detected 42 frauds (70% of the total frauds), and incorrectly flagged 3,976 firms (40% of the non-frauds). The latter is too large a number for most decision makers to investigate. “Our evidence that a cost-based assessment of models is preferable to traditional model comparison measures (e.g., area under the curve), should become even more important as efforts by future researchers in the areas of data mining and machine learning intensify,” Beneish said. Patrick Vorst of Maastricht University, assistant professor in financial accounting and accounting & information management, co-authored the paper with Beneish.

Widening participation expert joins Aston University as visiting professor
Liz Thomas is a leading researcher in widening participation and closing the achievement gap She has a very strong international and national reputation for using her research to inform policy and practice Professor Thomas will work within the University’s College of Business and Social Sciences. A leading researcher whose work addresses patterns of under-representation in higher education has joined Aston University as a visiting professor. Liz Thomas is an expert in widening participation and closing the achievement gap. She has joined the University’s College of Business and Social Sciences to work largely with Aston Business School on inclusivity and employability. Professor Thomas has previously worked on the Teaching Excellence Framework Main Panel (Widening Participation Expert), been Chair of Advisory Group, Evaluation of pre-16 outreach work, Office for Fair Access (now Office for Students) as well as an International member of the Vice Chancellor’s Quality Review, University of South Wales, Australia. During the next Research Excellence Framework (REF) period her research will focus on higher education student and graduate experiences in the ‘new new normal’. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an emergency pivot by higher education providers worldwide, from predominantly present-in-person teaching, to primarily or exclusively remote and online learning. As the pandemic has progressed, HE providers have adapted to the new normal, providing a range of hybrid learning, engagement and support opportunities. Employers are also seeing the advantages of more flexible and hybrid ways of working, and this suggests that graduates will need demonstrate additional skills and competencies in relation to autonomy and time management, team working, digital skills and effective communication through a wider range of media. Professor Liz Thomas said: “I am very excited to have been appointed visiting professor in the College of Business and Social Sciences at Aston University. “I'm very much looking forward to working with colleagues on equity in higher education and employment. “Belonging will continue to be an important theme within my research, both conceptually and practically, and within higher education and employment, in the post-pandemic world. We need to capitalise on the advantages that have emerged, and ensure inclusion, and equitable outcomes for all.” Professor Helen E Higson, associate dean accreditations at Aston Business School, said: “I am looking forward to welcoming Liz to Aston Business School to share her knowledge on inclusivity and employability. “She will bring further leadership internally in areas which fit very well with Aston University’s values, student demographics and objectives. “She has a very strong international and national reputation for using her research-informing policy. Much current practice and policy in HE in the UK is influenced by her work.”

Podcast: Germany’s caution over Russian aggression ‘disappointing’ NATO
Russia’s threat to Ukraine has highlighted differences between east and west Germans over handling of Russia, and the country’s cautious foreign policy Aston University academic explains why German soldiers shooting at Russian counterparts would be seen as a “tremendous failure” New Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces massive challenges including how to handle Covid-19, “crumbling” infrastructure, and climate change targets. Germany without its stalwart former leader Angela Merkel faces a number of huge challenges – not least the threat of Russia invading Ukraine. While Germany wants to provide leadership within the European Union, its diplomatic stance over Russia is at odds with many other countries within NATO. Those are the views of Dr Ed Turner, a reader in politics at Aston University, who was interviewed in the latest episode of the 'Society matters' podcast series, presented by journalist Steve Dyson. The episode, subtitled 'What Germany's new government means for the UK, Europe and Russia', follows a political shift following the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel last year after 16 years in charge, after the defeat of her Christian Democratic Party. Dr Turner said the immediate priority for new Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz was “undoubtedly the crisis in Ukraine and the positioning of large numbers of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border, and the real worry that Russia will invade”. He said Germany wants the issue addressed, “but is doing so in a way that is really very cautious and is disappointing to many of Germany’s allies”. Dr Turner, who is also co-director of the Aston Centre for Europe, said Germany’s “very different approach” was reflective of its history with Russia. He explained: “There is a strong sense that Germany owes a significant debt, has a particular responsibility towards Russia for the losses incurred in World War One and, particularly, in World War Two. “The perception is that German troops once again firing at Russian soldiers would be a tremendous failure. Germany also places a strong emphasis on diplomacy as a way of engaging in foreign relations rather than hard military interventions.” There were also “economic angles”, he added, with Germany needing Russian energy at a time when it was committed to phasing out coal and nuclear power. Dr Turner, whose fascination with Germany began when he cycled through the country as a teenager, said a “carrot and stick” balance was dividing the country, with 68 per cent of west Germans but only 34 per cent of east Germans last year supporting EU sanctions against Russia. This reflected “really big disparities” more than 30 years after German reunification, with 60 per cent of east Germans feeling they are treated as second class citizens. Dr Turner said post-Merkel Germany faced big challenges including handling Covid-19, large parts of German infrastructure “really crumbling” with a big backlog of investment needed, and a pledge to move faster towards net zero emissions. But he added that UK-German relations in the wake of Brexit were not on the list of big things. “Good relations between the UK and Germany will depend on the nature of the UK’s relations with the European Union,” he said. “If the UK is at loggerheads with the European Union, in particular if there was a worsening of the situation in relation to the Northern Ireland protocol, then relations with Germany would get worse.” But Dr Turner said there was “huge affection” for the UK in Germany. “Germans are willing to disentangle the UK from Brexit and to say ‘we want to move on and don’t think badly of you’. I really want to see bridge-building between the two countries over the coming years.” Dr Turner said Germany remained “nervous” of the advance of the far right, especially if numbers of refugees coming to Germany were to grow. He said Angela Merkel would be remembered for Germany’s “humane response” to the 2015 refugee crisis, but others were “much more critical” over her policy. This, he added, led to German society becoming divided and the far right gaining ground. But Dr Turner acknowledged Mrs Merkel as a “remarkable leader who really broke the mould” as the first woman Chancellor and first from the east. In contrast, her successor is seen as a “steady hand on the tiller” as he heads a “traffic light coalition” of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals. Episode 6 in series 2 of the ‘Society matters’ podcast and all previous episodes can be found HERE.

The Nesta study looked at innovation as applied to industrial policy and focussed on migrant micro-enterprises in Birmingham Experts found while there is some face-to-face business support in Birmingham, the majority of it is provided online and in English The Community Organising for Inclusive Industrial Policy study was conducted by Citizens UK Birmingham and the Centre for Research in Ethnic Minority Entrepreneurship (CREME) at Aston Business School. A new report by Aston University and Citizens UK Birmingham has found the UK Government must do more to include micro-enterprises with business support. The Community Organising for Inclusive Industrial Policy study, which was conducted by Citizens UK Birmingham and the Centre for Research in Ethnic Minority Entrepreneurship (CREME) at Aston Business School for Nesta, concluded micro-enterprises in principle can take advantage of business support that is available in Birmingham, but in practice there are several limitations. Experts found while there is some face-to-face business support in Birmingham, the majority of it is provided online with most of the various government and other websites which provide extensive business support information largely in English, and not directly accessible to those who have inadequate English language skills or lack a good level of digital skills. In Birmingham, the business leaders group successfully bid for a local authority contract to create public health videos in community languages, featuring community members in familiar locations as a way of making the content more relatable to the target audience. Professor Monder Ram, director of Centre for Research in Ethnic Minority Entrepreneurship (CREME) at Aston Business School, said: “It is wonderful to see CREME and Citizen UK’s highly impactful initiative on migrant business support receive this recognition from NESTA as an exemplar of ‘grassroots’ social innovation. “Our collaboration demonstrates the value of communities working together to support businesses and tackle common challenges.” You can read the full report HERE.

Aston University linguist awarded prestigious research fellowship
Dr Emmanuelle Labeau is one of three academics to have been appointed Research Fellows by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) for the Future of Language Research They will carry out a horizon-scanning exercise which will inform the future of AHRC investment in language research The research team will also engage with language stakeholders from across the UK to inform their work. An Aston University linguist has been appointed to a key language leadership role by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC). Dr Emmanuelle Labeau, reader in French language and linguistics and director of the Aston Centre for Applied Linguistics (ACAL) at Aston University, has taken up the new post informing the future direction of research funding for languages. Dr Labeau will work to identify existing, new and emerging research themes in language research, as well as relevant policy areas that future language research could address, taking into account the needs and expectations of both academic and non-academic communities, wider stakeholders and government departments. She will work with Professor Nicola McLelland, University of Nottingham and Professor Michelle McLeod, University of Aberdeen, wias part of a research team which brings together a wealth of experience in language research. They will engage with language stakeholders from across the UK to inform their work and help the AHRC decide which areas of language research to support, as well as identifying potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities. In addition, Emmanuelle will be carrying out a survey of the presence of languages in Birmingham. Her project, Birmingham Research for Upholding Multilingualism (BRUM), will focus on languages in education, business, public services and cultures. Dr Labeau said: “I am thrilled to be trusted with such a strategic task for the future of my discipline, while serving the region. I will be bringing to the team my experience of contemporary and relevant language research and teaching that widen participation and serve the needs of the community. I have started contacting stakeholders in Birmingham and I am keen to hear from all of Aston University’s beneficiaries.”

Podcast: Academics behind new course say ‘team leaders are the future’
Inspirational Team Coaching course aims to develop leaders for the 21st century New course needed because occasional team-building activities and ‘away days’ are not enough for the needs of today Inspirational Team Coaching will be split into three modules with launch due this autumn. Top business academics at Aston University are devising a new team coaching course with the aim of ‘upskilling’ the entrepreneurs of tomorrow. The Inspirational Team Coaching course, to be launched this autumn, will lead to a Postgraduate Certificate from the Centre for Innovation in Enterprise Education at Aston Business School. It has been developed by senior lecturer Dr Uwe Napiersky and senior teaching fellow Dr Elinor Vettraino, who discussed their plans in the latest episode in the ‘Aston means business' podcast series, presented by journalist Steve Dyson. Dr Napiersky, who spent more than 20 years in international consultancy, explained that his motto for team coaching was “team excellence doesn’t come by itself”. He said: “Focused team coaching makes the difference between muddling through or performing as one – the team as a whole is the key, not the different egos. We all know the old ‘sum of the parts’ sentence which is more important than ever.” Dr Napiersky said the new course helped their learners in areas such as collective team objectives and processes, and improved team dynamics. He said coaching was a “billion-dollar” industry and team coaching was one of the “newest kids in town. He added: “One of my slogans is ‘innovation is a team effort’. Many leaders still believe in this model of the 20th century, but it’s more about the 21st century, leadership more in a team direction.” His colleague Dr Vettraino, who incorporates team coaching into her consultancy work, said: “Organisations make an assumption that people know how to work together in teams and actually that’s often not the case.” She said that while employers tend to have team building activities, “they don’t address the day-to-day challenges and benefits of working in teams the way a coaching process can.” Dr Vettraino explained that team coaching can lead to increased motivation for staff, enabling innovation and creativity to grow, along with collaboration – which she said was “a key to surviving in industry nowadays”. She added: “Being supported by a team coach adds tremendous benefit to an organisation.” The course, to be delivered by experienced coaches and team leaders, is divided into three modules, with the first on ‘foundational knowledge and essentials’. Dr Napiersky said: “We go into team learning, we go into the area of innovating teams, and we will definitely look into real world team challenges our students will have.” The second module is focused on ‘Tasks and Mindset’. Dr Vettraino said its purpose was to take some of the foundational knowledge and put it into practice, by “looking at developing participants’ innovation, creativity, problem-solving and risk-taking capacity and mindset”. She added: “It’s going to enable the participants to really dig into the playfulness and creativity of their own coaching practice that will enable them to find new and different ways of working with teams.” The third and final module looks at developing ‘Professional Practice’. “It’s really in the third unit that participants start their own swimming and with their own swimming style,” explained Dr Napiersky. The understanding goes from unprepared to clear for themselves, from singular to systemic, from messy to focused or muddling through to structured.” Dr Vettraino chipped in: “There’s a lot of opportunity here to develop really rich projects in relation to their coaching practice. What we want them to do is hone their skills and capacity for inspirational team coaching with real clients they are working with so they can develop a very rich understanding of putting the first year module’s learning into practice.” To prepare students for the real world, Dr Napiersky said: “There’s a lot for internal coaches to do – getting teams clearer, getting them working, and helping them to build up more capacity, and applying the skills they will learn on this course.” Dr Vettraino said: “This skill base will enable people who are currently practising, perhaps as consultant coaches of their own practice, to develop something that adds to their toolkit. They can take it into their own practice and potentially even coaching other organisations.” To find out more about the programme email e.vettraino@aston.ac.uk or u.napiersky@aston.ac.uk. ▪ Episode 5 in series 4 of ‘Aston means business’ podcast can be found HERE.

Aston University announced as an Official University for the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games
Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games will be held between 28 July and 8 August Aston University will provide ophthalmic expertise to the polyclinics The University is proud to support the mission of Birmingham 2022 to be the first Games to create a carbon neutral legacy Students have been set a challenge to develop ideas for creating a sustainable Games. Aston University has been unveiled as an Official University to the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games, which will take place between 28 July and 8 August this year. The University’s School of Optometry will be loaning ophthalmic equipment and providing eye care expertise, supported by a network of qualified optometrist volunteers, for three polyclinics which will form the primary healthcare facilities for athletes and team officials requiring medical assessment and treatment throughout the Games period. Professor Leon Davies, professor of optometry and physiological optics at Aston University, said: “It is our aim to advance eye health in our region and society through innovative and clinically relevant education, research, and community engagement. I am looking forward to overseeing the Games’ eye care clinics throughout Birmingham 2022. “In addition to providing ophthalmic equipment during the Games, we have also brought together a cohort of volunteer optometrists, dispensing opticians and ophthalmologists from across the UK.” Dr Pam Venning, head of medical services at Birmingham 2022, said: “We are delighted to have Aston University on board as an Official University. Its School of Optometry is well-known for its innovation and world-leading education. “Birmingham 2022 wouldn’t be possible without teams of volunteers, and we are looking forward to working with the optometrists, opticians and ophthalmologists assembled by the University to support the athletes and officials attending the Games.” The University will also be supporting Birmingham 2022 in its aim to be the first Games to create a carbon neutral legacy by providing parking and hosting temporary electric vehicle charging facilities for its fleet, as well as other spaces on campus for its organising team. The director of Aston University’s Energy and Bioproducts Research Institute, Professor Patricia Thornley, said: “It is important that such a flagship event in Birmingham embodies the very best in sustainable practices, and we are working hard to support that.” Nicola Turner MBE, director of legacy and Jess Fidler, head of sustainability for Birmingham 2022 spoke to students in a special event in November setting out the work being done to create a legacy for the region, including the ambition to create a carbon neutral legacy. Birmingham 2022 has also provided this year’s business challenge for postgraduate business and management students at Aston Business School, who have been tasked with developing ideas for how the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games can create a lasting sustainability legacy for the city. The best ideas from the challenge will be reviewed by the Birmingham 2022 team and the West Midlands Combined Authority, who are taking the lead on a sustainability legacy. Saskia Loer Hansen, Interim Vice-Chancellor of Aston University, said: “At Aston University, we take an holistic approach that embeds sustainability through all our external activities at local, national and international level. “We are proud to support the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games in its aim to be the first Games to create a carbon neutral legacy.” Commonwealth Games Federation CEO, Katie Sadleir, said: “We are delighted to welcome Aston University as an Official University to the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games. “The University will provide vital ophthalmic expertise and equipment for athletes and team officials requiring ophthalmic assessment and treatment throughout the Games. “This is a critical service and with Aston University, we have a fantastic partner to deliver this.”





