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Are China and America set to face off in a warmed-up version of the cold war?
Tensions and temperatures are rising between the United Stated and China. The straws on the camel’s back have been adding up in recent years, and the recent rhetoric about the origins of COVID-19 and the reaction to China’s further pursuit of the ‘One-China’ policy may be seeing both countries crossing the political Rubicon and headed toward a stand-off. The first shot fired may be China sending two air raft carriers to the Yellow Sea. This will be the first time China's new aircraft carriers deploy together for the first time and the move has sparked fears in Taiwan of a possible invasion of its Pratas islands - which could then be used as a staging point for an attack on the mainland. It comes after Beijing threatened to "reunify" Taiwan in response to Donald Trump saying he could "cut off the whole relationship" with China. Tensions have been growing between the US and China over the origins of Covid-19. The US said on Friday it is set to ban trade with 33 Chinese companies. But China's foreign minister Wang Yi said yesterday this would risk "a new Cold War" as he rejected Washington's "lies" over its handling of coronavirus while saying Beijing was open to an international effort to find its source. Wang said the United States had been infected by a "political virus" compelling figures there to continually attack China. He said: “It has come to our attention that some political forces in the US are taking China-US relations hostage and pushing our two countries to the brink of a new Cold War." May 25 – The Sun It is a concerning development given the current state of global affairs. And there are a lot of questions to be asked: What will it take to de-escalate the issue? What would a 21st Century cold war look like? And at what cost will this come to both countries who are dealing with serious economic pressures at home? If you are a journalist covering this topic – then let our experts help. Dr. Glen Duerr's research interests include comparative politics and international relations theory. Glen is an expert on this subject and is available to speak to media regarding this topic– simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Is AI taking over traditional procurement practices?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is everywhere. It’s taking questions from clients, running assembly lines and is now pretty much part of every appliance in every house and is also an integral part of industry. In fact, in the attached article, Joe McNamara, global director of IT for food giant Kraft-Heinz details how he has implemented AI as a vital source for manufacturing and procurement across his company. Recently, Ruomeng Cui an Assistant Professor in the Department of Information System and Operations Management at the Goizueta Business School, Emory University along with colleagues from Rutgers University and Tianjin University, authored a paper regarding how Artificial Intelligence will be playing an expanded role in areas like procurement and how it will increase accuracy and efficiency for businesses on a global scale. If you’re looking to learn more about this topic – then let us help with your questions or coverage. Ruomeng Cui investigates how operations strategies create value in digital retail and platform markets. Professor Cui is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview.
Diary of a COVID-19 crisis nurse in NYC: A Georgia Southern student’s first job
On May 1, Tucker Westbrook could finally sleep in. He’d been on duty as a COVID-19 crisis nurse at Harlem Hospital Center in New York City for 11 consecutive days, with a routine that began before the sun came up and ended long after the city had gone dark. Most mornings, he’d wake at 5:45 am., center himself with prayer and meditation, eat breakfast, and hop on a bus in time to clock in for his shift at the largest public hospital in Central Harlem by 7 a.m. Each day as he entered the halls of the facility’s surgical floor, which was transformed into a COVID-19 holding unit for the larger part of his three-week work rotation, he was unsure of what he’d encounter. Just weeks earlier, Westbrook, a May 2019 Georgia Southern University nursing graduate from Butler, Georgia, accepted a short-term contract to assist with the Coronavirus pandemic in the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak. This was Westbrook’s first professional job, following what was supposed to be a yearlong mission trip in Southeast Asia, but was cut short due to the pandemic, and nothing could fully prepare him for the impact of his initial experience. “The first day, I thought, ‘I’m not prepared for this,’” he admitted. “Those first few days I was on pins and needles and thought, ‘how am I going to mess up?’” The stakes were high. By the time he arrived in New York City, thousands had already been hospitalized, and many had died. Seasoned nurses and doctors were depleted and morale was low across the city, he explained on the phone as he looked out over a desolate Times Square from his hotel window. “They asked me, ‘why did you come here?’” Westbrook recalled. “And I said that I wanted to be, hopefully, a light in this dark place right now. The patients, the doctors, the nurses, the nursing assistants, the janitorial assistants — my goal is to learn everyone’s names and greet them with a smile behind my mask.” A friend encouraged Westbrook to look for a temporary nursing job upon his return from abroad. When he applied for highly competitive positions with a crisis staffing agency, he requested placement in an area hard hit by the pandemic. “Just like Southeast Asia, I wanted to go where there was the biggest need, and I had enough gifts to meet that need,” Westbrook said. This was Westbrook’s first trip to New York, and he stepped into a scene where images of makeshift morgues and ventilator shortages splashed across the media came to life in front of him. “It has been surreal to see,” he said. Assigned to provide cluster care to potential COVID-19-positive patients for minimal exposure, Westbrook also focused on simple acts of kindness to help ease increased anxiety among the patients. “That might be things as small as giving a wet rag to wipe their face,” Westbrook said. “It may be filling their jars with ice cold water in the morning. Whatever might help them feel more comfortable.” Westbrook’s patients were diverse: a teenage gunshot victim who sobbed at the prospect of being infected with the virus; an adult male who discussed intimate thoughts about death with his family over the phone; and a woman who was depressed until Westbrook sat with her so she didn’t feel alone. Experiencing humanity in its most delicate form was life-defining. “I was learning more about nursing care but also continuing to serve (my patients) beyond simply giving them medicine,” Westbrook said. “I was able to advocate for them with the doctor, especially without their families there. I’m learning how to go above and beyond, and what our job responsibilities are. I want to keep growing and learning to continue to give care to my patients.” The hospital staff also offered enormous support and guidance to Westbrook, who almost two weeks into the job felt exponentially more confident in his abilities. “If you had told me about any of this I wouldn’t believe it,” he said. “It has been incredible. I did not think I could do that at all, and here I am on the other side. This was such a lofty and high goal to complete this and do well. I’m thankful to even be here and have this opportunity.” Westbrook credits his father for encouraging him to study nursing, and Georgia Southern faculty for their expert instruction, which he put to use in New York, as well as their sage advice. “I wasn’t sure I was going to get my license,” he said. “My desire to become a doctor or a missionary became more and more compelling, but my professors assured me that it would be worthwhile to pursue my license, and they were right.” Following a quarantine in his family’s home, Westbrook will begin pre-medicine classes at Georgia Southern this summer. If you are a journalist looking to know more about Tucker’s story or the nursing program at Georgia Southern University – let us help with your coverage. Barry Joyner is the dean of Georgia Southern University’s Waters College of Health Professions - simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
Covering Remdesivir – Contact an expert from Cedarville first
There has been a lot of talk about treatment, vaccinations and drugs that are being used during the CVOID-19 pandemic. The latest is Remdesivir – and it is getting a lot of attention. The US's Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorised emergency use of the Ebola drug remdesivir for treating the coronavirus. The authorisation means the anti-viral drug can now be used on people who are hospitalised with severe Covid-19. A recent clinical trial showed the drug helped shorten the recovery time for people who were seriously ill. However, it did not significantly improve survival rates. Experts have warned the drug - which was originally developed to treat Ebola, and is produced by Gilead pharmaceutical company in California - should not be seen as a "magic bullet" for coronavirus. What do we know about remdesivir? The drug did not cure Ebola, and Gilead says on its website: "Remdesivir is an experimental medicine that does not have established safety or efficacy for the treatment of any condition." Gilead also warns of possible serious side-effects. However, President Trump has been a vocal supporter of remdesivir as a potential treatment for the coronavirus. In its clinical trial, whose full results are yet to be released, the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) found that remdesivir cut the duration of symptoms from 15 days down to 11. The trials involved 1,063 people at hospitals around the world - including the US, France, Italy, the UK, China and South Korea. Some patients were given the drug and others were given a placebo (dummy) treatment. Dr Anthony Fauci who runs NIAID, said that remdesivir had "a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery". However, although remdesivir may aid recovery - and possibly stop people having to be treated in intensive care - the trials did not give any clear indication whether it can prevent deaths from coronavirus. May 02 - BBC There are still a lot of questions to be asked: When could it be ready for mass distribution? How is it administered? Who can get it? And how much will it cost? If you are a journalist covering this emerging issue – then let our experts help. Dr. Zach Jenkins is an infectious disease expert at Cedarville University. He is available to speak with media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Step aside Walking Dead – There’s another leading TV show being shot in Georgia now
When location scouts for NBC’s new television series “Council of Dads” combed Savannah for a realistic venue to shoot multiple hospital scenes, they knew they had found something special in the Health Professions Academic Building on Georgia Southern University’s Armstrong Campus. “I set up a visit, came and looked at it and I was floored,” said “Council of Dads” location scout and Armstrong Campus alumnus Anthony Paderewski. “I couldn’t believe it. Basically, you have a backlot for a TV show here. It was absolutely perfect for what we were looking for. So that being said, I went and I talked to the producers and I got some pictures. When I showed the pictures everyone was blown away.” “Council of Dads,” which premiered March 24 and now airs on Thursdays, is based on the book by Savannah native Bruce Feiler, and developed by former “Grey’s Anatomy” showrunners Tony Phelan and Joan Rater, who also serve as executive producers on the series. The story follows Scott Perry, a father of five who, after receiving a cancer diagnosis, asks a group of friends to step in as father figures to his children in the event that he isn’t around to see them grow up. “It’s an emotional family drama,” explained “Council of Dads” co-executive producer and producing director Jonathan Brown. “The idea is to try and be as real as possible. And the show is telling the story of a family and what it means to be a family in this day and age. It’s not just blood. The definition of family is growing, broadening with the types of relationships that are now included in a family. This is the story of one of those families that is made up of blood relationships, friendships, adoption and all those different kinds of things.” The show filmed almost entirely on location in the Savannah area for five months. Several of the scenes take place in a hospital, and the set has to be believable, multifaceted and offer the right aesthetic for television. Primarily, the true-to-life setting allows the University to provide exceptional education and training opportunities to help students succeed while addressing the healthcare needs of the region. The Waters College of Health Professions, housed in the Academic Building and Ashmore Hall, is the largest undergraduate health sciences college in the state of Georgia, and the University’s allied healthcare programs represent almost one-fifth of all undergraduate healthcare degrees earned in Georgia. “The use of the Health Professions Academic Building is validation that we are training our students for real-world health care settings,” said Barry Joyner Ph.D., dean of the Waters College of Health Professions. “The goal for the building was to simulate a hospital setting, and we have accomplished that.” Are you a journalist looking to cover this topic or learn how Georgia and Universities like Georgia Southern are working with film and television industries – the let us help with your stories. Barry Joyner is the dean of the Waters College of Health Professions at Georgia Southern University and is available to talk about this latest project on campus – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
Does gender matter when it comes to COVID-19?
As America begins to adapt and adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic, details are emerging about who is more susceptible to the virus and why. The latest is gender. In fact, as some are observing, it seems men are more likely to fall victim to COVID-19 than women. A report published by the New England Journal of Medicine showed men not only made up 60% of the first 393 COVID-19 patients admitted in two New York City hospitals, but they were the highest group placed on ventilators. Another study of people hospitalized in the United States for COVID-19 in March similarly found that “males may be disproportionately affected by COVID-19 compared with females.” “The higher risk of COVID-19 among men we are seeing in New York City may be consistent in other US regions, including the southwestern Georgia area that has been disproportionately affected by COVID-19,” says Dr. Justin Moore, an assistant professor in the Department of Population Health Sciences in the Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University. “Researchers are still looking into why men, specifically African American men, are seemingly more susceptible to the virus. However, we know this may be due to underlying health issues, including hypertension, obesity and diabetes.” It’s a startling detail and one that needs to be communicated. If you are a journalist covering COVID-19 and how men may be more vulnerable than women during this crisis – then let our experts help. Dr. Justin Moore is an expert in spatial epidemiology and an associate professor at the Institute of Public and Preventive Health at Augusta University. He is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
As the global pandemic touches almost all parts of the United States – it is essential that the public receives only accurate and definitive information from credible and expert sources as news, media and information reaches million of people across the country. An invisible enemy is killing thousands and forcing people worldwide to cower behind closed doors. Unfounded conspiracy theories and miracle “cures” abound on social media. Politicians and pundits send mixed messages about how to protect yourself. Who you gonna call? - Bedford Gazette, April 14 As the coronavirus rampages, the public increasingly is turning to experts in academia and government -- the educated, experienced “elites” that many Americans had tuned out. The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) situation is certainly new to all of us. As guidance from the CDC changes and instructional methods transition, there are experts at Georgia Southern who can help to answer questions such as: How should we best address this pandemic as a nation? How should we best address this pandemic individually? What does it mean to “flatten the curve?" What is the economic impact of COVID-19? How do you best manage employees virtually? Why are grocery stores having trouble keeping inventory on their shelves? Should we prepare for a lapse in groceries and goods? What contributes to the fear and panic in disasters and pandemics? What do educators, parents and students need to know to prepare for online learning in the K-12 and college settings? If you are a reporter covering COVID-19, let the team of experts from Georgia Southern help with your coverage. Public Health: Atin Adhikari, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Adhikari brings over 15 years of extensive research experience on aerosols, airborne microorganisms, other air pollutants, and related respiratory disorders. His current research areas include environmental air quality, exposure assessment, occupational health and safety, environmental microbiology, and respiratory health. Before joining JPHCOPH, Dr. Adhikari was also involved (Co-I) with two DoD-DTRA and U.S. Office of Naval Research funded projects on inactivation of hazardous microorganisms. Chun Hai (Isaac) Fung, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung is a digital health expert and an infectious disease epidemiologist. He analyses social media data for public health surveillance and health communication and uses digital technologies for public health interventions. He investigates the transmission of communicable diseases with a focus on respiratory infections and environmentally transmitted infections. He applied a variety of methods, from classical statistical methods to machine learning and mathematical modeling, to address public health problems and to provide solutions to policy-makers. He is especially interested in assisting public health agencies in their responses to public health emergencies. He is currently a guest researcher with the Health Economics and Modeling Unit, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Examples of his recent projects include: Surveillance of unplanned school closures through social media platforms, Analysis of social media posts pertinent to public health emergencies, such as Ebola, MERS and Zika. Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Pandemics, panic and the public: Amy Ballagh, Ed.D. Associate Vice President of Enrollment Management Featured in the Washington Post : Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Jodi Caldwell, Ph.D. Executive Director of the Georgia Southern University Counseling Center On a national level, Dr. Caldwell is currently serving her second elected term to the Directorate Board of the Commission for Counseling and Psychological Services of the American College Personnel Association and is a certified Red Cross Disaster Mental Health Responder. COVID-19 and logistics, the economy and the workforce: Alan Mackelprang, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Currently the director of the Ph.D. in Logistics and Supply Chain Management program, his research interests include examining interdependencies among supply chain partners, JIT/Lean production, manufacturing flexibility as well as supply chain integration. Scott Ellis, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Scott Ellis’ research interests center on the study of purchasing and supply management processes and functions. He has published in Journal of Operations Management and Journal of Supply Chain Management, among others. Richard McGrath, Ph.D. Professor, Parker College of Business Richard McGrath researches immigration, consumer survey methodology, and applied microeconomics. He is a long time expert on the economy in Savannah and the Coastal Empire. Michael Toma, Ph.D. Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Economics Michael Toma is a professor and lead analyst for the Center for Business Analytics and Economic Research, a student- and faculty-staffed applied research group focused on the Savannah-area economy that works with many local partners on special initiatives, customized applied business research and impact studies. Based on Toma's analytics, the Center publishes the quarterly Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, a closely watched economic report. Toma's community ties are also strong in the area. He serves on the Board of Directors for United Way of the Coastal Empire and on the organization's Executive Committee as chair of the Community Investments Committee. David Sikora, Ph.D. Assistant professor of management David Sikora’s research interests include strategic human resource management and the business impact of employee management practices. He has published his research in such journals as the Journal of Applied Psychology, Leadership Quarterly, Human Resources Management Review, International Journal of Selection and Assessment, and International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management. Prior to his academic career, David had extensive corporate experience in human resources and marketing including serving as human resources vice president at Cigna Corporation and director of human resources product management at Gevity HR, Incorporated. Steven Charlier, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Management Charlier’s research interests are focused on the modern work environment, and include virtual teams, e-learning, leadership in a virtual world, and management education. His work has been published in several leading international academic journals, including The Leadership Quarterly, Human Resource Management, Journal of Organizational Behavior, Academy of Management Learning & Education, and Human Resource Management Review. Online teaching and learning: Charles Hodges, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development Hodges is a tenured professor of instructional technology at Georgia Southern with over 20 years of online teaching experience. As an active researcher in online teaching and learning, Hodges presents regularly at the national and international levels. He currently serves as the editor-in-chief of the journal and he is a long-time member of the Association for Educational Communications and Technologies, a professional organization for Educational Technology scholars and practitioners. Featured in the Inside Higher Ed article (published 3/11/20): Jeffrey Tysinger, Ph.D. and Dawn Tysinger, Ph.D. Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning: o https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/nyar/vol2/iss1/4/ o https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2811036.2811057 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=EJ1147626 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=ED595756 Dawn Tysinger, NCSP, serves as professor and program director for the nationally-recognized, National Association of School Psychologists-Approved Education Specialist program in school psychology at Georgia Southern University. Tysinger has contributed to her field through active participation in NASP, publications in school psychology journals, and presentations at the local, state, regional, national, and international levels. She currently serves on the NASP program review board for school psychology programs and as a member of the editorial boards of Journal of School Psychology, Psychology in the Schools, Trainers’ Forum: Journal of the Trainers of School Psychologists, National Youth-At-Risk Journal and Journal of Online Learning Research. Jeff Tysinger, NCSP, is a professor of school psychology at Georgia Southern University. He has been the president of the Kansas Association of School Psychologists (KASP), editor of the KASP Newsletter, KASP Futures committee member, KASP NCSP committee member, member of National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) since 1997, Nationally Certified School Psychologist since 1997, NASP Program Reviewer, NCSP Portfolio Reviewer, member of NCATE Board of Examiners, member of Georgia Association of School For parents at home with (k-12) children now distance learning: Chelda Smith Associate Professor, Department of Elementary and Special Education Smith’s master's thesis focused on parents as the first teachers of children and can speak to how parents can be empowered in that role. Her research agenda continues to focus on home and community assets, of which parents/caregivers are the primary influence and factor for positive outcomes. Lastly, as a parent of both a middle schooler and a toddler, Smith is navigating the process of being a primary educator in the home in real-time. Each expert is available to speak with media – simply contact Melanie Simon at 912.313.3245 to arrange an interview today.
Find out how Georgia Southern is helping America’s Second Harvest during COVID-19
Sustainability is at the forefront of the FORAM Sustainable Aquaponics Research Center (SARC) on the Georgia Southern University Armstrong Campus, even during a pandemic. SARC recently donated produce grown at the aquaponics farm on campus to America’s Second Harvest of Coastal Georgia. Donations like this, as well as other community service projects, are a large part of SARC’s mission. “SARC’s mission has always included community outreach and education, which means knowing how we can support the community when it’s in need,” SARC curator Brigette Brinton said. “Right now we’re just supplying food instead of information.” Brinton said it’s also important to make sure the food grown at the aquaponics farm isn’t wasted in order to be as sustainable as possible. “We are donating produce that would otherwise be in excess or go bad before being consumed,” she said. “We had a lot of lettuce ready to plant just after spring break that would normally have gone to the Southern Cafe, but they don’t need it, and the heat is causing it to bolt and wilt quickly. So far, we’ve donated lettuce and kale, and soon it will be lettuce and chard.” Brinton, two student workers and SARC senior scientist Heather Joesting, Ph.D., have been working at the aquaponics farm during the period of social distancing to make sure the produce growing in the greenhouse remains usable. In addition to donating produce to Second Harvest, the research center partners with the Nine Line Foundation to help show homeless veterans how to grow their own food. Also, they partner with Savannah State University to help integrate aquaponics into K-12 curriculum. “In addition to conducting fundamental research on aquaponics, we value the importance of education and outreach to the community,” SARC director Brent Feske, Ph.D., said. If you are a journalist and you are looking to cover or learn more about how Georgia Southern University is using its knowledge and resources to support those in need during COVID-19 – then let us help. SARC’s director, Brent Feske is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
As the world still isolates, social distances and stays at home – the concerns about the economy are always top of mind. Jobs, investments and paying bills are a daily topic at home and in the media. The initial spin that there’s nothing to worry about as whatever was lost is bound to bounce back once we’re back to normal is starting to fade. No one knows when that bounce back will start and the idea of back to normal, what it will look like and when is at best a guess for anyone. Public health experts are beginning to make predictions about when coronavirus infection rates will peak. Economists are calculating when the cost of continuing to shutter restaurants, shopping malls and other businesses — a move that has already pushed some 10 million Americans into unemployment, with millions more on the way — will outweigh the savings from further efforts to slow the virus once the infection curve has flattened out. Government officials are setting competing targets. President Trump has pushed his expected date of reopening the economy to the end of April. “We have to get back to work,” he said in a briefing on Saturday. “We have to open our country again. We don’t want to be doing this for months and months and months. We’re going to open our country again. This country wasn’t meant for this.” Some governors have set much more conservative targets, like Ralph Northam of Virginia, who canceled the remainder of the school year and imposed a shelter-at-home order through June 10. Other states, like Florida, only recently agreed to shut activity down but have set more aggressive targets — April 30, in the case of the Sunshine State — to restart it. April 06 – New York Times So when will it be back, what’s lost forever and how long to recover are the million-dollar questions. And if you are a journalist covering America’s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic – then let us help with your stories. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
