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The Impact of Counterfeit Goods in Global Commerce

Introduction Counterfeiting has been described as “the world’s second oldest profession.” In 2018, worldwide counterfeiting was estimated to cost the global economy between USD 1.7 trillion and USD 4.5 trillion annually, as well as resulting in more than 70 deaths and 350,000 serious injuries annually. It is estimated that more than a quarter of US consumers have purchased a counterfeit product. The counterfeiting problem is expected to be exacerbated by the unprecedented shift in tariff policy. Tariffs, designed as an import tax or duty on an imported product, are often a percentage of the price and can have different values for different products. Tariffs drive up the cost of imported brand name products but may not, or only to a lesser extent, impact the cost of counterfeit goods. In this article, we examine the extent of the global counterfeit dilemma, the role experts play in tracking and mitigating the problem, the use of anti-counterfeiting measures, and the potential impact that tariffs may have on the flow of counterfeit goods. Brand goods have always been a target of counterfeits due to their high price and associated prestige. These are often luxury goods and clothing, but can also be pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and electronics. The brand name is an indication of quality materials, workmanship, and technology. People will pay more for the “real thing,” or decide to buy something cheaper that looks “just as good.” In many cases, “just as good” is a counterfeit of the brand name product. A tariff is an import tax or duty that is typically paid by the importer and can drive up the cost of imported brand name products. For example, a Yale study has shown that shoe prices may increase by 87% and apparel prices by 65%, due to tariffs. On the other hand, counterfeit products don’t play by the rules and can often avoid paying tariffs, such as the case of many smaller, online transactions, shipped individually. Therefore, we expect to see an increase in counterfeit products as well as a need to increase efforts to reduce the economic losses of counterfeiting. The Scale of the Counterfeit Problem In their 2025 report, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO), estimated that in 2021, “global trade in counterfeit goods was valued at approximately USD 467 billion, or 2.3% of total global imports. This absolute value represents an increase from 2019, when counterfeit trade was estimated at USD 464 billion, although its relative share decreased compared to 2019 when it accounted for 2.5% of world trade. For imports into the European Union, the value of counterfeit goods was estimated at USD 117 billion, or 4.7% of total EU imports.” In a 2020 report, the US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) estimated the size of the international counterfeit market as having a “range from a low of USD 200 billion in 2008 to a high of USD 509 billion in 2019.” According to the OEDC / EUIPO General Trade-Related Index of Counterfeiting for economies (GTRIC-e), China continues to be the primary source of counterfeit goods, as well as Bangladesh, Lebanon, Syrian Arab Republic, and Türkiye. Based on customs seizures in 2020-21, the most common items are clothing (21.6%), footwear (21.4%), and handbags, followed by electronics and watches. Based on the value of goods seized, watches (23%) and footwear (15%) had the highest value. However, it should be noted that items that are easier to detect and seize are likely to be overrepresented in the data. Although the share of watches declined, and electronics, toys, and games increased, it remains unclear whether this represents a long term trend or just a short term fluctuation. In general, high value products in high demand continue to be counterfeited. Data from the US Library of Congress indicates that 60% – 80% of counterfeit products are purchased by Americans. The US accounts for approximately 5% of the world’s consumers; however, it represents greater than 20% of the world’s purchasing power. Though it is still possible to find counterfeit products at local markets, a large number of counterfeit goods are obtained through online retailers and shipped directly to consumers as small parcels classified as de minimis trade. This allows for the duty-free import of products up to USD 800 in value. Counterfeit items may be knowingly or unknowingly purchased from online retailers and shipped directly to consumers, duty-free. Purchased products can be shipped via postal services, classified as de minimis trade. Approximately 79% of packages seized contained less than 10 items. Given the size and volume of the packages arriving daily, many or most will evade scrutiny by customs officials. This means of import is increasing over time. In 2017-19 it was 61% of seizures. By 2020-21, it was 79%. Economic Impact of Counterfeiting The scale of the counterfeiting problem has significant impacts on the US economy, US business interests, and US innovations in lost sales and lost jobs. Moreover, counterfeit products are often made quickly and cheaply, using materials that may be toxic. The companies producing these goods may not dispose of waste properly and may dump it into waterways, causing significant environmental consequences. Counterfeit products from electrical equipment and life jackets to batteries and smoke alarms may be made without adhering to safety standards or be properly tested. These products may fail to function when you need it and may lead to fire, electric shock, poisoning, and other accidents that can seriously injure and even kill consumers. Counterfeit cosmetics and pharmaceuticals can also lead to injuries by either including unsafe ingredients or by failing to provide the benefits of the real product. The Tariff Counterfeit Connection Tariffs may be seen as a tax on consumers and raise the price of imported products that are already the target of counterfeiters such as luxury leather products and apparel. It’s commonly understood that raising prices on genuine products can only drive up the demand for counterfeit goods. In general, consumers will have less disposable income and the brand goods they desire will cost more which is bound to increase the demand for counterfeit goods. Although recent changes removing the USD 800 tax exemption on de minimis shipments from China and Hong Kong will make it more expensive for counterfeiters to ship their goods internationally, tariffs are typically applied as a percentage of the cost of an object. This will cause the price of more expensive legitimate goods to increase even more than the cheaper counterfeit goods and likely make the counterfeit products even more attractive economically. Therefore, we expect to see an increase in counterfeit products as well as an increase in efforts to reduce the economic losses of counterfeiting. The Role of Technical Experts in Counterfeit Detection Technical experts play an important role in both the prevention and detection of counterfeits and helping to identify counterfeiting entities. Whether counterfeit money, clothing, shoes, electronics, cosmetics or pharmaceuticals, the first step in fighting counterfeits is detecting them. In some cases, the counterfeit product is obvious. A leather product may not be leather, a logo may be wrong, packaging may have a spelling mistake, or a holographic label may be missing. These products may be seized by customs. However, some counterfeit products are very difficult to detect. In the case of a counterfeit memory card with less than the stated capacity or a pharmaceutical that contains the wrong active ingredient, technical analysis may be needed to identify the parts. Technical analysis may also be used to try and identify the source of the counterfeit goods. For prevention measures, manufacturers may use radio frequency identification (RFID) or Near Field Communication (NFC) tags within their products. RFID tags are microscopic semiconductor chips attached to a metallic printed antenna. The tag itself may be flexible and easy to incorporate into packaging or into the product itself. A passive RFID requires no power and has sufficient storage to store information such as product name, stock keeping unit (SKU), place of manufacture, date of manufacture, as well as some sort of cryptographic information to attest to the authenticity of the tag. A simple scanner powers the tag using an electromagnetic field and reads the tag. If manufacturers include RFID tags in products, an X-ray to identify a product in a de minimis shipment (perhaps using artificial intelligence technology) and an RFID scanner to verify the authenticity of the product can be used to efficiently screen a large number of packages. Many products also may be marked with photo-luminescent dyes with unique properties that may be read by special scanners and allow authorities to detect legitimate products. Similarly, doped hybrid oxide particles with distinctive photo-responsive features may be printed on products. These particles, when exposed to laser light, experience a fast increase in temperature which may be quickly detected. For either of these examples, the ability to identify legitimate products, or – due to the absence of marking – track counterfeit products, allows authorities to map the flow of the counterfeit goods through the supply chain as they are manufactured, shipped, and are exported and imported to countries. For many years, electronic memory cards such as SD cards and USB sticks have been counterfeited. In many cases, the fake card will have a capacity much smaller than listed. For example, a 32GB memory card for a camera may only hold 1GB. Sometimes, these products may be identified by analyzing the packaging for discrepancies from the brand name products. In other cases, software must be used to verify the capacity and performance of each one, which is time-consuming when analyzing a large number of products. Forensic investigators, comprised of forensic accountants and forensic technologists, are heavily involved in efforts to combat this illicit trade. By analyzing financial records, supply-chain data, and transaction histories, they trace the origins and pathways of counterfeit products. Their work often involves identifying suspicious procurement patterns, shell companies, and irregular inventory flows that signal counterfeit activity. Forensic investigators often begin by mapping the counterfeit supply chain, an intricate web that often spans continents. Using data analytics, transaction tracing, and inventory audits, they identify anomalies in procurement, distribution, and sales records. These methodologies help pinpoint the origin of counterfeit goods, the intermediaries involved, and the final points of sale. By reconstructing the flow of goods and money, forensic investigators can begin to unmask activities. Cross-border partnerships are essential for tracking assets, sharing insights, and coordinating with financial regulators. Public-private partnerships further enhance the effectiveness of anti-counterfeiting efforts. Forensic investigators often serve as bridges between government agencies, brand owners, and financial institutions, facilitating the exchange of key information. These partnerships increase information-sharing, streamline investigations, and amplify the impact of enforcement actions. A promising development in this space is the World Customs Organization’s Smart Customs Project, which integrates artificial intelligence to detect and intercept counterfeit goods. Forensic investigators can leverage this initiative by analyzing AI-generated alerts and incorporating them into broader financial investigations, which allows for faster and more accurate identification of illicit networks. Jurisdictional complexity is a major hurdle in anti-counterfeiting efforts. Forensic investigators work closely with legal teams to navigate these challenges to ensure that investigations comply with local laws, and evidence is admissible and can withstand scrutiny in court, especially when dealing with offshore accounts and international money laundering schemes. Forensic investigators follow the money, tracing illicit profits through bank accounts, shell companies, and cryptocurrency transactions. Their findings not only help recover stolen assets but also support disputes by providing expert testimony that quantifies financial losses and identifies the bad actors. Conclusion Imitations of brand name products have become more convincing, harder to detect, and the sources of the counterfeit goods more difficult to identify. While counterfeiting clearly has evolved because of technological advancements, e-commerce, and the growing sophistication of bad actors, the process has now been complicated even further by the unpredictable tariff and trade policies that are affecting businesses worldwide. Consequently, companies need to take a multi-faceted approach to these new challenges introduced into the counterfeiting of products by tariffs. By engaging high-tech product authentication measures, utilizing technology-based alerts about counterfeits, and retaining the specialized skills of forensic investigators and other experts, companies will be able to navigate the risks posed by the complex and changing relationship between tariffs and counterfeit goods. To learn more about this topic and how it can impact your business or connect with James E. Malackowski simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today. To connect with David Fraser or Matthew Brown - contact : Kristi L. Stathis, J.S. Held +1 786 833 4864 Kristi.Stathis@JSHeld.com

A path to fair minerals trade: Researcher champions global trust model

As the world races to build cleaner energy systems and powerful AI technologies, the demand for critical minerals—like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths—is soaring. But with this demand comes rising global tension over who controls these resources. University of Delaware Professor Saleem Ali, an international expert in environmental policy and chair of UD's Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences, is suggesting a new way forward. In a new article published in Science, along with a United Nations policy brief, Ali and his coauthors propose the creation of a Global Minerals Trust. The article notes how the international plan would help countries work together to manage and share critical minerals fairly and sustainably—avoiding political fights, price shocks and environmental damage. “Without a shared framework, we risk deepening global inequalities, triggering unnecessary resource conflicts and undermining our ability to deliver on climate goals,” says Ali, who also leads the Critical Minerals and Inclusive Energy Transition program at the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health. The proposed Trust would use independent checks—similar to those used in nuclear safety—to make sure countries are meeting environmental and social standards. Each nation would keep control of its own resources but agree to prioritize sales of those minerals at market prices so that they can be used for clean energy infrastructure. The article builds on a TED Talk that Ali gave last year as part of the Rockefeller Foundation's "Big Bets" initiative. Ali is available for interviews on the topic and can be reached by clicking on his profile.

ExpertSpotlight: History of Yemen and the Houthi Rebels

The history of Yemen and the rise of the Houthi rebels is essential to understanding one of the world’s most complex humanitarian and geopolitical crises. Once considered a crossroads of ancient trade, Yemen has in recent decades become a focal point of conflict, regional power struggles, and human rights challenges. The conflict involving the Houthi movement has had global ramifications—from maritime security and oil trade routes to civilian displacement and famine. This topic matters to the public because it highlights the intersection of war, diplomacy, and humanitarian need, while prompting critical questions about international responsibility, peace-building, and regional stability. Key story angles that may interest a broad audience include: The roots and rise of the Houthi movement: Tracing the group’s origins, ideology, and evolution into a key political and military force in Yemen. Regional power dynamics: Analyzing the involvement of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other actors in fueling or resolving the conflict. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen: Investigating the scale of famine, disease outbreaks, displaced populations, and access to aid. The role of the international community: Exploring arms sales, ceasefire negotiations, and accountability in the context of international law. Maritime security and global trade: Understanding how conflict in Yemen affects Red Sea shipping routes and international energy markets. The future of peace and governance: Examining potential pathways to a political resolution and the reconstruction of a stable Yemeni state. Connect with an expert about Yemen and the Houthi rebels: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com

#ExpertSpotlight: Erin go bragh!

St. Patrick’s Day, celebrated annually on March 17, has evolved from a solemn religious observance to a worldwide cultural phenomenon. Rooted in the legacy of St. Patrick, the patron saint of Ireland, this holiday is now synonymous with parades, green attire, and festive gatherings. While often viewed as a day of Irish pride and heritage, its historical significance and evolving traditions reveal deeper cultural and social themes. As millions prepare to celebrate, this topic provides an opportunity to explore the rich history, religious roots, and modern interpretations of St. Patrick’s Day. Key story angles include: The Life and Legacy of St. Patrick: Exploring the history of St. Patrick, his role in spreading Christianity in Ireland, and how myths like driving out the snakes became associated with him. The Evolution of St. Patrick’s Day Celebrations: Tracing the transition from a religious feast day to a global celebration of Irish heritage. How Different Countries Celebrate: Highlighting the unique ways St. Patrick’s Day is observed worldwide, from Ireland’s official events to large-scale parades in the U.S., Canada, and Australia. The Economic and Tourism Impact: Analyzing how St. Patrick’s Day boosts tourism, pub sales, and the hospitality industry. The Role of Irish Diaspora Communities: Examining how Irish immigrants and their descendants helped popularize St. Patrick’s Day in countries like the United States. Cultural Appropriation vs. Authentic Celebration: Discussing debates over commercialization, stereotypes, and efforts to preserve the cultural integrity of the holiday. As St. Patrick’s Day continues to be a widely recognized celebration, its history and traditions offer a compelling look at cultural identity, globalization, and the intersection of faith and festivity. Connect with an expert about St. Patrick's Day: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com

How a Fraudster Almost Stole Graceland

In a recent case that left many “All Shook Up," a Missouri woman attempted to defraud the Presley family by claiming ownership of the iconic Graceland estate. Most stories involving “The King” make for good reading, and they also hold an important lesson for homeowners. This bold scheme is a stark reminder that fraud knows no boundaries—whether you live in a mansion or a modest home, fraudsters can and will target anyone. The Graceland Fraud Attempt Lisa Jeanine Findley, a 53-year-old from Missouri, orchestrated a plan to defraud Elvis Presley’s family of millions by attempting to claim ownership of Graceland. She falsely alleged that Lisa Marie Presley had used Graceland as collateral for a $3.8 million loan that remained unpaid at the time of her death in 2023. To support her claims, Findley fabricated loan documents and filed fraudulent foreclosure notices, threatening to auction the estate if the supposed debt wasn’t settled. Riley Keough, Lisa Marie’s daughter and heir to Graceland, challenged these claims in court, asserting that no such loan existed and labeling the foreclosure attempt as fraudulent. The court sided with Keough, blocking the sale and prompting Findley to withdraw her claims. Subsequently, Findley was arrested and charged with mail fraud and aggravated identity theft. She pleaded guilty in February 2025 and faces up to 20 years in prison, with sentencing scheduled for June 18, 2025. Lawrence v. Maple Trust - A Canadian Fraud Attempt Closer to home, in 2006, Toronto homeowner Susan Lawrence fell victim to a similar scheme. Fraudsters transferred the title of her fully paid-off home into their names and registered a fraudulent mortgage with Maple Trust. Lawrence only discovered the fraud when she attempted to access her home equity. After an initial ruling forced her to bear the mortgage debt, she appealed. The Ontario Court of Appeal reversed the decision, ruling that the lender should bear the loss, not the innocent homeowner. The case took nearly two years to resolve and cost Lawrence an estimated $50,000 to $100,000 in legal fees—not to mention the emotional and financial stress. Lessons for Homeowners about Fraud This case highlights several critical lessons for homeowners: 1. Be Vigilant Against Fraudulent Claims: If fraudsters can attempt to steal Graceland, they can target your home too. Monitor your property records for unauthorized changes. 2. Don't Divulge Sensitive Information: Fraudsters can use social engineering tactics to piece together important information you share and use it to forge or alter property ownership records etc.  Be careful with what you share, especially with strangers. 3. Regularly Monitor Property Records: Periodically checking public records for any unauthorized liens or claims against your property can help detect and address fraud early. Online credit reporting services such as Credit Karma offer free apps and email alerts that can help you spot potential fraud. 4. Beware of Contracts: Watch out for deceptive practices employed by certain rental companies, leading to unexpected financial obligations and complications. Using deceptive, high-pressure sales tactics, these companies can leave homeowners burdened with property liens after signing contracts for appliances like furnaces, air conditioners, and water heaters. If you are faced with this, don't rush the process.  Do some additional research and/or take the next step below. 5. Consult Legal Professionals: If you are pressured to sign a contract, receive dubious claims, or receive foreclosure notices, seek advice from qualified legal professionals to navigate the situation effectively. 4. Secure Title Insurance: Title insurance protects homeowners against potential defects in the title, including fraudulent claims. It’s a crucial safeguard that can prevent significant financial loss. Let’s unpack this last point about Title Insurance. What is Title Insurance: Your Best Defence Title insurance is a safeguard for homeowners, protecting them against potential issues related to the ownership of their property. This insurance ensures that the homeowner is shielded from financial loss if any unforeseen problems with the property’s title arise. Title insurance is a policy that protects property owners and lenders against financial loss resulting from defects in a property’s title. These defects can include unknown liens, encroachments, zoning violations, or even fraud that may have occurred before the homeowner acquired the property. Unlike other insurance types that cover future events, title insurance addresses past events that could affect property ownership. Why is Title Insurance Necessary? Purchasing a property is often the most significant investment individuals make. Title insurance provides peace of mind by ensuring the property’s title is clear and free from unforeseen issues. Without this protection, homeowners could face legal disputes or financial losses if a problem with the title emerges after the purchase. For instance, if a previous owner’s unpaid taxes or undisclosed heirs come forward claiming ownership, title insurance would cover the legal fees and potential losses associated with resolving these issues. The Cost of Title Insurance in Canada In Canada, the cost of title insurance varies depending on factors such as the property’s value and location. Typically, premiums for residential properties range from $250 to $500. However, the cost can increase for higher-valued properties. This premium is a one-time payment made during the closing process and remains valid for as long as the homeowner owns the property. Providers of Title Insurance in Canada Several reputable companies in Canada offer title insurance. Some of the prominent providers include: FCT (First Canadian Title) Stewart Title Please note: None of the providers above are sponsored links. How to Check if You Have Title Insurance If you’re uncertain whether you have title insurance, consider the following steps: 1. Review Your Closing Documents: Examine the paperwork you received during the property’s purchase. Look for any mention of title insurance policies. 2. Contact your real estate lawyer: The legal professional who helped with your property purchase should have records showing whether title insurance was obtained. 3. Contact Title Insurance Providers: Most Title Insurance companies maintain issued policy records. Contacting them directly can help confirm whether a policy exists for your property. Homeowners Without a Mortgage: A Higher Risk Group If you’re a homeowner who owns their property outright, you can be at a higher risk concerning title-related issues. Why? Fewer parties (such as lenders) monitor the property’s status when no mortgage is in place. By contrast, when a mortgage is involved, most lenders today, as a rule, require title insurance to protect their investment, indirectly safeguarding the homeowner as well. However, some homeowners might overlook obtaining title insurance without a lender's mandate. This leaves you more vulnerable to potential title defects or fraudulent claims against your property. Real estate fraud is not a problem reserved for the wealthy—any homeowner can become a target. Securing title insurance and staying vigilant is the best way to protect your property and your financial future.   It's such an important topic, I'll be sharing more tips on title insurance in future posts.  After all, as Elvis might say, “What I say is true; if it could happen to the King, it could happen to you.” Don’t Retire … Re-Wire! Sue

Has the SuperBowl Priced Itself out of Fans?

It's arguably one of the 'must-see' sporting events in the world.  But this year fans seem to be a little reluctant to spend those hard earned dollars to watch the Kansas City Chiefs attempt a three-peat and a chance at history. It's a topic that's getting a lot of coverage leading up to the big game this Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs might make history this weekend, but ticket prices aren’t reflecting that. The cheapest ticket for Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans has fallen below $4,000 on the secondary market, according to reseller TickPick, marking a 30% decline over the past week — and more than 50% cheaper compared to last year’s record-breaking Super Bowl. The Chiefs, who face the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, are hoping to be the first team to win three successive Super Bowl rings. Despite that historic feat on the line, fans apparently aren’t excited to splash out big bucks. There are a few potential reasons related to this year’s host city — and perhaps a slight dose of Chiefs fatigue. Last year’s matchup between the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers was the most expensive Super Bowl on record, partly because it took place in the party mecca of Las Vegas for the first time. However, New Orleans “doesn’t have the same appeal” as Las Vegas, TickPick CEO Brett Goldberg said. New Orleans’ larger seating capacity is pushing prices lower as well, Goldberg said. The Caesars Superdome holds about 74,000 seats, whereas the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas holds around 65,000 seats. The host city is also still reeling from a terrorist attack last month when a man drove a pickup truck into a crowd and opened fire, killing 14 people and injuring at least 35. Then there’s the matchup itself. Football fans are bored by a third straight Chiefs Super Bowl bid, resulting in TickPick “seeing less interest from fans looking to attend,” Goldberg told CNN. “Had the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders or Buffalo Bills made it this far, it’d be a much different story as it relates to current prices.”  February 03 - CNN It's an interesting topic and there are questions to be asked Does ticket demand and attendance really matter to the NFL and its sponsors? Why is viewership more important than attendance and ticket prices for the Super Bowl? Location, location, location. It’s always the same issue but what’s different this year? The NFL is big business and if you're a journalist covering the Super Bowl this Sunday - then let us help with your stories. Kirk Wakefield, Ph.D., is The Edwin W. Streetman Professor of Retail Marketing at Baylor University, where he is the Executive Director of the Curb Center for Sales Strategy in Sports and Entertainment (S3E) program in the Hankamer School of Business. Kirk is available to speak with media - simply click on his icon ow to arrange an interview today.

Holiday shopping season set to begin with questions about Black Friday, consumer behavior

Is Black Friday still a thing? Online sales have been outpacing brick-and-mortar sales for years, resulting in shorter lines and less of a frenzy at stores on the day after Thanksgiving. Many stores have also gone online with deals to compliment in-person shopping. University of Delaware experts can comment on this and other topics related to the holiday shopping season and gift-buying behavior. Andong Cheng: Can provide tips on what to prepare for during this unique holiday shopping season. Her research focuses on defining and identifying the picky consumer segment, and explores how pickiness impacts other judgments and decisions. She advises consumers to consider the phenomenon of double mental discounting, where shoppers experience a “mental accounting phenomenon” when offered promotional credit. Jackie Silverman: Research examines several facets of judgment and decision making and consumer psychology. According to Silverman, there are many potential benefits of online shopping for consumers, including some unconventional approaches to gift giving this season. Philip Gable: Can talk about the science behind the art of gift-giving that goes beyond the material exchange — emotional nuances that also can be applied to charitable work and philanthropy. He says that significance contributes to the happiness we experience in gift-giving. Matthew McGranaghan: Studies the economics of consumer attention and the indirect effects of marketing interventions. He explains that there is a difference in how businesses are innovating and utilizing online retail methods to connect with consumers this holiday season. Bintong Chen: Can discuss the systematic nature of supply chain issues. He recommends shoppers use major retailers like Amazon and Walmart, whose companies use their own shipping fleets to minimize disruptions. Caroline Swift: Examines supply chain transparency and the interactions between regulation and business performance.

Black Friday Shoppers Seek Deals on Electronics, Early Sales and Convenience in a Competitive Market

This year’s Black Friday shopping will bring a fresh wave of trends for both consumers and retailers. With electronics, online convenience and competitive pricing at the forefront, the landscape of Black Friday is evolving to match the shifting shopping habits of today’s consumers, said Baylor University consumer behavior expert James A. Roberts, Ph.D. Roberts – who serves as The Ben H. Williams Professor of Marketing at Baylor’s Hankamer School of Business – keeps a close watch on Black Friday, including what he sees as the Top 5 trends for holiday shopping in 2024. Top Trends for Black Friday 2024 The Shift in Shopping Habits: The balance between online and in-store sales remains steady, with consumers enjoying a 50/50 split in shopping preference, Robert said. While COVID-19 accelerated a surge in online shopping, this year, both are expected to perform equally as shoppers appreciate the flexibility of both options. Holiday Deals Start Early: As the competitive landscape has grown, Black Friday sales now launch weeks in advance. This early kickoff benefits consumers who are eager to lock in discounts and spreads out the typical holiday rush, providing retailers a longer window to capture consumer interest, Roberts noted. Electronics Dominate Sales: As in previous years, electronics will be the driving force of Black Friday 2024, accounting for nearly half of all sales. Roberts said that shoppers are especially focused on deals for televisions, laptops, smartwatches and gaming consoles – underscoring the lasting demand for high-quality technology at competitive prices. Gen Z and Millennials Drive Online Growth: Digital natives like Gen Z and Millennials continue to shape holiday shopping habits. Roberts said their comfort with online shopping – coupled with their mobile-first approach – makes them a powerful force in the online retail space. Retailers can expect these younger consumers to leverage social media, mobile apps and seamless e-commerce platforms for their holiday purchases. Rising Categories: Beyond electronics, Roberts predicts that other sectors will see strong sales this season, particularly in clothing, cosmetics and home appliances. As consumer preferences expand, brands in these categories should prepare for increased demand. Factors shaping consumer choices For Black Friday in 2024, competitive pricing and convenience remain top priorities, Roberts said. “Retailers who offer the best deals alongside quick and reliable delivery options stand out among consumers,” he said. Additionally, low-cost brands – such as Shein – have set consumer expectations for affordable pricing, even as “Buy Now, Pay Later” options have increased in popularity – though Roberts said retailers and consumers alike should be cautious when using this financing option at the risk of overspending. Future of Black Friday Looking ahead, Roberts said Black Friday’s trajectory appears geared more towards online channels, with each year seeing a slight shift away from brick-and-mortar shopping. Retailers are encouraged to keep an eye on pricing expectations and financing trends, as they’ll play an increasingly influential role in the holiday season. ABOUT JAMES A. ROBERTS, PH.D. James A. Roberts, Ph.D., is The Ben H. Williams Professor of Marketing at Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business. A noted consumer behavior expert, he is among the "World's Top 2%" most-cited scientists in a database compiled by Stanford University. In addition to journal citations, Roberts has often been called upon by national media outlets for his consumer expertise and latest research. He has appeared on the CBS Early Show, ABC World News Tonight, ABC Good Morning America, NBC’s TODAY Show and NPR’s Morning Edition, as well as in articles in The New York Times, USA TODAY, The Wall Street Journal, TIME and many others. Roberts’ research has focused on how individual consumer attitudes and behavior impact personal and collective well-being. His research has investigated the factors that drive ecologically and socially conscious consumer behavior, the impact of materialism and compulsive buying on well-being and the impact of smartphone and social media use on personal well-being. He is the author of “Shiny Objects: Why We Spend Money We Don’t Have in Search of Happiness We Can’t Buy” and “Too Much of a Good Thing: Are You Addicted to Your Smartphone?”

Expert Opinion - The Undisclosed Risks of Off-brand Ozempic and Other Weight Loss Products

The popularity -- and price -- of brand-name injectable drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound has skyrocketed. But the soaring demand for these drugs -- used for weight loss as well as to control blood sugar levels and reduce the risk of heart disease -- and the limited supply as well as lack of generic options has also led to a flood of non-brand alternatives in the market. In a recent article for The Conversation, UConn expert C. Michael White, Distinguished Professor of Pharmacy Practice, issued a warning to consumers about the potential undisclosed risks of these off-brand products: High demand is driving GLP-1 wannabes The dietary supplement market has sought to cash in on the GLP-1 demand with pills, teas, extracts and all manner of other products that claim to produce similar effects as the brand names at a much lower price. Products containing the herb berberine offer only a few pounds of weight loss, while many dietary supplement weight loss products contain stimulants such as sibutramine and laxatives such as phenolphthalein, which increase the risk of heart attacks, strokes and cancer. The role of compounding pharmacies Unlike the dietary supplements that are masquerading as GLP-1 weight loss products, compounding pharmacies can create custom versions of products that contain the same active ingredients as the real thing for patients who cannot use either brand or generic products for some reason. These pharmacies can also produce alternative versions of brand-name drugs when official drug shortages exist. Since the demand for GLP-1 medications has far outpaced the supply, compounding pharmacies are legally producing a variety of different semaglutide and tirzepatide products. These products may come in versions that differ from the brand-name companies, such as vials of powder that must be dissolved in liquid, or as tablets or nasal sprays. Just like the brand-name drugs, you must have a valid prescription to receive them. The prices range from $250-$400 a month – still a steep price for many consumers. Compounding pharmacies must adhere to the FDA’s sterility and quality production methods, but these rules are not as rigorous for compounding pharmacies as those for commercial manufacturers of generic drugs. In addition, the products compounding pharmacies create do not have to be tested in humans for safety or effectiveness like brand-name products do. Proper dosing can also be challenging with compounded forms of the drugs. Companies that work the system For people who cannot afford a compounding pharmacy product, or cannot get a valid prescription for semaglutide or tirzepatide, opportunistic companies are stepping in to fill the void. These include “peptide companies,” manufacturers that create non-FDA approved knockoff versions of the drugs. From November 2023 to March 2024, my team carried out a study to assess which of these peptide companies are selling semaglutide or tirzepatide products. We scoured the internet looking for these peptide companies and collected information about what they were selling and their sales practices. We found that peptide sellers use a loophole to sell these drugs. On their websites, the companies state that their drugs are for “research purposes only” or “not for human consumption,” but they do nothing to verify that the buyers are researchers or that the product is going to a research facility. By reading the comments sections of the company websites and the targeted ads on social media, it becomes clear that both buyers and sellers understand the charade. Unlike compounding pharmacies, these peptide sellers do not provide the supplies you need to dissolve and inject the drug, provide no instructions, and will usually not answer questions. Peptide sellers, since they allegedly are not selling to consumers, do not require a valid prescription and will sell consumers whatever quantity of drug they wish to purchase. Even if a person has an eating disorder such as anorexia nervosa, the companies will happily sell them a semaglutide or tirzepatide product without a prescription. The average prices of these peptide products range from $181-$203 per month. Skirting regulations Peptide sellers do not have to adhere to the rules or regulations that drug manufacturers or compounding pharmacies do. Many companies state that their products are 99% pure, but an independent investigation of three companies’ products from August 2023 to March 2024 found that the purity of the products were far less than promised. One product contained endotoxin – a toxic substance produced by bacteria – suggesting that it was contaminated with microbes. In addition, the products’ promised dosages were off by up 29% to 39%. Poor purity can cause patients to experience fever, chills, nausea, skin irritation, infections and low blood pressure. In this study, some companies never even shipped the drug, telling the buyers they needed to pay an additional fee to have the product clear customs. If a consumer is harmed by a poor-quality product, it would be difficult to sue the seller, since the products specifically say they are “not for human consumption.” Ultimately, consumers are being led to spend money on products that may never arrive, could cause an infection, might not have the correct dose, and contain no instructions on how to safely use or store the product. Dr. C. Michael White is an expert in the areas of comparative effectiveness and preventing adverse events from drugs, devices, dietary supplements, and illicit substances. Dr. White is available to speak with media -- click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

MLB playoffs are back!

It's October ... and that means one thing in America:  Major League Baseball playoffs are set to begin. It means wall to wall broadcasts of games, massive advertising buys and gate receipts that means a serious stream of revenue for all of the teams, players and owners who made it through a long season and survived to be one of the dozen teams left to play for the Commissioner's Trophy. It's going to be a wild few weeks for baseball fans and the reporters covering the games. And if you're a journalist looking to know how important the marketing and business sides are to the the playoffs - then let us help with your stories. Kirk Wakefield, Ph.D., is The Edwin W. Streetman Professor of Retail Marketing at Baylor University, where he is the Executive Director of the Curb Center for Sales Strategy in Sports and Entertainment (S3E) program in the Hankamer School of Business. Kirk is available to speak with media - simply click on his icon ow to arrange an interview today.