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Putting a price tag on environmental projects

Unlike a grocery store, the goods and services in the environment — think clean water, tree cover, or flood control — don’t come with a price tag. Researchers in the University of Delaware Department of Applied Economics and Statistics have received a $1.5 million grant to assess the value of what is gained or lost from environmental projects. The three-year grant from the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, the chief research and development center for the federal environmental engineering agency U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, will pave the way for UD environmental economists to develop a web-based platform to help the Corps.  The research team is led by Maik Kecinski, associate professor in the Department of Applied Economics and Statistics and also includes department colleagues Kent Messer and Martin Heintzelman, as well as three graduate researchers. The team will create an online platform to help the Corps estimate the monetary value of the ecosystem impacts through its ongoing and proposed projects across the U.S. Kecinski said many of the Corps’ projects involve natural resources, such as building dams or restoring rivers. Those projects require labor hours and equipment, each with a market value. “But the big piece the Corps doesn’t have is what is the environmental value that’s created or lost through these projects?” Kecinski said. The project came about after ERDC representatives visited UD in 2023. Kent Messer, Professor of Applied Economics, presented research about behavioral aspects around water quality and conservation and learned about ERDC’s research needs. Messer said that the big takeaway from those discussions was that ERDC was interested in having a platform to show the ecosystem services value of its projects. “So that was an exciting opportunity to connect and partner with them on the development of a tool that could help them in this regard,” Messer said. Messer said the opportunity to work with the Corps to assess its projects nationwide is “huge” for the University and for UD’s College of Agriculture and Natural Resources. “It speaks enormously to our college’s prominence in environmental economics issues,” Messer said. Martin Heintzelman, chair of UD's Department of Applied Economics and Statistics, said the project will help raise the profile of the department. “This is really in our wheelhouse in terms of the kind of research we do,” Heintzelman said. “It’s a great opportunity for us to be applying research to policymakers, people who are going to use this work to make better decisions as they’re going about their work constructing, managing, and sometimes de-constructing water and related projects.” The researchers hope the web-based platform will play a role in policy and decision-making, helping the Corps make more informed decisions on environmental projects in the future. “One thing I hope is going to come from this is the choices we make today are going to create a better tomorrow. That’s what it is all about” Kecinski said.

The Handshake Seen 'Round The World

More than 50 million viewers were expecting a cold standoff to start last night's debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. University of Delaware experts say Trump was likely more shocked than they were when Harris walked to his podium for a cordial handshake. "It was a clearly planned move on Harris' part intending to assert some dominance over someone whose entire schtick is about being dominant. And it was successful, and I think it discomforted Trump," said David Redlawsk, professor of political science and international relations. Erin Cassese, professor of political science and international relations, said the move exuded confidence, especially given that President Biden and former-President Trump did not shake hands at the outset of their July debate. "Harris’s pursuit of the handshake showed off the bat that she would engage in this debate on her own terms, Cassese said. "It also had Trump on the back foot, as he seemed not to expect the gesture." Cassese said the handshake also offset any advantage Trump might have gained due to the podium setup, which could have highlighted their height differential. "But the handshake showed that Harris was not intimidated by the difference in stature," Cassese said. Redlawsk is a political psychologist who studies voter behavior and emotion, focusing on how voters process political information to make their decisions. He has written several books on politics, worked behind the scenes on campaigns and ran for local office. Cassese explores the behavior of women as voters and candidates for political office in the United States. Her areas of expertise are gender, abortion, public opinion, campaigns and elections. To set up an interview either either expert, reporters can visit their ExpertFile pages and clicking on the "contact" button.

In Ancient Egypt, One Villanova Professor Sees Modern Lessons

During the Old Kingdom (2700-2200 B.C.E.), Memphis was the epicenter of Egyptian civilization. A key strategic point in the Nile Delta region, it long served as the seat from which the Pharaoh ruled his domain, exerted his influence and marshaled his military might. Bustling with activity, it teemed with craftspeople, clerics and courtiers, and its whitewashed walls reverberated with the sounds of enterprise, exaltation and empire. Four-and-a-half millennia later, sifting through the silent sands near Mit Rahina, Villanova University associate teaching professor Kelly-Anne Diamond, PhD, is working to recover the last traces of this once-thriving metropolis. In collaboration with a team of academics, graduate students and Egyptian artisans, she hopes to shed new light on what life was like in the "lost city" of Memphis—and to explore its long-buried connections to the present day. The Memphis Kôm el-Fakhry Archaeological Project "We call our initiative the 'Memphis Kôm el-Fakhry Archaeological Project,' or 'MKAP' for short, and we're excavating one particular mound in a series that make up the ancient city," said Dr. Diamond, who co-directs the effort. "I was very excited when I was invited to join the project, especially at its inception. There aren't many settlement sites [like this one]. We could probably count them on one hand." With its focus on "settled" land, MKAP is contributing to a growing body of research in Egyptology, or the study of ancient Egyptian history, culture and society, that centers on the experiences of everyday people. It's an area of significant interest for Dr. Diamond, who's previously investigated mourning traditions and sex and gender in the pharaonic era. "Currently, most of our knowledge is about the king, his extended family and the people who worked for him," she said. "This is one of the reasons why I think working at Memphis is so fascinating. When you work at a settlement site, this is where you're going to find information about regular people—about women, about children, about the elderly, about family structure." Already, MKAP has yielded findings that could challenge contemporary understandings of life in ancient Egypt. In particular, the discovery of an Old Kingdom-aged adult skeleton, within the bounds of the excavated mound, has spurred questions. "What we found doesn't necessarily line up with what we currently believe about Old Kingdom burial practices, because other evidence suggests that where people lived and where people buried their dead were two separate locations," shared Dr. Diamond. "Generally, we say that they lived in Kemet—which is the 'black land,' or the land where there's very, very rich soil—and were interred in Deshret, or the 'desert.' "Now, we do know that there was a First Intermediate Period (2181-2055 B.C.E.) cemetery at the site, adjacent to the settlement. We also know that, as the town progressed and people continued to live there, access to the cemetery was cut off. As we were going deeper into the settlement, which means that we were going into earlier levels, this is where we found the adult skeleton. The pottery in the area seems to suggest that we hit Old Kingdom levels, which would take us earlier than the First Intermediate Period cemetery. "Potentially, we need to reevaluate what we know about Egyptian burial customs." From the Past to the Present For some, the significance of a centuries-old corpse might be lost. And, in an age of smartphones, electric cars and highspeed Internet, the world in which the Memphians lived might seem on its face absolutely foreign. But, in unearthing the contents of the MKAP mound and in studying the minutiae of ancient life, Dr. Diamond sees important lessons—lessons that echo throughout time. As she maintains, the remnants of communal meals, religious rituals and day-to-day work, and their existence in the distant past, serve as powerful reminders of our enduring humanity. "One of the things I find, with my students, is that they're surprised that ancient Egypt was such a complex civilization," said Dr. Diamond. "They're surprised when we talk about technologies and social mobility—that these early people, whether improving on weapons and farming tools or seeking promotions, had a sense of progress, efficiency and change. "But, most of all, they're surprised at how similar life in ancient Egypt was to what they experience on a regular basis today. And that's how I often introduce my courses: What you know about life, or life as you know it, started back in the ancient Near East, in Egypt and Mesopotamia. So, we can find the origins of all these things that we know by going back to the ancient Near East. "And history did not start in Greece and Rome. We have to go back earlier." Editor's note: Following the filming of the videos above, Dr. Diamond was promoted from assistant teaching professor to associate teaching professor. 

Trending News: Women in Politics

Gender and politics - it's a trending topic these days as Kamala Harris' surging in the polls may put her in the position to be America's first female president. And, when media are covering the topic, it's the experts from University of Mary Washington they're contacting. Rosalyn Cooperman is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, VA. Cooperman’s research focuses on the relationship between political parties, PACs, and women candidates, as well as elite attitudes regarding women’s political participation. Recently she has been featured in and the Arizona Mirror, the Centre for American Women in Politics. View profile *** Recent Media Arizona Mirror “I don’t know that there’s any real fidelity to any stance on an issue unless it’s perceived to be useful — abortion being one of a very long list,” said Rosalyn Cooperman, who studies Republican candidates and political leaders at the University of Mary Washington. “If you look at what he has said over time, it is what is politically expedient.” Marketplace "They are a political action committee, but they can raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations, unions, individuals, but they can’t coordinate directly with the parties or candidates." CAWP "Progressive PACs are continuing to use abortion-related messages in fundraising appeals while conservative women’s PACs are not" - Rosalyn Cooperman Dr. Cooperman is available to speak to media – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.

If You Hate University Rankings Here’s One You Might Like

If your university cares about fostering research and innovation and you haven’t heard of the PitchBook Startup Index, you might want to pay closer attention to this data. While it doesn't look like the PitchBook folks are aiming to be a big player in the world of academic rankings, their detailed tracking activity of startup investments, which includes deal size, school affiliation, and employees, gives us a window into how each institution is performing on startup activity. Why This Is a University Ranking We Can Trust It's Objective: These rankings are based on detailed startup data that PitchBook dutifully tracks as part of many paid services it provides for clients that include VC's, Private Equity Funds and government agencies. The investors who pay for access to the underlying data expect accuracy and there is a considerable amount of meta information available for tracking as startups raise money and hire employees. It's Simple: The PitchBook rankings are free of the typical complexity found in other rankings such as the US News & World Report. They simply use a few key metrics including the number of startup founders affiliated with new ventures created at each institution and how much investment capital they have raised. It's Revealing: Ranking this data as a Top 100 Index gives us a good comparative view of which Universities are doing a good job of creating an entrepreneurial environment that stimulates learning and research while attracting investment capital and creating high-value jobs. Universities Need to Tell the Story Behind this Data to Build Support for Their Research & Startups This data is followed closely by University Research and Tech Transfer Offices. However, it should also be actively used by other departments, such as University Marketing and Communications, Government Affairs, Enrolment and Fundraising/Development which need to build support with legislators, policymakers, funding agencies, donors, and corporate partners - and yes, new student prospects.  The relevance and accuracy of these rankings make this an important opportunity for you to tell your story and engage these audiences. "Promoting stories about your startups provides the perfect opportunity to demonstrate the relevance of your programs and narrow the gap between "town and gown." It's an opportunity to show how your faculty experts and researchers are nurturing innovation through startups to improve the lives of people in your local community and beyond." Did Your University Make the List?  If the answer is yes, congrats! We would be remiss if I didn't recognize our clients who made the Top 100.  Take a bow University of Florida, Vanderbilt University, University of Massachusetts, Michigan State University, University of California, Irvine and Rensselaer Polytechnic. Now it's time to get to work. As someone who has worked closely with startups and Universities over the past two decades, I see the immense value they create.  That's why I'm surprised whenever I see university marketing teams missing valuable opportunities for promoting their faculty and research through the lens of startup activities. The Benefits of Celebrating Startups Research on startups (Shenkoya, 2023) shows that key factors such as access to research funds, dedicated faculty, size of dedicated staff (academic and non-academic), access to practical entrepreneurship courses, and non-regular curriculum startup activities are key factors responsible for success of University startups.  However, proper funding for these programs in a challenging environment requires that Universities more effectively communicate the value they are delivering.  Here's where you can shine: Media: This is an obvious opportunity, especially with local outlets. It provides the perfect opportunity to demonstrate the relevance of your programs and narrow the gap between "town and gown." Show how these startups are looking to improve the lives of people in the community.  Corporate Partners: Startups are a natural focal point for conversations with industry partners, especially when you can speak to key market sectors and breakthrough research that faculty are focused on. Speak to how you are giving them more direct access to a pool of talented graduates. Also, don't forget to speak to programs you may be running in the areas of internships, mentorship programs, sponsored research, and curriculum development.  Don't forget that engaging in educational partnerships helps companies improve their CSR profile, which can enhance their public image and brand.  Also, explore how partners can financially support needed infrastructure improvements on the campus with funding for new facilities or new equipment. Students: Giving startups an opportunity to tell their stories and celebrate their achievements is one of the best ways to demonstrate how you are aligning your educational and entrepreneurship programs with industry needs.  And don't forget to include your corporate partners.  As employers, they are in the best position to show how you are preparing students for next-generation jobs. Show students how they will get direct exposure to the industry through programs you may be running, such as co-op terms, internships, and mentorships, and startup events such as boot camps and pitch competitions. Government: The data clearly shows that startups create high-value jobs and contribute to GDP growth.  But governments today need constant reassurance that the funds they put into education and research are generating impact.  You have to show the relevance of your startups by outlining how they are solving big societal problems that matter to voters. How are your startups leading socio-economic transformation for local communities and competing effectively on a global stage? Tips for Telling Your Startup Stories Focus on People Humanize your story by speaking directly to how founders and their teams are approaching key market and societal challenges.  Focus on important "origin story" elements such as their personal challenges or insights that led them to their first discovery.   Focus on notable collaborations they formed.  How were faculty members or alumni involved in helping with research and market development or industry relationships?   Create a story arc. Give your audience an appreciation for how hard startups are and the amount of uncertainty and risk they face in developing new innovations.  Startups are not an overnight success.  People are even more inspired by non-linear journeys that show the grit and determination that founders need to bring to their startups. Focus on Programs Always be thinking about how founders and their stories can help boost student enrolment by connecting their origin stories to specific experiences they had on the campus. Ask them how specific courses and programs prepared them for their entrepreneurial journey. Also ask them what other experiences such as campus mentorship programs, hackathons or pitch competitions helped them achieve specific breakthroughs and milestones. Focus on Photos & Videos  Startups provide a great opportunity to engage your audience visually.  Go beyond boring headshots, monolithic campus buildings, and staged stock images. Instead, use imagery that shows people creating new and exciting things together.  This is not a time to be shy about asking founders, faculty, and funders to get in the shot and be recognized for their contributions.  While you may think photo ops are overly promotional, they often help your partners communicate back to their constituency the importance of supporting your work. Walk the campus to get behind the scenes and show lab facilities, technology prototypes, and in-field work.   Partners Profile notable investors, faculty, foundations, government agencies, alumni and corporate partners who may have invested time, money and other resources that help validate the quality of the startups you are helping build.  Remember, startups are like a barn-raising, that involves a larger community.  Give these partners an opportunity to be visible part of the story and they will celebrate with you and amplify your message to reach a bigger, more engaged audience.  Proof Show evidence that the startups you are supporting are making a difference.  Use your startups as an opportunity to speak to the bigger picture of why your institution matters. Speak to how they are tackling bigger challenges in areas such as environment, healthcare, social justice, the economy, physical infrastructure, security, election integrity and social innovation.  Also make sure to demonstrate measurable impact in key areas such as: Total Addressable Market Job creation  Investment activities Industry Awards Partnerships Patents Customer /Revenue Milestones It's Your Time to Shine In an era where impact is increasingly measured by the ability to translate research into real-world applications, universities have a unique opportunity to show the value of their startup ecosystems. But you need to get the stories out beyond the campus.  Use your momentum to build a compelling narrative that makes your startups the heroes of your institution's story. 

Low Turnout Expected for Updated COVID Vaccine

Dr. Martine Hackett, associate professor and chair of Hofstra’s Department of Population Health, told Newsday that she believes many people will not get the recently updated vaccine for COVID-19. Less than a quarter of adults and less than 15 percent of children received last year’s vaccine. “I would predict that there would be much less of an uptake, in part because folks have gotten COVID in big numbers over the last few months; there was a summer surge. So some people might feel like they don’t need the vaccine because they feel protected from their recent infection,” she said. “But just in general, there’s just a lack of urgency around the need to get the most recent version of the vaccine.” Dr. Hackett's research focuses on public health and health inequities, particularly in the American suburbs and minority communities. She's available to speak with media - simply click on her icon now to arrange an interview today.

Aston Institute for Forensic Linguistics appoints new director

Dr Krzysztof Kredens, a reader in forensic linguistics at the University, took up the position on 1 August 2024 The move comes after founding director, Professor Tim Grant, announced he was stepping down Dr Nicci MacLeod, who completed her PhD at the university in 2006, has been promoted to deputy director. The Aston Institute for Forensic Linguistics (AIFL) has announced the appointment of Dr Krzysztof Kredens as its new director. Dr Kredens is a reader in forensic linguistics and was one of the three founding members of the Centre for Forensic Linguistics (CFL), the predecessor to AIFL, when he joined Aston University in 2007. He takes over the role vacated by fellow founding member of the Centre and latterly Institute, Professor Tim Grant, who steps down after five years as AIFL Director, and another six as CFL director prior to that. Dr Nicci MacLeod has been appointed as deputy director, with both commencing their new roles on 1 August 2024. Dr MacLeod is a senior lecturer in forensic linguistics and has been involved with the subject at the University since beginning her PhD in 2006. She has been programme director for the MA Forensic Linguistics since 2022. The mission of AIFL is to improve the delivery of justice through the analysis of language. Its experts study forensic texts and contexts producing academically rigorous, high impact research using insights and methods from diverse areas of linguistics to achieve this mission. Dr Kredens said: “I am delighted to be taking up the role of director at the Aston Institute for Forensic Linguistics. “On behalf of the Institute, I would like to thank Professor Tim Grant for his service as CFL/AIFL Director. His leadership over the years has been invaluable and his impact has been profound. “While he will be stepping down from his role, he will continue to share his expertise and experience and keep contributing to AIFL and the University in other capacities. Dr MacLeod said: “It has been a genuine privilege to work under Tim’s Directorship, and we look forward to his continuing involvement with AIFL for many years to come. Having been involved with forensic linguistics at Aston University for the past eighteen years, I am thrilled to take on this new role and excited to continue this important work. Professor Grant said: “Being Director of AIFL has been the highlight and privilege of my career so far, and deciding to step back one of the biggest decisions. I’m delighted with the appointment of Krzysztof and Nicci as director and deputy director, and excited to see where they take AIFL next.”

Covering Russia? UMW's experts are featured in the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

West Sanctions Russian Aviation, But Moscow Decides to Keep Planes Flying Despite Risks When the U.S. and its allies slapped sanctions on Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, severing aviation links was at the top of the list. Direct flights vanished and Russian airlines lost access to spare parts for their foreign airplanes. In retaliation, Vladimir Putin’s regime impounded foreign aircraft and shut off the world’s largest air space to countries imposing sanctions. Not since the early 1980s—when the U.S. suspended routes to the USSR over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, repression in Poland and downing of a Korean Air Lines plane—have aviation ties between the two countries dipped so low. Aviation sanctions today are having an impact but come with a major risk. If the fatal crash of a jetliner killing hundreds is linked to the lack of spare parts, Putin will blame sanctions and the West. The stakes are high as Russia seeks to use any issue from cluster bombs to soccer to widen cracks in Western unity over Ukraine. To get ahead of this, U.S. policymakers and their allies need to better explain the effects of sanctions, why they’re worth the risk and why the Russian state, not the West, is ultimately responsible for any fatal crash. U.S. government assessments place Russian aviation among sectors negatively impacted by sanctions. A closer look shows widening success in degrading this increasingly weak link in Russia’s political economy. By late 2021, foreign aircraft comprised 70% of Russia’s fleet of 801 passenger airplanes, which included 298 Airbuses, 236 Boeings, and 23 other foreign aircraft such as Embraers. In addition, 95% of Russian airline flights were on foreign-made aircraft. Consequently, sanctions aimed at depriving spare parts for foreign airplanes have caused many disruptions such as fare increases to cover higher costs of repairs. Some of Russia’s 53 airlines have periodically suspended or stopped flying some of their foreign planes. Reports of Russian airlines’ cannibalization of foreign aircraft similarly underscore a dire situation. Less well known is how sanctions hurt Russian manufacturing since Western technology is critical to aircraft such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which uses a French-Russian engine (though Russians are working on a substitution). Production of the Yakovlev design bureau’s MC-21 passenger airplane faces significant delays due to sanctions that force substitution of its Western-made parts. Sanctions even helped push Russia out of a joint venture with China to produce the CR929 widebody aircraft. While China is happy to help Russia thwart sanctions, this plane needs Western systems that sanctions complicate. In response, Russia has adapted to and thwarted some aviation sanctions, which I predicted would happen because Putin’s regime is reproducing a state-centered aviation sector rooted in the Soviet past. The war has accelerated the state’s growing control over this vital economic sector, which began before Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Examples include the state’s 51% ownership of Aeroflot since 1994, the merger of two smaller, state-run airlines in 2003 and the consolidation of aircraft manufacturing in the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), which was created in 2006. More recently, the Russian state has helped the country’s airlines weather sanctions by facilitating the illegal confiscation of foreign aircraft. Russian airlines have also proven resourceful by purchasing spare parts through brokers in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Better known for supplying Russia with drones, Iran also agreed to provide Russian airlines with spare parts and has been fixing an Aeroflot Airbus for months. Many foreign airlines continue to fly to Russia, and Putin’s regime rewards friendly countries with overflight rights. But the longer sanctions remain, the harder it’s getting for Russia. To regain profitable foreign routes, its airlines are receiving government assistance to legitimately purchase the Western aircraft they illegally seized, although recent holdups in allocating such funds are causing doubts. In a throwback to the Soviet era, Putin’s regime boasts that Russia doesn’t need the West’s airplanes anyway since its one manufacturer, the UAC, will pick up the slack. Such import substitution is unlikely to succeed, as multiple delays suggest. More likely, Russia’s aviation sector will grow more reliant on the state, if not actually part of it like the UAC. This will make Russian aviation less efficient, less innovative and more expensive. Iranian airlines, which have long suffered under foreign sanctions despite some success circumventing them, present their Russian counterparts with a grim vision of the future such as being shut out of lucrative air travel markets and falling behind in emerging aviation technology. How does this shape safety in Russia’s skies? The short answer is that it’s not as bad as headlines suggest and the impact of sanctions is ambiguous at best. Click bait stories paint a dire picture but often conflate commercial, military and general aviation into alarming numbers that do not accurately capture what ordinary passengers face. Some accounts, such as one claiming 120 accidents occurred in 2023, provide few details or sources. Annual safety reports from Russia’s Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) allow for comparison over time but often obscure Russia’s situation by combining data from each post-Soviet state it monitors. Its 2019 report is mysteriously missing and its decision not to investigate the fatal crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Embraer Legacy 600 plane suggests meddling from above. That said, the IAC source base is the most systematic we have. Keeping in mind the potential for the politicization of its conclusions, what does a critical reading of its data alongside other sources suggest? First, fatal crashes in commercial and general aviation actually decreased in Russia from 18 in 2021 to 13 in 2022, and related deaths decreased from 70 to 24. Data for the first half of 2023 points in the same direction, with six fatal crashes and nine deaths. This trend was likely helped by the 14% decline in traffic after February 2022. While so many fatal crashes sound substantial, all but three in 2021 and all but one in 2022 involved small aircraft under 5,700 kilograms, not the jetliners we associate with most commercial flying. Absolute figures on crashes and deaths capture headlines but they don’t say much about safety without considering their relation to passengers flown or departures. According to the IAC, the rate of aviation accidents and the rate of fatal crashes per one million departures both increased from 2020 to 2021 but then decreased in 2022. The IAC does not single out Russia from other post-Soviet states for this metric. But since Russia has the largest aviation sector among those countries, these data suggest that its aviation safety has not dramatically worsened since early 2022. Indeed, even critics who argue that Russian airlines are less safe partly because of sanctions conclude that “2022 and 2023 were also good years for airline safety [in Russia] compared to 2021.” Comparisons with the U.S. similarly suggest that passenger aviation is not as disastrous as some headlines suggest. The IAC data indicates that Russia and other post-Soviet states are usually but not always behind the U.S. in passenger aviation safety. In 2018, for example, IAC countries reported a 0.8 rate of fatal crashes per 1 million departures of passenger aircraft above 5,700 kilograms. Comparable statistics from the National Transportation Safety Board showed a 0.11 rate for that year for scheduled U.S. carrier flights. In 2019, the rates were 2.3 (IAC) and 0.10 (U.S.), but in 2020, both IAC countries and the U.S. enjoyed a 0.0 rate of fatal crashes. The following year, however, IAC countries reported a 1.9 rate of fatal crashes, whereas the NTSB reported a 0.0 rate.1 Against this background of Russian airline safety, let’s now turn to the impact of sanctions. While some commentators emphasize that no fatal crashes have been tied to sanctions, others claim they make Russian airlines unsafe and that it’s only a matter of time before such a fatal crash happens. Some even argue that life-threatening dangers prove aviation sanctions are effective and could help turn Russians against Putin. To reassure the public, Russian aviation officials insist the country’s airlines are safe despite sanctions, as do Russian business media and aviation journalists. This plays to Putin’s claims to legitimacy based in part on withstanding anything the West throws at him. In sharp contrast, Ukrainian media tells Russians their airlines are a disaster waiting to happen precisely because of sanctions. Independent Russian journalists banished by Putin concur, raising alarms about efforts to cover up the impact of sanctions and about the many ways Russian airlines cut corners on safety. In short, an information war exists around the morbid question of whether a Russian jetliner will crash and the role sanctions could play. Fears of a fatal crash were validated by the emergency landing of a Ural Airlines A320 in September, apparently caused by malfunctioning hydraulics tied to sanctions. But a closer examination by a Russian aviation journalist suggests the pilots played a more important role by pressing on to an airport for which there wasn’t enough fuel. Recent Russian state assessments of aviation safety similarly point to pilot error and poor training as the chief causes of aviation incidents. More generally, airplane disasters are usually caused by a convergence of factors—bad weather, a manageable mechanical failure and pilot error—not just one problem. In public discussions, however, pinpointing sanctions’ role tracks more with the politics of the war than technical expertise. At the end of the day, Russian airlines and aviation authorities are solely responsible for putting planes in the sky and Russians’ lives at risk. They continue to claim that everything is fine. But if a fatal crash of a Boeing or Airbus flown by a Russian airline kills hundreds, I predict this narrative will quickly change. Putin will blame the West as he does for everything else affecting his legitimacy, from Russia’s economic problems and his diplomatic failures to protests against his regime and even the war he started in Ukraine. Such a scenario will be a serious test for policymakers who argue that punishing Russia with sanctions is still worth it. To prepare for this, they need to take a page from the Biden administration’s release of intelligence on Russia’s military buildup before the full-scale invasion: publicize as much intelligence as possible on sanctions and their impact, as well as Russia’s aviation sector and what it does or doesn’t do to ensure safety. As Putin’s regime falls back on Soviet-era secrecy about airline safety, sharing such intelligence will be a powerful tool. This will also contribute to broader Western efforts at combatting Russia’s better known disinformation campaigns such as those denying its human rights abuses in Ukraine.

Expert Perspective: UMW's Steven E. Harris lends his opinion to The Russia File

The following piece was written by Steven E. Harris published  by the Wilson Center in April 2024 Sanctions Are Spoiling Russia’s Plans to Make Its Own Airplanes Putin’s regime is feeling confident these days. Advances on the battlefield in Ukraine, expansions in armaments production, and the dithering of Republicans in the U.S. Congress show the war has turned in Russia’s favor. A well-orchestrated presidential election and some real public support buoy the regime. Political opponents are either dead, in prison, or in exile. Putin’s regime has also declared victory in blunting Western sanctions and now plans to permanently thwart them with programs of import substitution. Nowhere is this better seen than in aviation, where the state proclaims it will produce over a thousand new airplanes to replace the foreign aircraft its airlines have long flown. But this bold vision for aviation autarky has little chance of succeeding. Russia’s Short-Term Success in Blunting Aviation Sanctions Thus far, Putin’s regime has weathered aviation sanctions through a two-pronged strategy. First, Russian airlines illegally kept about 400 foreign airplanes—primarily Airbuses and Boeings—owned by foreign leasing companies. Second, the state bankrolled settlement claims in order to purchase some of these airplanes so that airlines could fly them abroad without risk of repossession and reduce their foreign debt. To date, approximately 170 foreign airplanes have been legally acquired in this fashion, and the Ministry of Transportation recently asked for more cash to continue settling claims on the remaining 230 foreign planes. The next question is how long Russian airlines, from the state-owned flag carrier Aeroflot to private companies such as S7 and Ural Air Lines, can continue flying their foreign planes. As I wrote in late October, safety has been degraded far less than predicted. But in the absence of spare parts, software updates, and thorough maintenance by foreign providers, Russian airlines have about two years before they will have to ground Boeings and Airbuses for major repairs performed using third-party spare parts. Anticipating the eventual retirement of foreign planes, Putin’s regime has embarked on a massive program to make all-Russian airplanes. This program promises independence from Western technology and leasing companies but reveals the success of sanctions and fundamental weaknesses in state capacity. The 2030 Aviation Manufacturing Plan Announced in June 2022, the program calls for the state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec to manufacture 1,036 airplanes with only Russian parts by 2030. In January 2024, the state allocated 283 billion rubles (U.S. $3.1 billion) to help finance the production of 609 airplanes and prioritize medium-haul aircraft in the overall manufacturing plan. Before sanctions, Russian manufacturers produced a small number of narrow body, medium-haul airplanes such as the MC-21 and the Superjet-100 (SSJ-100) with Western components. Twelve SSJ-100s were manufactured in 2021 and ten the following year. Among the aircraft slated to replace Boeings and Airbuses, the plan called for production in 2023 of three medium-haul Tupolev-214 (Tu-214) airplanes and two Superjet-NEW planes (Superjet-100s with all-Russian parts). None of these were built. In fact, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) failed to manufacture a single passenger airplane in 2023. More recently, the UAC conceded further delays of up to two years for rollout of the MC-21, SSJ-NEW, and Tu-214, as well as of smaller, short-haul aircraft such as the Ilyushin-114 (Il-114) and the “Baikal.” The transition to total import substitution is proving difficult, making it impossible to fulfill early targets of the manufacturing plan. By withdrawing access to Western technology critical for manufacturing, sanctions have successfully shut down production. Russian manufacturers will produce at best inferior aircraft that fly shorter routes using more fuel. At its current rate, the UAC is unlikely to manufacture more than a dozen or so showcase narrow body airplanes before 2030. The manufacturer may have better luck producing simpler planes, such as the Baikal, but the state’s injection of 283 billion rubles doesn’t target its production or that of two other short-haul airplanes. Since the UAC will likely not meet the plan’s annual targets any time soon, Russia’s airlines will have to make do with their aging foreign airplanes and acquire spare parts from third parties. Putin admitted as much at his call-in event in December 2023, during which he praised the import-substitution plan but added that the government would continue to purchase illegally held foreign planes. What Will Russia’s Aviation Manufacturing Plan Actually Produce? Rather than produce new aircraft, the immediate purpose of the state’s manufacturing plan is political theater. The infusion of 283 billion rubles was meant to show the public, before the presidential elections, that Putin’s regime is serious about securing commercial aviation and to generate a sense of normalcy in the midst of war. In the long run, the manufacturing plan is more likely to produce further distortions in Russia’s political economy. These include corruption, secrecy, technologically backward aircraft, and even more state control over commercial aviation. The 283 billion rubles will help Rostec keep state-run subsidiaries such as the United Engine Corporation operating with soft budget constraints and favorable contracts that now lack any competition from Western firms. Executives will siphon off their share of the funds, while Putin’s regime will turn a blind eye as long as everyone remains loyal. If the manufacturing plan continues to falter, state-owned manufacturers will have more incentive to keep their failures secret. In 2023, for example, the Ural Civil Aviation Factory kept hidden cost overruns for the Baikal. When news of a 48 percent increase was finally publicized, Putin’s point man for the Far East region, Yuri Trutnev, was incensed and proclaimed, “Our people are like that: they don’t like to share information.” For now, Putin’s regime allows the Russian business media to report fairly openly about the country’s aviation industry on issues such as spare parts and safety, state subsidies, and shortfalls in production. But if commercial flying becomes more precarious and the manufacturing plan remains unfulfilled, the government will likely limit what the public knows about its airlines and long-term plans to maintain them. As the economic historian Mark Harrison shows in his recent book, Secret Leviathan, secrecy in the Soviet era significantly degraded state capacity in many areas, including production. Post-Soviet autocrats face a similar “secrecy/capacity tradeoff,” while newer techniques of disinformation further erode capacity. In attempting to revive the Soviet Union’s autarkic aviation industry, Putin’s regime will find it hard to avoid similar reductions in capacity. Insofar as Russia’s commercial aviation industry is concerned, the lesson for the West is that it pays to play the long game. Russia has effective tools for blunting sanctions in the short run, but in the long run it faces structural obstacles and the absence of Western technology, both of which will degrade this economic sector. The main question remains whether the United States and its allies can keep up the pressure by enforcing sanctions.

Florida Tech, Kennedy Space Center to Study Waste Treatment in Space

Associate professor of chemical engineering Toufiq Reza has spent years researching sustainable waste conversion techniques on Earth. When Florida Tech offered him a sabbatical, he took the chance to learn what that conversion process looks like in outer space while further strengthening the university’s already deep ties to NASA. In Fall 2023, Reza became the first professor to leverage school funding to spend a semester at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center. He worked with Annie Meier, who leads a team developing ways to convert astronaut-generated trash into fuel during missions, known as in-situ resource utilization (ISRU). “I wanted to do something different that I haven’t done. I have been doing research in my field; I know who the players are,” Reza said.” I could have easily gone to a research lab at another university and continued my research. But I wanted to learn something new.” His sabbatical prompted a new partnership between NASA Kennedy and Florida Tech. This summer, they signed an annex to their existing Space Act Agreement which will allow Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the university to conduct joint research regarding logistical waste treatment and ISRU. “At NASA, we want researchers who are doing something that could help us, that could be synergistic, and to not reinvent the wheel,” said Jose Nuñez, university partnerships and small sat capabilities manager at NASA Kennedy. “The goal is to find professors who can benefit the agency in an area that needs more research.” As part of the agreement, KSC will share raw materials, waste simulant samples and information such as gas composition data with Florida Tech. In return, the university will analyze and share findings, such as what useful products can be taken from trash-to-gas waste for use as plant nutrients, and evaluate value-added applications. “I will encourage students to work on some of their technologies, test them in our lab and vice versa. This is a massive thing,” Reza said. “We can learn from each other to help each other.” Already, Reza’s students have visited Meier’s lab, and Meier and her KSC team came to Florida Tech to present her research and visit the university’s research facilities. Meier’s goals are similar to Reza’s: Both researchers want to find sustainable ways to convert trash and waste into energy, materials and chemicals. However, the methods aren’t completely transferrable between the two different environments of Earth and space. On Earth, Reza explained, waste can be burned or stored in a landfill. Neither of those options are viable in space. “You cannot dig up the moon soil and start burying. There is no oxygen or air to actually burn it…there is no water,” Reza explained. Currently, astronaut waste, such as food packaging, clothing, hygiene items and uneaten food, is launched back towards Earth and incinerates on the way there. However, Meier is working to advance waste mitigation technology, which Reza got to see up close. One of her projects, the Orbital Syngas/Commodity Augmentation Reactor (OSCAR), mixes oxygen, heat and trash in a reactor, which burns the trash and collects the gas it creates. Over the course of the semester, Reza assisted in KSC’s Applied Chemistry Lab, where Meier’s research took place. He offered both expertise and extra hands, from helping measure samples to reading through literature. He also took note of innovative technology for potential new research ideas, such as potentially developing a way of protecting metal coatings in space using the tools he learned. Meier’s waste conversion technology is built for a space environment, but Reza said it is unlikely that her complete systems could be used for waste conversion on Earth. Just as water and oxygen are limited resources in space but are plentiful on Earth, vacuums are plentiful resources in space but are expensive to create back home. However, that doesn’t stop the researchers from seeking inspiration through the new partnership. “We can learn from them and then take a part of their technology and integrate it with ours to make our technology more sustainable and vice versa,” Reza said. “They can improve their technology by utilizing part of our technology as well. As Meier said, “I wanted to learn on the terrestrial side how we can infuse some of our technology, and he wanted to learn from us to grow into the space sector, so it was a really cool match.”