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Ask the expert: 2024 economic outlook
Although the economy has improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has been a challenge for many Americans throughout 2023 and the economy remains a top issue ahead of the 2024 election. Experts are already making predictions about interest rates, inflation and the market for next year. Antonio Doblas Madrid is an associate professor in the Department of Economics in Michigan State University’s College of Social Science. He reflects on the economy this past year and answers questions about what you can anticipate about the economy in 2024. What are a few of the most memorable economic events of 2023? The economy in 2023 reminds me of Rocky Balboa, the boxer with a strong chin from the Rocky films who, despite getting hit over and over, keeps moving forward. A year ago, the consensus prediction among investors and professional forecasters was slower growth and higher unemployment. Inflation was still above 6%, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to one of the highest rates in 40 years, and the stock market ended 2022 in the red. Many observers said a ‘soft landing’ was a pipe dream and a recession inevitable. The year 2023 brought its own set of challenges. To name a few, a debt ceiling standoff started in January and continued until May, bringing the government dizzyingly close to default and causing a ratings downgrade. In March, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank started a crisis that, had it not been contained by a historic expansion of deposit guarantees, would have spread through the system and taken down the economy. A war broke out in Gaza. A large-scale auto workers strike temporarily shut down large parts of the sector. And the economy of China, a major trading partner, decelerated. Given all this, it is remarkable how good the numbers look right now. Inflation has steadily fallen to around 3% and is now within striking distance of the 2% target. The most recent gross domestic product, or GDP, report shows a robust 3% year-on-year growth rate, the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%, and the stock market has made a roaring comeback. The numbers look stronger than those of other major advanced economies, such as the eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan or Canada. However, it is too early for a victory parade. The fight against inflation is not over, monetary policy has long and variable lags and, even in a strong economy, many people are struggling. But, thus far, it is hard to imagine a softer landing than 2023. What’s expected to happen with the economy in 2024? With the usual caveat that even the best predictions have a margin of error, professional forecasters see the economy still growing in 2024, albeit more slowly. The numbers hover around 1.5% for real GDP growth and 4% for the rate of unemployment. This paints a picture of moderate growth, and a labor market that, while no longer crushing records, is still within the range of what can be called full employment. What’s predicted to happen with inflation? Forecasters and market-based measures of expectations both predict that inflation is likely to continue falling gradually in 2024, to about 2.5%. Thus, the inflation shock that hit the economy is expected to continue fading, although it may take some time to go that last mile from 3% to 2%. The Fed also appears to be quite optimistic on inflation, given its latest forward guidance. What will happen with interest rates in the new year? The Fed expects inflation to fall quickly, so quickly, in fact, that it has started to reverse the hawkish policy of the last two years in its forward guidance. This means that, although the Fed has not lowered interest rates yet, it has started talking about the possibility of rate cuts — three of them — in 2024. With the economy still at full employment, this clearly means that the Fed is expecting inflation to continue to fall. How could the presidential election affect the economy? There is a popular belief that election uncertainty is detrimental to the economy, but we do not really see that in the GDP data. Growth rates in presidential election years are not lower than average. On average over the last few decades, there is a small negative effect on the stock market in election years, but it disappears in the 12 months following the election, regardless of which party is elected. What economic words of wisdom can you share for 2024? It seems to me that the perception of the economy is worse than the reality. So, I would recommend stepping away from the noise and looking at the data for some objective measures. As far as saving for retirement goes, I think mainstream financial advice is solid. So, listen to your financial advisor if you have one. If you don’t, that’s okay, it is not that hard. There are many free tools, like retirement calculators, to help you figure out how much to set aside monthly. Take advantage of employer-provided and tax incentives. Invest mostly in stocks when young, gradually switching to fixed income as you age. For equities, follow a passive strategy. Buy and hold index funds. Do not try to pick stocks or time the market. If you are at the fixed-income stage, you may want to open a high-interest CD to lock in a high rate before the Fed starts cutting rates again. Finally, set up your contributions automatically draw, stop thinking about money for a few months and invest instead in nonfinancial assets, like relationships and health. Looking to know more about the economic outlook for 2024 or do you want to connect with Antonio Doblas Madrid? To schedule an interview - simply contact Jack Harrison, Public Relations Coordinator today.
MSU Law expert weighs in on Roe v. Wade draft opinion/leak
EAST LANSING, Mich. – Michigan State University Law Professor Mae Kuykendall answers questions about what it means if Roe v. Wade is overturned and the leaked draft opinion. She recently co-authored an essay, Uprooting Roe, that was published in the Houston Law Review. What will it mean if Roe v Wade is overturned? The implication for American politics and for women is seismic. We are in uncharted territory. The Supreme Court is now deeply radical and reactionary, in the basic sense of that term. It’s (Roe v Wade’s) legitimacy is at risk, and that is putting it mildly. What are the short- and long-term impacts? Again, this is uncharted territory. States have passed abortion bans with no exception for rape or incest. Childbirth has a mortality rate associated with it and, if done in a hospital, is extremely expensive. This is a form of what is called in other contexts an “unfunded mandate.” It also has a significantly worse impact on Black women, who die in childbirth at a disproportionate rate. The moment the Supreme Court issues its holding (with its “mandate”), draconian state laws will come into effect. Women will die. One does not yet know what women will do to organize and make access to reproductive health care available. Numerous recent articles have been written about ongoing secret meetings by Republicans in the U.S. Congress to pass a national ban if they gain sufficient control of Congress and the executive branch. The efforts by some states to become “safe havens for reproductive health care” are targets. The assumption that women can travel to liberal states is not something to count on. Further, there will be efforts to criminalize leaving a state for an abortion and returning. We are entering a new era in which all assumptions about women’s status as full citizens, and other assumptions about liberty of all to travel and to associate freely, are up for grabs. The Texas bounty law is a glimpse of a future with heavily restricted rights for pregnant women and their support network. What document was leaked? The document is a draft opinion by Justice Alito in the Mississippi case, Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization The odds are he is negotiating with other justices who voted with him about specific language. The opinion is quite radical as his starting point, but I do not know who in the radical Republican majority will want to soften it. Does this assure that Roe v Wade will be overturned? It has been clear since the Republican Party began putting justices on the Supreme Court pursuant to an “overrule Roe” litmus test that Roe v Wade was going to be overruled. With the three they gained by refusing to give hearings to Merrick Garland and then rushing Amy Coney Barrett through at the last minute, the end was assured. How could such a document be leaked from SCOTUS? The draft opinion would be in general circulation within the Supreme Court. The possibilities are numerous. I assume someone wanted Alito and friends to see the reaction before the deed was final. What is the cornerstone of Roe v Wade? A basic response would be the concept of individual rights and the requirement that state power not intrude deeply into an individual’s life without a strong “compelling” interest. Raw state power is disapproved by most of the American people. The Supreme Court, on all sides of the spectrum from liberal to conservative, long cited the need to restrain the raw exercise of individual state power. The Roe v Wade case was the first time state laws to ban abortion faced a test of fit with the core idea of liberty under the Constitution. The Supreme Court, with an open mind, studied the matter and found such bans unsustainable within a framework of protection for individuals from an unjustified exercise of raw state power. Without Roe v Wade, abortion bans would be subject to what is called “rational basis” review. That means anything a person could imagine as a rational reason for a law means the law passes Court review. What’s next? The Supreme Court is involved in internal back and forth about the opinion. When justices decide they like the opinion as it is written, they write the author: “Join me.” The chief justice of the United States just issued a statement that the opinion is not final. That is obvious. But Alito is trying to gather support for the most confrontational, radical opinion he can write. We shall see. After the opinion is announced, and even now, we face massive unpredictable political turbulence. When will the final decision on Roe v Wade be made? By the end of Supreme Court term for this year. https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/procedures.aspx For media inquiries: Contact: Kim Ward, University Communications: (517) 432-0117, kward@msu.edu;
2024 presidential and Michigan state elections: MSU experts can comment
MSU experts can discuss national political issues to the Supreme Court and constitutional issues to Michigan's state politics and races The 2024 presidential election is in full swing. As President Joe Biden is set to cruise to the Democratic nomination and former President Donald Trump is likely poised to receive the Republican nomination, 2024 is setting up to be a rematch of 2020. Michigan’s primary is now earlier on the calendar, Feb. 27, with the Republicans holding a caucus to award their remaining delegates on March 2. Despite being a presidential election year, Michigan has important statewide elections. An open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, could tip the balance of power in the Senate, potentially deciding which party holds the majority. Michigan’s seventh and eight congressional races have incumbents leaving office, making those set to be some of the most nationally watched and funded races nationally. The state House currently has an exact bipartisan split, setting up races with very high stakes. Michigan State University experts are available to comment on many issues of the presidential election including: political parties and their evolution, campaign strategy and polling, Trump’s legal troubles and the U.S. Supreme Court, political diversity and messaging and local elections and voting. Additionally, several of these experts can comment on Michigan’s federal and state elections. General presidential and Michigan election issues Corwin Smidt is an associate professor of American politics and research methods in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. He can comment on national elections and polling for the presidential election as well as statewide elections. Contact: smidtc@msu.edu "Michigan continues to trend toward being a battleground state, but right now it looks like a battle of attrition. Donald Trump's poll numbers really haven't improved as much since 2021 as Joe Biden's have declined, but Governor Whitmer's popularity remains high. The state Republican party continues to have fights over its management and will have a contested and possibly divisive Senate primary. Despite this, Republicans have a chance to pick up seats in the US House and state legislature because of Democratic retirements and ongoing redistricting changes." Matt Grossmann is the director of MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and a professor of political science. He is an expert on a broad range of topics surrounding the 2024 election, including political parties ,campaigns and elections. He also oversees survey research, candidate development and legislative training at MSU. Additionally, he can discuss Michigan’s primary and elections. Contact: grossm63@msu.edu “The presidential nomination process evolved out of reforms to the delegate selection process for those conventions, which now means delegates are overwhelmingly selected based on presidential primary results. From the voters’ perspective, it often looks like any other election where you select your preferred candidate. But the parties still have power to coordinate their rules and selection procedures. Michigan has an opportunity to set the terms for future elections, showing that it can become engaged, with diverse interests, and earn the right to vote early in the process in 2028. Since Michigan does not have party registration, voters will be able to participate in the primary of their choice, which has provided an incentive for individuals to vote in the contest that presents the most uncertainty.” Read more from Grossmann on MSUToday. Dante Chinni is a research specialist in MSU’s School of Journalism and is the director of the American Communities Project in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences. He can discuss polling and changes in the parties over time, as well as the voting patterns among groups in specific places. He can also comment on various Michigan political issues. Contact: chinni@msu.edu “In Michigan, and in other states, the 2024 election will be determined by the margin of victory in different kinds of places. Can the Democrats get what they need out of the big city and college town communities, like Wayne, Ingham and Washtenaw counties? Can the Republicans get the numbers they need out of blue-collar middle suburbs, such as Macomb? The turnout and margins in those kinds of places, and others, will determine who wins in November.” Constitutional issues and the Supreme Court Jordan Cash is an assistant professor of political theory and constitutional democracy in James Madison College. He can comment on general requests about the presidency and national elections as well as issues surrounding the Supreme Court. Contact: cashjor1@msu.edu “The 2024 election is already shaping up to be one of the most unusual elections in American history, but one of the most unique aspects is the role that the judiciary is likely to play in the process. With former president and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump facing indictments at both the state and federal levels, the election season is as likely to be punctuated with legal news and updates as it is with campaign speeches and negative advertising. Moreover, the Supreme Court will be critical as it has heard or will likely be hearing cases surrounding whether states can disqualify Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment and whether he has absolute immunity from when he was president. When we also consider that President Joe Biden is facing his own investigations from House Republicans, the election seems poised to not only raise the political stakes but also considerable constitutional and legal questions.” Read more from Cash about presidential elections on MSUToday. Brian Kalt is a professor of law and the Harold Norris Faculty Scholar in the College of Law. He can comment on 20th Amendment issues, the electoral college and presidential prosecution and immunities. Contact: kalt@law.msu.edu “A lot of constitutional law questions that seemed purely theoretical are now front and center in our election campaign. Hopefully, the Supreme Court will move quickly and provide some clarity and certainty on these issues so that when November rolls around, voters can make a fully informed choice.” Ryan Black is a professor of American politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science, and a faculty affiliate in the College of Law. His expertise includes public opinion and the Supreme Court, and he can speak to appointments and vacancies. Contact: rcblack@msu.edu “Results of the 2024 election have the potential to profoundly shift the center of gravity in the politics of appointments to the federal judiciary, which includes, most importantly, the Supreme Court. There is no doubt that a president's most enduring legacy is who they put on the High Court, but confirmation politics today make the partisan makeup of the Senate a prominent roadblock in a president’s path to success.” Erica Frantz is an associate professor of comparative politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. She is a specialist on issues and themes relating to authoritarianism. Contact: frantzer@msu.edu “Today’s democracies typically fall apart at the hands of their elected leaders, such that elections are critical focal points for understanding democratic trajectories. Importantly, research shows that where leaders come to power backed by personalist parties – or parties that are synonymous with the leader’s persona – the risk of democratic erosion increases substantially. For the U.S., this implies that the more the Republican Party becomes indistinguishable from Trump, the more American democracy is vulnerable to collapse from within should Trump return to the presidency.” Political messaging and diversity Dustin Carnahan is an associate professor in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences. His work focuses on how exposure to political information influences people’s attitudes, beliefs and decisions. His recent research focuses on how people come to encounter and believe misinformation and the effectiveness of messages designed to correct misinformed beliefs. Contact: carnaha9@msu.edu “While research suggests that political misinformation does not have a profound impact on voters’ decisions, the proliferation of misinformation can have more subtle effects on voters and elections – such as fostering toxic discourse around issues and candidates, promoting political polarization and distracting from more substantive matters. Concerns around misinformation are likely to be of great interest during the upcoming election cycle as advances in AI technology pose significant challenges to voters’ ability to identify what is real and what is fake.” Eric Juenke is an associate professor of American politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. He can comment on issues relating to minority candidates, specifically the candidacy and election of minority candidates. Additionally, he teaches in the Chicano/Latino Studies program. Contact: juenke@msu.edu “While we do seem to have a rematch at the top of the ticket, with a vice president who is a woman of color and another vice president who has yet to be announced but could also be a woman candidate, we will be seeing a continued diverse candidate pool this cycle, I expect. It’s still early yet in the congressional races, but there should be a number of high-profile races in the country and in Michigan that should highlight a more diverse candidate pool. While the parties still have a long, long way to go in recruiting and supporting women and racial and ethnic minority candidates to run for office, the trajectory is positive.” Daniel Bergan is an associate professor and the director of master’s studies in the College of Communication Arts and Sciences, who also has an appointment in James Madison College. His research focuses on constituent communications with policymakers. Contact: bergan@msu.edu “When communicating with a policymaker, especially one with whom you disagree, you want to prevent them from discounting your opinion. One way to do this is by citing quality evidence to support your position. When contacting a policymaker about an issue, be aware that they may discount your opinion if they disagree. But note also that carefully crafted communications can convey your position without being written off — and could improve how accurately the policymaker understands public attitudes about public policies.” Read more from Bergan on MSUToday. Importance of local elections Sarah Reckhow is a professor of American politics in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. She can comment on topics related to education policy in the presidential election. She is a specialist on local elections and school board elections. Contact: reckhow@msu.edu “Partisan polarization is having a growing impact on education politics, and we can see growing disagreement between Democrats and Republicans on key issues such as school choice and curriculum. This polarization is playing a role in elections, even nonpartisan school board elections, and it will be an important trend to watch in 2024.” Erin Kramer is the community liaison coordinator for MSU Community and Student Relations. She also advises MSUVote to support students and the local community voting. She can comment on efforts to promote voting efforts and resources that can be offered by universities and municipalities. Contact: kramere6@msu.edu “Michigan State University is home to MSUvote, an Initiative that strives to support students in their civic engagement. Student participation in voting is both a right and a responsibility. MSUvote is committed to getting out the vote,getting out the vote, reducing barriers to registration, and supporting all educational initiatives. Over the years, Michigan State has been fortunate to work with the East Lansing, Lansing, Meridian Township, and Bath Clerks to support our students in exercising their right to vote. Participation is foundational to the function of democracy, and we are committed to supporting students in that activity. MSUvote has hosted registration rallies, absentee parties, and worked to facilitate awareness of elections through multiple campus channels over the years to support participation and education. This year, the MSU STEM Building will be home to one of East Lansing’s Early Voting Centers, it will be operating Saturday Feb. 17 through Sunday Feb. 25.” Top issues for voters David Ortega is an associate professor in the Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics in the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, where he is also a faculty laureate. He can comment on consumer, producer and agribusiness decisions that affect the agricultural and food sectors, including the cost of food, which remains a concern for many Americans. Contact: dlortega@msu.edu “Persistent high food prices are a constant reminder of the economic difficulties facing voters. Although overall inflation has cooled and grocery price increases have moderated, food costs 25% more today than it did four years ago. And given the frequent nature of grocery shopping, food costs have a disproportionate impact on how voters perceive inflation.” Robert Brathwaite is the associate dean for research and an associate professor with a specialization in international relations in James Madison College. He can comment on foreign conflict and relations, including how it will impact U.S. policy and the presidential election. Contact: brathwa1@msu.edu “As the war between Russia and Ukraine approaches it two-year mark, the political and economic ramifications of this conflict are becoming more profound. Some political dynamics to watch this year associated with this conflict include changes in NATO’s military posture, political unity of the European Union, deepening Sino-Russian strategic cooperation, and the 2024 US presidential election. This conflict will also impact important global economic trends this year that include global energy supplies, food security, technology export controls, and the role of the US dollar in the global economy. More importantly, this ongoing conflict is a catalyst to evolving changes in the global security architecture with costs and consequences that are unknown.” Jason Miller is the interim chairperson of them Department of Supply Chain Management and the Eli Broad Professor in Supply Chain Management in the Broad College of Business. He can comment on various supply chain issues such as the impact of Suez Canal diversions on disruptions and inflation as well as the impact of tariffs on U.S. firms and consumers, as foreign conflict and trade are top of mind this presidential election. Contact: mill2831@broad.msu.edu “Business leader across industries ranging from manufacturing and mining to retailing are closely watching the 2024 election cycle, as the outcome could substantially shape the business landscape in the form of tariffs, foreign policy toward China and Russia, and the extent of military escalation in the Mideast. All of these policies affect strategic, long-term decisions regarding global sourcing, market entry strategies, and capacity and demand planning.” Antonio Doblas Madrid is an associate professor in the Department of Economics in the College of Social Science. He can comment on the economy and the effect of inflation, which remains a top issue for voters this year. Contact: doblasma@msu.edu “The economy and inflation is an issue on the minds of many Americans.Forecasters and market-based measures of expectations both predict that inflation is likely to continue falling gradually in 2024, to about 2.5%. Thus, the inflation shock that hit the economy is expected to continue fading, although it may take some time to go that last mile from 3% to 2%. The Fed also appears to be quite optimistic on inflation, given its latest forward guidance.” Read more from Doblas Madrid on the economy and inflation on MSUToday.
Baylor Fashion Forecasting Expert: The Business and Power of Color
2023 Color of the Year Viva Magenta Every December for 20 years, the global color management company Pantone reveals its Color of the Year for the upcoming year. For 2023, Pantone has chosen a color that “vibrates with vim and vigor”: Viva Magenta. More than just a pretty color for fashion, Viva Magenta 18-1750 is the result of years of research into trends in technology, entertainment and fashion. But what does the Color of the Year mean to the average consumer? According to Baylor University fashion forecasting expert Lorynn R. Divita, Ph.D., retailers with this information can offer products that will resonate with their customers. “Color is the most important factor in whether someone is going consider a purchase,” Divita said. However, “Retailers have to get it right.” Pantone collaborated with diverse group of industry leaders such as Motorola, Lenovo, Spoonflower fabrics and Artechouse Studio to ensure they correctly identified emerging consumer tastes by making connections beyond the boundaries of fashion. “Fashion change happens because people demand novelty,” Divita said, “and retailers want to make people happy.” Using color forecasting is a low-risk way for retailers to provide that novelty. Unlike changes in skirt lengths or pant styles, color is a trend available to everyone. “You can choose how you do it. It is through a garment? Is it through an accessory? Color will translate to multiple categories. So, everybody can participate in a way that feels comfortable to them,” Divita said. Color Forecasting is typically a reliable way to predict trends, but it isn’t always sure thing. Consumers won’t purchase something they fundamentally don’t like. To be successful, color forecasters must be mindful of that. Divita points to the words of cultural reporter and author Virginia Postrel on the two criteria needed for a trend to takeoff: “Do I like that?” and “Am I like that?” If the answer to both questions is yes, the trend is more likely take off. If not, retailers will be stuck with warehouses full of unsold merchandise. Pantone began in 1963 as a color matching standard for the printing industry offering uniformity of color throughout the design and manufacturing process. The numbers behind each color are a recipe for creating an exact match. According to the Pantone website, “Pantone’s color language supports all color conscious industries; textiles, apparel, beauty, interiors, architectural and industrial design, encompassing over 10,000 color standards across multiple materials including printing, textiles, plastics, pigments, and coatings.” Using this industry knowledge, the company branched out into color forecasting in 1999 with its first color of the year, Cerulean. Today, the Pantone Color of the Year is an eagerly anticipated announcement for the fashion forward. Only time will tell if Viva Magenta will be embraced or become footnote in pop culture history. Until then, be on the lookout at your favorite stores for the next big thing. If you are looking for the correct Pantone Baylor colors, they are Baylor Green 3435 and University Gold 1235.
Tales of Christmas Past: Preserving Your Family History During the Holidays
Baylor’s Institute for Oral History shares seven simple best practices to get the conversation started (Credit: FG Trade Latin/Getty Images Collection E+) During past family Christmas gatherings, many of us remember when older relatives regaled everyone with tales about their fascinating life stories, firsthand experiences as an eyewitness to history or simply sharing how favorite family traditions started. So how do you preserve those precious family memories during the holidays? Baylor University oral historians Stephen Sloan and Adrienne Cain Darough have recorded and preserved the oral history memoirs of thousands of individuals through their work with Baylor’s renowned Institute for Oral History, home of the national Oral History Association. Together, the historians share seven simple best practices to help family members begin oral history conversations that enrich recollections of the past and capture your family memories. “The holiday season brings about the opportunity to spend time with family members, especially those you may not be able to see on a frequent basis,” Cain Darough said. “This presents the perfect opportunity to conduct oral histories to capture the stories and experiences of your family and loved ones, to learn more about them, the history of your family, traditions that have been passed down from generation to generation and more.” Seven best practices for preserving your family’s oral history 1. Ask first! Make sure your family member wants their story to be documented or recorded. That is the first – and most important – question to ask, said Adrienne Cain Darough, M.L.S., assistant director and senior lecturer with the Institute for Oral History. Ask first. “Many oral historians have run into the spot where someone says, ‘Oh, my grandpa would be great for that topic,’ and you get there and it's, ‘Grandpa does not want to talk to you.’ So first, make sure they want their story recorded,” she said. 2. Determine the type of recording equipment you want to use. Decide if you want to record your interview with an audio recorder or use a video recording device. It all depends on your needs and comfort level with the technology. For family members who are unable to travel this holiday season, you can include them by capturing their stories using a remote recording platform like Zoom, which became a vital tool for oral historians when COVID struck in 2020. Helpful resources from Baylor’s Institute for Oral History include: How to choose the right digital recorder Oral History at a Distance webinar on the dynamics of conducting remote oral history interviews Remote Interviewing Resources guide (Oral History Association) 3. Research your family member’s life and their timeline to help you formulate your questions. Recording a family member’s oral history is more than just putting down a recorder in front of them and saying, “Talk.” If you’re recording an oral history over Christmas with a family member, are there specific things that you want to know that are related to the holiday? For example, what was Christmas morning like for them as a child? How did your favorite family traditions start? What is their favorite holiday dish? (Maybe they could even share the recipe. “You can finally learn why Nana’s banana pudding doesn’t even have bananas in it,” Cain Darough said.) “Doing your research to try to form those questions will help you get around the reluctance to talk sometimes,” Cain Darough added. “The favorite thing that I love to hear is, ‘Oh, I don't have much to say,’ or ‘I'm not that important.’ And then you sit down with them, and you listen to their stories, and your mind is just blown by the things that they've seen and experienced.” 4. Start with the basics: “Where are you from?” When Baylor oral historians conduct an interview, they generally begin with some life history of the subject, providing important context for historians. “Ask questions early on that are easy for them to answer: a little bit of the backstory, a little bit of where they're from, where they grew up,” said Stephen Sloan, Ph.D., director of the Institute for Oral History, executive director of Oral History Association and professor of history at Baylor. “I want to understand the lens through which they experienced events, and the only way I can do that is, who was this? What was formative in their life growing up? Who spoke into who they were? What did they learn? Where did they go? What did they do? Those are the sorts of things that I would be exploring early in the interview.” One of the questions Cain Darough enjoys asking is, “What did you want to be when you grew up?” “You want to give them something that's very easy and comfortable to talk about,” Cain Darough said. “What was your favorite subject in school, just to see if that was something that continued on in their life. If there's a certain hobby or something that you know that they're affiliated with, when did you learn about that? Tell me more. What's your interest with this? And then they'll get to talking.” 5. Ask open-ended questions – without making any assumptions. With oral history, it is important that you don’t go into the interview with a specific agenda or try to lead anyone to a certain conclusion. “We can do this very subtly by assuming information, but you can't assume anything about their experience with the topic,’” Sloan said. “If we assume information, it could be very far from how they encountered whatever event that may have been. Allow them to relate the ways in which they lived these experiences.” 6. Listen closely. Listening is an important facet of gathering oral history. But historians say you are not only listening for what they're saying, you're also listening for what they're not saying. “Are there things that are being skipped around?” Cain Darough said. “For example, sometimes when you're talking to veterans about their combat experience, it may be the first time that they're reliving or retelling these stories. They need time, and you just have to be prepared for that.” 7. Be patient. It might take your subject some time to warm up to the conversation. “If you're talking to someone who is 80, 90 or even 100, that's a lot of memories that they have to go through, so patience is important,” Cain Darough said.
Tips for traversing the time between jobs
The gap between jobs is a time of not only financial woes but also an associated mental toll that can be just as difficult to manage. University of Delaware career expert Jill Gugino Panté offers tips for navigating the rough waters of unemployment. Gugino Panté, director of the Lerner Career Services Center at UD, has years of experience in HR and helps folks from ages 18 to 80 find jobs and level up their careers. She provided the following advice that journalists can pull for stories about careers and the job market: It's normal to feel hopeless and helpless. These are the two common words I constantly hear from job seekers. Searching for a job, especially when you don’t have a job, can be a black hole of nothing and everything. "Nothing" because you don’t hear back from applications you’ve submitted and the silence can diminish your confidence. And "everything" because of the range of emotions you feel on a daily basis. Stay busy. Staying busy is not just applying to jobs, but it’s keeping your brain, body and mental health positively active. You can only apply to so many jobs on your computer. After that, most people sit and wait. NEVER SIT AND WAIT in a job search! Even the smallest thing will provide a sense of accomplishment. Send out emails to arrange connection phone calls. Attend local networking events, volunteer and give back. Clean out your closet and donate clothes. Organize your search in a spreadsheet, add reminders to your calendar. Keep yourself moving and check off one thing on your list a day. Find support among peers. There are millions of groups out there on social media. Find a job seeking support group in your industry where you can get advice and even a pep talk if you need one. Friends and family are fine, but not everyone has this and sometimes friends and families don’t understand what you’re going through. Having multiple support groups can provide consistency. Put your job search on blast. I have so many stories of people finding a job because they posted on social media or struck up a conversation with a stranger in a store. Unless you have a specific reason for keeping your job search a secret, shout it out to the world! Data shows that it’s the people on the periphery of your network (meaning 2nd and 3rd connections) who have the most effect on your professional development. So reaching out on LinkedIn, talking to a stranger, attending a networking event you wouldn’t otherwise go to can have a significant impact on your job search. Members of the media interested in speaking with Gugino Panté can reach her directly – visit her profile and click the "contact button." Or, feel free to reach out to our media relations department.
Aston University establishes Design Factory Birmingham as a global innovation hub for Midlands
• Birmingham becomes the latest city to join a global network of design and digital consultancies • Based at Aston University, expertise in areas such as 3D printing will be shared to boost the local economy • It will include a space named after the late Dame Margaret Weston, former director of the Science Museum. Birmingham has become the latest city to join a global network of design and digital consultancies set up to solve real world challenges through effective problem-solving. Design Factory Birmingham will be based at Aston University, one of just two hubs in the UK outside of London. The city officially joined the Design Factory Global Network on Wednesday 14 February and as a result Aston University will open the doors to its state-of-the-art facilities to other organisations. Shared understanding and common ways of working enable Design Factories in the network to collaborate efficiently across cultures, time zones and organisational boundaries fostering radical innovations. Businesses, industry partners, entrepreneurs, staff and students will be able to collaborate on projects that will involve technologies such as 3D printers and design software. The University will be sharing its expertise in artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, data science and web, app and graphic design to boost the local economy. Currently there are 39 innovation hubs in 25 countries across five continents based in universities and research organisations. The Design Factory will include a space named after the late Dame Margaret Weston, former director of the Science Museum. Dame Margaret had studied electrical engineering at one of Aston University’s predecessor institutions and went on to be the first woman appointed to lead a national museum. She left a generous gift to Aston University in her will, which will be commemorated in the Birmingham Design Factory in honour of her engineering background. (l-r) Felipe Gárate, Professor Aleks Subic, Professor Stephen Garrett The Vice-Chancellor and Chief Executive of Aston University, Professor Aleks Subic said: “The Design Factory Birmingham is another key milestone in our ambition to be a leader in science, technology, and innovation, driving socio-economic transformation in our city and region. It is important to the Midlands because it will make a direct contribution to innovation led growth in partnership with industry and businesses. However, this is not only a local launch but also a global launch as Design Factory Birmingham is a global innovation hub, and an integral part of the Design Factory Global Network involving 39 innovation hubs around the world.” The head of the Design Factory Global Network Felipe Gárate from Aalto University in Helsinki, Finland attended the official launch in Birmingham. He said: “I am delighted to welcome Aston University as our latest member. “We are on a mission to create change in the world of learning and research through passion-based culture and effective problem-solving. “Shared understanding and common ways of working enable Design Factories in the network to collaborate efficiently across cultures, time zones and organisational boundaries fostering radical innovations.” The launch event was used to showcase design projects that are already running and companies attending were given the chance to meet placement students who could boost their existing expertise. Associate Pro-Vice-Chancellor and Deputy Head of the College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Professor Tony Clarke said “This unique space on campus will bring together multi-disciplinary teams of hands-on innovators, collaborative thinkers and creators. “We will be delivering a wide range of services including software application development, product design, creating protypes using a variety of technologies including laser and water cutting, digital and design training courses, and helping companies obtain innovation grants for projects.” As a member of the global network the Birmingham Design Factory at Aston University will participate in two global design challenges - one run by McDonalds and the other run by the Ford Motor Company. ENDS Notes to Editors There are 39 Design Factory hubs around the world https://dfgn.org/ In the UK there are three; London, Birmingham and Manchester. About Aston University For over a century, Aston University’s enduring purpose has been to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation, by enabling our students to succeed in work and life, and by supporting our communities to thrive economically, socially and culturally. Aston University’s history has been intertwined with the history of Birmingham, a remarkable city that once was the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Born out of the First Industrial Revolution, Aston University has a proud and distinct heritage dating back to our formation as the School of Metallurgy in 1875, the first UK College of Technology in 1951, gaining university status by Royal Charter in 1966, and becoming The Guardian University of the Year in 2020. Building on our outstanding past, we are now defining our place and role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk
Estimating Adults Living with Intellectual Disabilities in America - Our Experts Look at the Numbers
A new study conducted by faculty researchers at the Institute of Public and Preventive Health at Augusta University shows the prevalence of intellectual disability (ID) in adults. But looking at childhood survey data of those with ID, conclusions can be drawn on how many adults have intellectual disability. The study was conducted by Teal Benevides, PhD, assistant professor in the Institute of Public and Preventive Health at Augusta University, Biplab Datta, PhD, assistant professor in IPPH and the Department of Health Management, Economics and Policy, Jennifer Jaremski, research associate in IPPH, and Michael McKee, PhD, associate professor at the University of Michigan. The study estimates the number of adults living with ID is .95% or 9.5 per 1,000 adults between the ages of 21 and 41. “Intellectual disability is diagnosed in childhood,” said Benevides. “It needs to be diagnosed early. It’s not something that just happens in adulthood. So relying on the estimate that’s from childhood surveys is a good start. It’s just aging estimates up based off the current population of the U.S. So I do feel pretty confident that we can base future projections off in the absence of better epidemiological evaluations of prevalence.” She added it’s important to realize a lot of people with ID are now out of high school and age out of educational services to support them at the age of 21. They may fall through the cracks during the transition to adulthood and may not be receiving the services they need. “Many adults with ID are going to require services and support. They’re likely going to require housing support, employment support and many of them are food insecure,” Benevides said. “I think policymakers at both the state and federal level need to know about this because regardless of whether or not our policymakers support Medicaid expansion, many people with ID are also going to need adequate healthcare coverage because the vast majority of people with intellectual disability are not employed.” Not just that, many of those with ID are more likely to experience disparities in housing, employment, education, poverty and more. Biplab Datta and Teal Benevides In Georgia, Benevides said there is a waitlist of 7,000 people looking for Medicaid services for adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities, and there’s just not enough resources available to assist those with ID. Another concern is that people with ID have the same life span and those who may prove care, such as parents or guardians, don’t know what will happen to their older children with ID when they aren’t around or are unable to assist them. “What alarms me is we don’t have sufficient services and supports for adults. We just don’t have them,” she said. “When people ask for services, support and resources, there’s no place to point them to unless they are children.” Biplab Datta, PhD, is an assistant professor in Institute of Public and Preventive Health and in the Department of Population Health Sciences at Augusta University. Teal Benevides, PhD, OTR/L is an associate professor and the Director of Faculty Development, Institute of Public and Preventive Health Both experts are available to speak about this important research - simply click on either expert's icon to arrange an interview and time to talk today.
Countdown To the Big Game: Dr. Tyrha’s Top Five Super Bowl Commercials for the Past Five Years
Advertising executive and multicultural media expert Tyrha M. Lindsey-Warren, Ph.D., clinical assistant professor of marketing at Baylor University's Hankamer School of Business, , is a sought-after media commentator on the brands who win big during the game's commercial breaks. Commercials always are the most anticipated and talked-about aspect of the Super Bowl, but the expanding digital landscape requires advertisers to use more authentic and nuanced strategies to reach consumers. Advertising executive and multicultural media expert Tyrha M. Lindsey-Warren, Ph.D., clinical assistant professor of marketing at Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, is a sought-after media commentator on the brands who win big during the game’s commercial breaks. How do companies break through the noise and make a lasting impression on viewers? Lindsey-Warren – or Dr. Tyrha, as she is known – says the key is empowered storytelling. As a consumer behavior scholar, Dr. Lindsey-Warren’s research is rooted in narrative transportation theory – in other words, storytelling – that exudes the emotion of empowerment and its impact on consumer attitudes, behaviors, purchase intention and message recall. “There is a growing space for cleverly crafted and positive storytelling that can break through the clutter and competition and get the attention of Millennials, Gen Z and Alpha generations in an authentic and meaningful manner,” Lindsey-Warren said. At the top of every year, Dr. Tyrha always enjoys exposing the juniors and seniors in her advertising class to the joys of storytelling in advertising by way of the Super Bowl commercials. By leveraging the Super Bowl as an “edutaining” entry point for student learning, Dr. Lindsey-Warren finds it to be a fun and wonderful way to bring many advertising lessons to life for her students, including branding, consumer targeting and segmentation, social media campaign analysis, and more. To that end, here are Dr. Tyrha Lindsey-Warren’s top picks for the best Super Bowl commercials over the past five years. COUNTDOWN TO THE SUPER BOWL: DR. TYRHA’S TOP 5 SUPER BOWL COMMERCIALS FOR THE PAST 5 YEARS #5: Company/Brand: AMAZON Title of the commercial: “#BeforeAlexa” (With Ellen Degeneres and Portia de Rossi) Year it ran in the Super Bowl: 2020 Link to the commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLUwmnPJIGk Ad Agency that produced the commercial: Droga5 Dr. Tyrha’s rationale as to why this ad is so good: In my opinion, this was a wonderfully creative and clever introduction of the Alexa product by Amazon. The nostalgic storytelling in the spot humorously does make you wonder and realize how “did” we all live “before Alexa?” The commercial is multigenerational, incorporates women extremely well, and is so funny! #4. Company/Brand: NFL Title of the commercial: “Bring Down the House!” Year it ran in the Super Bowl: 2022 Link to the commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PhfMtZce1k Ad Agency that produced the commercial: Co-directed by Peter Berg of Film 47 and Arthur Mintz of Swaybox Studios Dr. Tyrha’s rationale as to why this ad is so good: In 2022, the NFL creatively leveraged the power of animation to get our attention with this wonderfully told story with children as the lead Talent and set in a situation that all families can relate to! The spot is so much fun and keeps you guessing as well as laughing with Grandma saving the day in the end. The commercial is multigenerational, multicultural, and incorporates women and girls extremely well. #3. Company/Brand: MOUNTAIN DEW & DORITOS (OWNED BY PEPSICO) Title of the commercial: “Doritos Blaze vs. Mountain Dew Ice” (with Morgan Freeman and Peter Dinklage) Year it ran in the Super Bowl: 2018 Link to the commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2tyVjEuqcY Ad Agency that produced the commercial: Goodby, Silverstein & Partners Dr. Tyrha’s rationale as to why this ad is so good: The “in your face” storytelling of this commercial – performed exquisitely by acclaimed actors, Peter Dinklage and Morgan Freeman, and accompanied by the perfect voiceover narrators in Rappers Missy Elliot and Busta Rhymes – is so much fun and truly unforgettable! The commercial also cleverly makes you pay attention to the presentation of the products being promoted as well as compels you to wonder as to “when did you last have a Mountain Dew and some Doritos?” This commercial is multicultural, multigenerational, multibodied, and incorporates women well and UBER memorable! #2. Company/Brand: NFL Title of the commercial: “The 100-Year Game” Year it ran in the Super Bowl: 2020 Link to the commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJjiIuH1VnY Ad Agency that produced the commercial: 72 and Sunny Dr. Tyrha’s rationale as to why this ad is so good: If you love the game of football, you have to love this ad that celebrates the fun and contagious spirit of the game. Truly, this commercial has something for everyone who loves the game of football! The unassuming opening of the ad’s storytelling set at an awards banquet and led by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell quickly evolves into a fun and rambunctious game of football with NFL players of all ages in their tuxedos destroying the ballroom with their play. The musical hip-hop soundtrack alone for the spot is amazing, current, and supports the action of the storytelling extremely well. This spot is multigenerational, incredibly diverse in age ethnicity and more, as well as weaves women and girls into the spot ever so cleverly. A truly memorable ad and so much fun! #1. Company/Brand: Mr. Clean (OWNED BY P&G) Title of the commercial: “Cleaner Of Your Dreams” Year it ran in the Super Bowl: 2018 Link to the commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozuWoZITX3Y Ad Agency that produced the commercial: Leo Burnett Dr. Tyrha’s rationale as to why this ad is so good: Every year I show this commercial to my Advertising students at Baylor University and they absolutely LOVE this ad! The storytelling of this commercial leverages the animated Mr. Clean in such a clever manner, while showing the product benefits at the same time, and not being “in your face” with the product’s selling proposition. The music and the dancing accompaniment to the storytelling all help to bring an emotional connection to the viewer, especially the female audience. Plus, the spot is just super funny and so much fun! Every time I see this ad, I want to run and buy Mr. Clean. And, I tell my female students every year that when they get older, they are going to LOVE a man who can clean a house!!!! Additionally, this was an incredibly smart move by P&G to put this ad in the Super Bowl. This is due to the fact that the “current and future market power of women – as a whole and by segments – is undeniable and truly cannot be ignored by marketers, especially the NFL.” Today, women influence more than 80% of all consumer spending; 89% of the financial decisions are made by women; and globally, women control more than $20 trillion in worldwide spending. In addition, nearly 24.3 million African American women are brand loyalists and cultural trendsetters who have influence over the $1.2 trillion in Black spending power. And, Forbes reported in 2018 that “women constituted about 49 % of the 108 million-plus people who watched” that year’s Super Bowl – and they paid closer attention to the ads!
The annual Healthy Georgia Report has been released by Augusta University’s Institute of Public and Preventive Health and it gives a snapshot of how Georgians stack up against not only neighboring states, but the country when it comes to a variety of health topics. This year’s report has added information on adult dental health, poor mental health, skin cancer and overdose deaths. Information on HIV risk behaviors, breast cancer screenings and colon cancer screenings have also returned. The report has been delivered to lawmakers, community leaders and researchers in Georgia to provide them with tangible figures on how Georgia is faring in numerous topics. The goal is to stimulate conversations about public health needs and, in turn, promote action, such as policy changes, greater community engagement and the appraisal of funds. Biplab Datta, PhD, assistant professor in the IPPH and the Department of Health Management, Economics and Policy, has collaborated with other IPPH faculty and staff to update the report. Datta has seen the impact this can have with state leaders. “They have a good appetite for data driven policy changes. I think this report actually helps them in that direction,” said Datta. “We tried to present data in a way that policy makers may find helpful in deciding on appropriate policy choices.” Overdose deaths is one of the new categories this year and is a hot topic nationwide. The report shows Georgia has the sixth lowest rate of overdose deaths in the country. Datta said that’s good, but the number is trending upwards and now should be the time to take steps to prevent it from getting worse. “We cannot be satisfied. We are doing a good job but need to be on our toes to prevent it from further ascending,” Datta said. Another category that Georgia is trending in a good direction is cigarette smoking. But the opposite is true for the obesity rate in the Peach State. The data shows Georgia has the 14th highest rate of obesity in all of the U.S. and the number is on the rise. The data also shows it’s related to household income and education. Adults who are below the federal poverty line and without a college degree are significantly more likely to be obese. Also, those in the 18-to-49 age group have a high rate of obesity compared to the national and regional average. “That is problematic because if someone is developing some cardiometabolic conditions in this age group, they will be at high risk for adverse cardiovascular events at an older age. So we need to focus on food habits, physical exercise, and other health promoting behaviors to prevent and control obesity,” Datta said. Another interesting topic is those in Georgia who have health insurance coverage. While coverage in adults is second lowest in the nation, there is a slight uptick in the number of people who have coverage from the past few years. The number is much better for children with health insurance. He points out that many state programs like PeachCare for Kids may account for the differences. Datta said one topic that definitely needs to be investigated more is cancer rates. He said we observe a low prevalence rate, despite the common perception and other data sources suggest a relatively higher incidence rate of cancer in Georgia. He believes we may be seeing lower survival rates that are not included in the survey. “I think we need more investigation into this particular issue,” said Datta. “Why are we seeing so low numbers of cancer prevalence when we know that cancer incidence rates are very high in Georgia?” The Healthy Georgia Report is the only report of its kind in the state Looking to know more or connect with Biplab Dhatta? Then let us help. Biplab is available to speak with media regarding this important topic. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.