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What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
As the world still isolates, social distances and stays at home – the concerns about the economy are always top of mind. Jobs, investments and paying bills are a daily topic at home and in the media. The initial spin that there’s nothing to worry about as whatever was lost is bound to bounce back once we’re back to normal is starting to fade. No one knows when that bounce back will start and the idea of back to normal, what it will look like and when is at best a guess for anyone. Public health experts are beginning to make predictions about when coronavirus infection rates will peak. Economists are calculating when the cost of continuing to shutter restaurants, shopping malls and other businesses — a move that has already pushed some 10 million Americans into unemployment, with millions more on the way — will outweigh the savings from further efforts to slow the virus once the infection curve has flattened out. Government officials are setting competing targets. President Trump has pushed his expected date of reopening the economy to the end of April. “We have to get back to work,” he said in a briefing on Saturday. “We have to open our country again. We don’t want to be doing this for months and months and months. We’re going to open our country again. This country wasn’t meant for this.” Some governors have set much more conservative targets, like Ralph Northam of Virginia, who canceled the remainder of the school year and imposed a shelter-at-home order through June 10. Other states, like Florida, only recently agreed to shut activity down but have set more aggressive targets — April 30, in the case of the Sunshine State — to restart it. April 06 – New York Times So when will it be back, what’s lost forever and how long to recover are the million-dollar questions. And if you are a journalist covering America’s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic – then let us help with your stories. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Drinking alcoholic beverages may be more appealing amid unease about the coronavirus, as people deal with shelter-at-home orders, fears about the economy and boredom, says a Baylor University researcher who studies alcohol use and misuse. But with regulations providing less access to alcohol, this may be a good time for individuals struggling with alcohol use to begin recovery and for others to guard against over-relying on alcohol or other substances. When bars and restaurants began closing — other than for such options as pickup, delivery or drive-through — liquor stores saw a surge in business, according to news reports. But Pennsylvania closed its liquor stores — some people defied stay-at-home orders and drove to liquor stores in neighboring states — and New Hampshire recently closed some of its liquor stores, according to reports. Other states who deemed the businesses “essential” also may take another look at the issue. How to grapple with the risks of substance use and misuse during this stressful time is the subject of this Q&A with Sara Dolan, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at Baylor University, who has done extensive research on substance use and misuse. Q: There are memes — some of them humorous — going around about heavy alcohol use during quarantine. Why might people be drinking more than usual? DOLAN: People have many different motivations for drinking, and I think self-isolation amplifies some of those. First, people drink to feel good. For some, being out of the normal work routine may feel like a time to let loose. People also drink to feel less bad. It would be normal to feel out of sorts now that we are social distancing. It also would be normal to feel some boredom, and certainly we feel anxiety and uneasiness about our current circumstances. Alcohol may be seen by some as a way to cope with those negative feelings. Q: How might the “new normal” be especially hard for alcoholics? Could this be a time to begin recovery? Some may be social distancing from drinking buddies, although that wouldn’t stop drinking alone. DOLAN: A forced lack of access to alcohol through social distancing and bars being closed can be a great jumping-off point for someone to begin recovery, especially when people are physically distancing from the people they drink or use with. But this can be an especially tough time for people because they may not be able to cope with all the new stressors, especially if they don’t have access to their typical means of coping. For example, for someone who usually relies on friends and family for support, social distancing can cause more stress. And loneliness is especially difficult when it is stacked on top of economic, illness and other anxieties we are experiencing. It is important for us to reach out, from a distance, to family and friends and other resources to help us cope positively so we don’t turn to drinking or other drug use to help us cope. I worry about people who are very heavy drinkers who suddenly stop drinking. Alcohol withdrawal, which can happen when a very heavy drinker stops drinking suddenly, can be very dangerous. Symptoms include anxiety, shakiness, sweatiness, headaches, nausea and even hallucinations – seeing and hearing things others don’t see or hear — and seizures. If someone who usually drinks very heavily and suddenly stops drinking experiences these symptoms, immediate medical attention is necessary. Q: What strategies would you suggest as far as dealing with heavy drinking during this time – both for drinkers and for those who love them? DOLAN: We really all need to be compassionate toward one another, regardless of our individual struggles. This is a difficult time for everyone – it is normal during a crisis like this to feel anxious and even depressed. Support is very important, both for those who are struggling and for those who seem like they are doing fine. This support can take a lot of different forms, from offering an ear to listen to offering specific strategies, such as mutual recovery groups (such as Alcoholics Anonymous, offered online) and other coping resources, like apps. Here is a list of just a few of the apps that may help people cope with stress: Breathe2Relax iChill Personal Zen Self-Help for Anxiety Management T2Mood Tracker The Mindfulness App - meditate Q: What about groups like Alcoholics Anonymous during this time, who because of guidelines against large gatherings may miss in-person support? DOLAN: There are quite a few digital resources to support recovery from alcohol and substance abuse. Here are just a few: Alcoholics Anonymous Narcotics Anonymous Smart Recovery Groups Al-Anon Recovery Groups for loved ones of those struggling with problematic alcohol use Q: Is there anything else you would like to add? DOLAN: We know that during times of crisis, rates of anxiety, depression and suicidal behaviors increase, and those feelings and behaviors can be exacerbated by heavier alcohol or drug use. Let’s do all that we can to care for those around us. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s oldest and largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and seven academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit www.baylor.edu/artsandsciences.
Baylor Remote-Work Expert Shares Tips with The New York Times
Sara Perry, Ph.D., assistant professor of management in Baylor University's Hankamer School of Business, is a nationally recognized expert on remote work and working from home. In 2018, Perry led a team of management researchers who examined the relationship between stress and remote work, which resulted in a study published in the European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology. Dr. Perry was recently a featured expert in The New York Times' piece by Jen A. Miller, "How To Work From Home, If You've Never Done It Before," which was written as millions of people were suddenly faced with launching home offices as a result of COVID-19. Regarding setting boundaries: But being expected to work from home full time while also home-schooling children full time is just not going to be realistic, said Sara Perry, assistant professor of management at Baylor University. “There’s a lot demanding of your time and energy and resources right now,” she said. This may mean having conversations with managers about adjusting their expectations, given the extraordinary circumstances. On the topic of "putting work away": For those who are used to working in an office, the evening commute is often a way to end the work day and begin home life. Dr. Perry said it’s important to continue to make the same transition, even if you’re just moving from one spot on the couch to the other. So put your work materials and your laptop away (or just shut work applications if you want to use your computer for something else). She added that this is crucial right now because “you’re already being challenged in terms of your personal resources,” she said. “You still have to take that recovery time from work.”
Are Home Prices in Peril? FAU Expert Says Coronavirus Stimulus May Hold the Key
The United States housing market faces its biggest threat in more than a decade, and whether home prices can withstand the new coronavirus pandemic largely depends on an effective stimulus package, said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist in Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed a historic $2 trillion stimulus to boost a battered U.S. economy, and getting the aid exactly right is the key to avoiding the first sustained setback to home prices since the end of the housing boom in 2006, according to Johnson. “If the stimulus package ends up being more than we need, this will almost certainly trigger a non-trivial amount of inflation in the economy, which will increase mortgage rates, which, in turn, will place downward pressure on housing prices,” Johnson said. “If the stimulus is not sufficient enough to hold down unemployment and it increases the likelihood of mortgage default, mortgage rates will rise and put downward pressure on housing prices. Only if the stimulus is just right will increasing inflation and higher unemployment be held in check.” Fixed rates for 30-year mortgages rose from 3.29 percent on March 5 to 3.65 percent on March 19, before moving down to 3.5 percent last week as the stimulus gained momentum. The higher rates are an indication that investors are factoring in inflation and the higher likelihood of default, though the recent downward trend suggests that it was the threat of rising default probabilities that was having the bigger impact on mortgage rates, according to Johnson. Since bottoming in March 2012, U.S. home prices rose 61 percent over the next seven and a half years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. The nation’s housing market rebounded from a devastating downturn when investors started renovating and reselling properties after buying them at deep discounts. The market has been robust ever since, but Zillow Group recently suspended its home-buying program as a result of the pandemic and how it may affect the housing market. The move means Zillow is worried that housing prices are at risk, according to Johnson. If mortgage rates were to climb from 3.5 percent to 5 percent, it would result in a 43 percent increase in the interest portion of a housing payment, dramatically reducing the purchasing power for consumers. “Only time will tell here,” Johnson said. “We are in uncharted waters, making it difficult to tell when and if we got the stimulus package right.” If you are a journalist covering how real estate and property values are being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic – then let our experts help. Ken Johnson is the associate dean and Investments Limited professor in the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University. Ken is available to speak to media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview and time.
My Friend Just Lost Her Job. How Do I Respond?
Baylor expert on grief shares ways people can speak with and minister to those who are unemployed due to COVID-19 For the week ending March 21, a record 3.28 million workers applied for unemployment benefits, a result of the sweeping economic consequences of COVID-19, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor. In the proverbial “blink of an eye,” many find their neighbors, friends, family – and even themselves – out of jobs that only a few weeks ago seemed safe and secure. The jobless are grieving. What’s our role? How do we help? How do we engage? Helen Harris, Ed.D., associate professor in Baylor University’s Diana R. Garland School of Social Work, is a nationally recognized expert on grief. She says one key to helping others is to imagine changing places with them – putting yourself in their position – and being the person you’d hope they’d be if the tables were turned. “The key to helping is to think about how we feel when we need help and what helps us feel comfortable,” Harris said. “This is a time to ‘do unto others as we would have them do unto us.’” In this Q&A, Harris shares tips that can help us be the neighbors, friends and family we need to be at this time. Q: With the rapid shuttering of businesses including retail stores, movie theaters and restaurants, many of our neighbors have found themselves without jobs. What are some ways we can help them during this time? Harris: This is such a hard time. People who lose their jobs feel even more anxious and vulnerable at a time when everyone is already struggling. Hopefully unemployment and the federal government allocations will make a difference, but those are not immediate. In the meantime, consider what we can do to help directly, through agencies and through our churches. It is important during this time that we reach out to our neighbors who are unemployed, not only with an encouraging word but also with concrete help like meals and supplies or rent and utilities. For families with infants, for example, we provide formula and diapers or the financial help to buy them. We can also contribute to the agencies that provide assistance to families during these hard times. Those of us who are working and earning an income have an opportunity to share with our neighbors. We can also remind them that job loss right now is about this crisis and will not last forever while being careful not to minimize what they are experiencing. This is really hard. Q: When someone is grieving – in this case due to the loss of a job – what should people say? What should they NOT say? Should we even address it at all? Harris: As is true with any loss, it is important to acknowledge it and share how sorry we are that they are going through this hard time. I would avoid minimizing or blaming for the job loss. That just is not helpful. Letting someone know that we care about their painful experience helps with isolation at a time when social distancing is already creating a sense of isolation. We need to stay socially connected even while we keep our physical distance from one another. Acknowledging how hard it is not to have a job to go to matters even as folks apply for other jobs, apply for unemployment and support one another. Q: In terms of actions, should people ask before donating money or groceries or other items? Harris: That’s a hard one. A lot depends on how well we know them and what will make them comfortable. I think when we cook a casserole or pot of beans and cornbread, cooking enough for our friend/neighbor too doesn’t require checking ahead of time. Otherwise, it makes sense to ask how we can help and then do what we can. When we are headed to get groceries or other items, we can check to see if our friend/neighbor needs something and then deliver it with the assurance of the blessing it is for us to be able to help out. There may be ways to do our helping anonymously as well when possible. Q: Is there anything else you’d like to share? Harris: When reaching out to people, it might be appropriate to use a statement like: “I like to believe that when I need help, and we all do sometimes, that someone will be there for me and my family. Right now, I am able to help. Next time, it could be me who needs help. I believe we are best when we are there for each other. So, thanks for letting me help.” It can also be a huge help to let folks know when we are aware of job possibilities and willing to put in a good word for them. Also Read: “Unintended Consequences of COVID-19,” an article by Baylor University’s Helen Harris, Ed.D., associate professor of social work, and Bill Hoy, D.M., clinical professor of medical humanities. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE DIANA R. GARLAND SCHOOL OF SOCIAL WORK AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University’s Diana R. Garland School of Social Work is home to one of the leading graduate social work programs in the nation with a research agenda focused on the integration of faith and practice. Upholding its mission of preparing social workers in a Christian context for worldwide service and leadership, the School offers a baccalaureate degree (B.S.W.); a Master of Social Work (M.S.W.) degree available on the Waco or Houston campuses or online; three joint-degree options, M.S.W./M.B.A., M.S.W./M.Div. and M.S.W./M.T.S., through a partnership with Baylor’s Hankamer School of Business and George W. Truett Theological Seminary; and an online Ph.D. program. Visit www.baylor.edu/social_work to learn more.
Don’t Neglect Spiritual, Mental Health During this Time of Health Crisis, Baylor Expert Says
In a difficult and ever-changing time of crisis surrounding the spread of coronavirus, the basic needs of health and safety come first. But as these basic physiological needs are met, the more advanced care for spiritual and mental health can remain overlooked or ignored altogether. Baylor University’s Holly Oxhandler, Ph.D., LMSW., associate dean for research and faculty development and assistant professor the Diana R. Garland School of Social Work, is an expert on mental health, primarily anxiety and depression, as well as religion and spirituality in clinical practice. In this Q&A, she shares tips and resources to help unhook from the baser instincts of fear and anxiety, even momentarily, to monitor and care for spiritual and mental health needs. Q: During a crisis, why do spiritual and mental health needs tend to be overlooked or ignored? A: In the midst of a crisis, our natural reaction is to go into a fight-or-flight response to the situation. Our most basic needs must be met, such as finding a sense of safety, and our bodies are doing what they were designed to do: to protect us. For example, if we were to encounter a bear on a hiking trail, our sympathetic nervous system would be activated to meet the basic need of keeping us safe. Our spiritual and mental health are not primary needs in that moment of crisis. If we were to run from that bear and reach safety, our emotions would eventually become regulated, our breathing would become normal, and we could return to a generally balanced way of being that allows for attention to our spiritual and mental health. However, we are in a prolonged moment of crisis surrounded by uncertainty, constantly evolving news updates and daily threats to our and loved ones’ safety regarding our health, finances and sense of normalcy. In this state of constant stress, it can be really hard to unhook from the fight-or-flight response and remember to tend to our spiritual and mental health. Q: How can people tend to their spiritual health during this time of crisis? A: In this moment, most of us are being forced to be still and/or surrender the illusion of control in ways we have never faced before. In this stillness, our spiritual practices can help remind us of a divine Love that is with us through each moment, but we must intentionally set time aside to practice them. Plus, many research studies have shown healthy, positive spiritual practices have the potential to support our mental and physical health. One thing that’s very important, especially in the midst of this crisis, is that we do not spiritually bypass what’s happening. It may be tempting to want to jump to hope and ignore the pain, but to the best of our ability, our faith traditions teach us we must sit with and feel the grief rooted in the overwhelming change and loss we and our neighbors are facing. As Fr. Richard Rohr says, “If we do not transform the pain, we will most assuredly transmit it – usually to those closest to us.” We must be with the fear and uncertainty, grieve the loss of life as we knew it a few weeks ago, pray the psalms of lament, and feel the freedom to wrestle with and/or cry out to God in ways we read about others doing so in our sacred texts. The important thing is that each of us engages in something tied to our faith, regardless of what we believe in, and to be consistent in the practice, continually learning to surrender that sense of control we’re all finding ourselves learning to do right now. Spiritual Health Tips Prayer Reading our sacred text Meditation Centering prayer (my personal favorite, which teaches us silence, solitude and stillness) Breath prayers (here are some examples) Engaging in creativity (music, dance, art) as an act of worship Practicing gratitude Seeking beauty in the mundane Yoga Journaling Especially in this time of increased isolation, I would recommend inviting others into these practices for a sense of solidarity and community, including those within our home or via social media, video conferencing or by phone. Q: How can people tend to their mental health needs? A: The first practice I would recommend is to pause and breathe deep for 4-5 seconds, noticing your belly rise instead of your chest, and breathe out for 6-7 seconds. The second would be grounding. When our brain is flooded with information and emotion, it is hard to stay present. In grounding, we take a deep breath and ask ourselves five questions to return to the present moment: What do I smell right now? What do I taste? What do I see in front of me? What can I touch and feel the surface of? What do I hear? A third recommendation would be to get outside as often as you can and, ideally, into some sunlight. I would also recommend the practice of tuning into our bodies. For many of us, it can be difficult to pay attention to what our bodies are trying to tell us, in the same way our thoughts and emotions communicate with us. Especially now, pay attention to the tension in your neck, the overall exhaustion, the pain in your arm muscles, the tightness in your chest, or any other experiences you notice by tuning in. Your body may be trying to tell you to spend less time watching the news (maybe cut back to 1-2 times a day), to take a nap or to move it and exercise. Last, and perhaps most importantly, do not hesitate to reach out for help if you are noticing changes in your appetite, sleep, mood, thoughts or feelings. Stay in communication with loved ones but just as you would seek a medical doctor for a broken arm, seek a therapist when you notice changes in your mental health. Many therapists are quickly adapting to telehealth services in this moment to meet growing demands and social distancing expectations. Some sites for finding a therapist include Psychology Today or HelpPRO, and if you or a loved one are deeply struggling, please reach out to the National Suicide Hotline or call 800-273-TALK (8255). Reaching out for help with your mental health is a sign of courage, not weakness. Q: During this time of crisis, what populations do you feel are most vulnerable to mental or spiritual health decline? A: Honestly, I think every single one of us are vulnerable to mental and spiritual health decline during this moment for varying reasons. As mentioned before, these parts of us are easily brushed aside when we’re most focused on ensuring our basic needs of safety and security are met. Still, there are a few groups I’m especially sensitive to. The first are the helpers on the front line facing far more need than resources, time or energy to meet those needs. These include our health care providers, social workers, therapists, grocery and restaurant employees, teachers, parents, nonprofit organizations, faith leaders, volunteers, community leaders, pharmacists, lab technicians, scientists and more. These helpers are at such high risk of burnout and my hope is that, to the best of their ability, they are caring for themselves holistically in order to care for others well. I’m also sensitive to a few other groups who are vulnerable to mental and spiritual health decline. First, older adults are the most religious cohort and are already at risk for depression and isolation even without a crisis, so I worry for them in light of the necessary social distancing. Second, in light of added pressures, those with various mental illnesses must continue to care for themselves via the medication or therapy they need. Third, I’m sensitive to those who are recovering from a substance or behavioral addiction and are now surrounded by overwhelming stressors that put them at a higher risk of relapse. Thankfully, recovery groups are now moving online and I would encourage those in recovery or remain plugged into a group. Q: Many people are unable to access a doctor or professional therapist to get help. What are some resources for those that may need free or low-cost options? A: There are a number of websites that can help individuals find a professional mental health care provider, such as a licensed clinical social worker, psychologist, counselor or marriage and family therapist. I mentioned Psychology Today, HelpPRO, and the Suicide Prevention Hotline above, but there are others. Better Help and Talk Space are two growing online therapy sites and Low Cost Help elevates providers with affordable rates. I also host a weekly podcast, CXMH: Christianity and Mental Health, which has a ton of episodes on various topics related to this intersection, including a recent one specifically on COVID-19. You can also contact your insurance provider to see who is in network or, if you do have a primary care provider, see if they have any recommendations. Your local faith communities may also have a list of mental health care providers to consider. There are also many organizations committed to providing resources, including the Substance Abuse & Mental Health Services Administration, National Alliance on Mental Illness, and the National Institute on Mental Health. Q: How can neighbors help neighbors and individuals help individuals outside of the professional or therapy setting? A: I really want to emphasize that, especially in this moment, we must practice extending grace, being still and holistically caring for ourselves so that we can care for others well. We can do our part to serve those who are serving others, even if that means practicing social distancing and stillness, while tending to our spiritual and mental health. Discerning what is ours to do in this moment to offer help, healing, hope and love to our neighbors as well as ourselves, and to help protect our helpers from burning out, will be critical in the days and weeks ahead. As Chris and Phileena Heuertz shared in their prayer, A Call to Solidarity During COVID-19: “You’re not alone. We’re in this together. We’ll do everything we can to help.” ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT THE DIANA R. GARLAND SCHOOL OF SOCIAL WORK AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University’s Diana R. Garland School of Social Work is home to one of the leading graduate social work programs in the nation with a research agenda focused on the integration of faith and practice. Upholding its mission of preparing social workers in a Christian context for worldwide service and leadership, the School offers a baccalaureate degree (B.S.W.); a Master of Social Work (M.S.W.) degree available on the Waco or Houston campuses or online; three joint-degree options, M.S.W./M.B.A., M.S.W./M.Div. and M.S.W./M.T.S., through a partnership with Baylor’s Hankamer School of Business and George W. Truett Theological Seminary; and an online Ph.D. program. Visit www.baylor.edu/social_work to learn more.
Baylor Expert on Remote Work Shares 5 Key Tips to Make the Most of Working from Home
The international response to the COVID-19 public health crisis has led millions of workers to make home their new office as communities and organizations promote social distancing to slow the spread of the virus. For many individuals, this spring marks the first time they will have worked from home for a substantial amount of time. Sara Perry, Ph.D., assistant professor of management in Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, an internationally-recognized remote work researcher and author of a 2018 study published in the European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, offers tips in five key areas for employees to consider as they make the most of working from home. “Research has given us some good empirical evidence of key areas that will help remote work be more successful,” Perry said. Create a physical work space. Perry: If it’s possible, we have to have a separate working space, especially if you can close the door to focus. This would be ideal, but if you can't do that, try setting up different workspaces around your home that are well-defined and that you can “close” at the end of the day to help maintain a balance in terms of your family and your work. Now, if you have kids in the mix as well, then I think we need to set up a workstation for them as well. It can be the kitchen table or the bar. Younger kids can have stations of their own, too – like the stations they would have in preschool. Some people even talk about making a standing desk with books, to be able to move your position throughout the day. Everyone in the family might even like to rotate around throughout the day, sharing the different work spaces. Think about how you can work outside, too, weather permitting. Adhere to a work schedule – and take breaks. Perry: We aren't going to have clear boundaries of time. We're going to have to make them. The best thing to do is to start with a schedule similar to what you would already be doing if you went to work. If you can try to stick close to the same schedule, you're going to find the transition easier. Don't start sleeping in and doing things completely differently — that will make the adjustment a lot harder. Take breaks. Research by my colleagues Emily Hunter and Cindy Wu found that optimal breaks come mid-morning, and it can set you up for the rest of the day. It’s important to get up and move away from the screen periodically. A short break can help preserve your focus and attention resources for the rest of the day. For your further well-being, you will need to turn work off at the end of the day, because no one is going to shut it off for you. Pick a way that you're going to do that, whether it's to put your stuff away, or by planning some sort of transition time that would replace what your commute would have done. Some people will call someone or listen to a podcast. For others, or a walk around the neighborhood provides something to transition and decompress. Think about what you would normally do (or want to do) and see if you can work that in for your own transition from work to family time. Connect with others. Perry: The change in physical environment is going to be a big change even for people who are used to working remotely. At work, you may feel a sense of connection to people even if you don’t even talk to them. You at least have their presence, and we’re going to miss that in the coming weeks. One of the biggest concerns in the remote work literature is isolation, and while individuals who have families at home might not feel isolated from people in general, we might feel isolated from our professional lives and identity. We’ll have to be more proactive about using technology in a way to stay connected while still remaining productive. We don’t want to have virtual meetings for the sake of meetings, but we might want to have some for the sake of connection. For leaders, check in and make sure people have resources and that they are doing okay as we all adapt to a virtual workspace. Try to be proactive about it. Maybe we have a video call simply to check in for 30 minutes at the end of the day or whenever, just try to stay connected. Help children and family adjust. Perry: With my children, I’m thinking about how to create some type of structure, taking lessons from our homeschool friends about how they set up their day. I’ve found that my children and my friends’ children get excited about reconstructing their own schedule from school at home. So, let them have some input about what their day should look like, and try to work your schedule in tandem or in parallel with that. Scheduling loose blocks of time for tasks throughout the day can help with this, too. Blocking off time can help you communicate, “for the next 30 minutes or the next hour, we’re all going to work on this activity at our separate stations, then meet and redirect. We know it's possible because a lot of schools have a model where students are self-directed. You give them direction and then they go do it. However, we also don’t want to over-schedule, or over-do anything. We need to enjoy the time that we have with them, and be grateful for that, and practice gratitude daily as we try to manage all of this.” Manage expectations. Perry: In light of everything that we're facing, it’s important to stay flexible. That’s true for leaders—really try to have flexibility and allow your employees to figure out how remote work best works for them. We can't micromanage from afar. We can check in, make sure everyone has resources, make sure people are doing OK. Some people need a little more of that than others, but we really need to just adapt and be flexible. It’s important that everyone should try to be realistic, be clear with expectations, but also try to be realistic about what's actually going to happen over the next several weeks. All of us are under a lot of stress, more stress than normal. So, we just have to have realistic expectations and recognize that all of us, and our leaders, are experiencing a learning curve. We need to think about the big picture as we roll this out, and really keep employee wellbeing as the number one consideration. Note: This interview is adapted from Dr. Perry’s interview on the Baylor Connections podcast. Visit the Baylor Connections website to listen to the full interview. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT HANKAMER SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY At Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, integrity stands shoulder-to-shoulder with analytic and strategic strengths. The School’s top-ranked programs combine rigorous classroom learning, hands-on experience in the real world, a solid foundation in Christian values and a global outlook. Making up approximately 25 percent of the University’s total enrollment, undergraduate students choose from 16 major areas of study. Graduate students choose from full-time, executive or online MBA or other specialized master’s programs, and Ph.D. programs in Information Systems, Entrepreneurship or Health Services Research. The Business School also has campuses located in Austin and Dallas, Texas. Visit www.baylor.edu/business and follow on Twitter at twitter.com/Baylor_Business.
What are IDC's Tech Insights on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian Market?
Dear Member of the IDC Canada Community, As we all adapt to this ever changing environment, our Canadian team has been working behind the scenes analyzing the COVID-19 impact on the Canadian ICT market. This email provides you with tech insights, including updates on market outlook and further resources to help you make critical business decisions in the weeks and months ahead. Canadian Total IT Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down from 2.4% to -5.0% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Research Scenario The coronavirus outbreak across the world and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially affect the Canadian IT markets, severely accelerating the impact already felt from the supply-driven effects from Asia. In this extremely fluid scenario, International Data Corporation (IDC) now expects to see a significant slowdown in technology spending in 2020 across Canadian organizations, with IT spending expected to decline by -5.0%. As recently as December 2019, we were projecting a positive 2.4% growth rate for 2020. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for Q2 and Q3. "Technology vendors and buyers are rapidly adapting to the disruption and the extremely fast-moving market conditions," said Nigel Wallis , Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian IT market fully. However, given the sharp economic contraction, IDC recommends that all technology leaders recalibrate their strategies." IDC Canada has developed three scenarios to help technology providers and buyers with their short-term business and technology investment planning. "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3. Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4," said Tony Olvet , GVP Research, at IDC Canada. A Probable Scenario Depicting a Decline In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian IT spending to decline by -5.0% in constant currency terms this year, down from the 2.4% forecast published at the end of 2019. "When taking a broad historical view of Canadian IT spending across the past decade, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis is expected to exceed the levels of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. As such, it does represent the most significant deceleration in IT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time," said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. As restrictions of movement bite, supply-chain disruption becomes commonplace, and demand drops, Canadian IT spending will drop rapidly in Q2. Particularly manufacturing, personal and consumer services, transportation, and hospitality will be sharply curbed, as these industries are the most exposed to the COVID-19 crisis impact in the short-, mid-, and long-term view. At the same time, other sectors, such as healthcare and government, will be forced to accelerate investments significantly. IDC expects this will drive additional IT investments for the public sector, pushing hard on infrastructure and collaboration tools deployments, but not before the second half of 2020." In the most pessimistic scenario, IDC expects ICT spending to drop and record a –8.2% decline in 2020, with all technology domains showing negative trends for the remaining part of the year. A series of domino effects, including oil price changes, currency depreciation, the inability of governments to make timely payments, delays in the supply chains and significant lay-offs would lead to a much more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market and an exponential increase in the downside risk in IDC's market forecast assumptions. The new outlook is shaped primarily by lower expectations in the hardware and services markets: Hardware markets will suffer due to restriction measures hampering supply and overall reduced demand. Client Devices are particularly hit hard, initially because of supply constraints and in later quarters as reduced demand further erode growth. The most significant impact on the IT services industry will be a result of businesses postponing decisions on pending projects and slowing the execution of projects in the delivery phase. Spending reductions on the software and telecoms markets are less pronounced, and some positive factors are expected to moderate the natural downturn somewhat. While the decrease in hardware spending will also negatively impact the overall software market to a degree, difficulties prompted by COVID-19 across industries will impact total telecommunication spending (this will be examined in forthcoming IDC Canada research). At the same time, the increasing need for remote collaboration will push telecom services demand and drive new opportunities in the collaborative applications and platforms areas, as well as an increase in security technologies that enable them. The pre-existing digital maturity of industries will also be a factor impacting on their capacity to invest in technologies, regardless of their budget capabilities. Limited face-to-face business relationships between vendors and end-users will inevitably also reduce investment in significant digital transformation projects in less mature industries, and especially for projects involving more advanced technologies. Social distancing and provincial lock downs (the duration is hard to predict) will also have significant consequences on the purchasing options for many consumers. Additional factors weighing on investment will range from a decrease in customer demand to supply chains breaking up," said Meng Cong , Manager, Market Insights & Analytics at IDC Canada. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow. In use cases such as patient care as well as customer, citizen, student or employee experience and proximity, we expect to see accelerated adoption of digital solutions. Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." Register for our Complimentary Webcast Now On-Demand IDC's Canadian team is closely monitoring the evolution of the ICT market and its reaction to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios. If you are interested in knowing more about this, please register for the IDC Canada Complimentary Webcast COVID-19 Impact in the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
While a huge focus is on health and mortality during the coronavirus outbreak, not to be forgotten are those who are grappling with death from natural causes, diseases, accidents and crime. Funerals and visitations are the customary means of support friends and loved ones — but restricted travel and social distancing poses challenges. Here are suggestions about grieving from Candi Cann, Ph.D., associate professor in the Baylor Interdisciplinary Core of the Honors College and author of “Virtual Afterlives: Grieving the Dead in the Twenty-first Century”; and Bill Hoy, clinical professor of medical humanities and author of “Do Funerals Matter: The Purposes and Practices of Death Rituals in Global Perspective.” Q: Funerals and visitations are such a time of hugs, hand-holding, prayers, closeness — simply being there. How might travel restrictions, social distancing and concerns for personal health interfere — and how can family and friends be supportive? CANN: I think live-streaming of funerals is a great option and allows people to be present from a distance. Most companies also offer virtual guestbooks where one can leave a teddy bear or flowers, light candles, etc., online in honor of the person. Many cemeteries are also moving online so that each gravestone will have a corresponding virtual memorial, filled with the deceased person's playlist, videos, pictures and memories. Of course, as with all technology, the capability of funeral homes varies from business to business, but my guess is that from an industry perspective, we are going to see a jump in virtual and online offerings as the funeral industry tries to stay relevant and contemporaneous. Also, if presence is important, one can choose disposal options that allow for the return of the deceased into the home, such as being cremated into cremains, or made into a diamond that one wears, or a record that one plays. You can insert cremains into the vinyl and make a record, or a glass sculpture with the cremains mixed into the glass. So, you don't have to be separated from the dead. HOY: I agree that live-streaming may have to suffice, but our experience shows it is a poor second choice. From time immemorial, we have seen that physical presence is vital, and I think that is what is so alarming to me about some of the current discussion in our culture. I was taking care of AIDS patients in Los Angeles in the 1980s when we saw some of the same disenfranchisement of grief, requiring direct cremation of the body and in some cases, forbidding the gathering of people in funeral rituals. It did not turn out to be a psychosocially sound practice and is creating a high level of concern on the part of my clinical colleagues. Q: Have there been times in history when this has been an issue as well when it comes to contagious disease? Have people taken safeguards before? HOY: Two notable examples were the 1918-19 Influenza Epidemic — unfortunately misnamed Spanish Flu — and the 2014-15 Ebola crisis in West Africa. In both cases, high numbers of dead coupled with high levels of contagion caused health authorities to create quarantines and eliminate gatherings such as funerals. Recent research out of the Ebola epidemic indicates that at least in some cases, these measures were counterproductive in that “secret” burials took place and those who had money were able to bribe officials to look the other way. I think we want to be especially vigilant to make sure we are being economically and socially just in the policies we put in place. Fortunately, we do have media to help bridge those gaps now that were not available in those other events, so that will almost certainly help. I am going to stop far short, however, of suggesting that media even approaches a point of providing the same psycho-social-spiritual benefit that sharing a space, rubbing shoulders and sharing tears do. CANN: The most recent epidemic in the United States was the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s and 1990s. By October of 1995, there were over half a million cases of people with AIDS, and many people did not know how to treat or interact with those who were infected. And just this month, a second person was cured of HIV with a stem cell transplant. I have lots of faith in our scientists and that they will be able to create an effective vaccination or cure for COVID-19. Q: Besides finding new or different ways to express support and love to others, what about oneself? We hear about self-isolation – what about self-comfort and self-care in other ways? HOY: This is a great time for self-reflection. What I am doing for myself are the things I recommend to others. Besides being vigilant about what I eat and getting out in the fresh air, I am taking care of myself by limiting my exposure to media. I have not been a big user of social media anyway, but I recommend to folks to be very careful about that because the COVID-19 misinformation is rampant. Instead, I check the National Institutes of Health website once each day for scientific updates, and I have taken all the news update alerts off my phone. Instead, I am trying to give more time to talking with family and friends by phone and video conferencing, journaling and reading. Of course, like other professors, I am spending time talking with students and getting ready to take my classes online next week. In my personal Bible study time, I decided I would spend some time looking at Scripture passages that address fear and have particularly enjoyed hearing God’s perspective on this. CANN: I think one of the hardest things about death is that life goes on without the dead. The birds keep chirping, the flowers keep blooming, people keep being worried about the most mundane matters — and that's difficult when a part of our world has stopped. But this is also what is beautiful about death. It forces us to see life all around us — its fragility, its constancy and its beauty. So, for me, self-care in grief is talking about death, talking with others about the one we lost and living again — in honor of the person who died who doesn't get to be here living anymore. As we embrace life, I strongly recommend that people reach out to friends and family. Social distancing does not need to mean social isolation. I'm also going on regular walks and spending time outside. We need to stay healthy and in shape during this time. Some people are finding it fun to do group-gaming and discovering new ways to spend time with family and friends either virtually in games or via video. Catholic churches are offering drive-through Eucharist and confession, Protestant churches are live-streaming their services and youth groups, Islamic mosques are live-streaming prayers and Buddhist temples are live-streaming meditation sessions. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 17,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions.
