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Have you finished your Christmas shopping yet? If not – waiting for last minute deals or just pushing off the pain of navigating a jam-packed shopping mall might result in some failed efforts, unhappy kids and even the potential for coal in your own stocking for letting some loved ones down. Recently, John Talbott, the director of the Center for Education and Research in Retailing at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business was interviewed on the IBJ podcast to explain how supply chain woes may be creating chaos this Christmas. Experts expect shoppers to drop a record amount of money this holiday season. The National Retail Federation forecasts sales for November and December to grow between 8.5% and 10.5% over the same months in 2020. In total dollars, that would be between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. At the same time, the supply-chain issues that have plagued commerce since the start of the pandemic are expected to complicate gift buying and limit stock for some products. The answer is to get your shopping done as soon as possible, because you might not get a second chance, says John Talbott, the director of the Center for Education and Research in Retailing at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. In the latest edition of the IBJ Podcast, Talbott explores other big questions with host Mason King. Does Indy’s status as a leading U.S. logistics hub give Hoosiers a leg up on gift availability? What role might inflation play in this year’s shopping season? Why are gift cards even more valuable than usual this year? How can we avoid cybercrime? And are there any blockbuster, must-have gifts for this season? November 28 – IBJ Podcast And if you’re a journalist looking to know more or covert this subject – then let us help. John Talbott is the Director for the Center for Education and Research in Retail at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business. He’s an expert in the areas of retailing, relating marketing activities to financial outcomes, and new media communication. John is available to speak with media regarding this important topic – simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
Canadian finances 101: What you should know as a newcomer
Canada’s financial ecosystem is made up of banks, credit unions, trusts, and other financial and insurance companies and it is considered to be one of the most sound and safest in the world. According to the Global Competitiveness Report 2019, published by the World Economic Forum, Canada ranked 9th globally for its financial system, showcasing stability and reliability. As you plan your move, familiarizing yourself with the Canadian banking and financial landscape can help provide context to key tasks like opening bank accounts, building credit history, borrowing money, and filing taxes. In this article: Types of financial institutions in Canada Getting started with taxes: The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada: A credit-based economy Banking, investments, and money transfers What are the types of financial institutions in Canada? Financial institutions in Canada can be classified into three main categories: 1. Banking institutions These are places where you can deposit, withdraw and borrow money. Examples of such institutions include banks, online-only banks, credit unions, trust companies, mortgage companies, etc. Banks A bank is licensed to receive deposits and make loans. Most banks are managed by the national government. The five largest banks in Canada are often referred to as the “big five” in banking. They are: Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank), Bank of Montreal (BMO), and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC). Sometimes, you may hear the term “big six,” including the National Bank of Canada – although, note that its operations are primarily focused in the provinces of Quebec and New Brunswick. Digital-only banks In addition to these banks, there are a few digital-only banks, such as Tangerine (a subsidiary of Scotiabank), Simplii Financial (a subsidiary of CIBC), and EQ Bank. They provide all services online only and do not have any physical branches. Credit unions A credit union is a smaller financial institution that is owned by its members, who are also typically account holders. They operate under provincial legislation and regulations and provide similar services as banks. The main difference between a credit union and a bank is their structure; credit unions are owned by anyone with money in the credit union. The operations are supervised by a democratically elected board of directors made up of local community members. Due to their scale of operations, note that credit unions may have fewer branches and ATMs than a big bank would. Tip: As a newcomer to Canada, you can choose any financial institution of your choice. However, it is helpful to know that the big five banks (like RBC) have newcomer banking packages that specifically cater to permanent residents and international students and are thus better positioned to assist you in your unique situation. Trust companies Trust companies are legal entities similar to banks that act as an agent (on behalf of a person or business) for the purpose of administration, management and the eventual transfer of assets to a party. Mortgage companies Money lending entities such as mortgage finance companies (MFCs) and mortgage investment corporations (MICs) provide real estate financing. MFCs are non-depository financial institutions that underwrite and administer mortgages sourced through brokers. Their lending is funded mainly through securitization or direct sales to third parties, primarily the big six banks. MICs and other private investors typically deal in uninsured, customized mortgage products that are not available through traditional channels. These products include non-prime loans, second mortgages and very short-term mortgages. Key financial authority: The Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada is the nation’s central bank. Its principal role is to promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada. The Bank influences the supply of money circulating in the economy, using its monetary policy framework to keep inflation low and stable. It promotes safe, sound and efficient financial systems, within Canada and internationally, and conducts transactions in financial markets in support of these objectives. Additionally, the Bank of Canada also designs, issues and distributes Canada’s bank notes and acts as the “fiscal agent” for the government of Canada, managing its public debt programs and foreign exchange reserves. It also sets the interest rates in Canada. 2. Insurance companies These are entities that sell insurance to cover the risk of loss in various situations, caused due to a variety of factors. They include homeowner or renter’s insurance, health insurance, car insurance, life insurance, and more. They compensate you for any loss that’s covered by your insurance policy. Once you purchase a specific type of insurance, you are required to make periodic payments, called premiums, to the insurance company to avail of the agreed-upon coverage. 3. Investment companies These are organizations that focus on investing, administering or managing funds or money on behalf of other persons. Examples of such companies are investment banks, hedge funds, underwriters, and brokerage firms. Note: There might be an overlap in the services provided by financial institutions. For instance, a leading bank like RBC offers banking services, mortgages, a wide variety of insurance options, investment solutions, and more. Tip: Beware of predatory lenders offering payday, instalment, and other types of loans with very high interest rates. These lenders often prey upon people who need cash quickly and who have run out of all other options. They usually have exorbitant interest rates, confusing and misleading representations, and a lack of transparency and documentation. Therefore, always double-check money lending claims that seem too good to be true. Note that payday loans are provincially regulated while instalment loans are unregulated. What this means is – while interest rates cannot exceed 60 per cent, lenders are effectively free to change terms and add fees and other charges almost at will. Getting started with taxes: The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) The CRA administers tax laws for the Government of Canada and for most provinces and territories. It administers various social and economic benefit and incentive programs delivered through the tax system. The CRA website is the go-to place for everything related to your taxes: filing annual tax returns, checking receipt of Government benefits and subsidies, viewing tax documents, etc. Important: To register for CRA’s “My Account,” you must have filed a tax return for the current or a previous year. Download Arrive’s free tax guide for newcomers for insights on how to file your taxes and to make sure you’re prepared to manage the expectations that come with paying taxes in Canada. Note: Beware of a long-running CRA scam with callers posing as representatives of the CRA. The CRA will never use threatening language nor ask for information about your passport, health card, driver’s license, or demand immediate payment by Interac e-transfer, bitcoin, prepaid credit cards or gift cards from retailers such as iTunes, Amazon. Canada: A credit-based economy North American countries such as the U.S. and Canada are known to be credit-based economies. This essentially means that most people use their credit cards (instead of debit cards or using cash) to make purchases and then repay the entire amount owed either at the end of their credit card billing cycle or in installments. You will need to build your own credit history, since this is essential to many aspects of life in Canada. Once you receive your first credit card, start by making payments for small expenses such as phone bills or groceries, and be sure you pay the balance in full by the end of the billing cycle. Tip: Keep in mind that credit cards have limits and do not offer free money. They can carry very high-interest rates, so your balance should be managed and paid down promptly – this will help you maintain a good credit rating. A credit score is a way for financial institutions to measure your ability to repay loans. Some scenarios where you may be asked for a credit report are while renting accommodation, applying to certain jobs, and obtaining mortgages or other loans from the bank. Additional resources Download Arrive’s free Credit guide to learn more about credit cards, credit scores, and credit ratings in Canada. For tips on staying debt-free and building your credit history in Canada, read How to build a good credit score from scratch as a newcomer. Banking, investments, and money transfers in Canada Banking Like many other countries, in Canada, you can conduct all your banking and money transfer transactions by walking into a branch or online, through internet banking. See How to open a bank account in Canada as a newcomer to know the process of opening a newcomer account. The article will also provide tips and resources to help you learn more about credit and direct deposits. Investments There are many financial products available to save and invest your money in Canada. They can be broadly classified into savings accounts, registered savings plans and investment products. Depending on your goals and your appetite for risk, you can choose one or a combination of several of these. Read Savings and investments for newcomers in Canada for deeper insights into all available investment products. Money transfers For domestic peer-to-peer payments (think: sending money to a friend, relative, co-worker, or acquaintance in Canada), there are a couple of ways to send and receive money online: Interac and Paypal. Interac is a bank-based tool, while Paypal is a non-bank, third party service. Among these, Interac e-transfers are the most popular and widely used form of peer-to-peer payments in Canada. You can send money overseas through online or mobile banking, by telephone, by email, or in-person. Banks like RBC have a simplified, affordable, and convenient process for international money transfer through online banking. If you have the recipient’s banking information handy, all it takes is a few clicks! Some popular options for international remittances are: Banks Credit unions Money transfer operators like Western Union, MoneyGram, WorldRemit, etc. Peer-to-peer transfer providers such as Transferwise (now, Wise), CurrencyFair, Paypal, etc. Currency exchange businesses When sending money overseas, the Canadian federal government tracks large sums (over $10,000 CAD) through Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) to prevent money-laundering, terrorism funding, and related crimes. Understanding financial products and regulatory agencies in Canada can make you feel overwhelmed. Start with the basics so you can build awareness and a strong foundation to manage your finances in Canada. Original article located here, published by Arrive.
UK inflation rate jumps to 2.1%: University of Warwick experts comment
The Office of National Statistics reports that the inflation rate in the UK has risen to 2.1%, passing the Bank of England target of 2%. Professor Abhinay Muthoo of the University of Warwick Department of Economics and Professor Nigel Driffield of Warwick Business School comment here on what factors could have caused this jump. Professor Abhinay Muthoo of the Department of Economics at the University of Warwick said: "Figures released by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) show UK inflation has jumped to 2.1% in the year to May. This means inflation is now above the Bank of England target of 2%. There is concern amongst some economists that inflation will rise further, and more importantly, that these higher levels of inflation are permanent. Hence, for example a call by some that the Bank of England should quickly raise interest rates. "I believe this higher than target inflation is very likely to be temporary. This current increase is driven by a few factors. One being a sudden and sharp increase in consumer spending as consumers are rushing to spend their savings from the past year of lockdown, and supply cannot, at the moment, keep up with that strong demand. I expect inflation to return to under Bank of England’s 2% target by around early next year." Professor Nigel Driffield of Warwick Business School said: “Supply of various goods and services is or has been constrained by Covid, and while many people have suffered financially because of Covid there is also a high level of pent up demand. This pertains not only to goods and services made here, but also imported. So for a while we are going to see pressure on inflation as the economy opens up.”
Is This Bitcoin's Time to Shine?
Bitcoin was invented in 2008 and launched in 2009, but after years of skepticism, it's finally becoming a part of mainstream conversation. The cryptocurrency's value has continued to rise since 2017, but with the start of 2021, its price has surged and many more companies are looking for ways to get involved. Tesla and Square have invested. (You can even buy a Tesla with bitcoins.) Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are exploring ways to meet customer demand for cryptocurrency investment. A National Football League player converted half of his salary into bitcoins. And Major League Baseball's Oakland Athletics are offering a suite for the 2021 season at the price of one bitcoin. So, if it's been around for so long, why are we only seeing this mainstream push now? "I think the Bitcoin ecosystem is developing to the point where people can start to think about using it as a currency," said John Sedunov, PhD, an associate professor of finance who studies Bitcoin. "However, the price still remains volatile, and it isn't clear that the currency can maintain its current $50,00-to-60,000 value." While there are companies adopting and investing now, this will still be a gradual process, Dr. Sedunov says. "As businesses become better able to accept the currency, and perhaps more importantly better able to withstand and manage the volatility of Bitcoin, then the currency will become more widespread in its use. The process would be expedited if the entire supply chain accepted Bitcoin, rather than just the retailer and the end of the chain. This would smooth the process and allow people to utilize the currency without as much concern for converting it." Additionally, Dr. Sedunov notes that there needs to be a continued evolution of the ability of firms to accept and manage the currency, in addition to a reduction in the volatility of the currency. Smaller businesses may be at much more of a risk than large corporations and banks if there is price instability. But the value of Bitcoin won't be this high forever. As the country and economy continue to deal with the impact of the pandemic, there are growing concerns that inflation could be next, pushing consumers to other options, like cryptocurrency. "When the pandemic ends and there is, perhaps, more economic stability, Bitcoin's value will wane a bit, but I don't think it will fade to nothing," Sedunov notes. "The big question mark, to me, is the U.S. Dollar and inflation. Inflation expectations are rising, and this only pushes people more toward alternatives. If this trend continues, then perhaps economic stability will be a bit lower, and more people will flock toward Bitcoin."
With an economy on life support – is inflation inevitable?
As countries around the globe are flooding their respective economies with enough cash to hold back the financial tsunami that could be felt by COVID-19 … will all that cash inevitably come with an unfortunate consequence like inflation? Those who work the markets and do their best to see into the future … think so. With the world economy forecast to shrink 6% this year, it may seem like a strange time to fret about inflation. And sure enough, market-based gauges suggest an uptrend in prices may not trouble investors for years. U.S. and euro zone inflation gauges indicate that annual price growth will be running at barely over 1% even a decade from now. So if inflation really is, as the IMF put it in 2013, “the dog that didn’t bark”, failing to respond to all the central bank money-printing unleashed in the wake of the 2008-9 crisis, why should investors prepare for it now, especially as demographics and technology are also conspiring to tamp down inflation across the developed world? The answer is that some think the dog really will bark this time, partly because - unlike in the post-2008 years - governments around the world have also been rolling out massive spending packages, in a bid to limit the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. “We will be pushing, pushing, pushing on the string and dropping our guard, then 3-5 years from now...that’s when the (inflation) dog will start barking,” said PineBridge Investments’ head of multi-asset Mike Kelly, who has been buying gold on that view. “Gold worries about such things long in advance. It has risen through this coronavirus with that down-the-road-risk top of mind,” he added. June 22 - Reuters It’s a daunting and stressful scenario. How much inflation could America expect and what would it mean to household incomes and spending? What industries would be further devastated by this? Is there any way to reverse inflation or is there an upside to it for some? If you are a reporter covering this topic – then let our experts help. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
The road back – how long will it take for America’s economy to recover?
With unemployment at a staggering 14 percent, America’s economy looks as if it is in freefall. With COVID-19 forcing factories to shut down, small businesses to shutter and restaurants to close their doors, there is anxiety at every level of government about when the country’s economy will get back in motion. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to shed 21.5 million and the unemployment rate to go to 16%. April’s unemployment rate topped the post-war record 10.8% but was short of the Great Depression high estimated at 24.9%. The financial crisis peak was 10% in October 2009. The bleak numbers paint a “pretty dismal picture, but April may be it for job losses going forward with the country starting to reopen,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there is a silver-lining in today’s dismal jobs report, it is in the realization that the economy cannot possibly get any worse than it is right now.” CNBC – May 08 Bleak indeed, but there are still many questions to be answered. How long will it take until people are back to work? What industries and businesses are impacted or lost forever? Is there a safe way to get back to work? Are there worries of inflation? And who is paying for all this stimulus funding and bailouts. If you are a journalist covering the economy, let one of our experts help. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Are Home Prices in Peril? FAU Expert Says Coronavirus Stimulus May Hold the Key
The United States housing market faces its biggest threat in more than a decade, and whether home prices can withstand the new coronavirus pandemic largely depends on an effective stimulus package, said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist in Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed a historic $2 trillion stimulus to boost a battered U.S. economy, and getting the aid exactly right is the key to avoiding the first sustained setback to home prices since the end of the housing boom in 2006, according to Johnson. “If the stimulus package ends up being more than we need, this will almost certainly trigger a non-trivial amount of inflation in the economy, which will increase mortgage rates, which, in turn, will place downward pressure on housing prices,” Johnson said. “If the stimulus is not sufficient enough to hold down unemployment and it increases the likelihood of mortgage default, mortgage rates will rise and put downward pressure on housing prices. Only if the stimulus is just right will increasing inflation and higher unemployment be held in check.” Fixed rates for 30-year mortgages rose from 3.29 percent on March 5 to 3.65 percent on March 19, before moving down to 3.5 percent last week as the stimulus gained momentum. The higher rates are an indication that investors are factoring in inflation and the higher likelihood of default, though the recent downward trend suggests that it was the threat of rising default probabilities that was having the bigger impact on mortgage rates, according to Johnson. Since bottoming in March 2012, U.S. home prices rose 61 percent over the next seven and a half years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. The nation’s housing market rebounded from a devastating downturn when investors started renovating and reselling properties after buying them at deep discounts. The market has been robust ever since, but Zillow Group recently suspended its home-buying program as a result of the pandemic and how it may affect the housing market. The move means Zillow is worried that housing prices are at risk, according to Johnson. If mortgage rates were to climb from 3.5 percent to 5 percent, it would result in a 43 percent increase in the interest portion of a housing payment, dramatically reducing the purchasing power for consumers. “Only time will tell here,” Johnson said. “We are in uncharted waters, making it difficult to tell when and if we got the stimulus package right.” If you are a journalist covering how real estate and property values are being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic – then let our experts help. Ken Johnson is the associate dean and Investments Limited professor in the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University. Ken is available to speak to media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview and time.
With Brexit looming, more is unknown than known with British economy, trade agreements
Although it has been in the works since June 2016, the transition phase of Great Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) — more commonly known as “Brexit” — is set to take place on Jan. 31. It is a date that will most likely leave a ripple of economic uncertainty in the United Kingdom in its wake as the British prepare for total independence at the end of the year. “Brexit has created so many new unknown variables. It can be profoundly disruptive to England as we know it today,” says Ralf “Don” Keysser, D.B.A., an associate professor in the MBA program at Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota. Keysser predicts a negative short-term impact to the British economy, whereas the long-term perspective is still hard to predict until new free trade agreements with Europe and the rest of the world are established. Keysser does not see a clear-cut benefit to the U.S. establishing a free trade agreement with the U.K., simply based on the lack of British imports in the American market, other than maintaining political closeness. “It’s going to be a shock to the system. England will not be the England that it has been. There’s a lot of speculation, because we’ve never had a country pull out of the EU before, so it’s kind of an unknown. And it’s so highly politicized that it’s hard to get an objective analysis of what it’s going to look like.” Keysser points to a Toyota plant in South Derbyshire that supplies most of its output to countries in the EU through a tariff-free treatment. With Brexit going into effect, the factory may have to vastly reduce its output. Still, the workers in that community overwhelmingly voted to leave the EU. “This is a good example of how people will vote against their economic self-interests for ideological reasons,” Keysser says. “There’s a lot of ideology behind the Brexit vote: anti-immigrant, anti-Europe, pro-nationalist views that very much echoed President Trump’s appeal.” There are a few reasonably good projections, Keysser says, to make about the impact on inflation, unemployment, and economic trends — and none of them look good for Britain. One just has to look at the British pound, which has steadily been losing value to the dollar and euro over the years. In addition, several banks decided to either move from London or expand into other markets within the EU as soon as the Brexit results were announced, which could cost the British capital its status as of the world’s premier financial centers. “I see a gradual diminution of the financial business that’s been a mainstay of London,” Dr. Keysser says. On top of that, there is a real fear of Scotland and Northern Ireland wanting to leave the U.K. in favor of establishing their own independence and returning to the EU. The last time Scotland voted to leave the U.K. in 2004 it only passed 55% to 45%. “That could be the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom as we have known it,” Keysser says. The news might not be entirely bad out of Brexit. For international tourists, especially those from the U.S may be able to take advantage of the dollar’s exchange rate with the declining pound. Do you want to know more about the possible economic ramifications of Brexit? Are you a journalist covering this topic and interested in an interview? That's where we can help. Ralf Keysser, D.B.A., has been an active investment banker and business finance consultant for 35 years. He also serves an associate professor for the MBA program at Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota. To book an interview with him, simply click on his icon above to access his contact information.
U.S. economy continues to expand, but at a slower pace, reaching about 2 percent growth in 2020
INDIANAPOLIS -- The U.S. economy will continue to expand for a 12th consecutive year in 2020, but by only about 2 percent and struggling to remain at that level by year's end. Indiana's economic output will be more anemic, growing at a rate of about 1.25 percent, according to a forecast released today by the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. Over the past year, political dysfunction and international trade friction have disrupted supply chains and eroded both consumer and business confidence. U.S. employment has grown during 2019 but will decelerate throughout 2020, well short of 150,000 jobs per month and possibly to about 100,000 by year's end. A tight labor market will continue to be an issue for many companies. "The total number of job openings in the economy peaked in late 2018," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "Average hours worked have been flat over the past year, and auto sales have been flat for nearly two years. Given the reliance of the U.S. economy on consumer spending, these are disturbing signs. But they are vague signs, and not enough to convince us that the end of the expansion is in sight. "We expect that growth will be weaker than in the past two years, and this outlook is likely a best-case outcome," he added. "There is massive uncertainty in the current situation." The Kelley School presented its forecast this morning to Indianapolis community and business leaders at IUPUI. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in seven other cities across the state through Nov. 20. Indiana's more meager economic growth expected in 2020 can largely be attributed to the outsized presence of manufacturing and particularly tight labor markets, said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. Manufacturing contracts more rapidly versus other areas of the economy, and tight labor markets limit employers' capacity to grow, he said. Expectations about business investment have fallen short, and corporations have been buying back stock instead of making capital investments. The trade war with China and slowing global expansion have also affected state manufacturers. The world is about to record its slowest economic growth since the financial crisis of 2009. Next year, global growth is projected at 3.4 percent, with downside risks continuing to build. China and the European Union each face structural issues amid tariffs imposed by the United States. Brexit remains unresolved. Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management showed that manufacturing activity has slowed to its lowest rate since the beginning of the Great Recession. Indiana has sought to diversify its economy in recent decades, but manufacturing output represents nearly 28 percent of gross state product. Indiana continues to lead the nation in manufacturing employment, with more than 17 percent of its jobs in that sector. "Constrained by a historically tight labor market, Indiana is expected to experience slow growth in jobs and gross output, along with the possibility for continued rising wages," Brewer said. "With fewer and fewer available people to hire, tightness of the Indiana labor markets will serve as a drag to output and employment growth." The outlook for the Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson metropolitan statistical area is slightly better, with expected growth between 1.5 and 2 percent. "Indianapolis continues to draw in talent and investment that should help it exceed the overall state level of growth," said Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics. "However, there is risk that weakness in the broader economy, and especially weakness in manufacturing, could make this forecast too optimistic." Other highlights from the forecast: The national and state unemployment rates will hold steady. The nation's rate could be below 4 percent by year's end, and the state will stay at or below full employment through 2020. Inflation will rise and end 2020 close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The stock market will struggle to get average returns with headwinds from trade, supply chain disruption and policy uncertainty. Earnings continue to exceed expectations, yet lack of definitive trade consensus continues to drive headwinds. Interest rates will remain low. The 10-year Treasury rate should stay below 2 percent and mortgages below 4 percent. Speculative grade bond yields have been rising, indicating increased risk of insolvency for marginal firms. Entry-level wage growth could cause costs to rise, earnings to fall and growth to stagnate for firms heading into 2020. Energy prices will be relatively stable, with average prices similar to those in 2019. Business investment will remain weak, although a little improved from this year. Housing will achieve a meager increase, ending two years of negative growth. Government spending will grow, but much more slowly than the past year, as the impact of the 2018 budget deal ends. The starting point for the forecast is an econometric model of the United States, developed by IU's Center for Econometric Model Research, which analyzes numerous statistics to develop a national forecast for the coming year. A similar econometric model of Indiana provides a corresponding forecast for the state economy based on the national forecast plus data specific to Indiana. A select panel of Kelley faculty members, led by Indiana Business Research Center co-director Timothy Slaper, then adjusts the forecast to reflect additional insights it has on the economic situation. A detailed report on the outlook for 2020 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. In addition to predictions about the nation, state and Indianapolis, it also will include forecasts for other Indiana cities and key economic sectors. Presenting the forecast at the Indianapolis Business Outlook Tour event were Phil T. Powell, associate dean of Kelley academic programs at Indianapolis and clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy; Cathy Bonser-Neal, associate professor of finance; and Anderson.
Education is a staple in our modern society. The path to success, security and stability often lies in one form or another of post-secondary training, education and higher learning. And though education may be an investment in one’s future – it’s an expensive investment and that has led to some scrutiny. Student debt is in the trillions. Completion rates hover at about 60 percent. Tuition is increasing at twice the rate of inflation. Now there are literally thousands of institutions in America offering higher education. Some are household names and others offer unmatched prestige, learning and success after graduation. But how can they deliver on those promises? At Western Governors University – that answer was one of its first priorities upon opening. “Since Western Governors University enrolled its first student 20 years ago, the university has been data-driven and student-obsessed. We track student progress, retention, completion and satisfaction, and we even poll employers of our graduates to get feedback on graduate preparedness and performance. These metrics help us identify needed innovations and improvements and inform new efforts -- and, while these data have proven useful, we wanted to know more. Gallup has established measures designed to gauge workforce and life outcomes, including employee engagement, wellbeing and emotional attachment to one's university. In addition, Gallup has identified five elements of wellbeing -- career, social, financial, community and physical -- and, based on a series of questions, can determine whether individuals are thriving, struggling or suffering in each element.” May 13 - Gallup Are you a reporter covering higher-ed who might be interested in how schools are delivering for their students after they graduate? If you have questions – let our experts help with your stories. Scott Pulsipher serves as the President of Western Governors University. He is an expert in the areas of higher learning, higher education access and innovation. Scott is available to speak with reporters about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
