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Cheap Energy Can Be a Bridging Fuel Needed to Get to the Endpoint of Renewable Energy Sooner
Far from banning fracking, the Biden/Harris ticket appears to be allowing it if not tacitly supporting it. This is not a contradictory stance to their aggressive renewable energy policy, according to Scott Jackson, a visiting professor of chemical and biological engineering at Villanova University's College of Engineering, who previously directed the microbial enhanced oil recovery program at DuPont Corporation. "Rather, it is recognition that cheap energy—especially natural gas produced as a result of fracking—can be a bridging fuel needed to get to the end point of renewable energy sooner," Jackson says. No one can dispute that the share of our energy coming from less efficient/more polluting coal has dropped dramatically despite the current administration’s attempts at supporting the coal industry. The reason is obvious—cleaner burning energy (less CO2 emissions) from gas fired turbine generators make more economic sense. Gas fired turbine generators are economical at a smaller scale and provides an energy source that can be rapidly turned on or off at any time. This helps to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable energy and, in some sense; this has allowed greater adoption of renewable energy. The cheapest energy source on the planet is land based wind power. The market has responded to this and now renewables make up 19 percent of our electricity. This percentage was thought to be impossible just a few years ago. Wind power energy payback time (time needed to recoup the energy invested) is measured in months and not years, and investors understand this. A much greater share of renewables (wind and solar) is very doable and makes economic sense. Jackson notes that development of cheap energy storage technology will help and must be implemented once economies of scale are achieved, however, a national power grid capable of moving energy from the wind- and sun-rich Midwest to the West Coast and East Coast will improve the reliability of renewables to the point where as much as 70% of our electricity can be sourced renewably—without new storage capacity (2018 study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory). Improvements in battery technologies and economy of scale are starting to drive down the costs of electric transportation and storage. Eventually, natural gas sourced power generation will not be competitive to renewables," notes Jackson. "Despite the current low price of gasoline, in part as a result of fracking used in oil fields, electric cars are far more economical to operate. Companies like BP, Exxon-Mobile and Shell recognize that they are energy companies and are pivoting to more renewable sources of energy. "Ultimately, our government has a responsibility to invest in the technologies of the future that make economic sense—as renewables do—and not support the more costly and outdated fossil fuel industry," says Jackson.
More than just money – what corporate America needs to do to motivate today’s workforce
In a modern workplace no longer characterized by rigid hierarchies and where power is more diffused, traditional methods of motivation may no longer be enough. We have come to understand the value of providing people with ‘intrinsic motivation’ – a sense of purpose, the importance of creative, interesting work, and maintaining work-life balance. We have naturally moved away from a sole dependence on monetary incentives. However, in a New York Times opinion piece, management author Alfie Kohn asserts that “science has confirmed” that monetary rewards amount to “bribes” that don’t work. Somehow this doesn’t ring true. Has science really confirmed this? Would businesses continue to incentivize performance with monetary rewards if they did not work? And aren’t we all, at least to some extent, motivated by money? To understand if Kohn is right, or if there is a more nuanced answer, Karen Sedatole, Professor of Accounting at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School says we need to look at patterns of human behavior. The classical economic theory, which gave us ‘homo economicus,’ assumes people always behave in a rational way and, as with Gordon Gekko in the ‘Wall Street’ movies, selfishness predominates. Findings from psychology and particularly behavioral economics have started to show this to be incorrect. In fact, people tend to make illogical choices contrary to self-interest. Our capacity to think – via a mix of deep reflective thinking and rapid automatic thinking – can lead us to what economists might consider to be irrational behaviors – albeit with the cognitive biases behind our thinking staying mostly predictable. Do monetary incentives work? We all value money, but our perception of its value is influenced by the importance that we also place on reciprocity and fairness, social norms, trust, and trustworthiness. When it comes to monetary rewards for performance the results will also greatly depend on the quality of the performance measures, along with the type of task being rewarded, and the type of reward. Contrary to Kohn’s assertion, Sedatole points out there are many real-world examples that show monetary incentives can deliver big performance and productivity improvements. In fact, if uncontrolled, bonus incentives can be too powerful a motivator, causing damage – as the UK’s PPI and the Wells Fargo mis-selling scandals both firmly attest. There is also strong academic evidence that monetary rewards can have a positive effect, and equally strong evidence that, when over-used, they can elicit bad behavior. Based on relevant academic research in this area, Sedatole identifies four core principles for the use of monetary incentives: Payment for performance can certainly lead to people making a greater effort than when they are rewarded by salary alone, but only if these core principles are followed: 1. Performance targets – Performance targets should be difficult to hit but not too difficult. 2. Performance metrics – The way performance is measured should be sensitive to the employees’ perceptions and sense of control. Employees should believe that their increased effort improves performance, improved performance leads to greater reward, and reward is valued. Metrics must be precise and not prejudiced by external factors. And, from the organization’s perspective, metrics should be set to meet its objectives. 3. Fairness and social norms – Monetary rewards must be seen to be fair and to comply across organizations. They should also conform to social norms. 4. Characteristics of the task – The efficacy of monetary incentives can depend on the nature of the task and to what extent the task provides intrinsic incentives. Here Alfie Kohn has a point; in some cases, monetary rewards tend to undermine intrinsic incentives. ‘Boring’ tasks have little or no intrinsic motivation, whereas creative tasks – the work of a physician, designer, scientist, etc. – are intrinsically motivating. Where there is intrinsic motivation money can be less relevant and in extreme cases can be seen to devalue the intrinsic factors. Professor Sedatole’s recent webinar: ‘Irrational but Predictable! When to Use Monetary Incentives to Motivate Employees’ explains her findings in further details: simply visit it to view and watch for here: If you are journalist covering this topic – Professor Sedatole is available to speak with reporters – simply click on her icon today to arrange an interview.
Let Your Brain Rest: Boredom Can Be Good For Your Health
The human brain is a powerful tool. Always on, the brain is thinking and dealing with decisions and stressors and subconscious activities. But as much as the human brain function has a large capacity, it also has limits. Alicia Walf, a neuroscientist and a senior lecturer in the Department of Cognitive Science at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, says it is critical for brain health to let yourself be bored from time to time. Being bored can improve social connections. When neuroscientists do studies looking at brain activity they often compare what areas are “on” when people do a specific cognitive task and when they are told to do nothing. Remarkably, there is extensive activity in the do nothing part of the experiment. This has led social neuroscientists to discover that we have what is called a default mode network, many brain regions that are on by default, or when we are not doing other things. It also turns out that when we are not busy with other thoughts and activities, we focus inward as well as on social interactions. Being bored can help foster creativity. Many scientists and artists have reported being inspired or solving a complex problem when they have actually stopped thinking about it. This eureka moment is called insight. Neuroscientists have shown different patterns of brain activity when people solve problems compared to by working through them step-by-step. Even the ancient Greek Archimedes is known to come up with his major finding relating to displacement of water while taking a bath. Additionally, being bored can improve overall brain health. During exciting times, the brain releases a chemical called dopamine which is associated with feeling good. When the brain has fallen into a predictable, monotonous pattern, many people feel bored, even depressed. This might be because we have lower levels of dopamine. One approach is to retrain the brain to actually enjoy these less exciting, and perhaps boring, times. Especially when we are young, our brains are able to adapt to new ways to think and behave. “Give boredom a try and see what your brain comes up with,” says Walf.
A New Kind of "Zoom" Science Lesson
With the end of the school year just around the corner and numerous COVID-19 restrictions still in place for the foreseeable future, many parents are worried. Summer camps in Pennsylvania are beginning to open—but with limited capacity. So, what are working caretakers to do with their kids all day? Villanova University professor of chemistry Marta Guron, PhD, and six of her students have created informative science lessons that bring learning and fun together in a virtual environment. In a typical year, Dr. Guron gathers a group together who volunteer their time by visiting local elementary schools to perform hands-on science experiments with fourth-graders, fifth-graders and sixth-graders. When in-person lessons were no longer an option due to the pandemic, the Villanovans adapted their strategy. Though finals are over and Villanova's campus remains empty, six dedicated undergraduate and graduate students are still finding time to go virtual with their lessons. In the following video, Dr. Guron and the Villanova students use PowerPoint, plastic containers, water and their choice of "solids" to talk about density. The supplies for this outreach program are typically provided by Villanova, but in light of everyone being "stuck at home," Dr. Guron encouraged the grade school students to experiment. "If there is something that you don't have at home, it's OK to try to replace different things. For example, some students, when they added different solids, they might have added a penny or a piece of wood. But others might have a bead or something else. It doesn't... much matter." She adds, "Please make sure you talk to your mom and dad before you take anything out!" Some other experiments the team has done include assessing symmetry in crystals, making the gooey, Double Dare-inspired "gak," building a fruit battery, investigating sound and studying capillary action in flowers. Dr. Guron is grateful that her students were still interested in the project, even after the end of a particularly unusual semester. "I thought it was awesome that these students all volunteered time and effort after their final exams were over because of their dedication to the program and to the kids. We are truly a community of helpers."
Whistle stops or Zoom chats – What will a campaign for the 2020 election look like?
The race for 2020 is on. President Donald Trump has already scheduled his first rally in the very red-leaning Oklahoma whereas Joe Biden has been conducting digital town-halls and online events in his effort to reach voters. Campaigning for president is a billion-dollar ordeal. It usually means months and months on the road; a different message being brought to a different audience and usually in a different state each night from August until November. For President Trump, it seems he’s charging, head down – despite what many critics and officials have to say. Yet Trump has continued to travel — even to states that still have restrictions — and announced this week that he’ll resume his signature campaign rallies beginning next Friday in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The state, which was among the earliest to begin loosening coronavirus restrictions, has a relatively low rate of infection but has seen cases rising. “They’ve done a great job with COVID, as you know, the state of Oklahoma,” Trump said Wednesday. Campaign officials chose the location knowing Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt would raise no objections. Stitt’s most recent reopening phase places no limits on the size of group gatherings. The campaign hopes the location will all but guarantee a large crowd, since Oklahoma is one of the most Republican states in the nation and Trump has never held a rally there as president. Still, the reality could not be completely ignored. “By clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to COVID-19 exists in any public place where people are present,” Trump’s campaign advised those signing up for the rally. “By attending the Rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.” liable for illness or injury. Trump is also planning events in Arizona and Florida — states where cases are on the upswing. In Arizona, hospitals have been told to prepare for the worst as hospitalizations have surged. Trump this month decided that he would no longer hold the marquee event of the Republican National Convention —- his acceptance speech — in North Carolina after the state refused to guarantee that he could fill an arena to capacity with maskless supporters. It’s being moved to Jacksonville, Florida. June 12 – Associated Press But as the Trump campaign seems to be sticking to the old school playbook – what will the Democrats do? Can campaigning on-line be effective? Do voters really need to see a person and shake a hand to make a decision who to vote for? Is it better to be safe or sorry when there is so much at stake? If you are covering – then let our experts help with your questions and stories. Mark Caleb Smith is the Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. Mark is available to speak with media regarding the DNC Primary, running mates and the upcoming election. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Forecasting demand of any product for industry, manufacturing and even retail is already a difficult task. And now, amid a global pandemic that has seen some industries grind to a halt while others ramp up to keep up - means that measuring expectations about demand is key to corporate survival during these trying times. We have not experienced a global pandemic like the coronavirus in last 100 years. The sheer increase in demand for everyday necessities like toilet paper, sanitary wipes and bottled water is putting undo stress on a lean global supply chain. It is testing the agility of many retailers and consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies as they attempt to ramp up manufacturing facilities and logistical operations while struggling to keep up with consumer demand. Business executives are looking to data, analytics, and technology for answers on how to predict and plan for the surge and, ultimately, the decline in consumer demand. It is significantly easier to shut down facilities than it is to quickly boost production and capacity. The biggest unknown is whether there will be a delayed economic recovery or a prolonged contraction. Regardless of the outcome, retailers and their CPG suppliers will need to think ahead and be prepared to act quickly. March 25 – RIS News There are so many angles and aspects of our daily life that need to be covered during the COVID-19 outbreak – and if you are a journalist looking at how business and industry are adapting during this crisis, the let our experts help. Dr. Karen Sedatole is the Goizueta Advisory Board Term Professor of Accounting. She has conducted extensive research on forecasting and capacity management that can shed light on the challenges of responding to the current uncertain environment. Karen is available to speak with media – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview today.
As the global pandemic touches almost all parts of the United States – it is essential that the public receives only accurate and definitive information from credible and expert sources as news, media and information reaches million of people across the country. An invisible enemy is killing thousands and forcing people worldwide to cower behind closed doors. Unfounded conspiracy theories and miracle “cures” abound on social media. Politicians and pundits send mixed messages about how to protect yourself. Who you gonna call? - Bedford Gazette, April 14 As the coronavirus rampages, the public increasingly is turning to experts in academia and government -- the educated, experienced “elites” that many Americans had tuned out. The Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) situation is certainly new to all of us. As guidance from the CDC changes and instructional methods transition, there are experts at Georgia Southern who can help to answer questions such as: How should we best address this pandemic as a nation? How should we best address this pandemic individually? What does it mean to “flatten the curve?" What is the economic impact of COVID-19? How do you best manage employees virtually? Why are grocery stores having trouble keeping inventory on their shelves? Should we prepare for a lapse in groceries and goods? What contributes to the fear and panic in disasters and pandemics? What do educators, parents and students need to know to prepare for online learning in the K-12 and college settings? If you are a reporter covering COVID-19, let the team of experts from Georgia Southern help with your coverage. Public Health: Atin Adhikari, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Adhikari brings over 15 years of extensive research experience on aerosols, airborne microorganisms, other air pollutants, and related respiratory disorders. His current research areas include environmental air quality, exposure assessment, occupational health and safety, environmental microbiology, and respiratory health. Before joining JPHCOPH, Dr. Adhikari was also involved (Co-I) with two DoD-DTRA and U.S. Office of Naval Research funded projects on inactivation of hazardous microorganisms. Chun Hai (Isaac) Fung, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung is a digital health expert and an infectious disease epidemiologist. He analyses social media data for public health surveillance and health communication and uses digital technologies for public health interventions. He investigates the transmission of communicable diseases with a focus on respiratory infections and environmentally transmitted infections. He applied a variety of methods, from classical statistical methods to machine learning and mathematical modeling, to address public health problems and to provide solutions to policy-makers. He is especially interested in assisting public health agencies in their responses to public health emergencies. He is currently a guest researcher with the Health Economics and Modeling Unit, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Examples of his recent projects include: Surveillance of unplanned school closures through social media platforms, Analysis of social media posts pertinent to public health emergencies, such as Ebola, MERS and Zika. Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Pandemics, panic and the public: Amy Ballagh, Ed.D. Associate Vice President of Enrollment Management Featured in the Washington Post : Jessica Schwind, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health Dr. Jessica Smith Schwind is an epidemiologist and program evaluator. She joined the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences at JPHCOPH in August 2017. Her current research interests include disease surveillance, capacity building and risk communication for the prevention and/or early recognition of outbreaks with a focus on: best practices for operationalizing the ‘One Health’ approach, understanding and improving capacity building efforts and priorities for increasing health surveillance, and improving early warning systems for disease detection and response by bridging the gap between global digital databases and local health information. Schwind also conducts SoTL research on innovative online/onsite teaching and evaluation with a focus on immersive and service-learning practices. Jodi Caldwell, Ph.D. Executive Director of the Georgia Southern University Counseling Center On a national level, Dr. Caldwell is currently serving her second elected term to the Directorate Board of the Commission for Counseling and Psychological Services of the American College Personnel Association and is a certified Red Cross Disaster Mental Health Responder. COVID-19 and logistics, the economy and the workforce: Alan Mackelprang, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Currently the director of the Ph.D. in Logistics and Supply Chain Management program, his research interests include examining interdependencies among supply chain partners, JIT/Lean production, manufacturing flexibility as well as supply chain integration. Scott Ellis, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Logistics & Supply Chain Management Scott Ellis’ research interests center on the study of purchasing and supply management processes and functions. He has published in Journal of Operations Management and Journal of Supply Chain Management, among others. Richard McGrath, Ph.D. Professor, Parker College of Business Richard McGrath researches immigration, consumer survey methodology, and applied microeconomics. He is a long time expert on the economy in Savannah and the Coastal Empire. Michael Toma, Ph.D. Fuller E. Callaway Professor of Economics Michael Toma is a professor and lead analyst for the Center for Business Analytics and Economic Research, a student- and faculty-staffed applied research group focused on the Savannah-area economy that works with many local partners on special initiatives, customized applied business research and impact studies. Based on Toma's analytics, the Center publishes the quarterly Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, a closely watched economic report. Toma's community ties are also strong in the area. He serves on the Board of Directors for United Way of the Coastal Empire and on the organization's Executive Committee as chair of the Community Investments Committee. David Sikora, Ph.D. Assistant professor of management David Sikora’s research interests include strategic human resource management and the business impact of employee management practices. He has published his research in such journals as the Journal of Applied Psychology, Leadership Quarterly, Human Resources Management Review, International Journal of Selection and Assessment, and International Journal of Human Resources Development and Management. Prior to his academic career, David had extensive corporate experience in human resources and marketing including serving as human resources vice president at Cigna Corporation and director of human resources product management at Gevity HR, Incorporated. Steven Charlier, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Management Charlier’s research interests are focused on the modern work environment, and include virtual teams, e-learning, leadership in a virtual world, and management education. His work has been published in several leading international academic journals, including The Leadership Quarterly, Human Resource Management, Journal of Organizational Behavior, Academy of Management Learning & Education, and Human Resource Management Review. Online teaching and learning: Charles Hodges, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development Hodges is a tenured professor of instructional technology at Georgia Southern with over 20 years of online teaching experience. As an active researcher in online teaching and learning, Hodges presents regularly at the national and international levels. He currently serves as the editor-in-chief of the journal and he is a long-time member of the Association for Educational Communications and Technologies, a professional organization for Educational Technology scholars and practitioners. Featured in the Inside Higher Ed article (published 3/11/20): Jeffrey Tysinger, Ph.D. and Dawn Tysinger, Ph.D. Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning Professors, Department of Leadership, Technology and Human Development The Tysingers are one of very few individuals who are actively researching in the area of crisis preparedness in K-12 online learning: o https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/nyar/vol2/iss1/4/ o https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2811036.2811057 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=EJ1147626 o https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Tysinger&id=ED595756 Dawn Tysinger, NCSP, serves as professor and program director for the nationally-recognized, National Association of School Psychologists-Approved Education Specialist program in school psychology at Georgia Southern University. Tysinger has contributed to her field through active participation in NASP, publications in school psychology journals, and presentations at the local, state, regional, national, and international levels. She currently serves on the NASP program review board for school psychology programs and as a member of the editorial boards of Journal of School Psychology, Psychology in the Schools, Trainers’ Forum: Journal of the Trainers of School Psychologists, National Youth-At-Risk Journal and Journal of Online Learning Research. Jeff Tysinger, NCSP, is a professor of school psychology at Georgia Southern University. He has been the president of the Kansas Association of School Psychologists (KASP), editor of the KASP Newsletter, KASP Futures committee member, KASP NCSP committee member, member of National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) since 1997, Nationally Certified School Psychologist since 1997, NASP Program Reviewer, NCSP Portfolio Reviewer, member of NCATE Board of Examiners, member of Georgia Association of School For parents at home with (k-12) children now distance learning: Chelda Smith Associate Professor, Department of Elementary and Special Education Smith’s master's thesis focused on parents as the first teachers of children and can speak to how parents can be empowered in that role. Her research agenda continues to focus on home and community assets, of which parents/caregivers are the primary influence and factor for positive outcomes. Lastly, as a parent of both a middle schooler and a toddler, Smith is navigating the process of being a primary educator in the home in real-time. Each expert is available to speak with media – simply contact Melanie Simon at 912.313.3245 to arrange an interview today.
Think that call or online meeting is secure? You might want to ask an expert first?
As most of North America is now working from home, those trying to work are now finding board rooms and those always required meeting are now taking place online. Whether it is Webex, Zoom, Join.Me, Skype or even FaceTime – the convenience is ideal. But just how secure those calls are and whether or not someone is collecting, eavesdropping or recording might be altogether completely different. From Zoom’s CEO Eric Yuan: During normal operations, Zoom clients attempt to connect to a series of primary datacenters in or near a user’s region, and if those multiple connection attempts fail due to network congestion or other issues, clients will reach out to two secondary datacenters off of a list of several secondary datacenters as a potential backup bridge to the Zoom platform. In all instances, Zoom clients are provided with a list of datacenters appropriate to their region. This system is critical to Zoom’s trademark reliability, particularly during times of massive internet stress.” In other words, North American calls are supposed to stay in North America, just as European calls are supposed to stay in Europe. This is what Zoom calls its data center “geofencing.” But when traffic spikes, the network shifts traffic to the nearest data center with the most available capacity. China, however, is supposed to be an exception, largely due to privacy concerns among Western companies. But China’s own laws and regulations mandate that companies operating on the mainland must keep citizens’ data within its borders. April 03 - TechCrunch If you’re a journalist covering this topic, there’s still quite a few questions to be asked? What do users need to know about these platforms for meetings? Is there any information that shouldn’t be shared? Are there ways to guarantee enhanced security? And in these extraordinary times, does the risk outweigh the reward for businesses looking to carry on and stay afloat? If you’re asking – we’re here to help. Yoris A. Au is chair of the Department of Information Systems at Georgia Southern University. He is an expert in the areas of cyber security and telecommunications. Yoris is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
The consequences of ending early - Is a second wave of COVID-19 inevitable?
America is in lockdown. As the COVID-19 virus spreads to just about every corner of America and the planet for that matter, extreme measures are being brought in by various levels of local, state and the federal government to help contain the spread of this virus that is growing in near exponential numbers daily. Despite the White House advising all Americans to practice social distancing, the number of coronavirus cases in the US continues to rise. So, governors across the nation are taking stronger action by issuing stay-at-home orders in their states. By March 30, at least 27 states will have those orders in effect. Those states contain more than 225 million people -- more than two-thirds of the country's population. CNN - March 28 And as Americans comply with these orders, there’s a growing anticipation about when people will be able to return to work and resume a semi-normal routine. Some are saying weeks, others indicating months. But the reality is, as much as many yearn for normalcy, going back too early could come with even steeper consequences than waiting the epidemic out. If there is a second wave of COVID-19 infections – it could be disastrous. What would a second wave look like and how would it spread? Can people be re-infected? Does America have the front-line capacity to take on another fresh round of infections? Can the country’s stretched medical system handle more patients? And how much longer would it take to try and contain the spread of COVID-19 for a second time? There are a lot of questions to be answered, and that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Zach Jenkins is an infectious disease expert at Cedarville University. He is available to speak with media about this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
