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What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada?
What's Next for the Telecom Industry in Canada? The global COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially impact the Canadian telecommunications services market producing negative growth in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. IDC Canada expects that the telecom services market will contract by almost C$2 billion with the overall revenue expected to fall to C$47.9 billion – a negative -0.8 per cent decline from a year earlier. As recently as December 2019, we had projected positive 3.2 per cent annual growth for the sector in 2020. By comparison, IT spending in Canada is expected to decline by -5.0 per cent in 2020, according to IDC Canada's most recent forecast estimate. Canadian Total Telecom Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down to -0.8% from 3.2% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Forecast Scenario Compared to Canada's IT market, the C$48-billion-dollar telecom services sector has been historically more resilient or “recession-proof,” said Lawrence Surtees , Research Vice-President of Communications at IDC Canada. Even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, telecom services retained positive annual growth. A decade later, telecom services have become further insulated to crisis as consumers and enterprises are more dependent on these services, especially internet and wireless. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for the second and third quarters of 2020. The recent composite quarterly GDP forecasts of the five major banks, which is one input underlying IDC Canada's telecom and IT forecast scenarios, now show a steeper quarterly decline than all other recent economic downturns, including the financial crisis of 2008-09, the 1990-1992 contraction and the 1981-1982 recession. "The impact of the COVID-19 crisis represents the most significant deceleration in ICT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time" said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. IDC Canada developed three forecast scenarios (optimistic, probable, and pessimistic). "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario, which appears very unlikely, assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3” said Tony Olvet , Group Vice-President Research, at IDC Canada. “Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4." Mandatory self-isolation and social distancing has led to double-digit growth in the number of people working from home and restrictions on business travel has made telecom services of even greater strategic importance to all consumers and enterprises. However, we anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic will have a greater negative impact on the Canadian telecom sector than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, due to massive layoffs and challenges for small and medium businesses that will lead to projected business failures. Hence, we anticipate telecom revenue to decline into negative growth for both our probable and pessimistic scenarios. In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian telecom spending to decline to -0.8% in constant currency this year, down from our previous forecast of 3.2% growth published at the end of 2019. The greatest adverse impact on telecom spending forecasts is the projected number of business failures. Small business, of which there are almost one million firms in Canada, are the hardest hit. And several vertical segments are worse off, including airline transportation, energy, manufacturing and hospitality. IDC Canada will summarize these specific impacts in our forthcoming annual five-year forecast report. In the current pessimistic scenario, IDC Canada expects telecom spending to record a ‑2.0 per cent decline to C$47.2 billion in 2020. While it is easy to be distracted by the slightly higher forecast growth rate in 2021, it is worth noting that we estimate revenue from the four primary markets—wireline voice, data, internet and wireless – will contract by almost C$2 billion under our probable scenario for 2020, compared to our previous forecast. Although we predict all telecom market segments will show reduced revenue from the previous forecast, some positive factors will moderate the downturn such as the exploding need for conferencing, remote collaboration and increased broadband access. Our new probable outlook predicts the wireline voice and enterprise data communications segments to be the hardest hit: - Wireline voice, which has been a shrinking market, remains the worst-performing segment under all scenarios because of continued wireless and internet substitution. Consumer and enterprise responses to the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate cost-saving measures such as cord-cutting for some consumers and due to business failures. However, the formerly lackluster in the interim from burgeoning double-digit growth of toll-free long-distance use for conferencing. - Data wide area networking (WAN) services are essential for larger enterprises and are subscribed to on long-term contracts, so this segment is less likely to be affected by temporary events but it’s also most susceptible to business failures. The different growth rates among the three scenarios differ mainly on the number of businesses that are anticipated to fail to recover due to COVID-19 shutdowns. - Internet will be one of the most insulated markets during this pandemic crisis as broadband access has become a greater necessity with many people working from home, students taking online lessons, and families being entertained at home. Network providers are experiencing an unprecedented increase in bandwidth/data consumption since the first day of mandatory work-from-home restrictions. However, higher usage does not translate directly to revenue growth due to elimination or expansion of data caps currently provided as temporary relief by most major Canadian Service Providers (ISPs). To meet increased network capacity needs, Canadian ISPs are upgrading their networks to increase available network bandwidth. The costs for this expansion will need to be recovered in 2021. In fact, some smaller ISPs have already served notice that they will still raise monthly prices later this Spring due to increased telecom wholesale costs to manage increased network load. - Wireless services, which account for almost one-half of telecom revenue in Canada, remain essential especially to customers whose wireless devices are the only means of communication with coworkers, friends and family. However, stringent travel restrictions between Canada and the rest of the world has put an immediate halt to roaming revenue. The loss of roaming revenue will increase as the lock-down persists. The rollout of initial 5G wireless services at the end of this year, however, may help providers to recover some of their costs associated with the pandemic. We expect the telecom market to get back on track in 2021 provided most businesses return to normal, people return to work, and consumer confidence recovers. However, the duration of the pandemic crisis poses the greatest uncertainty and will impact the magnitude of its economic and social affects. As containment measures have not yet halted the spread of COVID-19 and the number of people infected with the virus continues to expand exponentially, the downside risks in forecast models increase almost daily. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian ICT market fully," said Nigel Wallis, Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. Recent announcements that senior federal and provincial government officials anticipate that the quarantine efforts such as school closings and bans on group gatherings will continue until late June means that IDC Canada's optimistic scenario is now unlikely. IDC Canada has extended out the probable scenario by a few weeks – and noted a possible second wave of recurring infections through the third quarter of 2020. GDP and affiliated macro-economic markers have had equivalent reductions. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow," said Meng Cong, Manager, Market Insights & Analytics, at IDC Canada. "Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." IDC Canada's team will continue to closely monitor the reaction of the ICT markets to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios; and forecast scenario revisions. If you are interested in knowing more about this topic, please register now to watch IDC Canada’s Complimentary Webcast, COVID-19 Impact on the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
COVID-19 and a sustainable transition
As the COVID-19 pandemic touches almost every aspect of society, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the slowdowns and shutdowns may inadvertently enable us to shape a new conception of prosperity and good livelihood. What has the global slowdown meant for the environment and sustainable living, and what could it mean if some of the radical changes in our everyday lifestyles and consumption habits persisted long-term? As Maurie Cohen, professor in New Jersey Institute of Technology's department of humanities, explains, "Since we are all living through this unique moment, observing the responses by government, businesses and ordinary people, it marks an opportune time to explore if these changes can provide leverage points for opening pathways to a sustainability transition." The topic attracted a diverse group of scientists, economists, educators and hundreds more around the world virtually during a live webinar titled, “COVID-19 Can Help Wealthier Nations Prepare for a Sustainability Transition.” The open forum-style event, organized by researchers from the international sustainability organization FutureEarth, set up an online discussion on the major global sustainability trends and issues that have evolved in recent months alongside the coronavirus outbreak. Read more: Cohen is available to speak with media directly on issues related to COVID-19 and sustainability. To arrange an interview, click on the button below.
Dance From Home: Performance-Based Classes in a Distance-Learning World
The sudden switch to online-only courses has left many educators aching to provide their students with just as full a learning experience as they would have in the classroom. Uncertainties about technology and internet access are now ubiquitous in the education sphere, but those teaching classes with a performance element have something else to consider. "I think the performance classes have a particular challenge in all this," says Bess Rowen, PhD, who made changes to her "Creativity" course. "The syllabus called for them to bring in poems that inspired them. The original assignment was supposed to be to break up into small groups and make your poems into a brief performance piece with movement and sound." Obviously, with all of Dr. Rowen's students practicing social distancing, they were unable to meet up. Instead, they created virtual performance pieces that they acted out for their classmates over Zoom. Dr. Rowen reported, "The results were awesome! Some had repeated themes; others used images, musical cues or gestures. Some included found images, others made images themselves and still others used live action. I was really pleased with the results!" Barby Hobyak-Roche is a professor of dance, and her concerns also involved the lack of ability to be in a physical space together. She's "missing [her students'] energy and movement and personalities and expression. Virtual connection is a gift- yet dance and theater are experiential. A living, present art form and language. I miss them and I can see in their eyes (on the screen and their video submissions) that they are working to adjust. All of us are." According to Hobyak-Roche the key to that adjustment is, ironically for a dancer, "flexibility." She's had to adjust both her syllabus and the dance moves themselves. "I have completely shifted choreography. I am not overloading them with too much at once. I began with just having them establish new patterns... setting up the YouTube account, re-learning and submitting already learned movement. [It's hard] for them without the rest of us there to feel each other's energy—or for me to respond to their physical needs in real time, in the same room." Additionally for Professor Hobyak-Roche, "This transition for my courses goes beyond just becoming online at the moment—many of my students are in bedrooms, in kitchens, in garages, basements, outside... some of them in very tight quarters. They are dealing with both a computer screen instead of human contact in a class environment and tight physical space. I teach at a dance studio as well and am taking cues as to what works (or doesn't work) online from my experienced dancers there (and from watching my fellow dancers and educators in classes because we are all figuring this out together). My students who have not trained before need things pulled way back—both because they are still, essentially, mostly beginners, but also have no space to move in. I need to be aware of the floor they are on, that they may not be able to extend fully… lots of shifts!" The most important takeaway? "If they need things simplified or adjusted right now or me to be more lenient about expectations... that is a given in my eyes."
Precautionary Buying During a Disaster Can Create Other Challenges
After many stores sold out of necessities like toilet paper, paper towels, masks, cleaning products, and hand sanitizer, retailers across the United States are implementing purchasing limits on certain items as governmental leaders urge citizens to pace their buying habits during the COVID-19 pandemic. José Holguín-Veras, an endowed professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and director of the Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment, has studied this type of precautionary buying that happens before and after a disaster. These purchases are a natural human reaction to concern over potential shortages, but Holguín-Veras says they can also be problematic. After the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami disasters in Japan in 2011, Holguín-Veras found that demand for goods doubled. Following Superstorm Sandy, he learned that this type of demand removed critical supplies from the local area, delaying response as products had to come from further away. Holguín-Veras is available to speak about how this logistical stress can affect the overall disaster response, as well as initiatives that could lessen that impact including: agreements with key private-sector vendors to ensure critical supplies, campaigns to educate the public, and rationing and demand-management policies.
Baylor Expert on Remote Work Shares 5 Key Tips to Make the Most of Working from Home
The international response to the COVID-19 public health crisis has led millions of workers to make home their new office as communities and organizations promote social distancing to slow the spread of the virus. For many individuals, this spring marks the first time they will have worked from home for a substantial amount of time. Sara Perry, Ph.D., assistant professor of management in Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, an internationally-recognized remote work researcher and author of a 2018 study published in the European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, offers tips in five key areas for employees to consider as they make the most of working from home. “Research has given us some good empirical evidence of key areas that will help remote work be more successful,” Perry said. Create a physical work space. Perry: If it’s possible, we have to have a separate working space, especially if you can close the door to focus. This would be ideal, but if you can't do that, try setting up different workspaces around your home that are well-defined and that you can “close” at the end of the day to help maintain a balance in terms of your family and your work. Now, if you have kids in the mix as well, then I think we need to set up a workstation for them as well. It can be the kitchen table or the bar. Younger kids can have stations of their own, too – like the stations they would have in preschool. Some people even talk about making a standing desk with books, to be able to move your position throughout the day. Everyone in the family might even like to rotate around throughout the day, sharing the different work spaces. Think about how you can work outside, too, weather permitting. Adhere to a work schedule – and take breaks. Perry: We aren't going to have clear boundaries of time. We're going to have to make them. The best thing to do is to start with a schedule similar to what you would already be doing if you went to work. If you can try to stick close to the same schedule, you're going to find the transition easier. Don't start sleeping in and doing things completely differently — that will make the adjustment a lot harder. Take breaks. Research by my colleagues Emily Hunter and Cindy Wu found that optimal breaks come mid-morning, and it can set you up for the rest of the day. It’s important to get up and move away from the screen periodically. A short break can help preserve your focus and attention resources for the rest of the day. For your further well-being, you will need to turn work off at the end of the day, because no one is going to shut it off for you. Pick a way that you're going to do that, whether it's to put your stuff away, or by planning some sort of transition time that would replace what your commute would have done. Some people will call someone or listen to a podcast. For others, or a walk around the neighborhood provides something to transition and decompress. Think about what you would normally do (or want to do) and see if you can work that in for your own transition from work to family time. Connect with others. Perry: The change in physical environment is going to be a big change even for people who are used to working remotely. At work, you may feel a sense of connection to people even if you don’t even talk to them. You at least have their presence, and we’re going to miss that in the coming weeks. One of the biggest concerns in the remote work literature is isolation, and while individuals who have families at home might not feel isolated from people in general, we might feel isolated from our professional lives and identity. We’ll have to be more proactive about using technology in a way to stay connected while still remaining productive. We don’t want to have virtual meetings for the sake of meetings, but we might want to have some for the sake of connection. For leaders, check in and make sure people have resources and that they are doing okay as we all adapt to a virtual workspace. Try to be proactive about it. Maybe we have a video call simply to check in for 30 minutes at the end of the day or whenever, just try to stay connected. Help children and family adjust. Perry: With my children, I’m thinking about how to create some type of structure, taking lessons from our homeschool friends about how they set up their day. I’ve found that my children and my friends’ children get excited about reconstructing their own schedule from school at home. So, let them have some input about what their day should look like, and try to work your schedule in tandem or in parallel with that. Scheduling loose blocks of time for tasks throughout the day can help with this, too. Blocking off time can help you communicate, “for the next 30 minutes or the next hour, we’re all going to work on this activity at our separate stations, then meet and redirect. We know it's possible because a lot of schools have a model where students are self-directed. You give them direction and then they go do it. However, we also don’t want to over-schedule, or over-do anything. We need to enjoy the time that we have with them, and be grateful for that, and practice gratitude daily as we try to manage all of this.” Manage expectations. Perry: In light of everything that we're facing, it’s important to stay flexible. That’s true for leaders—really try to have flexibility and allow your employees to figure out how remote work best works for them. We can't micromanage from afar. We can check in, make sure everyone has resources, make sure people are doing OK. Some people need a little more of that than others, but we really need to just adapt and be flexible. It’s important that everyone should try to be realistic, be clear with expectations, but also try to be realistic about what's actually going to happen over the next several weeks. All of us are under a lot of stress, more stress than normal. So, we just have to have realistic expectations and recognize that all of us, and our leaders, are experiencing a learning curve. We need to think about the big picture as we roll this out, and really keep employee wellbeing as the number one consideration. Note: This interview is adapted from Dr. Perry’s interview on the Baylor Connections podcast. Visit the Baylor Connections website to listen to the full interview. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 18,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT HANKAMER SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY At Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business, integrity stands shoulder-to-shoulder with analytic and strategic strengths. The School’s top-ranked programs combine rigorous classroom learning, hands-on experience in the real world, a solid foundation in Christian values and a global outlook. Making up approximately 25 percent of the University’s total enrollment, undergraduate students choose from 16 major areas of study. Graduate students choose from full-time, executive or online MBA or other specialized master’s programs, and Ph.D. programs in Information Systems, Entrepreneurship or Health Services Research. The Business School also has campuses located in Austin and Dallas, Texas. Visit www.baylor.edu/business and follow on Twitter at twitter.com/Baylor_Business.
What are IDC's Tech Insights on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian Market?
Dear Member of the IDC Canada Community, As we all adapt to this ever changing environment, our Canadian team has been working behind the scenes analyzing the COVID-19 impact on the Canadian ICT market. This email provides you with tech insights, including updates on market outlook and further resources to help you make critical business decisions in the weeks and months ahead. Canadian Total IT Spending Growth for 2020 Revised Down from 2.4% to -5.0% in the Most Probable IDC Canada Research Scenario The coronavirus outbreak across the world and the necessary containment measures put in place by governments will substantially affect the Canadian IT markets, severely accelerating the impact already felt from the supply-driven effects from Asia. In this extremely fluid scenario, International Data Corporation (IDC) now expects to see a significant slowdown in technology spending in 2020 across Canadian organizations, with IT spending expected to decline by -5.0%. As recently as December 2019, we were projecting a positive 2.4% growth rate for 2020. However, with new stringent containment and lockdown measures in place across Canada, resulting in a rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, GDP forecasts have recently been revised down sharply for Q2 and Q3. "Technology vendors and buyers are rapidly adapting to the disruption and the extremely fast-moving market conditions," said Nigel Wallis , Research VP, IoT & Industries at IDC Canada. "In such a rapidly changing environment, it is still too early to assess the overall impact on the Canadian IT market fully. However, given the sharp economic contraction, IDC recommends that all technology leaders recalibrate their strategies." IDC Canada has developed three scenarios to help technology providers and buyers with their short-term business and technology investment planning. "The probable scenario assumes the coronavirus is broadly contained by June. The optimistic scenario assumes the virus is more rapidly contained, and business and investments recover quickly and accelerate in Q3. Finally, a pessimistic scenario that considers a less controlled, longer-lasting, virus 'rebound' effect through Q3 and Q4," said Tony Olvet , GVP Research, at IDC Canada. A Probable Scenario Depicting a Decline In the most probable scenario, IDC projects Canadian IT spending to decline by -5.0% in constant currency terms this year, down from the 2.4% forecast published at the end of 2019. "When taking a broad historical view of Canadian IT spending across the past decade, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis is expected to exceed the levels of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. As such, it does represent the most significant deceleration in IT spending growth Canada has experienced in modern time," said Lars Goransson, Managing Director at IDC Canada. As restrictions of movement bite, supply-chain disruption becomes commonplace, and demand drops, Canadian IT spending will drop rapidly in Q2. Particularly manufacturing, personal and consumer services, transportation, and hospitality will be sharply curbed, as these industries are the most exposed to the COVID-19 crisis impact in the short-, mid-, and long-term view. At the same time, other sectors, such as healthcare and government, will be forced to accelerate investments significantly. IDC expects this will drive additional IT investments for the public sector, pushing hard on infrastructure and collaboration tools deployments, but not before the second half of 2020." In the most pessimistic scenario, IDC expects ICT spending to drop and record a –8.2% decline in 2020, with all technology domains showing negative trends for the remaining part of the year. A series of domino effects, including oil price changes, currency depreciation, the inability of governments to make timely payments, delays in the supply chains and significant lay-offs would lead to a much more dramatic impact on the overall ICT market and an exponential increase in the downside risk in IDC's market forecast assumptions. The new outlook is shaped primarily by lower expectations in the hardware and services markets: Hardware markets will suffer due to restriction measures hampering supply and overall reduced demand. Client Devices are particularly hit hard, initially because of supply constraints and in later quarters as reduced demand further erode growth. The most significant impact on the IT services industry will be a result of businesses postponing decisions on pending projects and slowing the execution of projects in the delivery phase. Spending reductions on the software and telecoms markets are less pronounced, and some positive factors are expected to moderate the natural downturn somewhat. While the decrease in hardware spending will also negatively impact the overall software market to a degree, difficulties prompted by COVID-19 across industries will impact total telecommunication spending (this will be examined in forthcoming IDC Canada research). At the same time, the increasing need for remote collaboration will push telecom services demand and drive new opportunities in the collaborative applications and platforms areas, as well as an increase in security technologies that enable them. The pre-existing digital maturity of industries will also be a factor impacting on their capacity to invest in technologies, regardless of their budget capabilities. Limited face-to-face business relationships between vendors and end-users will inevitably also reduce investment in significant digital transformation projects in less mature industries, and especially for projects involving more advanced technologies. Social distancing and provincial lock downs (the duration is hard to predict) will also have significant consequences on the purchasing options for many consumers. Additional factors weighing on investment will range from a decrease in customer demand to supply chains breaking up," said Meng Cong , Manager, Market Insights & Analytics at IDC Canada. "Nevertheless, there are areas in which spending will grow. In use cases such as patient care as well as customer, citizen, student or employee experience and proximity, we expect to see accelerated adoption of digital solutions. Specific solutions such as videoconferencing, intelligent supply, chatbots, and e-learning platforms, among others, highlight how technology can help businesses and societies address these new challenges." Register for our Complimentary Webcast Now On-Demand IDC's Canadian team is closely monitoring the evolution of the ICT market and its reaction to the coronavirus crisis through multiple research initiatives: this includes monthly surveys to poll Canadian digital leaders on their organizations' digital investment plans in light of COVID-19 scenarios. If you are interested in knowing more about this, please register for the IDC Canada Complimentary Webcast COVID-19 Impact in the Canadian Technology Market. To learn more about what to expect in the months ahead and what organizations should do in response to this market turmoil, please visit www.idc.com/ca and IDC’s Global COVID-19 resources microsite at: https://www.idc.com/misc/covid19. Contact Information: If you'd like to learn more about how IDC Canada can help you, please feel free to contact us at askidc@idccanada.com or your IDC representative directly with any questions.
Public health crises such as COVID-19 — in which people may feel powerless and receive conflicting information — can lead to a flare-up of unsafe religious sentiments, says Baylor University epidemiologist Jeff Levin, Ph.D., who cites past persecution of religious and ethnic minorities who were blamed unfairly for spreading disease. While some possibly unreliable projections about COVID-19 are being spread, containment — and common sense — are key, Levin says. In addition, research shows that maintaining one’s spiritual life can help people remain strong in the face of health challenges and encourage them to reach out to help others. Levin is University Professor of Epidemiology and Population Health, director of the Program on Religion and Population Health in Baylor University’s Institute for Studies of Religion and adjunct professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Duke University School of Medicine. He recently lectured at Duke about the COVID-19 outbreak, on infectious disease pandemics in general and on religious dimensions of the present crisis. In this Q&A, he speaks about these issues. Q. What do you feel is the most important message that needs to get out about the coronavirus outbreak? LEVIN: There are still folks out there saying, “Ah, this is nothing” or “It's all hype.” I'm not that guy. This is very serious. Still, I believe that some misinformation is getting out there that's scaring people, and that's not a helpful thing. I have some concerns about how the facts and nuances of this outbreak have been communicated to the public. In the past few weeks, the news and internet and social media have been inundated with some very alarming projections, some of which in my opinion may be off perhaps by an order of magnitude. This is due in part to mistaken calculations being made by people, including M.D.s who don't understand the parameters of disease transmission or the concepts that epidemiologists use to track outbreaks. This also includes some government officials who are miscommunicating issues regarding risk, pathogenesis and prognosis, and this information is then being picked up by the media and projected out to the general public. Suddenly, even laypeople people are throwing around very technical epidemiologic jargon — exposure, infectivity, case fatality, herd immunity, transmission, incubation period, flattening the curve — without knowing exactly what these words mean or how they’re used, and some faulty messages are getting out. There’s a pressing need for responsible public voices who can help separate the signal from the noise, but those voices seem to be scarce. But regardless, whatever the projections are — good, bad, or ugly — so much hinges on containment. If we manage that properly, such as through all the good advice we’ve been given about social distancing, washing our hands, disinfecting surfaces and so on, we'll get through this with minimal — a relative term — casualties. If we ignore this advice, things can go south in a hurry. It only takes one clinical case getting loose in the community to create a secondary outbreak. Noncompliance can easily create an army of “Typhoid Marys” in communities across the country. In any outbreak due to any pathogenic agent, such as the SARS-CoV-2 virus, there are things we can do, one, to break the chain of transmission and, two, to minimize the damage to ourselves. There’s a public health response and a personal response. The public health effort is focused on how to limit exposure and transmission, which is exactly what needs to happen. There are policies that we should follow as far as our own behavior and social interactions and as far as the environment we live in where the virus is circulating. We’ve all become familiar with what these things are. But there’s the other side of the coin. In epidemiologic terms, exposure does not imply infectivity. Not everyone who is exposed to the virus will become infected. Infectivity in turn does not imply pathogenicity. Not everyone who is infected, who receives a positive test, will become a clinical case, will become sick. And finally, not everyone who comes down with COVID-19 and manifests signs and symptoms of disease will have a virulent enough case that will require intensive medical care or hospitalization, and only a minority of those will lose their life. Most, we believe, will recover just fine. So the folks who are at risk of a very serious outcome are a subset of a subset of a subset of folks who are exposed to the virus. The problem right now is that we don’t have a definitive grasp on these percentages. So we all need to do everything that we can not just to limit exposure and transmission but to strengthen ourselves to withstand the natural course of infection and disease. Epidemiologists call this “host resistance.” Q. What can we do to strengthen our resistance to the infection and the disease? How does faith figure into this? LEVIN: We know from decades of research that so many things that we can do in our daily lives can help us to withstand and recover from illness. We can eat right — avoid junk food and overeating and consuming toxins. We should avoid smoking and abusing alcohol, we need to get enough sleep and manage our stress, we need to get some exercise and fresh air. We all know all of this, but in difficult times it’s easy to fall into inaction and depression, which itself can depress the immune system and impair our ability to stay healthy or to recover. One of the important things that we can do, and decades of research support this, is to maintain continuity in our spiritual life. Studies show that people with a strong ongoing faith commitment can marshal an ability to remain resilient and deal with stress and even have better medical outcomes. There is a longstanding research literature on the physical and mental health benefits of hope and optimism and positive attitudes, including in the context of one’s spiritual life, and including due to the tangible and emotional support that faith and being a part of faith communities give us. Faith matters. But this isn’t a magic bullet, and I want to be careful about overstating things. Folks who expect that by being a diligent Christian or Jew, believing in God, going to religious services — in person or online — showing strong faith, studying Scriptures regularly, that by doing all this somehow a pathogenic agent won’t enter their body or won’t cause signs or symptoms of disease — I think they’re laboring under some false expectations. They’re asking belief or faith to do things that are very difficult for me to envision. Maybe that’s just the scientist in me talking, although I too am a person of faith. On the other hand, our faith can indeed be part of keeping us strong and helping us to recover. But we ought to combine expressions of faith with careful efforts to limit our exposure and contain the outbreak, and to wisely seek medical care if we start to not feel well. The Bible encourages us with verses like “put on the full armor of God,” but at the same time if you stand out in the pouring rain you can’t sanely expect not to get rained on. Q. Will this outbreak lead to a resurgence of religious belief? Are there examples of this from history? LEVIN: Yes, there are, but not necessarily in a positive way. Times of crisis like this, especially when people feel powerless and are receiving conflicting information, can lead to a dangerous flare-up of unwholesome religious sentiments, including scapegoating. Look at the Black Plague of the 14th century. From a third to over one half of Europe perished, and the one constant in every country affected by the epidemic, besides the millions of bodies piling up, was a consistent and organized effort to massacre Jews, who were blamed for the disease. Lest we think those days are behind us, look at how we responded to the brief Ebola crisis in the U.S. in 2014, which ramped up hatred toward Mexican immigrants. Or consider the present outbreak, and the terrible animosity directed at Asian Americans. We aren’t immune to this kind of behavior, especially when we feel a sense of dread or hopelessness or a sense that our prayers to God have failed and that we are receiving a divine chastisement or punishment. It’s easy then to lash out and try to identify a “demonic” source for our travail and try to seek vengeance. There is also precedent for waves of apocalypticism, fear that the end of the world is nigh. We saw this during the 1918 influenza pandemic, and it gave rise to much of the end-times thinking that persists to the present day. So faith can sustain us, even benefit us physiologically, but it can also embitter us and make us do evil or drive us to become obsessed or crazy. Q. Are there other more positive ways that faith or spirituality come into play here? LEVIN: Sure, I can think of a few. There’s a bioethical dimension. Our faith traditions remind us of our obligations to others, especially those in grave need who lack the requisite material or social resources to care for themselves. This outbreak is a social-justice teaching moment for us as a society, and along with the medical and public health dimensions there are profound lessons in moral theology to learn and act on. Will we slip into a xenophobic fear-based response, self-absorbed with our own personal needs, or will we use this time, this enforced vacation for so many of us, to reach out to those in need? I have strong opinions about this. We have been given an opportunity to be selfless and act lovingly toward others, to represent the best of what faith has to offer. Or we can choose to reinforce the most selfish and hateful and ungodly aspects of what humans are capable of. This is a choice facing every one of us. There’s also a pastoral dimension here. Each of us, not just clergy or healthcare chaplains or pastoral counselors, has a role to play in offering consolation and reassurance to our fellow brothers and sisters. And also real, tangible assistance. Our family is Jewish, and we’re reminded in Exodus that we’ve been called to be “a nation of priests.” I think the same can be said for all of us, in our respective communities. We can also be thought of as a nation, or a community, of pastors. And in that role there is much for us to do. We can be a source of accurate information to counter the insidious memes circulating on social media. We can organize our neighbors and fellow congregants to provide help to people and families who need it. We can become leaders in our faith communities to help maintain study, prayer and worship activities while we are unable to attend church or synagogue. We can love and support those who are suffering and remind them of God’s love for us. These messages matter. Maybe it’s not realistic to expect them to cause a virus to not take hold or to become less virulent, but they can strengthen our ability to recover from this outbreak, both individually and as a community of people. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 17,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions.
Replacing in-person events in the wake of COVID-19
As the world deals with the COVID-19 outbreak and normal activities are curtailed with social distancing and self-isolation, businesses and marketers are having to adapt quickly. Last week, IDC Canada hosted a webinar around "Digital Transformation and the Evolving Tech Buyer's Journey: What Canadian Marketers Need to Know". The question that was top of mind - "In the wake of Covid-19, what are some of the alternative ways of generating leads when live events are not possible?" Our experts suggested four key points during the webinar: 1. Explore virtual platforms - The experience can’t fully replace in-person events but virtual platforms can help you engage with your prospects and customers. 2. Alternatives to in-person events - Webcasts and audio podcasts designed to educate buyers and bring in customer and 3rd party perspective help you stay top of mind. 3. Interactive content – Buyers are demanding interactive and visually appealing content. Interactive tools and microsites that have been wrapped with analytics provide marketers with the performance insights needed to optimize impact. 4. Cut through the noise - Targeted industry or role specific messages will have more impact in uncertain times. Watch now the webcast on-demand If you are interested in learning more about these techniques - then let us help. Julie Tiley is the Vice President, Custom Solutions for IDC Canada. She is an expert in the areas of developing and delivering programs designed around on specific business goals, especially in a rapidly changing environment like the one we are facing today. Julie is available to speak with media or anyone interested in knowing more. Simply click on either expert’s icon to arrange an interview or email askidc@idccanada.com.
Knowing How to Help — And How Not to Help — After a Disaster Makes a Difference
The images coming out of Nashville as it begins to recover from a deadly tornado that tore through the city on March 3 are heartbreaking. As people in other parts of the country are moved to do something, it is important that they know which ways of helping are effective — and which are not. José Holguín-Veras, the director of the Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment at Rensselaer, can address this based on the research he's done in the area of humanitarian logistics. He has found that some well-intentioned attempts at assistance can even be counterproductive. Holguín-Veras' work was recently cited in an article written for The Conversation on this very topic. Julia Brooks, a Furman Public Policy Scholar at New York University, wrote: "One study led by José Holguín-Veras, a Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute expert on humanitarian logistics, found that 50% to 70% of the goods that arrive during these emergencies should never have been sent and interfere with recovery efforts. After the 2011 Joplin, Missouri, tornado and the Tōhoku, Japan, earthquake, for example, excessive donations of clothing and blankets tied up relief personnel." If you'd like to speak with Holguín-Veras about humanitarian logistics following this natural disaster, please click on his ExpertFile profile.
With South Carolina in the rear-view mirror, for most candidates seeking to represent the DNC this November – Tuesday is bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded. A home run means it is game over and the champion is crowned. A hit likely means you’ve survived to play another day. But for those who swing and miss … it’s a long walk to hang up the cleat and hit the political showers. There is a lot riding on Super Tuesday and odds are there will be a lot of people pontificating, pondering, and trying to predict what’s next for those left standing. And if you are a journalist covering the lead up and the aftermath to this high-stakes and heated race to lead the Democratic Party against President Donald Trump – let us help with your stories. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is a sought-after political commentator on subjects ranging from presidential politics to the local Virginia congressional races. He has been widely featured in national media, including The Washington Post, Reuters, The Chicago Tribune and MSNBC. He is author or co-author of six books on presidential communication. His latest work, "Presidential Communication and Character: White House News Management from Clinton and Cable to Twitter and Trump," examines how the last four U.S. presidents sell themselves and their policies in an ever-expanding and sometimes precarious media environment. Dr. Farnsworth is available to speak with media and help with your coverage – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
