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Expert Perspective: UMW's Steven E. Harris lends his opinion to The Russia File
The following piece was written by Steven E. Harris published by the Wilson Center in April 2024 Sanctions Are Spoiling Russia’s Plans to Make Its Own Airplanes Putin’s regime is feeling confident these days. Advances on the battlefield in Ukraine, expansions in armaments production, and the dithering of Republicans in the U.S. Congress show the war has turned in Russia’s favor. A well-orchestrated presidential election and some real public support buoy the regime. Political opponents are either dead, in prison, or in exile. Putin’s regime has also declared victory in blunting Western sanctions and now plans to permanently thwart them with programs of import substitution. Nowhere is this better seen than in aviation, where the state proclaims it will produce over a thousand new airplanes to replace the foreign aircraft its airlines have long flown. But this bold vision for aviation autarky has little chance of succeeding. Russia’s Short-Term Success in Blunting Aviation Sanctions Thus far, Putin’s regime has weathered aviation sanctions through a two-pronged strategy. First, Russian airlines illegally kept about 400 foreign airplanes—primarily Airbuses and Boeings—owned by foreign leasing companies. Second, the state bankrolled settlement claims in order to purchase some of these airplanes so that airlines could fly them abroad without risk of repossession and reduce their foreign debt. To date, approximately 170 foreign airplanes have been legally acquired in this fashion, and the Ministry of Transportation recently asked for more cash to continue settling claims on the remaining 230 foreign planes. The next question is how long Russian airlines, from the state-owned flag carrier Aeroflot to private companies such as S7 and Ural Air Lines, can continue flying their foreign planes. As I wrote in late October, safety has been degraded far less than predicted. But in the absence of spare parts, software updates, and thorough maintenance by foreign providers, Russian airlines have about two years before they will have to ground Boeings and Airbuses for major repairs performed using third-party spare parts. Anticipating the eventual retirement of foreign planes, Putin’s regime has embarked on a massive program to make all-Russian airplanes. This program promises independence from Western technology and leasing companies but reveals the success of sanctions and fundamental weaknesses in state capacity. The 2030 Aviation Manufacturing Plan Announced in June 2022, the program calls for the state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec to manufacture 1,036 airplanes with only Russian parts by 2030. In January 2024, the state allocated 283 billion rubles (U.S. $3.1 billion) to help finance the production of 609 airplanes and prioritize medium-haul aircraft in the overall manufacturing plan. Before sanctions, Russian manufacturers produced a small number of narrow body, medium-haul airplanes such as the MC-21 and the Superjet-100 (SSJ-100) with Western components. Twelve SSJ-100s were manufactured in 2021 and ten the following year. Among the aircraft slated to replace Boeings and Airbuses, the plan called for production in 2023 of three medium-haul Tupolev-214 (Tu-214) airplanes and two Superjet-NEW planes (Superjet-100s with all-Russian parts). None of these were built. In fact, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) failed to manufacture a single passenger airplane in 2023. More recently, the UAC conceded further delays of up to two years for rollout of the MC-21, SSJ-NEW, and Tu-214, as well as of smaller, short-haul aircraft such as the Ilyushin-114 (Il-114) and the “Baikal.” The transition to total import substitution is proving difficult, making it impossible to fulfill early targets of the manufacturing plan. By withdrawing access to Western technology critical for manufacturing, sanctions have successfully shut down production. Russian manufacturers will produce at best inferior aircraft that fly shorter routes using more fuel. At its current rate, the UAC is unlikely to manufacture more than a dozen or so showcase narrow body airplanes before 2030. The manufacturer may have better luck producing simpler planes, such as the Baikal, but the state’s injection of 283 billion rubles doesn’t target its production or that of two other short-haul airplanes. Since the UAC will likely not meet the plan’s annual targets any time soon, Russia’s airlines will have to make do with their aging foreign airplanes and acquire spare parts from third parties. Putin admitted as much at his call-in event in December 2023, during which he praised the import-substitution plan but added that the government would continue to purchase illegally held foreign planes. What Will Russia’s Aviation Manufacturing Plan Actually Produce? Rather than produce new aircraft, the immediate purpose of the state’s manufacturing plan is political theater. The infusion of 283 billion rubles was meant to show the public, before the presidential elections, that Putin’s regime is serious about securing commercial aviation and to generate a sense of normalcy in the midst of war. In the long run, the manufacturing plan is more likely to produce further distortions in Russia’s political economy. These include corruption, secrecy, technologically backward aircraft, and even more state control over commercial aviation. The 283 billion rubles will help Rostec keep state-run subsidiaries such as the United Engine Corporation operating with soft budget constraints and favorable contracts that now lack any competition from Western firms. Executives will siphon off their share of the funds, while Putin’s regime will turn a blind eye as long as everyone remains loyal. If the manufacturing plan continues to falter, state-owned manufacturers will have more incentive to keep their failures secret. In 2023, for example, the Ural Civil Aviation Factory kept hidden cost overruns for the Baikal. When news of a 48 percent increase was finally publicized, Putin’s point man for the Far East region, Yuri Trutnev, was incensed and proclaimed, “Our people are like that: they don’t like to share information.” For now, Putin’s regime allows the Russian business media to report fairly openly about the country’s aviation industry on issues such as spare parts and safety, state subsidies, and shortfalls in production. But if commercial flying becomes more precarious and the manufacturing plan remains unfulfilled, the government will likely limit what the public knows about its airlines and long-term plans to maintain them. As the economic historian Mark Harrison shows in his recent book, Secret Leviathan, secrecy in the Soviet era significantly degraded state capacity in many areas, including production. Post-Soviet autocrats face a similar “secrecy/capacity tradeoff,” while newer techniques of disinformation further erode capacity. In attempting to revive the Soviet Union’s autarkic aviation industry, Putin’s regime will find it hard to avoid similar reductions in capacity. Insofar as Russia’s commercial aviation industry is concerned, the lesson for the West is that it pays to play the long game. Russia has effective tools for blunting sanctions in the short run, but in the long run it faces structural obstacles and the absence of Western technology, both of which will degrade this economic sector. The main question remains whether the United States and its allies can keep up the pressure by enforcing sanctions.
The Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation (VPA) is leading the way in research and policy recommendations on the governance of artificial intelligence. At the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, the groundbreaking initiative was commended by FTC Chair Lina Khan for its impact on her work with the agency. As part of Discovery Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation is a groundbreaking initiative to bolster innovative research and education at Vanderbilt. The mission of VPA is to swiftly develop and advance cutting-edge research, education and policy proposals at a pace that aligns with the urgency of today’s challenges. The VPA encompasses several projects, including one dedicated to revitalizing the study of the law and political economy of networks platforms, and utilities (NPUs) in transportation, communications, energy and banking. “Many of our country’s most pressing economic and social challenges are directly tied to how we govern network, platform, and utility industries, including airline flight cancellations, social media regulation, banking failures and electric grid crashes,” said Ganesh Sitaraman, the New York Alumni Chancellor’s Chair in Law at Vanderbilt Law School and director of VPA. VPA’s Project on Networks, Platforms and Utilities has developed a series of papers and policy proposals to improve the governance of these sectors. Among this work are a set of proposals to policymakers for regulating air travel, a plan for stabilizing and regulating the banking sector, and 40 recommendations to promote competition throughout the American economy. With growing interest in AI, VPA has turned its eye to how policymakers can address the harms that come from concentration in the AI technology stack. VPA’s papers have developed an antimonopoly approach to regulating AI, addressed public capacity for AI, and offered proposals on federal procurement of AI resources. VPA’s work in this field has gotten increasing attention. VPA director Ganesh Sitaraman participated in one of the U.S. Senate’s AI Fora in 2023. And during the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, FTC Chair Lina Khan specifically noted VPA’s impact on the agency. “I think the work that VPA has been doing on AI has been so enormously useful,” said Khan. “It’s really striking how it took 15 years before the NPU toolkit was even discussed alongside the Web 2.0 giants. So, the fact that from the very get-go this kind of framework is being applied in the context of AI policy discussions really marks that forward movement.” During the June conference, participants—which included 64 attendees from 15 different countries— discussed how their jurisdictions of study approach the regulation of network, platform and utility industries. This year’s conference was structured around eight panels, one on general themes and seven featuring a specific NPU sector: railroads, electricity, banking & finance, airlines, social infrastructure, tech platforms and telecommunications. “Vanderbilt is a leader in research on these topics, and we were very excited to welcome scholars from around the world to Nashville and to Vanderbilt, in order to explore these issues from a comparative and global perspective,” said Sitaraman. In the coming months, the conference organizers intend to compile the papers presented at the conference into an edited volume. To learn more, visit the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator website.
Gold medal-worthy experts for Olympic Summer Games coverage
The University of Delaware boasts several experts who can comment on health-related topics such as injuries and training and business-focused areas like marketing and team behavior as they relate to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Matt Robinson Professor, sport management Relevant expertise: Will be in Paris and can discuss the Olympics from an onsite perspective; can give the backstory on The International Coaching Enrichment Certificate Program (ICECP) and what’s new in the Paris Olympics. Link to profile and contact Tom Kaminski Professor, kinesiology and applied physiology Relevant expertise: Can comment on the impact of heading in Olympic soccer and has studied the risks of concussions in sports for nearly three decades. Link to profile and contact Karin Silbernagel Professor, physical therapy Relevant expertise: Research aims to advance the understanding of tendon and ligament injuries and repair. Can also discuss sailing. Link to profile and contact Tim DeSchriver Associate professor, sport management Relevant expertise: Sport finance, economics and marketing Link to profile and contact Other experts: INJURIES: Tom Buckley Associate professor, kinesiology and applied physiology Relevant expertise: Head impacts from boxing. Stephanie Cone Assistant professor, biomedical engineering Relevant expertise: Studies the structure-function relationship that exists in tendons and ligaments with a special interest in changes in this relationship during growth and following injury. Mike Eckrich Clinical instructor, physical therapy Relevant expertise: Weightlifting; can talk about the difference between men’s and women’s injuries and form in the sport. Donald Ford Physical therapy Relevant expertise: Shoulder injuries/rehab expert Jeffrey Schneider Senior instructor, kinesiology and applied physiology Relevant expertise: Athletic training and injury prevention, with a particular interest in ice skating injuries. Worked with athletes competing in Winter Olympics (2002, 2006) as a strength and conditioning coach and athletic trainer. EVENTS: Jocelyn Hafer Assistant professor, kinesiology and applied physiology Relevant expertise: Race Walk events and how biomarkers are used in walking studies. Airelle Giordano Associate professor, physical therapy Relevant expertise: Gymnastics; she was a collegiate gymnast Kiersten McCartney Doctoral student Relevant expertise: Can chat about Paralympic Triathlon (running, hand cycling, swimming). Steve Goodwin Associate professor, health behavior and nutrition sciences Relevant expertise: He is also in Paris leading a study abroad cohort. He has been to multiple Olympics, and can also speak to on-site experience, differences in games, etc. George Edelman Adjunct professor, physical therapy Relevant expertise: How the "underwaters” technique gives Olympians an edge. BUSINESS: John Allgood II Instructor, sport management Relevant expertise: Sport business management, event management SCIENCE: Joshua Cashaback Assistant professor, biomedical engineering Relevant expertise: Specializes in neuromechanics and control of human movement. His research falls under two major themes: The neuroplasticity and adaptation research line tests how reinforcement feedback can subserve our ability to acquire new motor skills.
Can you benefit in transferring high-interest credit card debt?
Photo credit: paulaveryevans According to Lendingtree, Americans have over $1 trillion in credit card debt. The average American has around $6,500 in credit card debt. When you factor in the high interest that credit cards charge, it can be a daunting task to get the balance to zero. Many cards offer 0% APR on balance transfers for certain length of times. But is it worth it if you don’t plan on paying off the entire balance during the promotional period? Wendy Habegger, PhD, senior lecturer in the James M. Hull College of Business, said you need to be careful when taking advantage of such offers. “The benefit one would get in this situation is short-lived,” said Habegger. “While one might enjoy no interest for the promo period, when that period is over, the interest rate they are charged could be more than the credit card from which they transferred. My recommendation is that if one does a balance transfer, then only do so if you are able to pay off the balance before the period ends.” Some may think of doing a second balance transfer but Habegger said that it is not a good idea and could have a negative impact on a person’s credit score. It also gives the appearance the customer is at increased risk of default, which could trigger an even higher interest rate and higher fees. Not only may one incur higher rates, it could certainly impact their credit score, which can have a long-lasting financial impact. Even a large purchase on a 0% APR card will affect someone’s credit score. “A large purchase indirectly impacts one’s credit score based on credit utilization,” she added. “If one uses more than 30% credit utilization, it could impact credit scores.” Personal debt and credit are trending and important topics in America today - and if you're looking to know more, we can help. Wendy Habegger is a respected finance expert available to offer advice on making the right money moves during volatile times. To arrange an interview, simply click on her icon now.
Is the U.S. banking system on the edge of collapse? Our #expert can explain
The recent bailout of First Foundation Inc, parent of First Foundation Bank, by a group of investors has reignited concerns about the stability of the U.S. banking system, specifically banks exposed to debt in the commercial real estate market teetering on the verge of collapse. First Foundation Bank reported more than $6 billion in commercial real estate mortgages on its financial statements for the first quarter of the year, equal to almost six times its equity capital and almost half of its $13.6 billion in total assets. Bank regulators consider any exposure greater than three times equity to be excessive. An analysis by Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in the College of Business at Florida Atlantic University, previously found that the First Foundation Bank was fourth highest among the largest banks in the nation in terms of its exposure to commercial real estate debt. It’s likely that other banks are also at similar risk: among banks with more than $10 billion in total assets, there are 67 that exceed this 300% concentration ratio, Cole’s analysis showed. Among the approximately 4,600 banks of any size, Cole reports that 1,871 have total CRE exposures greater than 300%, 1,112 have exposures greater than 400%, 551 have exposures greater than 500%, and 243 have exposures greater than 600%. Cole is available for expert commentary on the stability of the U.S. banking system, other banks at risk due to their CRE exposure, and investor confidence.
Sunday is the anniversary of Brexit - We're here with expert insights if you're covering
The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, commonly known as Brexit, stands as one of the most significant geopolitical events of the 21st century. This topic matters to the public because it encompasses profound implications for international trade, immigration, legal frameworks, and political alliances. The ripple effects of Brexit are felt not only within the UK and the EU but also globally, making it a critical issue for journalists to cover. Brexit's impact spans numerous sectors and societal issues, providing a wealth of story angles, including: The economic impact of Brexit on the UK, EU, and global markets Changes in immigration policies and their effects on individuals and industries The evolving political landscape in the UK, including the rise of nationalism and regional independence movements The legal challenges and adaptations post-Brexit, particularly concerning trade agreements and regulatory standards The social and cultural consequences of Brexit, including shifts in public opinion and societal division The future of UK-EU relations and their broader implications for international diplomacy and cooperation As we continue to navigate the complexities of Brexit, journalists have the opportunity to explore these diverse and critical narratives, offering in-depth insights into the ongoing and far-reaching impacts of this historic event. Connect with an Expert about Brexit: Dr David Lowe Senior Research Fellow · Leeds Beckett University Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo Senior Lecturer, Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship · Aston University Dr Patrycja Rozbicka Senior Lecturer · Aston University Dr Jo Michell Associate Professor of Economics · UWE Bristol Patrick L Young Executive Director · Derivatives Vision To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com Photo credit: Rocco Dipoppa
Veterinary deal would increase UK agrifood exports to EU by more than a fifth, research shows
A veterinary deal would increase agri-food exports from the UK to the EU by at least 22.5%, say researchers Agri-food exports overall are worth £25 billion to the UK economy, but the two years since the new trading rules were put in place have seen a fall of 5% in exports to the EU from 2019 levels, during a period where the sector has otherwise grown. Team from Aston University and University of Bristol have analysed trade deals and export figures worldwide to estimate impact of a new veterinary deal on UK–EU exports A veterinary deal with the European Union could increase UK agricultural and food exports by over a fifth, according to new research. The team, from Aston University’s Centre for Business Prosperity and the University of Bristol, analysed the agricultural and veterinary aspects of trade deals around the world to estimate their impact on exports. They then modelled the potential impact of different types of agreement on UK exports to the EU. Veterinary Agreements specifically focus on regulations and standards related to animal health and welfare, as well as to the safety of animal-derived products such as meat, dairy, and seafood. They aim to align, harmonise, or recognise veterinary requirements and certifications, and reduce the number of inspections between countries to facilitate the safe and efficient trade of live animals and animal products. The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), implemented in January 2021, eliminates tariffs and quotas but does not remove non-tariff barriers to trade. These can be particularly burdensome for agricultural and animal-derived food (agri-food) exports, involving complex rules and requirements, production of extensive documentation and veterinary checks. The UK agri-food sector is a cornerstone of the UK economy, with exports worth £25 billion and employing 4.2million people. Although the sector is growing overall, exports to the EU shrank in 2022 by 5% compared to 2019, in part due to the new trade arrangements. This has led to calls for an EU–UK veterinary agreement from business and agri-food organisations, including the Confederation of British Industry, British Chambers of Commerce, UK Food and Drink Federation, Chartered Institute of Environmental Health and British Veterinary Association. Analysing data from the World Bank on 279 trade agreements and export statistics from over 200 countries, the researchers found that shallow agreements, that went little further than provisions already covered by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, had significant negative impacts on agri-food exports. However, where trade agreements went beyond WTO provisions to include more commitments on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures (which aim to protect countries against risks relating to pests, diseases and food safety) and were legally enforceable, they had a robust, positive impact on exports, particularly exports of animal products and food. Applying this to the UK–EU relationship, the team estimate that a veterinary agreement that went beyond the existing TCA provisions would increase agri-food exports from the UK to the EU by at least 22.5%. Imports from the EU would also increase by 5.6%. In the 203 countries studied for the research, positive effects of deep trade deals that included provisions on agriculture took between 10 and 15 years to manifest. But the UK might not have to wait so long, according to report co-author Professor Jun Du, Director of Aston University’s Centre for Business Prosperity. “There is no blueprint out there that mirrors the UK–EU relationship. Most veterinary agreements are agreed as part of a trade deal between countries that haven’t previously had close alignment and it takes a while for the benefits to take effect. “Until recently, the UK had frictionless agri-food exports to the EU, so it’s possible that a supplementary veterinary agreement to reduce some of the frictions created by Brexit could allow trade that previously existed to pick up again quite quickly.” However clear the economic arguments, the legal and political barriers to a veterinary agreement still remain. The researchers address these in their report, suggesting that the best format for the additional measures would be as a supplementary agreement to the TCA. The key question for the UK government in negotiating such an agreement would be what the EU demanded in return. “The closest model is the EU-Swiss relationship, which sees Switzerland largely follow EU law,” said report co-author from the University of Bristol, Dr Greg Messenger. “That’s unlikely to be an option for the UK. As we wouldn’t expect to eliminate all paperwork, we could both agree that our rules meet each other’s standard for phytosanitary protection. As most of our rules are still essentially the same as the EU, that wouldn’t require any major change, though we’d have to agree a greater level of coordination in relation to the development of new rules.” The report was written jointly by Professor Du, Dr Messenger and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, senior lecturer in economics, finance and entrepreneurship at the Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School.
Reddit Shares Expected to Commence Trading on NYSE | Media Advisory
In a move emblematic of the digital age's intersection with traditional finance, Reddit, the vast online community platform, is poised to debut its shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This event marks a significant milestone for the company, celebrated for its user-generated content and vibrant forums that span every conceivable interest. For investors, tech enthusiasts, and users alike, Reddit's transition from a private to a public entity opens up discussions on the valuation of online communities, the future of digital platforms, and the implications for the broader stock market. Key sub-topics include: Initial Public Offering (IPO) Details: Insights into Reddit's valuation, share pricing, and the IPO process. Impact on the Tech Industry: What Reddit's public listing means for the tech sector and other social media platforms. User Community Reaction: How Reddit's dedicated user base perceives the move to go public and potential changes to the platform. Market Performance and Investor Sentiment: Analysis of investor interest, market trends, and the potential for Reddit's stock. Corporate Governance and Strategy: The shift in Reddit's management approach post-IPO and strategic plans for growth. The Role of Digital Platforms in Modern Investing: How Reddit and similar platforms influence investor decisions and market dynamics. For journalists seeking research or insights for their coverage on this topic, here is a select list of experts. Scott Stratten President & CEO · UnMarketing Samantha Bradshaw Doctor of Philosophy Candidate · Oxford Internet Institute David Meerman Scott Marketing Strategist, Keynote Speaker, Bestselling Author Sean Thoennes, Ph.D. Associate Faculty - Media Psychology · Fielding Graduate University To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com Photo by Brett Jordan
It's going to be a busy week in America when it comes to politics. And if you're covering - we have experts who can help with any of your questions or stories. Tom Smith - Professor in the Practice of Finance - Professor Smith is an expert in labor economics, entertainment and healthcare economics, as well as real estate and urban economies. David Schweidel - Professor of Marketing - Professor Schweidel has been closely researching the impact of AI in society, especially elections. He can speak on the impact AI is expected to have in this year’s elections. Professor Schweidel also has extensive work in election marketing. He researched negative campaign advertising and if a negative tone has a positive impact on election results. Ramnath Chellappa - Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management - Professor Chellappa is available to discuss the economics of information security and privacy. He can also discuss the economics and impact of AI. Raymond Hill - Professor Emeritus Hill is available to discuss any issues on the economy related to energy. If you are looking to arrange an interview - simply click any of the listed expert's icons to set up a time today or email Kim Speece for assistance.
Expert Help: Augusta University faculty offers financial advice for college students
The world of finances isn't always an easy one for students to navigate. Wendy Habegger, PhD, senior lecturer in the Hull College of Business, suggests several ways college students can improve their financial literacy, even after their collegiate career. Habegger said most don’t have a good grasp of what that is, despite being one of the most foundational building blocks to help students start off on the right foot. “They should know their credit scores just as quickly as their GPA and they should protect it just as vigorously,” Habegger said. She also suggests students have a credit card but with the caveat they use it wisely and be sure to pay their bills in a timely fashion. While they might like using cash, having a credit card will start to build a good credit history that they’ll likely need down the road. “The sooner they get started, the better they are of having good credit when they leave (college),” she added. When looking at their student loans, there are ways they can be better prepared when they start having to pay them back. During that deferral period, she suggests students really consider what a job may pay. Also, when selecting a payment plan for college loans, make sure it’s something they can make monthly payments on without any problems. She also said people need to think about public service jobs that may offer loan forgiveness or asking a potential employer about any loan forgiveness programs. “Some employers out there will offer some sort of that. The military is a good career and they are happy to be help pay off your student loans. Other businesses may offer that as well. It can be a good perk on both sides of the table, for the company and student looking for a first time job.” This is great advice and an important topic, so if you’re a reporter looking to know more, then let us help. Wendy Habegger is a respected finance expert available to offer advice on making the right money moves during volatile times. To arrange an interview, simply click on her icon now.