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Expert Research: Hurricanes and Natural Disasters Linked to “Grocery Tax” for Lower-Income Americans

Research from Goizueta’s William Schmidt uncovers the disproportionate impact of natural disasters on low-income families’ access to essentials. Global warming is accelerating severe weather with cataclysmic outcomes for communities all over the world. In 2023, the hottest year on record, no fewer than 23 weather-related disasters struck the United States. These natural disasters claimed hundreds of lives and caused $57 billion in damage. Recently, the federal government has come under scrutiny for uneven aid response to communities affected by hurricanes, fires, and flooding in America. William Schmidt But might there be other factors at play that see disadvantaged groups more vulnerable to the impact of severe weather events? Weighing into this is award-winning research by Goizueta Business School’s William Schmidt, associate professor of Information Systems and Operations Management. He and Xabier Barriola from INSEAD Business School look at the effect of three major hurricanes in the U.S. in the last 20 years. They find evidence of higher paid prices for basic groceries in the aftermath of each storm that disproportionately impact lower-income communities in affected states. In fact, says Schmidt, when severe weather hits communities, these families end up paying anywhere between one and five percent more relative to high income households for essential food and goods. This puts a major strain on already-strained resources in times of massive disruption. "We see a spike in the prices paid for household groceries of up to five percent hitting low-income groups immediately after a major storm hits." William Schmidt “Then you have to factor in the reality that poorer households spend around eight times more of their disposable income on basic groceries than high-income households,” says Schmidt. “It becomes clear that the aftermath of severe weather is harder for them to bear. And in our research, this is an effect that lasts for months, not weeks or days.” Exposing Hidden Costs on Those Hit Hardest To get to these findings, Schmidt and Barriola worked from a hunch. They figured that in low-income areas, a lack of infrastructure, lower-quality construction, and fewer grocery store outlets could translate into supply shortages in emergencies. Ensuing stockouts might then lead to knock-on price inflation for customers. These are low-income families for whom inflation has serious and significant consequences, Schmidt says. "We know that inflation hurts poorer communities. High-income families have the option of switching between high and low-priced goods according to needs or preference. But families with lower incomes are already purchasing low-priced groceries." William Schmidt “When there are disaster-induced stockouts to their preferred products, those families are forced to substitute to higher priced groceries,” Schmidt continues. Then there’s retailer behavior. Following large environmental disasters, store managers may be unable to keep necessities in stock. Under those circumstances, it is difficult to justify running promotions or implementing planned price decreases. To test these ideas, Schmidt and his colleagues looked at data from the weeks and months following Hurricanes Katarina (2005), Ike (2008), and Sandy (2012). They decided to pinpoint those locations immediately impacted at the county level. To do so, they used major disaster declarations issued by the federal government at the time. Then they integrated this with detailed grocery store sales data provided by Information Resources Inc (IRI) with zip code-level household income and demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau. With each hurricane, the researchers looked at IRI data covering 30 different product categories and around 200 million transactions over a 12-week period. Schmidt and his colleagues then ran a set of analyses comparing prices paid by communities before and after each hurricane. They also contrasted price increases paid by low-income and high-income households as well as communities outside of the areas affected by the storms. Crunching the Numbers “Doing this triple-difference regression analysis, we find that lower-income communities pay an average 2.9 percent more for their groceries. That’s in the eight weeks following each of these disasters,” says Schmidt. "The effect varies. But it is roughly commensurate with the overall economic damage wrought by each hurricane, with Katrina being the worst. Here low-income families were seeing a 5.1 percent increase in the cost of food and basic goods, relative to richer households." William Schmidt The study points to a variety of mechanisms driving these effects. As Schmidt and his co-authors hypothesize, there is evidence that the same disruptions lead to fewer price promotions. They also see more frequent stockouts of low-priced goods. At the same time, there’s a shift in household purchasing from low to higher-priced products. These effects are long-lasting, says Schmidt. According to the study, post-hurricane inflation in the prices paid by consumers continues to affect poorer families for eight or more weeks. This amounts to months of economic hardship for those least resilient to its effects. Schmidt calls this “permanent inflation.” Pursuing Equity in Crisis Operations managers and policymakers should factor these findings into emergency relief efforts, say Schmidt and his colleague. The goal should be to service communities more equitably. So, there should be more thought to the provision of essential food and household goods. Also, there should be a particular focus on those most vulnerable to natural disasters and their effects. Current disaster nutrition relief programs are typically short. Authorities might do better by vulnerable communities by also extending things like cash and voucher programs, says Schmidt. And they should prioritize the ordering, shipment, and warehousing of essential goods. “Our research shows that hurricanes cost certain groups of Americans more than others in the longer run. The permanent inflation on food stuff and household necessities that we find constitutes an additional burden on part of our national fabric. These are people who are least positioned to afford it.” Hurricanes and the economy are both sought-after topics - and if you're covering, we can help. William Schmidt is an associate professor of Information Systems & Operations Management at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School. His research focuses on understanding and mitigating operational disruptions, and applications of machine learning in operational decision making.  To connect with William to arrange an interview - simply click his icon now.

New COVID variant: Uptick expected, but cases should be mild

Talk of a new COVID-19 variant can lead to a feeling of shell shock and fears that another wave is approaching. But a University of Delaware epidemiologist says the FLiRT strain will likely cause more of a ripple marked by mild cases as opposed to the waves we became accustomed to four years ago. Jennifer Horney, professor and founding director of UD's epidemiology program, said that although the number of cases will rise during the summer due to travel, weddings and other large gatherings, the health impact won't be as dire thanks in large part to our existing public immunity. "What we can expect later in 2024 will likely depend on how well the vaccine advisors are able to anticipate changes to the virus and make recommendations about a vaccine that will become available in Fall 2024," she said. Horney has been one of the leading sources for media outlets on COVID-19 and served as a member of the Board of Scientific Counselors for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Center for Preparedness and Response during the pandemic. She has led interdisciplinary research projects funded by many federal agencies and was part of the public health response to Hurricanes Isabel, Charley, Katrina, Wilma, Irene and Harvey where she conducted rapid assessments of disaster impacts on individual and community health. Reporters interested in setting up an interview can visit Horney's profile and click on the contact button. The message will reach her directly.

Anthony Fauci to visit University of Delaware as part of Disaster Research Center's 60th anniversary

Dr. Anthony Fauci will take part in a fireside chat on Friday, May 3 in honor of the 60th anniversary of the University of Delaware's Disaster Research Center. Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health and former chief health advisor to President Joe Biden, will join Valerie Biden Owens, Chair of UD's Biden Institute, for a chat at 4 p.m. about decision-making during crises as well as lessons for the next generation of leaders. The visit caps off an international workshop held by the Disaster Research Center (DRC) from May 2-4. The workshop will include a pre-workshop for graduate students; a researcher-in-residence day at the DRC where the E.L. Quarantelli Resource Collection (full of rare, disaster-related objects) will be showcased and available for use; and a two-day workshop with a range of presentations, films and activities. Fauci's chat takes place at UD's Clayton Hall and will be livestreamed from 4-5 p.m. NOTE: For future coverage of hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires and other disasters, visit the profiles of the Disaster Research Center-affiliated experts connected to this post and click "contact."

Devastation beyond the storm: Hurricane Ian the latest disaster to cause increase in suicides

This week marks one year since Hurricane Ian decimated towns along Florida's Gulf Coast, erasing whole neighborhoods and claiming 160 lives. Recent research found that the toll could continue to rise. The Tampa Bay Times reported that six people have taken their lives since the Category 5 storm moved on from the area. Increases in the number of suicides after a disaster is sadly not an uncommon occurrence, according to research by the University of Delaware's Jennifer Horney, professor founding director of UD's epidemiology program. According to a study led by Horney in The Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention, suicide rates increased 23% when comparing the three-year period preceding a disaster to three years after an event. For all disaster types combined as well as individually for severe storms, flooding and ice storms, researchers found the suicide rate increased in both the first and second year following a disaster, then declined in the third year. Flooding saw suicide rates increase by nearly 18% the first year and 61% the second year before declining to the baseline rate after that. By contrast, the suicide rate following hurricanes rose in the first year — jumping 26% — then returned to the baseline in the second year. “Counties impacted by hurricanes saw the biggest increase in the rate of suicide in the first year, which makes sense because it's the most widespread type of disaster among those we examined,” Horney said. Horney's research focuses on the impacts of natural disasters on public health, as well as linkages between disaster planning and the actions communities and individuals take to prepare, respond and recover. To request an interview, click on her profile and use the contact button to connect with the researcher.

As weather disasters mount, how prepared are we for the next hurricane?

With billion-dollar weather disasters mounting in the U.S., experts like Rima Taher at NJIT are reexamining how buildings are engineered and fortified to withstand damage, particularly from the high winds of hurricanes. Indeed, the frequency and magnitude of such disasters demand new engineering approaches and stronger safeguards. Between 1980 and 2021, the National Centers for Environmental Information recorded more than 300 weather and climate disasters that caused at least $1 billion in damage — an average of more than seven a year. The numbers peaked in 2019, when 22 such disasters cumulatively caused more than $100 billion in damage. Across the whole period, the top two types of disasters were severe storms (141) and tropical cyclones (56). Source: U.S. Billion-Dollar Disaster Events Taher, a licensed professional engineer who specializes in structural technology, structure stability, architectural cognizance and engineering standards, can answer a range of questions related to severe storm preparedness, including: What measures have been taken to mitigate mass flooding? Are buildings now better prepared? Have new building codes been implemented and are they effective? What areas, places or structures are still vulnerable to the fierce winds and massive amounts of water a Category 2 or 3 storm brings? To interview Taher, the author of “Building Design for Wind Forces,” simply click on the button below.

Infrastructure and extreme weather expert on recent weather events

Hiba Baroud, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering, is available for commentary on recent extreme weather events, including hurricanes, tropical storms and flooding. Baroud is an expert on infrastructure and climate change as they pertain to extreme weather events. She can speak to the potential dangers of the destruction and the cleanup decisions affected areas must make, including those that can help prepare for the future. Topics she can discuss include: How weathers and disasters are becoming more frequent and intense, therefore costing us more. Why cities must prepare before extreme weather hits, making future-based predictions and not just relying on historical data to understand potential concerns. With that, cities must also focus on restoration after an event happens, rather than prevention Additional dangers to residents' lives to be considered once the weather has passed - such as a lack of food and water, lack of power and road infrastructure issues

Villanova Experts Reflect on the 2010s

The iPad. Hurricane Sandy. Affordable Care Act. #MeToo. Brexit. Streaming services. Since 2010, there have been so many memorable and historic events that have shifted culture and society into unfamiliar territory around the world. Two Villanova experts have put together thoughts on a few of the decade's top stories that will continue to be relevant for the next ten years—and beyond. Stephen Strader, assistant professor of geography and the environment Over the last decade we have seen the issue of anthropogenic or human-induced climate change shift from something discussed between select, interested scientists to the front page of the news on a daily basis. This dramatic change in the importance and coverage of climate change makes complete sense given six of the last ten years globally have been in the top ten warmest on record. Actually, it's very likely, if not certain, that the last five years will be the hottest globally on record. The odds of that happening naturally are very close to zero. Nowhere have the effects of a changing climate been realized more so than in the western United States, where wildfires have wreaked havoc year after year in the 2010s. States such as California, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Washington all experienced record-breaking wildfires over the last decade. Specifically, the Camp Fire in 2018 became the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history, destroying 18,000-plus homes and killing 85 people in the town of Paradise.   Additionally: Hurricanes Dorian, Irma, Harvey, Maria, etc. damaged entire countries (Puerto Rico and Bahamas) so much that there is question whether they will ever recover from the effects. The deadliest tornado season on record occurred in 2011, including the devastating April 27, 2011, tornado outbreak and the deadliest U.S. tornado in modern history, which struck Joplin, Missouri (158 fatalities). Between 2011 and 2017, drought and water shortages impacted the western U.S., with California seeing its worst drought in history (or worst in 1,200 years). The drought killed 100-plus million trees and resulted in water shortages that affected crops and caused municipalities to limit water use. Record-setting rainfall and floods occurred in locations such as Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, Texas, etc., resulting in hundreds dead and millions of dollars in crop losses.  If the last 10 years have taught scientists, climatologists, policy makers and the general public anything, it's that we have our work cut out for us if we are to reverse this trend of increasing disasters around the world. The atmosphere continues to warm, and all model projections point to a progressively warmer future Earth if action is not taken. And this action can't be tomorrow or by 2025, 2050 or some other arbitrary year; it has to happen now if we want to reduce future economic and societal losses. Yes, it's easy to be afraid and fearful of the future when all we see as scientists and citizens are rising temperatures, deadlier disasters and a lack of drastic climate action. However, we can't let this fear result in crippling inaction; we have to let it motivate us to fight, not for just our futures but our children's, grandchildren's and great-grandchildren's futures. Let's give them a chance to see the world the way we used to: beautiful.  Jerusha Conner, associate professor of education and counseling The latter half of this decade witnessed a resurgence of student activism, sparked by Black Lives Matter protests and the dramatic events at the University of Missouri in the fall of 2015. Highlighting 2015 as a pivotal year for student activism, the authors of the American Freshman National Norms survey deemed the 2015 freshman class "the most ambitious" group in 49 years of the survey's administration in terms of their expectations for participating in protests, connecting to their communities and influencing the political structure; and the numbers of freshmen who report having participated in demonstrations as high school seniors has ticked up every year since. In my own research with college student activists in 2016, I found three striking trends: Nearly half came to college already seeing themselves as activists; only 10% consider themselves single-issue activists (with more than half identifying seven or more issues their activism addressed); and a significant share were not protesting their own institution's policies or practices, but instead concerning themselves with broader social and political issues. They are what I call "outward-facing activists," who use their campuses to stage and mobilize campaigns, rather than as the targets of their change efforts. In the last couple of years, we have seen activism among high school students take off, as students have staged walkouts and school strikes to protest inaction on climate change and gun violence. Although these movements may appear narrowly focused on a single issue, the students involved have intentionally advanced an intersectional perspective, which draws attention to the racialized, economic and gendered dimensions of the multifaceted problems they are seeking to address. Digital natives, these young people have deployed the affordances of social media not only to mobilize their peers in large-scale collective action, but also to attract and sustain the attention of the media, pressure business leaders and politicians and shape public understanding of the issues. One interesting shift with this generation of student activists is that, rather than turning their backs on the system or seeking to upend it, they are focused on enhancing voter registration and turnout, especially among young people. And their efforts appear to be working. Youth turnout in the 2018 midterms was double that of 2014, and record numbers of youth are continuing to register to vote. As the decade comes to a close and the 2020 campaign season revs up, the engagement of student activists in electoral politics will be important to continue to track.

Climate Change: A Direct Threat to Older Adults

Climate change will impact the health of all populations, but older adults are uniquely vulnerable because of the physiological changes of aging. More than half of older adults in the United States live in areas that disproportionately experience the effects of heat waves, forest fires, hurricanes and coastal flooding. Pennsylvania, New York, California, Florida and Texas account for the top five states where older adults are concentrated. Older adults who live in urban areas are vulnerable to heat island effect—the concentration and retention of heat in urban areas compared to rural areas—which places older residents in cities at increased risk of heat related illnesses and death. “Gerontological nurses need to be prepared to address the specific issues of older adults,” says Ruth McDermott-Levy, PhD, director of the Center for Global Health at Villanova University’s M. Louise Fitzpatrick College of Nursing. “We want to help nurses understand climate change and the need for specific interventions to support climate adaptation for the older adult population.” Climate change impacts require modifications in health plans for older adults. Prolonged heat will require greater needs for hydration, but the patient’s other conditions need to be considered as well. Elders with heart disease and renal failure will require astute nursing assessments to monitor the balance of hydration and electrolytes while not leading to fluid overload or electrolyte imbalances in the presence of extreme heat. With their research, practice and influence over policy, gerontological nurses are in an important position to be changemakers by measuring and documenting the harm and impact of climate change on older adults. They can advocate for measures that support older adults in disasters or extreme weather events. Nurse researchers can collaborate with climate scientists and policy makers to develop initiatives and programs that rely on climate and health evidence to support climate mitigation and adaptation for the older adult. “It is everyone’s responsibility to learn about climate change and to participate in slowing the trajectory of climate change,” Dr. McDermott-Levy says.

Hurricane season is here – are we ready for another Category 3 like Sandy?

In 2012, America’s East Coast was rocked by Hurricane Sandy. The Category 3 storm left 30 billion dollars in damage in her wake. “Over two million households in the state lost power in the storm, 346,000 homes were damaged or destroyed,[2] and 37 people were killed. Storm surge and flooding affected a large swath of the state. Governor Chris Christie said the losses caused by Sandy were "going to be almost incalculable...The devastation on the Jersey Shore is probably going to be the worst we've ever seen.” Wikipedia Fast forward to today, every season seems to now bring unpredictable weather. Is the Mid-Atlantic region prepared for the worst? What measures have been taken to mitigate mass flooding? Are buildings now better prepared? Have new building codes been implemented and are they effective? And what areas, places or structures are still vulnerable to the fierce winds and massive amounts of water a Category 2 or 3 storm can bring. There are a lot of questions to be answered and if you are a journalist covering this topic – that’s where our experts can help. Rima Taher is an expert in structural technology, stability of structures, architectural cognizance and engineering standards. To get her insights into hurricane preparedness, simply click on the button below to arrange an interview.

Research Suggests Future Tropical Storm Trends Related to Climate Change

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a "near-normal" 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with nine to 15 named storms, four to eight of which could become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes. Hurricane forecasting is an imprecise science, but current research indicates several important trends regarding future tropical storms and climate change, says Stephen Strader, PhD, a severe storm specialist and assistant professor in Villanova’s Department of Geography and the Environment. "Research has suggested that in the future there will likely be fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, but those that do occur are expected to be more intense. This is likely due to the combination of changes in wind shear (i.e., change in wind speed and direction as one goes up in the atmosphere) and warmer ocean temperatures that provide 'fuel' for tropical cyclones," says Dr. Strader. Climate scientists also suggest that tropical storms making landfall will be more likely to "stall out" due to climate change influences on the upper-level atmospheric air pattern, he adds. The combination of more intense tropical storms, greater rainfall rates and the propensity for these storms to stall or slow down once they make landfall will likely result in greater future flooding risk to some major U.S. cities, such as Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Miami, according to Dr. Strader. Recent examples of this phenomenon include Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017 and Florence and Michael in 2018.  "Although NOAA has suggested a near normal tropical storm season, it only takes one devastating storm making landfall to have devastating consequences," Dr. Strader notes.