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U.S. economy continues to expand, but at a slower pace, reaching about 2 percent growth in 2020
INDIANAPOLIS -- The U.S. economy will continue to expand for a 12th consecutive year in 2020, but by only about 2 percent and struggling to remain at that level by year's end. Indiana's economic output will be more anemic, growing at a rate of about 1.25 percent, according to a forecast released today by the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. Over the past year, political dysfunction and international trade friction have disrupted supply chains and eroded both consumer and business confidence. U.S. employment has grown during 2019 but will decelerate throughout 2020, well short of 150,000 jobs per month and possibly to about 100,000 by year's end. A tight labor market will continue to be an issue for many companies. "The total number of job openings in the economy peaked in late 2018," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "Average hours worked have been flat over the past year, and auto sales have been flat for nearly two years. Given the reliance of the U.S. economy on consumer spending, these are disturbing signs. But they are vague signs, and not enough to convince us that the end of the expansion is in sight. "We expect that growth will be weaker than in the past two years, and this outlook is likely a best-case outcome," he added. "There is massive uncertainty in the current situation." The Kelley School presented its forecast this morning to Indianapolis community and business leaders at IUPUI. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in seven other cities across the state through Nov. 20. Indiana's more meager economic growth expected in 2020 can largely be attributed to the outsized presence of manufacturing and particularly tight labor markets, said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. Manufacturing contracts more rapidly versus other areas of the economy, and tight labor markets limit employers' capacity to grow, he said. Expectations about business investment have fallen short, and corporations have been buying back stock instead of making capital investments. The trade war with China and slowing global expansion have also affected state manufacturers. The world is about to record its slowest economic growth since the financial crisis of 2009. Next year, global growth is projected at 3.4 percent, with downside risks continuing to build. China and the European Union each face structural issues amid tariffs imposed by the United States. Brexit remains unresolved. Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management showed that manufacturing activity has slowed to its lowest rate since the beginning of the Great Recession. Indiana has sought to diversify its economy in recent decades, but manufacturing output represents nearly 28 percent of gross state product. Indiana continues to lead the nation in manufacturing employment, with more than 17 percent of its jobs in that sector. "Constrained by a historically tight labor market, Indiana is expected to experience slow growth in jobs and gross output, along with the possibility for continued rising wages," Brewer said. "With fewer and fewer available people to hire, tightness of the Indiana labor markets will serve as a drag to output and employment growth." The outlook for the Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson metropolitan statistical area is slightly better, with expected growth between 1.5 and 2 percent. "Indianapolis continues to draw in talent and investment that should help it exceed the overall state level of growth," said Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics. "However, there is risk that weakness in the broader economy, and especially weakness in manufacturing, could make this forecast too optimistic." Other highlights from the forecast: The national and state unemployment rates will hold steady. The nation's rate could be below 4 percent by year's end, and the state will stay at or below full employment through 2020. Inflation will rise and end 2020 close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The stock market will struggle to get average returns with headwinds from trade, supply chain disruption and policy uncertainty. Earnings continue to exceed expectations, yet lack of definitive trade consensus continues to drive headwinds. Interest rates will remain low. The 10-year Treasury rate should stay below 2 percent and mortgages below 4 percent. Speculative grade bond yields have been rising, indicating increased risk of insolvency for marginal firms. Entry-level wage growth could cause costs to rise, earnings to fall and growth to stagnate for firms heading into 2020. Energy prices will be relatively stable, with average prices similar to those in 2019. Business investment will remain weak, although a little improved from this year. Housing will achieve a meager increase, ending two years of negative growth. Government spending will grow, but much more slowly than the past year, as the impact of the 2018 budget deal ends. The starting point for the forecast is an econometric model of the United States, developed by IU's Center for Econometric Model Research, which analyzes numerous statistics to develop a national forecast for the coming year. A similar econometric model of Indiana provides a corresponding forecast for the state economy based on the national forecast plus data specific to Indiana. A select panel of Kelley faculty members, led by Indiana Business Research Center co-director Timothy Slaper, then adjusts the forecast to reflect additional insights it has on the economic situation. A detailed report on the outlook for 2020 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. In addition to predictions about the nation, state and Indianapolis, it also will include forecasts for other Indiana cities and key economic sectors. Presenting the forecast at the Indianapolis Business Outlook Tour event were Phil T. Powell, associate dean of Kelley academic programs at Indianapolis and clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy; Cathy Bonser-Neal, associate professor of finance; and Anderson.
Kanye West is a master of marketing. It seems, the hip-hop superstar and designer has also crossed over to evangelism. The crowds are enormous and growing each week. In fact, this past Sunday on very short notice – one of his pop-up services attracted close to 6,000 people. The reaction from religious leaders has been mixed. Some are embracing and encouraging anyone who can use their star power to spread the good word. Others are hesitant as some events seem to be exclusive to some and not open to anyone hearing the call. Religion is never an easy topic to cover as a journalist – and if you are a reporter covering – that’s where our experts can help with your stories. Dan DeWitt, Ph. D. is the Director of the Center for Biblical Apologetics and Public Christianity at Cedarville University and is an expert in areas where faith and secularism intersect. Dr. DeWitt is available to speak with media regarding the rising popularity of Kanye West on the religious scene – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
D. Tyler McQuade, Ph.D., professor in the Department of Chemical and Life Science Engineering at Virginia Commonwealth University College of Engineering, is principal investigator of a multi-university project seeking to use artificial intelligence to help scientists come up with the perfect molecule for everything from a better shampoo to coatings on advanced microchips. The project is one of the first in the U.S. to be selected for $994,433 in funding as part of a new pilot project of the National Science Foundation (NSF) called the Convergence Accelerator (C-Accel). McQuade and his collaborators will pitch their prototype in March 2020 in a bid for additional funding of up to $5 million over five years. Adam Luxon, a Ph.D. student in the Department of Chemical and Life Science Engineering who has been involved from the beginning, explained it this way: “We want to essentially make the Alexa of chemistry.” Just as Amazon, Google and Netflix use data algorithms to suggest customized predictions, the team plans to build a platform and open knowledge network that can combine and help users make sense of molecular sciences data pulled from a wide range of sources including academia, industry and government. The idea is right in line with the goal of the NSF program: to speed up the transition of convergence research into practice in nationally critical areas such as “Harnessing the Data Revolution.” The team itself reflects expertise across several specialties. Working with McQuade are James K. Ferri, Ph.D., professor in the Department of Chemical and Life Science Engineering; Carol A. Parish, Ph.D., professor of chemistry and the Floyd D. and Elisabeth S. Gottwald Chair in the Department of Chemistry at the University of Richmond; and Adrian E. Roitberg, Ph.D., professor in the Department of Chemistry at University of Florida. Two companies are also involved with the project: Two Six Labs, based in Arlington, Virginia, and Fathom Information Design, based in Boston, Massachusetts. Currently, there is no shared network or central portal where molecular scientists and engineers can harness artificial intelligence and data science tools to build models to support their needs. What’s more, while scientists have been able to depict what elements make up a molecule, how the atoms are arranged in space and what the properties of that molecule are (such as its melting point), there is no standard way to represent — or predict — molecular performance. The team aims to fill these gaps by advancing the concept of a “molecular imprint.” The collaborators will create a new system that represents molecules by combining line-drawing, geometry and quantum chemical calculations into a single, machine-learnable format. They will develop a central platform for collecting data, creating these molecular imprints and developing algorithms for mining the data, and will develop machine learning tools to create performance prediction models. Parish said, “The ability to compute molecular properties using computational techniques, and to dovetail that data with experimental measurements, will generate databases that will produce the most comprehensive results in the molecular sciences. “There are many laboratories around the world working in this space; however, there are few organizational structures available that encourage open sharing of these data for the benefit of the community and the common good. We seek to collaborate with others to provide this structure; an open knowledge network or repository where scientists can deposit their molecular-level experimental and computational data in exchange for user-friendly tools to help manage and query the data.” The initial response to their idea has been strong from potential partners. Ferri and the others have already collected more than a dozen letters from major corporations such as Dow and Merck expressing interest in participating. Also on board are Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory, as well as national chemical engineering and chemistry organizations. McQuade said that chemical engineers in major industries including consumer products and oil and gas producers expend a lot of effort running experiments to determine the molecule they want to use, such as finding the best shampoo additive that doesn’t make babies cry. “The ability to design the properties you want is still more art than science.” The team also plans to develop a toolkit for processing and visualizing the data. Roitberg, whose research focuses include advanced visualization, said this could take the form of a virtual reality realm in which a user could find materials that are soluble in water but not oil, for instance, and then be able to browse for similar materials nearby. “We envision a very interactive platform where the user can explore relations between data and desired material properties,” he said.
Pharmaceutical aerosols are painless, fast-acting and less likely to cause side effects than medicines delivered via pills or injections. Yet inhaled therapies are often avoided because of the challenges associated with targeting how aerosol particles are deposited within the lung. “Current inhalers produce fairly large particles, so approximately 90 percent of the medication gets lost in the mouth and throat. It’s swallowed and wasted. This prevents many medications from being delivered through the inhalation route, even though there are a number of advantages to be gained, such as improved efficacy and reduced side effects,” said Worth Longest, Ph.D., the Louis S. and Ruth S. Harris Exceptional Scholar Professor in the Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering in the VCU College of Engineering. Simply making the particles smaller isn’t a solution. “The problem with making the particles smaller is that they go in really well — but they also come straight back out during exhalation,” said Michael Hindle, Ph.D., the Peter R. Byron Distinguished Professor in the VCU School of Pharmacy. With three National Institutes of Health R01 grants totaling more than $7 million, Longest and Hindle are applying a combined engineering and pharmaceutical approach to make inhaled medications more effective and available. In “High-Efficiency Aerosol Delivery Using the Excipient Enhanced Growth Concept: A Human Proof of Concept Study,” Longest and Hindle have created a novel platform that produces particles that are tiny when they enter the lungs — but grow in size as they travel down the warm, humid airways. This platform comprises a device that uses a mixer-heater to produce tiny particles, about one-fifth the size of those from conventional inhalers. With this delivery concept, a pharmaceutical powder or liquid is enhanced with a hygroscopic excipient, essentially a substance that attracts water. “Your lungs are full of water,” Hindle said. “So if you put something inside your lungs that likes water, it’s going to swell and grow in size and not be expelled.” Using sodium chloride — salt — as the hygroscopic excipient, they have tested their system in vitro. The results have been promising. “We’ve flipped the needle,” Longest said. “Previously, only 10 percent of the initial dose would reach the lung, and that 10 percent was poorly targeted within different lung regions. With our approach, you can get 90 percent in and distribute that 90 percent evenly, or target a specific lung region.” The researchers will begin testing their method on adults in two human proof-of-concept trials beginning in late 2019 and early 2020. In two separate, but related, NIH studies, Longest and Hindle are adapting this concept for patients ranging in age from newborn to six. Each project proposes a device approximately the size of a lipstick tube that contains a pediatric formulation (liquid or powder) enhanced with a hygroscopic excipient. There are currently no inhalers on the market specifically designed for children or infants, even though their inhaling patterns and volumes differ from those of adults. Pediatric patients therefore must use adult-sized devices. One study focuses on targeted lung delivery of the antibiotic tobramycin to children with cystic fibrosis, a population prone to respiratory infection because of overproduction of mucus in the lungs. Pediatric cystic fibrosis patients with lung infections usually receive the medication via, 20-minute nebulizer treatments daily, sometimes up to four per day. Longest and Hindle’s proposed alternative is a pediatric dry powder inhaler that is fast and easy to use. Because its particles are engineered to reach the deep lung, it is expected to eradicate infection more efficiently because there is less risk of resistant strains of bacteria forming in undertreated regions of the lung. The other study focuses on delivery of surfactant aerosols to premature infants. Surfactant is a substance found in healthy lungs that keeps the tissue supple enough to expand and contract properly. The respiratory system is among the last to develop in utero, so in newborns and preemies, this substance is sometimes not fully developed — or not present at all. When these infants experience severe respiratory distress, the current protocol is to intubate and administer large doses of liquid surfactant to the lung by way of the throat. This highly invasive and potentially dangerous procedure causes distress and blood pressure fluctuations. In this third NIH-funded study, the researchers are also developing a tiny, small volume nebulizer and a dry powder inhaler for efficient, noninvasive respiratory support for infants.
Will e-cigarettes and vaping be the next addictions epidemic to sweep across America?
In a recent op-ed, David T. Courtwright, Ph.D., an author and addiction specialist opined that there’s a market to getting people hooked on substances and that e-cigarettes are the next big problem facing America. "I had just finished a new book on addiction when the vaping crisis erupted. The gist of the book is that that globalization, industrialization, mass marketing, digitization, and social media have turned the ancient human preoccupation with disreputable, potentially addictive pleasures into lucrative, commercially normal enterprises. Bad habits have been McDonaldized. Vaping couldn’t have been a more perfect example of this. I call those who help make bad habits routine “limbic capitalists,” a reference to their products’ neural common denominator. Whether they sell junk food, porn, slots, computer games, alcohol, or drugs, they target the limbic system, the brain networks responsible for pleasure, motivation, long-term memory, and other survival functions linked to emotions. Biological evolution shaped the limbic system, which is indispensable for life and reproduction. But cultural evolution and technological change created a trapdoor. The same neural pathways can be exploited — lethally — by entrepreneurs of brain-rewarding products that foster excessive consumption and addictive behavior." October 28, 2019 – STAT There has been growing concern, awareness and news coverage about e-cigarettes and the dangers they present. As well, industry spin-doctors and public health advocates have been in overdrive trying to convince politicians about the pros and cons of legislation and regulation for these products. Are you a journalist covering this emerging issue? Then let the experts from Cedarville help with your coverage. Dr. Marc Sweeney is an expert specializing in drug abuse, prescription drug abuse, Opioid addiction, medical marijuana & related issues. Justin Cole is an expert in clinical pharmacy, Pharmacogenomics, and the pharmacy industry. Both experts are available to speak to media regarding this issue – simply click on either gentlemen’s icon to arrange an interview.
Minority of Twitter users responsible for vast majority of political tweets
Associate Professor of Law David Levine recently lent his expertise to a Washington Post article looking at who is posting tweets about U.S. politics on the popular social media platform. The Oct. 24 article by reporter Marie Baca examined a recent report by the Pew Research Center that found that 10 percent of U.S. adult Twitter users generated 97 percent of tweets mentioning national politics. Those who were most prolific accounted for just 6 percent of all U.S. adult Twitter users, but authored 73 percent of all political tweets, the report found. "It can be quite dangerous if you’re not taking a step back and saying, ‘What do I know about the sources of this information and who or what is behind it?’” — David Levine, associate professor of law Levine, who is the founder of the "Hearsay Culture" radio show about modern technology issues, noted that Twitter users who find themselves in an echo chamber populated by others who mirror their views could take less time to determine the origin or assess the truthfulness of information they receive in that chamber. “It can be quite dangerous if you’re not taking a step back and saying, ‘What do I know about the sources of this information and who or what is behind it?’” he said. “It’s very easy psychologically, especially if you’re coming into it with a particular perspective, to go along with it.” If Professor Levine can assist with your reporting about social media and online extremism, please reach out to Owen Covington, director of the Elon University News Bureau, at ocovington@elon.edu or (336) 278-7413. Professor Levine is available for phone, email and broadcast interviews.
Higher education must rediscover the 'service ethic' of teaching
Earlier this autumn, Otterbein University hosted the Democratic National Congress for a debate of its presidential candidates. All eyes from across America and around the world were on Otterbein and it was with that attention that the school’s president John Comerford weighed in with his thoughts on how leaders need to prioritize higher education. “Today the nation’s attention will shift to Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio, as we host the next Democratic presidential primary debate. Questions will abound — of the candidates, between the candidates and, afterward, about who may or may not have “won” the night, all in the service of helping voters decide who might be best suited to lead. An important question that should be asked and won’t, however, isn’t for the candidates at all but for higher education: “Are you ready to lead?” Sadly, the answer is, “No.” Make no mistake, I fully expect plenty of discussion about higher education at the debate — its high costs, student debt, workforce shortages and the difficulty of change. I just hope the candidates don’t hold back in calling to account higher education itself simply because we happen to be their hosts. There is plenty of blame to go around with the challenges in higher education today, and higher education institutions themselves own a fair share of it. Perhaps no issue contributes more to higher education’s affordability problems than institutions’ — and parents’ — preoccupation with “prestige.” Exclusivity and selectivity are thought to be hallmarks of quality, which fosters a system that rewards institutions for perpetually raising admission standards and prices. The problem with this is that test scores — the most frequently-used metric for a student’s academic strength — generally track with a family’s income. Students from higher-wealth families have higher test scores and more frequently gain entrance to “selective” institutions, which steadily become less and less diverse. To essentially segregate students by their parents’ income this way, however, is un-American and does nothing to enrich an education or advance quality in research or instruction. It is the inevitable product, though, of a mindset that “selective” and high rankings are the top priorities in higher education. This is a falsehood that needs to be turned upside down…” October 15 – The Hill The rest of the op-ed is attached – and it is well worth the read. But if you are a journalist covering this topic or wish to learn more – then let us help. John Comerford is an expert in higher education, regional and national topics. He is the President of Otterbein University and is available to speak with media regarding higher education in America. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
2020 is the goal for launching 5G, a collection of technologies that is expected to increase cellular technology worldwide by 1,000 times the capacity, 100 times more devices and 10 times less delay. “5G is about connecting everything everywhere, anything you can imagine,” says Mojtaba Vaezi, PhD, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at Villanova’s College of Engineering, whose area of expertise is wireless communication, signal processing and information and communication technology. Partly because of our changing habits there are applications that will need higher speed, and 5G will increase their capacity. “We’re consuming more and more data these days, so we need higher volume of data. The new generation watches TV online and plays games online. They want to select whatever they like and download it when they want it,” says Dr. Vaezi. “The speed of communication is going to increase about 10 to 20 times, so if it takes one minute to download a movie in your cell phone today, in a few years we’ll be able to download a movie in three to six seconds.” 4G technology has mostly been about connecting cell phones, but 5G will be about connecting all kinds of devices: Cars will be able to connect to other cars, traffic lights and cell phones; customers ordering online will be able to track their package as it travels across the ocean; trucks will connect to each other, sharing information such as if a route needs to be changed. There are many applications, from driverless cars to surgeries on a patient in one country done remotely by a doctor in another country, connecting thousands of miles away in just a fraction of seconds. There are always challenges associated with new technology, however. In particular, 5G researchers worldwide have been working for a decade to increase the capacity and number of connections foreseen for 5G networks. In 4G and previous generations, each cell phone would transmit in distance frequencies, otherwise they’d interfere with each other. In 5G and beyond, cell phones may share their frequencies with other cell phones or devices, or we wouldn’t be able to accommodate the exploding number of new devices. This will introduce inter-device interference which is a challenge. Now, we have two or four antennas packed inside the phone. Soon, mobile towers and cell phones will have tens of antennas, further increasing capacity.
Is Donald Trump playing nuclear chicken with Turkey?
As Elvis Presley used to sing “Wise men say, only fools rush in…” and it seems America’s hasty retreat from northern Syria and its seemingly unprepared rhetoric with Turkey may have landed America in a bit of a pickle. Unbeknownst to most, the United States has an arsenal of nuclear weapons in Turkey, and senior officials are now scrambling with what they can or may have to do. “And over the weekend, State and Energy Department officials were quietly reviewing plans for evacuating roughly 50 tactical nuclear weapons that the United States had long stored, under American control, at Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, about 250 miles from the Syrian border, according to two American officials. Those weapons, one senior official said, were now essentially Erdogan’s hostages. To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance. To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago. “I think this is a first — a country with U.S. nuclear weapons stationed in it literally firing artillery at US forces,” Jeffrey Lewis of the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies wrote last week.” October 14 - New York Times It’s quite the conundrum, and if you are a journalist covering this escalating issue – let our experts help. Dr. Glen Duerr's research interests include comparative politics and international relations theory. Glen is available to speak to media regarding this topic– simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
This past October, the FCC began to explore opening up 1,200 megahertz of spectrum in the 6 GHz band for different types of unlicensed uses. This band is currently populated by microwave services that are used to support utilities, public safety, and wireless backhaul. Studies show that sharing this band with unlicensed operations is feasible—and can put massive amounts of new spectrum into the hands of consumers. Unlicensed innovator Claus Hetting of WI-FI NOW said, “This is without a doubt the single biggest opportunity in Wi-Fi—and probably in wireless—in a generation.” He added, “This 6 GHz spectrum boost will launch the Wi-Fi industry into a new growth trajectory.” Circuit Seed is aiming to have the best of both worlds: protect today’s incumbent users of the band while turbocharging the Wi-Fi networks and applications of the future. While this is good news for Wi-Fi, it will not work without adequate filtering to split this super wide frequency allocation into sub-bands. Ceramic filters will be able to do that, but it will be static. If an enterprise or a home wants smart frequency allocation with some ‘AI’ behind it, dynamic low loss filtering is a must. Circuit Seed’s 100% digital process for analog signal processing is an ideal solution for high performance filtering with low noise and low signal loss.
