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Expert Insight: NFL Fandom: The Last Cultural Unifier?
In 2024, few cultural touchstones unify America. One of the remaining cultural unifiers is the NFL. It is almost guaranteed that the Super Bowl will be the most watched television program each year. Add Taylor Swift (another rare cultural unifier) attending to watch her boyfriend and an appealing halftime musical guest, and you can have over 120 million people watching the same program at the same time. Nothing else comes close. There is little doubt that the NFL is the undisputed champion of American sports. But how do the various NFL fandoms compare? Which team has the top fandom, and which struggles (struggle is relative here, as the lowest-ranked NFL fandom is still impressive)? This is an interesting question in a couple of ways. First, it reveals something important about the level of connection in different cities. Cities with stronger fan bases tend to have more of a shared identity. Boston residents share more love across their teams (Celtics, Red Sox, Bruins, Patriots) than folks from Tampa Bay. “Sports” cities are fundamentally different. It's also an interesting marketing analysis. Fandoms are people who share passion and love for what are essentially brands. Examining fandom can reveal something critical about how brands that inspire fandom are built. Comparing fan bases can also inflame passions. Sports fans are (often) the ultimate fans as they closely identify with their teams and feel each victory as a personal triumph and each loss as a defeat. Because fans’ identities are tied to their teams, ranking fan bases can feel like an attack. Saying Browns fans aren’t as good of fans as Ravens fans feels like an attack on Cleveland. The deeper perspective motivating this analysis is that fandom is about cultural passion, so what people are fans of largely dictates the tone and content of our societies. A society that loves baseball, country music, and trucks feels very different from one that favors soccer, opera, and Vespas. The fandom rankings are a snapshot in time of how fandom works in the NFL. And remember, the NFL is not just the top sports league in America but also the closest thing we have in 2024 to a shared societal passion. Analyzing Fandoms I have been ranking NFL and other fan bases for more than a decade. These fandom analyses are an example of brand equity analytics, and they use two types of data. The goal is to understand the relationship between market characteristics and fandom outcomes at the league level. We can then evaluate each team based on how it performs relative to league norms. The fandom or market outcome measures include things like data on prices, attendance, and social media following. These are measures of fan engagement. Prices provide a signal of how much market power a team has created. Attendance shows the enthusiasm of fans in the market to pay for tickets and take the time to travel and attend. Social media following reveals how many fans the team has in and out of their home market. Each metric has advantages and limitations. Social media following provides an indication of national fandom, but it also captures casual fans who would never pay for a ticket. The second aspect of the analysis focuses on market potential. NFL markets vary from New York, with a population of 20 million, to Green Bay, with a few hundred thousand. Income levels in San Francisco are far higher than in Jacksonville or Cleveland. I use a range of demographics, but income and population are the major factors. Again, the metrics are good but not perfect. For example, using MSA populations isn’t perfect because teams have different footprints. The Packers are more of a Wisconsin team than a Green Bay team. The teams in New York and LA share a market. Should they each get half of the metro area population? One factor that I do not control for is competition. In the southeast, NFL teams may compete with SEC teams. I have debated this issue (with myself) and have decided to neglect it. This year's analysis includes a significant change from last year. The significant change is that I am not controlling for team performance. Controlling for team performance is helpful because it isolates core or unchanging fandom. This approach has appeal, as we can argue that teams with more passionate fandoms will be more resilient against losing seasons. The downside of controlling for performance is that we get less of a measurement of the fandom's overall value. If a team like Kansas City is on an extended winning streak, then the Chiefs brand is very valuable at the moment. Controlling for winning makes the analysis more about the core, near-permanent passion of a fandom, while not controlling makes the results more relevant to current brand power. The analysis involves three steps. The first step creates measures of each team’s relative fandom outcomes and market potential. The second step develops a statistical model of the relationship between market potential and fandom outcomes. The third step compares each team's fandom outcomes with the statistical model's predictions. The third step is a comparison of actual results versus predicted – the key point is that the prediction is based on leaguewide data. As these analyses are always imperfect, the best way to consider the fandom rankings is as tiers. I like the idea of quadrants. Some brief comments on the members of each quadrant (Elite, Solid, Role Players, Benchwarmers). I will be discussing each fandom on social media. TikTok: @fanalyticspodcast Instagram: @fanalyticsmikelewis YouTube: @fanalyticsmike A bonus figure follow the Quad overviews. The Results Quadrant 1: The Elite The Dallas Cowboys lead the top group of teams, followed by the Packers, Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, Raiders, Patriots, and Steelers. Sounds a lot like what the man on the street would list as the top NFL brands. The Cowboys and Packers leading the way is no surprise. The Cowboys are second in social following and the leaders in attendance. The Packers are an astonishing fandom story as the team is located in the definitive small market. The Eagles leading the Steelers is going to be troubling in Western Pennsylvania, but the Eagles have more pricing power and more social following. The 49ers are a solid NFL fandom with few weaknesses. The Patriots are in a new era, and it will be fascinating to see if they maintain their top-tier position as Brady and Belichick become memories. The Chiefs' presence in the top group is a change from past years and is due to the shift away from controlling for performance. The Chiefs have a great fandom, but the team’s success currently pumps them up. The Chiefs are in a brand-building phase as the team continues building its dynasty. The question for the Chiefs is where they end up long-term. I don't fully understand the Raiders' ranking. The Raiders are midrange in attendance and social following but do well because are reported to have the highest prices in the league. I suspect this is more an idiosyncrasy of the Las Vegas market than a reflection of significant passionate fandom. Quadrant 2: Solid Performers The Quadrant 2 teams are the Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Seahawks, Saints, Ravens, Texans, and Browns. These are the solid performers of NFL fandoms (brands). These are teams with above expected fandom outcomes for their relative market potentials. The Quadrant 2 clubs are all passionate fanbases (maybe one exception) despite very different histories. For example, the AFC North rival Ravens and Browns differ in both relative history and frequency of winning. Cleveland fandom involves significant character, while the Ravens are a “blue-collar” brand that has been a consistent winner. There are a lot of great stories in Quad 2. The Saints were once the Aints but are now a core part of New Orleans. The Broncos and Giants are great fandoms who are probably angry to be left out of Quad 1. The Panthers' position is unexpected and may be due to some inflated social media numbers. This is the challenge when an analysis is based only on data. When data gets a little weird, like an inflated social media follower count dating back to Cam Newton's days, the results can also get a little weird. This is a teachable moment—do not analyze and interpret data without knowing the context (the data-generating processes). Quadrant 3: Role Players Quadrant 3 fandoms are teams whose fandom outcomes are slightly below average league performance (for similar markets). The Quadrant 3 teams include (in order) the Bills, Falcons, Buccaneers, Jets, Vikings, Bears, Dolphins, and Bengals. There are some interesting teams in Quad 3. The Bills have a great and notorious fandom. Jumping through flaming tables in subzero weather should get you into the top half of the rankings? The big-market Jets and the small-market Bengals have two of the most fascinating QBs in the league. Both clubs could be poised to get to Quad 2 with a Super Bowl or two. Da’Bears may be one of the most disappointing results. A team with an SNL skit devoted to their fandom in a market like Chicago shouldn’t be in Quad 3. Other quick comments: The Falcons need to win a title. Florida is tough for professional teams. The Vikings should play outside. Quadrant 4: Hopium These are the NFL's weakest fandoms, with the key phrase being “the NFL’s.” The Quad 4 teams, in order, are the Lions, Rams, Jaguars, Colts, Titans, Commanders, Chargers, and Cardinals. It’s a lot of teams who have not won regularly and have many moves and name changes. The Lions are poised for a move upward and maybe a sleeping giant of a fandom. They have the most watchable coach in the league and the most surprising celebrity fan. An interesting side story in Quad 4 is the battle for Los Angeles between the Rams (formerly of Saint Louis) and the Chargers (previously San Diego). They play in the same market, but the Rams have won more. But will Herbert lead the Chargers past the Rams? Quad 4 illustrates an important lesson: consistency. The Rams moved from St. Louis and then back to LA. The Chargers went from San Diego to LA. The Colts left Baltimore in the middle of the night. The Titans were the Oilers and moved from Houston to Nashville. The Cardinals were the other NFL team Saint Louis lost. The Commanders should have stopped with their previous name. The Fandom Outcomes / Market Potential Matrix The following figure is a bit of bonus material that may provide some insight into the inner workings of the analysis. The figure below shows the performance of each team on the Fandom Outcome and the Market Potential Indexes. The upper left region features teams with less lucrative markets but above-average fandoms, like the Packers, Steelers, and Chiefs. The lower right region is the teams with below-average fandom outcomes despite high potential markets, like the Commanders, Chargers, and Rams. This pictorial representation is also interesting as it shows teams with similar positions. These similarities can be somewhat surprising. For example, the Lions and Dolphins have very similar profiles despite the differences between Detroit and Miami. Mike Lewis is an expert in the areas of analytics and marketing. This approach makes Professor Lewis a unique expert on fandom as his work addresses the complete process from success on the field to success at the box office and the campaign trail. Michael is available to speak with media - simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today. Interested in following Future Fandom! Subscribe for free to receive new posts.
Teacher mindfulness doesn't begin on the first day of classes in the late summer or early fall. It is an invaluable skill that can be practiced and perfected all throughout the year, especially when teachers are on summer break. Leigh McLean is an an associate research professor in the School of Education and Center for Research in Educational and Social Policy at the University of Delaware. In her program of research, she investigates how teachers’ emotions and emotion-related experiences including well-being impact their effectiveness. Her work particularly focuses on how teachers’ emotions impact their instructional practices, and the role that early-career teachers’ emotions play as they transition into the career. She holds expertise in quantitative, mixed-methods, and longitudinal study design and implementation, multileveled data analysis, and classroom observation. Below she gives a few tips on how teachers can begin preparing themselves – and by extension their future students – for all the ups and downs of the upcoming school year. Engage in restorative rest this summer. One of the ways to prepare for the upcoming school year is to get restorative rest. It's important to let your brain disengage for a short time, but it's also beneficial to set aside time, before the school year begins, to think about the past school year. What went well? What might you want to do differently?? What techniques are you hoping to improve in the coming school year? As we as a society still reel from the COVID-19 pandemic, meaningfully reflect on the past four years and ask yourself what you've see with your students. What might they need to succeed this upcoming year? How can you facilitate an environment where students are getting supports for the unique challenges that the pandemic created? Incorporate mindfulness into your daily habit. A mindfulness practice is a daily regime of awareness, contemplation, and processing of all the things going on both within and outside of you. Mindfulness is a key skill when it comes to the larger goal of emotional understanding and regulation, and it has been shown to be a particularly helpful practice for teachers. However, you cannot expect to dive into mindfulness on day one of a new school year, it take practice. A great place to start is to pay attention to your emotions and work on emotional awareness in the weeks leading up to the school year. Shift your thinking fromo "emotions are noise that get in the way" to "My emotions are important signals that I have to pay attention to." This type of shift can be difficult to do for the first time in the heat of teaching so summer is a great time to practice these techniques. As educators, teachers experience the full range of human emotions every day, and they are usually the only adults in the room. While this might at the outset seem intimidating, teachers have the unique opportunity to use their emotions intentionally as cues for their students to pick up on. Dr. Jon Cooper, Director of Behavioral Health for the Colonial School District in New Castle, Delaware noted: "We want teachers to be the emotional thermostat, not the thermometer," and "We want them to intentionally set the emotional tone of the classroom." During the summer, think about how to set classroom norms and expectations to be responsive to your emotions and those of your students in a way that will create a more mindful classroom all around. This could look like including a classroom norm stating that aAll emotions are ok, even the bad ones. It could also look like acknowledging in your classroom management approaches that there is a difference between emotions and behaviors; so while all emotions are ok, not all behaviors that come from those emotions are ok. Take yourself through a school day and anticipate the needs of your students. One major mindfulness practice is taking yourself through a typical school day and identifying parts where students are most likely to have difficulties. Do students have challenging moments during small groups? Is there a lot of math anxiety going on in your class? Try structuring your day, approach, even your expressions so that you set yourself and your students up for success during these moments that are more likely to be challenging. Utilize mindfulness websites and apps. There are websites and apps teachers can use to further incorporate mindfulness into their daily lives, including: The Center for Healthy Minds UCLA's Free Mindfulness App For more tips... McLean is available for interviews and can expound on the ways teachers can set themselves – and their students – up for success. Click on her profile to connect.
The Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation (VPA) is leading the way in research and policy recommendations on the governance of artificial intelligence. At the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, the groundbreaking initiative was commended by FTC Chair Lina Khan for its impact on her work with the agency. As part of Discovery Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation is a groundbreaking initiative to bolster innovative research and education at Vanderbilt. The mission of VPA is to swiftly develop and advance cutting-edge research, education and policy proposals at a pace that aligns with the urgency of today’s challenges. The VPA encompasses several projects, including one dedicated to revitalizing the study of the law and political economy of networks platforms, and utilities (NPUs) in transportation, communications, energy and banking. “Many of our country’s most pressing economic and social challenges are directly tied to how we govern network, platform, and utility industries, including airline flight cancellations, social media regulation, banking failures and electric grid crashes,” said Ganesh Sitaraman, the New York Alumni Chancellor’s Chair in Law at Vanderbilt Law School and director of VPA. VPA’s Project on Networks, Platforms and Utilities has developed a series of papers and policy proposals to improve the governance of these sectors. Among this work are a set of proposals to policymakers for regulating air travel, a plan for stabilizing and regulating the banking sector, and 40 recommendations to promote competition throughout the American economy. With growing interest in AI, VPA has turned its eye to how policymakers can address the harms that come from concentration in the AI technology stack. VPA’s papers have developed an antimonopoly approach to regulating AI, addressed public capacity for AI, and offered proposals on federal procurement of AI resources. VPA’s work in this field has gotten increasing attention. VPA director Ganesh Sitaraman participated in one of the U.S. Senate’s AI Fora in 2023. And during the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, FTC Chair Lina Khan specifically noted VPA’s impact on the agency. “I think the work that VPA has been doing on AI has been so enormously useful,” said Khan. “It’s really striking how it took 15 years before the NPU toolkit was even discussed alongside the Web 2.0 giants. So, the fact that from the very get-go this kind of framework is being applied in the context of AI policy discussions really marks that forward movement.” During the June conference, participants—which included 64 attendees from 15 different countries— discussed how their jurisdictions of study approach the regulation of network, platform and utility industries. This year’s conference was structured around eight panels, one on general themes and seven featuring a specific NPU sector: railroads, electricity, banking & finance, airlines, social infrastructure, tech platforms and telecommunications. “Vanderbilt is a leader in research on these topics, and we were very excited to welcome scholars from around the world to Nashville and to Vanderbilt, in order to explore these issues from a comparative and global perspective,” said Sitaraman. In the coming months, the conference organizers intend to compile the papers presented at the conference into an edited volume. To learn more, visit the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator website.
A recent study on dangerous driving conducted by CAA South Central Ontario (CAA SCO) revealed that more than half of Ontario motorists, 55 per cent, admit to engaging in risky and unsafe driving behaviours in the past year. According to the survey, this number increases to 61 per cent amongst young drivers aged 18 to 34. “Dangerous driving behaviours, such as speeding, distracted driving, and aggressive driving, continue to pose significant risks on our roads,” says Michael Stewart, community relations consultant for CAA SCO. “These actions not only endanger the lives of the drivers themselves but also put all road users at risk. We must prioritize road safety by promoting responsible driving habits." Of those surveyed, the top five dangerous driving behaviours that motorists engaged in are, 1. Speeding (41 per cent) 2. Distracted driving (20 per cent) 3. Unsafe lane changes (9 per cent) 4. Aggressive driving (8 per cent) 5. Running red lights (7 per cent) In contrast, those surveyed say they frequently witnessed others driving dangerously far more often. 1. Speeding (84 per cent) 2. Unsafe lane changes (76 per cent) 3. Aggressive driving (76 per cent) 4. Distracted driving (73 per cent) 5. Running red lights (56 per cent) “The data tells us that it is far more prevalent for people to see others driving dangerously rather than admitting that they themselves are carrying out the same behaviour,” adds Stewart. The survey found that speeding continues to be the leading concern for Ontario motorists, especially on roads with higher speed limits. According to the study, 86 per cent of motorists feel safe on residential streets, compared to only 68 per cent on posted 110-kilometre-per-hour highways. “Ontarians frequently witness dangerous driving behaviours, especially on highways,” says Stewart, “the important thing to remember is that the risk of collision can increase when travelling at higher speeds.” Four out of 10 Ontario drivers will actively avoid roads with ASE Ontario drivers favour stricter fines and penalties to combat the increasing amount of dangerous driving across the province. This year alone, 35 per cent of Ontarians indicated that penalties and fines for speeding and stunt driving have influenced their driving behaviour – up seven per cent from last year. The study also found that more than three-quarters of Ontario drivers (78 per cent) believe that automated speed enforcement (ASE) can help deter drivers from speeding, as 70 per cent of Ontario drivers admit that they will slow down in the presence of an ASE camera. “It is no surprise that Ontario motorists are in favour of stricter penalties as speeding and dangerous driving continue to be an issue,” says Stewart, “what is surprising, however, is that despite the support for ASE, four out of 10 Ontario drivers will actively avoid roads where an ASE is present, an increase from last year.” According to the survey, Ontarians support the presence of ASE on all types of streets, especially near schools (84 per cent) and community centres (81 per cent). A total of 17 per cent of Ontario drivers, equivalent to more than 1.5 million individuals, have received a ticket from an ASE camera in the past. “CAA SCO continues to advocate for road safety for all road users,” says Stewart. “Our hope is that through education and awareness of the repercussions, we can begin to see a steady decrease in dangerous driving across all roads.” For more information, please visit www.caasco.com/speeding The online survey was conducted by DIG Insights from April 1 to April 16, 2024, with 1,509 Ontario drivers aged 18 and older. Based on the sample size of n=1,509 and with a confidence level of 95 per cent, the margin of error for this research is +/- 2%.)
Cuba's history is a rich tapestry of revolutionary fervor, cultural vibrancy, and political intrigue that has captivated the world for decades. This topic is particularly newsworthy due to its significant impact on global geopolitics, its unique social and economic experiments, and its vibrant cultural contributions. Understanding Cuba's past is essential for comprehending current issues in Latin America and the ongoing influence of socialist ideologies. Key story angles for journalists could include: The Cuban Revolution: Exploring the causes, key figures like Fidel Castro and Che Guevara, and the revolution's lasting impact on Cuban society and politics. US-Cuba Relations: Analyzing the historical and contemporary dynamics between Cuba and the United States, including the embargo, the Bay of Pigs invasion, and recent diplomatic efforts. Economic Policies and Reforms: Investigating Cuba's socialist economic model, the challenges it faces, and recent reforms aimed at modernizing the economy. Healthcare and Education: Highlighting Cuba's achievements and challenges in healthcare and education, often touted as successes of the revolutionary regime. Human Rights and Political Freedom: Examining issues of political repression, human rights abuses, and the struggle for freedom and democracy in Cuba. Cultural Influence: Featuring Cuba's rich cultural heritage, including its contributions to music, dance, and literature, and how culture serves as a form of resistance and identity. By delving into these aspects, journalists can provide a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of Cuba's history, offering readers diverse perspectives and in-depth coverage of a nation that continues to influence global conversations on politics, culture, and human rights. Connect with an expert about the History of the Cuba: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com Photo credit: Jason Gamble
#Expert Insight: Political Fandom
The 2024 Presidential campaign has been a roller coaster ride this summer. The upheavals are so fast and unprecedented that the reaction to each event often seems too muted. An assassination attempt and sudden pre-convention withdrawal? In a past generation, these events would be decisive, but in 2024, they seem like just the latest blip in the news cycle. The polls never seem to move more than a couple of points. In such an oddly volatile but also stable environment, our best bet to understanding what is going to transpire during the last 100 days of the election cycle is to look at data that gets to the heart of how voters view the candidates. My choice of fundamental data or essential metric is candidate fandom. Fandom is an unusual metric in politics, but it should be more common. Fandom is about passion for and loyalty to a cultural entity, be it a team, singer, university, or even politician. In fact, MAGA Trump supporters and Bernie Bros share many characteristics with Swifties and Lakers fans. Fans of all these things show up, spend, wear branded apparel, and fiercely defend the object of their fandom. The politicians who inspire fandom, such as AOC, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and Marjorie Taylor Green, enjoy many advantages and are the celebrities of the political world. Fandom is critical in politics because fans are loyal, engaged, and resilient. Fans are not casual potential voters who may change preferences and are unlikely to make an effort to stand in line to vote. Fans are the voters who will show up rain or shine and who can’t be swayed. In 2024, a fan will interpret a conviction of their candidate as political “lawfare” rather than evidence of criminality. Also, in 2024, a fan will make excuses for signs of aging that would result in children taking a senior’s car keys. The flip side of fandom, anti-fandom, is also a powerful political force. Indeed, politics may be the cultural context in which anti-fandom has the most impact. Taylor Swift may have haters, but these anti-Swifties are not buying tickets to see Katy Perry in protest. But in politics, hatred of a candidate might be as powerful a tool for generating a vote as fandom. Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign was notoriously bad at drawing crowds, suggesting he inspired little passion. In contrast, Trump’s rallies looked like rabid sports crowds complete with matching hats. However, the hatred and fear of Donald Trump inspired sufficient anti-fandom to make Biden competitive. Of course, fandom doesn’t entirely decide elections. In most elections, there isn’t all that much fandom or passion. Beyond the presidency and senatorial contests, most candidates are barely known, and identity factors (race, gender, party affiliation) and candidate awareness are the determining factors. Even in presidential elections, get-out-the-vote efforts (ballot harvesting) and election regulations (voter suppression) combined with effective marketing to the few percent of swing (low information) voters are often the determining factors. Looking toward the future, fandom may be an increasingly salient political metric for multiple reasons. First, the last two decades have witnessed many candidates raised quickly from obscurity with somehow Hollywood-worthy origin stories (Barack Obama, AOC, JD Vance, etc.). In the modern media environment, candidates’ reputations (brands) are increasingly the product of marketing narratives rather than a lifetime of real-world accomplishments. In this new world of politics, fandom will be a critical metric. Second, with the increasing diversity of the American electorate, voting will be increasingly based on identity rather than ideology. Identity-based voting segments are likely to be driven by fandom (and anti-fandom) rather than policy. We see a form of this in 2024, as high inflation has barely made a dent in voters’ preferences for the two parties. A fragmented electorate comprised of racial and gender segments whose preferences are driven by fandom and anti-fandom will lead to increasingly negative campaigns featuring ads highlighting the threat of the non-preferred party’s candidates. When voters are focused on identity, negative advertising becomes the ideal method to use fear to create anti-fandom (hate) to motivate turnout. Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump Barring further disruptions, the matchup is set for the 2024 presidential contest (as of this writing, we do not know the Democratic VP). We do know the matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is a contest between polarizing figures. Donald Trump is a movement candidate who has redefined the Republican party. He inspires passionate fandom from his followers and amazing antipathy from major media and cultural outlets. Harris is also polarizing. In the immediate aftermath of Biden’s withdrawal, Harris received massive media and donor support. However, Harris has not demonstrated any significant national voter appeal, and her time as VP has generated ample blooper real material. My approach to assessing the race is to examine each candidate's fandom and anti-fandom. Fandom is the candidate’s core, resilient support, while anti-fandom is about antipathy. Fandom and anti-fandom are especially powerful metrics for a candidate because they are relatively fixed after a candidate gains high awareness. Once an individual identifies with the candidate (e.g., they are on the same team), an attack on the candidate is an attack on the individual. This means attack ads do not work because fans feel they are being attacked. Anti-fans are also important because they constrain a candidate’s support. A Trump anti-fan is unpersuadable by efforts from the Trump campaign because their identity is steeped in opposition to him. Fans and anti-fans are trapped in a cycle of confirmation bias where all information is processed to fit their fandom. I use data from the Next Generation Fandom Survey to assess candidate fandom and anti-fandom. The Next Generation Fandom Survey involves a nationwide sample of the U.S. population regarding fandom for sports and other cultural entities. In the 2024 edition, political figures such as Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and RFK Jr were included. The survey captured responses from 2053 subjects split evenly across the four primary generations (Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and Baby Boomers), and the sample is representative in terms of racial background. The survey does not focus on likely or registered voters, so the results reflect overall societal sentiments rather than the electorate's opinions. The critical survey question asks subjects to rate how much of a fan they are of a celebrity on a 1 to 7 scale. In the following discussion, individuals who rated their fandom a 6 or 7 on the 7-point scale are categorized as Fans, while those who rate their fandom a 1 or 2 are classified as Anti-Fans. Table 1 shows the Fandom and Anti-Fandom rates for the entire sample. Donald Trump has a 27% fandom rate compared to Harris's 21%. The fandom rate is crucial because it identifies the candidate's core support. It also indicates something important about the candidate’s potential likability. In terms of anti-fandom, Harris has a slightly higher Anti-Fandom rate. Anti-Fandom is also critical as it shows the percentage of people who hate a candidate. The data suggests that Americans find Harris to be more dislikable than Trump. Notably, the anti-fandom rates are significantly higher than the fandom rates. The American public has significant disdain for politicians. The high anti-fandom rates are both the product of past negative advertising and the cause of future negative campaign strategies. Table 1: Candidate Fandom and Anti-Fandom Table 2 reports fandom rates based of the two gender segments. Trump has a 7%-point advantage with men and a surprising 4% advantage with women. This is a stunning result as Trump is generally regarded as having weakness with female voters. However, this weakness shows up in the anti-fandom rates. In the male segment, Trump has a 5%-point advantage in anti-fandom (fewer anti-fans), but a 3% disadvantage in the female segment. This reveals that Trump is polarizing to women, and almost half of women find Trump to be highly dislikable. This finding is why the Harris campaign is likely to use advertising that casts Trump as misogynistic or a threat to women to motivate turnout by female voters. Table 2: Candidate Fandom by Gender Table 3 shows the fandom rates for the two younger demographic segments: Gen Z and Millennials. This Table also shows Trump’s relative performance versus Biden (in parentheses in the last column). Trump enjoys higher fandom and lower anti-fandom than Harris in both the Gen Z and Millennial segments. In terms of fandom, Trump is plus 6% in Gen Z and plus 11% with Millennials. Critically, Harris outperforms Biden. The Gen Z anti-fandom gap between Trump and Biden favored Trump by 6% points. However, this gap shrinks to just 1% point when Harris is the comparison. The data suggests that Harris is stronger with Gen Z than Biden. Table 3: Candidate Fandom in Younger Generations Table 4 reports the fandom rates based on a racial segmentation scheme. Specifically, the sample is divided into White and Non-White categories. This is a crude segmentation, but it illustrates some essential points. Trump enjoys a significant 14% positive fandom advantage in the White demographic. He also enjoys a 10-point edge in (lower) anti-fandom. The pattern essentially reverses in the Non-White segment, as Harris has a 10-point advantage in fandom and a 17-point edge in anti-fandom. Trump’s anti-fandom in the Non-White segment is critical to the campaign. Nearly half of this segment has antipathy or hate for Trump. This high anti-fandom suggests an opportunity for the Harris campaign to emphasize racial angles in their attacks on Trump. Table 4: Candidate Fandom by Race In addition to fandom and anti-fandom rates across demographic categories, insights can be gleaned by looking at segmentation variables that reflect cultural values or personality. Table 5 shows fandom and anti-fandom rates for Trump and Harris for segments defined by fandom for Taylor Swift (Swifties) and Baseball. The Swifties skew towards Harris. The implication is that young women engaged in popular culture have more positive fandom for Harris and more negativity toward Trump. This is unsurprising given the content of the popular culture and Swift’s personal liberalism. The Swiftie segment shows a much stronger skew for Harris than all but the Non-White segment. Examining the data at a cultural level is vital as it indicates that it isn’t necessarily youth or gender where Harris has an advantage but a combination of youth, gender, and a specific type of cultural engagement. The table also includes fandom rates for baseball fans. In the Baseball Fan segment, Trump enjoys an 8% point fandom advantage and a 7% anti-fandom advantage (lower anti-fandom). Like the case of the Swifties, the fandom rates of Baseball Fans reveal something about Trump’s core support. Baseball is a very traditional game with an older fan base, and traditionalism is probably the core value of Trump fans. Trump’s negative advertising is likely to focus on the threats to traditional values (i.e., Harris is a San Francisco liberal). Table 5: Candidate Fandom and Cultural Segments Commentary and Prediction Fandom is a powerful metric for predicting political success, but like most data points, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Fandom is a measure of unwavering core support while anti-fandom measures the group that will never support and is likely to show up to vote against a candidate. Examining fandom rates across multiple segments reveals that Harris’ core support is concentrated in specific cultural and racial segments. The analysis also suggests that Trump's core support is broader than is usually acknowledged and that his main problem is significant anti-fandom with women and minorities. Harris’ problem is a lack of love, while Trump’s is too much hate. Notably, I am not paying too much attention to the current wave of excitement and enthusiasm surrounding Harris. The recent enthusiasm is likely more a manifestation of the Democratic base’s hopes and a relentless media onslaught than an actual increase in passion for Harris. Maybe there will be a permanent shift upward in Harris’s fandom, but I don’t see any logic for why this would occur. Harris isn’t suddenly more likable or aspirational than she was last month. The argument that the American people are becoming more acquainted with her is dubious, given that she has been the Vice President or a major presidential candidate for almost five years. What are the implications for the upcoming election? Voting is not only about fandom or hate, so we must consider some additional factors. For instance, many potential voters lack passion and knowledge and are more prone to vote based on identity rather than ideology. If a region or demographic segment consistently votes for a party 75% of the time, that’s voting more based on fixed identities than current societal conditions. The American electorate has many of these types of fixed-preference voter segments. Furthermore, as the American electorate becomes more diverse, identity-based voting seems to be making presidential contests more predictable. The baseline seems to be that the Democratic candidate will win the popular vote by a few percentage points, and the Electoral College will come down to a few states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Examining past electoral maps shows far more shifting of states across elections. Now, all but a handful of states are regarded as non-competitive. The Figure below shows the presidential popular vote margins for the last 50 years. It shows a trend towards smaller margins for the winning candidate, which is at least partly due to growing ethnic diversity and more fixed (at least in the near and medium terms) identity-based voting. Over the last 13 cycles, the margin of victory has dropped by about 1% every four years. Demographic change has also locked in a high baseline level of support for Democratic candidates. The last time a Republican won the popular vote was in 2004, with George Bush as the incumbent. Figure 1: Presidential Vote Margin 1972 to 2020 In addition to shrinking election margins, demographic change promises to change future campaign tones. The increasing relevance of fandom and anti-fandom, combined with the growing diversity of the electorate, will make 2024 an extremely negative campaign. The 2024 election will be determined by identity-based demographic trends and negative (anti-fandom) marketing campaigns. Demographics are destiny, and America is changing rapidly in ways that make it increasingly difficult for the Republicans to win the popular vote. It doesn’t matter if the Democrat is Harris, Newsom, Clinton, or Whitmer while the Republican is Rubio, Haley, Cruz, or Burgum. The baseline is probably 52% to 48%, D to R. Candidate fandom and anti-fandom probably shift the vote 2 or 3 percent in either direction. The correlation of demographic traits with voting behaviors creates incentives for campaign strategies that focus on identity. Republicans are eager to shift some percentage of Black or Hispanic voters to their cause because it simultaneously reduces the Democrats' base and grows Republican totals. In contrast, Democrats need to motivate marginal voters in the female, Black, and Hispanic segments to turn out. Fear-based appeals are the most effective tool for both parties' goals. Negative messaging is also prevalent because of the general view of politicians. Politicians tend to inspire more antipathy (anti-fandom) than admiration (fandom). The fandom data shows this, as both candidates have far more anti-fans than fans (this holds with other politicians) . The modern election calculus is, therefore, focused on aggressive negative ads that inspire marginal voters to take the initiative to vote against a hated candidate. Passion drives behavior, and it's far easier to drive fear and hatred of a candidate than to inspire passion and admiration. Considering the fandom data and the current electorate, I have two predictions. First, we will witness an incredibly nasty race. Harris’s best bet is to demonize Trump to motivate the anti-Trump voters to turn out. The American culture of 2024 includes constant repetition that many Democratic voting constituencies are marginalized and threatened. These segments are best motivated by using messages that cast the Republicans as the danger or oppressor. Women will fear losing reproductive rights, and African Americans will be primed with threats to voting rights. Trump will also employ negative messaging, but Trump’s adoption of a negative campaign comes from a slightly different motivation. Trump’s core support consists of conservatives who are frustrated by a lack of cultural power and representation. This group is looking for someone who will fight for their values. This desire for a “fighting advocate” explains much of Trump’s appeal, as his supporters are enthusiastic about his “mean tweets and nicknames.” There will also be fear-based advertising as Harris will be positioned as wanting to defund police and open the border. Second, Trump wins in a close contest. Comparing Trump’s and Harris’ fandom and anti-fandom suggests the Harris campaign faces an uphill challenge. Despite the current blitz of enthusiasm for Harris as a replacement for a failing Joe Biden, her “brand” has not shown an ability to stimulate passion, and her dislike levels exceed Trump's. It seems unlikely that she will be able to inspire fans. While Trump has a significant fanbase and weaknesses in terms of strong anti-fandom levels in minority and cultural segments, he probably beat Clinton in 2016 because her anti-fandom was equivalent to his. In contrast, he lost to Biden because Biden had less anti-fandom (in 2020). Kamala Harris seems more like Clinton than Biden, so look for a similar outcome as in 2016. The bottom-line prediction: An exceptionally negative campaign, with Trump’s greater baseline fandom and Harris’s charisma deficit leading to a narrow Trump victory. As in 2016,Trump wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. Addendum: Future Fandom Lesson The structure of the American electorate and the propensity of people to vote based on identity rather than ideology mean that negative campaigns are the standard in the near future. The essential observation is that demographic trends create an electorate that is more a collection of identity segments than a homogeneous population that varies in ideology. An increasingly diverse electorate likely means increasingly negative presidential campaigns as negative or fear-based appeals are especially effective when elections focus on threats to identity groups. The tragedy of this situation is that the negative messages of campaigns amplify racial division and acrimony. When the next election occurs, the electorate is even more polarized, and negative or fear-based appeals are again the most effective. Mike Lewis is an expert in the areas of analytics and marketing. This approach makes Professor Lewis a unique expert on fandom as his work addresses the complete process from success on the field to success at the box office and the campaign trail. Michael is available to speak with media - simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today. Interested in following Future Fandom! Subscribe for free to receive new posts.
Could This Be the Ultimate Way to Showcase Your Experts?
Getting more media coverage is all about helping journalists find everything they need to get their stories out on deadline. Simple right? Well, that depends. Our research shows that most media relations and comms departments are significantly resource-constrained when it comes to pitching experts. And even when you are pitching it’s a challenge. Industry research shows that 97% of pitches fail to generate coverage. The secret is to publish content that draws in journalists in a way that helps them immediately understand (within seconds) how you can help them enhance their stories with your experts. What if there was a way to get all this done in minutes? Not days. Welcome to our latest Spotlight release, designed to help you organize your expert content in the most engaging ways possible. We’ve made enhancements in 5 key areas: Create a More Engaging Design that is Optimized for Mobile Your brand’s identity matters. Our new design ensures your Spotlight Posts reflect your unique style and voice. With bolder headers, enhanced logo placements, customizable fonts, and color schemes, you can create more visually stunning posts. And unlike a lot of other websites, your pages will be beautifully optimized for mobile—which is how most journalists will see your content. Tell a More Visual Story with Images Research from HubSpot indicates that content with relevant images gets 94% more views than content without. It’s time to get more visual. With our higher image resolution plus new editing tools like text wrap and captions, you can really make your images stand out. Plus we’ve helped solve the problem of sourcing images. We’ve now added access to thousands of royalty-free stock images for your posts - it’s all covered as part of your ExpertFile subscription. Make Your Experts Really Stand Out We’ve now made it even easier to display your experts more prominently with enhanced “expert callouts,” which are specially designed to engage journalists with the key information they are looking for. And our pagination features allow you to add content that sets your experts apart. Within seconds you can add videos and images or even stylized quotes from your previous media coverage. Leverage the Latest AI Tools for Faster Content Creation We’ve turbocharged our AI writing tools using OpenAI’s latest release. Enhance your content by generating innovative story ideas and draft posts with AI. This power is all conveniently built right into our editor to save you time. Save Time with Content Repurposing Creating high-quality content takes time and effort, and we want to help you get the most out of it. With our new publishing date feature, along with our current scheduling capabilities, it is easier than ever to make use of existing content effectively. This gives it a second life as part of your expertise marketing efforts while allowing you to better connect it to your experts to drive inquiries. Clone Your Posts for Even Faster Creation. Being able to leverage that perfectly crafted post going forward quickly and easily can help you jump on opportunities as they present themselves. With cloning you can take the layout elements and simply updated the content to highlight new experts or areas of expertise that you wish to showcase. And that's not all… You’ll still enjoy all the current benefits of "Spotlight Posts," including distribution through expertfile.com, integration into expert profiles, full SEO compliance with advanced meta and schema data, and various options for adding this valuable content to your website. Ready to elevate your expertise marketing game? Dive into these new features and watch your content—and your experts—shine brighter than ever. Want to see it in action? Check out the sample we’ve shown here, which we generated with Milwaukee School of Engineering (MSOE) to feature their experts during the Republican National Convention. We can also set you up with a customized demo showing how all this can make your experts stand out. Let us know what you think! About ExpertFile ExpertFile is changing the way organizations tap into the power of their experts to drive valuable inquiries, accelerate revenue growth, and enhance their brand reputation. Used by leading corporate, higher education and healthcare clients worldwide, our award-winning platform helps teams structure, manage and promote their expert content while our search engine features experts on over 50,000+ topics. Download our "Guide to Expertise Marketing", book a demo and more here.
Veronica Chandler’s north Wilmington home is her sanctuary, and it shows. From the soft instrumental music to the scent of lavender to the comfy seats that invite visitors to put up their feet, the message is clear – rest, relax, recharge. Original artwork by Veronica Chandler In this space, Chandler celebrates her rediscovered self, and it’s a journey she shares with all who visit. Part of the cozy feeling in her home comes from the artwork that lines the walls – mostly her own paintings and drawings created over the last six years as she navigates the challenges and triumphs of motherhood and discovers new ways to care for herself and those she loves. After experiencing anxiety, panic attacks and profound depression following the birth of her daughter in 2018, Chandler sought help at the ChristianaCare Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness, where a combination of medication and therapy helped her feel healthier and reconnected. She also returned to a former passion – art. “When I started painting, I found a way of silencing my brain, of calming it down. Being able to just focus on one thing on its own let my body regulate my nervous system,” she said. “I didn’t know what was happening to me. I just felt amazing.” More than ‘baby blues’ Perinatal mood and anxiety disorders are among the most common complications that occur in pregnancy or in the first year after delivery, according to the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. Although many parents experience feelings of anxiety, fatigue and sadness in the first days with a new baby, postpartum depression can occur several months after childbirth. Symptoms are often more severe and can include extreme stress. Despite increased awareness efforts in recent years, perinatal mood and anxiety disorders – including postpartum depression, which occurs in up to 20% of all births – remain underdiagnosed, untreated or undertreated, even though the health impact extends beyond the person giving birth, said Malina Spirito, Psy.D., MEd, director of the Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness. The center opened in 2013 to help patients and their loved ones understand the challenges associated with perinatal mood and anxiety disorders. Since then, the program has tripled the number of clinicians and expanded services to include inpatient and outpatient consultations, ongoing psychotherapy and psychiatric medication management. “Just because we know something is common does not mean we have to put up with it, especially because the effects will be lasting if we don’t address them,” Spirito said. “Perinatal mood disorders have an impact on the overall health of a family. When a mom feels better, the relationships they have with the people around them are better as well.” Breaking the ‘super mom’ stereotype Looking back, Chandler recognizes her struggles with sleeping and anxiety following the birth of her first child may have been signs of postpartum depression. The symptoms went away only to return after her daughter was born two years later. Veronica Chandler sought help from the ChristianaCare Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness for postpartum depression. Caring for herself helped her rediscover her love of creating art. Although overjoyed by her growing family, Chandler deeply missed her mother, who lived in her native Ecuador. Added to those challenges were longer stays in the hospital for Chandler, who had a Caesarean section birth, and for her daughter, who had some minor health issues. In the weeks after giving birth, Chandler battled dizziness caused by anemia. Though exhausted by caring for a newborn, she couldn’t sleep. She constantly felt on edge, and her skin itched without relief. Worried when her symptoms didn’t abate after three months, Chandler’s husband broached the idea of postpartum depression. For Chandler, it was a relief another person noticed something was wrong, but she was scared to think about what might be needed to get better. “I think we’re programmed by our cultures and by our beliefs to think that we need to be ‘super moms’ and give everything we have,” said Chandler, who grew up in Ecuador and moved to the United States after marrying her husband. “I was in such a fog that I didn’t know I could still shine and be happy and content. The default for so many moms is to pour until there’s nothing left.” ‘Rediscovering who I was’ Chandler sought help at the Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness and soon began taking an anti-depressant as part of her treatment. She also saw a therapist to talk about the feelings she was experiencing. “Therapy was such a big part of this whole journey of rediscovering who I was. When you talk and someone listens, you figure things out,” Chandler said. While on a trip to Arizona with a cousin, Chandler discovered kachina dolls, a Native American art form often used to provide guidance to young people and instill the connection between nature and the spirit. The intricately designed images further fueled Chandler’s reignited passion for art. That passion helped Chandler manage the additional challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic when her anxiety and depression resurfaced. Using painting, sculpture and other media, she has examined her own feelings relating to motherhood, family and society. Her work has been featured internationally in Vogue and closer to home in local art galleries. “Some people like to cook, and some people like to write. Art is my creative outlet that allowed me to come back to who I am,” she said. “We all have to release that creativity in some way.” Entering care sooner While the Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness has always focused on pregnant and postpartum patients, it has grown to address mental health needs related to preconception health, including artificial reproductive technology such as in vitro fertilization, Spirito said. The center also sees patients grieving a pregnancy or neonatal loss. More people are thinking about their mental health before they give birth, said Malina Spirito, Psy.D., MEd, director of the ChristianaCare Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness. “One of the most notable observations I’ve seen over the years is that birthing people are entering care sooner. It isn’t uncommon for women to seek out consultation prior to getting pregnant about how to manage their mood disorder should they become pregnant,” said Megan O’Hara, LCSW, a behavioral health therapist with the Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness. “Patients are educating themselves now and expecting their providers to consider their mental health as well as their physical health when getting care.” Women’s mental health care also has become more accessible, said Cynthia Guy, LMSW, MSCC, a women’s health behavioral consultant with the Center for Women’s Emotional Wellness. Behavioral health services are available in every ChristianaCare women’s health practice, including virtual and in-person care. “I can be the bridge connecting the patient with the resources they need to help them manage symptoms and what they are going through,” Guy said. Filling the cup As a result of her own experiences, Chandler teaches classes to help other mothers create their own art as a means of expression. It’s a small way of helping them to fill their own cup. The woman who once hid in her own closet to hide her feelings speaks openly about mental health with the hope people will lose their preconceived ideas about depression and anxiety. “I am so thankful for the journey and the many people I’ve met that have postpartum depression,” she said. “When we talk about what makes the best moms, I think the best mom is a healthy mom who is in balance and harmony.”
Covering the latest in Venezuela?
The history of Venezuelan politics is a compelling narrative that reflects the dynamic interplay of power, ideology, and social change in Latin America. This topic is particularly newsworthy due to its relevance in understanding current global geopolitical shifts, the rise and fall of political regimes, and the enduring struggle for democracy and human rights. Venezuela's political history offers insights into the impacts of oil wealth, populism, and international interventions, making it a rich subject for journalistic exploration. Key story angles for journalists could include: The Rise of Populism: Exploring the emergence and impact of populist leaders in Venezuelan history, particularly focusing on Hugo Chávez's Bolivarian Revolution. Economic Boom and Bust: Analyzing the role of oil wealth in shaping Venezuela's political landscape, from periods of prosperity to economic crises. Human Rights and Social Movements: Investigating the human rights situation in Venezuela, including the struggles of political dissidents, social activists, and the general population. International Relations and Influence: Examining Venezuela's foreign policy, its alliances, and the impact of international sanctions and interventions on its political stability. Democratic Erosion and Authoritarianism: Tracing the decline of democratic institutions and the rise of authoritarian practices in Venezuela, highlighting key turning points and figures. Future Prospects and Reform: Featuring expert analysis on the potential paths forward for Venezuela, including political reforms, economic recovery plans, and the role of the international community. By delving into these aspects, journalists can provide a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of Venezuelan politics, offering readers diverse perspectives and in-depth coverage of a nation at the crossroads of significant historical and contemporary challenges. Connect with an expert if you need to know more about the History of Venezuelan Politics: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com Photo credit: Micho
Covering the race for the White House? Georgia Southern's presidency expert can help
It has been far from a quiet summer on the American political scene. Each day seems to bring a different twist of turn for both parties seeking to claim power in the upcoming November elections. And if you're covering - Georgia Southern University political science professor Joshua Kennedy, Ph.D., is here to help with any question you may have, angle you're looking to explore or simply be a reliable, informed and objective source for your stories. Kennedy's principal area of study and teaching is in American politics, with a more particular focus on the presidency and the federal bureaucracy. His research has appeared in such outlets as American Politics Research, Research and Politics and Presidential Studies Quarterly, and he is a renowned expert for local, regional and national media when it comes to the American presidency. So if you have a story to file between now and November 05 - simply click on Joshua Kennedy's icon now to arrange an interview today.
