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Aston University AI expertise helps estimate daily transmission rates of infections such as Covid

Model used antibody data collected at blood donation centres Data obtained allowed academics to estimate the proportion of people who were going undiagnosed Current epidemiological models tend not to be as effective at estimating hidden variables such as daily infection rates. Aston University researchers have helped develop a mathematical model which can estimate daily transmission rates of infections such as Covid by testing for antibodies in blood collected at blood donation centres. Current epidemiological models that are usually used tend not to be as effective at adjusting quickly to changes in infection levels. Working with researchers at the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in Brazil they conducted a large longitudinal study applying a compartmental model, which is a general modelling technique often applied to the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, to results obtained from Brazilian blood donor centres. The testing was done by Fundacao Hemominas, one of the largest blood services in Brazil, which covers an area similar to that of continental France. They used the reported number of SARS-CoV-2 cases along with serology results (diagnostic methods used to identify antibodies and antigens in patients’ samples) from blood donors as inputs and delivered estimates of hidden variables, such as daily values of transmission rates and cumulative incidence rate of reported and unreported cases. The model discussed in the paper SARS-CoV-2 IgG Seroprevalence among Blood Donors as a Monitor of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Brazil gave the experts the ability to have a more refined view of the infection rates and relative rate of immunity compared to official measurements. The testing started at the beginning of the pandemic and involved 7,837 blood donors in seven cities in Minas Gerais, Brazil during March–December 2020. At that point testing wasn’t widely available and there was a high proportion of undetected asymptomatic or light symptomatic cases. The data obtained allowed the experts to estimate the proportion of people who were going undiagnosed. Dr Felipe Campelo, senior lecturer in computer science at Aston University, said: “Public communication about the COVID-19 epidemic was based on officially reported cases in the community, which strongly underestimates the actual spread of the disease in the absence of widespread testing. “This difference underscores the convenience of using a model-based approach such as the one we proposed, because it enables the use of measured data for estimating variables such as the total number of infected persons. “Our model delivers daily estimates of relevant variables that usually stay hidden, including the transmission rate and the cumulative number of reported and unreported cases of infection.” In Brazil in July 2020 there was a sharp increase in the number of people tested as new infrastructure became available, which allowed the experts to further validate their methodology by observing how officially recorded data became closer to the model predictions once testing became more widespread, including for asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people. They applied the model to antibodies found in blood given by donors and used it to estimate the proportion of undiagnosed cases, and to analyse changes in the infection rate, that is, how many people each case infected on average. Previously this has been viewed as a fixed value or a fixed value over a long duration of time, but the dynamics of the spread of Covid change much faster than that. This aspect was very important in early days of the pandemic and could also be applied to similar diseases. Looking forward, the experts aim to improve the accuracy of the model by introducing changes to account for vaccination effects, waning immunity and the potential emergence of new variants. The paper SARS-CoV-2 IgG Seroprevalence among Blood Donors as a Monitor of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Brazil has been published in Volume 28, Number 4—April 2022 of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

Aston University research to support SMEs and mid-sized companies to be ‘future ready’

‘Future readiness’ is defined as a set of capabilities and orientations that enable companies to thrive in the future Researchers say SMEs and mid-sized companies’ leadership should focus on bridging their resilience gap and exploiting their high level of agility The report found circular economy can combat environment and social impact without sacrificing economic performance. A new report from Aston University has highlighted opportunities for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and mid-sized companies to develop strategies and pathways to increase their future readiness. The report defines future readiness as “a set of capabilities and orientations that enable companies to thrive in the future”. For SMEs and mid-sized businesses to be future-ready, they must be successful on the three pillars of long-term growth, societal impact and adaptive capacity. Experts say they must be able to generate lasting financial strength driven by innovative business models, products and/or services, to affect society positively in line with environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals and to develop high levels of resilience and agility, which enables them to bounce back in difficult times and to identify and seize opportunities as they emerge, creating disruption in business models for the future. The report aims to support leadership teams and the wider ecosystem in understanding how they can help increase the capacity for smaller companies to thrive and positively impact the economy and environment, as well as aid the recovery from the pandemic. Experts also say that circular economy adoption, where the ‘make, use and throw away’ supply chain is converted to ‘take, make, distribute, use and recycle’, in SMEs and mid-sized companies creates a win-win situation for every supply chain stakeholder through sustainability measures to achieve economic, environment and social performance. The World Economic Forum will use the insights generated in this report to further support SMEs and mid-sized companies in their future readiness journey. This will be done through the creation of additional resources, including the continuous development of the Forum’s self-assessment and benchmarking tool on future readiness, the creation of a platform for informal peer-to-peer learning between companies and meet ups with key experts. Prasanta Kumar Dey, professor in operations and information management at Aston Business School and lead author of the report, said: “The post-COVID-19 era is significantly more challenging than most people had initially hoped. Heightened geopolitical tensions, the energy crisis, supply chain disruptions, hyperinflation and extreme weather events are just a few of the difficulties that will make the next decade a demanding one. “SMEs and mid-sized companies’ leadership should try to focus on bridging their resilience gap and exploiting their high level of agility, afforded by their smaller size, as a competitive advantage. “Future readiness capability building should not be developed as ad-hoc initiatives but should be embedded into key corporate strategies and decision-making processes, ideally from the beginning, so that it becomes part of the fundamental building blocks of the company. “While smaller companies can go a long way in building their future readiness, it is important to recognise the direct and important impact that their wider policy environment has on their ability to thrive. It is therefore crucial for policymakers, investors and other stakeholders to do what is in their capabilities to contribute to building the future readiness of this segment of the economy. “One of the high-impact areas of intervention at the system levels revolves around digital trade and includes implementing targeted measures to harmonize and drive trade data interoperability across borders and supply chains. This would greatly contribute to making it easier for smaller companies to trade internationally.” You can find out more about the report findings here.

UConn Expert, 10 Years after Sandy Hook, on the Lies that 'Plague the U.S.'

UConn professor and journalist Amanda J. Crawford considers the misinformation that spread like wildfire after tragic school shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School to be "the first major conspiracy theory of the modern social media age."  Ten years after 26 young students and school staff were killed in the massacre, the impact of that day in 2012 continues to reverberate in America today. On this solemn anniversary, Crawford writes about the aftermath of Sandy Hook misinformation in a new essay for The Conversation:   Conspiracy theories are powerful forces in the U.S. They have damaged public health amid a global pandemic, shaken faith in the democratic process and helped spark a violent assault on the U.S. Capitol in January 2021. These conspiracy theories are part of a dangerous misinformation crisis that has been building for years in the U.S. While American politics has long had a paranoid streak, and belief in conspiracy theories is nothing new, outlandish conspiracy theories born on social media now regularly achieve mainstream acceptance and are echoed by people in power. Recently, one of the most popular American conspiracy theorists faced consequences in court for his part in spreading viral lies. Right-wing radio host Alex Jones and his company, Infowars, were ordered by juries in Connecticut and Texas to pay nearly $1.5 billion in damages to relatives of victims killed in a mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School a decade ago. Jones had falsely claimed that the shooting was a hoax. As a journalism professor at the University of Connecticut, I have studied the misinformation that surrounded the mass shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, on Dec. 14, 2012 – including Jones’ role in spreading it to his audience of millions. I consider it the first major conspiracy theory of the modern social media age, and I believe we can trace our current predicament to the tragedy’s aftermath. Ten years ago, the Sandy Hook shooting demonstrated how fringe ideas could quickly become mainstream on social media and win support from various establishment figures – even when the conspiracy theory targeted grieving families of young students and school staff killed during the massacre. Those who claimed the tragedy was a hoax showed up in Newtown and harassed people connected to the shooting. This provided an early example of how misinformation spread on social media could cause real-world harm. Amanda J. Crawford is a veteran political reporter, literary journalist, and expert in journalism ethics, misinformation, conspiracy theories, and the First Amendment. Click on her icon now to arrange an interview with her today.

Is the sun set to shine again on a rebounding Florida tourism economy?

It was a tough couple of years for the Florida tourism industry. With flights restricted, travel discouraged and theme parks closed or limiting the number of guests, Florida felt the full economic brunt of the pandemic when the tourists stopped coming. To put it in perspective: In 2020, Walt Disney World took a $7 billion loss. But with COVID all but a memory, the rebound already is in full swing with visitors and their disposable income returning to the Sunshine State. Florida tourism exploded to record numbers as the state has welcomed 104.5 million visitors so far this year, a 15.3 percent increase over the same time period in 2021, according to the offices of Gov. Ron DeSantis and Visit Florida. In the third quarter alone, Florida welcomed 35.1 million tourists – a 6.9 increase from the same period in 2021 and the fifth quarter in a row that saw overall visitation surpassing pre-pandemic levels. About 32.6 million domestic visitors traveled to Florida in the third quarter period of 2022.  Islander News - December 2022 But still after such a slowdown, should we be cautious? What can tourism operators, hoteliers and the rest of the hospitality industry expect for 2023? With COVID no longer a deterrent, will a shaky economy be the next shoe to drop? Or, after being stuck at home for so long, will visitors help places such as Disney, Universal and LEGOLAND become recession-proof? These are great questions, and if you are a journalist covering the 2023 tourism season in Florida, let us help. Peter Ricci, Ph.D., is a clinical associate professor and director of the Hospitality and Tourism Management program in Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business. He is a hospitality industry veteran with more than 20 years of managerial experience in segments including food service, lodging, incentive travel and destination marketing. Peter is available to speak with the media about space-travel tourism as well as other topics, including the labor shortage in hospitality and tourism. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

ChristianaCare Earns IABC Silver Quill Award for Innovative Use of Technology to Connect Journalists and News Producers with Health Care Experts

ExpertFile-powered “Our Experts” site makes health experts findable and accessible to media at a click of a button ChristianaCare and its collaborative partner ExpertFile have been recognized with a 2022 Silver Quill Award from the International Association of Business Communicators (IABC) for its "Our Experts" media database. Designed to easily and quickly connect journalists to subject-matter experts, this online resource has been recognized with the top prize – an “Award of Excellence” in the Communications Management, Media Relations category. The IABC Silver Quill Awards showcase business communication excellence and are acknowledged as among the most prestigious awards programs in the communications industry. “I’m proud to accept the Silver Quill Award on behalf of our organization and our incredible Communications team, including our ExpertFile partners,” said Shane Hoffman, communications director at ChristianaCare. “The ‘Our Experts’ platform has given us next-level ways to engage our experts and share our knowledge as a trusted source of health care information. It has also helped us re-imagine the traditional online news room experience and turn it into a truly new and innovative way to serve the needs of both journalists and our community.” IABC’s Silver Quill awards honor the dedication, innovation and passion of communicators on a global scale. Each entry is scored independently by evaluators who judge the award submission on factors that include: stakeholder analysis, strategic and tactical planning, quality of execution and measurable results. Since launching in March 2021, the "Our Experts" media database has received more than 20,000 online visits and has resulted in more than 200 news stories. “We are honored to earn this Silver Quill Award with our client, ChristianaCare,” said Peter Evans, CEO of ExpertFile. “Despite the pressures of the pandemic, their team collaborated closely with us to create a world-class program that continues to help a variety of audiences discover and connect every day with credible medical experts and groundbreaking research.” Powered by the ExpertFile software platform, the ChristianaCare “Our Experts” site provides a digital media toolkit with advanced search/digital content features to help journalists discover experts and access resources that make it easier for them to complete stories and meet their deadlines. Awarding top honors “with distinction,” the IABC judging panel provided a number of detailed comments on the “ChristianaCare Experts Program”: “Very well-done website. Nice content that is well organized and searchable. From planning and implementation to measurement afterward the program shows great work.” “Great work in the time of COVID. Your knowledge of journalists and their challenges. during COVID was spot-on.” “I liked the media advisories. Having been on both sides of the reporter/media relations thing, I like clear and simple. You achieved this!” “If I were a reporter, the advisory would be invaluable when I needed an expert.” “Very specific and focused on business-results. Great work here.” “Very comprehensive! You thought of everything without getting bogged down in unnecessary details.” Nearly 100 ChristianaCare experts are featured in the database today, and that number continues to grow. “As communicators in health care, it has always been important for us to provide timely, accurate, easy-to-understand information to the communities we serve so that people can make informed decisions about their health,” said Karen Browne, vice president of marketing and communications at ChristianaCare. “The COVID-19 pandemic added an entirely new level of urgency to our role as communicators, and it made it even more important for us to build strong relationships with our partners in the news media so that they can deliver compelling, actionable health information to the community—from experts they can trust.” The pandemic also highlighted the need to do more with less. ChristianaCare’s innovation was driven out of a desire to improve the reach, impact and efficiency of its media relations efforts—amid rapidly increasing demand—without the need to add additional resources. “With our partners at ExpertFile, we leveraged ExpertFile’s outstanding technology platform to create a database of our experts that helps reporters and news producers find the sources they need quickly, and it enables our team to nimbly manage their requests and facilitate interviews in a way that makes the absolute best use of our resources,” Hoffman said. “The ExpertFile team worked as our strategic thought partners throughout this process, and they’ve really embraced our desire for innovation that drives results. They’ve helped us to work smarter and do more without adding a lot of additional resources. Together, we’ve built a system and process that is helping us to communicate in new and better ways—and we’re just getting started.” About ChristianaCare Headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware, ChristianaCare is one of the country’s most dynamic health care organizations, centered on improving health outcomes, making high-quality care more accessible and lowering health care costs. ChristianaCare includes an extensive network of primary care and outpatient services, home health care, urgent care centers, three hospitals (1,299 beds), a freestanding emergency department, a Level I trauma center and a Level III neonatal intensive care unit, a comprehensive stroke center and regional centers of excellence in heart and vascular care, cancer care and women’s health. It also includes the pioneering Gene Editing Institute. ChristianaCare is nationally recognized as a great place to work, rated by Forbes as the 2nd best health system for diversity and inclusion, and the 29th best health system to work for in the United States, and by IDG Computerworld as one of the nation’s Best Places to Work in IT. ChristianaCare is rated by Healthgrades as one of America’s 50 Best Hospitals and continually ranked among the nation’s best by U.S. News & World Report, Newsweek and other national quality ratings. ChristianaCare is a nonprofit teaching health system with more than 260 residents and fellows. With its groundbreaking Center for Virtual Health and a focus on population health and value-based care, ChristianaCare is shaping the future of health care.

Baylor Expert: Finding Work-Life Balance with Remote Work

Before March 2020, the idea of remote work was not a realistic option for many businesses. However, the COVID-19 pandemic changed options drastically for employees almost overnight, and the remote work experiment began. Fast forward to today, and traditional work styles are no longer considered the only option and many employees are looking for the freedom to choose where they work. Remote work is generally viewed positively, but it has its own distinct set of challenges, and businesses that help employees respond to these challenges will benefit with a more productive and healthier workforce, said remote/hybrid work expert Sara J. Perry, Ph.D., The Ben Williams Professor of Management at Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business. This is especially important as remote work continues to be a popular option. According to a Gallup poll conducted in August 2022, 34% of employees prefer to work exclusively remote, 60% said they would like a hybrid model and only 6% would like to return to a traditional full-time on-site model. Two keys to success for remote work: flexibility and intentionality Perry has researched the issues around changes to the workplace for over a decade. In a recent article, Interruptions in Remote Work: A Resource-based Model of Work and Family Stress, published in the Journal of Business and Psychology, Perry and her research team surveyed 391 couples to understand the difficulties in finding the balance between work and family when at least one of them works from home. The research shows the keys to success for remote work are flexibility and intentionality. “You can't have a one-size-fits-all; it has to be a nuanced approach,” Baylor University's Sara J. Perry said. Perry identified two risks to successful remote working: Increased interruptions from family members Blurring of work life with family life Develop healthy break habits Unexpected work interruptions make it difficult to focus on the work tasks, and the lack of boundaries between work and family can turn job duties into a non-stop endeavor for the remote employee. These interruptions can cause frustration, a lack of focus and difficulties getting back on task that can eventually put stress on family relationships. “The simple act of establishing effective breaks during work hours can help people sustain their well-being and job satisfaction without sacrificing productivity. The negative effects of not establishing healthy break habits include increased stress for the employee and their family,” Perry said. “If you’re using your breaks wisely, the study suggests that those intentional breaks reduce the damage that interruptions.” A good place to start for remote employees is incorporating some non-work goals into breaks throughout the workday, which can be as simple as starting or finishing a household chore. According to Perry, these activities make a difference in overall stress, engagement and productivity. Breaks focused on self care are also important to include throughout the workday. “Meditating or taking a nap makes you feel restored because you are doing things that make you feel accomplished and give your brain a break from your actual work,” Perry said. Employers also have an important role to play in establish a habit of intentional work breaks. “A lot of people say, ‘I never take breaks,’ or ‘I don't take enough breaks,’” Perry said. “By offering staff the autonomy to plan their own workday that includes breaks without guilt, employers also benefit. Reducing the stress of struggling to maintain a work-life balance will also reduce burnout.” Understanding how to overcome these and other remote work challenges requires employers and employees be “intentional about meaningful communications and connections,” Perry said. She added that leaders who recognize the importance of work versus family time can help employees to develop strategies that allow them to grow and learn while maintaining a healthy balance between work and family.

UConn's Sandra Chafouleas and Feel Your Best Self -- using puppets to support children's social-emotional well-being

The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on America's children -- parents lost jobs, kids weren't able to go to school, and they were told it was dangerous to see their friends.  From a child's point of view, they seemed to have a lot, if not nearly everything, taken away, and many are still struggling today. Recently, NPR took a deeper look at the challenges kids are facing and found one creative solution that's helping elementary school children to change negative thinking patterns, better understand others' motivations, and face fears that may fuel unhealthy avoidance behaviors. UConn expert Sandra Chafouleas, a professor and school psychologist, is a co-creator of the new program -- called Feel Your Best Self -- which uses puppets to help children develop their social-emotional skills and well-being.  During the pandemic, Wicks sent emails to researchers at the University of Connecticut's Neag School of Education, fishing for collaborators. She'd been wanting to put more of their work online. Her pitch: You want to help kids right now, and we have puppets. One of those emails went to Sandy Chafouleas, a UConn professor and trained school psychologist. Chafouleas was worried about all that extra stress on kids returning from the pandemic and that schools wouldn't be able to help them. "Teachers were stressed. Systems were stressed. Nobody had time to do professional learning to do something complex. That's just ridiculous to think that they could've," Chafouleas says. Denoya, the first-grade teacher at Natchaug Elementary, has seen it firsthand: Kids returned from the pandemic with missing or rusty social and emotional skills. They had trouble sharing, learning how to take turns and dealing with disappointment. "There's just things that they missed out on with not having that socialization, and so we need to find a place to teach it at school too," Denoya says. Anticipating this need, Chafouleas and Wicks cooked up Feel Your Best Self. The idea was, these scripted puppet videos would be easy — and free — for schools to use, even if they don't have a trained mental health specialist on-hand. Which many don't. Or they have one, spread across hundreds and hundreds of kids. That includes Natchaug, where Principal Eben Jones has been unable to fill a vacant school psychologist position for the past two years. Jones says that hasn't stopped him and his staff from prioritizing this kind of emotional and social skill-building. "It is embedded daily," Jones says. "Every teacher has time in the morning to have a morning meeting. And in that morning meeting they build community, share a morning message, you know, play a team-building game and make sure kids are connected to each other." This school year, Denoya and her students are doing one FYBS lesson each week. The FYBS program has exploded over the past year, thanks in part to a flood of grant funding. What began last year at Natchaug with a small team performing virtually – and live, not recorded – in one classroom at a time, became a Herculean effort to script, cast and shoot not one but 12 unique videos, with multiple puppets and performers, that teachers and caregivers can access anytime online, at no cost – in both English and Spanish. "Emily and I often feel like we're hanging on to the end of the caboose right now. This has scaled in ways that are unimaginable," says Chafouleas. Sandra Chafouleas is a UConn Board of Trustees Distinguished Professor of Educational Psychology and an expert on social-emotional well-being. She's available to speak with the media today -- just click her icon to arrange an interview.

New research highlights the economic importance of live music to Birmingham and the West Midlands

It found local authorities need to more explicitly recognise the economic, social and cultural value of live music and live music venues The report calls for dialogue between music stakeholders and government The research is published by Aston University and supported by the AHRC-funded Creative Industries Policy and Evidence Centre. New research by the Birmingham Live Music Project (BLMP) highlights the huge economic value of Birmingham’s live music scene, the vital contribution small independent venues make, the ongoing impact of the pandemic and what is needed to support the recovery of the sector in the city. The research is published by Aston University, with colleagues from Newcastle University and Birmingham City University, and supported by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC)-funded Creative Industries Policy and Evidence Centre. In 2019, the UK’s live music sector was valued at over £1.3 billion. After almost a decade of strong growth the sector helped push the UK music’s overall GVA from £3.5 billion in 2012 to £5.8 billion in 2019, the outbreak of the global pandemic brought it to a near standstill. This paper explores, through a local lens and a focus on Birmingham, the challenges stakeholders across the live music sector have faced in recent years. The research finds that small live music venues are the lifeblood of this financial, cultural and community asset for the city. In 2019 Birmingham helped bring 877,000 music tourists to the West Midlands, with a total cultural spend in the region of £252,000,000 (UK Music). But during summer 2020, the research published today found, Birmingham’s live music capacity of approx. 98,000 dropped by around 75%. This impacted ticket prices, the availability of events across the city, and the economic viability of shows – while some venues could stay open, they couldn’t make a profit. The report makes clear independent venues need protection and support particularly in the wake of the pandemic. It calls for dialogue between music stakeholders and government in advance of the 2025 review of the EU-UK Trade and Co-Operation Agreement to identify the best means of reducing friction and support for the efforts to improve the Agreement, for example work on border force training, expanding the number of checkpoints where carnets and Music Instrument Certificates can be checked, reducing bureaucracy for live event transport and haulage, examination of further measures to develop the ’dual registration’ system for specialist hauliers to ease pressure on touring. Dr Patrycja Rozbicka, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Aston University and one of the report authors, said: “Local authorities need to more explicitly recognise the economic, social and cultural value of live music and live music venues, including grassroots venues, to their region(s). “Environmental, health, culture and city regeneration strategies have to take account of the existing and huge potential contribution of live music to the city and region. “What is needed is a cross-policy approach, implementation of a Night-time Industry Impact Assessment and dialogue between local authorities and the music sector, where the recently launched West Midlands Music Board could play a role. “We would like to see the creation of information hubs to support local venues and audiences with initiatives such those undertaken by the Liverpool City Region including a Music Fund which supports activities of the Liverpool City Region Music Board as well as helping with funding applications and advice. You can read the full report here.

Aston University financial regulation expert suggests new way to cure poor countries’ credit crisis in new book

New approach to help ease poor countries’ debt burden Many face having national credit rating downgraded Aston University expert coins the term the ‘credit rating impasse’ in new book. An Aston University financial regulation expert has suggested a new approach to help ease poor countries’ debt burden. Currently many poorer countries face having their credit rating downgraded if they ask private investors for loans. Dr Daniel Cash, senior lecturer in law and founder of the Credit Rating Research Initiative, has suggested that a temporary change to the way ratings are decided could help these countries avoid a damaging credit rating, which would prevent them borrowing money in the future. His theory is explored in his new book Sovereign Debt Sustainability: Multilateral Debt Treatment and the Credit Rating Impasse. The study details the history of multilateral debt treatment in Africa, whilst also looking at the impact of the pandemic. When vulnerable countries try to negotiate new lending terms with their lenders their credit rating is immediately downgraded, in some cases they could be labelled as in default - failing to repay a loan. Dr Cash calls this situation the ‘credit rating impasse’. To avoid this happening, he argues that other factors should be temporarily taken into account, making it easier for them to borrow money in the future to spend on improvements such as healthcare or infrastructure. The UN has identified 54 developing economies with severe debt problems. While accounting for little more than 3% of the global economy, they represent 18% of the world’s population, and more than 50% of people living in extreme poverty. The book sets out a new framework which could be used to overlie the existing credit rating system. The book suggests considering factors such as ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) – which indicates a country’s impact on society, the environment, and how transparent and accountable it is. Taking ESG and sustainability factors into account indicates if a nation has the potential to grow while benefiting the environment and communities. Dr Cash said: “The credit rating impasse is a systemic problem, and a cure is needed to prevent the bankruptcy of countries around the world. “Lower-income states are being forced to prioritise debt payments over public spending on healthcare or access to food. “Instead, they should be offered help to enable borrowing to make vital improvements.” The book is free to read via Open Access Book and was funded by the Open Society Foundations (OSF).

Deprivation in childhood linked to impulsive behaviour in adulthood – new study

Inflation is running high around the globe, largely fuelled by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the COVID pandemic. As a result, many households are having to choose between eating and heating. Deprivation has a terrible immediate effect on children – as anyone who has experienced real hunger knows – but it can also affect things like impulsive behaviour in later life. “Trait impulsivity”, the preference for immediate gratification, has been linked to spending more on food, especially unhealthy, highly calorific food. Studies have shown that children who experience poverty and food insecurity tend to have a higher body-mass index as adults than those who do not. In a study published in Scientific Reports earlier this year, my colleagues and I showed that children who experience deprivation make more impulsive choices than children who don’t. We studied 146 children, with an average age of eight, living in some of the most deprived areas of England and compared them with children living in some of the most affluent neighbourhoods. Children were given a choice between taking home a small amount of money (for example, £1) or getting £10 a week, or even more a year later. How long a person is willing to wait for the larger amount of money can be used to calculate a “discount rate” that shows how much the waiting time reduces the value of the money. An impulsive person might prefer £1 now because the value of £10 in six months is “discounted” to less than £1 right now. This means that, for them, the £10, is discounted by £9 over the six-month wait. A less impulsive person might be willing to wait six months for £10, but not wait for a whole year for £15. This means that, for them, the value of the £15 is discounted by £5 over the additional six-month wait. This discount rate is a measure of how impulsive someone is. The results showed that children living in the most deprived areas had significantly higher discount rates than children living in the least deprived areas, regardless of age or intelligence, indicating that deprivation was the causal factor in the children’s choice. A stable trait This preference for immediate outcomes is a stable personality trait that remains constant throughout a person’s life. In our most recent study, published by the Royal Society, we investigated impulsivity in over 1,000 older adults aged between 50 and 90. We found that older adults, living in the most deprived areas, show the same preference for smaller-sooner financial outcomes as the children in our first study. We also found that a person’s job predicted the choices they made. Adults working in technical or routine occupations, such as mechanics or cleaners, chose to receive smaller amounts of money than wait for larger amounts compared with people in professional occupations, such as engineers or scientists. These findings are concerning because impulsivity doesn’t just predict obesity. These findings tell us a lot about why people living in poorer areas tend to be unhealthier than people living in wealthy areas. People who experience deprivation as children are more likely to choose to do things that, although they might be pleasurable in the short term, are unhealthy in the long run. This includes overeating, taking drugs, smoking cigarettes and gambling. We know too, that impulsivity can help to explain why some people go on to become addicts, while other people can avoid some of the more harmful effects of drugs and alcohol. Deprivation is one of many factors that can lead to impulsive behaviour throughout a person’s lifetime. Genetics also plays a role in impulsivity. Policymakers can’t do anything about a person’s genes but they can influence the nation’s long-term mental and physical health by minimising child poverty. Failing to do so will have long-term implications for the children living through today’s cost of living crisis.