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As Mayor Pete pops and Democrats feel the ‘Bern’ – is Biden a bust for the third time?
As the results from Iowa seem to be still trickling in, it looks like it could be either a slim lead or even a pretty much statistical tie between Indiana’s (former) Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Both spent a lot of time, money and energy campaigning across Iowa and that seems to have paid off. For Democratic candidate Joe Biden – it must feel like Groundhog Day. For the third time, his presidential bid that started with high hopes and promise seems to be crashing down in front of him. And as the critical primary in New Hampshire approaches – there are a lot of questions to be asked as this once crowded field of close to two dozen might be down to four or even fewer. Can Biden recover? With two losses in a row, can he sustain, and should he? What about Elizabeth Warren? If her ‘plan’ can’t attract the support of even 15 percent of any primary, perhaps it’s back to the drawing board? And what are the key differences between Buttigieg and Sanders? Which one has the upper hand with voters, organizers and finances? Oh … and the legend of Michael Bloomberg and his gold-plated campaign team are reaching an almost legendary status. When is the time right for the former mayor of New York City and does he risk being too late to the game? It is going to be a wild-ride for those who follow politics over the next few months and if you are a journalist covering this road to November – let our experts help. Mark Caleb Smith is the Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. Mark and Marc are both available to speak with media regarding the DNC Primary and the upcoming election. Simply click on either icon to arrange an interview. Dr. Marc Clauson is a professor of history and law at Cedarville and is an expert in the fields of political and economic philosophy.
If it's an election in America or Asia – Mary Washington’s experts are sought out by media
The election in Taiwan on January 10 saw a strong anti-China sentiment reinforced with the re-election of President Tsai Ing-wen. Elections in America, and even an ocean away can have ripple effects on economies, relations and even national security. As the world tuned in the results in Taiwan – it was the media that contacted the experts from Mary Washington for insight and opinion. Elizabeth Freund Larus, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, offered commentary January 10 on CNBC Asia’s Capital Connection on the 2020 Taiwan presidential election. Professor Larus indicated that incumbent Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen benefited from the Hong Kong protests and that she would likely be re-elected. Dr. Larus projected that a second Tsai administration will continue to diversify Taiwan’s economy and distance itself from China, and that Beijing will put more heat on Taipei, bringing the U.S. into play. Capital Connection is a television business news program aired every weekday on various CNBC channels around the world. It is broadcast live from Singapore. See more here: Are you a journalist covering Asian politics? That’s where our experts can help. Professor Elizabeth Freund Larus teaches political science at the University of Mary Washington and is an #expert on China and the field of Asian studies. She is available to speak to media – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview.
The election is on. In fact, it’s as if the campaign of the 2016 election has never come to a finish. U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy of constant rallies, speeches and campaign stops has essentially meant the Republican incumbent has been on the stump for the better part of almost five years now. On the other side, at one time last year, there were more than two dozen contenders vying for the right to represent the Democrats. That field has been whittled down to about half of that, and it is expected to continue shrinking now that primaries are in play and the financial costs of keeping up will become a reality. So, if there were to be an actual starting point for the November election – this week could be it. On Monday, the Iowa Caucus kicks off what could be months of rigorous and aggressive campaigning for Democrats. The winner Monday will have a huge boost, but after that it’ll be all eyes on New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and then Super Tuesday. Also, this week, the President will deliver the State of the Union. The timing of this speech could be the change of channel the President needs as the clouds of impeachment linger. As well, the speech and the huge audience it gathers could set the tone of what's to come on the campaign trail. For political junkies and journalists – it is going to be a busy nine months. And if you are a reporter covering the primaries, politics and the presidential election – then let our experts help. The team from FAU can help with a variety of topics that will inevitably be part of or influence the policies and platforms of each party and candidate. Kevin Wagner's research and teaching interests include presidential and judicial politics, political behavior and legislative behavior. He is also a research fellow of the FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative (BEPI). Robert Rabil is an expert in political Islam, terrorism, U.S. foreign policy, and U.S.-Arab relations. Kelly Shannon specializes in the history of U.S. foreign relations, with particular attention to the Middle East and the 20th century. Colin Polsky is trained as a geographer, specializing in the human dimensions of global environmental change. He also oversees FAU's quarterly environmental poll. All of these experts from Florida Atlantic University are available to help with any of your questions or coverage – simply click on an expert’s icon to arrange an interview today.
If anyone thought 2020 was going to come in quietly – that theory was likely proven wrong in less than a week. With the DNC primaries in high gear, impeachment trials with testimonies, witnesses and wall to wall rhetoric and now 2nd Amendment rallies capturing national attention in Virginia – political reporters are being pulled in many different directions, and all at the same time it seems. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is a sought-after political commentator on subjects ranging from presidential politics to the local Virginia congressional races. He has been widely featured in national media, including The Washington Post, Reuters, The Chicago Tribune and MSNBC. He is author or co-author of multiple books on presidential communication. His latest work, "Late Night with Trump - Political Humor and the American Presidency," examines how the treatment of President Trump differs from previous presidents, and how the Trump era is likely to shape the future of political humor. He recently delivered an invited lecture entitled, “A Review of the 2019 Virginia Midterm Elections and a Preview of the 2020 Legislative Session,” at the Virginia Executive Institute Alumni Association Meeting in Chesterfield, VA. An expert on more than just state politics, Farnsworth has also been recently contacted by national and international media for his keen perspective and expert opinion on political matters that are affecting issues across all of America. Dr. Farnsworth is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview today.
It’ll be early mornings and long nights for just about anyone involved in covering, watching or taking part in the impeachment hearings of President Donald Trump. With an impeachment trial, there is process, debate, strategy and rhetoric. The goal for Democrats will be a guilty verdict that will remove a sitting President from office. Some experts aren’t sure if this monumental event will have any troubling repercussions on Trump’s campaign for re-election this fall. “We did see some minor impacts of impeachment in the past,” says Matt Grossmann, professor of political science and director of MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research. “We’re talking pretty minor effects. It’s hard to see it making a big difference in what happens come November. I certainly don’t think you can either count him out or say that he’s going to cruise to victory. I think we’re going to see a competitive presidential election.” And when it comes to the details of removal from office and the difference between a criminal act and what an actual impeachable offence is according to the constitution - seems to be getting lost on most inside and outside of the Senate. “I wrote months ago that one side would argue that President Trump had to commit a crime to be removed from office while the other side would say the opposite,” says Brian Kalt, professor of law at Michigan State University. “This back-and-forth happens in every impeachment, and the parties switch sides depending on who’s on trial with little regard for what the Constitution really states. The Constitution and 200 years of precedent make it extremely clear that impeachment and removal do not require a crime to have been committed.” Are you a journalist covering the impeachment trials? Our experts can help explain every angle of this process, the potential outcomes and the consequences for both sides arguing for the removal of a sitting president and how it will impact the upcoming election in November. Brian Kalt is a professor of law and the Harold Norris Faculty Scholar at Michigan State University. He is an expert in constitutional law of the presidency, presidential pardons, impeachment, succession and the 25th Amendment. Matt Grossmann is an associate professor of political science and the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research. His expertise includes American politics, political parties and campaigns and he has been featured in the New York Times, Washington Post and other media outlets commenting on these issues. Both Brian and Matt are available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on either expert’s icon to arrange an interview.
The three-way tug-of war between China, Canada and the United States
It’s a court trial in coastal Vancouver Canada that has gathered the attention of international media and plunged trade talks and international relations between America, China and America into tension, tariffs and a tug-of-war over one Chinese executive accused of fraud in in the United States. Here’s brief background courtesy of BBC: The Story in 100 Words Why is the US targeting Huawei, one of the world's largest smartphone makers, and executive Meng Wanzhou? Authorities claim they misled the US government about the company's business in Iran, which is under US economic sanctions. The US is also pursuing Huawei and Ms Meng in criminal charges including bank fraud and theft of technology. Both reject the claims. US officials want Ms Meng extradited from Canada to face the charges. Her arrest caused a diplomatic dispute between China and the US and Canada. The case against Huawei also comes as Western nations grow increasingly concerned about a possible spying risk related to the widespread adoption of the company's technology. So, is there any diplomatic resolution? What will happen if Meng Wanzhou is extradited to the United States? What will happen if she can return to China? Is Canada in a no - win situation? There are a lot of questions – and that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Glen Duerr's research interests include comparative politics, and international relations theory. Glen is available to speak to media regarding this topic– simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Voters Split on Whether Trump Should be Removed from Office Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has widened his lead to 26 points among Florida voters in the race for the Democratic party’s nomination for president in 2020, according to a statewide survey by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI). Among the Democratic candidates, Biden has increased his support to 42 percent, up from 34 percent in BEPI’s September 2019 poll. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders jumped into second place at 14 percent, while U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren fell to third at 10 percent, down significantly from 24 percent support in September. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg came in fourth at 7 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 6 percent, entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 5 percent and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 3 percent. A majority of Democratic primary voters (54 percent) said they will definitely vote for their top choice, with 46 percent saying there is a chance they could change their minds and vote for someone else. The Florida Democratic primary is March 17. “Joe Biden continues to be in a very strong position in Florida,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the FAU BEPI. “However, it will be interesting to see what impact the early contests in New Hampshire and Iowa will have on voters in Florida regarding their support for Biden.” Sanders fared best among Florida voters in head-to-head matchups against U.S President Donald Trump, with a 53-to-47 percent advantage on the president. Biden and Warren have narrow two-point leads on Trump, 51 to 49 percent, while Buttigieg finished in a 50-50 dead heat with the president. In September, Trump held small leads in each of these head-to-head matchups. With an impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate looming, Florida voters are split on whether Trump should be removed from office, with 51 percent saying he should be removed while 49 percent are against removal. Voters are also split about how their Congress person’s decision whether or not to impeach Trump will affect their support for them as a candidate, with 40 percent saying it will make them less likely to support the candidate, 38 percent saying they would be more likely to support them and 21 percent saying it would have no effect. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has just completed his first year in office, is popular among voters with 48 percent approval and 28 percent disapproval, while 25 percent of voters were neutral or had no opinion. With tensions rising with Iran, 61 percent of voters do not think the U.S. is going to get into a war with Iran, while 39 percent think recent military action will lead to war. Trump’s approval rating is slightly above water among Florida voters, with 45 percent approval and 43 disapproval. He continues to be hugely popular among GOP voters, with a 66-point lead on his Republican rivals, former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh and former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld. “Floridians are deeply divided on the president and on impeachment,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative. “Nonetheless, Mr. Trump continues to perform better in Florida than in national polls.” The survey was conducted Jan. 9-12 and polled 1,285 Florida registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The margin of error for both the Republican primary and the Democratic primary is +/- 4.4 percentage points. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, education, party affiliation, region and gender based on a 2016 voter model. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Dynata. Are you a journalist covering the role Florida will play in the upcoming election? If so, let our experts help with your coverage. Kevin Wagner's research and teaching interests include presidential and judicial politics, political behavior and legislative behavior. Monica Escaleras is the Director of the Business and Economics Polling Initiative at Florida Atlantic University. Both experts are available to speak with reporters - simply click on either icon to arrange an interview.
Picking sides – Team Iran or Team America? Our expert can explain
Like America, the Middle East is divided, tense and the sands shift constantly between allies and enemies. And as the temperature rises and war looks more and more imminent – it might be time to find out who is on side with who are why? It seems obvious – with Iran would be Syria, Palestine and Iraq (a newer friend). Siding with America would be Saudi Arabia, Israel and likely Turkey. But what about the other world powers with investments in the region like France and Russia? It’s a powder keg, and it could likely blow – and if you are a reporter covering this topic, let our experts help with your coverage. Dr. Glen Duerr's research interests include domestic and international terrorism, comparative politics, and international relations theory. Glen is available to speak to media regarding this topic– simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
All about impeachment – and does it really matter?
It’s dominating the news and the airwaves, but an event that was once expected to rival the trial of O.J. Simpson seems to be getting caught up in what most government hearings tend to be – boring, bureaucratic and not really captivating viewing for those living outside the beltway. And for some, the reality is the impeachment process seems to be coming with self-fulfilling expectations. Unfortunately, in these hyper-partisan times, the result may likely not be dictated by the facts presented. Despite what compelling evidence is presented by either side, the House will impeach, and the Senate will acquit. That’s how the game will play out. Though procedure will be followed – will it matter? "But in fact, McConnell has repeatedly said he would indeed hold a trial — too many times to reverse himself, in all probability, as the Hill reports: “Under the impeachment rules of the Senate, we’ll take the matter up. The chief justice will be in the chair … We intend to do our constitutional responsibility,” he said. McConnell had previously indicated that he would have “no choice” but to take up impeachment if the House passes articles, though he has also [run] a Facebook ad over the recent two-week recess positioning himself and the GOP-controlled Senate as a roadblock to Trump being removed from office." New York Magazine – November 13 If you’re a reporter covering the impeachment hearings and want to know what to expect, what does matter and how this event will influence politics and government moving forward – then let our experts help. Mark Caleb Smith is the Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. Mark is available to speak with media regarding Trump, impeachment and what follows. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Is there a link between economic stress and opioid abuse? Let our experts help if you are covering
Recent media coverage is pulling back the curtain to reveal another angle on opioid abuse. The facts are startling, and it seems there is a direct relation between those facing economic stress and hardship and abusing opioids. “In 2015, Jennifer Silva, a professor of sociology and anthropology at Bucknell University, began interviewing people in the coal region of northeastern Pennsylvania. She was working on a project, which would become the book We’re Still Here, about how poor and working-class Americans were affected by the collapse of the coal industry—the major job provider in the region. She was curious how the regional decline might have shaped her subjects’ politics. But she quickly noticed a startling trend alongside the growing unemployment: Her subjects and their families were struggling with opioid abuse. At community meetings, doctors and coroners would debate solutions to the problem. Should they be arresting people? Should they be creating support groups? She describes one desperate parent who asked whether Donald Trump’s proposed border wall would keep black tar heroin from getting to Pennsylvania. Silva’s interviewees might have been representative of an awful connection between job loss and opioid abuse, a connection that continues to be bolstered by research. A study published on Monday in the journal JAMA found that counties with automotive assembly plants that closed had, five years after the closure, 85 percent higher rates of opioid-overdose mortality, relative to counties where automotive assembly plants remained open.” January 02 – The Atlantic The opioid epidemic has seen approximately 700,000 Americans dies since 1999. And there are many people who have become victims – rich and poor. However, this recent finding may show a link that public health officials, law makers and addiction experts can further focus on, especially in areas of America facing current or impending economic strife. There are a still lot of questions and that’s where we can help. Dr. Marc Sweeney is the Founding Dean of the School of Pharmacy at Cedarville University and is an expert in the fields of drug abuse, prescription drug abuse and Opioid addiction. Marc is available to speak with media regarding this growing issue. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.