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Tracking rain patterns will improve hurricane forecasting, UF researcher finds

Studying the precipitation patterns in hurricanes may be key to predicting future storm patterns and their potential strength, a University of Florida researcher has found. Supported by a four-year, $212,000 grant from the National Science Foundation, Professor of Geography Corene Matyas, Ph.D. has identified the patterns of rain rates within storms and studied the moisture surrounding these storms. “We are hoping that, if we have a better prediction of moisture availability, that might help us forecast rain events with greater accuracy,” Matyas said. “The more we know about how storms develop, the more we can predict their path and magnitude.” The ideal stage for the perfect storm The potential for devastating high winds, storm surge and flooding poses an annual threat to Florida and its residents. With 1,350 miles of coastline and relatively flat geography that juts out to separate the warm waters of the southeast Atlantic and the Gulf, Florida creates the ideal stage for the perfect storm. Last year broke records with 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and three major hurricanes making landfall along Florida’s coast. Early predictions are crucial to hurricane preparedness, allowing for increased response time and resource allocation, and hurricane modeling is essential for understanding these somewhat unpredictable storms. Advances in technology, data collection and the use of artificial intelligence in hurricane modeling have significantly impacted the ability to predict a storm’s path and strength more accurately. Artificial intelligence helps researchers understand hurricanes Matyas has completed two studies on this topic. The first study processed 12,000 images of rain rates from tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, using a machine learning algorithm called a convolutional autoencoder. Similar in use to image recognition software, the encoder broke the rain rate images down and simplified the patterns. Six main types, or clusters, of rainfall patterns for tropical cyclones were identified. At a presentation of the work to forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Jacksonville, the forecasters confirmed that one of the patterns matches what they typically see when late-season storms make landfall over Florida’s Gulf Coast. The second study used the autoencoder to process 4,600 images that represent the amount of moisture in the atmosphere extending 1,000 kilometers away from each hurricane. “We looked for commonalities in the patterns and found four dominant patterns of moisture that accompany Atlantic basin hurricanes,” Matyas said. “We found the biggest storms with the most moisture make the most landfalls, typically in the Caribbean and even in southern Florida. They also have a large moisture pool, giving them a bigger chance of heavy rainfall.” According to Matyas, three of the moisture patterns found in the second study were strikingly like those found in the earlier study that used fewer observations in a statistical analysis. With this use of AI, researchers can now recognize and understand these moisture patterns better, which can improve predictions about a storm’s intensity, its size and the amount of rainfall that will result from it. Early, accurate storm predictions allow Floridians time to prepare Rapid intensification – when, in a 24-hour period, a storm experiences a sudden drop in pressure and a dramatic increase in wind speed – creates much more of a challenge for forecasters. “We tend to boil down a hurricane to a set of coordinates which track the middle of a storm,” Matyas said. “And the fastest winds do focus there, but the moisture gets pulled from thousands of kilometers away and the system forces the moisture up. That moisture must go somewhere. So, the outer edges of the storm need to be understood more as well.” Matyas hopes these studies will help scientists classify rain patterns more accurately and consistently. Continued funding for research at public universities from federal agencies, such as the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is essential for helping researchers develop tools to detect and predict severe weather events. Matyas is one of two UF faculty members among 18 national researchers named to the 2025 class of fellows by the American Association of Geographers. Matyas and UF Geography Department Chair Jane Southworth, Ph.D. were honored by the organization for their contributions in biogeography, geospatial analytics, soil science, community geography, climatology and other areas related to geography. “I look forward to this opportunity to contribute to the mission of the AAG in a more formal capacity, continuing to research how weather shapes our spaces and share knowledge of earth systems beyond the classroom and the written word to promote an inclusive society,” Matyas said.

“Designing Her Own Future: A Georgia Southern MBA Story”

After earning her Master of Business Administration from Georgia Southern University, one graduate is charting a path that blends creativity with business discipline. With a background in dressmaking, she entered the MBA program already skilled in her craft, but looking to strengthen the operational side of her work. “So much goes into dressmaking,” she explained. “From developing the pattern to the fabric you use, getting the right measurements, and so on. You have to make sure your stitches are clean, that the zipper is sitting properly.” While her technical skills were well developed, she quickly recognized that sustaining and growing her work required more than creative talent alone. “I didn’t have that business background,” she explained. “So I wanted to find a university program that could teach me how to structure and operate my business efficiently. So I started doing my research.” That search led her to Georgia Southern’s MBA program, where she immersed herself in coursework focused on strategy, leadership, and practical decision-making. Through the program, she gained the tools to think more systematically about her business—learning how to plan, organize, and scale her operations with confidence. Her experience reflects how graduate business education can empower entrepreneurs and creatives alike, transforming passion into sustainable practice and helping graduates design futures that work both artistically and professionally. Want to learn more about Georgia Southern's Master of Business Administration program? Simply contact Georgia Southern's Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview today.

Venezuela: Why Regime Change Is Harder Than Removing A Leader

With global attention on Venezuela following the U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro, one of the central questions is whether taking out a leader actually changes the political system that put him in power. Two University of Rochester political scientists — Hein Goemans and Gretchen Helmke — study different sides of this issue, and can shed light on why authoritarian regimes often survive even when leaders fall and what the U.S. intervention means for Venezuela and the world order. Goemans specializes in how wars begin and end, regime survival, and why so-called “decapitation strategies” — removing a leader without dismantling the broader power structure — so often fail to produce stable outcomes. His research draws on cases ranging from Iraq and Afghanistan to authoritarian regimes in Latin America. In a recent interview with WXXI Public Media, Goemans warned that removing Maduro does not resolve the underlying system of military and economic control that sustained his rule. Without changes to those institutions, he said, power is likely to remain concentrated among the same elite networks. “The problem isn’t just the leader,” Goemans explained. “It’s the structure that rewards loyalty and punishes defection. If that remains intact, the politics don’t fundamentally change.” Helmke, a leading scholar of democracy and authoritarianism in Latin America, emphasizes that legitimacy, not just force, determines whether democratic transitions take hold. Her research helps explain why democratic breakthroughs so often stall after moments of dramatic change, and why outside interventions can unintentionally weaken domestic opposition movements by shifting power toward regime insiders. “When the institutions and elites remain in place, uncertainty — not democratic transition — often becomes the dominant political reality,” she said. For journalists covering the fast-moving situation, Goemans and Helmke are available to discuss why removing leaders rarely brings the political transformation policymakers expect and what history suggests comes next. They can address: • Why regime-change operations so often backfire, even when dictators are deeply unpopular • What sidelining democratic opposition means for legitimacy • Whether U.S. claims that Maduro is illegitimate hold up under international and U.S. law • How prosecuting a foreign leader in U.S. courts could reshape norms of sovereignty • The risks the U.S. intervention poses to the rules-based international order and NATO • How interventions affect international norms, including sovereignty and the rule of law, and why short-term tactical successes can create long-term strategic risks. • Why treating global politics as a series of “one-off” power plays misunderstands how states actually enforce norms over time • How competing factions inside the U.S. administration may be driving incoherent foreign policy Geomans also brings rare insight into the internal dynamics of U.S. policymaking, having taught and observed Stephen Miller, one of President Donald Trump’s closest aides who is helping shape the administration’s worldview. (Goemans taught Miller at Duke University in 2003.) Click on the profiles for Goemans and Helmke to connect with them.

Georgia Southern professor re-elected to board of world’s largest scientific society

Professor of chemistry and chair of the Department of Biochemistry, Chemistry and Physics Will Lynch, Ph.D., has been re-elected to the American Chemical Society’s (ACS) board of directors. This marks his second three-year term on the board. With ACS serving as the largest science organization in the world, Lynch says the society’s work impacts lives every day. “We support the scientific enterprise by advocating for everything from research funding to laboratory safety,” said Lynch. “That work strengthens scientific integrity that ACS champions and ultimately shows up in the things that people rely on daily. Bottled water, medicines, cellphones and computer screens all come from chemistry. Many people do not realize how deeply science shapes their world.” With a budget of nearly $900 million and a global community of over 200,000, planning is essential to the success of ACS. Lynch is proud to have chaired the committee that created the society’s next five-year strategic plan. He hopes that his work will continue to put the society’s vast resources to use helping advocate for scientists around the world. “My focus now is implementing ACS’ strategic plan, which envisions a world built on science and setting up the indicators to measure our success,” said Lynch. “We want to make sure we support chemists whether they are in academia, industry, government labs or retired.” Serving in a leadership role for a world-renowned scientific organization is part of Lynch’s calling to help others. He began his service with ACS over 40 years ago when he volunteered at a regional meeting while pursuing his bachelor’s degree. He started making connections immediately and grew his professional network from the local to the national level. Forming friendships in the scientific community and witnessing the ways their work changed lives inspired Lynch to continue to grow his own knowledge so he could do more for others. “Getting to do research as an undergraduate pulled me in, and I knew that chemistry was where I could make a difference. I realized I had a path to help society through science and I never looked back.” Looking to know more about Georgia Southern University or connect with Will Lynch? Simply contact Georgia Southern's Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview today.

Sun-Sentinel: What happens when parents go beyond sharenting?

So many parents routinely share photos and news about their kids on social media that the behavior has a name: sharenting. Usually harmless and well-meaning, it can also take a dangerous turn, exposing children to online predators, allowing companies to collect personal information and creating pathways for children to become victimized by identity theft. The risks are most pervasive when parents overshare to profit from their social media accounts. Whenever parents share, they are the gatekeepers, tasked with protecting their children’s information, but they are also the ones unlatching the gates. When parents profit from opening the gates, it is especially challenging to balance protecting their kids’ privacy against sharing their stories. Federal and state laws typically give wide deference to parents to raise their children as they see fit. But the state can and does intervene when parents abuse their children. Those laws protect children in the physical world. However, few laws shield children when parents risk harming them online. Let’s consider this hypothetical situation based on a composite of real-life events. Mia (fictional name) is a 7-year-old girl growing up in Orlando. Her mother is a stay-at-home parent who has a public Instagram account and considers herself an influencer. Many lingerie brands pay Mia’s mom to model their clothing. When a lingerie company from overseas offers Mia’s mom some money to have Mia also pose in their clothing, Mia’s mom says yes. Over the next few weeks, Mia and her mom model the clothing together in pictures and videos, sometimes wearing the outfits while reading together in bed, having pillow fights or being playful around the house — always in clearly intimate but arguably appropriate settings. Mia’s mom’s social media page explodes with new followers, many of whom appear to be grown men. The images on the page receive hundreds of likes and multiple comments. Mia’s mom deletes the most inappropriate comments but leaves others, hoping to increase engagement. As Mia’s mom’s social media following grows, so does the amount of money she earns. Mia tells her teacher about the social media page. Her teacher reaches out to Mia’s parents, to no avail. Mia’s mom keeps sharing. The teacher sees this as a potential form of abuse and neglect and, according to her obligation as a mandatory reporter of abuse, she calls in a report to the state’s central abuse registry. The teacher isn’t trying to get Mia’s mom in criminal trouble, but she thinks the family could use some education surrounding safe social media use and possibly access to financial support if they need this type of online exposure to pay the bills. The intake counselor declines to accept the hotline call. The counselor explains that the posting of pictures is not grounds for an abuse, abandonment or neglect investigation. The parent is sharenting, the counselor says, and that is within a parent’s right. Of course, child sexual abuse material is illegal, but the photos posted by Mia’s mom fall into a gray area — not illegal material, but likely harmful to Mia. Should there be a law to stop this? I believe there should be. Just as our views regarding child abuse have evolved, so must our views on sharenting. Merely 150 years ago, it was legal for parents to beat their children. It wasn’t until 1874, when a little girl named Mary Ellen was beaten severely by her caregiver, that courts began to step in. Drawing from existing laws prohibiting animal cruelty, the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals argued that Mary Ellen had the right to be free from abuse. At the time, there were laws protecting animals from harm by their caregivers but no laws protecting children from such harm! Back to the present: Mia’s disclosure to her teacher could have changed her life and led to her family getting online safety help, if only the child welfare laws were suitably tailored to protect her in the online world as they attempt to do offline. Child protection laws should be expanded to include harms that can be caused by online sharing. The law can both protect parental autonomy and honor children’s privacy through a comprehensive and multidisciplinary new approach toward protecting children online — one that allows for thoughtful investigation, education, remediation and prosecution of parents who use social media in ways that are significantly harmful to their children. This conduct, which falls beyond sharenting, is ripe for legal interventions that reset the balance between a parent’s right to share and a child’s right to online privacy and safety. Stacey Steinberg grew up in West Palm Beach and now lives in Gainesville, where she is a professor at the University of Florida Levin College of Law; the supervising attorney for the Gator TeamChild Juvenile Law Clinic; the director of the Center on Children and Families; and the author of “Beyond Sharenting,” forthcoming in the Southern California Law Review. This piece was also published in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Listen: Donald Trump Loathes the Courts. He’s Following the Autocrat Playbook to Sideline Them

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here. In democratic systems, the courts are a vital check on a leader’s power. They have the ability to overturn laws and, in Donald Trump’s case, the executive orders he has relied on to achieve his goals. Since taking office, Trump has targeted the judiciary with a vengeance. He has attacked what he has called “radical left judges” and is accused of ignoring or evading court orders. The Supreme Court has already handed the Trump administration some key wins in his second term. But several cases now before the court will be pivotal in determining how much power Trump is able to accrue – and what he’ll be able to do with it. As Paul Collins, a Supreme Court expert from the University of Massachusetts Amherst, explains in episode 4 of The Making of an Autocrat: It’s all about presidential power. And that’s really significant because it’s going to enable the president to basically inject a level of politics into the federal bureaucracy that we frankly haven’t really seen before in the US. Listen to the interview with Collins at The Making of an Autocrat podcast, available at Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Maduro is gone; expert details potential impact on the Caribbean

Globally, the ousting of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has been met with a mix of reactions and cautious optimism. The University of Delaware’s Kalim Shah can discuss how regime change will play across the Caribbean and the spillover effect that will ripple throughout the region – and the world – in the years and decades to come. Shah, professor of energy and environmental policy and an expert on the island nations of the Caribbean, says that although public statements have been muted and restrained, there is a shared understanding. “For small island states that have absorbed the effects of Venezuelan collapse for more than two decades, this moment represents the possible end of a long and destabilizing chapter,” Shah said. Caribbean governments are not celebrating regime change, Shah said. Rather, they are responding to the prospect of reduced systemic risk. “A Venezuela that no longer exports large-scale displacement, opaque energy leverage and permissive criminal governance is objectively preferable for the region.” Shah can discuss several aspects of Venezuela’s political history, how the nation has arrived where it is, where it might be headed and the impact this will have on the Caribbean as a whole. Those include: • Venezuela’s political and economic deterioration during the Chávez–Maduro era and how that has translated directly into pressures felt across the Caribbean in the form of migration, fiscal exposure, security risks and regional uncertainty. • How the nation’s institutional collapse coincided with deepening organized crime activity across the Caribbean basin. Data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime consistently places the region within major cocaine trafficking corridors linking South America with North American and European markets. For Caribbean governments, this meant higher interdiction costs, increased exposure to transnational criminal networks and growing pressure on already limited security institutions. • This moment invites a reassessment of China’s expanding footprint in the Caribbean, Shah says. He can discuss the ways in which Beijing has deepened its presence throughout the region. Shah says that as this transition unfolds, five policy developments will determine whether the cautious optimism proves warranted: • The impact on Venezuelan outward migration to the Caribbean. • Whether Caribbean public systems receive durable support rather than short-term humanitarian fixes. • Organized crime and drug trafficking pressures in the Caribbean basin. • External security engagement in the Caribbean. • Whether the region avoids a return to dependency-driven energy and infrastructure politics. “For the Caribbean, hope today is not naïve. It is conditional. The Chávez–Maduro years imposed real costs on the region. Their end creates an opening…but only if policy follows through,” Shah said. To contact Shah directly for interviews, visit his expert page and click on the "contact" button. Interested reporters can also send an email to mediarelations@udel.edu.

The health challenges astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams face after 9 months in space

On June 5, 2024, astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams embarked on a brief mission to the International Space Station. But equipment failures turned what was supposed to be an eight-day trip into a grueling 9 month spaceflight. This week, Wilmore and Williams finally returned to Earth. While their safe return is cause for celebration, the journey doesn’t end when astronauts touch down on Earth. They now face the significant task of recovering from the physical and psychological toll of long-duration spaceflight. As part of the University of Florida’s ongoing research into astronaut health, Rachael Seidler, Ph.D., a leading expert in spaceflight-associated health changes, is studying the long-term effects of space travel on astronauts’ brains and bodies. Seidler’s research focuses on understanding how the central nervous system and brain structure adapt to the challenges of space travel, as well as how these changes affect performance, balance, and mobility once astronauts return to Earth. “While the physical and psychological challenges astronauts face after returning from long-duration space missions are well-documented, the research we do at UF is helping us understand the intricacies of their recovery process,” said Seidler, deputy director of the Astraeus Space Institute at UF. “By following astronauts like Butch and Suni before, during, and after their missions, we can track how the human body responds to the extreme conditions of space.” Behavioral and Brain Changes Post-Flight Seidler’s research tracks astronauts’ physical and neurological recovery by observing them both during their missions and after they return. "One of the most immediate challenges astronauts face when they return to Earth is mobility and balance. These issues often recover more quickly compared to others, but it takes time for astronauts to readjust to gravity,” Seidler said. "The balance, mobility, and walking difficulties astronauts experience during the first weeks back are typically resolved in a short period, but brain function and structure require longer recovery periods." Seidler’s research indicates that astronauts’ brains exhibit compensation when they return to Earth following spaceflight. This compensation occurs through the recruitment of additional neural pathways in order to return to their preflight performance levels. However, the recovery of brain function is a gradual process. "This brain functional compensation is typically no longer observed within one to six months post-flight," Seidler said. However, not all changes are reversible. "Brain structural changes, particularly related to fluid shifts in space, show little to no recovery even after six months to a year," Seidler said. Two significant structural changes include the brain physically sitting higher in the skull and the expansion of the brain’s ventricles — fluid-filled cavities in the brain — which can increase in volume by 25% or more. These changes are thought to result from the fluid shifts caused by microgravity, and they present long-term health considerations for astronauts. Long-Term Health Effects: Understanding the Impact As Wilmore and Williams embark on their recovery journey, the long-term impact of these changes becomes a critical focus for researchers like Seidler. "The long-term health impacts are crucial to understand because they could affect how astronauts recover and perform in their daily lives post-mission," she said. Seidler’s team at UF is conducting a new study in which they are tracking astronauts for up to five years post-flight to better understand these long-term effects. "We’ve had astronauts in space for up to a year, and we know how to manage their physical health during those missions," Seidler said. "But the effects of space on the brain and body extend beyond the mission, and our work helps inform strategies to manage recovery." Collaborating with NASA and Studying Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome Seidler's work is also part of a broader collaboration with NASA and other scientists to assess astronaut long-term health. The project is particularly focused on Spaceflight-Associated Neuro-Ocular Syndrome, which affects up to 70% of astronauts. This condition involves structural changes to the eye and optic nerve, leading to vision problems that may impact astronauts’ function. "Neuropsychological assessments can help to measure astronauts’ brain health, while studies of the ocular system help identify potential vision issues that may arise during and after long-duration space missions," she said. Simulating Space Conditions on Earth In addition to studying astronauts on Earth and in space, Seidler’s team conducts experiments to simulate the effects of spaceflight on human physiology. The UF lab runs experiments in head-down tilt bed rest studies, which keep participants lying down for weeks to months at a time to simulate the lack of gravity. "This type of study helps us understand how fluid shifts in the body during space travel affect mobility, balance, and brain structure," Seidler explained. "In addition, other publications have reported that astronauts describe that vestibular galvanic stimulation feels similar to what they experience when they first arrive in space and when they return to Earth. We have equipment to induce these effects in the lab." Looking Toward the Future As space missions continue to grow longer and more complex, UF’s research is more important than ever. "We’re studying these issues now to ensure that future astronauts are prepared for the physical and cognitive challenges that await them in deep space," Seidler said.

Researchers work to reduce excessive noise in Florida cities

Excessive noise, or noise pollution, in cities has been linked in multiple studies to increased stress, sleep disturbances, and long-term health problems. Researchers from the University of Florida are on a mission to quiet things down, working with local governments and a private firm to improve both public health and urban living. Enter Martin Gold, an associate professor from UF’s School of Architecture, and his team of students. They recently partnered with Siebein Acoustic, a soundscape design firm that specializes in architectural and environmental acoustics. The team visited Fort Lauderdale, one of Florida’s busiest cities, known both as a party destination and a mecca for retirees. The team studied areas throughout downtown and by the beach to provide recommendations for reducing the impact of sound in the city at large. To inform their work, researchers recruited participants to walk the city and report on their observations about sound and sights, took photo documentation, acoustic measurements, geographical measurements and analyzed municipal code studies. The team proposed different improvement strategies including: Using vertical distance by requiring residential high-rise construction to limit residences in the lower floors of buildings. Limiting sound levels at windows or balconies of residential units. Building envelope systems, which are the building components that separate the indoors from the outdoors, that limit sound transmission and absorb sound. Designing new construction so buildings absorb and diffuse the sounds striking them rather than reflecting and subsequently amplifying the sounds or focusing the sounds in particular areas. Strategic zoning to incentivize designs along arterial corridors that fill the sites and provide acoustic barriers to the residential neighborhoods behind them. “We need to take a closer look at how we are designing the next generation of urban environments. There’s a lot we can do with soundscape architecture to positively impact issues moving forward.” —Martin Gold, associate professor from UF’s School of Architecture The findings and recommendations were presented at the International Congress and Exposition on Noise Control Engineering in Nantes, France. Gold and his students are currently surveying an area of Clearwater and plan to study more cities around the state and offer recommendations for reducing noise.

A Snapshot of the Local Economy: Simon Medcalfe on Growth, Risk, and What Comes Next

At Augusta University’s annual Economic Forecast Breakfast hosted by the James M. Hull College of Business, Simon Medcalfe, PhD, offered a grounded, data-driven look at how the local economy is performing — and what lies ahead. Speaking to business leaders, students and community stakeholders, Medcalfe emphasized the importance of distinguishing real economic growth from inflation-driven gains, noting that while the Augusta region continues to grow, it does so at a measured pace compared to national averages. His presentation framed the local economy as stable and resilient, but not immune to broader forces shaping the U.S. outlook. A key theme of Medcalfe’s remarks was the role of research, innovation and education in sustaining long-term economic health. He pointed to strong gains in research and development across Georgia and highlighted how university-based research directly contributes to regional economic output. According to Medcalfe, investment in knowledge creation remains one of the most reliable drivers of growth, reinforcing the value of higher education institutions as economic anchors. Simon Medcalfe, PhD, is an economist with an emphasis on sports economics, social determinants of health, and the local economy. View his profile At the same time, Medcalfe cautioned against complacency. While regional fundamentals remain solid, he stressed that uncertainty at the national level continues to pose risks. “However, uncertainty abounds in national macroeconomic policy that could negatively impact growth next year,” Medcalfe said, underscoring how unresolved fiscal decisions and policy shifts can ripple down to local economies. Still, his overall outlook balanced realism with optimism. Medcalfe concluded that the Augusta region — and Georgia more broadly — is positioned to weather uncertainty thanks to diversification, investment in early education, and continued research activity. “Overall, Augusta and Georgia are positioned well for economic growth in 2026 with a strong commitment to early childhood education, a diversified labor market and strong research and development,” he said. View the full article 'Annual Economic Forecast Breakfast offers snapshot of the local economy' here: For journalists covering regional economics, workforce development, higher education, or policy-driven growth trends, Simon Medcalfe, PhD, offers clear-eyed analysis rooted in data — and an ability to translate complex economic signals into insight that matters locally. Simon is available to speak with media - simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.