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Why Simultaneous Voting Makes for Good Decisions
How can organizations make robust decisions when time is short, and the stakes are high? It’s a conundrum not unfamiliar to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Back in 2021, the FDA found itself under tremendous pressure to decide on the approval of the experimental drug aducanumab, designed to slow the progress of Alzheimer’s disease—a debilitating and incurable condition that ranks among the top 10 causes of death in the United States. Welcomed by the market as a game-changer on its release, aducanumab quickly ran into serious problems. A lack of data on clinical efficacy along with a slew of dangerous side effects meant physicians in their droves were unwilling to prescribe it. Within months of its approval, three FDA advisors resigned in protest, one calling aducanumab, “the worst approval decision that the FDA has made that I can remember.” By the start of 2024, the drug had been pulled by its manufacturers. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight and data from the public’s use of aducanumab, it is easy for us to tell that FDA made the wrong decision then. But is there a better process that would have given FDA the foresight to make the right decision, under limited information? The FDA routinely has to evaluate novel drugs and treatments; medical and pharmaceutical products that can impact the wellbeing of millions of Americans. With stakes this high, the FDA is known to tread carefully: assembling different advisory, review, and funding committees providing diverse knowledge and expertise to assess the evidence and decide whether to approve a new drug, or not. As a federal agency, the FDA is also required to maintain scrupulous records that cover its decisions, and how those decisions are made. The Impact of Voting Mechanisms on Decision Quality Some of this data has been analyzed by Goizueta’s Tian Heong Chan, associate professor of information systems and operation management. Together with Panos Markou of the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, Chan scrutinized 17 years’ worth of information, including detailed transcripts from more than 500 FDA advisory committee meetings, to understand the mechanisms and protocols used in FDA decision-making: whether committee members vote to approve products sequentially, with everyone in the room having a say one after another; or if voting happens simultaneously via the push of a button, say, or a show of hands. Chan and Markou also looked at the impact of sequential versus simultaneous voting to see if there were differences in the quality of the decisions each mechanism produced. Their findings are singular. It turns out that when stakeholders vote simultaneously, they make better decisions. Drugs or products approved this way are far less likely to be issued post-market boxed warnings (warnings issued by FDA that call attention to potentially serious health risks associated with the product, that must be displayed on the prescription box itself), and more than two times less likely to be recalled. The FDA changed its voting protocols in 2007, when they switched from sequentially voting around the room, one person after another, to simultaneous voting procedures. And the results are stunning. Tian Heong Chan, Associate Professor of Information Systems & Operation Management “Decisions made by simultaneous voting are more than twice as effective,” says Chan. “After 2007, you see that just 3.4% of all drugs and products approved this way end up being discontinued or recalled. This compares with an 8.6% failure rate for drugs approved by the FDA using more sequential processes—the round robin where individuals had been voting one by one around the room.” Imagine you are told before hand that you are going to vote on something important by simply raising your hand or pressing a button. In this scenario, you are probably going to want to expend more time and effort in debating all the issues and informing yourself before you decide. Tian Heong Chan “On the other hand, if you know the vote will go around the room, and you will have a chance to hear how others’ speak and explain their decisions, you’re going to be less motivated to exchange and defend your point of view beforehand,” says Chan. In other words, simultaneous decision-making is two times less likely to generate a wrong decision as the sequential approach. Why is this? Chan and Markou believe that these voting mechanisms impact the quality of discussion and debate that undergird decision-making; that the quality of decisions is significantly impacted by how those decisions are made. Quality Discussion Leads to Quality Decisions Parsing the FDA transcripts for content, language, and tonality in both settings, Chan and Markou find evidence to support this. Simultaneous voting or decision-making drives discussions that are characterized by language that is more positive, more authentic, and more even in terms of expressions of authority and hierarchy, says Chan. What’s more, these deliberations and exchanges are deeper and more far-ranging in quality. We find marked differences in the tone of speech and the topics discussed when stakeholders know they will be voting simultaneously. There is less hierarchy in these exchanges, and individuals exhibit greater confidence in sharing their points of view more freely. Tian Heong Chan “We also see more questions being asked, and a broader range of topics and ideas discussed,” says Chan. In this context, decision-makers are also less likely to reach unanimous agreement. Instead, debate is more vigorous and differences of opinion remain more robust. Conversely, sequential voting around the room is typically preceded by shorter discussion in which stakeholders share fewer opinions and ask fewer questions. And this demonstrably impacts the quality of the decisions made, says Chan. Sharing a different perspective to a group requires effort and courage. With sequential voting or decision-making, there seems to be less interest in surfacing diverse perspectives or hidden aspects to complex problems. Tian Heong Chan “So it’s not that individuals are being influenced by what other people say when it comes to voting on the issue—which would be tempting to infer—rather, it’s that sequential voting mechanisms seem to take a bit more effort out of the process.” When decision-makers are told that they will have a chance to vote and to explain their vote, one after another, their incentives to make a prior effort to interrogate each other vigorously, and to work that little bit harder to surface any shortcomings in their own understanding or point of view, or in the data, are relatively weaker, say Chan and Markou. The Takeaway for Organizations Making High-Stakes Decisions Decision-making in different contexts has long been the subject of scholarly scrutiny. Chan and Markou’s research sheds new light on the important role that different mechanisms have in shaping the outcomes of decision-making—and the quality of the decisions that are jointly taken. And this should be on the radar of organizations and institutions charged with making choices that impact swathes of the community, they say. “The FDA has a solid tradition of inviting diversity into its decision-making. But the data shows that harnessing the benefits of diversity is contingent on using the right mechanisms to surface the different expertise you need to be able to see all the dimensions of the issue, and make better informed decisions about it,” says Chan. A good place to start? By a concurrent show of hands. Tian Heong Chan is an associate professor of information systems and operation management. he is available to speak about this topic - click on his con now to arrange an interview today.
Expert Q& A: ‘The Pope is also a monarch’
Kathleen Comerford, Ph.D., professor of history at Georgia Southern University, specializes in Catholic history in the 16th and 17th centuries. She is also an associate editor for the Journal of Jesuit Studies, which focuses on the work of the Society of Jesus (Jesuits), a religious order within the Catholic Church. Pope Francis was the church’s first Jesuit pope. With the global significance and rarity of the conclave, Comerford answered frequently asked questions about how the conclave works, how the conclave process has evolved over time, and what the passing of a pope means for the Catholic Church and the world. Question: What does the passing of a pope mean for the world? Comerford: Multiple things! First of all, there are 1.4 billion Catholics in the world scattered in many different countries. The pope is a unifying figure for all of the Catholics. He represents something immediate in the sense that he’s the head of the church and is a recognizable figure. The pope is also a monarch. I was just talking with my classes about this. He is the head of the government of the Vatican City State, which is the smallest independent state in the world. It has a very long history itself. Pretty much everybody who lives in Vatican City works for the Vatican. The pope is one of the few elected monarchs in history. He is responsible for financial and political decisions, and he has ambassadors around the world as a result of his role in global policy. Question: How is a new pope selected? Comerford: The College of Cardinals will meet for an election called a conclave, and they actually stay in a dormitory-like place in Vatican City for it. They are sequestered from the public, and they take some time to meet, pray and vote. The cardinals aren’t supposed to be sitting around talking about who would be a really good pope, but we don’t know whether they do because they’re sequestered and nobody is supposed to talk about it. They will likely take a vote on the first day, but that’s not required. Every subsequent day, they can take a maximum of four votes; two in the morning and two in the afternoon until a candidate gets a two-thirds majority. Question: What does the voting look like? Comerford: There are ballots, and the cardinals write their preferred candidate on the ballot, and then they put their vote in a chalice. To count the votes, there’s a group of three people who are in charge of counting and then announcing the results to the fellow cardinals. There are 252 cardinals, but only 135 of them are eligible to vote because anyone over the age of 80 is ineligible. The procedure where only cardinals can elect the pope dates from 1059. The secret ballot and the two-thirds majority requirement is from 1621. The sequestration for the process dates from 1271 because they argued about who the new pope would be for two years and nine months; a total of 33 months. And so, they decided that the only way to make sure that this didn’t happen again would be to create this scenario with the cardinals locked in a room with a key. Question: When one of the candidates receives a two-thirds majority and becomes the next pope, how will it be announced? Comerford: Well, this is kind of fun, because they have four votes every day until one of the candidates receives a two-thirds majority. After they take the votes, the papers used to vote are burned. How the news is shared to the crowds outside is based on the color of smoke. If the smoke is black, that means no one received the majority and there’s no new pope yet. If there’s white smoke, it means there’s a new pope. This practice really only dates to the early 19th century. At first, it was just if there was smoke, there was no pope; if there was no smoke, then there was a pope. In 1914, they changed this aspect of the election so that black smoke means “no pope” and white smoke means “new pope.” Question: It’s expected that the next pope will be one of the cardinals in the room when they vote, yes? Comerford: Yes, but it doesn’t have to be. There have been a lot of popes, but in the last 200-300 years, there hasn’t been somebody who wasn’t in the conclave that was elected. Theoretically, they could nominate somebody who’s not a cardinal and the whole room could say, “yes, that’s the person we want as pope.” However, they don’t vote by acclamation anymore. They stopped doing that in the 19th century. Question: Pope Francis appointed 108 of the cardinals, so that’s a total of 80% of those eligible to vote for the next pope. How likely is it that we see a pope similar to the late Francis, considering he provided the electorate for his successor? Comerford: First of all, he deliberately went out and created cardinals in places where there had never been cardinals before. And he didn’t do that by saying, “I’m going to find somebody who’s like-minded to me.” He just said, “There are a lot of Catholics in Myanmar and they’ve never had a cardinal. So I’m going to make sure that there’s a cardinal now.” Most of these new cardinals are in places like Rwanda, Cape Verde, Tonga, Myanmar, Mongolia and so on. So these are non-European cardinals. Now, less than 40% of the voting cardinals are European. So to speculate on how similar they are to Francis, you have to break down what Francis was. There has been his entire pontificate about how he’s the first American pope, but his parents were born in Italy. He didn’t grow up speaking Italian, but it was a dialect of Italian as well as Spanish, because he grew up in Argentina. He was the most European you can get and still be an American. Another part of the question is, will the new pope be somebody who is of a similar mind to Francis in terms of his governance, which was very devolved. He introduced this idea of “synodality,” which is about fairly consistent communication with groups of people. Pope Francis was not particularly monarchical or hierarchical. There is also the aspect of his thinking that leans more to the left than the right on a number of social issues like immigration, women’s rights, the rights of minorities and immigration. He opened a lot of conversations, which the very right leaning portions of the church have been very uncomfortable with. If you're interested in learning more about this topic and want to book time to talk or interview with Kathleen Comerford then let us help - simply contact Georgia Southern's Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview today.
The History of Conclave and How Do They Pick a New Pope?
The papal conclave—the centuries-old process by which the Roman Catholic Church selects a new pope—is one of the most secretive and spiritually symbolic events in the world. Rooted in rich ritual and guided by strict protocols, the conclave represents a moment of global significance, not only for the 1.3 billion Catholics worldwide but for all who follow the influence of religion on world affairs. This topic matters to the public as it blends ancient tradition with contemporary global leadership questions, shedding light on how faith, power, and governance intersect. The election of a pope impacts international diplomacy, interfaith relations, and moral discourse on modern issues. Key story angles that may interest a broad audience include: Origins of the papal conclave: Tracing its development from medieval times to its formalization by Pope Gregory X in 1274. The voting process: Exploring the steps from the Sistine Chapel seclusion to the smoke signals that announce a new pontiff. The role of the College of Cardinals: Examining who the electors are, how they are chosen, and the geopolitical makeup of the voting body. Influence of modern issues on papal selection: Understanding how social, environmental, and political concerns may shape cardinal deliberations. Global reaction to papal succession: Looking at how nations, religious groups, and the public respond to the announcement of a new pope. Symbolism and tradition: Analyzing the vestments, rituals, and centuries-old customs that surround the conclave and papal inauguration. Connect with an expert about the Papal Conclave: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com
Legacy of Former President Jimmy Carter
Following the death of Jimmy Carter, the 39th president of the United States, Dr. Meena Bose was featured in a Newsday article about his legacy. Dr. Bose is a Hofstra University professor of political science, executive dean of the Public Policy and Public Service program, and director of the Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency. She noted that Carter served under difficult economic and political times. “But then, of course, he went on to have a highly successful post-presidency winning the Nobel Peace Prize, being highly active in public housing policy, voting rights … and really was quite active on the public scene until just a few years ago,” she said. The article also referenced the Hofstra Cultural Center’s 1990 three-day presidential conference on the Carter administration, which President Carter and First Lady Rosalynn Carter attended.
Does Donald Trump Like Seniors?
At 78, Donald J. Trump already has 13 years of experience as a senior citizen. During his previous presidency, he occasionally referenced his senior status, particularly when discussing issues affecting older Americans. For example, in the 2020 election campaign, he acknowledged his age and addressed fellow seniors directly in his messaging, sometimes referring to himself as part of the senior community. Looking at his record, Trump appears to have a complex relationship with seniors. While expressing support for essential programs such as Social Security and Medicare, he often weaves the needs of seniors into his rhetoric. Yet some of his policy decisions have created mixed feelings among older Americans and advocacy groups. While pledging to protect these programs, he’s considered budget-cut proposals to reduce the funding of both these programs. Plus, his administration attempted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. While even the smartest of experts have learned it’s difficult to predict what Donald Trump will do on key policy decisions, there are some clues as to how his move back into the Oval Office will impact Canada and, more specifically, seniors. This topic got me wondering. Does Trump (a senior himself), like seniors? Let’s look closer at this demographic. Everyone knows that older people are the most reliable voters. The stats are compelling. According to Elections Canada - 75% of Canadians aged 65-74 voted compared to 48% of those aged 18-24. - The statistics for our US neighbours are similar, with 70% of Americans aged 65+ voting and 50% of Americans aged 18-29 voting. Knowing this voting power of the senior demographic, did Trump pander to this voting cohort? Yes, he most certainly did. He knew that as people age, their concerns narrow to a smaller list of critical topics such as Financial Security, Health, and Safety. During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump focused heavily on appealing to older voters, who historically make up a significant portion of the electorate and are more likely to vote. His campaign emphasized economic stability, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and national security—particularly relevant to older demographics. Let’s take a closer look at how the Trump administration could impact Canada's senior demographic in the following areas: Inflation Background: Inflation has a direct correlation to the cost of living. As the prices of goods and services rise over time, the purchasing power of money decreases – a challenge for many seniors. Critical expenses like housing, healthcare, food, and utilities could increase noticeably, putting pressure on limited retirement incomes and pensions. All this is stressful. According to a 2024 national survey of over 2,000 Canadians (conducted by Leger on behalf of FP Canada), money remains the top stressor for Canadians, with 44 percent citing money as their primary concern; That's up from 40 percent in 2023 and 38 percent in both 2022 and 2021. What This Means: Two of Trump’s biggest promises in his campaign (mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and more restrictive trade regulations) would have a "significant impact," according to an article by Ellen Cushing in the Atlantic. A domestic labour shortage plus double-digit import taxes would raise food prices on both sides of the border. Cushing goes on to say that “deporting undocumented immigrants would reduce the number of workers who pick crops by 40-50%.” While this rhetoric may have played well during the campaign, you can't fake the simple math here. Fewer workers means higher wages. That means higher prices. And the senior demographic will be hit hard because of their fixed incomes. Many will eat less of the expensive grocery store items like fresh meat, fruits and vegetables to make ends meet. Food prices will inevitably climb with these policies. The only question is when. According to a new poll conducted for CIBC and Financial Planning Canada on November 27, 2023, approximately 75% of working Canadians still need a formal financial plan for retirement. And many retirees face economic difficulties. A whopping 25% are still carrying debt into retirement. Many also report they have a substantial portion of debt and report that their retirement lifestyle isn't as comfortable as expected. The impact of inflation could be dire with few solutions; it is different for these older Canadians because they cannot re-enter the workforce. The only saving grace is that many of the hardest-hit Canadians are homeowners with equity options. Interest Rates Prediction: According to Beata Caranci, SVP & Chief Economist of TD Bank, the US is likely to raise interest rates to control growth. Canada is also expected to increase its rates, mainly to keep the Canadian dollar stable against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of Canada could be forced to rescind the projected planned interest rate reductions or at least reduce them. However, it's a delicate balancing act. Our economy could suffer if we don’t mirror the US increases in interest rates. Impact: Increasing Canadian interest rates will impact seniors by increasing mortgage carrying costs. At the same time, older Canadians with investment savings could see increased returns on these savings. A rise in interest rates would also impact housing prices and foreign exchange rates. House Prices Background: Economic, demographic, and policy-related factors influence home prices in Canada. The new Trump administration will undoubtedly impact these factors. To understand this area, let's examine some significant variables affecting housing costs. 1. Supply and Demand When housing supply is limited, and demand is high, prices rise. Conversely, when supply exceeds demand, prices stagnate or fall. Should the new administration adopt more restrictive immigration policies in the US, Canada might see an increased influx of skilled workers and families seeking an alternative place to live. Housing demand will likely increase in major Canadian cities—Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary- resulting in price increases. 2. Population Growth An increase in population or immigration boosts housing demand, particularly in urban centers, consequently increasing home prices. Canada welcomed 485,000 immigrants in 2024, many of whom settled in cities like Toronto and Vancouver. This influx has driven up demand for housing, contributing to price increases. The Canadian government has recently reduced the number of immigrants we allow into our country, dropping the number from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025. Current immigration numbers plus any overflow from the US should keep demand buoyant and we could see home prices continue to rise. However, Canada needs more housing, especially in high-demand urban areas. In addition to immigration, slow construction timelines and zoning restrictions are contributing factors. Canada's ongoing housing shortage and the potential impacts of Donald Trump's election win in the U.S. could exert upward pressure on home prices, particularly in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver. These cities, already grappling with limited housing and high prices, will likely see further price increases due to increased demand. Without robust policy interventions to increase the housing supply, Canada’s housing prices, particularly in major centers, will likely continue rising. And there will be winners and losers here. This is great news for seniors wishing to sell and exit the market by finding other living arrangements, such as renting, moving in with family, or entering retirement homes. It is even better news for seniors wishing to age in place as they will have more equity to fund their retirement. But it’s disappointing news for those wishing to downsize and stay in the same communities. They may be able to sell high, but they could also be forced to buy high. 3. Foreign Currency Trump's policies, such as tax cuts and protectionist trade measures, have historically strengthened the U.S. dollar. If similar policies are reintroduced, the U.S. dollar could become more robust due to increased investor confidence and perceived economic growth in the U.S. That’s bad for Canadians traveling or living in the U.S. Trump's potential trade disputes, particularly with China, and his aggressive geopolitical stance could also create uncertainty in global markets. While this might temporarily strengthen the U.S. dollar as a haven, long-term concerns about trade wars and deficits could cause fluctuations, impacting the Canadian dollar's stability against the U.S. dollar. This volatility directly impacts Canadians, especially those with significant financial exposure to the U.S. dollar. A second Trump presidency will likely impact the exchange rate between Canadian and U.S. dollars, which is especially relevant for 85% of Canadian Snowbirds, who, according to Snowbird Advisor, spend winters in the United States. This number was estimated to be 900,000 in 2023. These seniors may face increased expenses for property taxes, utilities, and other daily living costs in the U.S. If exchange rate volatility persists, locking in more favourable rates or using specialized currency exchange services, US credit/debit cards with lower transaction fees, and using US dollar accounts might be wise - especially for more significant financial transactions. The Bottom Line One thing is certain. Trump's second term has the potential to impact many Canadian seniors if he implements the policies he discussed during his election campaign. While some could benefit financially from higher home equity and investment returns, many may need help with increased living costs, especially food and foreign exchange challenges, particularly Snowbirds and those on fixed incomes. While we are all watching this situation unfold, one thing is sure. It's difficult to predict if Trump’s second term will make Canadian or US seniors "great again."
Expert Q&A - Craig Albert, PhD, talks election interference
Going into the final days of the 2024 election cycle there is a very real concern about election interference from both foreign and domestic actors, and it's something that will continue to be monitored even after the final votes are tallied. Craig Albert, PhD, graduate director of the PhD in Intelligence, Defense, and Cybersecurity Policy and Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies programs at Augusta University, is a leading expert on propaganda, information warfare and national security studies. Albert has answered key questions about who is trying to interfere in the U.S. elections and why it matters. Q: How and when should someone vote and does it protect you more to avoid interference? The access to instantaneous news or events could affect people and their understanding of whom they want to vote for all the way up until the day they vote. Because of this ease of access, this election cycle has especially shown us how cautious we need to be in regards to scams. It's also why I know there has been a big push for early voting and mail-in voting, and it's necessary in some cases, but I prefer to vote on Election Day because you never know what type of news might come out about one of the candidates or parties. If something comes out that proves to be true, it could affect how someone might vote, but if you voted before Election Day, it's too late. At the same time, a very serious deepfake could be released that could manipulate how people choose to vote and it could mislead people, as well. Q: What are the consequences of the optics of an 'unfair' election? What the U.S. needs to be cautious about is preserving and maintaining the legitimacy of the election cycle. After the election, no matter who wins, narratives of interference and how it impacted the election are going to be shared and that's just irresponsible. Unless there's damning information and very clear evidence, you shouldn't mess around with the idea that the election was interfered with, because that could threaten the very structure of the United States. Q: What's the potential for post-election meddling? We have domestic bad actors as well as foreign maligned actors that are going to say the election was delegitimized no matter who wins. They have social media campaigns ready to post no matter which side wins, they're going to circulate false videos of ballot boxes burning or news that not all the the votes were counted and things of that nature. They're going to do all kinds of things because anybody can fake a ballot box being burned or mail in votes not being counted properly on video or something like that. The problem is if it goes out there or becomes viral, so many people will believe it and that sows discord. So, that creates distrust in the public system on a pretty big swath of the American population. Q: Who benefits from post-election doubts and chaos? You have foreign actors that really build on the type of anger that the political candidates and their parties already use through their propaganda and rhetoric. We have already seen Russia amplifying the message that somebody cheated or elections were hacked, and you have China, Iran, Venezuela, ISIS and Al Qaeda doing that, as well. You also have regular cyber criminals that just want to sew discord and distress so they can manipulate people later on and get into our banking systems and things of that nature. You have potentially hundreds, if not thousands of attack vectors coming at the United States between election night and January 20 when the new President will be sworn in. And then afterwards, they will all still be trying to create chaos, rebellion, civil unrest, or in the case of Iran, China and Russia, open civil war in the United States. Looking to know more and covering the election, Augusta University can help. Albert is available to speak with media – simply click on his name to arrange an interview today.
Ask the expert: The constituencies who will determine Michigan’s election results
When it comes to how Michigan has voted in modern presidential elections, a majority of voters have voted for the Democratic nominee for president. In recent years, however, Michigan has become more competitive as a key swing state. In 2016, former President Donald Trump won by just over 10,000 voters and in 2020 President Joe Biden won by just over 150,000 voters. After Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee, she has had a thin lead over Trump and, now, many pundits are saying Michigan is a toss-up. For Harris to win the presidency, she likely must carry Michigan and that includes needed margins with key voter groups such as young voters, as well as Arab American and Black voters. Nazita Lajevardi is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science in the College of Social Science. She is an expert in American politics, and her work focuses mainly on issues related to race and ethnic politics, political behavior, voting rights and immigration. Here, she answers questions on key groups of voters and the issues they care about that could determine who wins Michigan — and likely who will win the presidency. Responses and excerpts are from an article published in Brookings. Where does the election stand in the final days? Since Biden stepped down at the end of July, Harris has enjoyed a steady — albeit at times uncomfortably thin — lead over Trump in Michigan. However, polling from the end of September onward suggests that Harris comfortably winning the state on Nov. 5 is not a foregone conclusion. With just three weeks left to go in the 2024 presidential race, the polling website FiveThirtyEight indicates that as of Oct. 24, 2024, Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in Michigan by only 0.6 points — 47.6 compared to 47.0. This narrowing of the race appears to be closing the gap that Harris gained over Trump in August. Diving deeper into specific polls feeding into these estimates, it becomes clear that while Harris maintained a solid and consistent lead over Trump by between one and up to eight percentage points in the middle half of September, polls from the third week of September onward have either had Trump leading the state, Harris winning the state by a slim margin, or the two of them being evenly split. What issues do Michigan voters care about? A September 2024 New York Times/Siena College poll found that the three issues Michigan voters cared most about were the economy (24%), abortion (17%) and immigration (14%). Trump, for one, has campaigned heavily in recent weeks about two of these three issues. For instance, he has appealed heavily to Michiganders whose jobs were lost to globalization and automation by promising to revive the American car industry and bring back car factories that have closed in recent years. Groups like Duty to America are highlighting Trump’s strengths on illegal immigration by airing ads across Michigan arguing that it has hurt white people who have been “left behind.” And, while Harris, on the other hand, has great strengths on abortion rights, success in the 2022 elections in amending the state constitution to secure the right to abortion and other reproductive health services may have reduced abortion’s importance as a central voting issue in the state. What impact will Black voters have on Michigan’s result? Among Black voters, experts have identified an enthusiasm gap between those who are part of the “Black leadership class” and deeply connected to the Democratic Party and those Black Michiganders without those same connections, who are more working class, poorer, more fatigued, less interested, and therefore more susceptible to sitting out elections. Many Black voters are also deeply concerned about the economy, and as Michigan State University political scientist Meghan Wilson has noted, Harris could attract Black business owners and holders of student debt by discussing plans to infuse capital into small businesses. The Harris campaign appears to agree. Recently, Harris not only unveiled economic proposals appealing to Black voters but also traveled to Detroit to participate in a radio town hall with Charlamagne tha God, whose program The Breakfast Club has a nationwide audience, much of whom is Black. But attention should be paid to one particular effort to stifle Black turnout. Recently, it was revealed that Tom Barrett, a GOP candidate for the U.S. House, ran a newspaper advertisement in the Black-owned newspaper Michigan Bulletin that incorrectly informed the readership, most of whom are Black, to vote on Nov. 6, when Election Day is Nov. 5. What impact will Arab American voters have on Michigan’s result? Harris is in a deeply precarious position vis-à-vis Michigan’s Muslim and Middle East/North Africa, or MENA, electorates. Without a doubt, these groups will have an outsized impact in deciding how Michigan’s 15 electoral college votes will be cast. According to political scientist Youssef Chouhoud, Michigan is home to more than 200,000 Muslim registered voters. Over the past year, Muslims’ support for the Democratic Party has plummeted. In a recent poll fielded between Aug. 25 and Aug. 27, the Council on American Islamic Relations found that Jill Stein is leading Muslim voters in Michigan; 40% of Muslims surveyed in that poll supported Stein, 18% supported Trump and only 12% supported Harris. And, as Harris’ support for Israel remains steadfast while Israel continues its assaults on Gaza and now Lebanon, she has arguably alienated these voters who could have been a reliable source of electoral support for her. What will the role of youth voters be in Michigan’s outcome? Young voters in Michigan present a potential stream of untapped support for the Democratic Party. Though young voters have historically turned out at lower rates than older Americans, young voters in Michigan stand out from their peers. Fifty-four percent of Michiganders 18 to 29 years old voted in the 2020 election, a 20% increase from 2016. In the 2022 midterms, when young voters aged 18 to 29 in Michigan recorded the highest voter turnout in all the country, they demonstrated how impactful their votes were in enshrining abortion and voting rights in the state constitution. That year, about 75% of students who were registered voters at the University of Michigan and Michigan State University cast ballots. This year, however, how successful Harris has been in activating the youth vote remains to be seen. Certainly, young Michiganders are more enthusiastic about her candidacy than they were Biden’s, but recent analyses by Michigan State University political scientist Corwin Smidt indicate that so far youth turnout in Michigan’s November 2024 election lags behind their 2020 levels. What’s more, young voters were a key part of the “uncommitted” coalition who sent a strong message to then presidential nominee Biden over his enabling of the Israeli war in Gaza during the February 2024 primary election. But Harris is making strides to connect with young voters by establishing offices at campuses across the state. Importantly, young voters could not only shape the outcome of the presidential election, but also the partisan balance in Congress, given that young voters at Michigan State University will have the opportunity to cast a ballot in the race for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, which is among the 26 toss-up districts in the country. It will be all eyes on Michigan Tuesday - and if you are covering, Nazita Lajevardi is available to help. Simnply click on her profile below to arrange an interview today.
The impending U.S. presidential election is already breaking records. Voters are beginning to cast their ballots as early as 45 days before Election Day. Voting early by in-person or mail-in absentee ballot is typically a popular choice amongst Democrat voters, but this election season has seen an uptick in Republican voters choosing to cast their ballot before November 5. This has led to record numbers of early turnout in vital swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina. Will these increased numbers impact the election and voter turnout overall? Political expert, Dr. Mark Caleb Smith, pointed out the anxiety that this election is causing Americans and how that may affect voting. Here are three key takeaways from his recent interview: Both the Republican and Democrat political parties speak about the upcoming election in terms of fear, claiming drastic consequences if the other party wins the presidential office. Has this heightened anxiety pushed more Americans to cast their ballot early? Smith points out that many voters feel immense pressure as they prepare to choose a candidate. As Americans worry about the perceived high stakes of this election, will the U.S. see an increase not only in early voting but in voting overall? As nearly 19 million Americans head to the polls early, will their ballots be affected by this highly-charged election season and increased threat of misinformation spread on social media? If you are a journalist covering this election season, our experts are here to help with all of your questions and stories. Dr. Mark Caleb Smith is the Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. Mark is available to speak with the media regarding election emotions, the upcoming election, and the aftermath. Simply click on his icon or email mweinstein@cedarville.edu to arrange an interview.
It's the right of every citizen - and with a presidential election less than two weeks away, a team of social workers from UConn are working to make sure every voice is heard as the U.S. choses a new leader on Nov. 5. Voting Is Social Work - a campaign led by Tanya Rhodes Smith, director of the Nancy A. Humphreys Institute for Political Social Work at the UConn School of Social Work - is getting a lot of attention for its work engaging social workers to help empower some of the most vulnerable and disenfranchised groups to get registered and cast their ballots in local elections. “Voting is complicated, and it’s intimidating, especially for vulnerable populations, like the unhoused, the formerly incarcerated, or those living in congregate care,” says Rhodes Smith. “We know that being a non-voter is a very isolating space, because voting is highly relational. Campaigns generally ignore non-voters— you don’t get campaign materials, or someone knocking on your door. Information on candidates in state and local elections in communities with low turnout can be very hard to find or even nonexistent.” That’s where social workers, explains Rhodes Smith, can play an important role in helping disenfranchised voters understand their rights – and register to vote. Money, Power, and Resources As co-founders since 2015, UConn’s Humphreys Institute has been the institutional home for Voting Is Social Work. Also known as the National Social Work Voter Mobilization Campaign, Voting Is Social Work supports nonpartisan voter engagement as central to social work’s mission, ethical mandate, and impact. “We’ve always believed that social work has the power to transform democracy,” says Rhodes Smith, “and we believe every social worker – and social service agency – should include nonpartisan voter engagement into their practice and work. Because we reach non-voters – those who are least likely to vote.” October 16 - UConn Today It's an initiative catching attention across the country. Research has linked voting to higher earning and education, better health outcomes, and lower rates of recidivism. But education is key, particularly for individuals with special circumstances, like the formerly incarcerated, people living in congregate care, and the unhoused. Homelessness comes with a new, unique set of challenges during an election cycle. However, homeless residents have protections, including voting rights. Nationwide, only 10% of unhoused people vote each year, according to the Institute of Political Social Work at the University of Connecticut. Many social workers in Connecticut are working to educate unhoused residents about their voting rights, according to UConn Social Work professor Tanya Rhodes Smith, director of the Nancy A. Humphreys Institute for Political Social Work. “When you ask somebody if they would like to check their voter registration, they may say, ‘I'm not eligible,’ or ‘I've never voted,’ and that's really important information for you to know,” Rhodes Smith said. “It really tells a story about them.” About 60% of eligible voters turnout in presidential election years, but increasing voting rates is important for local elections as well, Rhodes Smith said. “When you have 10% to 15% [voter turnout], that's not an accountable government, that's a government that's accountable to the 10% to 15%,” Rhodes Smith said. “We've seen it over and over in Bridgeport, that nothing changes because that turnout rate doesn't go up, and so there is no accountability when you have an unhealthy democracy.” October 10 - WNPR Looking to know more about this important work? If so, let us help. Tanya Rhodes Smith specializes in policy development, nonprofit administration, voter engagement and legislative advocacy. She's available to speak with media about this important topic - simply click on her icon now to arrange an interview.
ExpertSpotlight: A Look Back at the First American Election
The first U.S. election, held in 1789, marks a pivotal moment in the founding of American democracy, establishing a framework that has shaped the nation's political landscape for centuries. As the world’s first modern constitutional republic, this election not only elected George Washington as the first president but also introduced a new system of governance that emphasized the balance of power and individual rights. The significance of this event reaches far beyond the political sphere, touching on issues of civic engagement, representation, and the evolution of democratic ideals. Key sub-topics that may interest journalists and the public include: The Founding Fathers’ Vision for Democracy: Exploring the role of key figures like George Washington, John Adams, and Thomas Jefferson in shaping the U.S. political system, and how their ideas still influence governance today. Evolution of the Electoral Process: Examining how the original electoral system was structured, including the Electoral College, and how it has changed over time in response to shifting political dynamics. Voter Rights and Representation: Analyzing who was eligible to vote in 1789 compared to today, shedding light on the ongoing struggle for voting rights and representation for marginalized groups. Impact on Modern Democracies: Investigating how the U.S. election model influenced other nations' democratic structures and how it continues to serve as both an inspiration and a subject of debate. The Role of Media and Public Discourse: Looking at how the first election was communicated to the public and the early role of newspapers, pamphlets, and public speeches in shaping voter opinion. Legacy of George Washington’s Presidency: Reflecting on George Washington’s leadership style, his decision to step down after two terms, and the precedent it set for future presidential transitions. The history of the first U.S. election offers a lens through which to explore broader questions about governance, the role of leadership, and the ongoing evolution of democracy, providing journalists with numerous story angles relevant to both historical analysis and contemporary political discourse. Connect with an expert about the history of US elections: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com