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It's October ... and that means one thing in America: Major League Baseball playoffs are set to begin. It means wall to wall broadcasts of games, massive advertising buys and gate receipts that means a serious stream of revenue for all of the teams, players and owners who made it through a long season and survived to be one of the dozen teams left to play for the Commissioner's Trophy. It's going to be a wild few weeks for baseball fans and the reporters covering the games. And if you're a journalist looking to know how important the marketing and business sides are to the the playoffs - then let us help with your stories. Kirk Wakefield, Ph.D., is The Edwin W. Streetman Professor of Retail Marketing at Baylor University, where he is the Executive Director of the Curb Center for Sales Strategy in Sports and Entertainment (S3E) program in the Hankamer School of Business. Kirk is available to speak with media - simply click on his icon ow to arrange an interview today.
An innovative Baylor University study has shed light on the often-overlooked experiences of women doing “daughtering” in families, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, which created immense challenges in their relationships with parents and other family members. “Daughtering” refers to the ways adult daughters contribute to flourishing family relationships, according to Allison M. Alford, Ph.D., clinical associate professor in the Department of Information Systems and Business Analytics in Baylor’s Hankamer School of Business. Alford’s latest research, Daughterwork in Times of Social Upheaval, published in Qualitative Research Reports in Communication, explores how societal changes caused by the pandemic required women to reconfigure their relationships with their parents and emphasizes the critical role adult daughters play in maintaining family connections, particularly in times of crisis. "This study highlights how social upheavals like the COVID-19 pandemic can both challenge and reinforce the essential work that daughters do in their families," Alford said. “Past research has shown that women often bear the brunt of responsibility when crises occur at home, work or in the extended family. Particularly for professional women – those who are balancing changing workplace demands alongside immediate and extended family concerns as well as societal shifts – increased care needs or the perception of such for parents can increase stress and negatively impact well-being, yet women still persist in providing upstream support for a variety of reasons.” Using in-depth, semi-structured interviews of women who identified change to their daughtering, professional and family lives, Alford discovered four themes about how a crisis can provide opportunities for flexible daughtering, meaningful connection and reflection on one’s most important relationships. Daughtering is adaptive action The pandemic forced many daughters to rapidly adjust their caregiving practices with their parents. When normal forms of communication were not an option, many daughters turned to technology to bridge the gap. This included increased use of video calls, social media, and other digital communication tools to maintain contact and promote family connection. Alford’s research found that daughters also took on new, often physically demanding tasks to ensure their parents’ well-being – delivering groceries, managing household repairs and organizing virtual family gatherings. “These actions were not only about adapting to the context of social upheaval but also about intensifying their caring efforts to meet the evolving needs of their parents,” Alford said. Daughtering is adaptive timing The study revealed that daughters had to maintain a heightened state of vigilance, constantly prepared to address unexpected crises, Alford said. Unlike the more predictable daughtering routines of the past, the pandemic introduced a level of uncertainty that required daughters to be in a near-constant state of readiness. One study participant described her experience as being in "constant problem-solving mode," which added significant stress to her daily life. “This ‘adaptive timing’ meant that daughters often found themselves juggling sudden care demands with their own professional and personal obligations,” Alford said. “This theme underscores the mental and emotional toll on daughters who had to manage the unpredictable nature of daughtering during the pandemic.” Daughtering is a priority Despite the challenges, Alford said, many daughters reported that they continued to prioritize their daughtering responsibilities, driven by a deep sense of familial duty and personal values. “For these women, daughtering was not just another task but a core part of their identity, often taking precedence over their professional responsibilities,” Alford said. “This commitment was evident in the time and resources they dedicated to maintaining their relationships with their parents, even when it meant sacrificing their own well-being or career advancement.” One participant noted, “I value family, so I still made it a priority,” reflecting a sentiment shared by many women in the study. This theme, Alford noted, highlights the internal conflict that many daughters faced, balancing their dedication to family with the competing demands of their own lives. Daughtering involves reflecting Challenges prompt many daughters to reflect deeply on their roles and relationships, and the COVID-19 pandemic was no different, Alford said. “This period of social upheaval generated a moment of introspection, leading daughters to reassess their priorities, boundaries and the nature of their relationships with their parents,” she said. “For some, this reflection led to a greater appreciation for the importance of family, while for others, it was a time to set new boundaries and redefine their roles within the family structure.” One participant observed, “COVID was a catalyst for emotional support,” while another reflected on the need to “carve out time mentally” to fulfill her roles as both a daughter and a professional. This theme illustrates how the pandemic not only challenged daughters but also provided an opportunity for personal growth and redefinition of their familial roles, Alford said. Key strategies to recognizing daughters’ “invisible” labor The research underscores the critical need for greater recognition and support for the invisible labor performed by adult daughters, suggesting that both families and society at large have a role to play in alleviating the burden on these women. “It’s crucial that we not only acknowledge the burden placed on these women, “Alford said, “but also seek ways to support them, whether through family empathy, shared responsibilities or societal recognition.” Alford emphasizes the importance of three key strategies: Awareness and acknowledgment Families should recognize the labor involved in daughtering and ensure it is acknowledged and appreciated. This can help prevent the exploitation of this labor and ensure that daughters feel valued for their contributions. Outsourcing and support Where possible, families should consider outsourcing some care tasks or providing additional support to relieve the burden on daughters. This might include hiring help for household chores or seeking external emotional support through counseling. Expressing gratitude Expressing gratitude and acknowledging the efforts of daughters can significantly enhance their sense of well-being and fulfillment. This recognition is vital in helping them feel that their contributions are meaningful and valued. National Daughter’s Day National Daughter’s Day is Sept. 25, and while this holiday has been around since 1932 to honor the daughters in our lives, it can often quietly pass us by. Alford recommends parents using this day to officially acknowledge all the ways in which daughters support their families.
How Will Rate Cuts Affect the Election?
On September 18, the Federal Reserve established the first interest rate cut since the Covid pandemic in 2020. The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by half a percentage point – a much larger change than the typical quarter percentage point cut. Dr. Jeff Haymond, dean of the Robert W. Plaster School of Business at Cedarville University, shared insight about the motivations behind this rate cut in a recent interview. Here are some key points: The United States' national debt has been described as a "ticking time bomb." What impact will this and future interest rate cuts have on the national debt? In light of this recent move, current presidential candidate Donald Trump has articulated his economic plan to put a cap on credit card interest rates. Would this bring down the cost of living in the United States, or will it lead to less options for the consumer? This slashing of the interest rate comes only a short time before the presidential election, with many claiming that this cut was, in fact, a political move. Will it affect the decisions of voters as the election draws near? If you are covering the recent interest rate cut or potential for future cuts and need to know more, let us help with your questions and stories. Dr. Jeff Haymond is an expert on this subject and is available to speak to media regarding the action of the Federal Reserve and what this means for families in the United States – simply click on his icon or email mweinstein@cedarville.edu to arrange an interview.
EU-UK Trade Deal continues to stifle trade with 27% drop in exports since 2021
New report shows persistent stifling effects of the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK-EU trade relations Monthly data show a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU between 2021 and 2023 Recommendations for policy interventions include to negotiate sector-specific deals, engage with individual EU countries, and work on reducing non-tariff barriers A comprehensive analysis by researchers at the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University reveals that negative impacts of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) have intensified over time. The new report, Unbound: UK Trade Post Brexit, also shows a 33% reduction in the variety of goods exported, with the agricultural, textiles, clothing and materials sectors most affected. To assess the impact of the UK-EU TCA, the authors analysed monthly import and export between the UK and the EU, from January 2017 to December 2023 and separated into pre- and post-January 2021 when the agreement came into force. The monthly data shows a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% decline in imports from the EU. Lead author, Professor Jun Du of Aston University says: “The Trade and Cooperation Agreement introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports. Without urgent policy interventions, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market will continue to weaken.” The UK-EU TCA redefined trade and investment rules and market access between the UK and the EU. Since it came into force, the UK government has negotiated several trade agreements, but the EU remains the UK’s largest trade partner. Exports for most sectors have decreased since January 2021, although the impact is varied. Agrifood, textile and clothing and material-based manufacturing have been among the hardest hit, with substantial declines in both export value and the variety of products exported. At the same time, some sectors such as tobacco, railway and aircraft manufacturing have seen modest increases in varieties of products exported. On the import side, most sectors have shrunk in both value and variety, particularly agrifood products, optical, textile and material-based manufacturing. A few sectors, for example, ships and furniture, have demonstrated noticeable increases in import product variety. The large variations across different goods categories and EU trade partners underscore the uneven effects of Brexit and the TCA on UK-EU trade dynamics, highlighting the need to understand the nuances and come up with tailored strategies that address the unique challenges of each sector within the new regulatory environment. The researchers make recommendations, outlining how sector-specific negotiations, streamlining customs procedures with digital technologies and reducing regulatory divergence could mitigate some of the impacts. Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, the report’s co-author says: “Our findings indicate a decoupling of the UK from key EU final goods markets, accompanied by a shift in UK supply chains toward geographically closer EU trading partners for exports and smaller countries for imports. “This shift raises concerns and underscores the urgent need for a strategic reconfiguration of UK supply chains to maintain competitiveness.” Professor Du continues: “The TCA has introduced considerable barriers to UK-EU trade, particularly through increased Non-tariff measures (NTMs). “Addressing these issues through targeted improvements to the TCA is crucial to ensuring that UK businesses remain competitive in the European market. A structured, multi-faceted approach is necessary.” To find out more about these findings, click here.
Covering the Fed's Interest Rate Decision? Our Expert can Help
The Federal Open Market Committee has three meetings left in 2024 and markets expect interest rates to be cut. This could have a serious impact on the economy as inflation trends downward and restrictive monetary policies are now ready to be loosened. There will be a lot of media attention and speculation around the September 18 decision and its anticipated effects on the global economy. It's why experts like Florida Atlantic's William Luther are ready to help with any questions or coverage. William J. Luther, Ph.D., is an associate professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University, director of the American Institute for Economic Research’s Sound Money Project, and an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives. The Social Science Research Network currently ranks him in the top five percent of business authors. *** Recent Media: Fox News: GOBankingRates: Newsweek: William Luther, Ph.D., an assistant professor in FAU’s Economics Department, has expertise in economic growth, monetary policies, business cycles and cryptocurrencies. Luther’s research has obtained media interest across the nation, including recent coverage by The Wall Street Journal, Politico and Florida Trend. If you're looking to know more - let us help. Simply click on William's icon now to set up an interview today.
Five ways going green can improve your bottom line: A guide for West Midlands SMEs
As sustainability becomes a central focus for businesses across the globe, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the West Midlands are uniquely positioned to benefit from going green. Whether you're running a corner shop, a hairdressing salon, a manufacturing operation, or any other type of small business, sustainable practices can significantly enhance your bottom line. Here are five key ways that adopting green strategies can lead to financial gains. Reduced operational costs One of the most immediate and tangible benefits of going green is the reduction in operational costs. Energy efficiency, waste reduction, and resource conservation are all areas where small changes can lead to significant savings. For instance, simply switching to energy-efficient lighting can reduce electricity bills by up to 75 per cent—a substantial saving for any business, particularly for small retailers or service providers where margins can be tight. Additionally, the UK government offers incentives to help businesses transition to more energy-efficient operations, making it easier for SMEs to invest in these changes. Join Aston University’s workshop on 18 September and take advantage of a free energy assessment for your business. Learn practical steps to audit your energy use and uncover cost-saving opportunities tailored to your specific industry needs. Access to new markets and opportunities As the UK government and local authorities push for a greener economy, there are growing opportunities for businesses that align with these goals. SMEs that adopt sustainable practices may qualify for grants, tax reliefs, and other incentives designed to support green initiatives. For example, local councils in the West Midlands have programmes such as ‘BEAS and Decarbonisation Net Zero’ aimed at helping small businesses reduce their carbon footprint, which can be especially beneficial for almost all sectors where environmental impact is a growing concern. At the workshop, we’ll delve into the funding options and partnerships available to West Midlands SMEs committed to sustainability, helping you unlock new growth opportunities. Increased marketability Consumers are increasingly favouring businesses that demonstrate a commitment to sustainability. According to a study by Nielsen, 66 per cent of global consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable goods, and this trend is evident in the UK as well. By adopting green practices, SMEs in the West Midlands can enhance their brand reputation. This can translate to increased sales, customer loyalty, and even the ability to charge premium prices for sustainable products or services. In a competitive market, your environmental credentials can be a powerful differentiator. Attend Aston University’s workshop to learn from real-life success stories and see how businesses are already turning sustainability into a competitive advantage. Long-term resilience and competitiveness Sustainability isn’t just about immediate financial gains; it’s also about future-proofing your business. As regulations around carbon emissions and environmental impact become stricter, businesses that have already integrated green practices will find it easier to comply, avoiding potential fines and disruptions. For SMEs in sectors like manufacturing, where regulatory pressures are particularly high, adopting sustainable practices now can help ensure long-term competitiveness and resilience. A prime example of this shift is the NHS, which is actively working towards a Net Zero supply chain by 2045. The NHS is urging its suppliers to adopt sustainable practices, with a strong focus on reducing carbon emissions. Businesses that fail to align with these expectations risk losing contracts and falling behind competitors who are meeting these sustainability criteria. At the workshop, you'll learn more about sustainability strategy that can keep your business competitive and resilient in an ever-changing market. Enhanced employee engagement and productivity Increasingly, employees are seeking to work for companies that align with their personal values, including a commitment to sustainability. While this trend is more pronounced among larger companies, it’s also becoming relevant for small businesses, particularly those in industries where attracting and retaining talent is competitive. According to research, 74 per cent of employees feel more fulfilled when they work for a company that is making a positive impact on the environment. For small businesses, fostering a sustainable workplace can enhance employee morale, attract top talent, and reduce turnover rates. However, the degree to which this resonates can depend on your specific workforce. In sectors like tech, professional services, or among younger employees, sustainability is often a key consideration. On the other hand, in some more traditional industries, other factors like job security and compensation might be more important, though sustainability still adds value. Sign up for our workshop to discover how your small or medium business—regardless of sector—can implement effective sustainability practices and energy efficiency strategies to drive growth. This event is open to all SMEs across the West Midlands! Click here to register now. You'll also have the opportunity to book a free energy assessment on the spot and apply for match funding of up to £100,000 to make your business more energy efficient.
Aston University expert explores sustainability in SME supply chains in new book
Professor Prasanta Kumar Dey is a co-author of Supply Chain Sustainability in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises The book provides a comprehensive roadmap for SMEs to achieve sustainable supply chains Using real world case studies, it offers practical guidance and expert insights for researchers and industry practitioners. An expert in sustainable supply chain operations and the circular economy at Aston University has co-authored a new book focused on the sustainability of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). Dr Prasanta Kumar Dey, professor of operations management at Aston Business School, has written Supply Chain Sustainability in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises alongside Dr Soumyadeb Chowdhury of Toulouse Business School and Dr Chrisovalantis Malesios from the Agricultural University of Athens. This comprehensive book examines the sustainability of supply chains in SMEs across developed and emerging economies. It draws on contributions from experts and examines case studies from countries including Thailand, Bangladesh, France, Spain, Austria and Greece. The book offers practical guidance for researchers and industry practitioners. It explores the trade-offs between economic, environmental and social aspects of sustainability, the current state of sustainable supply chain practices and critical success factors across various industries. The book highlights the experience of SMEs on the decarbonisation journey, from the concept to the implementation of the energy efficiency measures. This experience helps not only to standardise the customers’ journey towards decarbonisation but it also facilitates the undertaking of cost-benefit analysis for decarbonisation measures. Professor Prasanta Dey said: “Small and medium-sized enterprises are the backbone of economies worldwide. “Through this book, we aim to provide a comprehensive roadmap for SMEs to achieve sustainable supply chains, balancing economic growth with environmental stewardship and social responsibility. “The selection of the most effective enablers across facilities, operational processes and logistics for decarbonisation is made easier through the case studies of the book. “By learning from real-world case studies and expert insights, businesses can navigate the complexities of sustainability and drive impactful change. These help to develop a comprehensive reporting template for communicating energy audit outcomes to specific company for their further actions. The book also helps SMEs to develop implementation plan for decarbonisation measures. “Adopting a carbon footprint tool and business modelling technique from the book helps a decarbonization project identify energy-efficient strategies that reduce emissions and enhance economic, environmental and social performance.” You can purchase a copy of the book here.
The project is a collaboration between Aston University, the University of Sheffield and The Resolution Foundation The project aims to leverage new, big data to help understand regional economic disparities It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). Aston University, in collaboration with the University of Sheffield and The Resolution Foundation, has launched a significant research project to understand regional productivity and wage disparities in the UK. The project has received £300,000 in funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) to uncover the factors driving economic imbalances using recent, big data. The research will analyse how various factors such as workers' education, location choices, business types and sizes and regional infrastructure contribute to wage and productivity differences over the past 20 years. The aim is to understand these differences and suggest practical solutions for national and local governments. Researchers will explore potential drivers of regional productivity gaps, including the clustering of highly skilled workers, regional industrial structures, and local endowments like transport links and housing availability. The findings will help identify effective policy measures to reduce these imbalances. This project also aims to demonstrate how data analysis can help understand regional economic disparities. By reducing start-up costs for future research, it will build a community focused on tackling spatial economic imbalances. Dr Anastasios Kitsos, a senior lecturer in economics at Aston Business School and principal investigator (PI) on the project, said: “This project will analyse the relative importance of productivity drivers using novel, granular data from linked administrative datasets covering workers, firms and localities in England since the 2000s. “This analysis will shed light into how much spatial productivity gaps can be explained by the characteristics of people, firms and places over time, and identify intrinsically more productive locations. “Understanding and addressing the root causes of the UK's severe spatial disparities in economic performance is crucial for fostering inclusive, regionally balanced growth and enhancing national productivity. This project aims to provide actionable insights and build a foundation for future research and policy development in this critical area. “The results will be shared in a comprehensive report detailing these influences over the past 20 years and offering policy recommendations for governments on skills, innovation, infrastructure, and local development strategies.”
West Sanctions Russian Aviation, But Moscow Decides to Keep Planes Flying Despite Risks When the U.S. and its allies slapped sanctions on Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, severing aviation links was at the top of the list. Direct flights vanished and Russian airlines lost access to spare parts for their foreign airplanes. In retaliation, Vladimir Putin’s regime impounded foreign aircraft and shut off the world’s largest air space to countries imposing sanctions. Not since the early 1980s—when the U.S. suspended routes to the USSR over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, repression in Poland and downing of a Korean Air Lines plane—have aviation ties between the two countries dipped so low. Aviation sanctions today are having an impact but come with a major risk. If the fatal crash of a jetliner killing hundreds is linked to the lack of spare parts, Putin will blame sanctions and the West. The stakes are high as Russia seeks to use any issue from cluster bombs to soccer to widen cracks in Western unity over Ukraine. To get ahead of this, U.S. policymakers and their allies need to better explain the effects of sanctions, why they’re worth the risk and why the Russian state, not the West, is ultimately responsible for any fatal crash. U.S. government assessments place Russian aviation among sectors negatively impacted by sanctions. A closer look shows widening success in degrading this increasingly weak link in Russia’s political economy. By late 2021, foreign aircraft comprised 70% of Russia’s fleet of 801 passenger airplanes, which included 298 Airbuses, 236 Boeings, and 23 other foreign aircraft such as Embraers. In addition, 95% of Russian airline flights were on foreign-made aircraft. Consequently, sanctions aimed at depriving spare parts for foreign airplanes have caused many disruptions such as fare increases to cover higher costs of repairs. Some of Russia’s 53 airlines have periodically suspended or stopped flying some of their foreign planes. Reports of Russian airlines’ cannibalization of foreign aircraft similarly underscore a dire situation. Less well known is how sanctions hurt Russian manufacturing since Western technology is critical to aircraft such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which uses a French-Russian engine (though Russians are working on a substitution). Production of the Yakovlev design bureau’s MC-21 passenger airplane faces significant delays due to sanctions that force substitution of its Western-made parts. Sanctions even helped push Russia out of a joint venture with China to produce the CR929 widebody aircraft. While China is happy to help Russia thwart sanctions, this plane needs Western systems that sanctions complicate. In response, Russia has adapted to and thwarted some aviation sanctions, which I predicted would happen because Putin’s regime is reproducing a state-centered aviation sector rooted in the Soviet past. The war has accelerated the state’s growing control over this vital economic sector, which began before Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Examples include the state’s 51% ownership of Aeroflot since 1994, the merger of two smaller, state-run airlines in 2003 and the consolidation of aircraft manufacturing in the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), which was created in 2006. More recently, the Russian state has helped the country’s airlines weather sanctions by facilitating the illegal confiscation of foreign aircraft. Russian airlines have also proven resourceful by purchasing spare parts through brokers in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Better known for supplying Russia with drones, Iran also agreed to provide Russian airlines with spare parts and has been fixing an Aeroflot Airbus for months. Many foreign airlines continue to fly to Russia, and Putin’s regime rewards friendly countries with overflight rights. But the longer sanctions remain, the harder it’s getting for Russia. To regain profitable foreign routes, its airlines are receiving government assistance to legitimately purchase the Western aircraft they illegally seized, although recent holdups in allocating such funds are causing doubts. In a throwback to the Soviet era, Putin’s regime boasts that Russia doesn’t need the West’s airplanes anyway since its one manufacturer, the UAC, will pick up the slack. Such import substitution is unlikely to succeed, as multiple delays suggest. More likely, Russia’s aviation sector will grow more reliant on the state, if not actually part of it like the UAC. This will make Russian aviation less efficient, less innovative and more expensive. Iranian airlines, which have long suffered under foreign sanctions despite some success circumventing them, present their Russian counterparts with a grim vision of the future such as being shut out of lucrative air travel markets and falling behind in emerging aviation technology. How does this shape safety in Russia’s skies? The short answer is that it’s not as bad as headlines suggest and the impact of sanctions is ambiguous at best. Click bait stories paint a dire picture but often conflate commercial, military and general aviation into alarming numbers that do not accurately capture what ordinary passengers face. Some accounts, such as one claiming 120 accidents occurred in 2023, provide few details or sources. Annual safety reports from Russia’s Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) allow for comparison over time but often obscure Russia’s situation by combining data from each post-Soviet state it monitors. Its 2019 report is mysteriously missing and its decision not to investigate the fatal crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Embraer Legacy 600 plane suggests meddling from above. That said, the IAC source base is the most systematic we have. Keeping in mind the potential for the politicization of its conclusions, what does a critical reading of its data alongside other sources suggest? First, fatal crashes in commercial and general aviation actually decreased in Russia from 18 in 2021 to 13 in 2022, and related deaths decreased from 70 to 24. Data for the first half of 2023 points in the same direction, with six fatal crashes and nine deaths. This trend was likely helped by the 14% decline in traffic after February 2022. While so many fatal crashes sound substantial, all but three in 2021 and all but one in 2022 involved small aircraft under 5,700 kilograms, not the jetliners we associate with most commercial flying. Absolute figures on crashes and deaths capture headlines but they don’t say much about safety without considering their relation to passengers flown or departures. According to the IAC, the rate of aviation accidents and the rate of fatal crashes per one million departures both increased from 2020 to 2021 but then decreased in 2022. The IAC does not single out Russia from other post-Soviet states for this metric. But since Russia has the largest aviation sector among those countries, these data suggest that its aviation safety has not dramatically worsened since early 2022. Indeed, even critics who argue that Russian airlines are less safe partly because of sanctions conclude that “2022 and 2023 were also good years for airline safety [in Russia] compared to 2021.” Comparisons with the U.S. similarly suggest that passenger aviation is not as disastrous as some headlines suggest. The IAC data indicates that Russia and other post-Soviet states are usually but not always behind the U.S. in passenger aviation safety. In 2018, for example, IAC countries reported a 0.8 rate of fatal crashes per 1 million departures of passenger aircraft above 5,700 kilograms. Comparable statistics from the National Transportation Safety Board showed a 0.11 rate for that year for scheduled U.S. carrier flights. In 2019, the rates were 2.3 (IAC) and 0.10 (U.S.), but in 2020, both IAC countries and the U.S. enjoyed a 0.0 rate of fatal crashes. The following year, however, IAC countries reported a 1.9 rate of fatal crashes, whereas the NTSB reported a 0.0 rate.1 Against this background of Russian airline safety, let’s now turn to the impact of sanctions. While some commentators emphasize that no fatal crashes have been tied to sanctions, others claim they make Russian airlines unsafe and that it’s only a matter of time before such a fatal crash happens. Some even argue that life-threatening dangers prove aviation sanctions are effective and could help turn Russians against Putin. To reassure the public, Russian aviation officials insist the country’s airlines are safe despite sanctions, as do Russian business media and aviation journalists. This plays to Putin’s claims to legitimacy based in part on withstanding anything the West throws at him. In sharp contrast, Ukrainian media tells Russians their airlines are a disaster waiting to happen precisely because of sanctions. Independent Russian journalists banished by Putin concur, raising alarms about efforts to cover up the impact of sanctions and about the many ways Russian airlines cut corners on safety. In short, an information war exists around the morbid question of whether a Russian jetliner will crash and the role sanctions could play. Fears of a fatal crash were validated by the emergency landing of a Ural Airlines A320 in September, apparently caused by malfunctioning hydraulics tied to sanctions. But a closer examination by a Russian aviation journalist suggests the pilots played a more important role by pressing on to an airport for which there wasn’t enough fuel. Recent Russian state assessments of aviation safety similarly point to pilot error and poor training as the chief causes of aviation incidents. More generally, airplane disasters are usually caused by a convergence of factors—bad weather, a manageable mechanical failure and pilot error—not just one problem. In public discussions, however, pinpointing sanctions’ role tracks more with the politics of the war than technical expertise. At the end of the day, Russian airlines and aviation authorities are solely responsible for putting planes in the sky and Russians’ lives at risk. They continue to claim that everything is fine. But if a fatal crash of a Boeing or Airbus flown by a Russian airline kills hundreds, I predict this narrative will quickly change. Putin will blame the West as he does for everything else affecting his legitimacy, from Russia’s economic problems and his diplomatic failures to protests against his regime and even the war he started in Ukraine. Such a scenario will be a serious test for policymakers who argue that punishing Russia with sanctions is still worth it. To prepare for this, they need to take a page from the Biden administration’s release of intelligence on Russia’s military buildup before the full-scale invasion: publicize as much intelligence as possible on sanctions and their impact, as well as Russia’s aviation sector and what it does or doesn’t do to ensure safety. As Putin’s regime falls back on Soviet-era secrecy about airline safety, sharing such intelligence will be a powerful tool. This will also contribute to broader Western efforts at combatting Russia’s better known disinformation campaigns such as those denying its human rights abuses in Ukraine.
Expert Perspective: UMW's Steven E. Harris lends his opinion to The Russia File
The following piece was written by Steven E. Harris published by the Wilson Center in April 2024 Sanctions Are Spoiling Russia’s Plans to Make Its Own Airplanes Putin’s regime is feeling confident these days. Advances on the battlefield in Ukraine, expansions in armaments production, and the dithering of Republicans in the U.S. Congress show the war has turned in Russia’s favor. A well-orchestrated presidential election and some real public support buoy the regime. Political opponents are either dead, in prison, or in exile. Putin’s regime has also declared victory in blunting Western sanctions and now plans to permanently thwart them with programs of import substitution. Nowhere is this better seen than in aviation, where the state proclaims it will produce over a thousand new airplanes to replace the foreign aircraft its airlines have long flown. But this bold vision for aviation autarky has little chance of succeeding. Russia’s Short-Term Success in Blunting Aviation Sanctions Thus far, Putin’s regime has weathered aviation sanctions through a two-pronged strategy. First, Russian airlines illegally kept about 400 foreign airplanes—primarily Airbuses and Boeings—owned by foreign leasing companies. Second, the state bankrolled settlement claims in order to purchase some of these airplanes so that airlines could fly them abroad without risk of repossession and reduce their foreign debt. To date, approximately 170 foreign airplanes have been legally acquired in this fashion, and the Ministry of Transportation recently asked for more cash to continue settling claims on the remaining 230 foreign planes. The next question is how long Russian airlines, from the state-owned flag carrier Aeroflot to private companies such as S7 and Ural Air Lines, can continue flying their foreign planes. As I wrote in late October, safety has been degraded far less than predicted. But in the absence of spare parts, software updates, and thorough maintenance by foreign providers, Russian airlines have about two years before they will have to ground Boeings and Airbuses for major repairs performed using third-party spare parts. Anticipating the eventual retirement of foreign planes, Putin’s regime has embarked on a massive program to make all-Russian airplanes. This program promises independence from Western technology and leasing companies but reveals the success of sanctions and fundamental weaknesses in state capacity. The 2030 Aviation Manufacturing Plan Announced in June 2022, the program calls for the state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec to manufacture 1,036 airplanes with only Russian parts by 2030. In January 2024, the state allocated 283 billion rubles (U.S. $3.1 billion) to help finance the production of 609 airplanes and prioritize medium-haul aircraft in the overall manufacturing plan. Before sanctions, Russian manufacturers produced a small number of narrow body, medium-haul airplanes such as the MC-21 and the Superjet-100 (SSJ-100) with Western components. Twelve SSJ-100s were manufactured in 2021 and ten the following year. Among the aircraft slated to replace Boeings and Airbuses, the plan called for production in 2023 of three medium-haul Tupolev-214 (Tu-214) airplanes and two Superjet-NEW planes (Superjet-100s with all-Russian parts). None of these were built. In fact, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) failed to manufacture a single passenger airplane in 2023. More recently, the UAC conceded further delays of up to two years for rollout of the MC-21, SSJ-NEW, and Tu-214, as well as of smaller, short-haul aircraft such as the Ilyushin-114 (Il-114) and the “Baikal.” The transition to total import substitution is proving difficult, making it impossible to fulfill early targets of the manufacturing plan. By withdrawing access to Western technology critical for manufacturing, sanctions have successfully shut down production. Russian manufacturers will produce at best inferior aircraft that fly shorter routes using more fuel. At its current rate, the UAC is unlikely to manufacture more than a dozen or so showcase narrow body airplanes before 2030. The manufacturer may have better luck producing simpler planes, such as the Baikal, but the state’s injection of 283 billion rubles doesn’t target its production or that of two other short-haul airplanes. Since the UAC will likely not meet the plan’s annual targets any time soon, Russia’s airlines will have to make do with their aging foreign airplanes and acquire spare parts from third parties. Putin admitted as much at his call-in event in December 2023, during which he praised the import-substitution plan but added that the government would continue to purchase illegally held foreign planes. What Will Russia’s Aviation Manufacturing Plan Actually Produce? Rather than produce new aircraft, the immediate purpose of the state’s manufacturing plan is political theater. The infusion of 283 billion rubles was meant to show the public, before the presidential elections, that Putin’s regime is serious about securing commercial aviation and to generate a sense of normalcy in the midst of war. In the long run, the manufacturing plan is more likely to produce further distortions in Russia’s political economy. These include corruption, secrecy, technologically backward aircraft, and even more state control over commercial aviation. The 283 billion rubles will help Rostec keep state-run subsidiaries such as the United Engine Corporation operating with soft budget constraints and favorable contracts that now lack any competition from Western firms. Executives will siphon off their share of the funds, while Putin’s regime will turn a blind eye as long as everyone remains loyal. If the manufacturing plan continues to falter, state-owned manufacturers will have more incentive to keep their failures secret. In 2023, for example, the Ural Civil Aviation Factory kept hidden cost overruns for the Baikal. When news of a 48 percent increase was finally publicized, Putin’s point man for the Far East region, Yuri Trutnev, was incensed and proclaimed, “Our people are like that: they don’t like to share information.” For now, Putin’s regime allows the Russian business media to report fairly openly about the country’s aviation industry on issues such as spare parts and safety, state subsidies, and shortfalls in production. But if commercial flying becomes more precarious and the manufacturing plan remains unfulfilled, the government will likely limit what the public knows about its airlines and long-term plans to maintain them. As the economic historian Mark Harrison shows in his recent book, Secret Leviathan, secrecy in the Soviet era significantly degraded state capacity in many areas, including production. Post-Soviet autocrats face a similar “secrecy/capacity tradeoff,” while newer techniques of disinformation further erode capacity. In attempting to revive the Soviet Union’s autarkic aviation industry, Putin’s regime will find it hard to avoid similar reductions in capacity. Insofar as Russia’s commercial aviation industry is concerned, the lesson for the West is that it pays to play the long game. Russia has effective tools for blunting sanctions in the short run, but in the long run it faces structural obstacles and the absence of Western technology, both of which will degrade this economic sector. The main question remains whether the United States and its allies can keep up the pressure by enforcing sanctions.