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Pressure to lower drug prices may lead to recalls, particularly of generics
The pressure being placed on drug companies to reduce prices as a result of President Donald Trump’s recent proposals, likely will intensify with the Democrats’ taking control of the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections. Research by George Ball, assistant professor of operations and decision technologies at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, highlights why consumers should be concerned beyond the high prices of their prescriptions. Ball is the lead author of a recent paper in the Journal of Operations Management which found that extreme price competition in the generic pharmaceutical market -- designed to make medications more affordable -- may be putting more patients at serious health risk. This was evidenced by a higher number of product recalls caused by manufacturing-related problems. "Extreme price competition in the generic pharmaceutical market has some unexpected risks that regulators and lawmakers may not have foreseen when pushing for cheaper drugs," Ball said. “There's a downside to cheaper drugs: You can't guarantee that they're going to be of the exact same quality," Ball said. "This research demonstrates that regulators and insurers may want to temper their intense public pressure placed upon pharmaceutical companies to bring prices down. Such pressure may come at a cost: poorly manufactured drugs." Ball can point to examples of recent generic drug recalls that occurred because of manufacturing problems. He is available at 812-856-0625 and gpball@indiana.edu. Copies of the paper are available.
There is no shortage of forecasting leading up to tomorrow's midterm elections -- what might very well be a once-in-a-generation event. Ask anyone who gets paid professionally to work in politics. But it’s not always about signs, speeches and rallies – there’s voter analysis and plain old math required to accurately predict an outcome to any election. Experts at the University of Mary Washington have developed a statistical model that uses the 2017 Virginia governor's election to predict that Democrats will pick up 44 seats tomorrow. If this prediction is correct, the experts argue two things: Virginia is the most important state in the nation and can tell us everything we need to know about future elections. And all of the events and "game-changers" don't matter. Trump's tweets and erratic behavior don't matter. Elections are easily predicted by simple fundamental things like presidential approval (in 2017) and what swing states like Virginia have to say. This was all done exactly a year ago. Chad Murphy is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Mary Washington and he has designed this prediction model. Chad is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Can white evangelicals still swing the midterms?
Evangelicals overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. And they overwhelmingly prefer Republican candidates in the midterms. They’re also reliable voters -- and support for Trump among white evangelicals remained at an all-time high with just days to go. Democrats, on the other hand, will rely on a less-certain electorate of young and diverse voters. This could make the difference in Tuesday's outcome. “Social conservatives could swing important races across the country if other voters don’t turn out in the numbers Democrats are hoping for,” writes Dylan Scott on Vox.com, which called white evangelicals “the sleeping giant of the midterms.” Still, according to The New York Times: “Young evangelicals are questioning the typical ties between evangelicalism and Republican politics. Many said it had caused schisms within their families. And many described a real struggle with an administration they see as hostile to immigrants, Muslims, L.G.B.T.Q. people, and the poor. They feel it reflects a loss of humanity, which conflicts with their spiritual call.” Emile Lester, assistant professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, is an expert in religion and politics whose research published by the First Amendment Center has been featured in The New York Times, The American Interest, USA Today and on C-Span, NPR and various other media outlets around the nation. Emile is available to speak with reporters about the political behavior of evangelical Christian voters. Just click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Close races coal country! Our expert can help explain what might happen in Virginia this Tuesday
This Tuesday may be the most watch midterms in decades. Though it is quickly coming cliché to say this might be the ‘most important’ election to date…it is definitely the most important election since the last election. In Virginia – it’s a fight for key Congressional seats as well as for Senate. The thing to keep in mind is, midterm voters are not the same group as general election voters, in Virginia, it’s the seniors vote that shows up and demands to be heard. That could play a big part in the re-election efforts of form Vice Presidential candidate and current Senator, Tim Kaine. As well, with President Trump keeping his commitment to coal – will that play a part? There are many issues at play this week in Virginia that will impact not just the state, but potentially the country. That’s where our experts can help. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. A published author and a media ‘go-to’ on U.S. politics, he is available to speak with media regarding this issue. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Closing the gender gap - A record number of female candidates are on the ballot this Tuesday
There’s been an enormous amount of attention put on the 2018 midterm elections. As a divided America competes for control of both Congress and the Senate – this election has seen a solid roster of candidates looking to represent both sides of the aisle in Washington. Another positive trend that has emerged has been the number of female candidates coming forward for election. In a piece written for Vox, by University of Mary Washington’s Rosalyn Cooperman – some impressive numbers were shown, however the disparity of female candidates between the two parties can not be ignored. "While women comprise 43 percent of Democratic candidates in 2018 congressional general elections, they make up only 22 percent of Republican Senate candidates and only 13 percent of Republican House candidates. While Democratic women won House primaries at rates 20 percentage points higher than Democratic men, Republican women and men won House primaries at similar rates. Currently, 73 percent of the women serving in Congress are Democrats. While 2018 may be a record-breaking year for women candidates in many ways, the midterm elections are unlikely to significantly alter the longstanding party gap among women officeholders." So, what can be done to close the gender gap among Republicans? Is it time parties considered parity or focused more on recruiting viable female candidates? Are women discouraged from running, and if so why? There are many questions to be answered here and that’s where our experts can help. Rosalyn Cooperman, associate professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and member of Gender Watch 2018, is an expert on women in politics. Rosalyn is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on her icon to arrange an interview.
Midterms - A referendum or reset from 2016?
It’s coming to America with the hype of an old-fashioned prize fight. Pundits have been speculating, party officials have been spinning and most of us have been guessing about what the outcome of the 2018 midterm elections will look like. Can we expect wholesale change in either House? Is this really a referendum on the Trump administration? And if Democrats seize control of Congress will it mean two years of stalemates or will an agenda surface to keep America moving forward? Or…if there is no actually change of power and the deck chairs essentially remain unshuffled in Congress and the Senate – is the confirmation that despite the outcries from the Left, America is content with the current administration’s agenda? There are many issues at play this week such as voter turnout, the urban/rural divide and if news coverage does swayed opinions. And, that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Stephen Farnsworth is professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. A published author and a media ‘go-to’ on U.S. politics, he is available to speak with media regarding this issue. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Terror sways voters - just not the way terrorists want
Those hoping to use fear to sway elections are in for a shock come election day. Terrorist attacks meant to suppress voter turnout — like the ethnically and racially-motivated attacks in Pittsburgh and Louisville, Kentucky in October — often have the opposite effect according to a study published by Augusta University researcher Dr. Lance Hunter. The study, published in “Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression” in 2017, examined voter turnout following terrorist attacks in seven major urban centers across the United States over the course of four decades. The study found that attacks not only increase voter turnout, but that the severity of an attack may also impact how more voters show up at the polls. “Severity was measured as the number of individuals wounded in attacks and the amount of property value damage that occurred due to attacks,” said Hunter, assistant professor of Political Science in the Katherine Reese Pamplin College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences. “We found that more severe terrorist attacks were associated with higher voter turnout.” The frequency of terror attacks also increased voter turnout, with every 10 attacks contributing to a 1.7 percent increase in turnout for gubernatorial elections and a 1.8 percent turnout for senate elections. “When the terrorist attacks variable was set at its minimum level (0 attacks) expected voter turnout was 28% for gubernatorial elections and 30% for senatorial elections,” Hunter said. “However, expected voter turnout increased to 43% for gubernatorial elections and 44% for senatorial elections as the number of terrorist attacks increased to its maximum level (80). Hunter attributed these findings to the notion that more severe terrorist attacks tend to have a greater psychological impact on citizens. That impact, he theorized, leads citizens of affected areas to pay greater attention to their political environment and encourages them to vote in greater numbers. “In other words, terrorism makes politics more salient for citizens,” he said. “As they become more attuned to the politics of the day, they are more likely to turnout to vote.” The data, which looked at elections held from 1970 to 2012, found that the type of election did not lessen or increase voter turnout following a terrorist attack. Voters in affected areas turned out in greater numbers for both midterm and presidential elections. Voter turnout is typically higher in presidential elections, regardless of attacks. Contact Nick Garrett at (706) 993-6411 or ngarret1@augusta.edu to schedule an interview with Dr. Hunter on this topic.
U.S. economy to remain strong through most of 2019, with output averaging 3 percent
Higher than expected economic growth in 2018 should continue into next year, with U.S. output averaging 3 percent and continued strong gains in domestic job growth. Indiana will continue to outperform the nation, with output growing at a rate of 3.2 percent, according to a forecast presented today by Indiana University's Kelley School of Business. A year ago, members of Kelley's Indiana Business Outlook Tour panel predicted that U.S. gross domestic product would grow by 2.6 percent this year and about 3 percent if tax reform were enacted. Indiana was forecast to see growth of 2.8 percent. Friday's release of GDP data for the third quarter supports their view that 2018 should end up with output growth above those levels. "The tax cut has produced an acceleration in the U.S. economy during 2018 to well above the new normal status quo of 2 percent growth," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "We expect output growth in 2019 to average 3 percent, but with deceleration as the year proceeds. By this time next year, quarterly growth will be heading toward equilibrium growth at a little below 2.5 percent." The story in Indiana and the greater Indianapolis area is very similar. "The state economy appears poised to see its strongest growth in the first quarter of 2019, after which growth rates are expected to slow but remain strong through the end of the year," said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. "It is most likely Indiana will continue to experience growth across the board -- in jobs, numbers of establishments, income levels, wages as well as gross state product." The Kelley School released its forecast this morning at the Indianapolis Artsgarden and will present it again at 11 a.m. today in Bloomington. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in eight other cities across the state through Nov. 28. The national labor market has exceeded expectations for two years now. A year ago, the panel felt the U.S. economy would create jobs at a monthly rate of about 175,000 and that the unemployment rate would fall to 4 percent. Instead, monthly job creation through September has averaged nearly 200,000, and the jobless rate has fallen to 3.7 percent. These job creation trends are expected to continue into 2019, with average monthly job gains of 200,000, and the participation rate -- which measures the percentage of the U.S. population that was employed or looking for a job -- remaining flat. "The labor market will be increasingly tight," Witte said. "The unemployment rate could decline a little, but firms unable to find workers will remain an important theme." Risks to the forecast include the effects of political uncertainty, further trade disputes and economic concerns being felt in other parts of the world, including China and Europe. The panel also expressed reservations about the impact of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. They expect the federal funds rate to rise above 3 percent by the end of 2019. Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics and author of the forecast for an 11-county area that includes Indianapolis, Carmel and Anderson, said the region is at full employment, and continued job growth will ensure it stays there. Economic growth in the area will average about 2.5 percent. "Communities around Central Indiana are finding it necessary and important to invest in projects that improve quality of life and provide amenities for residents," Anderson said, referring to examples of this in downtown areas of Indianapolis and Speedway and in Carmel. "The message to community leaders is clear: Investing in infrastructure to improve quality of life is necessary to maintain a healthy local economy. "Tax incentives are not sufficient to draw in businesses and residents. Bike trails, community centers and connected neighborhoods were once seen as luxuries, but now are important economic development tools," he added. "This trend will continue, especially if the economic expansion continues nationally." Other highlights from today's forecast: · Consumer spending will continue to grow, although at a rate less than in 2018. · Business investment will be good, but held back by trade concerns. · Housing will resume growth with a small boost from the aftermath of hurricanes Florence and Michael. Elsewhere, including in Central Indiana, 30-year mortgage rates, nearly a full point higher than a year ago, could dampen enthusiasm for new housing and constrain prices. · Government spending will be strong early in the year, but growth could slow significantly toward year end. · The trade balance will show increasing deficits. A detailed report on the outlook for 2018 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. For more assistance, contact George Vlahakis, associate director of communications and media relations at the IU Kelley School of Business, 812-855-0846 (o) or 812-345-1500 (m), vlahakis@iu.edu.
How the Migration Caravan became so large?
Edith Cruz was sitting at home in central Honduras, scanning Facebook on her phone, when she saw the post about the caravan on a community news page. It was Oct. 12. She and her cousin had just opened a small business selling tortillas when they were confronted by a gang, threatened with death if they didn’t hand over half of their profits. She looked at the Facebook post: “An avalanche of Hondurans is preparing to leave in a caravan to the United States. Share this!” Within three hours, her bags were packed. The question of how the migrant caravan began has wound its way to the American midterm elections. President Trump and other Republicans have suggested that Democrats paid migrants to begin the journey. As the group continues to grow, the largest such caravan in recent years, its beginnings are being scrutinized: How did more than 5,000 migrants from across Central America find each other? As the caravan continues to move toward the United States, Dr. Glen Duerr, associate professor of international studies at Cedarville University, has been following the situation and can provide insight into the caravan and its impact on our election and country, in general.
Professor McCarthy presents latest research at Groceryshop Conference
eMeals offers significant financial sustainability advantages over meal kit companies like Blue Apron according to a study presented this week at GroceryShop by Dan McCarthy, Assistant Professor of Marketing at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School. view more
