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The Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Due Today: Is Inflation Creeping Back Up? | Media Advisory
Recent economic indicators suggest a worrying trend: inflation may be on the rise again. This media alert calls on journalists to investigate the underlying causes of this potential uptick, its implications for consumers, businesses, and policymakers, and the measures being taken to mitigate its impact. The discussion will span from the basics of inflationary pressure to the real-world effects on the cost of living and economic stability. Key areas of interest include: Drivers of Inflation: Identifying the economic factors contributing to the increase. Impact on the Average Consumer: How rising prices affect daily life and purchasing power. Government and Central Bank Responses: Policies and actions to curb inflation and protect the economy. Global Inflation Trends: Comparing the situation with inflationary trends in other countries. Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions: The financial markets' response to inflation fears. Long-Term Economic Outlook: Projections for the economy in light of potential inflationary pressures. For journalists seeking research or insights for their coverage on this topic, here is a select list of experts. Isabella Weber Associate Professor of Economics · University of Massachusetts Amherst John T. Harvey Professor · Texas Christian University Narayana Kocherlakota Lionel W. McKenzie Professor of Economics · University of Rochester James G. Devine Professor Emeritus of Economics · Loyola Marymount University To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com Photo by engin akyurt
Taylor Swift workshop helps fill a blank space for economics students
The University of Delaware's Kathyrn Bender developed a concept that professors could only conjure in their wildest dreams: A Taylor Swift-themed workshop that helps college students better understand data analytics through the music of the world's biggest pop star. Bender, assistant professor of economics in UD's Lerner College of Business and Economics, came up with the idea while teaching her Introduction to Microeconomics class in early October when the discussion turned to MetLife Stadium, home of the NFL’s New York Giants and Jets. “I noticed in that class there was a lot of excitement, and I had just about everybody’s attention in there, whether they were interested because of football or because of the Taylor Swift aspect. So I thought that was really cool,” Bender said. Using grant money, Bender quickly jumped on the idea and developed a Swift-themed data visualization workshop series entitled “Data Enchanted: Transforming Numbers into Knowledge.” She held three 90-minute workshops during the fall semester, which ran from late October through early December: “Ready for It,” an introduction to Stata; “You Belong with Me,” building and structuring data for analysis; and “I Knew You Were Trouble,” transforming and cleaning data for analysis. The workshops helped UD students learn to utilize Stata, a statistical software package used for data manipulation, visualization and automated reporting. They were an immediate success, as Bender received over 60 applicants, although she was limited to accepting just 32 due to space limitations. Though students don’t earn credit for completing the workshops, just a certificate, Bender said they help fill some gaps that aren’t covered in classes. “I think they’re kind of expected to learn about it, piecing it together from different classes,” Bender said. “This [workshop series] is a way for students to get introduced to thinking about data, how it’s set up, how you can create good visualizations with it … those basics before you get into the analysis.” Making the workshops Swift-themed helped students pick up concepts more easily in a fun environment. Before jumping into data sets, the students make friendship bracelets to the soundtrack of Swift's music. In one session, they pulled Spotify data and statistics to analyze the popularity of Swift’s songs. “We’ve stuck with Taylor Swift songs and albums so far,“ Bender said. “So all the data sets have been very easy for the students to understand as opposed to something that’s not as familiar for them to think about. They know what a song is, they know what the duration of a song is, those things are all very easy to understand. They’re able to practice these new data skills without having to worry about the content as much.” Due to the workshop’s immediate success, Bender is planning on expanding the program during the spring semester. She aims to hold eight workshops, the initial three and then five more, and hopes to make them available for all UD students (they were available only as an undergraduate program in the fall). Reporters who would like to write about the workshop and interview Bender can contact her directly by simply the contact button on her profile. Or, send an email to UD's media relations team.
It's going to be a busy week in America when it comes to politics. And if you're covering - we have experts who can help with any of your questions or stories. Tom Smith - Professor in the Practice of Finance - Professor Smith is an expert in labor economics, entertainment and healthcare economics, as well as real estate and urban economies. David Schweidel - Professor of Marketing - Professor Schweidel has been closely researching the impact of AI in society, especially elections. He can speak on the impact AI is expected to have in this year’s elections. Professor Schweidel also has extensive work in election marketing. He researched negative campaign advertising and if a negative tone has a positive impact on election results. Ramnath Chellappa - Professor of Information Systems & Operations Management - Professor Chellappa is available to discuss the economics of information security and privacy. He can also discuss the economics and impact of AI. Raymond Hill - Professor Emeritus Hill is available to discuss any issues on the economy related to energy. If you are looking to arrange an interview - simply click any of the listed expert's icons to set up a time today or email Kim Speece for assistance.
Ask the expert: 2024 economic outlook
Although the economy has improved since the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has been a challenge for many Americans throughout 2023 and the economy remains a top issue ahead of the 2024 election. Experts are already making predictions about interest rates, inflation and the market for next year. Antonio Doblas Madrid is an associate professor in the Department of Economics in Michigan State University’s College of Social Science. He reflects on the economy this past year and answers questions about what you can anticipate about the economy in 2024. What are a few of the most memorable economic events of 2023? The economy in 2023 reminds me of Rocky Balboa, the boxer with a strong chin from the Rocky films who, despite getting hit over and over, keeps moving forward. A year ago, the consensus prediction among investors and professional forecasters was slower growth and higher unemployment. Inflation was still above 6%, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to one of the highest rates in 40 years, and the stock market ended 2022 in the red. Many observers said a ‘soft landing’ was a pipe dream and a recession inevitable. The year 2023 brought its own set of challenges. To name a few, a debt ceiling standoff started in January and continued until May, bringing the government dizzyingly close to default and causing a ratings downgrade. In March, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank started a crisis that, had it not been contained by a historic expansion of deposit guarantees, would have spread through the system and taken down the economy. A war broke out in Gaza. A large-scale auto workers strike temporarily shut down large parts of the sector. And the economy of China, a major trading partner, decelerated. Given all this, it is remarkable how good the numbers look right now. Inflation has steadily fallen to around 3% and is now within striking distance of the 2% target. The most recent gross domestic product, or GDP, report shows a robust 3% year-on-year growth rate, the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%, and the stock market has made a roaring comeback. The numbers look stronger than those of other major advanced economies, such as the eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan or Canada. However, it is too early for a victory parade. The fight against inflation is not over, monetary policy has long and variable lags and, even in a strong economy, many people are struggling. But, thus far, it is hard to imagine a softer landing than 2023. What’s expected to happen with the economy in 2024? With the usual caveat that even the best predictions have a margin of error, professional forecasters see the economy still growing in 2024, albeit more slowly. The numbers hover around 1.5% for real GDP growth and 4% for the rate of unemployment. This paints a picture of moderate growth, and a labor market that, while no longer crushing records, is still within the range of what can be called full employment. What’s predicted to happen with inflation? Forecasters and market-based measures of expectations both predict that inflation is likely to continue falling gradually in 2024, to about 2.5%. Thus, the inflation shock that hit the economy is expected to continue fading, although it may take some time to go that last mile from 3% to 2%. The Fed also appears to be quite optimistic on inflation, given its latest forward guidance. What will happen with interest rates in the new year? The Fed expects inflation to fall quickly, so quickly, in fact, that it has started to reverse the hawkish policy of the last two years in its forward guidance. This means that, although the Fed has not lowered interest rates yet, it has started talking about the possibility of rate cuts — three of them — in 2024. With the economy still at full employment, this clearly means that the Fed is expecting inflation to continue to fall. How could the presidential election affect the economy? There is a popular belief that election uncertainty is detrimental to the economy, but we do not really see that in the GDP data. Growth rates in presidential election years are not lower than average. On average over the last few decades, there is a small negative effect on the stock market in election years, but it disappears in the 12 months following the election, regardless of which party is elected. What economic words of wisdom can you share for 2024? It seems to me that the perception of the economy is worse than the reality. So, I would recommend stepping away from the noise and looking at the data for some objective measures. As far as saving for retirement goes, I think mainstream financial advice is solid. So, listen to your financial advisor if you have one. If you don’t, that’s okay, it is not that hard. There are many free tools, like retirement calculators, to help you figure out how much to set aside monthly. Take advantage of employer-provided and tax incentives. Invest mostly in stocks when young, gradually switching to fixed income as you age. For equities, follow a passive strategy. Buy and hold index funds. Do not try to pick stocks or time the market. If you are at the fixed-income stage, you may want to open a high-interest CD to lock in a high rate before the Fed starts cutting rates again. Finally, set up your contributions automatically draw, stop thinking about money for a few months and invest instead in nonfinancial assets, like relationships and health. Looking to know more about the economic outlook for 2024 or do you want to connect with Antonio Doblas Madrid? To schedule an interview - simply contact Jack Harrison, Public Relations Coordinator today.
Estimating Adults Living with Intellectual Disabilities in America - Our Experts Look at the Numbers
A new study conducted by faculty researchers at the Institute of Public and Preventive Health at Augusta University shows the prevalence of intellectual disability (ID) in adults. But looking at childhood survey data of those with ID, conclusions can be drawn on how many adults have intellectual disability. The study was conducted by Teal Benevides, PhD, assistant professor in the Institute of Public and Preventive Health at Augusta University, Biplab Datta, PhD, assistant professor in IPPH and the Department of Health Management, Economics and Policy, Jennifer Jaremski, research associate in IPPH, and Michael McKee, PhD, associate professor at the University of Michigan. The study estimates the number of adults living with ID is .95% or 9.5 per 1,000 adults between the ages of 21 and 41. “Intellectual disability is diagnosed in childhood,” said Benevides. “It needs to be diagnosed early. It’s not something that just happens in adulthood. So relying on the estimate that’s from childhood surveys is a good start. It’s just aging estimates up based off the current population of the U.S. So I do feel pretty confident that we can base future projections off in the absence of better epidemiological evaluations of prevalence.” She added it’s important to realize a lot of people with ID are now out of high school and age out of educational services to support them at the age of 21. They may fall through the cracks during the transition to adulthood and may not be receiving the services they need. “Many adults with ID are going to require services and support. They’re likely going to require housing support, employment support and many of them are food insecure,” Benevides said. “I think policymakers at both the state and federal level need to know about this because regardless of whether or not our policymakers support Medicaid expansion, many people with ID are also going to need adequate healthcare coverage because the vast majority of people with intellectual disability are not employed.” Not just that, many of those with ID are more likely to experience disparities in housing, employment, education, poverty and more. Biplab Datta and Teal Benevides In Georgia, Benevides said there is a waitlist of 7,000 people looking for Medicaid services for adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities, and there’s just not enough resources available to assist those with ID. Another concern is that people with ID have the same life span and those who may prove care, such as parents or guardians, don’t know what will happen to their older children with ID when they aren’t around or are unable to assist them. “What alarms me is we don’t have sufficient services and supports for adults. We just don’t have them,” she said. “When people ask for services, support and resources, there’s no place to point them to unless they are children.” Biplab Datta, PhD, is an assistant professor in Institute of Public and Preventive Health and in the Department of Population Health Sciences at Augusta University. Teal Benevides, PhD, OTR/L is an associate professor and the Director of Faculty Development, Institute of Public and Preventive Health Both experts are available to speak about this important research - simply click on either expert's icon to arrange an interview and time to talk today.
A 'super' economic boost for the big game, courtesy of Taylor Swift
Could NFL executives have imagined a better scenario for this year’s Super Bowl? Only in their wildest dreams, according to UD sports marketing experts who study the big game every year. The league has a built-in audience draw and revenue generator named Taylor Swift, who will be in attendance Sunday to root on boyfriend Travis Kelce and his Kansas City Chiefs. The world’s biggest pop star can easily fill any blank space – and then some – caused by a lack of bad blood between the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers or advertisements that don’t exude enough style. And the NFL didn’t have to spend a dime or lift a finger to make it happen. Timothy DeSchriver and John Allgood, who teach and study sports marketing at the University of Delaware’s Alfred Lerner College of Business and Economics, see a number of ways that Swift can move the needle economically for a league that seemingly needs no extra publicity. The female audience is already growing for the NFL, but Allgood said that Swift delivers “a fresher audience” as witnessed by record viewership for the Chiefs-Ravens AFC Championship Game. “There are people tuning in just to see her in a suite for five seconds,” Allgood said. Gamblers wagering on Taylor Swift “prop bets” will keep tuning in even if it’s a blowout, DeSchriver noted. DeSchriver pointed to new advertiser interest from makers of beauty products, potentially to reach the new audience. The NFL will get its cut from products as well, Allgood said, thanks to an NFL licensing deal with a clothing designer after Swift wore one of her puffer coats and the continued rise in sales of Kelce jerseys. DeSchriver and Allgood, who can also discuss ticket pricing in the playoffs, and are available for interviews. To set one up, visit DeSchriver's profile and click on the "contact" button.
The annual Healthy Georgia Report has been released by Augusta University’s Institute of Public and Preventive Health and it gives a snapshot of how Georgians stack up against not only neighboring states, but the country when it comes to a variety of health topics. This year’s report has added information on adult dental health, poor mental health, skin cancer and overdose deaths. Information on HIV risk behaviors, breast cancer screenings and colon cancer screenings have also returned. The report has been delivered to lawmakers, community leaders and researchers in Georgia to provide them with tangible figures on how Georgia is faring in numerous topics. The goal is to stimulate conversations about public health needs and, in turn, promote action, such as policy changes, greater community engagement and the appraisal of funds. Biplab Datta, PhD, assistant professor in the IPPH and the Department of Health Management, Economics and Policy, has collaborated with other IPPH faculty and staff to update the report. Datta has seen the impact this can have with state leaders. “They have a good appetite for data driven policy changes. I think this report actually helps them in that direction,” said Datta. “We tried to present data in a way that policy makers may find helpful in deciding on appropriate policy choices.” Overdose deaths is one of the new categories this year and is a hot topic nationwide. The report shows Georgia has the sixth lowest rate of overdose deaths in the country. Datta said that’s good, but the number is trending upwards and now should be the time to take steps to prevent it from getting worse. “We cannot be satisfied. We are doing a good job but need to be on our toes to prevent it from further ascending,” Datta said. Another category that Georgia is trending in a good direction is cigarette smoking. But the opposite is true for the obesity rate in the Peach State. The data shows Georgia has the 14th highest rate of obesity in all of the U.S. and the number is on the rise. The data also shows it’s related to household income and education. Adults who are below the federal poverty line and without a college degree are significantly more likely to be obese. Also, those in the 18-to-49 age group have a high rate of obesity compared to the national and regional average. “That is problematic because if someone is developing some cardiometabolic conditions in this age group, they will be at high risk for adverse cardiovascular events at an older age. So we need to focus on food habits, physical exercise, and other health promoting behaviors to prevent and control obesity,” Datta said. Another interesting topic is those in Georgia who have health insurance coverage. While coverage in adults is second lowest in the nation, there is a slight uptick in the number of people who have coverage from the past few years. The number is much better for children with health insurance. He points out that many state programs like PeachCare for Kids may account for the differences. Datta said one topic that definitely needs to be investigated more is cancer rates. He said we observe a low prevalence rate, despite the common perception and other data sources suggest a relatively higher incidence rate of cancer in Georgia. He believes we may be seeing lower survival rates that are not included in the survey. “I think we need more investigation into this particular issue,” said Datta. “Why are we seeing so low numbers of cancer prevalence when we know that cancer incidence rates are very high in Georgia?” The Healthy Georgia Report is the only report of its kind in the state Looking to know more or connect with Biplab Dhatta? Then let us help. Biplab is available to speak with media regarding this important topic. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
#Expert Insight: Here’s what can happen when dollar stores move in
Dollar stores - they're everywhere and on of America's fastest growing retail options. From the outside looking in, the idea of dollar stores seem like a win/win all around -- cheaper food, cheaper toys, and just about cheaper everything on offer to consumers looking to save money. However, recent research by UConn Professor Rigoberto Lopez might be pulling back the curtain on the bad deal these new outlets are selling to consumers and communities. Dollar stores have proliferated in recent years, and a study by a University of Connecticut economist has found that they contribute to less healthful food choices in the neighborhoods where they open. That’s because independent grocery stores tend to close in the same areas where the dollar stores open, according to professor Rigoberto Lopez, whose research focuses on agricultural economics. “The dollar store expanding is the fastest-growing retail format, and we also have seen a lot of family, independently owned grocery stores going out of business,” Lopez said. “So we try to link the two and to find not just a statistical correlation, but also we find that indeed when the dollar store comes to the neighborhood these stores tend to go out of business as well.” The low-priced dollar store — primarily Dollar General, Family Dollar and its subsidiary, Dollar Tree — “is the most successful type of format that is proliferating all across the United States, especially in rural areas and food deserts, which are the more underserved areas,” Lopez said. According to the study, published in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, there were 35,000 dollar stores in the United States in 2019 and they were “among the few food retailers” that grew in revenue after the Great Recession of 2008-10, outperforming big box discounters and retail clubs. Between 2000 and 2019, dollar stores opening in a neighborhood resulted in a 5.7% drop in independent grocery store sales, a 3.7% decrease in employment and a 2.3% increase in the likelihood of the grocery stores closing, according to the research. The effects are three times more likely in rural than urban areas, the study found. The dollar stores tend not to offer fresh produce and meats, with foodstuffs being limited to canned and boxed goods. “In general they provide an unhealthier food assortment … and less services,” Lopez said. “They don’t have bakery, butchers, they don’t have a lot of these.” The article also discusses not just the economic aspects, but public health implications as well. Lopez said the dollar stores’ business model is “low prices, low cost, low quality. … But a lot of the food that they sell is not healthy. It’s processed foods that they can store. Keeping fresh food and vegetables costs money.” Dollar stores are not necessarily a negative, if there was not a grocery store in the area before, Lopez said. “Public health advocates, they’re against dollar stores, but a lot of people that visit the dollar store, they prefer to have a dollar store than not to have anything at all in some areas. … But in general … we find if they are driving some of the local businesses out, then that is the negative trend.” Food insecurity and the changing landscape of grocery stores are important topics, and if you have questions or are looking to cover, then let us help. Rigoberto Lopez is the DelFavero Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Connecticut's College of Agriculture, Health and Natural Resources Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. He is an expert in food systems, marketing, industrial organization, and public policy. Simply click on his icon now to arrange a time to talk today.
Expert Perspective: Augusta University professor gives annual economic outlook for the region
For the 16th year, Augusta University’s Cree-Walker Chair and Professor of Economics in the Hull College of Business Simon Medcalfe, PhD, has given his analysis of the Augusta area economy. The biggest thing on the minds of many remains the possibility of a recession and the overall inflation nationwide. Medcalfe thinks it probably won’t look a lot different in 2024 as it did in 2023. If anything, there may be less of a chance of a recession. “I think the chances of recession have probably slipped a little. I think there’s less chance of a recession,” said Medcalfe. “Inflation is certainly still a concern. It’s running at 3.2%, which sounds kind of low, but because of the amount of inflation, we’ve had prices about 20% higher than two years ago, and it’s still a concern and still eating into people’s wages.” He indicated, looking at Google Trends and what people are searching, inflation is still a pretty high concern. As for the Augusta region, Medcalfe pointed out that Columbia County continues to see a population increase and will likely have the largest population in the area by the end of the decade on current trends. As you would expect, as the population grows, so too does the number of businesses. Looking at the different sectors of employment in the region, he said things haven’t really changed. The only sectors that have seen more than a 2% change in the share of total employment over the last 20 years are education and health services. Medcalfe also pointed out that the manufacturing industry has seen a sizable increase since 2014. He said it was the same time the Starbucks manufacturing facility arrived in South Augusta but didn’t say that was the exact reason for the increase, just a point of reference for the manufacturing industry increased ever since. “Manufacturing has showed a large increase over the last ten years or so, past post-COVID as well. So now manufacturing employment in the local area is at the highest it’s been since I’ve been here,” Medcafe said. Some research that Hull College is undertaking is the intersection of health care and business. He said it’s important to the economy in our region since Richmond, McDuffie and Burke counties all rank towards the bottom of county health rankings in Georgia. “One of the things we are looking at here in the business school and in the new School of Public Health is what are the factors that influence the population’s health but aren’t clinical? There’s a lot of things that impact people’s health. There’s socio-economic status, there’s the environment they live in, there’s education, there’s health behavior and all this kind of stuff. “About 25% of the research out of Hull College is now looking at health maps because it’s important. Not just the health of the population, but it then impacts the economy because we have a labor shortage and how much of that labor shortage is actually because some people can’t work,” said Medcalfe. Looking to know more? We can help. Simon Medcalfe, PhD, is a highly regarded economics expert in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University. Medcalfe is an expert that can talk on the national economy, as well as Georgia. He is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
Holiday Season is Almost Here and Goizueta Business School has Holiday Experts Ready to Help
The holidays are the difference between operating in the red and operating in the black for many retail businesses. The Goizueta Business School has experts who can provide insight and expertise on a wide range of stories. Economics of the Holiday Season - Economist Tom Smith can discuss seasonal hiring, retail expectations, and the importance of the holiday season to retailers. Black Friday - Doug Bowman can discuss retail expectations and the importance of the holiday season to retailers. He expects this year shoppers will go to fewer stores and not travel long distances, delivery capacity will be an issue, and work from home/school purchases will be hot. AI Changing How We Shop - David Schweidel can discuss how new AI tools are changing how we shop and how brands are using AI to reach prospective customers. Product Reviews See Huge Increases: How Reviews Impact Holiday Shopping - What do reviews mean for the shopping experience and do reviews impact purchase? Reshma Shah can discuss the impact reviews have on the point of purchase. Product Returns - Marat Ibragimov can discuss the retail strategy and impact of holiday gift returns, comparing online returns to brick and mortar. Food and Travel Pricing - Saloni Firasta Vastani can discuss the cost of this year’s holiday dinners. What’s gone up and what’s gone down? She can also discuss the cost of travel this holiday season and what consumers can do to get a better deal. Avoiding Holiday Overspend - Rohan Ganduri can discuss how holiday shopping can expose consumers to credit products like store credit cards that offer various incentives to take up the credit card, often resulting in overspending. Ganduri can discuss his latest research paper on how taking up store credit cards can impact consumers’ future credit outcomes. Social Media & Advertising - David Schweidel can discuss how micro influencers work, how using product placement can cut through the advertising clutter, and the power of product reviews. The Constantly Changing Online Retail Experience - Styling videos, personal shoppers, messaging, and even Augmented Reality (AR) are being used to generate purchases. Doug Bowman can discuss how stores are reimagining the shopping experience to attract customers in person and online. Influencers Influencing Our Purchases - How are creators impacting the economy and are influencers impacting our purchasing decisions? Marina Cooley looks at the creator economy and how TikTok and Instagram are impacting our holiday wish lists and what it takes for a product to go from unknown to trending. She can also discuss how this holiday season will help normalize in-app TikTok shopping (something Instagram has struggled to execute on). How to Attract Customers to the Store this Holiday: Merging Online and In-person Experiences May be the Answer - Shopping looks different and it is up to retailers to stand out not just in the brick and mortar world but also online. The success of a business can balance on the customer experience. Reshma Shah can discuss the policies brick and mortar retailers need to have in place to successfully merge online shopping and the in-person shopping experience. To book your expert interview, call Kim Speece at (404) 849-6579 or email her at kim@leffassociates.com or simply click on the icon available. To find an expert on a specific topic, click the “Search” feature at https://goizueta.emory.edu/faculty/profiles. To check out other recent research, visit https://www.emorybusiness.com/faculty-research/.
