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The three-way tug-of war between China, Canada and the United States

It’s a court trial in coastal Vancouver Canada that has gathered the attention of international media and plunged trade talks and international relations between America, China and America into tension, tariffs and a tug-of-war over one Chinese executive accused of fraud in in the United States. Here’s brief background courtesy of BBC: The Story in 100 Words Why is the US targeting Huawei, one of the world's largest smartphone makers, and executive Meng Wanzhou? Authorities claim they misled the US government about the company's business in Iran, which is under US economic sanctions. The US is also pursuing Huawei and Ms Meng in criminal charges including bank fraud and theft of technology. Both reject the claims. US officials want Ms Meng extradited from Canada to face the charges. Her arrest caused a diplomatic dispute between China and the US and Canada. The case against Huawei also comes as Western nations grow increasingly concerned about a possible spying risk related to the widespread adoption of the company's technology. So, is there any diplomatic resolution? What will happen if Meng Wanzhou is extradited to the United States? What will happen if she can return to China? Is Canada in a no - win situation? There are a lot of questions – and that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Glen Duerr's research interests include comparative politics, and international relations theory. Glen is available to speak to media regarding this topic– simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

U.S. economy continues to expand, but at a slower pace, reaching about 2 percent growth in 2020

INDIANAPOLIS -- The U.S. economy will continue to expand for a 12th consecutive year in 2020, but by only about 2 percent and struggling to remain at that level by year's end. Indiana's economic output will be more anemic, growing at a rate of about 1.25 percent, according to a forecast released today by the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. Over the past year, political dysfunction and international trade friction have disrupted supply chains and eroded both consumer and business confidence. U.S. employment has grown during 2019 but will decelerate throughout 2020, well short of 150,000 jobs per month and possibly to about 100,000 by year's end. A tight labor market will continue to be an issue for many companies.   "The total number of job openings in the economy peaked in late 2018," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "Average hours worked have been flat over the past year, and auto sales have been flat for nearly two years. Given the reliance of the U.S. economy on consumer spending, these are disturbing signs. But they are vague signs, and not enough to convince us that the end of the expansion is in sight.   "We expect that growth will be weaker than in the past two years, and this outlook is likely a best-case outcome," he added. "There is massive uncertainty in the current situation."   The Kelley School presented its forecast this morning to Indianapolis community and business leaders at IUPUI. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in seven other cities across the state through Nov. 20.   Indiana's more meager economic growth expected in 2020 can largely be attributed to the outsized presence of manufacturing and particularly tight labor markets, said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. Manufacturing contracts more rapidly versus other areas of the economy, and tight labor markets limit employers' capacity to grow, he said.  Expectations about business investment have fallen short, and corporations have been buying back stock instead of making capital investments. The trade war with China and slowing global expansion have also affected state manufacturers.  The world is about to record its slowest economic growth since the financial crisis of 2009. Next year, global growth is projected at 3.4 percent, with downside risks continuing to build. China and the European Union each face structural issues amid tariffs imposed by the United States. Brexit remains unresolved.   Recent data from the Institute for Supply Management showed that manufacturing activity has slowed to its lowest rate since the beginning of the Great Recession. Indiana has sought to diversify its economy in recent decades, but manufacturing output represents nearly 28 percent of gross state product. Indiana continues to lead the nation in manufacturing employment, with more than 17 percent of its jobs in that sector.   "Constrained by a historically tight labor market, Indiana is expected to experience slow growth in jobs and gross output, along with the possibility for continued rising wages," Brewer said. "With fewer and fewer available people to hire, tightness of the Indiana labor markets will serve as a drag to output and employment growth."   The outlook for the Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson metropolitan statistical area is slightly better, with expected growth between 1.5 and 2 percent.   "Indianapolis continues to draw in talent and investment that should help it exceed the overall state level of growth," said Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics. "However, there is risk that weakness in the broader economy, and especially weakness in manufacturing, could make this forecast too optimistic."   Other highlights from the forecast:   The national and state unemployment rates will hold steady. The nation's rate could be below 4 percent by year's end, and the state will stay at or below full employment through 2020.  Inflation will rise and end 2020 close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The stock market will struggle to get average returns with headwinds from trade, supply chain disruption and policy uncertainty. Earnings continue to exceed expectations, yet lack of definitive trade consensus continues to drive headwinds. Interest rates will remain low. The 10-year Treasury rate should stay below 2 percent and mortgages below 4 percent. Speculative grade bond yields have been rising, indicating increased risk of insolvency for marginal firms. Entry-level wage growth could cause costs to rise, earnings to fall and growth to stagnate for firms heading into 2020. Energy prices will be relatively stable, with average prices similar to those in 2019. Business investment will remain weak, although a little improved from this year. Housing will achieve a meager increase, ending two years of negative growth. Government spending will grow, but much more slowly than the past year, as the impact of the 2018 budget deal ends. The starting point for the forecast is an econometric model of the United States, developed by IU's Center for Econometric Model Research, which analyzes numerous statistics to develop a national forecast for the coming year. A similar econometric model of Indiana provides a corresponding forecast for the state economy based on the national forecast plus data specific to Indiana. A select panel of Kelley faculty members, led by Indiana Business Research Center co-director Timothy Slaper, then adjusts the forecast to reflect additional insights it has on the economic situation.   A detailed report on the outlook for 2020 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. In addition to predictions about the nation, state and Indianapolis, it also will include forecasts for other Indiana cities and key economic sectors. Presenting the forecast at the Indianapolis Business Outlook Tour event were Phil T. Powell, associate dean of Kelley academic programs at Indianapolis and clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy; Cathy Bonser-Neal, associate professor of finance; and Anderson.

Is the bubble bursting – and does America need to prepare for an economic slowdown?

With every news story about trade, tariffs, interest rates, global instability and political chaos…comes with it a hint that each incident could take a toll on America’s economy. And it seems that sub-plot may be slowly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy for the current administration in Washington. A recent article in Forbes pointed out that most key indicators seem to be pointing down. Trump’s monthly job results are decelerating Trump’s job growth falling short of Obama’s last six years Wage growth is the lowest in a year September quarter GDPNow forecast lower than June’s 2.0% result It seems as if all of these ingredients combined, a slow down and potential recession or worse could be looming. Are you a journalist covering the short and long-term outlook of America’s economy? If so, let our experts help with your stories and coverage. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

What will the “new” NAFTA mean for business in Canada?

The "new" NAFTA - officially renamed as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in Canada, but is referred to as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in the media - could be a benefit for businesses. While tariffs are being lifted and reduced trade talks thaw – it appears that the USMCA is a win/win/win for businesses on every side of the border. The new trade accord has free-trade when it comes to manufacturing, importing, exporting and resourcing. The USMCA sounds great, but will those rays reach areas like Northeastern Ontario? Will our resource and mining industries benefit? Also, what about our emerging technology sector? There is a lot to be figured out as this new trade deal goes through the approval process in Canada and America. Luckily, we have experts who can help! Marc Boivin, Manager at Freelandt Caldwell Reilly LLP, is an expert in the areas of organizational finance, assets acquisition, business valuation and transactions. Contact Marc to arrange an appointment regarding this topic by clicking the contact button below. Sources:

Expert perspective on a trade war with China and how it could impact a Trump presidency

Trade negotiations between the United States and China have continued to deteriorate over the last few weeks. In efforts to pressure the Chinese to make reforms to trade-related issues such as forced technology transfer and intellectual property rights, the United States has raised tariffs on nearly all Chinese exports. While there is a consensus among experts that these trade issues harm U.S. producers and must be dealt with, there is not universal agreement that a trade war is the best way to make it happen.  Who will feel the effects? It is apparent that both consumers and producers in the U.S. will feel the effects of the trade war. Producers will not be able to absorb the increased costs from the raising tariffs and will need to pass them along to consumers. Consumers will begin to see the prices increase on a host of retail goods, such as clothing and apparel, toys, and home goods.  Partners replaced? In addition, as the Chinese retaliate with increased tariffs on U.S. exports, such as agricultural goods, producers from other countries with lower tariffs are stepping in to take the place of the U.S. exporters. For example, Brazilian soybean producers are more than happy to sell their product to China at a lower cost. Once lost, it may be difficult for U.S. farmers to regain these important Chinese markets.  A political price to pay? It appears that the effects of the trade war may hit the Trump administrations base, in agricultural and manufacturing regions, disproportionately. However, the administration may see the trade war as beneficial to Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign, as Trump is being perceived as being tough with the Chinese and holding them accountable to unfair trade practices. That appears to resonate with his base. However, it remains to be seen how long his base will continue to support this approach as both producers and consumers continue to feel the economic pinch of the growing trade war with China.   There’s a lot to know about the short and long-term impacts of a trade war with China and that’s where or experts can help. Matt has taught business and marketing courses at Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota since 2008. Prior to Saint Mary’s, he worked in both the banking and the non-profit sectors, most recently with a non-governmental organization (NGO) with operations in more than a dozen countries. Matt is an expert in political and economic development and is available to speak with media. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Trump, tariffs and the long game

He said he’d get tough on China and make sure America was getting the better end of any trade deal – and President Trump seems bound and determined, despite the critics and advice from his own cabinet, that massive tariffs and a trade war with China is a good thing for America. Last week Trump more than doubled tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.  China reacted with tariffs on American agricultural and other products. The response, Trump is now looking at approximately $300 billion in import levies on more Chinese goods. As far as trade wars go, this one could be epic in its scale and economic proportions. But who will blink first, who will win and ultimately – who is paying the costs and taking on the burden of all the financial collateral damage at the end of the day? Is this a matter of short-term pain for long-term gain for America’s economy?   Or is this political posturing that will at the end of the day hurt the country’s bottom line? There are a lot of questions to be asked and that’s where two of the experts from Cedarville can help. Dr. Glen Deurr's research interests include nationalism and secessionism, comparative politics, and international relations theory. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration at Cedarville ad is an expert in finance and trade. Glen and are both available to speak to media regarding the current trade war with China – simply click on either expert’s icon to arrange an interview.

Trade wars – is America’s economy collateral damage?

There’s been a lot of tough talk on trade coming from Washington as of late. With debates and even some delusions about trade surpluses and deficits,it’s feed for the political fodder, but are the politics behind the talk negatively impacting America’s economy? President Trump says he is standing up for American jobs, but by threatening to tear up NAFTA and imposing billions in tariffs on China, is starting a street fight with America’s traditional trading partners worth it? The common folk might think so. However, those who control the markets on Wall Street think not. The DOW is down. A lot. The NASDAQ is also falling. That means a lot of money is being lost and the ripples might be felt by middle America in the form of lost jobs. So, what exactly happens in a trade war? Is America truly getting the raw deal President Trump is claiming when it comes to doing business with China, Canada, Mexico and others? What will come of all the tough talk on trade? How will it impact the economy? There are many questions and issues to consider. That’s where the experts from Missouri State University can help. Dr. David Mitchell is a professor of economics and director of the Bureau of Economic Research at Missouri State. He is also an expert in economic forecasting and understanding market trends and direction. He can address what these trade wars will do for America's economy and what, if any, effects they will have on the American people. Click on his icon to connect with him. Source:

Time to talk tariffs

Need to understand trade wars and tariffs? Goizueta's Jeff Rosensweig can explain. "These foreign nations that we're going to put these import taxes on, these tariffs, are not stupid," he tells NPR. "They're going to retaliate against our exports, and they're going to hit us where it hurts, which is often our farm exports." Source: