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Is the bubble bursting – and does America need to prepare for an economic slowdown?

With every news story about trade, tariffs, interest rates, global instability and political chaos…comes with it a hint that each incident could take a toll on America’s economy. And it seems that sub-plot may be slowly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy for the current administration in Washington. A recent article in Forbes pointed out that most key indicators seem to be pointing down. Trump’s monthly job results are decelerating Trump’s job growth falling short of Obama’s last six years Wage growth is the lowest in a year September quarter GDPNow forecast lower than June’s 2.0% result It seems as if all of these ingredients combined, a slow down and potential recession or worse could be looming. Are you a journalist covering the short and long-term outlook of America’s economy? If so, let our experts help with your stories and coverage. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Inverted yields and a potential recession – are rocky times ahead?

Everything seemed to be going swell. Unemployment was low, the number of jobs was high and the economy seemed to be roaring. Until last week. Yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted early Wednesday, a market phenomenon that shows investors want more in return for short-term government bonds than they are for long-term bonds. It's the first time that has happened since the Great Recession and it can be an indication that investors have lost faith in the soundness of the U.S. economy. - USA Today, Aug. 14, 2019 Inversions are usually the canary in the coal mine when it comes to recessions. In fact, this very same incident has occurred in the previous nine recessions since the mid-1950s. How bad will this recession be? Is there any way to reverse course? Is this simply an American issue or will it spread globally? Compared to 2008 – how bad of a situation are we in? There is a lot of speculation and questions being asked. If you are a reporter covering the economy and need an expert to help guide you through the situation and provide accurate information on the state of America’s economy – that’s where we can help. Dr. Simon Medcalfe is a highly regarded finance expert and the Cree Walker Chair in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University. Medcalfe is available to speak with media regarding the economy and its outlook – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Are Germany’s economic walls crumbling? Let our experts explain the potential consequences.

As the saying goes … where there’s smoke, there is usually fire.  And as trade wars, Brexit and overall global uncertainty crash like waves across the planet – there might be another sure sign we are headed for a global economic slowdown. Germany, the engine that runs Europe, may very well be in recession. “A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and Germany saw a 0.1% drop in the April-to-June period. In its monthly report, the Bundesbank said that with falling industrial production and orders, it appears the slump is continuing during the July-to-September quarter. “The overall economic performance could decline slightly once again,” it said. “Central to this is the ongoing downturn in industry.” Deutsche Bank went further Monday, saying “we see Germany in a technical recession” and predicting a 0.25% drop in economic output this quarter.” August 20 – Associated Press So, what will this mean for the EU, and economies far and wide? Do Americans need to be concerned? Is this just a stumble or is the world about to fall into another economic collapse? If you are a reporter covering the economy and need an expert for your stories – let us help. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

The World Needs More MBAs! Let an expert from WGU explain how partnerships can make it work.

Recently, much talk has centered on the closing of business school programs, and the extreme debt that many students take on to achieve a business degree. New data from Bloomberg Businessweek reported that nearly half of students polled from 126 universities across the world finance $100,000 or more for their MBAs. “Bloomberg Businessweek surveyed more than 10,000 2018 graduates of MBA programs from 126 schools about the amount of debt they piled on earning their degrees. The survey found that almost half of students at leading business schools around the world borrowed at least $100,000 to finance their MBA. According to the survey, at minimum 40% of MBA graduates from U.S. News & World Report’s top-ranking business programs — those at Duke, Dartmouth, University of Michigan, Cornell and University of Chicago — reported incurring at least $100,000 in debt.” July 09 – CNBC MBAs have been widely accepted by employers, and the return on investment for students has historically been high. Over the years, business programs have adapted to the needs of employers, and the basic design of the MBA, combining a broad scope of valuable business skills, has remained relevant despite massive changes in the business world. But with the rise of tuition costs, rapid changes in technology, and a higher value being placed on specialization, the long-standing value proposition of the MBA is changing. Cost, flexibility of delivery and open-loop, customized micro-learning are more likely to meet the needs of students and employers going forward. At WGU, we live and breathe the mission of supporting student academic success and expanding opportunities with affordable, valuable and relevant degree programs. Collaborations with companies which are equally committed to provide their employees the opportunity to sharpen their skills, advance in their careers, and better their lives, are one step in this evolution of business education. An evolution not in the future, it’s here.  Dr. Rashmi Prasad is Dean and Academic Vice President of Western Governors University's College of Business.  Dr. Prasad is available to speak with media regarding the need for higher education and how partnerships will bolster MBA programs and help graduates find success after they leave school – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Is the bubble bursting? Let an expert from WGU explain if it is time to worry about a looming recession.

It was a train running full speed and showed no signs of stopping – but America’s economy hit a bump last week and it sent a lot of people from Wall Street and beyond into a panic. The 800-point drop in the Dow Jones seemed to be the first sign of another severe recession. But before everyone cashes out, experts from Western Governors University are hoping we take a look back through the ages before rushing to worry. “What does history teach us? Even before the Great Depression of the 1930s, Nicolai Kondratieff discovered that the capitalist economy, going back to the 18th century was characterized by waves, or business cycles,” says Dr. Rashmi Prasad, Dean and Academic Vice President of Western Governors University's College of Business. “The Federal Reserve, under leadership of Ben Bernanke, claimed that while the business cycle had not been repealed, a ‘Great Moderation’ had emerged in the world post-1982. Independent central banking and the rise of the service economy were among the reasons cited. In a great irony of history, Bernanke was front and center as Chairman of the Federal Reserve during the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008-2009. Business cycles seem to be inevitable for capitalist economies. Will we return to the Great Moderation of 1982-2007, or are we in a new period of regular Great Recessions? Central Banks stabilize and soften the down-cycles of recessions, but the price of managing the Great Recession of 2008-09 has been the dramatic expansion of central bank balance sheets–no new investment cycles–property or finance often leads to recession.” So, where do we stand and what can we expect in the short-term? Prasad adds this perspective: “Conventional economic thinking indicated inflation by now, which may have added to interest rates and constrained the amount of debt that was sustainable. Rapidly rising interest rates posed the risk of a deep and extended downturn. If interest rates can be managed and kept low, then the next down-cycle could be shallowed and prolonged as monetary policy has little scope and fiscal deficits are already very high. Risks for a major downturn exist in extremely high debt levels and central bank balance sheets, but still may be a decade or two away, awaiting triggers that we cannot yet predict.” Are you a journalist covering the economy and do you need expert perspective and opinion for your stories? That’s where Western Governor’s University can help. Dr. Rashmi Prasad is Dean and Academic Vice President of Western Governors University's College of Business. He is an expert in the fields of economic and financial data and business analytics. Dr. Prasad is available to speak with media regarding the state of America’s economy – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Full speed ahead or time to pump the breaks when it comes to investing in ride-share companies?

There’s been a lot of talk and even some screaming from early investors about the state of ride-share stocks like Uber and Lyft. Since its IPO, Uber has been a rollercoaster ride for those who got in early. “When Uber stock (UBER) went public on May 10, it looked like a disaster. At minimum, underwriters look for a stock to close slightly above its offering price. Uber’s shares dropped 7.6% to $41.60 in the first day of trading and closed well below the offering price of $45. But a funny thing has happened since. After closing down as much as 18% from its IPO price, Uber stock has rallied 21% to close at $44.92 per share on Thursday. The stock eclipsed the IPO price during intraday trading for the first time on Wednesday and closed at exactly $45 that day.” June 07 – Barron’s But let’s be honest, unless you’ve got a crystal ball or a time machine – any stock is a gamble. How the market reacts, how the company performs and even how CEOs behave can dictate big gains or drastic falls. Steve Jones is a Professor of Finance at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business – he lent his perspective to the topic. “As far as which stocks to buy, there are never right or wrong answers – It’s just a question of a person being able to assess risk or potential returns. The IPO prices indicate the market has discounted Uber and Lyft stocks and sees them as riskier than originally perceived to be. Now, they do offer potential for a good return… For example, Facebook stocks dropped then rebounded… Google dropped then rebounded. Lots of stocks that have not done well at first have come back. Will that be these two? "I think there’s potential for it. On the other hand, we have this situation where analysts are critical of the business models of both these companies. It’s not clear Uber drivers are going to sign up to do this in the long run at these kind of wages, and if they can’t underpay drivers, how do they make money? There is a criticism going on of the business model here, and if this model can become profitable, I think the stocks will take off. It’s questionable though, whether that’s possible or not. That’s what the market is going back and forth on right now.” Are you covering the track Uber investors are on, other IPO’s or companies that are disrupting not just the marketplace but also the stock market?  Then let our experts help with your stories. Steve L. Jones is an expert in the areas of asset valuation, corporate finance, financial markets, and investment management. He’s available to speak with media regarding these topics – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

What will a ban on single-use plastic mean for small businesses in Canada?

Being environmentally friendly has become a popular trend. Climate change is occurring, and news stories of wasteful plastics clogging our waterways are becoming more frequent, making the battle against plastic waste an election issue. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Trudeau announced a ban on single-use plastics by 2021 that will likely include straws, plastic cups, food wrapping and grocery bags. It's evident, being environmentally friendly is in everyone's best interest, but business owners are concerned about what costs will arise as a result. Companies use plastics cups, lids and straws for take-out, plastic wrap as a significant part in food safety and freshness, and plastic bags for clients to transport purchases home. Even though these plastics are environmentally harming, some still see them as essential. There are more than 1.1 million small businesses in Canada, and most of them will have to adapt or adjust to: How will this impact their bottom-line? How slim are the margins already for most small retailers? Are incentives for businesses required before implementing this new policy? These are some of the critical questions to ask. If your small business will be affected, contact one of our experts to help. James Brutto, Manager at Freelandt Caldwell Reilly LLP, is an expert in the areas of accounting, auditing, finance and entrepreneurship. Contact James to arrange an appointment regarding this topic by clicking the contact button below. Sources:

Up, Down or Steady – What do Interest Rates Really Mean for Our Economy?

The heat was on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week to lower interest rates coming out of the June meetings of the Fed. He was under scrutiny from President Trump and others who share a growing worry that America’s economy could be slowing down and potentially turning toward recession.  An option that is neither appetizing for investors, the business community or politicians looking for positive messaging as an election looms in 2020. Powell held the rates steady but there is massive speculation this will be for the last time and that rates will begin to be cut as of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve. There are a lot of questions about interest rates and the economy: How do rates encourage or dissuade investment and business? How much of a rate cut will it take to impact the economy? Do interest rates and the dollar go up and down in tandem? And how independent is the Fed and who influences these decisions? If you are covering, we can help. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Bert Wheeler, Ph.D. specializes in macroeconomics, international trade, economic development, and econometrics. Jeff and Bert are both available to speak to media regarding the current trade war with China – simply click on either expert’s icon to arrange an interview.

Why it just makes ‘cents’ to know your financial ABCs early in life – let our expert explain.

Managing money, understanding interest and how to avoid debt – all these elements make up some of the very basics of financial literacy.  However, despite a humming economy and record low unemployment, more and more Americans are falling deeper into debt. Just recently, CBS News reported that roughly 4 in 10 Americans can’t cover an unexpected bill of 400 dollars. Something desperately needs to be done about not just how we are handling our money – but when we are taught the how banking, money and personal finances work. It’s a topic of concern and one that is gaining traction. Showbiz moguls Will Smith and Nas invested in a financial literacy app for teens (see attached article). The issue is finally on the radar of leaders in Washington and throughout the country as well, with 19 states now requiring financial education to graduate, according to the Council for Economic Education, up from 13 in 2011. Can these efforts make a real impact and reverse the tide of financial illiteracy? How did America get to this point? Is this about our spending habits and access to credit or a lack of education? And if we don’t correct the curse – what could it mean for our economy? There are a lot of questions and that’s where our experts can help! Professor Jonathan Clarke is an award-winning teacher and researcher in the fields of investment banking, finance and analysis. Clarke created a personal finance course that is offered to all Georgia Tech students that provides the importance of budgeting, basics of credit, as well as more advanced financial topics such as investing and trading. He’s an expert in the field and is available to speak with media about economics and the importance of financial literacy – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview. He has also developed a one-week summer course for high school students – Wall Street on West Peachtree and annually assists the Boy Scouts with obtaining their finance badge.

What will the “new” NAFTA mean for business in Canada?

The "new" NAFTA - officially renamed as the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in Canada, but is referred to as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in the media - could be a benefit for businesses. While tariffs are being lifted and reduced trade talks thaw – it appears that the USMCA is a win/win/win for businesses on every side of the border. The new trade accord has free-trade when it comes to manufacturing, importing, exporting and resourcing. The USMCA sounds great, but will those rays reach areas like Northeastern Ontario? Will our resource and mining industries benefit? Also, what about our emerging technology sector? There is a lot to be figured out as this new trade deal goes through the approval process in Canada and America. Luckily, we have experts who can help! Marc Boivin, Manager at Freelandt Caldwell Reilly LLP, is an expert in the areas of organizational finance, assets acquisition, business valuation and transactions. Contact Marc to arrange an appointment regarding this topic by clicking the contact button below. Sources: