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Are Germany’s economic walls crumbling? Let our experts explain the potential consequences.

As the saying goes … where there’s smoke, there is usually fire.  And as trade wars, Brexit and overall global uncertainty crash like waves across the planet – there might be another sure sign we are headed for a global economic slowdown. Germany, the engine that runs Europe, may very well be in recession. “A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and Germany saw a 0.1% drop in the April-to-June period. In its monthly report, the Bundesbank said that with falling industrial production and orders, it appears the slump is continuing during the July-to-September quarter. “The overall economic performance could decline slightly once again,” it said. “Central to this is the ongoing downturn in industry.” Deutsche Bank went further Monday, saying “we see Germany in a technical recession” and predicting a 0.25% drop in economic output this quarter.” August 20 – Associated Press So, what will this mean for the EU, and economies far and wide? Do Americans need to be concerned? Is this just a stumble or is the world about to fall into another economic collapse? If you are a reporter covering the economy and need an expert for your stories – let us help. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Not this time, but expect interest rates to get cut soon – our expert can explain why

It was all eyes on the Fed this week, but when it came to decide, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell held U.S. Interest rates steady and unchanged. The pressure was on to lower the rates amid serious concerns that the current trade wars and tariff action could start impacting America’s economy and slow it down. Narayana Kocherlakota, the Lionel W. McKenzie Professor of Economics at the University of Rochester wasn’t surprised by the June decision to remain steady. And with serving six years as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, his expertise and perspective indicates lower rates will come at the next meeting. “I am not expecting a change in policy, which means the interest rates should remain the same. What I am expecting is a lot of discussion, which takes place in secret, about cutting interest rates by a quarter percentage point at their next meeting in July. Why would they do that? The Federal Reserve is tasked with trying to keep inflation at 2 percent and keep unemployment low. Right now unemployment is about as low as it’s been in the past half-century, which is very good. Inflation remains lower than the Federal Reserve would like—it’s been below 2 percent for most of the last seven years. I think they’re mainly worried about risks. There are signs of risk around the world partly due to big variations in trade policy emerging from the White House. So, the Fed is thinking about cutting rates now in order to keep the economy as healthy as possible, if there’s any danger of a recession.” University of Rochester Newscenter. Will lower rates really keep America’s economy humming? Won’t lower rates impact the strong US dollar? And if we are headed toward recession, what else can de done to turn the economy around? There are a lot of questions – and that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Narayana Kocherlakota was the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009-2015. As part of his responsibilities in that position, he served on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System. He is currently a Lionel W. McKenzie Professor of Economics and is an expert in financial economics, interest rates and monetary policy. Narayana is available to speak with media regarding the economic effects of the shutdown – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Why it just makes ‘cents’ to know your financial ABCs early in life – let our expert explain.

Managing money, understanding interest and how to avoid debt – all these elements make up some of the very basics of financial literacy.  However, despite a humming economy and record low unemployment, more and more Americans are falling deeper into debt. Just recently, CBS News reported that roughly 4 in 10 Americans can’t cover an unexpected bill of 400 dollars. Something desperately needs to be done about not just how we are handling our money – but when we are taught the how banking, money and personal finances work. It’s a topic of concern and one that is gaining traction. Showbiz moguls Will Smith and Nas invested in a financial literacy app for teens (see attached article). The issue is finally on the radar of leaders in Washington and throughout the country as well, with 19 states now requiring financial education to graduate, according to the Council for Economic Education, up from 13 in 2011. Can these efforts make a real impact and reverse the tide of financial illiteracy? How did America get to this point? Is this about our spending habits and access to credit or a lack of education? And if we don’t correct the curse – what could it mean for our economy? There are a lot of questions and that’s where our experts can help! Professor Jonathan Clarke is an award-winning teacher and researcher in the fields of investment banking, finance and analysis. Clarke created a personal finance course that is offered to all Georgia Tech students that provides the importance of budgeting, basics of credit, as well as more advanced financial topics such as investing and trading. He’s an expert in the field and is available to speak with media about economics and the importance of financial literacy – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview. He has also developed a one-week summer course for high school students – Wall Street on West Peachtree and annually assists the Boy Scouts with obtaining their finance badge.

Is Wall Street hedging on a Trump win in 2020? Let our experts tell you why.

“The economy, stupid!” It’s a famous quote that Bill Clinton campaigner James Carville used in 1992. And the Ragin’ Cajun was right – odds are, when it comes to Americans casting a vote in presidential elections – the economy calls the shots on how they vote. And despite the scandals, the Tweets, the gaffes and the indictments – the economy under President Donald Trump is booming. So, while convention and traditional politics would likely write of the presidency of Donald Trump as a one term wonder - an article about a recent report commissioned by Goldman Sachs says Democrats and pundits shouldn’t be so sure to write him off. ‘In a comprehensive report released late Saturday, the investment bank gave its preliminary thoughts on a general election that’s still more than a year away. While Trump re-election is far from assured, Goldman’s economists believe the president is bolstered by “the advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance,” in what is sure to be a “close call” election.’ - Yahoo! Finance Are you covering the race for 2020? Should Democrats change their focus away from the scandals and the Mueller Report and focus on economics? If not, what are the issues that will sway undecideds next year? And what will a potential run by an Independent candidate mean for the race? There are so many storylines already at play and a long way to go before November 2020 – but the election is already daily news and that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Marc Clauson is a professor of history and law at Cedarville. Marc is an expert in the fields of political and economic philosophy Dr. Clauson is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

The Fed Should Consider Lowering Rates say the Experts from University of Rochester

On Wednesday, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will be delivering another interest rate decision that could direct or at least prompt a punch to the arm the country’s economy. In fact, according to Narayana Kocherlakota who is currently a Professor of Economics at the University of Rochester, and who also served as the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009-2015 – the Fed should be dropping rates to increase stimulus t an economy in very much in need of help. In a column (see attached) published this week in Bloomberg Opinion, Kocherlakota offered this perspective, So, the Fed has been falling short — arguably well short — of both its inflation and employment mandates for a long time. How can it do better? It should take two steps. First, as I’ve argued before, the Fed shouldn’t be reducing the vast holdings of bonds that it amassed in its efforts to stimulate the economy after the last recession. Instead, it should commit to increasing its asset holdings by about 4 percent per year. That way, as the economy grows over time, its balance sheet will remain sufficiently large to help combat any recessionary risks. Second, the Fed often says that it sets monetary policy based on the incoming economic data. Such claims ring hollow when we look at the record. Recently released transcripts from its June 2013 policy-making meeting show that more than half the participants thought inflation would be below 2 percent for the next 30 months. All thought unemployment would stay above 5.5 percent. Yet it was precisely at that meeting that they agreed to begin tightening by announcing their intention to ease off on bond purchases in the near future.” So, what can we expect from Wednesday’s decision by the Fed? Will we see a drop in rates? What will a higher interest rate look like and what would that mean for America’s economy? Or … if nothing changes and the Fed holds steady, what will that mean for the economy in the short term? There are a lot of questions and that’s where the experts from the University of Rochester are available.  Dr. Narayana Kocherlakota was the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009-2015. As part of his responsibilities in that position, he served on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System. He is currently a Lionel W. McKenzie Professor of Economics and is an expert in financial economics, interest rates and monetary policy. Narayana is available to speak with media regarding the economic effects of the shutdown – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Brexit, political rancor may cause long-term damage to British economy

Sandeep Mazumder, associate professor of economics and UK native, is available to comment by phone or email on the ongoing power struggle over control of Britain’s planned exit from the European Union. “Uncertainty abounds in the United Kingdom – both in Parliament, and with regards to Brexit. At this point, there are several outcomes that could result from Theresa May's proposed deal being voted down by the UK’s Members of Parliament," Mazumder says. "As it stands, the UK could be on course for a hard Brexit in March with no deals in place with the European Union. A lack of trade deals, in particular, will likely be very damaging to the British economy." "But, a hard Brexit is not a given either. Changes in the political set-up could open doors for other outcomes as the world waits to see what will happen,” says Mazumder. For now, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is most likely to harm markets involving British firms, he adds. Mazumder is an expert in macroeconomics, monetary policy and international finance.

U.S. economy to remain strong through most of 2019, with output averaging 3 percent

Higher than expected economic growth in 2018 should continue into next year, with U.S. output averaging 3 percent and continued strong gains in domestic job growth. Indiana will continue to outperform the nation, with output growing at a rate of 3.2 percent, according to a forecast presented today by Indiana University's Kelley School of Business. A year ago, members of Kelley's Indiana Business Outlook Tour panel predicted that U.S. gross domestic product would grow by 2.6 percent this year and about 3 percent if tax reform were enacted. Indiana was forecast to see growth of 2.8 percent. Friday's release of GDP data for the third quarter supports their view that 2018 should end up with output growth above those levels. "The tax cut has produced an acceleration in the U.S. economy during 2018 to well above the new normal status quo of 2 percent growth," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "We expect output growth in 2019 to average 3 percent, but with deceleration as the year proceeds. By this time next year, quarterly growth will be heading toward equilibrium growth at a little below 2.5 percent." The story in Indiana and the greater Indianapolis area is very similar. "The state economy appears poised to see its strongest growth in the first quarter of 2019, after which growth rates are expected to slow but remain strong through the end of the year," said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. "It is most likely Indiana will continue to experience growth across the board -- in jobs, numbers of establishments, income levels, wages as well as gross state product." The Kelley School released its forecast this morning at the Indianapolis Artsgarden and will present it again at 11 a.m. today in Bloomington. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in eight other cities across the state through Nov. 28. The national labor market has exceeded expectations for two years now. A year ago, the panel felt the U.S. economy would create jobs at a monthly rate of about 175,000 and that the unemployment rate would fall to 4 percent. Instead, monthly job creation through September has averaged nearly 200,000, and the jobless rate has fallen to 3.7 percent. These job creation trends are expected to continue into 2019, with average monthly job gains of 200,000, and the participation rate -- which measures the percentage of the U.S. population that was employed or looking for a job -- remaining flat. "The labor market will be increasingly tight," Witte said. "The unemployment rate could decline a little, but firms unable to find workers will remain an important theme." Risks to the forecast include the effects of political uncertainty, further trade disputes and economic concerns being felt in other parts of the world, including China and Europe. The panel also expressed reservations about the impact of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. They expect the federal funds rate to rise above 3 percent by the end of 2019. Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics and author of the forecast for an 11-county area that includes Indianapolis, Carmel and Anderson, said the region is at full employment, and continued job growth will ensure it stays there. Economic growth in the area will average about 2.5 percent. "Communities around Central Indiana are finding it necessary and important to invest in projects that improve quality of life and provide amenities for residents," Anderson said, referring to examples of this in downtown areas of Indianapolis and Speedway and in Carmel. "The message to community leaders is clear: Investing in infrastructure to improve quality of life is necessary to maintain a healthy local economy. "Tax incentives are not sufficient to draw in businesses and residents. Bike trails, community centers and connected neighborhoods were once seen as luxuries, but now are important economic development tools," he added. "This trend will continue, especially if the economic expansion continues nationally." Other highlights from today's forecast: ·      Consumer spending will continue to grow, although at a rate less than in 2018. ·      Business investment will be good, but held back by trade concerns. ·      Housing will resume growth with a small boost from the aftermath of hurricanes Florence and Michael. Elsewhere, including in Central Indiana, 30-year mortgage rates, nearly a full point higher than a year ago, could dampen enthusiasm for new housing and constrain prices. ·      Government spending will be strong early in the year, but growth could slow significantly toward year end.  ·      The trade balance will show increasing deficits. A detailed report on the outlook for 2018 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. For more assistance, contact George Vlahakis, associate director of communications and media relations at the IU Kelley School of Business, 812-855-0846 (o) or 812-345-1500 (m), vlahakis@iu.edu.

Out of Office: New Baylor Management Study Examines Relationship Between Stress and Remote Work

Researchers say people with high emotional stability and autonomy are best suited for remote-work opportunities Many U.S. employees believe working from home – or at least away from the office – can bring freedom and stress-free job satisfaction. A new Baylor University study says, “Not so fast.” The study, published recently in the European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, examines the impact of remote work on employee well-being and offers several strategies to help managers provide remote-work opportunities that are valuable to the employee and the company. “Any organization, regardless of the extent to which people work remotely, needs to consider well-being of their employees as they implement more flexible working practices,” the researchers wrote. A total of 403 working adults were surveyed for the two studies that made up the research, said lead author Sara Perry, Ph.D., assistant professor of management in Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business. The research team measured each employee’s autonomy (the level of a worker’s independence), strain (defined in this study as exhaustion, disengagement and dissatisfaction) and emotional stability. Emotional stability, Perry explained, “captures how even keeled someone is or, on the opposite end, how malleable their emotions are. An example would be if something stressful happens at work, a person who is high on emotional stability would take it in stride, remain positive and figure out how to address it. A person low on emotional stability might get frustrated and discouraged, expending energy with those emotions instead of on the issue at hand.” The research found that: • Autonomy is critical to protecting remote employees’ well-being and helping them avoid strain. • Employees reporting high levels of autonomy and emotional stability appear to be the most able to thrive in remote-work positions. • Employees reporting high levels of job autonomy with lower levels of emotional stability appear to be more susceptible to strain. Perry said the study contradicts past research that says autonomy is a universal need that everyone possesses. Per this research, those who are lower in emotional stability may not need or want as much autonomy in their work. “This lower need for autonomy may explain why less emotionally stable employees don’t do as well when working remotely, even when they have autonomy,” researchers wrote. In addition to their findings, the researchers offered several recommendations for managers who design or oversee remote-work arrangements. The research team advised managers to consider their employees’ behavior when deciding who will work remotely. “I would suggest managers look at employee behaviors, rather than for personality traits, per se,” Perry said. “For example, if someone does not handle stress well in the office, they are not likely to handle it well at home either. If someone gets overwhelmed easily, or reacts in big ways to requests or issues in the office, they are likely less well positioned to work remotely and handle that responsibility and stress.” Based on this study, individuals with high emotional stability and high levels of autonomy are better suited for remote work, but such candidates might not always be available. “If less emotionally stable individuals must work remotely, managers should take care to provide more resources, other than autonomy, including support to help foster strong relationships with coworkers and avoid strain,” they wrote. Managers might also consider providing proper training and equipment for remote work, including proper separation of work and family spaces, clear procedural and performance expectations and regular contact (virtual or face-to-face) with coworkers and managers. ABOUT THE STUDY “Stress in Remote Work: Two Studies Testing The Demand-Control-Person Model,” published in the European Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, is authored by Sara Perry, Ph.D., assistant professor of management, Hankamer School of Business, Baylor University, Emily Hunter, Ph.D., associate professor of management, Hankamer School of Business, Baylor Univeersity, and Cristina Rubino, professor of management, David Nazarian College of Business and Economics, California State University Northridge. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 17,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 80 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT HANKAMER SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business provides a rigorous academic experience, consisting of classroom and hands-on learning, guided by Christian commitment and a global perspective. Recognized nationally for several programs, including Entrepreneurship and Accounting, the school offers 24 undergraduate and 13 graduate areas of study. Visit www.baylor.edu/business and follow on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Baylor_Business.

Former U.S. Attorney Available to Discuss Fallout for Trump Administration in Light of Cohen Plea

Wheaton College Professor David Iglesias, a former U.S. Attorney in New Mexico whose areas of expertise include federal prosecutions, is available for interviews regarding the fallout for the Trump administration in light of Michael Cohen’s guilty plea in federal court on 8 criminal counts, including violation of campaign finance laws. “President Trump is now in a place few presidents have ever been,” Iglesias says. “At this point, he is basically an unindicted co-conspirator to federal crimes.” “I wouldn’t call it the beginning of the end, but it’s certainly the end of the beginning.” Iglesias is an associate professor of politics and law and director of the Wheaton Center for Faith, Politics, and Economics. He can discuss topics including: -The process of presidential pardons -How federal prosecutors treat indicted persons who cooperate with information concerning the crimes of other persons, and the quid pro quo for getting an individual to cooperate with law enforcement -Guilty pleas, hung juries, and sentencing in federal court -Impeachment (What Iglesias calls “the nuclear option for removing a sitting President of the United States”), the process, and why it has happened so rarely in U.S. history -Whether a sitting president can be indicted for crimes -The importance of the rule of law (Why is America the world leader for holding all accountable for their actions? What message is being sent if wealthy and powerful people can avoid criminal exposure for their actions?) -Watergate as a precedent, and similarities/differences with the current situation -Rules of federal investigations (How do federal agencies conduct investigations? What is public and what is non-public? Why are prosecutions that are considered "political" so dangerous for law enforcement?) To request an interview with Professor Iglesias, e-mail Wheaton College Director of Media Relations LaTonya Taylor at latonya.taylor@wheaton.edu. Source:

What can the Big Mac tell us about our economy?

McDonald’s is celebrating Big Mac’s 50th anniversary by giving away MacCoins, which customers can use to buy a Big Mac in 50 countries. The idea of creating this burger currency, according to the company, originated from the “Big Mac Index,” which The Economist has used since 1986 to compare real currencies across the globe. Because McDonald’s has more than 36,000 restaurants in more than 100 countries, the price of its top-selling burger, locally produced in more than 80 countries, has been used to indicate the purchasing power of a country’s economy. What does burgernomics tell us about our economy? Dr. Simon Medcalfe is a professor of economics and finance at Augusta University and is available to discuss: • How the Big Mac Index is calculated • What the latest Big Mac Index says about the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy • Why the Big Mac has been called the nearly perfect commodity for currency comparison Medcalfe has published academic articles in the areas of sports and health economics and economic education as well as contributed to labor economics and entrepreneurial finance textbooks. Contact us to schedule an interview with Dr. Medcalfe or learn more about his expertise. Source: