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With dockworkers on the picket line - what can consumers expect as shipping dries up?
As port workers strike across the country, the shutdown at ports could have reverberating effects on consumers, the economy, and businesses. With consumers already facing higher prices, the strikes will likely cause more supply chain delays and price increases that will be passed on to consumers. There will be a lot of media attention surrounding the looming shortages, the implications for the economy, and how retailers will recover as workers and companies attempt to reach a negotiation. Steven Carnovale, Ph.D., associate professor of supply chain management and David Menachof, Ph.D., associate professor of supply chains and operations management, have the expertise in supply chain, global sourcing and production networks, logistics, and transportation to help reporters make sense of the various impacts this will have. Both experts are ready to help with your stories and contribute to your coverage. To connect with Steven Carnovale and David Menachof - click on their icons below. Photo credit: New York Times
VR Simulation to Demonstrate the Danger of Snow Squalls
Since 2017, Dr. Jase Bernhardt, Hofstra associate professor of geology, environment, and sustainability, has been using virtual reality technology to teach the public about the dangers of rip currents, hurricanes, and flash flooding. His most recent award, a $100,000 Road to Zero Community Traffic Safety Grant from the National Safety Council, is enabling him to tackle another seasonal weather worry: driving in snow squalls. The National Safety Council received funding for this grant from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Bernhardt’s project aims to share information about the onset of snow squalls, the importance of heeding emergency weather advisories, and what drivers should do if they are on the road when a snow squall occurs. Although squalls are infrequent, they are extreme and frightening winter weather events that can result in a rapid onset of heavy snow, low visibility, icy roadways, and frigid temperatures. “Snow squalls are a very specific type of weather phenomenon. They often occur on a clear, calm day, with no warning of precipitation,” Bernhardt said. “Seemingly out of nowhere, you’ll see clouds, followed by a quick burst of very heavy snow. For a short time, perhaps only 10, 15 minutes, there are whiteout conditions where drivers can barely see the road ahead of them.” According to the U.S. Department of Transportation website, 24% of weather-related vehicle crashes occur on snowy, slushy, or icy pavement, and 15% happen during snowfall or sleet. More than 1,300 people are killed and nearly 117,000 people are injured in vehicle crashes on snowy, slushy, or icy pavement annually. Because winters in the New York metropolitan area have been mild for the last few years, Bernhardt worries that people have been lulled into a false sense of security about driving during winter storms or squalls. “We’re not used to being in that kind of severe weather anymore,” he said. “Snow squalls can be deadly in terms of massive collisions and multi-vehicle chain collisions. The key thing to remember is that they come in rapidly, catching people by surprise.” Bernhardt is collaborating on the software for the snow squall VR simulation with Frank Martin ’22, ’23, who earned both a BS and an MS in Computer Science from Hofstra University. Users will wear a headset and hold a device – like a video game controller – in each hand to replicate the movements of a steering wheel. In this way, users will experience what it is like to drive from clear, pleasant conditions into a brutal wall of snow. Bernhardt said that if a warning for a snow squall is issued via emergency broadcast, he hopes people who have used the simulation will understand the urgency of getting off the road or pulling onto the shoulder and remaining in their vehicle. “We want people to have an experience that is as close to reality as possible. The idea is to simulate how sudden and terrifying snow squalls can be and give people an opportunity to learn what they should and should not do if they are caught in one,” Bernhardt said. In conjunction with the VR simulation, Bernhardt is developing a survey to determine people’s reactions to emergency messaging and how effective it is. He will work with the National Weather Service to have the simulation and surveys available by fall 2025 for use at training and outreach events throughout the Northeast. Like Bernhardt’s rip current project, there are plans to have a version of the snow squall simulation and corresponding literature available in Spanish. Dr. Sasha Pesci, Hofstra assistant professor of geology, environment, and sustainability, is co-principal investigator on the grant and is helping with the translation of materials. “More and more, the National Weather Service, state and federal governments, and other agencies recognize the importance of having this information available in other languages,” Bernhardt said. “There are a lot of drivers whose primary language is Spanish, and they include cab and Uber drivers, and truckers.” Jase Bernhardt is available to speak with media about this topic - simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
ExpertSpotlight: The History of America's Steel Industry
The steel industry has been a cornerstone of American industrialization, shaping the nation's economy, infrastructure, and workforce. As the backbone of major industries from construction to transportation, the history of steel production in America is more than just a tale of technological advancement—it's a story of social transformation, labor movements, and global competition. This topic is crucial as it offers insights into the evolution of American manufacturing, the rise and decline of industrial cities, and the ongoing challenges in maintaining domestic production in a globalized economy. The relevance of the steel industry today is underscored by its connection to contemporary issues such as trade policies, environmental sustainability, and the future of American manufacturing. Potential story angles for journalists include: The role of the steel industry in shaping American cities and communities The impact of global trade policies on the American steel industry The evolution of labor movements within the steel industry Technological innovations and their influence on steel production Environmental challenges and sustainability efforts in steel manufacturing The future of the steel industry in the context of American infrastructure projects Connect with an expert about the History of America's Steel Industry: To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com
West Sanctions Russian Aviation, But Moscow Decides to Keep Planes Flying Despite Risks When the U.S. and its allies slapped sanctions on Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, severing aviation links was at the top of the list. Direct flights vanished and Russian airlines lost access to spare parts for their foreign airplanes. In retaliation, Vladimir Putin’s regime impounded foreign aircraft and shut off the world’s largest air space to countries imposing sanctions. Not since the early 1980s—when the U.S. suspended routes to the USSR over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, repression in Poland and downing of a Korean Air Lines plane—have aviation ties between the two countries dipped so low. Aviation sanctions today are having an impact but come with a major risk. If the fatal crash of a jetliner killing hundreds is linked to the lack of spare parts, Putin will blame sanctions and the West. The stakes are high as Russia seeks to use any issue from cluster bombs to soccer to widen cracks in Western unity over Ukraine. To get ahead of this, U.S. policymakers and their allies need to better explain the effects of sanctions, why they’re worth the risk and why the Russian state, not the West, is ultimately responsible for any fatal crash. U.S. government assessments place Russian aviation among sectors negatively impacted by sanctions. A closer look shows widening success in degrading this increasingly weak link in Russia’s political economy. By late 2021, foreign aircraft comprised 70% of Russia’s fleet of 801 passenger airplanes, which included 298 Airbuses, 236 Boeings, and 23 other foreign aircraft such as Embraers. In addition, 95% of Russian airline flights were on foreign-made aircraft. Consequently, sanctions aimed at depriving spare parts for foreign airplanes have caused many disruptions such as fare increases to cover higher costs of repairs. Some of Russia’s 53 airlines have periodically suspended or stopped flying some of their foreign planes. Reports of Russian airlines’ cannibalization of foreign aircraft similarly underscore a dire situation. Less well known is how sanctions hurt Russian manufacturing since Western technology is critical to aircraft such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which uses a French-Russian engine (though Russians are working on a substitution). Production of the Yakovlev design bureau’s MC-21 passenger airplane faces significant delays due to sanctions that force substitution of its Western-made parts. Sanctions even helped push Russia out of a joint venture with China to produce the CR929 widebody aircraft. While China is happy to help Russia thwart sanctions, this plane needs Western systems that sanctions complicate. In response, Russia has adapted to and thwarted some aviation sanctions, which I predicted would happen because Putin’s regime is reproducing a state-centered aviation sector rooted in the Soviet past. The war has accelerated the state’s growing control over this vital economic sector, which began before Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Examples include the state’s 51% ownership of Aeroflot since 1994, the merger of two smaller, state-run airlines in 2003 and the consolidation of aircraft manufacturing in the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), which was created in 2006. More recently, the Russian state has helped the country’s airlines weather sanctions by facilitating the illegal confiscation of foreign aircraft. Russian airlines have also proven resourceful by purchasing spare parts through brokers in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Better known for supplying Russia with drones, Iran also agreed to provide Russian airlines with spare parts and has been fixing an Aeroflot Airbus for months. Many foreign airlines continue to fly to Russia, and Putin’s regime rewards friendly countries with overflight rights. But the longer sanctions remain, the harder it’s getting for Russia. To regain profitable foreign routes, its airlines are receiving government assistance to legitimately purchase the Western aircraft they illegally seized, although recent holdups in allocating such funds are causing doubts. In a throwback to the Soviet era, Putin’s regime boasts that Russia doesn’t need the West’s airplanes anyway since its one manufacturer, the UAC, will pick up the slack. Such import substitution is unlikely to succeed, as multiple delays suggest. More likely, Russia’s aviation sector will grow more reliant on the state, if not actually part of it like the UAC. This will make Russian aviation less efficient, less innovative and more expensive. Iranian airlines, which have long suffered under foreign sanctions despite some success circumventing them, present their Russian counterparts with a grim vision of the future such as being shut out of lucrative air travel markets and falling behind in emerging aviation technology. How does this shape safety in Russia’s skies? The short answer is that it’s not as bad as headlines suggest and the impact of sanctions is ambiguous at best. Click bait stories paint a dire picture but often conflate commercial, military and general aviation into alarming numbers that do not accurately capture what ordinary passengers face. Some accounts, such as one claiming 120 accidents occurred in 2023, provide few details or sources. Annual safety reports from Russia’s Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) allow for comparison over time but often obscure Russia’s situation by combining data from each post-Soviet state it monitors. Its 2019 report is mysteriously missing and its decision not to investigate the fatal crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Embraer Legacy 600 plane suggests meddling from above. That said, the IAC source base is the most systematic we have. Keeping in mind the potential for the politicization of its conclusions, what does a critical reading of its data alongside other sources suggest? First, fatal crashes in commercial and general aviation actually decreased in Russia from 18 in 2021 to 13 in 2022, and related deaths decreased from 70 to 24. Data for the first half of 2023 points in the same direction, with six fatal crashes and nine deaths. This trend was likely helped by the 14% decline in traffic after February 2022. While so many fatal crashes sound substantial, all but three in 2021 and all but one in 2022 involved small aircraft under 5,700 kilograms, not the jetliners we associate with most commercial flying. Absolute figures on crashes and deaths capture headlines but they don’t say much about safety without considering their relation to passengers flown or departures. According to the IAC, the rate of aviation accidents and the rate of fatal crashes per one million departures both increased from 2020 to 2021 but then decreased in 2022. The IAC does not single out Russia from other post-Soviet states for this metric. But since Russia has the largest aviation sector among those countries, these data suggest that its aviation safety has not dramatically worsened since early 2022. Indeed, even critics who argue that Russian airlines are less safe partly because of sanctions conclude that “2022 and 2023 were also good years for airline safety [in Russia] compared to 2021.” Comparisons with the U.S. similarly suggest that passenger aviation is not as disastrous as some headlines suggest. The IAC data indicates that Russia and other post-Soviet states are usually but not always behind the U.S. in passenger aviation safety. In 2018, for example, IAC countries reported a 0.8 rate of fatal crashes per 1 million departures of passenger aircraft above 5,700 kilograms. Comparable statistics from the National Transportation Safety Board showed a 0.11 rate for that year for scheduled U.S. carrier flights. In 2019, the rates were 2.3 (IAC) and 0.10 (U.S.), but in 2020, both IAC countries and the U.S. enjoyed a 0.0 rate of fatal crashes. The following year, however, IAC countries reported a 1.9 rate of fatal crashes, whereas the NTSB reported a 0.0 rate.1 Against this background of Russian airline safety, let’s now turn to the impact of sanctions. While some commentators emphasize that no fatal crashes have been tied to sanctions, others claim they make Russian airlines unsafe and that it’s only a matter of time before such a fatal crash happens. Some even argue that life-threatening dangers prove aviation sanctions are effective and could help turn Russians against Putin. To reassure the public, Russian aviation officials insist the country’s airlines are safe despite sanctions, as do Russian business media and aviation journalists. This plays to Putin’s claims to legitimacy based in part on withstanding anything the West throws at him. In sharp contrast, Ukrainian media tells Russians their airlines are a disaster waiting to happen precisely because of sanctions. Independent Russian journalists banished by Putin concur, raising alarms about efforts to cover up the impact of sanctions and about the many ways Russian airlines cut corners on safety. In short, an information war exists around the morbid question of whether a Russian jetliner will crash and the role sanctions could play. Fears of a fatal crash were validated by the emergency landing of a Ural Airlines A320 in September, apparently caused by malfunctioning hydraulics tied to sanctions. But a closer examination by a Russian aviation journalist suggests the pilots played a more important role by pressing on to an airport for which there wasn’t enough fuel. Recent Russian state assessments of aviation safety similarly point to pilot error and poor training as the chief causes of aviation incidents. More generally, airplane disasters are usually caused by a convergence of factors—bad weather, a manageable mechanical failure and pilot error—not just one problem. In public discussions, however, pinpointing sanctions’ role tracks more with the politics of the war than technical expertise. At the end of the day, Russian airlines and aviation authorities are solely responsible for putting planes in the sky and Russians’ lives at risk. They continue to claim that everything is fine. But if a fatal crash of a Boeing or Airbus flown by a Russian airline kills hundreds, I predict this narrative will quickly change. Putin will blame the West as he does for everything else affecting his legitimacy, from Russia’s economic problems and his diplomatic failures to protests against his regime and even the war he started in Ukraine. Such a scenario will be a serious test for policymakers who argue that punishing Russia with sanctions is still worth it. To prepare for this, they need to take a page from the Biden administration’s release of intelligence on Russia’s military buildup before the full-scale invasion: publicize as much intelligence as possible on sanctions and their impact, as well as Russia’s aviation sector and what it does or doesn’t do to ensure safety. As Putin’s regime falls back on Soviet-era secrecy about airline safety, sharing such intelligence will be a powerful tool. This will also contribute to broader Western efforts at combatting Russia’s better known disinformation campaigns such as those denying its human rights abuses in Ukraine.
Expert Perspective: UMW's Steven E. Harris lends his opinion to The Russia File
The following piece was written by Steven E. Harris published by the Wilson Center in April 2024 Sanctions Are Spoiling Russia’s Plans to Make Its Own Airplanes Putin’s regime is feeling confident these days. Advances on the battlefield in Ukraine, expansions in armaments production, and the dithering of Republicans in the U.S. Congress show the war has turned in Russia’s favor. A well-orchestrated presidential election and some real public support buoy the regime. Political opponents are either dead, in prison, or in exile. Putin’s regime has also declared victory in blunting Western sanctions and now plans to permanently thwart them with programs of import substitution. Nowhere is this better seen than in aviation, where the state proclaims it will produce over a thousand new airplanes to replace the foreign aircraft its airlines have long flown. But this bold vision for aviation autarky has little chance of succeeding. Russia’s Short-Term Success in Blunting Aviation Sanctions Thus far, Putin’s regime has weathered aviation sanctions through a two-pronged strategy. First, Russian airlines illegally kept about 400 foreign airplanes—primarily Airbuses and Boeings—owned by foreign leasing companies. Second, the state bankrolled settlement claims in order to purchase some of these airplanes so that airlines could fly them abroad without risk of repossession and reduce their foreign debt. To date, approximately 170 foreign airplanes have been legally acquired in this fashion, and the Ministry of Transportation recently asked for more cash to continue settling claims on the remaining 230 foreign planes. The next question is how long Russian airlines, from the state-owned flag carrier Aeroflot to private companies such as S7 and Ural Air Lines, can continue flying their foreign planes. As I wrote in late October, safety has been degraded far less than predicted. But in the absence of spare parts, software updates, and thorough maintenance by foreign providers, Russian airlines have about two years before they will have to ground Boeings and Airbuses for major repairs performed using third-party spare parts. Anticipating the eventual retirement of foreign planes, Putin’s regime has embarked on a massive program to make all-Russian airplanes. This program promises independence from Western technology and leasing companies but reveals the success of sanctions and fundamental weaknesses in state capacity. The 2030 Aviation Manufacturing Plan Announced in June 2022, the program calls for the state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec to manufacture 1,036 airplanes with only Russian parts by 2030. In January 2024, the state allocated 283 billion rubles (U.S. $3.1 billion) to help finance the production of 609 airplanes and prioritize medium-haul aircraft in the overall manufacturing plan. Before sanctions, Russian manufacturers produced a small number of narrow body, medium-haul airplanes such as the MC-21 and the Superjet-100 (SSJ-100) with Western components. Twelve SSJ-100s were manufactured in 2021 and ten the following year. Among the aircraft slated to replace Boeings and Airbuses, the plan called for production in 2023 of three medium-haul Tupolev-214 (Tu-214) airplanes and two Superjet-NEW planes (Superjet-100s with all-Russian parts). None of these were built. In fact, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) failed to manufacture a single passenger airplane in 2023. More recently, the UAC conceded further delays of up to two years for rollout of the MC-21, SSJ-NEW, and Tu-214, as well as of smaller, short-haul aircraft such as the Ilyushin-114 (Il-114) and the “Baikal.” The transition to total import substitution is proving difficult, making it impossible to fulfill early targets of the manufacturing plan. By withdrawing access to Western technology critical for manufacturing, sanctions have successfully shut down production. Russian manufacturers will produce at best inferior aircraft that fly shorter routes using more fuel. At its current rate, the UAC is unlikely to manufacture more than a dozen or so showcase narrow body airplanes before 2030. The manufacturer may have better luck producing simpler planes, such as the Baikal, but the state’s injection of 283 billion rubles doesn’t target its production or that of two other short-haul airplanes. Since the UAC will likely not meet the plan’s annual targets any time soon, Russia’s airlines will have to make do with their aging foreign airplanes and acquire spare parts from third parties. Putin admitted as much at his call-in event in December 2023, during which he praised the import-substitution plan but added that the government would continue to purchase illegally held foreign planes. What Will Russia’s Aviation Manufacturing Plan Actually Produce? Rather than produce new aircraft, the immediate purpose of the state’s manufacturing plan is political theater. The infusion of 283 billion rubles was meant to show the public, before the presidential elections, that Putin’s regime is serious about securing commercial aviation and to generate a sense of normalcy in the midst of war. In the long run, the manufacturing plan is more likely to produce further distortions in Russia’s political economy. These include corruption, secrecy, technologically backward aircraft, and even more state control over commercial aviation. The 283 billion rubles will help Rostec keep state-run subsidiaries such as the United Engine Corporation operating with soft budget constraints and favorable contracts that now lack any competition from Western firms. Executives will siphon off their share of the funds, while Putin’s regime will turn a blind eye as long as everyone remains loyal. If the manufacturing plan continues to falter, state-owned manufacturers will have more incentive to keep their failures secret. In 2023, for example, the Ural Civil Aviation Factory kept hidden cost overruns for the Baikal. When news of a 48 percent increase was finally publicized, Putin’s point man for the Far East region, Yuri Trutnev, was incensed and proclaimed, “Our people are like that: they don’t like to share information.” For now, Putin’s regime allows the Russian business media to report fairly openly about the country’s aviation industry on issues such as spare parts and safety, state subsidies, and shortfalls in production. But if commercial flying becomes more precarious and the manufacturing plan remains unfulfilled, the government will likely limit what the public knows about its airlines and long-term plans to maintain them. As the economic historian Mark Harrison shows in his recent book, Secret Leviathan, secrecy in the Soviet era significantly degraded state capacity in many areas, including production. Post-Soviet autocrats face a similar “secrecy/capacity tradeoff,” while newer techniques of disinformation further erode capacity. In attempting to revive the Soviet Union’s autarkic aviation industry, Putin’s regime will find it hard to avoid similar reductions in capacity. Insofar as Russia’s commercial aviation industry is concerned, the lesson for the West is that it pays to play the long game. Russia has effective tools for blunting sanctions in the short run, but in the long run it faces structural obstacles and the absence of Western technology, both of which will degrade this economic sector. The main question remains whether the United States and its allies can keep up the pressure by enforcing sanctions.
The Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation (VPA) is leading the way in research and policy recommendations on the governance of artificial intelligence. At the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, the groundbreaking initiative was commended by FTC Chair Lina Khan for its impact on her work with the agency. As part of Discovery Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator for Political Economy and Regulation is a groundbreaking initiative to bolster innovative research and education at Vanderbilt. The mission of VPA is to swiftly develop and advance cutting-edge research, education and policy proposals at a pace that aligns with the urgency of today’s challenges. The VPA encompasses several projects, including one dedicated to revitalizing the study of the law and political economy of networks platforms, and utilities (NPUs) in transportation, communications, energy and banking. “Many of our country’s most pressing economic and social challenges are directly tied to how we govern network, platform, and utility industries, including airline flight cancellations, social media regulation, banking failures and electric grid crashes,” said Ganesh Sitaraman, the New York Alumni Chancellor’s Chair in Law at Vanderbilt Law School and director of VPA. VPA’s Project on Networks, Platforms and Utilities has developed a series of papers and policy proposals to improve the governance of these sectors. Among this work are a set of proposals to policymakers for regulating air travel, a plan for stabilizing and regulating the banking sector, and 40 recommendations to promote competition throughout the American economy. With growing interest in AI, VPA has turned its eye to how policymakers can address the harms that come from concentration in the AI technology stack. VPA’s papers have developed an antimonopoly approach to regulating AI, addressed public capacity for AI, and offered proposals on federal procurement of AI resources. VPA’s work in this field has gotten increasing attention. VPA director Ganesh Sitaraman participated in one of the U.S. Senate’s AI Fora in 2023. And during the Third Annual Networks, Platforms & Utilities conference hosted by the VPA in June, FTC Chair Lina Khan specifically noted VPA’s impact on the agency. “I think the work that VPA has been doing on AI has been so enormously useful,” said Khan. “It’s really striking how it took 15 years before the NPU toolkit was even discussed alongside the Web 2.0 giants. So, the fact that from the very get-go this kind of framework is being applied in the context of AI policy discussions really marks that forward movement.” During the June conference, participants—which included 64 attendees from 15 different countries— discussed how their jurisdictions of study approach the regulation of network, platform and utility industries. This year’s conference was structured around eight panels, one on general themes and seven featuring a specific NPU sector: railroads, electricity, banking & finance, airlines, social infrastructure, tech platforms and telecommunications. “Vanderbilt is a leader in research on these topics, and we were very excited to welcome scholars from around the world to Nashville and to Vanderbilt, in order to explore these issues from a comparative and global perspective,” said Sitaraman. In the coming months, the conference organizers intend to compile the papers presented at the conference into an edited volume. To learn more, visit the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator website.
Sport and Study: Villanova University Faculty Offer Academic Lens to Paris Olympics Storylines
All eyes are on Paris: more than 10,000 athletes from 206 nations are set to compete in the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, the third Olympics in the City of Love and the first since 1924. Below, Villanova University faculty members provide their academic expertise on the unique storylines and narratives already taking place as Paris 2024 gets underway. Portraying a National Image in the Opening Ceremony Étienne Achille, PhD Director of French and Francophone Studies After months of speculation, the daily Le Parisien has officially confirmed that renowned French-Malian singer Aya Nakamura will lend her vocals to an opening ceremony featuring an iconic backdrop steeped in history. “Nakamura is the most-streamed Francophone singer in the world, embodying France’s culture on a global stage, and she’ll be paying homage to one of the most cherished representatives of the chanson française,” said Dr. Achille, referring to reports she will sing one of beloved French crooner Charles Aznavour’s greatest hits. According to Dr. Achille, the pop star’s presence is significant and symbolic. “A performer, or even a flagbearer, can easily become the face of a global event like the Olympics,” he said. The details of the setting for the ceremony – in the heart of Paris, along the Seine – are just as intentionally symbolic. “Not only will this be the first opening ceremony to take place entirely outside of a stadium; its location along the river and the fact the delegations will be on boats are key. “It represents movement and connection to the world,” Dr. Achille said. “And Nakamura’s performance projects the image of a modern, multi-ethnic nation building on tradition while proudly marching into the future.” Swimming in the Seine: Safe or Not? Metin Duran, PhD Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering It is, perhaps, the most-asked question of the last few weeks. Is the Seine River, set to host multiple swimming events, safe? The river has been illegal to swim in for a century due to the presence of harmful bacteria such as E. Coli, and recent testing has reaffirmed this concern. The Seine, which had undergone an expensive cleaning to mitigate this issue, received the endorsement of Paris Mayor Ann Hidalgo, who personally took a dip in the water herself to attest to its safety. The stunt did little to convince experts such as Dr. Duran, who studies wastewater, to abandon concern about the potential health risks of athletes being exposed to pathogens in the water. “When we have fecal pollution, there is a high likelihood of pathogens being present,” Dr. Duran said. “Those could be viral, like a norovirus, or protozoan. “If you’re swimming in that water, you run the risk of ingesting it. Once you ingest that polluted water, you’re likely to contract some of those disease-causing pathogens. Ingesting this water doesn’t mean you’re necessarily going to get sick, but based on the number of people in a big city like Paris, there is a very high likelihood of some of these pathogens existing now in the river.” Accommodations for Breastfeeding Athletes Sunny Hallowell, PhD, APRN, PPCNP-BC Associate Professor of Nursing The IOC and Paris 2024 Organizing Committee is providing support to all breastfeeding athletes competing in the Games. A few national governing bodies, like the French Olympic Committee, are going a step further and offering hotel rooms near the Village for their country’s breastfeeding athletes to share with their children and spouses. “A few decades ago, the idea of a female athlete who also wanted to breastfeed their child was so taboo it may have prevented an athlete from competing,” said Dr. Hallowell. “Now, many female athletes who choose to breastfeed their newborns or toddlers conceptualize breastfeeding as another normal function of their remarkably athletic bodies.” Accommodation for breastfeeding athletes and increased awareness are needed more than ever. Dr. Hallowell notes that in addition to changing views on breastfeeding, the needs for such accommodations are increasing as the age of peak athletic performance also increases. “Advances in sports nutrition, wellness and lifestyle have extended the longevity and performance of many athletes into adulthood,” she said. And while some athletes with rigorous training regimens might feel “frustrated incorporating breastfeeding into the routine,” Dr. Hallowell says that for others, “breastfeeding provides both physical and socio-emotional benefits for the mother and the infant that allow the athlete to focus on the job of competition.” Protecting Against the Parisian Heat Ruth McDermott-Levy, PhD, MPH, RN, FAAN Professor of Nursing The potential for extreme heat in Paris has been a topic of concern for athletes and organizers, prompting certain outdoor events to be proactively scheduled at times to avoid the day’s worst heat. Current forecasts predict temperatures in the 90s for several days early on in the Games, which could be exacerbated by Paris’ reputation as an urban heat island, unable to cool due to lack of green space and building density. Dr. McDermott-Levy says the athletes are inherently vulnerable, because “the added stress of physical exertion during their events puts them at greater risk of heat-related illness.” But she also notes that many of the athletes have likely undergone pre-competition training in extreme heat conditions to acclimate and will have trainers and health professionals monitoring them frequently. “The group of concern are the workers at the stadiums, outdoor workers and spectators who are there to enjoy or work at the events and may have had little to no acclimation,” Dr. McDermott-Levy said. “They need to follow local instructions and take frequent breaks from the heat, seek shade and maintain hydration by avoiding alcohol and sugary drinks and drinking water.” How Nature Can Inspire Future Use of Olympic Infrastructure Alyssa Stark, PhD Assistant Professor of Biology Gone, hopefully, are the days of abandoned Olympic Villages and venues, overrun with weeds and rendered useless soon after the Games conclude. The IOC’s commitment to sustainability has been transparently relayed ahead of the 2024 Games, featuring a robust range of initiatives and programs. Dr. Stark is particularly interested in one aspect of ensuring a sustainable Olympics. “How will the structures, materials and systems they developed for the Olympics be re-used, re-shaped or re-worked afterward?” she posed. “This could include re-using buildings to larger scale or re-working transportation systems set in place for the Games that could then integrate into day-to-day life post Olympics.” At the root of her interest is the concept of biomimicry. “A lot of the way we think about designing, if we’re using this biomimicry lens, is how do we learn from nature to solve problems that we have in a sustainable way, keeping in mind the environment we are in?” Dr. Stark said. In this case, consider how something like a dwelling of a living creature might be repurposed to fit the needs of another creature, or serve another natural purpose, without harming the ecosystem. Could that inspire a way to re-use the Olympic infrastructure? “There are a ton of examples of [biomimicry] being used and working in products,” Dr. Stark said. “But I would say the next step is looking at the social levels of these big ecosystems – building architecture, city planning, flow of information and, in this instance, repurposing what was created for the Olympics.” Paris Could Be a Transportation Model for Major City Events in the United States Arash Tavakoli, PhD Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Paris has invested 250 million Euro the last several years to transform the city to a 100% cycling city, making it one of the most bike-friendly municipalities in the world. Currently, more trips are being made by bicycles in Paris than by cars (11% vs. 4%), a trend that has permeated to the surrounding suburbs as well. With an influx of travelers in Paris for the Games, Dr. Tavakoli, an expert in human transportation, said, “The Olympics will be a test for how well these kinds of systems respond to high fluctuations in the population as compared to vehicle-centric systems.” While Paris is thousands of miles away from the United States, how bicycle, pedestrian and vehicle systems work during the Games could provide helpful insight ahead of major events in American cities. “With the World Cup coming to the U.S. in a few years, it will be interesting to compare [Paris] with how our own system responds to people’s needs,” Dr. Tavakoli said. “Not just based on traffic data and congestion, but also considering factors like how comfortable the transportation system is, how much it affects our well-being and how much it attracts a nonresident to enjoy the U.S. when their only option, for the most part, is a vehicle.”
Expert Insight: Training Innovative AI to Provide Expert Guidance on Prescription Medications
A new wave of medications meant to treat Type II diabetes is grabbing headlines around the world for their ability to help people lose a significant amount of weight. They are called GLP-1 receptor agonists. By mimicking a glucagon-like peptide (GLP) naturally released by the body during digestion, they not only lower blood sugar but also slow digestion and increase the sense of fullness after eating. The two big names in GLP-1 agonists are Ozempic and Wegovy, and both are a form of semaglutide. Another medication, tirzepatide, is sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound. It is also a glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) agonist as well as GLP-1. Physicians have been prescribing semaglutide and tirzepatide with increasing frequency. However, both medications come with a host of side effects, including nausea and stomach pain, and are not suitable for every patient. Many clinics and physicians do not have immediate access to expert second opinions, as do the physicians at Emory Healthcare. Creating a Digital Twin That lack of an expert is one of the reasons Karl Kuhnert, professor in the practice of organization and management at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School, is using artificial intelligence to capture the expertise of physicians like Caroline Collins MD through the Tacit Object Modeler™, or TOM. By using TOM, developed by Merlynn Intelligence Technologies, Kuhnert and Collins can create her “decision-making digital twin.” This allows Collins to reveal her expertise as a primary care physician with Emory Healthcare and an Assistant Professor at Emory School of Medicine, where she has been leading the field in integrating lifestyle medicine into clinical practices and education. Traditional AI, like ChatGPT, uses massive amount of data points to predict outcomes using what’s known as explicit knowledge. But it isn’t necessarily learning as it goes. According to Kuhnert, TOM has been designed to learn how an expert, like Collins, decides whether or not to prescribe a drug like semaglutide to a patient. Wisdom or tacit knowledge is intuitive and rooted in experience and context. It is hard to communicate, and usually resides only in the expert’s mind. TOM’s ability to “peek into the expert’s mind makes it a compelling technology for accessing wisdom.” “Objective or explicit knowledge is known and can be shared with others,” says Kuhnert. "For example, ChatGPT uses explicit knowledge in its answers. It’s not creating something new. It may be new to you as you read it, but somebody, somewhere, before you, has created it. It’s understood as coming from some source." Karl Kuhnert “Tacit knowledge is subjective wisdom. Experts offer this, and we use their tacit know-how, their implicit knowledge, to make their decisions. If it were objective, everyone could do it. This is why we hire experts: They see things and know things others don’t; they see around corners.” Mimicking the Mind of a Medical Expert Teaching TOM to see around the corners requires Collins to work with the AI over the course of a few days. “Essentially what I do is I sit down with, in this case, a physician, and ask them, ‘What are thinking about when you make this decision?'” says Kuhnert. “The layperson might think that there are hundreds of variables in making a medical decision like this. With the expert’s tacit knowledge and experience, it is usually between seven and twelve variables. They decide based on these critical variables,” he says. "These experts have so much experience, they can cut away a lot of the noise around a decision and get right to the point and ask, ‘What am I looking at?’" Karl Kuhnert As TOM learns, it presents Collins with more and different scenarios for prescribing semaglutide. As she makes decisions, it remembers the variables present during her decision-making process. “Obviously, some variables are going to be more important than other variables. Certain combinations are going to be challenging,” says Collins. “Sometimes there are going to be some variables where I think, yes, this patient needs a GLP-1. Then there may be some variables where I think, no, this person really doesn’t need that. And which ones are going to win out? That’s really where TOM is valuable. It can say, okay, when in these difficult circumstances where there are conflicting variables, which one will ultimately be most important in making that decision?” The Process: Trusting AI After working with TOM for several hours, Collins will have reacted to enough scenarios for TOM to learn to make her decision. The Twin will need to demonstrate that it can replicate her decision-making with acceptable accuracy—high 90s to 100 percent. Once there, Collins’ Twin is ready to use. “I think it’s important to have concordance between what I would say in a situation and then what my digital twin would say in a situation because that’s our ultimate goal is to have an AI algorithm that can duplicate what my recommendation would be given these circumstances for a patient,” Collins says. “So, someone, whether that be an insurance company, or a patient themselves or another provider, would be able to consult TOM, and in essence, me, and say, in this scenario, would you prescribe a GLP-1 or not given this specific patient’s situation?” The patient’s current health and family history are critical when deciding whether or not to prescribe semaglutide. For example, according to Novo Nordisk, the makers of Ozempic, the drug should not be prescribed to patients with a history of problems with the pancreas or kidneys or with a family history of thyroid cancer. Those are just the start of a list of reasons why a patient may or may not be a good candidate for the medication. Kuhnert says, “What we’re learning is that there are so many primary care physicians right now that if you come in with a BMI over 25 and are prediabetic, you’re going to get (a prescription). But there’s much more data around this to suggest that there are people who are health marginalized, and they can’t do this. They should not have this (medication). It’s got to be distributed to people who can tolerate it and are safe.” Accessing the Digital Twin on TOM Collins’s digital twin could be available via something as easy to access as an iPhone app. “Part of my job is to provide the latest information to primary care physicians. Now, I can do this in a way that is very powerful for primary care physicians to go on their phones and put it in. It’s pretty remarkable, according to Colllins.” It is also transparent and importantly sourced information. Any physician using a digital twin created with TOM will know exactly whose expertise they are accessing, so anyone asking for a second opinion from Colllins will know they are using an expert physician from Emory University. In addition to patient safety, there are a number of ways TOM can be useful to the healthcare industry when prescribing medications like semaglutide. This includes interfacing with insurance companies and the prior approval process, often lengthy and handled by non-physician staff. “Why is a non-expert at an insurance company determining whether a patient needs a medication or not? Would it be better to have an expert?” says Collins. “I’m an expert in internal medicine and lifestyle medicine. So, I help people not only lose weight, but also help people change their behaviors to optimize their health. My take on GLP-1 medications is not that everyone needs them, it’s that they need to be utilized in a meaningful way, so patients will get benefit, given risks and benefits for these medications.” The Power of a Second Opinion Getting second, and sometimes third, opinions is a common practice among physicians and patients both. When a patient presents symptoms to their primary care physician, that physician may have studied the possible disease in school but isn’t necessarily an expert. In a community like Emory Healthcare, the experts are readily available, like Collins. She often serves as a second opinion for her colleagues and others around the country. “What we’re providing folks is more of a second opinion. Because we want this actually to work alongside someone, you can look at this opinion that this expert gave, and now, based on sourced information, you can choose. This person may be one of the best in the country, if not the world, in making this decision. But we’re not replacing people here. We’re not dislocating people with this technology. We need people. We need today’s and tomorrow’s experts as well,” according to Kuhnert. But also, you now have the ability to take an Emory physician’s diagnosing capabilities to physicians in rural areas and make use of this information, this knowledge, this decision, and how they make this decision. We have people here that could really help these small hospitals across the country. Caroline Collin MD Rural Americans have significant health disparities when compared to those living in urban centers. They are more likely to die from heart disease, cancer, injury, chronic respiratory disease, and stroke. Rural areas are finding primary care physicians in short supply, and patients in rural areas are 64 percent less likely to have access to medical specialists for needed referrals. Smaller communities might not have immediate access to experts like a rheumatologist, for example. In addition, patients in more rural areas might not have the means of transportation to get to a specialist, nor have the financial means to pay for specialized visits for a diagnosis. Collins posits that internal medicine generalists might suspect a diagnosis but want to confirm before prescribing a course of treatment. “If I have a patient for whom I am trying to answer a specific question, ‘Does this patient have lupus?’, for instance. I’m not going to be able to diagnose this person with lupus. I can suspect it, but I’m going to ask a rheumatologist. Let’s say I’m in a community where unfortunately, we don’t have a rheumatologist. The patient can’t see a rheumatologist. That’s a real scenario that’s happening in the United States right now. But now I can ask the digital twin acting as a rheumatologist, given these variables, ‘Does this patient have lupus?’ And the digital twin could give me a second opinion.” Sometimes, those experts are incredibly busy and might not have the physical availability for a full consult. In this case, someone could use TOM to create the digital twin of that expert. This allows them to give advice and second opinions to a wider range of fellow physicians. As Kuhnert says, TOM is not designed or intended to be a substitute for a physician. It should only work alongside one. Collins agreed, saying, “This doesn’t take the place of a provider in actual clinical decision-making. That’s where I think someone could use it inappropriately and could get patients into trouble. You still have to have a person there with clinical decision-making capacity to take on additional variables that TOM can’t yet do. And so that’s why it’s a second opinion.” “We’re not there yet in AI says Collins. We have to be really careful about having AI make actual medical decisions for people without someone there to say, ‘Wait a minute, does this make sense?’” AI Implications in the Classroom and Beyond Because organizations use TOM to create digital twins of their experts, the public cannot use the twins to shop for willing doctors. “We don’t want gaming the system,” says Collins. “We don’t want doctor shopping. What we want is a person there who can utilize AI in a meaningful way – not in a dangerous way. I think we’ll eventually get there where we can have AI making clinical decisions. But I don’t think I’d feel comfortable with that yet.” The implications of using decision-making digital twins in healthcare reach far beyond a second opinion for prescription drugs. Kuhnert sees it as an integral part of the future of medical school classrooms at Emory. In the past, teaching case studies have come from books, journals, and papers. Now, they could come alive in the classroom with AI simulation programs like TOM. "I think this would be great for teaching residents. Imagine that we could create a simulation and put this in a classroom, have (the students) do the simulation, and then have the physician come in and talk about how she makes her decisions." Karl Kuhnert “And then these residents could take this decision, and now it’s theirs. They can keep it with them. It would be awesome to have a library of critical health decisions made in Emory hospitals,” Kuhnert says. Collins agreed. “We do a lot of case teaching in the medical school. I teach both residents and medical students at Emory School of Medicine. This would be a really great tool to say, okay, given these set of circumstances, what decision would you make for this patient? Then, you could see what the expert’s decision would have been. That could be a great way to see if you are actually in lockstep with the decision-making process that you’re supposed to be learning.” Kuhnert sees decision-making twins moving beyond the healthcare system and into other arenas like the courtroom, public safety, and financial industries and has been working with other experts to digitize their knowledge in those fields. "The way to think about this is: say there is a subjective decision that gets made that has significant ramifications for that company and maybe for the community. What would it mean if I could digitize experts and make it available to other people who need an expert or an expert’s decision-making?" Karl Kuhnert “You think about how many people aren’t available. Maybe you have a physician who’s not available. You have executives who are not available. Often expertise resides in the minds of just a few people in an organization,” says Kuhnert. “Pursuing the use of technologies like TOM takes the concept of the digital human expert from simple task automation to subjective human decision-making support and will expand the idea of a digital expert into something beyond our current capabilities,” Kuhnert says. “I wanted to show that we could digitize very subjective decisions in such areas as ethical and clinical decision-making. In the near future, we will all learn from the wisdom codified in decision-making digital twins. Why not learn from the best? There is a lot of good work to do.” Karl Kuhnert is a Professor in the Practice of Organization & Management and Associate Professor of Psychiatry, School of Medicine and Senior Faculty Fellow of the Emory Ethics Center. If you're looking to connect with Karl to know more - simply click on his icon now to arrange a time to talk today.
The Golden Spike and railroad history are not merely relics of the past; they represent pivotal moments in human innovation and connectivity that continue to shape our present and future. This event matters to the public because it commemorates the completion of the first transcontinental railroad in the United States, symbolizing unity, progress, and the spirit of exploration. Delving into this historical milestone offers numerous story angles that captivate a broad audience: The impact of railroads on westward expansion and economic growth Stories of perseverance and labor in building the transcontinental railroad Technological advancements in railway engineering and construction Cultural and social transformations brought about by the railroad Environmental implications of railroad expansion and modern-day sustainability efforts Tourism and heritage preservation initiatives centered around railroad history As we celebrate the Golden Spike and reflect on railroad history, it's an opportune time for journalists to explore these multifaceted narratives that resonate with audiences worldwide. Connect with an Expert about transportation and railroad history: Allan Zarembski Professor of Practice Civil and Environmental Engineering; Director, Railway Engineering and Safety Program · University of Delaware James Kieselburg Director · Milwaukee School of Engineering James McCommons Associate Professor · Movable Type Management Danaya Wright Professor/Director · University of Florida To search our full list of experts visit www.expertfile.com Photo Credit: Tom Barrett
Homes heated by human sewage could be a reality thanks to Aston University
Project to transform sewage sludge into clean water and energy awarded a share of £4.5 million by Ofwat Involves extracting energy from the waste produced during sewage and water treatment Gases obtained can be used to power engines or heat people’s homes. An Aston University project that could transform sewage sludge into clean water and energy has been awarded a share of £4.5 million by Ofwat. The University project with engineering consultancy ICMEA-UK involves extracting energy from the waste produced during sewage and water treatment and transforming it into hydrogen and/or methane. The gases can then be used to power engines or heat people’s homes. The aim is to create a sustainable and cost-efficiently run wastewater processes, plus extra energy. The initiative was one of ten winners of Ofwat’s Water Discovery Challenge, of which the Aston University scientists and two industrial partners have been awarded £427,000. Dr Jude Onwudili based at Aston University’s Energy and Bioproducts Research Institute (EBRI) is leading the team of scientists who will work with the partners to develop a trial rig to transform solid residues from wastewater treatment plants to hydrogen and/or methane. The two-stage process will involve the initial transformation of organic components in the sludge into liquid intermediates, which will then be converted to the fuel gases in a second stage. The project is called REvAR (Renewable Energy via Aqueous-phase Reforming), and Dr Onwudili will be working with lead partner and engineering consultancy company ICMEA-UK Limited and sustainable infrastructure company Costain. REVAR combines the use of hot-pressurised water or hydrothermal conditions with catalysts to achieve high conversion efficiency. The technique can treat sewage sludge in just minutes, and it is hoped that it will replace existing processes. In 2013, a Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management report stated that the sector is the fourth most energy intensive industry in the UK. Dr Onwudili said: “This project is important because millions of tonnes of sewage sludge are generated in the UK each year and the water industry is struggling with how to effectively manage them as waste. “Instead, they can be converted into valuable feedstocks which are used for producing renewable fuel gases, thereby increasing the availability of feedstocks to meet UK decarbonisation targets through bioenergy. “We will be taking a waste product and recovering two important products from it: clean water and renewable energy. Overall, the novel technology will contribute towards meeting UK Net Zero obligations by 2050 and ties in with the University’s purpose to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation.” The Water Discovery Challenge aims to accelerate the development and adoption of promising new innovations for the water sector. Over the next six months, winners will also receive non-financial support and will be able to pitch their projects to potential water company partners and/or investors. The 10 winning teams are from outside the water industry and were chosen because of their projects’ potential to help solve the biggest challenges facing the sector. The competition is part of the Ofwat Innovation Fund, run by the water regulator Ofwat, with Challenge Works, Arup and Isle Utilities and is the first in the water sector to invite ideas from innovators across industries. Helen Campbell, senior director for sector performance at Ofwat, said: “This competition was about reaching new innovators from outside the sector with different approaches and new ideas, and that’s exactly what the winners are doing. “The products and ideas recognised in this cross-sector challenge will equip water companies to better face challenges of the future – including achieving sustainability goals and meeting net zero targets – all while providing the highest-quality product for consumers.” ENDS A Blueprint For Carbon Emissions Reduction in the UK Water Industry The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management https://www.ciwem.org/assets/pdf/Policy/Reports/A-Blueprint-for-carbon-emissions-reductions-in-the-water-industry.pdf Ofwat Innovation Fund Ofwat, the Water Services Regulation Authority for England and Wales, has established a £200 million Innovation Fund to grow the water sector’s capacity to innovate, enabling it to better meet the evolving needs of customers, society and the environment. The Innovation Fund, delivered in partnership with Challenge Works (formerly known as Nesta Challenges) and supported by Arup and Isle Utilities, is designed to complement Ofwat’s existing approach to innovation and to help deliver against Ofwat’s strategy which highlights the role of innovation in meeting many of the challenges the sector faces. About ICMEA-UK Based in Sheffield, in the North of England, ICMEA-UK is the UK arm of an established Italian innovative engineering company - ICMEA SRL. They are an innovative Engineering consultancy company, and work in partnership with a range of other organisations to provide innovative, bespoke solutions to problems where an Engineering solution is required. About Costain Costain helps to improve people’s lives by creating connected, sustainable infrastructure that enables people and the planet thrive. They shape, create, and deliver pioneering solutions that transform the performance of the infrastructure ecosystem across the UK’s energy, water, transportation, and defence markets. They are organised around their customers anticipating and solving challenges and helping to improve performance. By bringing together their unique mix of construction, consulting, and digital experts they engineer and deliver sustainable, efficient, and practical solutions. About Aston University For over a century, Aston University’s enduring purpose has been to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation, by enabling our students to succeed in work and life, and by supporting our communities to thrive economically, socially and culturally. Aston University’s history has been intertwined with the history of Birmingham, a remarkable city that once was the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Born out of the First Industrial Revolution, Aston University has a proud and distinct heritage dating back to our formation as the School of Metallurgy in 1875, the first UK College of Technology in 1951, gaining university status by Royal Charter in 1966, and becoming The Guardian University of the Year in 2020. Building on our outstanding past, we are now defining our place and role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk
