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Brexit caused a large negative effect on UK trade pre-pandemic - new Aston University research
Professor Jun Du and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo analysed the causal effect of Brexit on the UK’s services trade between 2016 and 2019 They found the UK experienced an average shortfall of £18.5 billion worth of services exports for each of those years Transport, Travel, Insurance and Telecom sectors experienced significant decline post-2016 No significant decline was found in other services including intellectual property, construction and financial. New research from economics experts at Aston University has found Brexit has caused a largely negative effect on UK services trade since the EU referendum. Professor Jun Du and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, from Aston Business School, analysed the causal effect of the Brexit referendum on UK’s services trade over the period between 2016 and 2019, in comparison to other major services exporters. They found the uncertainty associated with the UK-EU trade negotiations following the referendum caused harms to the UK services economy as a whole, reducing firms’ exports of services. This damages the competitiveness of services sectors which make up a lion’s share of the UK economy in terms of gross output, value-added and jobs. Professor Du and Dr Shepotylo used a Synthetic Difference in Differences (SDID) estimator to construct a counterfactual of the UK, had it not voted leave in 2016, to compare its services exports performance. This was done by comparing the actual performance of the UK with the modelled performance of a country that looks much like the UK, but did not vote to leave the European Union. They found Brexit resulted in the UK experiencing an average shortfall of £18.5 billion worth of services exports every year between 2016 and 2019 relative to what it would have been, had the UK remained in the EU. The impact varied considerably between different types of services. The UK’s exports in the category of transport, travel, insurance and telecom services saw a statistically significant decline following the referendum. No significant decline was found in business, intellectual property, construction, financial or personal, cultural and recreational services. In addition, Professor Du and Dr Shepotylo did not find evidence to suggest that UK businesses have redirected exports in services from the EU markets to those outside the EU, which is in contrast to exports in goods. The research suggested that Ireland has benefited significantly during this period, with growth in post-Brexit services exports up by £24 billion annually over 2016 to 2019 in the country compared to the counterfactual scenario if Brexit did not occur. This translates to 14.75% of Ireland’s 2019 total services exports, with growth clustered largely in the telecoms, business, intellectual property, and insurance sectors. Jun Du, professor of economics at Aston Business School, said: “Brexit marked a rupture in the highly integrated UK-EU services markets that had been developed during the UK’s membership of the single market. However, the UK’s strength in services was not reflected in the government’s ambitions for the sector in the EU-UK trade negotiations that followed the referendum. “There are other winners besides Ireland in some post-Brexit services areas. The Netherlands have increased considerably in ‘Business’ and ‘Intellectual Property’ exports. “Spain has seen growth in ‘Travel and transport’ services exports. Germany has gained in ‘Transport’, ‘Insurance’, ‘Telecom’ and ‘Intellectual Property’ services exports. While Ireland seems to have done exceptionally well in relation to the export of ‘Telecom’ services, a sharp contrast emerges to the lost exports not just from the UK, but also from the Netherlands, Switzerland and France.” Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, a senior lecturer in economics, finance and entrepreneurship at Aston University, co-wrote the working paper and said: “UK services exports are 5.7% lower than they would be without Brexit. It reflects an overall decline of the UK as a place for doing business. “What economists tend to agree on is that the UK’s exit from the EU’s custom union and single market may have more significant impacts on services than goods, and more severe impact on post-Brexit regulated services than unregulated services. “It will take some time for the full impact of Brexit on UK services to emerge. Freedom of movement and data flow in some areas between the UK and EU could remain restricted. Stability, transparency and regulatory consistency in financial markets could be challenged. But new opportunities might surface. “Continued trade negotiations and dialogues regarding trade liberalisation are essential with the EU and large, fast-growing markets beyond Europe. Crucial to understanding these impacts will be reliable data and rigorous analysis. Our modelling of marked losers and winners in post-Brexit services trade provides new evidence for an open discussion of the post-Brexit trade in services.” You can read the full working paper HERE
Why customers hold the key to a company’s true valuation
When determining a fair valuation for a company—especially in anticipation of an initial public offering (IPO)—investors often rely heavily on “top down” approaches focusing primarily on traditional financial measures to do so. But what if this approach doesn’t paint the full picture? Daniel McCarthy, assistant professor of marketing at Emory’s Goizueta Business School, is building the case that augmenting traditional data sources with customer behavior data gives investors a more accurate company valuation. For the past several years, McCarthy and Peter Fader, professor of marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, have worked to refine a customer-driven investment methodology they created. “Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) simply brings more focus to how individual customer behavior drives the top line,” they explained in “How to Value a Company by Analyzing Its Customers,” an article published in the Harvard Business Review (HBR) earlier this year. “This approach is driving a meaningful shift away from the common but dangerous mindset of ‘growth at all costs,’ towards revenue durability and unit economics—and bringing a much higher degree of precision, accountability, and diagnostic value to the new loyalty economy.” Fader, McCarthy’s PhD advisor while he was at Wharton, had done some of the seminal work on forecasting customer shopping/purchasing behaviors. This helped build baseline expertise for how one could go about the customer-level modeling. McCarthy recognized that this behavioral modeling could be put to good use in a financial setting, if done the right way. “There was this untapped source of intellectual property that’s been accumulating within marketing over the last 30 years,” McCarthy said. While other academics have done some conceptual work in the area, none, McCarthy noted, had done so in a way that was consistent with how financial professionals go about performing corporate valuation. McCarthy and Fader merged these well-validated customer-level models with standard corporate valuation methods, then put their resulting valuation tool head-to-head with alternative approaches. They found that their CBCV model subsequently outperformed. A full article on this subject is attached, within it, you will find key CBCV highlights such as: Using unit economics to more accurately predict revenue forecasts Gaining access to the right data The CBCV model is also good for managers and for customers Working to have publicly traded companies adopt CBCV McCarthy’s work on the CBCV methodology has earned him a number of awards, including the MSI Alden G. Clayton, American Statistical Association, INFORMS, and the Shankar-Spiegel dissertation awards. If you are a journalist covering this topic or if you want to learn more about this work or customer-based corporate valuation – then let our experts help. Daniel McCarthy is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at Emory University's Goizueta School of Business where his research specialty is the application of leading-edge statistical methodology to contemporary empirical marketing problems. If you are looking to contact Daniel – simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
Georgia Southern University – is thinking BIG when it comes to entrepreneurs and small business
Through the CARES Act and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Georgia Southern University’s Business Innovation Group (BIG) has received $300,000 in grant funding to expand its services to the region in an effort to help communities and businesses respond to and recover from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. “This will really allow us to help businesses and entrepreneurs throughout the entire state ideally get access to the skills, knowledge and services that Georgia Southern has to offer,” said Dominique Halaby, DPA, director of BIG. Over the next two years, BIG will use these funds to expand their services through the Georgia Enterprise Network for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (GENIE). “We’re hoping that we can demonstrate to budding entrepreneurs and small business owners that Georgia Southern can help them develop and grow,” Halaby said. “We are hopeful that in two years’ time people are going to have a heightened aerial view of awareness for Georgia Southern and our Business Innovation Group services, but more importantly, that they are going to get the type of resources to be able to launch the business that they’ve always wanted to launch.” Halaby said offering these resources to the region is important for economic growth. “Any time that we have an ability to do something, we have a responsibility to do it,” Halaby said. “The needs of our community are great. Our ability to service those needs by connecting those with the resources on our campus and with the skills that we have fostered within BIG puts us in a very unique position. This way, we are able to provide services to help as many entrepreneurs and to help as many people looking for jobs as we possibly can.” BIG will also use part of the grant funding to work with Georgia Southern faculty to strengthen patent and licensing activity. “We’re working with our intellectual property committee and through the University to let faculty know that if they’ve got a concept, that BIG can help them flesh that out. We can work with them to do an analysis to see the marketability for their concept and determine if it’s patentable or licensable,” Halaby said. If you’re a journalist looking to know more about how Georgia Southern University is assisting regional businesses or its Business Innovation Group (BIG) – then let our experts help with your coverage. Dominique Halaby, DPA, is the Director of the Business Innovation Group (BIG) at Georgia Southern University. In 2015, BIG was recognized as a Gold Award Winner in Entrepreneurship by the International Economic Development Council. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
Soundgarden, Chris Cornell's Widow Spar Over Royalties and Recordings
It's been a "Black Hole Sun" set of months for the members of Soundgarden, who are in a legal fight with the widow of the band's former lead singer, Chris Cornell, who died in 2017. Cornell's wife, Vicky, filed suit against the band in December 2019, claiming that her husband's estate was owed "hundreds of thousands of dollars" in royalties for unreleased recordings prior to his death. Now, the band has filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit. Intellectual property expert and law professor Michael Risch says it's an interesting decision on the band's part. "The allegations in the lawsuit are heavily fact-bound, as are the defenses," Prof. Risch says. "A motion to dismiss assumes that all the facts in the complaint are true, but the band's motion asserts that the facts are false." He says that band members usually always work things out. When you see lawsuits for copyright or other reasons, it's usually always heirs that are involved.
Interested in the Ethics of EdTech Apps? Let our Experts Help with Your Coverage
There’s been a lot of talk lately about EdTech apps. There’s a long list of benefits and advantages for students looking to succeed in these modern and digital times. However, with anything app-related – user privacy and what’s being done with all of your data that’s collected always comes to the forefront of the conversation. EdTech apps are a billion-dollar industry, and recently the experts from the University of Mary Washington were asked their opinions on the industry, the apps and privacy. Jesse Stommel, senior lecturer of Digital Studies at the University of Mary Washington, said that EdTech providers had a responsibility to do more than just legally protect themselves with terms and conditions. “The onus has to be on the tech companies themselves to educate the users about data security and data monetisation…say ‘here’s why I’m collecting it, here’s what I hope to do with it, here’s why it should matter to you’,” he said. For Dr. Stommel there was also still a danger when technologies were adopted widely across campuses and every student or lecturer was required to use them. “When certain companies become universal, staff and students don’t have a way to say ‘I won’t use it because I don’t want them to have my data’,” he said. The fact that certain products had become so widely adopted, such as plagiarism tracking software Turnitin, was another reason to be cautious about data protection, he said. Turnitin, which was sold last year for $1.8 billion (£1.4 billion), has been accused of monetising students’ intellectual property, since it works by checking submitted papers against an ever-growing database of previously submitted essays and detecting any similarities. “Companies can start off small and they say ‘we will be good stewards of this data, we’re small, we talk to each other,’ but then that company achieves more and more success and it doesn’t necessarily have the standards in place to maintain that,” said Dr. Stommel, speaking generally. “Then what happens when they are bought out? What are the ethics of the company that has purchased them? What happens to the student data then?” Dr. Stommel said that the most “moral” thing to do was for companies to collect as little data as possible but admitted “no company is approaching it in that way”. January 14 - TimesHigherEducation.com Are you a journalist covering how EdTech is now becoming a regular part of modern-day higher education? Then let our experts help with your stories. Jesse Stommel is a senior lecturer of Digital Studies at the University of Mary Washington and is an expert in faculty development, digital education and modern learning. He is available to speak with media regarding EdTech apps – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Expert perspective on a trade war with China and how it could impact a Trump presidency
Trade negotiations between the United States and China have continued to deteriorate over the last few weeks. In efforts to pressure the Chinese to make reforms to trade-related issues such as forced technology transfer and intellectual property rights, the United States has raised tariffs on nearly all Chinese exports. While there is a consensus among experts that these trade issues harm U.S. producers and must be dealt with, there is not universal agreement that a trade war is the best way to make it happen. Who will feel the effects? It is apparent that both consumers and producers in the U.S. will feel the effects of the trade war. Producers will not be able to absorb the increased costs from the raising tariffs and will need to pass them along to consumers. Consumers will begin to see the prices increase on a host of retail goods, such as clothing and apparel, toys, and home goods. Partners replaced? In addition, as the Chinese retaliate with increased tariffs on U.S. exports, such as agricultural goods, producers from other countries with lower tariffs are stepping in to take the place of the U.S. exporters. For example, Brazilian soybean producers are more than happy to sell their product to China at a lower cost. Once lost, it may be difficult for U.S. farmers to regain these important Chinese markets. A political price to pay? It appears that the effects of the trade war may hit the Trump administrations base, in agricultural and manufacturing regions, disproportionately. However, the administration may see the trade war as beneficial to Trump’s 2020 reelection campaign, as Trump is being perceived as being tough with the Chinese and holding them accountable to unfair trade practices. That appears to resonate with his base. However, it remains to be seen how long his base will continue to support this approach as both producers and consumers continue to feel the economic pinch of the growing trade war with China. There’s a lot to know about the short and long-term impacts of a trade war with China and that’s where or experts can help. Matt has taught business and marketing courses at Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota since 2008. Prior to Saint Mary’s, he worked in both the banking and the non-profit sectors, most recently with a non-governmental organization (NGO) with operations in more than a dozen countries. Matt is an expert in political and economic development and is available to speak with media. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Cloudhopper - What is it and should we worry?
Earlier this week, the Department of Homeland Security issued a warning that a Beijing based group of hackers -dubbed ‘cloudhopper’ was mounting a potential cyber-attack on American based institutions. The Chinese government has denied these claims vigorously and stated that China does not support hacking. So, what is cloudhopper? What businesses and institutions are most vulnerable? And does America need to increase its focus on cyber-security and digital threats? There are a lot of questions – and only a few leading experts who can help explain the situation. That’s where Cedarville can help. Dr. Seth Hamman is an assistant professor of computer science at Cedarville. Seth is an expert in cybersecurity education. Dr. Hamman is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Prior to seeing the fifth Pirates of the Caribbean movie, audiences are introduced to a flurry of previews for upcoming films -- big-budget sequels centered on blockbusting standards: warring apes, animated cars, web-slinging and hammer-bearing superheroes, and space-based lightsaber battles between forces of good and evil. Chris Hansen, M.F.A., independent filmmaker and chair of the film and digital media department in Baylor University’s College of Arts & Sciences, is available to talk about the market for big-budget sequels and the challenges for original screenplays. Is there any hope for the original story? “One of the biggest considerations in determining which movies get made, from the studio’s perspective, is marketing,” Hansen said. “That process is made much easier if the intellectual property already exists in the minds of the general public. People know who Batman is. People know who The Avengers are. Half or more of the marketing work is done. When the intellectual property is original, the studio’s marketing arm has to spend a lot more time and money acquainting viewers with the concept and generating interest.” “It’s hard to say what people are really interested in seeing. They say one thing, but they often vote differently with their box office dollars. This sometimes comes down to an economic decision for audience members. They have less disposable income than they used to, so they see fewer movies in the theater. And if they’re going to have to choose between several movies to see in an actual theater, they’ll often choose the one that has more spectacle, because there’s a feeling that it’s more ‘worth it’ to see something like that on the big screen, and that smaller movies won’t suffer from being seen on the TV in your living room.” Source:
