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Aston Institute for Forensic Linguistics (AIFL) is part of the project to infer authorship of uncredited documents based on writing style AIFL’s Professor Tim Grant and Dr Krzysztof Kredens are experts in authorship analysis Applications may include identifying counterintelligence risks, combating misinformation online, fighting human trafficking and even deciphering authorship of ancient religious texts. Aston University’s Institute for Forensic Linguistics (AIFL) is part of the AUTHOR research consortium which has won an $11.3 million contract to infer authorship of uncredited documents based on the writing style. The acronym stands for ‘Attribution, and Undermining the Attribution, of Text while providing Human-Oriented Rationales’. Worth $1.3 million, the Aston University part of the project is being led by Professor Tim Grant and Dr Krzysztof Kredens, who both are recognised internationally as experts in authorship analysis and who both engage in forensic linguistic casework as expert witnesses. In addition to their recognised general expertise and experience in this area, Professor Grant has specific expertise in using linguistic analysis to enhance online undercover policing and Dr Kredens has led projects to develop authorship identification techniques involving very large numbers of potential authors. The AUTHOR team is led by Charles River Analytics and is one of six teams of researchers that won The Human Interpretable Attribution of Text Using Underlying Structure (HIATUS) programme sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The programme uses natural language processing techniques and machine learning to create stylistic fingerprints that capture the writing style of specific authors. On the flip side is authorship privacy - mechanisms that can anonymize identities of authors, especially when their lives are in danger. Pitting the attribution and privacy teams against each other will hopefully motivate each, says Dr Terry Patten, principal scientist at Charles River Analytics and principal investigator of the AUTHOR consortium. “One of the big challenges for the programme and for authorship attribution in general is that the document you’re looking at may not be in the same genre or on the same topic as the sample documents you have for a particular author,” Patten says. The same applies to languages: We might have example articles for an author in English but need to match the style even if the document at hand is in French. Authorship privacy too has its challenges: users must obfuscate the style without changing the meaning, which can be difficult to execute.” In the area of authorship attribution, the research and casework experience from Aston University will assist the team in identifying and using a broad spectrum of authorship markers. Authorship attribution research has more typically looked for words and their frequencies as identifying characteristics. However, Professor Grant’s previous work on online undercover policing has shown that higher-level discourse features - how authors structure their interactions - can be important ‘tells’ in authorship analysis. The growth of natural language processing (NLP) and one of its underlying techniques, machine learning, is motivating researchers to harness these new technologies in solving the classic problem of authorship attribution. The challenge, Patten says, is that while machine learning is very effective at authorship attribution, “deep learning systems that use neural networks can’t explain why they arrived at the answers they did.” Evidence in criminal trials can’t afford to hinge on such black-box systems. It’s why the core condition of AUTHOR is that it be “human-interpretable.” Dr Kredens has developed research and insights where explanations can be drawn out of black box authorship attribution systems, so that the findings of such systems can be integrated into linguistic theory as to who we are as linguistic individuals. Initially, the project is expected to focus on feature discovery: beyond words, what features can we discover to increase the accuracy of authorship attribution? The project has a range of promising applications – identifying counterintelligence risks, combating misinformation online, fighting human trafficking, and even figuring out the authorship of ancient religious texts. Professor Grant said: “We were really excited to be part of this project both as an opportunity to develop new findings and techniques in one of our core research areas, and also because it provides further recognition of AIFL’s international reputation in the field. Dr Kredens added: “This is a great opportunity to take our cutting-edge research in this area to a new level”. Professor Simon Green, Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research, commented: “I am delighted that the international consortium bid involving AIFL has been successful. As one of Aston University’s four research institutes, AIFL is a genuine world-leader in its field, and this award demonstrates its reputation globally. This project is a prime example of our capacities and expertise in the area of technology, and we are proud to be a partner.” Patten is excited about the promise of AUTHOR as it is poised to make fundamental contributions to the field of NLP. “It’s really forcing us to address an issue that’s been central to natural language processing,” Patten says. “In NLP and artificial intelligence in general, we need to find a way to build hybrid systems that can incorporate both deep learning and human-interpretable representations. The field needs to find ways to make neural networks and linguistic representations work together.” “We need to get the best of both worlds,” Patten says. The team includes some of the world’s foremost researchers in authorship analysis, computational linguistics, and machine learning from Illinois Institute of Technology, Aston Institute for Forensic Linguistics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and Howard Brain Sciences Foundation.
#Expert Research: New National Science Foundation and NASA-Funded Research Investigates Martian Soil
Studies have shown crops can grow in simulated Martian regolith. But that faux material, which is similar to soil, lacks the toxic perchlorates that makes plant growth in real Red Planet regolith virtually impossible. New research involving Florida Tech is examining how to make the soil on Mars useful for farming. Andrew Palmer, co-investigator and ocean engineering and marine sciences associate professor, along with Anca Delgado, principal investigator and faculty member at Arizona State University’s Biodesign Swette Center for Environmental Biotechnology, and researchers from the University of Arizona and Arizona State University, are participating in the study, “EFRI ELiS: Bioweathering Dynamics and Ecophysiology of Microbially Catalyzed Soil Genesis of Martian Regolith.” This National Science Foundation and NASA-funded project will use microorganisms from bacteria to remove perchlorates from Martian soil simulants and produce soil organic matter containing organic carbon and inorganic nutrients. Martian regolith contains high concentrations of toxic perchlorate salts that will impede plant cultivation in soil, jeopardizing food security and potentially causing health problems for humans, including cancer. Researchers will look at different bacterial populations and how well they are able to process and break down the perchlorates, as well as what kind of materials they produce when they do. They’ll also look at different temperatures and moisture conditions, as well as in the presence or absence of oxygen. Students in the Palmer Lab will receive the simulants after this process, try to replicate it, and then test how well the perchlorate-free regolith is able to grow plants. A challenge the researchers face is how they remove the toxic salts, as well as if they can remove all of them. Palmer cautioned that the possibility that removing the perchlorates does not necessarily mean the regolith is ready for farming. “You can’t make the cure worse than the disease, so we have to be ending up with regolith on the other side that’s better than when we started,” Palmer said. “We can’t trade perchlorates for some other toxic accumulating compound. Just because we’re removing the perchlorates doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to make the regolith better for plants. We might just make it not toxic anymore. How much does it improve is really what we’re trying to figure out.” Even without perchlorates, there are significant challenges to growing crops in Martian soil. While researchers have grown plants in simulated regolith, the regolith is not good for plant growth, as in addition to a lot of salts, it has a high pH and is very fine, which means it can ‘cement’ when wet, suffocating plant roots. Being able to grow in the soil instead of using hydroponics could also provide a more efficient, cost-effective solution. “There is always the option of hydroponic growth of food crops, but with a significant distance to Mars and the lack of readily available water, we need a different kind of plan,” said ASU’s Delgado. “If there is a possibility to grow plants directly in the soil, there are benefits in terms of water utilization and resources to get supplies to Mars.” Some of the microbial solutions the team is proposing could also help with studies of soils on Earth. “The best soils for agriculture on earth, they were taken up decades ago, and so now we’re trying to farm on new land that’s not really meant for agriculture, if you think about it,” Palmer said. “So, as we think about ways to convert it into better soil, I think this research helps teach us how to do that, but it also inspires.” The research will also allow Florida Tech students to get hands-on space agriculture experience. “We’re going to be training the grad students and the undergraduates who are going to be the researchers who take on those new challenges, so I think one of our most important products are going to be the students we train,” Palmer said. “We’ll deliver Mars soil, but we also deliver, I think, a future group of researchers.” If you're a reporter looking to know more about this topic - then let us help with your coverage. Dr. Andrew Palmer is an associate professor of biological sciences at Florida Tech and a go-to expert in the field of Martian farming. Andrew is available to speak with media regarding this and related topics. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
Expert Podcasts: Ready for Career Growth? Advocates are Key!
Career advocates are critical to career growth. In fact, employees with advocates are 23% more likely to advance at work. Emory University Goizueta Business School's Professor Renée Dye joins to discuss the key role and critical attributes of advocates, how you can cultivate and attract influential players to meet your goals, and the impact of remote work on relationship management and organizational culture. For more insight and if you're interested in knowing more, then check out Renée's discussion right here on the Goizueta Effect podcast. Dye also has an intriguing blog as well - it's worth the visit : If you're looking to connect or arrange an interview – simply click on Dye’s icon now to book a time today.
New research highlights the economic importance of live music to Birmingham and the West Midlands
It found local authorities need to more explicitly recognise the economic, social and cultural value of live music and live music venues The report calls for dialogue between music stakeholders and government The research is published by Aston University and supported by the AHRC-funded Creative Industries Policy and Evidence Centre. New research by the Birmingham Live Music Project (BLMP) highlights the huge economic value of Birmingham’s live music scene, the vital contribution small independent venues make, the ongoing impact of the pandemic and what is needed to support the recovery of the sector in the city. The research is published by Aston University, with colleagues from Newcastle University and Birmingham City University, and supported by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC)-funded Creative Industries Policy and Evidence Centre. In 2019, the UK’s live music sector was valued at over £1.3 billion. After almost a decade of strong growth the sector helped push the UK music’s overall GVA from £3.5 billion in 2012 to £5.8 billion in 2019, the outbreak of the global pandemic brought it to a near standstill. This paper explores, through a local lens and a focus on Birmingham, the challenges stakeholders across the live music sector have faced in recent years. The research finds that small live music venues are the lifeblood of this financial, cultural and community asset for the city. In 2019 Birmingham helped bring 877,000 music tourists to the West Midlands, with a total cultural spend in the region of £252,000,000 (UK Music). But during summer 2020, the research published today found, Birmingham’s live music capacity of approx. 98,000 dropped by around 75%. This impacted ticket prices, the availability of events across the city, and the economic viability of shows – while some venues could stay open, they couldn’t make a profit. The report makes clear independent venues need protection and support particularly in the wake of the pandemic. It calls for dialogue between music stakeholders and government in advance of the 2025 review of the EU-UK Trade and Co-Operation Agreement to identify the best means of reducing friction and support for the efforts to improve the Agreement, for example work on border force training, expanding the number of checkpoints where carnets and Music Instrument Certificates can be checked, reducing bureaucracy for live event transport and haulage, examination of further measures to develop the ’dual registration’ system for specialist hauliers to ease pressure on touring. Dr Patrycja Rozbicka, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Aston University and one of the report authors, said: “Local authorities need to more explicitly recognise the economic, social and cultural value of live music and live music venues, including grassroots venues, to their region(s). “Environmental, health, culture and city regeneration strategies have to take account of the existing and huge potential contribution of live music to the city and region. “What is needed is a cross-policy approach, implementation of a Night-time Industry Impact Assessment and dialogue between local authorities and the music sector, where the recently launched West Midlands Music Board could play a role. “We would like to see the creation of information hubs to support local venues and audiences with initiatives such those undertaken by the Liverpool City Region including a Music Fund which supports activities of the Liverpool City Region Music Board as well as helping with funding applications and advice. You can read the full report here.
Everyone is keeping a close eye on the economy. Whether on a global scale or at the kitchen table - it's a topic that is at the top of everybody's mind these day. Simon Medcalfe, PhD is the Cree Walker Chair in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University and resident expert on the economy, and he shared his thoughts on where the economy stands as the final months of the year approach. Q: The Gross Domestic Product report was up, what should we take out of that? “The GDP was interesting because it was actually up. The first two quarters were negative growth, so the economy had shrank. This time, the growth figure came in at 2.6%, but closer reading suggested it was actually a worse reading then the negative readings we had because consumer spending by firms was essentially flat. The growth was seen in net exports or government spending or things like. Consumers were kind of pulling back a little, which is why earnings were a little lower as well.” Q: The economy needs to slow down a little, doesn’t it? “I mean, yes, if you’re thinking about the Fed, that’s what they are worried about right now, inflation, because the economy is so incredibly hot, particularly with regards to prices. They’re raising interest rates with the aim at slowing down the economy. Unemployment is historically very, very low, if not at record levels in different places, so we could probably sustain a little slowing of the economy without impacting the labor market too much and try to get this general inflation under control.” Q: The economy could use a little unemployment, it’s that kind of counter intuitive? “Some unemployment is not bad. Economist use to suggest in the long run, the natural rate of unemployment is about 5-6%. Now we have unemployment in the 2-3% range in places. We have a little bit of wiggle room to see that increase.” Q: What's the difference between frictional and structural unemployment? "Economist talk about frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment is more of a job match or job search problem. So it’s a lack of information. Structural unemployment is because of the changing nature of industry within an economy. An example being people working in textile manufacturing and it’s hard for them to go straight into computer science coding because they don’t have the skills. This is more long term than frictional and in some cases can be quite detrimental to regions and people.” Q: The Fed is likely to raise interest rate by .75%, are there signs of this slowing down? “I think they’ll start slowing that down over time, but I think their projection is about 4.6% and we’re like 3.25% now. They’re looking at all the economic indicators. Not looking at any one or two, but everything. They’re looking at inflation, and have different measure of that. They’re look at the breakdown of inflation like how much of it is due to the war in Ukraine, and what areas of the economy it may be impacting. They’re looking at the labor market, definitely looking at manufacturing output, etc. The one thing they don’t generally look at is financial markets. They would look at the housing market though and different sectors of the real economy, not the financial economy.” Dr. Simon Medcalfe is a highly regarded economics expert in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University. Medcalfe is available to speak with media regarding the economy and its outlook – simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.
High quality biodiesel produced from microalgae ‘fed’ on leftover coffee grounds Breakthrough in the microalgal cultivation system Could decrease reliance on palm oil to produce biofuel. Two Aston University researchers have produced high-quality biodiesel after ‘feeding’ and growing microalgae on leftover coffee grounds. Dr Vesna Najdanovic, senior lecturer in chemical engineering and Dr Jiawei Wang were part of a team that grew algae which was then processed into fuel. In just the UK, approximately 98 million cups of coffee are drunk each day, contributing to a massive amount of spent coffee grounds which are processed as general waste, often ending up in landfill or incineration. However the researchers found that spent coffee grounds provide both nutrients to feed, and a structure on which the microalgae (Chlorella vulgaris sp.) can grow. As a result, they were able to extract enhanced biodiesel that produces minimal emissions and good engine performance, and meets US and European specifications. The study, Enhancing growth environment for attached microalgae to populate onto spent coffee grounds in producing biodiesel, appears in the November 2022 issue of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Up till now, algae has been grown on materials such as polyurethane foam and nylon that don’t provide any nutrients. However, the researchers found that microalgal cells can grow on the leftover coffee without needing other external nutrients. They also found that exposing the algae to light for 20 hours a day, and dark for just four hours days created the best quality biodiesel. Dr Najdanovic said: “This is a breakthrough in the microalgal cultivation system. “Biodiesel from microalgae attached to spent coffee grounds could be an ideal choice for new feedstock commercialisation, avoiding competition with food crops. “Furthermore, using this new feedstock could decrease the cutting down of palm trees to extract oil to produce biofuel. “In southeast Asia this has led to continuous deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions.” The research was developed in collaboration with colleagues from Malaysia, Thailand, Egypt, South Africa and India. Their work was supported by the 2020-21 Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) block grant funded by the UK Research and Innovation (Aston University).
Aston University joins Birmingham Health Partners alliance
Aston University becomes second university member to join Birmingham Health Partners (BHP) BHP brings together excellence from University of Birmingham and four regional NHS trusts The alliance brings together translational medicine, encompassing health data and academic excellence. Aston University has joined Birmingham Health Partners (BHP), becoming the second university to join the city’s university-NHS partnership. BHP brings together academic, clinical and translational excellence from the University of Birmingham, Aston University and four regional NHS trusts: University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Trust; Birmingham Women’s and Children’s NHS Trust; and more recently Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust, the Royal Orthopaedic NHS Foundation Trust, as well as the regional Academic Health Science Network. BHP is known for its unique ecosystem which enables a full spectrum of translational medicine: encompassing health data, an established local health system, academic excellence and an extensive clinical trials capability – to help bring about answers to complex healthcare issues for the direct benefit of people worldwide. Aston University will be represented at board level by Professor Aleks Subic, Vice-Chancellor and Chief Executive of Aston University. While Professor Anthony Hilton, Pro-Vice-Chancellor & Executive Dean College of the College of Health and Life Sciences will join the executive group of BHP. Professor Hilton said: “We are excited to join BHP because it gives Aston University the chance to develop cross institutional collaborations under one umbrella of BHP. It provides an important forum for engagement with our regional NHS trusts and beneficiaries for both research, education and knowledge exchange. “We are keen to see how the alliance will support the funding of future research, enabling us to share innovation at the boundaries of each institutional expertise. “By having a unified West Midlands approach, we can harness key skills, expertise and our resources to have an impact on health in the region.” Managing Director at BHP, John Williams said: "It gives me great pleasure to welcome Aston University to be part of Birmingham Health Partners. “Alongside our NHS partners we will make use of our shared capabilities as employers, educators and researchers to positively impact the health and economic growth of our region."
Aston University and Partnership Medical shortlisted for knowledge transfer partnership award
Aston University and Partnership Medical (PML) have been shortlisted for an award at the KTP Awards 2022. The partnership has been shortlisted in the category of Best Knowledge Transfer Partnership for its work on a revolutionary automated cleaning system which uses synthetic chemistry to sterilise endoscopes, reducing risks of contamination to patients and lowering rates of mortality. A knowledge transfer partnership (KTP) is a three-way collaboration between a business, an academic partner and a highly qualified researcher , known as a KTP associate. The UK-wide programme helps businesses to improve their competitiveness and productivity through the better use of knowledge, technology and skills. Aston University is the leading KTP provider within the Midlands. The KTP Awards recognise the people and partnerships behind the UK’s most inspiring and successful KTP projects. At present there are more than 800 inspiring collaborations happening across the country. Endoscopes are long, thin tubes with a light and camera at one end. Due to the sensitivity of the materials and electronics they cannot be sterilised, opening up high potential for cross infection. Through their automated cleaning system, Aston University and PML achieved industry-leading levels of disinfection, reducing risks of contamination to patients and lowering rates of mortality. The automated prototype and new cleaning materials developed in the KTP produced astonishing results in clinical trials, with a simple five-minute treatment offering deep cleaning levels 1,000 times better than anticipated, providing hygiene levels far superior to those currently possible using conventional manual procedures Mark Smith, executive director of business and regional engagement at Aston University, said: "It’s truly wonderful that Aston University has been formally recognised as a sector leader for knowledge transfer programmes, reflecting the scale and quality of our work with business. Making the shortlist is a recognition of our continued growth and sustained achievements in the knowledge exchange area. “The Aston University and Partnership Medical project has resulted in a far more effective medical cleaning system that ensures that endoscopes are truly sterile, which will ultimately save lives. This is just one example of the University’s real-world support for businesses and their customers. “It is an honour to be considered for best KTP at such a prestigious event, especially when knowledge exchange activity is at a high, with over 800 collaborations happening across the UK.” Partnership Medical Ltd (PML), based in Stoke-on-Trent, are specialists in supplying cleaning equipment and consumables for flexible endoscopes with over 20 years of distributor experience. The company aims to become a leading manufacturer/provider for endoscopic departments in clinics and hospitals worldwide. The Aston University team who worked on the KTP included Dr Andy Sutherland, reader in organic chemistry and member of the Aston Institute of Materials Research, Dr Tony Worthington, associate professor in clinical microbiology and infectious diseases and member of the Biosciences Research Group together with KTP associate, Dr Thien Duong, an expert in synthetic chemistry. The awards ceremony will take place on Wednesday 12 October in Liverpool and will be streamed online for those unable to attend in person.
Research team aims to enhance security of medical devices
Tamer Nadeem, Ph.D., the principal investigator of the VCU-based MedKnights project, explained that the project’s focus is on the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT). Nadeem and co-PI Irfan Ahmed, Ph.D., both associate professors in the VCU College of Engineering Department of Computer Science, recently received $600,000 from the NSF’s Office of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure to put together a framework to improve IoMT security. IoMT devices are used in a range of diagnostic, monitoring and therapeutic applications. IoMT includes patient monitors, ventilators, MRI machines — even “smart beds.” Ahmed cited the internet-connected insulin pump is a good example of an IoMT device. Internet connectivity allows for both monitoring and adjusting the dosage remotely — functions that require a high degree of security for patient privacy as well as safety. All IoMT devices are potentially vulnerable to ransomware, denial of service and other malicious hacker attacks. Nadeem points out that IoMT devices have a higher security requirement than traditional IoT devices such as smart doorbells and smart thermostats in homes. “The most important thing in the medical domain is privacy,” Nadeem said. “For IoT devices in your home, you wouldn’t care that much about privacy, but for medical devices, it is an essential thing. You wouldn’t want anyone to know what your health conditions are, or what problems you might have had.” The work of the MedKnights group is important, as the IoMT domain is expanding; there is growth in terms of types of devices, number of patients using them and number of IoMT vendors. Nadeem added that the COVID pandemic and accompanying quarantine and stay-home orders increased the focus of medical-technology providers on the possibilities of IoMT. “Talking to some of the medical-device providers, I’ve learned that they are considering a line of products where they can remotely monitor patients on those devices, and they also can configure those devices remotely,” Nadeem said. Security is a large concern for the new generation of devices, because the current IoMT devices have been hit hard by hackers, he said. Security is an issue that extends from the individual patient to the institution. “Statistics show there are a lot of ransom attacks being done on the health sectors during the pandemic,” Nadeem said. “That motivated us.” The MedKnights team’s preparation for taking on the dragon of malicious IoMT attacks includes building a “test bed,” an isolated hardware/software assembly that Nadeem says will mimic the internet-enabled hospital setting. “In the hospital environment, there’s set of rooms. Each room has a lot of medical devices; they could be wired, or they could be wireless devices,” he said. “But there is no way that we can do what we want to do in a hospital.” The test bed will incorporate IoMT datasets based on typical device behavior, traffic and known malicious attacks. Nadeem explained that MedKnights will explore vulnerabilities of various IoMT hardware and software by subjecting the elements of the IoMT test bed to a range of attacks. “We will try to see in real time how efficient our technologies to monitor or detect these attacks, then try to intervene if we notice any change in the activities on the network,” he said. “Now, if the attacks manage to get into the device, we would like to also to start to see whether we can monitor these devices and observe abnormality or any misbehavior.” Nadeem said the next step is to isolate the source of fishy activity in the test bed network and begin to reverse-engineer the malware. He explained the group will work on understanding the question by looking for the “hole” that created the vulnerability. Ahmed said the MedKnights will bring undergraduates into the project through DURI, the Dean’s Undergraduate Research Initiative at the VCU College of Engineering. High school students will have an opportunity to join the team through a similar program known as the Dean’s Early Research Initiative, or DERI. DURI and DERI are just two ways of getting younger scientists and engineers involved in actual research. “For the last couple of years, I’ve been contacted by local high schools to host a couple of their students during the summer,” Nadeem added. “The students were really excited about it. We came up with some nice ideas about how to extend that work to their classrooms. As we continue this project, we will reach out to the schools, because we would love having a couple of their students involved.”
Inflation: Simple Causes But a Complicated Cure JULY 2022 We face a wave of strikes, intended to restore the purchasing power of wages in face of inflation. But strikes cannot succeed in restoring everyone’s purchasing power. In the near term, inflation’s impact on living standards can be significantly mitigated only by importing more and so increasing our trade deficit, financed by foreign borrowing. Unwillingness to do that means we are likely to prolong the wave of strikes and so suffer a bruising recession created by restrictive monetary policy. This will cause yet more damage to living standards. However, debt-funded importing of consumption items in order to maintain living standards is poor policy longer-term. It can’t stop the harmful redistribution effects of inflation that are already emerging. Most important, it doesn’t address the longstanding source of our lagging living standards – too little economic growth and economic resilience due to our failure to grow productivity. Without increased productivity, debt-funded consumption repair will cumulate to tomorrow’s fiscal crisis. Therefore, we face a very difficult policy challenge. We must act to support living standards over the next year or two, mitigate the social problems that inflation is already causing and, simultaneously, divert our priorities (and our continuing borrowing) to foster much improved productivity growth. Causes This is a simple story. Today’s inflation demonstrates that we are poorer than we were three years ago. The value of what we, collectively, produce and earn, has shrunk, relative to the cost of the things that we seek to consume. Inflation constricts our consumption options to what we can now afford. We are poorer for two reasons. First, because we produce and earn less domestically, and second, because the things that we don’t produce but import have become scarcer, forcing us to pay more to get them. • Brexit caused an immediate and seemingly permanent devaluation of Sterling, raising the costs of everything that we import. It also seemingly permanently reduced our exports to the EU, our largest trading partner. No new trade possibilities are similar in scale, so there is a long-term loss of income. Moreover, increased non-tariff barriers have raised the cost of imports from the EU beyond the exchange rate effect. • The pandemic has reduced the worldwide supply of all sorts of goods, therefore raising their prices. This is due to supply chain problems, the zero-Covid China lockdown, the reduction in UK output because a significant portion of the population is out with Covid at any time. Crops are left rotting in the fields because there aren’t enough domestic agricultural workers and, of course, no more EU farm workers. • The war in Ukraine has escalated the costs of energy and food grains. In the future it will propel redirection of domestic resources to the production of war material, which is not edible. Consequences Inflation not only makes us, collectively, poorer, it differentially distributes the pain. • Everyone in the UK could go on strike to try to raise their wages enough to maintain their real consumption. But as the pie has shrunk, that is impossible. The extra money people get will simply chase the same, smaller amount available and the prices of goods and services will rise further. If the ensuing price rises provoke further wage increases, we chase our tails. This is the wage/price spiral that the Bank of England fears. • Some groups have more wage bargaining power than others. Perhaps the railway unions can indeed hold the country to ransom and regain their purchasing power. But then others, less empowered than railway workers, will become greater losers. • Inflation causes a flight to real assets – houses, commodities – whose values float up with the price level. Because ownership of real assets is very unequally distributed, the asset-rich minority is likely to come out better than before while the asset-poor majority lose even more. The purchasing power of people living on fixed-return assets such as retirement annuities would be devastated by a wage/price spiral. Similarly, as interest rates rise with the price level (or even faster if the Bank of England has its way), debtors on floating rate loans will be hit hard. • Different geographic areas have different mixes of people who would be gainers and losers from a wage/price spiral, exacerbating our substantial regional inequalities. Cure Part 1: Near-Term Mitigation How is it possible to offset the fall in current consumption which is provoking the wage/price spiral? People can consume more than they earn only by borrowing. The key is how that borrowing is undertaken. Households could borrow from private UK lenders, or the state could sell bonds to UK citizens and give the proceeds to other UK citizens to spend. But if all they can spend it on is the total value of UK output, that pie is shrinking. More money from borrowing would only raise prices, that is, add to inflation. Total UK consumption can exceed the value of UK output only if the extra is imported. Because the imports are paid for in another currency, borrowing to pay for those imports must be borrowing from foreign sources. The debt (public and private) that the UK owes others must rise by the value of the excess consumption. However, consuming more today by adding to our overseas debt isn’t a miracle cure. • Not everything can be imported. Domestic services of all types are provided, well, domestically. GP visits and houses and hotel rooms and haircuts will cost more as a result of wage inflation, no matter the amount of net foreign borrowing. These price increases will continue to provide some impetus to a wage/price spiral and make it more likely that the Bank of England will end up pushing the economy into recession to stop it. • The problem with debt is that you have to pay it back, and in the meantime, you pay interest on it. More consumption today means surrendering a greater amount of potential consumption in the future. Only if there is strong UK productivity growth will this foreign debt repayment not cause significant future trouble. Sadly, the UK has lagged in productivity growth among advanced economies for many years. Cure Part 2: A More Productive Economy The policy most likely to maintain social cohesion in the near term, and greater prosperity in the longer term, is a tricky two-step. We need to borrow to defend most people’s consumption in the next year or two, but then switch the budget to support growth and productivity-enhancing investment. Unless we do this, our debt repayment obligations will grow to unmanageable levels and meanwhile our level of consumption will continue to shrink relative to that of our peers. Our political system has not been good at tricky two-steps. It can manage short-term stimulus, funded by debt. But for decades the UK has failed to invest sufficiently in physical, technological and human capital to create productivity comparable to our peers. The inflation crisis is a call to action. Not only to mitigate current deterioration in living standards but to build a modern economy that sustains rising living standards into the future.