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Deal or no deal – is Britain about to go bust with Brexit?
It’s pretty much deal or no deal. After a couple of years on negotiating, glad-handing, spinning and voting – Britain is now looking down the barrel of leaving the European Union with no deal in place. With two years to figure things out, it seems infighting and politics have help Theresa May and Britain in a stagnant stalemate when it comes to agreeing on any sort of term for the U.K. to leave the E.U with some semblance of a trade agreement in place. So, what can we expect in the days before April 12? What’s the hold-up now? Is the economy really in jeopardy and what will that mean globally? And is it a big deal? Is it a matter of renegotiating after the deadline or does Britain risk leaving an enormous amount of trade leverage on the table? There’s so much up in the air right now with Brexit - and that’s where the experts from Cedarville University can help. Dr. Glen Deurr's research interests include nationalism and secessionism, comparative politics, and international relations theory. Glen is available to speak to media regarding the rise of extremism – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Brexit, political rancor may cause long-term damage to British economy
Sandeep Mazumder, associate professor of economics and UK native, is available to comment by phone or email on the ongoing power struggle over control of Britain’s planned exit from the European Union. “Uncertainty abounds in the United Kingdom – both in Parliament, and with regards to Brexit. At this point, there are several outcomes that could result from Theresa May's proposed deal being voted down by the UK’s Members of Parliament," Mazumder says. "As it stands, the UK could be on course for a hard Brexit in March with no deals in place with the European Union. A lack of trade deals, in particular, will likely be very damaging to the British economy." "But, a hard Brexit is not a given either. Changes in the political set-up could open doors for other outcomes as the world waits to see what will happen,” says Mazumder. For now, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is most likely to harm markets involving British firms, he adds. Mazumder is an expert in macroeconomics, monetary policy and international finance.
Cybersecurity expert offers holiday shopping tips for protecting identity
Amid the many warnings this holiday season about protecting your identity while shopping online comes advice from Scott Shackelford, associate professor of business law and ethics in the Indiana University Kelley School of Businessand one of the nation's leading cybersecurity experts. "In some ways shopping online is getting safer," said Shackelford, also chair of the Kelley School's Cybersecurity Program in Risk Management and director of the Ostrom Workshop Program on Cybersecurity and Internet Governance. "For example, a few years ago it was relatively uncommon for many sites to use encrypted https technology, but that's become the norm. However, as may be seen by a quick scan of the news, data breaches continue. "The good news is that the cost of those breaches is going up with Federal Trade Commission and European Commission investigations ongoing into firms like Equifax and Facebook, and consumer patience is also wearing thin," he added. "One recent survey, for example, found that 20 percent of consumers would not shop again at a firm that experienced a data breach." Shackelford offers practical advice for holiday shoppers. In essence, there's a lot you can do to become harder targets for cyber criminals, including: Consider freezing your credit. You don't need it open unless you open a new credit card or loan, and even then you can unfreeze it for a short window to allow for the credit check. Install antivirus and antispyware software, use auto-update, and always enable multifactor authentication on all of your accounts. When using public Wi-Fi, use browsers like Tor to make it more difficult for hackers to spy on you. Keep all software up to date -- especially Windows, but also programs like Adobe Reader, Flash and Java, which are often convenient backdoors that can be closed through frequent updates. Use strong passwords of at least 14 characters, keep them secret, and change them often. Consider starting with a favorite sentence, and then just take the first letter of each word. Add numbers, punctuation or symbols for complexity. And be sure to change any default passwords on your new smart devices. Never turn off your firewall; it's an important software program that helps stop viruses and worms. Use flash drives cautiously; they are easily infected. In fact, one of the biggest breaches of U.S. military systems to date was due to a flash drive. Encrypt sensitive information on your computer. Be conscious of what you click on, both in emails and on the web. When in doubt, double check before accessing new files. Look for sites with "https" in the URL. Do not use banks or other sensitive websites that do not have the "s."
U.S. economy to remain strong through most of 2019, with output averaging 3 percent
Higher than expected economic growth in 2018 should continue into next year, with U.S. output averaging 3 percent and continued strong gains in domestic job growth. Indiana will continue to outperform the nation, with output growing at a rate of 3.2 percent, according to a forecast presented today by Indiana University's Kelley School of Business. A year ago, members of Kelley's Indiana Business Outlook Tour panel predicted that U.S. gross domestic product would grow by 2.6 percent this year and about 3 percent if tax reform were enacted. Indiana was forecast to see growth of 2.8 percent. Friday's release of GDP data for the third quarter supports their view that 2018 should end up with output growth above those levels. "The tax cut has produced an acceleration in the U.S. economy during 2018 to well above the new normal status quo of 2 percent growth," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "We expect output growth in 2019 to average 3 percent, but with deceleration as the year proceeds. By this time next year, quarterly growth will be heading toward equilibrium growth at a little below 2.5 percent." The story in Indiana and the greater Indianapolis area is very similar. "The state economy appears poised to see its strongest growth in the first quarter of 2019, after which growth rates are expected to slow but remain strong through the end of the year," said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. "It is most likely Indiana will continue to experience growth across the board -- in jobs, numbers of establishments, income levels, wages as well as gross state product." The Kelley School released its forecast this morning at the Indianapolis Artsgarden and will present it again at 11 a.m. today in Bloomington. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in eight other cities across the state through Nov. 28. The national labor market has exceeded expectations for two years now. A year ago, the panel felt the U.S. economy would create jobs at a monthly rate of about 175,000 and that the unemployment rate would fall to 4 percent. Instead, monthly job creation through September has averaged nearly 200,000, and the jobless rate has fallen to 3.7 percent. These job creation trends are expected to continue into 2019, with average monthly job gains of 200,000, and the participation rate -- which measures the percentage of the U.S. population that was employed or looking for a job -- remaining flat. "The labor market will be increasingly tight," Witte said. "The unemployment rate could decline a little, but firms unable to find workers will remain an important theme." Risks to the forecast include the effects of political uncertainty, further trade disputes and economic concerns being felt in other parts of the world, including China and Europe. The panel also expressed reservations about the impact of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. They expect the federal funds rate to rise above 3 percent by the end of 2019. Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics and author of the forecast for an 11-county area that includes Indianapolis, Carmel and Anderson, said the region is at full employment, and continued job growth will ensure it stays there. Economic growth in the area will average about 2.5 percent. "Communities around Central Indiana are finding it necessary and important to invest in projects that improve quality of life and provide amenities for residents," Anderson said, referring to examples of this in downtown areas of Indianapolis and Speedway and in Carmel. "The message to community leaders is clear: Investing in infrastructure to improve quality of life is necessary to maintain a healthy local economy. "Tax incentives are not sufficient to draw in businesses and residents. Bike trails, community centers and connected neighborhoods were once seen as luxuries, but now are important economic development tools," he added. "This trend will continue, especially if the economic expansion continues nationally." Other highlights from today's forecast: · Consumer spending will continue to grow, although at a rate less than in 2018. · Business investment will be good, but held back by trade concerns. · Housing will resume growth with a small boost from the aftermath of hurricanes Florence and Michael. Elsewhere, including in Central Indiana, 30-year mortgage rates, nearly a full point higher than a year ago, could dampen enthusiasm for new housing and constrain prices. · Government spending will be strong early in the year, but growth could slow significantly toward year end. · The trade balance will show increasing deficits. A detailed report on the outlook for 2018 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. For more assistance, contact George Vlahakis, associate director of communications and media relations at the IU Kelley School of Business, 812-855-0846 (o) or 812-345-1500 (m), vlahakis@iu.edu.
Cloudhopper - What is it and should we worry?
Earlier this week, the Department of Homeland Security issued a warning that a Beijing based group of hackers -dubbed ‘cloudhopper’ was mounting a potential cyber-attack on American based institutions. The Chinese government has denied these claims vigorously and stated that China does not support hacking. So, what is cloudhopper? What businesses and institutions are most vulnerable? And does America need to increase its focus on cyber-security and digital threats? There are a lot of questions – and only a few leading experts who can help explain the situation. That’s where Cedarville can help. Dr. Seth Hamman is an assistant professor of computer science at Cedarville. Seth is an expert in cybersecurity education. Dr. Hamman is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
Markdown Management and Shopping Behavior
Consumers face the trade-off of immediately paying tag price for an item or waiting for a time when it might be marked down but out of stock. In new research, Nikolay Osadchiy, assistant professor of information systems & operations management, Manel Baucells (U of Virginia), and Anton Ovchinnikov (Queen’s U) argue that retailers can better optimize markdowns by paying more attention to this particular type of consumer behavior. The researchers approach the consumer waitor-buy decision as a “multidimensional trade-off between the delay in getting an item, the likelihood of getting it, and the magnitude of the price discount.” Those dimensions need not be independent; for example, the consumer patience (or sensitivity to delay) could depend on the magnitude of markdown. By optimizing the model, they find that retailers can substantially increase revenues by offering larger markdowns than the current state of the art suggests. In the experiments involving business school students as well as Amazon Mturk participants, which is an on-demand, scalable workforce, the trio found that the expected revenue gains are between 1.5% and 2%. Source:
Today, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met at the presidential palace in Helsinki to discuss the relationship between their respective countries. Prior to the meeting, Trump cited national security concerns and trade as agenda items. Since the start of the meeting, the two presidents have also discussed the tension between the two countries and accused election meddling. At Augusta University, our experts have been following the historic meeting, and made the following observations: • Trump is correct in asserting the importance of having Russia as an ally. • The US is currently facing Russian cyberaggression, so how Trump addresses this issue has immediate concerns. • US posture in Syria is at stake. • It is important to keep this meeting in the context of “America First.” Trump will push messages at the summit that fall in line with his national security interests. What are the implications of this summit for every-day Americans? Will this meeting improve the relationship between the United States and Russia? How will this meeting effect the United States’ relationship with other European allies? There are a lot of questions to answer – and that’s where our experts can help. Dr. Craig Albert is an expert on American politics and political philosophy. He was recently appointed director of Augusta University’s new Masters of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies. Dr. Albert has experience with all forms of national and local news organizations and is available to speak to media regarding the Helsinki Summit. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview. Source:
Order for Racism. Racism Anyone?
When I think of Starbucks, I think of fair trade and “ethnically sourced” secured coffee beans, wonderfully laid out desserts and treats that my waist line dislikes, and cool stripped down funky folky alternative music playing in the background while I drink a hot delicacy I can barely pronounce. I think of people conversing, while others around them are seeping the juices of the Internet to fuel their apple laptop latest reality game apps. I think of people completing school or professional work away from their homes and offices. Starbucks has the ability in a sense to serve as an escape. But as a person of color, especially a historically marginalized people, there is no quarter given. Two Black men in Philadelphia discussing possible business ventures in a Starbuck were reminded that within the 21st century two separate worlds for Blacks and everyone else continues to exist within our world. The denial of bathroom rights to potential paying customers, an automatic response to call the police, and consequential police engagement and arrest without legitimate legal cause are representations of 21st racism. A similar incident has recently surfaced on video caught in a Los Angles area store where onlookers observed white non-paying patrons getting access to the bathroom while Blacks were denied. These discussed incidences are the simple echoes of a system of oppression that has existed for Blacks since the first Dutch flagged slave ship arrived in Jamestown in 1619. Source:
Trade wars – is America’s economy collateral damage?
There’s been a lot of tough talk on trade coming from Washington as of late. With debates and even some delusions about trade surpluses and deficits,it’s feed for the political fodder, but are the politics behind the talk negatively impacting America’s economy? President Trump says he is standing up for American jobs, but by threatening to tear up NAFTA and imposing billions in tariffs on China, is starting a street fight with America’s traditional trading partners worth it? The common folk might think so. However, those who control the markets on Wall Street think not. The DOW is down. A lot. The NASDAQ is also falling. That means a lot of money is being lost and the ripples might be felt by middle America in the form of lost jobs. So, what exactly happens in a trade war? Is America truly getting the raw deal President Trump is claiming when it comes to doing business with China, Canada, Mexico and others? What will come of all the tough talk on trade? How will it impact the economy? There are many questions and issues to consider. That’s where the experts from Missouri State University can help. Dr. David Mitchell is a professor of economics and director of the Bureau of Economic Research at Missouri State. He is also an expert in economic forecasting and understanding market trends and direction. He can address what these trade wars will do for America's economy and what, if any, effects they will have on the American people. Click on his icon to connect with him. Source:
Need to understand trade wars and tariffs? Goizueta's Jeff Rosensweig can explain. "These foreign nations that we're going to put these import taxes on, these tariffs, are not stupid," he tells NPR. "They're going to retaliate against our exports, and they're going to hit us where it hurts, which is often our farm exports." Source:
