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Holiday Shopping 2025: LSU Expert Dan Rice on The Impact of Tariffs, Tech, and Changing Behavior

Dan Rice, LSU marketing associate professor and director of the E. J. Ourso College of Business Behavioral Research Lab, shares insights on what’s changing, what’s driving spending trends, and what to watch for as we head into the end of the year. What do you expect for holiday shopping trends this year? Like most other years in recent history, most of the bodies forecasting holiday spending are predicting increases in total sales. The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting a growth rate of 4%, with sales totaling over $1 trillion. Other bodies like Simon Kucher, a pricing consultancy, project increases of over 7%, and Visa was projecting roughly 10% raises in gift spending. While these figures always vary between entities due to different specific formulas, it appears that some of the higher numbers were released earlier in the year, suggesting that later numbers may be reflecting a more up-to-date market forecast. Interestingly, this projected increase is happening despite many bodies, including the NRF, suggesting a decrease in planned per person spending. This suggests that the population growth of consumers might explain the increase in total sales for retailers, even if there’s a true decrease per person. We may also begin to see the impacts of tariffs on pricing in the holiday shopping season. This is supported by the Visa report, which suggests real spending growth of 2.2%, indicating that fewer items are being purchased despite revenue increases. What’s different about this year compared to previous holiday seasons? There have been several fairly unique situations. First, we’ve had the recently ended government shutdown, which impacted a lot of people and created a large degree of financial pain. Whether and when missed paychecks are made may still be unclear, and that has added a lot of concern for consumers. Additionally, the extensive but confusing levying of various tariffs has put the U.S. at an overall effective tariff rate of nearly 18%, the highest since 1934, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University. That adds substantial amounts to consumer costs and concerns, with 74% expecting tariffs to impact their shopping, according to Nerdwallet. We’re also seeing decreased enthusiasm for the holiday sales, particularly within certain demographic groups. How might the current economic climate affect consumer spending this holiday season? This is where we start to see the effects of what some might call a “two-tier economy.” The higher spending might be driven by the more affluent consumers who are more financially sound, while other data suggest that as many as 1 in 4 households are living paycheck to paycheck, making increased spending for them unlikely. We’re also seeing projections for certain demographic groups at much lower spend projections. Nearly 20% of the population intends to spend less, according to Visa. PWC is projecting spending declines of 5%, and GenZ responses indicate a 23% drop in planned spending. But there are many ways you split segments. People who are concerned about tariffs are planning to spend 10% less, according to PWC. People with kids will tend to spend more than last year, while people without kids will spend less than last year, according to NRF projections. So, it really does come down to individual-level financial and other factors. This may very much be a situation where the affluent drive the average numbers. Are any new shopping trends emerging for 2025 based on recent NRF or Deloitte data? One that has been picked up on by Deloitte, among others, is the tendency of certain (generally younger demographics like Gen Z in particular) to start using AI-based tools and social media not only for gift ideas, but also to find the best prices. Internet searches for “discount” and “coupon” codes are up 11% according to PWC, suggesting many consumers are concerned about saving money. Link to full story here.

Government Plays Catch Up After End of Shutdown

Dr. Anoop Rai, professor of finance at Hofstra’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business, was interviewed by Newsday about the lasting economic impact of the recent federal government shutdown, the longest in the history of the United States. Dr. Rai told Newsday that the period of economic uncertainty caused by this latest shutdown is a “blip” and he expects a quick rebound as government spending resumes. “In the broad scheme of things, everything will come back to normal with a slight dip in [gross domestic production], but the question is — was it necessary?” he said. “The disruption the shutdown has caused should be measured in terms of the pain it has inflicted on a lot of people.”

The Retiree's Guide to Market Volatility: Building Your Financial Safety Net with a Cash Wedge Strategy

Let's get one thing straight: the stock market doesn't care that you're retired. It doesn't care that you finally cleaned out that drawer full of ancient T4 slips, promised yourself you'd stop checking your RRIF balance daily, or told your spouse, "This year, we're sticking to the plan." The Market Doesn't Care About Your Retirement Date Markets wobble because they wobble. Headlines panic. Analysts disagree sharply — and confidently. And somewhere, a retiree stands in front of the fridge, wondering whether to sell everything or simply turn off the news. But retirement isn't a day-trading contest; it's a decades-long longevity project. The aim is to generate reliable income, maintain sleep-at-night discipline, and avoid the common mistake among retirees of saving too much while living too little. Your Retirement Income Defense: Sectors That Weather Any Storm Read the news, and you'll see a constant blizzard of rising prices created by our neighbours to the south. Not just little price increases, but if economists are right about what we can expect, it's best to “inflation-proof” yourself - before you need it.  But keep in mind, every downturn follows the same pattern: a few key sectors keep humming while everything else goes through a mild identity crisis. The Classic Defensive Trio for Canadian Retirees: Consumer Staples (groceries, household essentials) Utilities (keeping the lights on and heat up) Healthcare (aging doesn't pause for recessions) Research on past downturns shows these sectors experienced significantly smaller losses than the S&P 500 during selloffs. When markets tantrum, these industries act like the sensible cousin who says, "We'll get through this. Have a muffin." Canadian-Specific Additions: Telecoms (we'll cut many things, but not Wi-Fi) Pipelines (fee-for-service revenue, though rate-sensitive) Combine these with low-volatility or dividend ETFs, and your portfolio suddenly feels less like a roller coaster and more like a slow-moving Via Rail train: reasonably steady, unfussy, and you still get to where you're going. The Cash Wedge: And Why You Need One Think of your retirement plan as a three-layer cake: Long-term investments (stocks, dividend ETFs, balanced portfolios) Intermediate safety assets (short GICs, T-bills, high-interest savings) Cash you can actually live on (your wedge) Your Cash Wedge sits at the very front of the line — a 12–24-month cushion of living expenses held in stable, boring, absolutely-not-newsworthy places: High-interest savings accounts Short-term GICs Treasury bills Cashable deposits It's essentially the "dry powder" you need to ride through market volatility without panic-selling. Three Critical Risks Your Cash Wedge Protects Against 1. Sequence-of-Returns Risk in Early Retirement This is the risk that markets drop early in your retirement while you're withdrawing. It's the silent killer of portfolios. A cash wedge buys you: Time for dividends to arrive Time for markets to recover Time for calm to return 2. Emotional Decision-Making During Market Downturns When markets fall, too many retirees experience "sell-and-suffer syndrome": They sell low Lock in losses Delay recovery Reduce the lifespan of their savings 3. Portfolio Depletion at Critical Moments Without a cash wedge, every withdrawal during a downturn digs a deeper hole. With a cash wedge, withdrawals can pause while investments rebound. "Think of a cash wedge as retirement jiu-jitsu — using stability to neutralize volatility." How to Calculate Your Ideal Cash Wedge Size There's no magic number, but here's a practical framework: 12 months of essential expenses for retirees with pensions or steady income sources 18 months for those relying heavily on investments 24 months for anyone highly risk-averse or aging in place on a fixed budget This isn't a pile of cash sitting in a chequing account — it's a structured, laddered buffer. Why Canadian Retirees Often Resist Building a Cash Wedge I've heard all of these comments over the years from many retirees: "Cash earns nothing." Not true anymore — HISAs and T-bills offer competitive yields. "I don't want my money sitting around doing nothing." It isn't doing nothing — it's protecting your future income. "I've always been fully invested." Retirement changes the rules. What worked during the accumulation phases of retirement can be dangerous during deaccumulation. The Cash Wedge is not an investment strategy. It is an income preservation strategy — the most important one in retirement. Real-Life Example: The 2020 Market Crash Test Remember 2020?  Stock markets dropped nearly 35% in just weeks. Let's consider two couples with similar assets: Couple A : had a 2-year cash wedge Couple B : had none Couple A simply shifted withdrawals from their wedge, not their portfolio. Couple B sold their best assets at their worst prices — causing permanent damage. This is why I tell retirees: "The Cash Wedge protects your portfolio from you." It’s 12–24 months of living expenses kept in cash, high-interest savings accounts (HISA), short-term GICs, or T-Bills. It's not exciting. No one flaunts a 6-month GIC at brunch. But the emergency fund prevents disaster: selling investments at the worst possible time. It buys you time. It buys you calm. It buys you the uninterrupted ability to buy groceries. The Cash Wedge alone is powerful. But for Canadian homeowners — especially those whose wealth sits mostly in their property — there’s a second buffer that can dramatically strengthen your financial resilience: your home equity.  We'll explore that in Part 2 of this post tomorrow.  Sue Don’t Retire… ReWire!!! Want to become an expert on serving the senior demographic? Just message me to be notified about the next opportunity to become a "Certified Equity Advocate" — mastering solution-based advising that transforms how you work with Canada's fastest-growing client segment.

The Conversation: A UF neuroscientist explains the science of pain

Nobody likes to feel pain, but it’s something every person will experience at some point in their life. But why is that? I am a neuroscientist, and my job is to research why and how people feel pain in order to help doctors understand how to treat it better. What is pain? To understand why people feel pain, it helps first to understand what pain is. Pain is the unpleasant sensation you feel when your body is experiencing harm, or thinks it is. Not everyone experiences pain the same way. Pain is a highly personal experience influenced by a variety of biological, psychological and social factors. For example, research has shown differences in the pain experiences of women and men, young and older people, and even across people from different cultures. Danger signals A network of nerves similar to wires runs all through the human body, from the tips of your fingers and toes, through your back inside the spinal cord and up to your brain. Specialized pain receptors called nociceptors can be found at the end of the nerves on your skin, muscles, joints and internal organs. Each nociceptor is designed to activate its nerve if it detects a danger signal. One way scientists classify nociceptors is based on the type of danger signal that activates them. Mechanical nociceptors respond to physical damage, such as cuts or pressure, while thermal nociceptors react to extreme temperatures. Chemical nociceptors are triggered by chemicals that the body’s own tissues release when they are damaged. These receptors may also be triggered by external irritants, such as the chemical capsaicin, which gives chili peppers their heat. This is why eating spicy food can cause you pain. Finally, there are the nociceptors that are activated by a combination of various triggers. For example, one of these receptors in your skin could be activated by the poke of a sharp object, the cold of an ice pack, the heat from a mug of cocoa, a chemical burn from household bleach, or a combination of all three kinds of stimulation. How pain travels though the body When you fall and get a scrape, the mechanical nociceptors in your skin spring into action. As soon as you hit the ground, they activate an electrical signal that travels through the nearby nerves to the spinal cord and up to your brain. Your brain interprets these signals to locate the place in your body that is hurting and determine how intense the pain is. Your brain knows that a pain signal is an SOS message from your body that something isn’t right. So it activates multiple systems all at once to get you out of danger and help you survive. Your brain may call on other parts of your nervous system to release chemicals called endorphins that will reduce your pain. It may tell your endocrine system to release hormones that prepare your body to handle the stress of your fall by increasing your heart rate, for example. And it may order your immune system to send special immune cells to the site of your scrape to help manage swelling and heal your skin. As all of this is happening, your brain takes in information about where you are in the world so that you can respond accordingly. Do you need to move away from something hurting you? Did you fall in the middle of the road and now need to get out of the way of moving cars? Not only is your brain working to keep you safe in the moments after your fall, it also is looking ahead to how it can prevent this scenario from happening again. The pain signals from your fall activate parts of your brain called the hippocampus and anterior cingulate cortex that process memory and emotions. They will help you remember how bad falling made you feel so that you will learn how to avoid it in the future. But why do we need to feel pain? As this example shows, pain is like a warning signal from your body. It helps protect you by telling you when something is wrong so that you can stop doing it and avoid getting hurt more. In fact, it’s a problem if you can’t feel pain. Some people have a genetic mutation that changes the way their nociceptors function and do not feel pain at all. This can be very dangerous, because they won’t know when they’re hurt. Ultimately, feeling that scrape and the pain sensation from it helps keep you safe from harm. Yenisel Cruz-Almeida is a UF Associate Professor of Community Dentistry and Associate Director of the Pain Research & Intervention Center Of Excellence, University of Florida This article is republished from The Conversation's Curious Kids series under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article:

Worked Through Thanksgiving? That’s a Burnout Red Flag, Not a Badge of Honor

If your Thanksgiving weekend included answering work emails from a guest room, sneaking Slack replies between courses, or “just finishing one thing” while your family watched a movie, you’re not alone. But Craig Selinger, an executive function coach who works with high achievers, says it’s a warning sign, not proof of commitment. “More and more of my clients tell me they ‘took time off’ - but then admit they were checking in on everything from their phones,” Selinger says. “They come back to work exhausted, frustrated with their families, and confused about why they don’t feel refreshed.” He doesn’t see this as a time-management failure. He sees it as a boundary failure fueled by an always-on culture. “Old technology stayed in one place,” he explains. “A desktop in a home office was easy to walk away from. Now, work follows you onto the couch, into your in-laws’ living room, and onto the plane ride home. Unless you deliberately decide when you’re not available, the default is ‘always working, never actually off.’” After holidays like Thanksgiving, Selinger helps clients reflect on a few key questions: Did you actually have any fully work-free hours or days? Did your phone stay with you during meals and family time - and did you feel pulled to check it? Do you feel like you rested, or like you just changed locations while staying on call? “If the honest answers are uncomfortable, that’s valuable data,” he says. “It means your relationship with availability needs attention.” Instead of telling high performers to “just unplug,” Selinger works with them to redesign their availability ahead of the next holiday crunch: Setting clear out-of-office messages that specify when they’ll be offline and when they’ll check in. Agreeing with their team on what counts as a true emergency and which channel should be used for it. Creating short, non-negotiable deep-rest windows - for example, no work apps from 5-9 p.m. on certain days, or one weekend day that’s completely work-free. “When people see that they can set smart boundaries and still be respected and effective, that’s usually the turning point,” Selinger says. “They stop confusing constant responsiveness with real value.” With December’s year-end push approaching, he believes now is the time for high performers to recalibrate. “Treat this past Thanksgiving as a test run,” he suggests. “If you didn’t get the rest you needed, don’t just shrug it off. Use it as the moment you decide to draw a clearer line before the next holiday - for your performance and for the people who actually sat across the table from you.” About the Expert Craig Selinger is an executive function coach who works with founders, executives, families, and high-achieving students. He specializes in digital distraction, productivity, and helping people build realistic boundaries in an always-on work culture. Craig is part of the Executive Function Coaching Community at Offline.now

Georgia Southern faculty featured on prestigious top 2% of scientists list

Twelve outstanding active faculty members from Georgia Southern University were featured on Stanford and Elsevier’s 2025 list of the top 2% of scientists in the world. This annual list features scientists whose work has had the highest citation count and citation impact in their fields within a given year. This year’s Georgia Southern honorees represent a diverse range of disciplines, from physics and chemistry to epidemiology and business. Ten of the 12 faculty members were also featured on last year’s list. Vice President for Research and Economic Development David Weindorf, Ph.D, P.G., is among them and takes pride in seeing so many familiar names, and a couple of new ones, included. “Seeing names from so many different disciplines, both old and new, speaks volumes about our growth and consistency,” said Weindorf. “I’m so thankful for these faculty who relentlessly pursue excellence and truly embody growing ourselves to grow others in research.” Check out who made the list from Georgia Southern by clicking on the attached media release below: Looking to know more about Georgia Southern University and it's nationally recognized faculty — simply contact Georgia Southern's Director of Communications Jennifer Wise at jwise@georgiasouthern.edu to arrange an interview today.

Intellectual Property Law Scholar Waseem Moorad, Esq., Unwraps Crux Arguments of Smucker’s Sandwich Suit

A popular on-the-go sandwich is now the subject of a mega trademark lawsuit between two food industry giants. The J.M. Smucker Company, more commonly known as Smucker’s, recently filed a trademark lawsuit against grocery chain Trader Joe’s over what it alleges is infringement upon its iconic billion-dollar investment: the Uncrustables sandwich. Smucker’s seeks to obtain unspecified monetary damages from Trader Joe’s, as well as profit from its similar product. But beyond the novelty of the sandwich suit lies a complex case built around a lesser-known morsel of trademark law, says Waseem Moorad, Esq., assistant professor of Law at Villanova University Charles Widger School of Law and director of the school’s Intellectual Property Clinic. Professor Moorad, a former U.S. Patent and Trademark Office Patent (USPTO) examiner, recently discussed the actual claims of the lawsuit, and how both parties are preparing for a potential trial. Q. Since this lawsuit was filed, it has been a popular topic of public discourse, much of which has centered on the product—a crustless peanut butter and jelly sandwich—itself. Is that what this is truly about? Professor Moorad: Much of the commentary has been focused on the argument of whether Smucker's is permitted to have a monopoly of peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, or if Trader Joe's can actually infringe upon the Uncrustables product without necessarily using the actual trademarked name. While both discussions are legitimate conversations folks could have while munching on the delicious snack products, they are not necessarily the relevant legal claims at the crux of this lawsuit. Q: Before we get into what those relevant legal claims are, Smucker’s has filed dozens of trademarks in its 128-year history. What sorts of intellectual property do these trademarks generally protect? PM: Most of their trademarks filed with the USPTO are registered to protect against competitors from using words, logos, slogans, symbols and other materials that are linked to the brand name of the company, its affiliates, or its respective products. Well-known examples include Smucker's, Folgers, Jif, and, of course, Uncrustables. If a competing company has a brand or a product that has a similar sounding name or appearance, such as "Giff Peanut Butter," then Smucker's could sue that company for trademark infringement. That name is not only infringing upon a trademark that Smucker's has federal protection over, but also is in the same related industry (food products), within which Smucker's has protection. Q: But Trader Joe’s did not necessarily infringe on any trademarked words, symbols, slogans or the like. What, then, is the basis for the claims of infringement? PM: The issue is related to a deeper subset of trademark law, specifically the concept of "trade dress." Trade dress is the intellectual property associated with the visual and aesthetic characteristics of a product or its related packaging that allows a consumer to know with whom that product or packaging is associated. For example, Coca-Cola's name, which is federally protected, is well known as a registered trademark; however, the Coca-Cola bottle, with the curvy appearance where it gets slimmer in the middle, is an example of a registered trade dress belonging to Coca-Cola. If there was no logo or word mark on the bottle, the average consumer would still be able to recognize it as a Coke bottle. There are several trademarks that Smucker's owns that are related to the trade dress of its products. Smucker's isn’t alleging that Trader Joe's is copying any of the branding names of their products; they are accusing their competitor of mimicking the trade dress or aesthetic appearances, textures, and characteristics of its Uncrustables products and packaging. Q: What specific trade dress trademarks are they claiming have been infringed upon? PM: There are at least two registered trademarks that Smucker's is drawing legal attention to. In 2002, Smucker's had trademarked the image of an Uncrustables sandwich that has pie-crimping indentations or marks along the circumference of the sandwich, and in 2019, the company trademarked the image of an Uncrustables sandwich with a bite taken out of it. Smucker's argument is that the Trader Joe's packaging for a similar crustless peanut butter and jelly shows an image of a sandwich with a bite taken out of it, as well as the crimping along the outer edges. Q: How does one make a legal case out of something like this? PM: In order to effectively file a trademark infringement lawsuit, the plaintiff must not only show that their federally-protected intellectual property rights are being infringed upon, but also demonstrate that as a result of this infringement, the customer or consumer is being confused. Smucker's alleges that as result of Trader Joe's actions, customers are now confused over the product and are purchasing Trader Joe's peanut butter and jelly sandwiches thinking they are actually Smucker's Uncrustables sandwiches. Smucker's is of the belief that if the Trader Joe's packaging did not show pie-like crimped edges and the image of the sandwich with a bite taken out of it, confused consumers would not have purchased the Trader Joe's products and would have instead purchased Smucker's Uncrustables. It is this argument that will be the crux of the court cases to follow. Q: Assuming this goes to trial, how will the two parties prepare and what are some of the challenges for Smucker’s as plaintiff? PM: Part of the case on Smucker's end will be to gather customer feedback or testimony that demonstrates confusion in the marketplace as a result of the similar packaging and trade dress. Trader Joe's will focus on the fact that even though the packaging may be similar, there would be no reason or basis for a customer to be confused between a Trader Joe's-branded product and a Smucker's-branded product. As the plaintiff in this case, the burden shall be on Smucker's to prove the confusion element necessary to have trademark infringement. The Trader Joe’s product clearly says Trader Joe’s, and the chain has a marketplace reputation for selling its own products rather than other-branded products. The challenge in such a scenario will be to prove, despite this, that customers purchasing this product would still have gotten confused and either assumed that they were purchasing Uncrustables, or mistakenly believed that Uncrustables may now have a commercial relationship with Trader Joe's.

LSU Marketing Expert Dan Rice Available to Speak on Black Friday 2025

As Black Friday approaches, LSU has an expert available to break down what consumers can expect this year. Dan Rice, professor of marketing can speak on: • Emerging Black Friday consumer behavior and spending patterns • How inflation and economic uncertainty are shaping purchasing decisions • Shifts toward online vs. in-store shopping • Strategies retailers are using to drive demand If you’re working on Black Friday or holiday shopping coverage, Our team would be happy to connect you with Dan for an interview.